Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-6) at Los Angeles Rams (3-5)

This game is complicated because both teams have quarterbacks questionable due to injury. In the Rams case, Matt Stafford seems highly unlikely to be able to clear the concussion protocol in time to start this week, while Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray could play, but would likely be severely limited mobility wise due to his hamstring injury, in which case the Cardinals may be better off resting Murray and playing serviceable backup Colt McCoy. The Rams also have a serviceable backup in John Wolford, who is likely to be a significant downgrade from Stafford, who is struggling by his standards this season.

Murray is also struggling by his standards this season and, overall, both of these teams have mediocre offenses to begin with, as the Rams rank 20th and the Cardinals rank 21st in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency. The difference between these two teams is on defense, where the Rams rank 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency and the Cardinals rank 26th. The Cardinals are 3-6, but they have actually been one of the worst teams in the league overall this season, benefitting from a +3 turnover margin, which is not predictive, and still struggling to win games, in large part due to their 29th ranked overall schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive. Overall, they are 5 points below average in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points worse than the Rams.

Both teams have mediocre offenses with injured quarterbacks, but the Rams are still the clearly better team overall due to their defense. Despite that, the Rams are only favored by 1.5 points at home in this game, suggesting these two teams are about even. My calculated line has them favored by 5, so there is enough here for the Rams to be worth betting, even with the uncertainty around both teams’ quarterback situations. There aren’t many games that are worth betting this week, so the Rams are actually going to be my Pick of the Week, largely by default, without another good option.

Los Angeles Rams 20 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (5-3) at Arizona Cardinals (3-5)

The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

The Cardinals are off to a 3-5 start, which is disappointing compared to last season, but I think they are still overrated, as they have had a +3 turnover margin and rank just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3.5 points below average. Injuries have also become a significant concern, with two starting offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson, starting wide receiver Marquise Brown, and feature back James Conner all out indefinitely, hurting an offense that has thus far been their better side of the ball this season and leaving them 6 points below average overall in my roster rankings.

Despite that, the Cardinals are 2-point home favorites in this game against the Seahawks, suggesting these two teams are about even. The Seahawks have been the much more impressive team this season though, ranking 10th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 1.5 points above average. It’s not as if they are significantly overachieving their talent either, as they also rank 1.5 points above average in my roster rankings. My calculated line has them favored by four points on the road, so we’re getting great line with the Seahawks at +2. If this was a full field goal it would be my Pick of the Week, but the Seahawks are still one of my top picks this week as long as they are underdogs. The money line is worth a bet as well.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: 2022 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-1)

The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated teams list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

The Cardinals are off to a 3-4 start, which is disappointing compared to last season, but I think they are still overrated, as they have been reliant on a +5 turnover margin to win them games, as they rank just 29th in schedule adjusted efficiency. Injuries have also become a significant concern, with two starting offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson, starting wide receiver Marquise Brown, and feature back James Conner all out indefinitely, hurting an offense that has thus far been their better side of the ball this season. Despite that, they are just 3.5 point underdogs in Minnesota against the 5-1 Vikings.

The Vikings came into the season as one of my top underrated teams, due to improved coaching on offense and better health on defense and so far they have gotten off to a good start. Beyond their record, they also rank 5 points above average in my roster rankings and 8 points higher than the Cardinals. Given that, we’re getting a steal with the Vikings as mere 3.5-point home favorites, as they should be favored by at least a touchdown, if not 10 points, considering how mediocre the Cardinals have played aside from turnovers. This is my top Pick of the Week.

Minnesota Vikings 30 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

Normally I like home favorites in non-divisional Thursday games because teams tend to be at a disadvantage when they travel on a short week to face a relatively unfamiliar opponent, unless they happen to be the significantly better team. As a result, non-divisional home favorites cover at a 63.2% rate on Thursdays when both teams are on short rest. However, in this game, we are getting significant value with the visiting Saints, which cancels out the trend that works in the Cardinals’ favor.

Both of these teams are 2-4 and have faced comparable competition, but the Saints have been the noticeably better team, having the slight edge in point differential (-17 vs. -28), despite faring significantly worse in the turnover battle, with the Cardinals at +2 and the Saints at -7. Turnovers are not nearly as predictive week-to-week as yards and first downs and, in terms of schedule adjusted overall efficiency, which is based on first downs and yards per play, the Saints are at -1.83, while the Cardinals are nearly three points worse at -4.72. 

The Saints aren’t healthy, missing a pair of starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, as well as top cornerback Marshon Lattimore, among less important injuries, but the Cardinals are far from healthy either. Top receiver DeAndre Hopkins returns from a 6-game suspension this week, but he re-joins an offense that just lost Marquise Brown, their top receiver in Hopkins absence, as well as a pair of key starting offensive linemen, Justin Pugh and Rodney Hudson. 

