Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 28 (-1)

Record: 4-9

Net points per drive: -0.43 (28th)

DVOA: -18.5% (27th)

Weighted DVOA: -24.6% (28th)

Will the Cardinals complete the 4-0 to 4-12 transition? I think so. Their remaining games are against Detroit, Chicago, and San Francisco and they don’t really look close to having things together, especially offensively.

Studs

None

Duds

QB John Skelton: 11 of 22 for 74 yards, 4 interceptions, 1 hit as thrown, 16.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 23 drop backs (1 sack, 1 of 3, 1 interception, 1 hit as thrown)

QB Ryan Lindley: 8 of 17 for 59 yards, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 59.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 19 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 of 6, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown)

LT Nate Potter: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

LG Daryn Colledge: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

RG Adam Snyder: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

RB William Powell: Rushed for 20 yards (16 after contact) on 5 attempts, caught 2 passes for 13 yards on 3 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 6 pass block snaps, 3 kickoff returns for 68 yards

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 1 pass for 2 yards on 11 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 3 interceptions when thrown to

LE Darnell Dockett: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles

MLB Daryl Washington: 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles, 1 penalty, allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 1 attempt

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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks

Arizona Cardinals (4-8) at Seattle Seahawks (7-5)

The Seahawks were able to get a rare road win in Chicago last week after face planting in Miami the week before thanks to the road dogs after a road loss trend. This week, it could potentially hurt their ability to win at home because the Cardinals are in that spot. They lost as road dogs in New York against the Jets last week and are now road dogs here. Road dogs off a road loss are 85-48 ATS since 2008.

I say potentially because the Seahawks are so dominant at home, as opposed to on the road. Since the start of the 2005 season, they are 45-20 ATS at home, as opposed to 23-43 ATS on the road. They are 5-0 ATS there this year with 3 straight up wins as dogs against Dallas, Green Bay, and New England. This is the first time they’ve laid 10 or more at home, but they are actually 5-0 ATS in that spot since 2005 and 15-3 ATS as touchdown plus home favorites. For the record, they are 5-1 ATS when their opponent is dogs after a road loss since 2005, which kind of throws that trend out the window.

We are getting line value with the Cardinals. The Seahawks rank 10th in net points per drive at 0.31, while the Cardinals rank 21st at -0.18. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 3 points for home field, you get that Seattle should be 8.5 point favorites, rather than 10 point favorites.

However, it’s important to add a human element to things like this and I can shoot that down with the human element in 3 ways. One, I like to look at DVOA to compare to net points per drive. DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. Seattle ranks 4th in DVOA, including 3rd in weighted, while Arizona ranks 24th in DVOA, and 25th in weighted. That’s a much, much bigger difference than where these two teams are in net points per drive.

Second, the reason Arizona is better in regular DVOA than weighted DVOA, which weights recent games more heavily, is that, in case you haven’t noticed, they’re not playing so well lately. They’ve lost 8 straight and are nowhere near the team they were in the first 4 weeks of the season. Their defense isn’t playing nearly as well as it once was and offensively, they really miss Kevin Kolb which is saying something.

Ryan Lindley has been benched for John Skelton in this one, but I don’t know how much that helps. Remember, Skelton is completing 54.7% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA and 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions this season. In his career, he completes 53.3% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions.

In the Atlanta game, he was 2 of 7 for 6 yards before becoming the first and probably only quarterback in NFL history to get benched for Ryan Lindley. He’s an upgrade over Lindley, but that’s not saying much because I’m not sure I’m not an upgrade over Ryan Lindley. Lindley and Jimmy Clausen should have a suck off this offseason for charity. Skelton won’t have much success at all against Seattle’s awesome defense, especially not in Seattle, even with Brandon Browner suspended. That suspension will matter down the line against capable quarterbacks, but not so much in this one.

The third reason that 8.5 point line is invalid is because that assumes we use the standard 3 points for home field, which I argue we shouldn’t for Seattle’s games because of their home/road disparity. That 3 points come from the average amount an NFL team outscores its opponent at home, 3 points. Since 2005, the Seahawks outscore opponents by 6 points on average at home and get outscored by 6 points on the road.

For this reason, they outscore opponents by about 3 points per game ATS at home and get outscored by 3 points per game ATS on the road. That whole disparity could be closed if we used 6 points for home field for their games, in both directions, both home and away, which is why I do. Using that, we get a real line of Seattle -11.5, which gives us line value with Seattle, before even taking into account DVOA and Arizona’s awful quarterback situation and complete lack of momentum.

NFC West divisional games tend to be won by the home team and covered by the home favorite anyway. This makes sense. NFC West is 107-80 ATS at home since 2007. No division has as big of a home/road disparity as the NFC West. Seattle is a big part of why, but not the only reason. As you can imagine, when NFC West teams meet, the home team generally covers, especially as favorites, going 23-14 ATS in this spot since 2007.

