Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

I maintained all along that the Jaguars were going to win a game at some point. It’s very, very hard to go 0 for a season. Winless teams are 24-5 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989 so I’m not surprised at all that Jacksonville was able to go into Tennessee and beat a distracted Titans team. That shouldn’t change what anyone thinks about this team. They’re still one of the worst teams of the decade and easily the worst team in the NFL this season.

Their point differential is -176. No one else is worse than -78 (Houston, NY Giants). Football Outsiders has them at -62.3% in terms of DVOA. No one else is worse than -35.9% (Oakland). In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 64% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. No one else has a differential worse than -8%. Arizona isn’t a fantastic team or anything, but they’re at least average. They move the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th. In terms of DVOA, they are 12th. 9 points might seem like a lot to be giving with the Cardinals on the road, but it’s pretty reasonable.

Now that the Jaguars have a win, they won’t catch teams off guard as easily and they can get back to what they were doing for the vast majority of the season, which was losing to anyone and everyone by 10 points or more. They’re also in a bad spot after last week’s win. Since 1989, teams are 46-67 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-28 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. I’m not confident in the Cardinals because I hate laying more than a touchdown on the road with anyone (7.5+ road favorites are 5-17 ATS since 2011), but if I had to pick a side, I’d take Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 9

Pick against spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Last week: 19 (+3)

Record: 5-4

It might sound crazy, but if the 49ers lose in New Orleans this week, and the Cardinals win in Jacksonville, they’ll have the same record at 6-4. I don’t expect that to hold until the end of the season, but the Cardinals are a solid football team. They’ve beaten both Detroit and Carolina, two likely playoff teams, this season. Ultimately, poor quarterback play in the loaded NFC will probably keep them out, but they shouldn’t be taken lightly at all.

Week 10 Studs

RE Calais Campbell

LOLB John Abraham

MLB Karlos Dansby

Week 10 Duds

RT Eric Winston

LG Daryn Colledge

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Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-4)

The Texans have lost each of the past two games, but the good news is that they might have found their quarterback of the future. Case Keenum has completed 35 of 59 for 621 yards and 4 touchdowns in 2 games. The Texans have been better than their record all along. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. They’ve just been killed by turnovers (-11), inability to recover fumbles (41.2%), and return touchdowns (-6 touchdowns). Now with Keenum under center, things seem to be better. Again, they haven’t won, but losing by a combined 4 points to the Chiefs and Colts is almost like beating anyone else.

The Texans have had a brutal schedule to this point, as 7 of their 8 opponents are currently 4-4 or better. Between the 49ers, Seahawks, Colts, and Chiefs, they’ve faced 4 of the top-10 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier from here on out, starting with the Cardinals here this week. The Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. If you use rate of moving the chains differential to determine the line, the Texans should actually be favored by a little bit, before you even get into their schedule.

Two uncertainties are why this isn’t a bigger play. One is that Gary Kubiak is out. They might rally together and win one for Kubiak before he returns next week, but they could also look as lost as they did last week without him. Interim Head Coach Wade Phillips has struggled as a Head Coach in the past. On top of that, being the Head Coach could distract him from putting everything into calling plays for the defense. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Rick Dennison is now the primary offensive play caller.

The second reason is just that, going into his 3rd career start, the Cardinals could have enough tape on Keenum to figure out how to play him and expose why he went undrafted. The Colts did this to a large extent in the 2nd half last week. Keenum loves to throw it deep, but if you blitz him, like the Colts did often in the 2nd half, he doesn’t seem to be accurate enough to take advantage and he might even have trouble reading the blitz. Still, I like the Texans this week.