With Hudson out and Pugh and Brown going down mid-game, it’s no surprise the Cardinals had by far their worst offensive performance of the season last week against the Seahawks. Hopkins’ return this week will help, but the Saints also have a much tougher defense than the Seahawks. With all of the injuries factored in, my roster rankings have the Saints about three points better than the Cardinals, which is in line with the difference between these two teams in overall efficiency.

The Cardinals should have extra homefield advantage on a short week, but this line favors the Cardinals by 2.5, meaning that their homefield advantage would have to be equal to 5.5 points for this line to be appropriate, given the 3-point gap between these two teams. Even on a short week, that homefield advantage is excessive, so the Saints should be the right side in this one. I would need this line to move to a full field goal for the Saints to be worth betting, but if that happens, they would be bettable even in a bad spot. The money line is a good value as well, as the Saints should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

New Orleans Saints 24 Arizona Cardinals 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +2.5

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: 2022 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’re also without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

The Cardinals are off to a 2-3 start, but they’ve been worse than that suggests, as they have a negative point differential, -18, despite a positive turnover margin, +3, tied for 4th best in the NFL. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Cardinals rank 22nd. Despite that, they are favored on the road against a competent Seahawks team that has been competitive in all but one of their games. My calculated line has the Seahawks favored by a point, with the Cardinals being on the road and only having a slight edge in my roster rankings. The Cardinals are also in a tough spot with a short week next week, with favorites covering the spread at just a 42.7% rate before Thursday Night Football. I wish we were getting the full field goal with the Seahawks, but they’re still worth a bet at +2.5 and the money line is worth a bet as well.

Seattle Seahawks 28 Arizona Cardinals 27 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Seattle +2.5

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-2)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’re also without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

The Cardinals have started 2-2, but they have a negative point differential at -15, despite a +4 turnover margin, third best in the league. In terms of overall efficiency, the Cardinals rank 30th, six points below average. My roster rankings don’t have them quite as bad, but they are still a couple points below average. Ordinarily, the Eagles would be an intriguing bet here, even as 5-point favorites on the road, because they are legitimately one of the best teams in the league, but they’ll be without one of their most important players, left tackle Jordan Mailata, and also they could overlook the Cardinals a little bit, with a more important divisional matchup with the Cowboys on deck next week. I’m still taking the Eagles for pick ‘em purposes, but they’re not worth betting.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -5

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers: 2022 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (1-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-2)

A week ago on the early line, the Cardinals were favored by a field goal on the road in this game in Carolina. At that number, I would have liked the Panthers a lot. The Cardinals were at the top of my overrated list coming into the season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average.

They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’ll also be without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

As field goal road favorites on the early line, the Cardinals were clearly overrated a week ago, but we’ve lost a lot of value in the past week, with this line dropping down to even. It’s not necessarily that the Cardinals’ aren’t overrated still, but the Panthers may be as well, after picking up their first win of the season last week against the Saints in a game in which they primarily won because of a return touchdown and a +3 turnover margin, losing the first down rate battle by 8.89% and the yards per play battle by 1.69, which are much more predictive week-to-week than turnovers.

In terms of overall efficiency, which are based on first downs and yards per play, the Panthers rank just 26th on the season, which isn’t too far behind the 22nd ranked Cardinals, but I still have about two points between these two teams in my roster rankings, so we aren’t getting much line value with the Panthers on an even line. I’m still taking the Panthers for pick ‘em purposes, in part because the Cardinals could overlook them with a much tougher game against the Eagles on deck, but there isn’t nearly enough here for the Panthers to be worth betting.

Carolina Panthers 17 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: Carolina PK

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)

Going into the season, I considered the Cardinals among the most overrated teams in the league and a likely candidate to regress. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk. They’ll also be without top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games of the season due to a suspension.

Given that, I’m surprised to be picking them against the spread in week 3, but they are a good value as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Rams. The Cardinals’ week 1 blowout loss to the Chiefs seems to have completely soured the public on them, but they were missing arguably their best defensive player JJ Watt and key offensive lineman Justin Pugh in that game, which also came against arguably the best team in the league. The Rams, meanwhile, were similarly embarrassed by another top team, the Buffalo Bills, in week 1 and, despite that, they are still favored by more than a field goal on the road in this one, even with the Cardinals pulling the upset win in Las Vegas last week with Watt and Pugh healthy.