As home favorites of more than a touchdown, teams are 12-5 ATS and 7-2 ATS as home favorites of double digits. The Seahawks are 11-4 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2005, 8-2 ATS as favorites of more than a touchdown, and 3-0 ATS as double digit favorites. NFC West divisional games also tend to go under the total, as the under has gone 80-54 since 2007, so I like the under, as well, in this one.

One trend is also in Arizona’s favor as teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer, but I can’t take Arizona here. The Seahawks are way too good at home and John Skelton is going to have a very, very tough time putting points on the board here against this Seahawks defense at home. I don’t like to lay more than a touchdown for a big play, but Seattle should still be the right side. They’re also my obvious survivor choice this week as I have yet to use them.

Public lean: Seahawks (50% range)

Sharps lean: ARI 16 SEA 2

Final thoughts: Sharps rarely back a double digit favorite. This is a little concerning, but then again, the Sharps haven’t had a good 3 week stretch either. I’d be more worried if my confidence level in the sharps was what it was a few weeks ago.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Arizona Cardinals 6 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, TB)

Pick against spread: Seattle -10 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 36 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 28 (+0)

Record: 4-8

Net points per drive: -0.18 (22nd)

DVOA: -9.4% (24th)

Weighted DVOA: -10.8% (25th)

Studs

RT Bobby Massie: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps

LG Daryn Colledge: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 3 attempts

CB William Gay: Allowed 3 catches for 17 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes

FS Kerry Rhodes: Allowed 2 catches for 5 yards on 5 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Duds

QB Ryan Lindley: 10 of 31 for 72 yards and an interception, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 1 drop, 37.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 33 drop backs (2 sacks, 0 of 5, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Chris Wells: Rushed for 22 yards (16 after contact) on 15 attempts, 3 broken tackles, allowed 1 sack on 2 pass block snaps

WR Michael Floyd: Caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 8 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

MLB Paris Lenon: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 12 yards on 1 attempt

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Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jets

Arizona Cardinals (4-7) at New York Jets (4-7)

I’ve started using net points per drive to compute real line. It makes sense. Net points per drive measures how much you outscore opponents by on a given drive and if you take the difference between the two team’s net points per drive and you multiply that by the average number of drives per game, 11, and add 3 points either way for home field, you can get a pretty good estimate of what the line should look like.

There are other things to consider, like strength of schedule, which is why I like to look at the DVOAs, which are net points per drive based, but take into account strength of schedule, among other things. Trends and other human element type things are also very important, but net points per drive is a good starting point.

The Jets rank 27th in the league in net points per drive at -0.64, while the Cardinals rank 21st at -0.19. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 and add 3 points to the Jets side for home field advantage, you get that Arizona should be favored here by a point. However, here’s where you need to take other stuff into account. Arizona is 22nd in DVOA, while the Jets are 26th, which closes the gap some.

The Cardinals have also lost 7 straight and are on their 3rd and worst quarterback of the season. They were actually decent when Kevin Kolb was their quarterback, but then John Skelton came in when he got hurt and he was terrible, getting benched for 6th round rookie Ryan Lindley, who is one of the worst quarterbacks I’ve ever seen at the NFL level, even worse than Skelton.

At San Diego State, he never completed more than 57% of his passes in a season against weak competition. He’s got the tools, but I don’t know how he ever could have been considered to potentially be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Against Atlanta after taking over for Skelton, he went 9 of 20 for 64 yards and then against St. Louis, he went 31 of 52 for 312 yards, but with 4 interceptions to no touchdowns and his interceptions were horrible, if you watch the replays, with two going for touchdowns.

The Cardinals also suffered a serious injury on the offensive line, losing center Lyle Sendlein, who was really their only competent offensive lineman. About Sendlein before the season, left guard Daryn Colledge said, “he would be the worst one [to lose] probably on the whole football team. He is the key cog, especially for this offensive line. He is the captain and he is our guy,” before saying the “wheels might come off” without him.

I think that’s a pretty accurate assessment and if you can believe it, this offensive line can actually get worse. Right now, they have the league’s worst pass blocking efficiency rating and rank dead last in run blocking. The only reason they aren’t starting 3 players who rank dead last at their respective positions on ProFootballFocus is because they benched left tackle D’Anthony Baptiste for 7th round rookie Nate Potter, who hasn’t been much better. Potter starting makes 2 rookies starting for them, as right tackle Bobby Massie is a 4th round rookie. And Sendlein’s loss makes them worse.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot trends wise. They are non-conference road dogs before being divisional road dogs. Teams are a ridiculous 11-30 ATS in this spot since 2002. They go to Seattle next week. They also have to travel across the country for a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast as a West Coast team, which is normally very tough for a team, though the Cardinals have strangely had success doing this over the past couple years, upsetting the Patriots and Eagles in major upset fashion and almost doing the same to the Ravens.