Houston Texans 20 Arizona Cardinals 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Houston +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Last week: 23 (+3)

Record: 4-4

Bruce Arians may have won Coach of the Year in Indianapolis last year, but the Colts have been much better without him this season (they’re actually beating good teams and winning by large margins, something they rarely did last season) and he has made some questionable decisions with the Cardinals in his first year there. Perhaps none is more questionable than his infatuation with Rashard Mendenhall. I can understand not wanting to give Andre Ellington a larger role earlier in the season because he hadn’t proven himself yet, but giving the plodding Mendenhall and his 3.1 YPC his starting job back after the bye, after Ellington rushed for 154 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries in place of an injured Mendenhall this week, is inexcusable. It sounds like that is what’s going to happen in a move that rivals Todd Haley keeping Thomas Jones as the starter over Jamaal Charles when Charles was averaging over 2.5 yards per carry more than Jones.

Week 8 Studs

RE Calais Campbell

MLB Daryl Washington

FS Rashad Johnson

Week 8 Duds

RG Paul Fanaika

C Lyle Sendlein

CB Jerraud Powers

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Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4)

The Falcons are 2-4, but they are better than their record. All 6 of their games have been close and all 4 of their losses were winnable games lost by a touchdown or less. They’ve also had a very tough schedule, as, with the exception of the winless Buccaneers last week, all of their opponents this season are 3-4 or better.

Their defense is horrific, one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate that is only 1/10th of a percent better than the last place Jacksonville Jaguars. However, they still have Matt Ryan, who is doing an unheralded good job leading this offense, despite injuries all over his receiving corps and struggles from his offensive line. The offense is moving the chains at a 79% rate and they get a boost this week as Steven Jackson is expected to return from injury to hopefully provide some more balance, though it’s hard to trust a 30-year-old back coming off an injury.

Still, I think they are definitely better than the Cardinals, who are moving the chains at a 71% rate and allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74% rate. The Cardinals are also in a bad spot as small home favorites before a bye. Teams who are favored by 3 or less going into a bye are just 11-30 ATS since 2002, an incredibly bad record.

This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here, as these two teams are 20th (Falcons) and 23rd (Cardinals) in my Power Rankings. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Falcons are in a bad spot and could be distracted by a road game in Carolina next week. Non-divisional road dogs are 47-72 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. Still, I like the Falcons’ chances of not just covering this small spread, but also winning the pulling the upset and winning game outright.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Atlanta +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Last week: 23 (-4)

Record: 3-4

I feel like I never have anything to say about the Cardinals. They’re not terrible, but they’re not great. They have a solid defense held back by an erratic quarterback behind a terrible offensive line and an inability to establish the running game. They will definitely win at least 6 games and surpass their pre-season 5.5 win total over/under. That’s not a surprise. Teams with over/under win totals of 6 or less hit about 2/3rds of the time.

Week 7 Studs

ROLB John Abraham

Week 7 Duds

QB Carson Palmer

LT Bradley Sowell

RT Eric Winston

RG Paul Fanaika

LG Nate Potter

TE Rob Housler

SS Yeremiah Bell

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-1) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3)

Ordinarily, the rule of thumb is to go against the Seahawks on the road. However, lately they’ve been a covering machine no matter where they are, including a 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 road games. Going back to 2007, they are 22-32 ATS on the road, but they have also never really had a problem covering as road favorites in that time frame, going 8-7 ATS. I don’t think you can go against the Seahawks just because they’re on the road here, even on a short week.

Ordinarily, the home team has an advantage on Thursday Nights because travel time cuts into prep time on a short week. However, that’s not the case when the road team is favored because the road team’s talent level tends to cancel that out. Better teams are at just as much of an advantage on Thursday Nights as home teams are. On top of that, because this is a divisional matchup, the short week won’t matter as much. These two teams are familiar with each other and probably spent extra time on each other in the off-season because they knew they’d be facing them twice in critical games.