My calculated line has the Cardinals as underdogs of just 1.5 points. The Rams may be a little overrated because they are defending Super Bowl champions, as they aren’t the same team as a year ago, with a pair of key starting offensive linemen, left tackle Andrew Whitworth and right guard Austin Corbett no longer with the team, as well as top edge defender Von Miller. The Rams did add Bobby Wagner in free agency this off-season, but he doesn’t offset all of their losses. 

The Rams have significant injury concerns right now too, with starting wide receiver Van Jefferson still not making his season debut this week, starting center Brian Allen missing his second straight game, and several cornerback options unavailable. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are relatively healthy and played a much better game last week with key players back in the lineup. The Cardinals might not be able to pull the upset here, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or less and this should be a close game, so the Cardinals are worth betting at +3.5.

Los Angeles Rams 27 Arizona Cardinals 26

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders: 2022 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)

Coming into the season, I thought the Cardinals were one of the most overrated teams in the league, but their week one blowout loss to the Chiefs seems to have soured the public’s opinion on them, as this line shifted from favoring the Raiders by just 2.5 points on the early line last week to now favoring them by 5.5 points this week, a significant shift given that close to 25% of games are decided by 3-5 points. That’s despite the fact that the Raiders lost last week in Los Angeles against the Chargers. 

The Chargers are one of the better teams in the league and the Raiders won both the first down rate (4.87%) and yards per play (+0.25) battle, only losing by 5 because they lost the turnover battle by 3, which is not nearly as predictive week-to-week as first downs and yards per play, but we’ve lost almost all line value with the Raiders in this game since the early line last week, especially since the Raiders will be missing a trio of key players for the first time this season in this game, with talented safety Trevon Moehrig, top linebacker Denzel Perryman, and starting center Andre James all out with injuries. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are expected to get top interior defender JJ Watt back from injury. My calculated line is Las Vegas -6, so we’re still getting some line value going against the Cardinals, but not nearly enough to be at all confident in the banged up Raiders.

Las Vegas Raiders 33 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -5.5

Confidence: None

Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

The Cardinals are one of my top picks to regress this season. They went 11-6 last season, but needed a +12 turnover margin to get to that record, which is not predictive, and they ranked just 14th in overall efficiency, barely above average. They also got a lot worse this off-season, losing starting wide receiver Christian Kirk, top edge defender Chandler Jones, top off ball linebacker Jordan Hicks, top cornerback Robert Alford, and their most efficient running back Chase Edmonds, with their only major addition being former Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown, who cost the Cardinals their first round pick in a trade and who isn’t a significant upgrade on Christian Kirk.

Making matters worse, the Cardinals will be even further short-handed this week, missing top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins due to suspension and his replacement Rondale Moore due to injury, as well as injured starting cornerback Trayvon Mullen, while starting tight end Zach Ertz, top interior defender JJ Watt, starting cornerback Byron Murphy, and starting left guard Justin Pugh all legitimately questionable for this team. On top of that, the Cardinals are facing a Chiefs team that should be among the best in the league again. 

The Chiefs losing top wide receiver Tyreek Hill this off-season got a lot of attention, but they did a good job reloading at the position, giving them a much deeper group than a year ago, even if it lacks a true #1 receiver, while their defense figures to be much better than their 29th ranked finish in defensive efficiency a year ago. Most of their defensive struggles were concentrated early last season when they had significant injury problems and, once they turned it around defensively, the Chiefs went on to win 11 of their final 13 games, with their only two losses coming against the AFC winning Bengals. 

I expect the Chiefs to continue being one of the best teams in the league even without Hill and have them calculated as 10-point favorites in Arizona against a Cardinals team that was likely to be below average this season even before all of their recent injuries. This line has moved up to Kansas City -6 due to the Cardinals’ injury situation, but it hasn’t moved high enough and we’re still getting enough line value with the Chiefs for them to be worth betting. The only thing preventing this from being a bigger play is that the Chiefs have to play again four days after this game in a huge divisional matchup against the Chargers on Thursday Night Football and could overlook this game a little bit as a result, with favorites covering at just a 44.0% rate before Thursday Night Football historically. 

That might not matter as much in week 1 though, especially since Andy Reid coached teams typically do well with extra time to plan, going 36-22-1 ATS in that spot all time, which might cancel out the other trend. Depending on who ultimately is ruled out for the Cardinals and where this line ends up, I may consider increasing this bet even with the Chiefs potentially in an unfavorable situation. It’s worth locking in a bet at -6 even before knowing the final injury report because the Chiefs should cover either way and this line is likely to rise before gametime.

Update: Watt is expected to be out for the Cardinals, which is their most important absence, but this line is still at 6 in some places, so I want to lock in a bigger bet.

Kansas City Chiefs 38 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6

Confidence: High