The Jets, meanwhile, are actually in a good spot after being blown out by the Patriots last week. They’ve had 10 days to rest and teams are 117-97 ATS on a Sunday after a Thursday Night game since 1989. Teams tend to do well after losses by 30 or more, going 83-55 ATS in this spot since 2002, including 27-18 ATS when the previous game was divisional. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed coming off a blowout loss and if history is any indication, the Jets will definitely play well in this spot.

The Jets always seem to be at their best when they’re at their lowest point, especially this season. Remember when neither their 1st nor 2nd team offense scored a touchdown all preseason and they were the laughing stock of the football world and then week 1 they crushed the Bills? Remember when they got shut out by the 49ers and then covered in 3 straight weeks? Remember when they were 3-6, having lost 2 straight by 21+ and they had the whole “someone in the locker room called Tim Tebow terrible” controversy, and then they upset the Rams in St. Louis?

This is a similar situation. All they’ve heard all week is about how much they suck and about how Mark Sanchez ran into a butt. I think they bounce back in a similar fashion. It’s not a big play on the Jets, but they should be the right side. I just really hate taking the Jets as 5 point favorites over anyone. This is dangerously close to being six and six territory (teams who finished 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as 6 point favorites or more). I don’t understand how anyone can make a big play on this game. It’s either Jets -5 or Ryan Lindley? PUKE.

Public lean: NY Jets (60% range)

Sharps lean: NYJ 12 ARZ 4

Final update: No change. The Jets are at -6 in some places in which case I would take the Cardinals for a unit on principle because of the six and six rule, but I can’t bet heavily on either side. That would be nuts.

New York Jets 16 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against spread: NY Jets -4.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 22 (-6)

Record: 4-7

Net points per drive: -0.19 (22nd)

DVOA: -7.9% (22nd)

Weighted DVOA: -8.7% (22nd)

Tier 7: Terrible

Studs

LG Daryn Colledge: Did not allow a pressure on 55 pass block snaps

RG Adam Snyder: Did not allow a pressure on 55 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

CB Patrick Peterson: Did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 4 punt returns for 59 yards

NT Dan Williams: 4 solo tackles, 4 stops, did not record a pressure on 7 pass rush snaps

LOLB Quentin Groves: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

P Dave Zastudil: 6 punts for 289 yards, 1 inside 20, 4 returns for 18 yards, 45.2 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Ryan Lindley: 31 of 52 for 312 yards and 4 interceptions, 2 batted passes, 5 drops, 67.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 54 drop backs (2 sacks, 5 of 9, 1 drop)

RB Beanie Wells: Rushed for 48 yards (17 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 17 attempts, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 5 pass block snaps

LT Nate Potter: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 55 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 3 passes for 31 yards on 12 attempts on 54 pass snaps, 4.7 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 3 interceptions when thrown to

CB William Gay: Allowed 2 catches for 60 yards on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle

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St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Arizona Cardinals (4-6)

The rule of thumb in NFC West divisional matchups is to take the home team. Since 2007, no division covers more often at home than the NFC West, going 106-79 ATS at home, and conversely no team fails to cover more often on the road, going 74-102 ATS. Given that, it’s reasonable to think that when these teams get together and play a divisional contest, the home team generally covers and they do, going 38-26 ATS since 2007. NFC West divisional games have also gone under the total 40 times out of 64 since 2007, so I like the under as well.

However, this week it might not be a good idea to take Arizona, the home favorite. This is a sandwich game for them, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs. Teams are 58-81 ATS in this spot since 2008. The logic is that good teams in that situation will see this game as an easy rest game to get back on track and not take their opponent seriously and that bad teams don’t deserve to be favorites in the first place. Arizona is the latter.

They might not overlook divisional St. Louis and in fact, when the middle game is divisional and the two “bread” games are non-divisional, the trend is just 12-16 ATS since 2008, 22-25 ATS going back to 2002 to get a larger sample size. However, that wouldn’t be why they would fail to cover because they are a bad team and bad teams shouldn’t be favored. Home favorites are 27-38 ATS since 2008 before being road dogs in two straight and the Cardinals go to the Jets and Seahawks in their next 2.

In fact, unless they’re favored at home week 15 against Detroit, Arizona might not be favored the rest of the way (5 games). Favorites before being dogs in 5 or more straight are 11-24 ATS since 2008. Favorites after being dogs in 4 straight are also 22-31 ATS since 2008, a situation Arizona is in. All of these are ways of showing that bad teams struggle to cover as favorites.