Given that, I really have no idea which side to go with in this one. Using rate of moving the chains, I’ve calculated this spread at about Seattle -5, which gives us a tiny bit of value with the underdog, but not enough where I’m going to be confident taking them. The Seahawks are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cardinals are also playing a little bit better of late thanks to the return of Daryl Washington defensively and the utilization of Andre Ellington offensively. Also, this could be a sloppy defensive battle between two good defenses on the short week, so getting 6.5 points does seem intriguing. I don’t like to go against the Seahawks, even on the road, but I’m siding with the Cardinals, even though I’m not confident at all.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +6.5

Confidence: None

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Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Last week: 20 (+1)

Record: 3-3

The Cardinals are in an interesting spot this off-season quarterback wise. Carson Palmer has been as advertised. Unfortunately, that advertisement said “will move the chains, but kills you with turnovers.” Palmer is completing 59.3% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions this season and he’ll be owed 8 million in an age 35 season in 2014. The Cardinals, however, probably won’t have a high pick to spend on a quarterback and they don’t have an internal developmental option unless you count Ryan Lindley (don’t count Ryan Lindley).

Week 6 Studs

RB Andre Ellington

CB Patrick Peterson

FS Yeremiah Bell

Week 6 Duds

QB Carson Palmer

LT Bradley Sowell

DT Alameda Ta’amu

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Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (3-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-2)

Remember when everyone freaked out just because the 49ers lost 2 of 3 games. Good times. Losing 2 of 3 games isn’t a big deal. It’s just more noticeable at the start of the season. They’ve won the last two games by a combined score of 69-14. However, everything is still not as perfect as it seemed coming into the season. The 49ers’ 34-3 win masked the fact that Colin Kaepernick completed just 6 passes all game. They won’t be able to win the turnover battle by 4 every time going forward.

Kaepernick is completing just 56.1% of his passes for an average of 7.3 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions this season and the 49ers are moving the chains on just 69% of opportunities as a result. The problem is twofold. One is his lack of receivers. Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham remain out so Kaepernick has been limited to Anquan Boldin, Vernon Davis, and a bunch of scrubs. Boldin busted out of the gate on fire this season with 13 catches for 208 yards and a touchdown in the opener, but he’s combined for less than that in his other 4 games, catching 13 passes for 185 yards and a touchdown. Kaepernick seriously misses Crabtree, his go to receiver down the stretch last year. Crabtree totaled 66 catches for 950 yards and 9 touchdowns in 11 games with Kaepernick last season, over a third of Kaepernick passing production.

The other reason is he hasn’t been able to run the ball nearly as effectively. After rushing for 568 yards and 6 touchdowns on 75 carries in 11 games last year, Kaepernick has rushed for 154 yards and no scores on 27 carries in 5 games this year. This is a growing trend across the league as mobile quarterbacks like Robert Griffin and Cam Newton have also been kept in check on the ground this year as teams have had an off-season to study them and the read option. It’s something Kaepernick will have to adapt to and, while I believe he’s capable of it, it’s something I’ll have to see first. Kaepernick gets a tough matchup this week against the Cardinals, whose solid defense got even tougher last week when Daryl Washington returned from suspension.

The defense is, of course, very tough for the 49ers as well and things will only get better this week with Patrick Willis returning from injury. The 49ers have done a terrific job holding opponents to 14 points in 2 weeks without arguably their two best defenders, Willis and Aldon Smith. That speaks to their depth. While Smith is still out indefinitely, they should continue frustrating opponent’s defensively going forward.

Given that, I want to take the points and expect a defensive battle, but I’m going with the 49ers for a 3rd straight blowout victory. The Cardinals could be distracted with a Thursday Night Game against the Seahawks and not be as focused as they have to be to hang with a tough 49er team. The 49ers, meanwhile, have absolutely no distractions here with a trip to Tennessee and Jacksonville on deck. The 49ers should rip through these next 3 games going into their bye, starting this week. Also, teams are 25-37 ATS since 1989 as double digit dogs off of a win as home dogs. I’m not confident though.

San Francisco 49ers 23 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against spread: San Francisco 49ers -11

Confidence: None

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