We aren’t really getting any line value at first glance. Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be St. Louis -2 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Arizona -4.5 and when you average those out, you get right around the Arizona -1.5 this line really is at. However, that doesn’t take into account that Arizona has no momentum and has been playing terribly ever since Kevin Kolb got hurt. John Skelton has been benched for Ryan Lindley, a 6th round rookie who might even be worse and he’s favored by 1.5 points. That’s the definition of a bad team being favored.

It also doesn’t take into account that St. Louis is getting healthier on the offensive line. Rodger Saffold returned two weeks ago and solidified the left tackle position. Scott Wells, a Pro-Bowl caliber center, returns this week, which will move Robert Turner, who has actually played well in his absence, to left guard. Assuming Wells is truly healthy and Turner continues to play well at left guard, this line really only has a problem at right tackle, which will make life a lot easier for Sam Bradford. Danny Amendola is out for this one, but things are looking up for the Rams injury wise.

I liked St. Louis better when Arizona was publicly backed, because I don’t like betting against non-publicly backed favorites this week because the odds makers have had a rough 3 weeks and seem due for a big week. Non-publicly faded dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run. When a favorite not publicly backed covers, they get a favorite who covers and they make money (odds makers always win with equal action because of juice).

Because of that and the fact that this is an NFC West divisional matchup, it’s a small play on the Rams. Rather than putting 2 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 3 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 25 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Arizona (50% range)

Sharps lean: STL 13 ARI 3

Final update: Sharps love St. Louis, but I think I’m going to leave the units where they are.

St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +115 3 units

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Total: Under 37 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 23 (+1)

Record: 4-6

I’ve watched a lot of football, but I saw two things I’ve never seen before in the Falcons/Cardinals game this week. First, Matt Ryan won despite throwing 5 interceptions and no touchdowns, the first time that’s happened since the merger (Bart Starr did it last). Second, the Cardinals benched John Skelton despite a 13-0 lead. I don’t have any facts on that, but I’m willing to bet that doesn’t happen very often and certainly never that I’ve seen. This was also the first time since the 1993 Eagles that a team went 4-0 to start the year and then lost 6 straight (they finished 8-8).

It might have been the right move though. Skelton’s play had absolutely nothing to do with their lead, as he was 2 of 7 for 6 yards at the time of his benching. He’s been horrific this year, completing 54.7% of his passes for an average of 5.9 YPA and 2 touchdowns to 5 interceptions. There were a lot of people who thought he was a potential franchise quarterback over Kevin Kolb in the preseason (including Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt, who made him his week 1 starter), but that looks ridiculous now. Even Kolb has noticeably outplayed him.

Actually, looking back at last year, even though Skelton was 6-2 to Kolb’s 2-6, he was still not the better quarterback. Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

The man he was benched for is probably not much better. Ryan Lindley is actually an eerily similar quarterback to Skelton, he’s big, tall, looks the part, and can make all the throws, but he comes from a small school, has major accuracy issues, and generally deserved to be drafted where he was drafted (Skelton in the 4th, Lindley in the 6th).

Lindley was 9 of 20 for just 64 yards in his debut. The only reason they were competitive was their defense and running game. In 4 years at San Diego State, despite not playing the toughest competition, he never exceeded 60% completion in a single season (57.7% was his career high). He had some awful games against tougher competition, including a horrible game against TCU last year where he was just all over the place with the ball. If he couldn’t complete 60% of his passes in college at San Diego State, how is he going to do so in the NFL and generally you need to do so to be a successful starting quarterback. He was worth a shot in the 6th round and the Cardinals might as well give him a shot, but he should show why he went in the 6th round.

As for the future of their quarterback position, Lindley and Skelton aren’t it. Kolb might be. I know he’s owed a lot of money (11 million), but this isn’t a good offseason to need a quarterback. The draft is weak. Free agency is weak. The trade market is weak. They put a lot of resources into him and he was decent this year despite a horrific offensively line. It might not be the worst idea to focus on the offensive line this offseason, forego adding another quarterback, and see if with a better offensive line, Kolb can be the quarterback they thought he’d be. I don’t think it’s been ruled out yet.

Studs

RB La’Rod Stephens-Howling: Rushed for 127 yards (57 after contact) and a touchdown on 22 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 3 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps

RG Adam Snyder: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 98 yards on 4 attempts

LG Daryn Colledge: Did not allow a pressure on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

MLB Daryl Washington: 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 penalty, 1 quarterback hurry on 15 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 35 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception

MLB Paris Lenon: 8 solo tackles, 6 stops, 2 missed tackles, 4 quarterback hurries on 20 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 27 yards on 4 attempts

Duds

QB Ryan Lindley: 9 of 20 for 64 yards, 1 throw away, 54.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 23 drop backs (3 sacks, 0 of 2)

LT Nate Potter: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 32 pass block snaps

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 7 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 5 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

TE Rob Housler: Was not thrown to on 20 pass snaps, 1 penalty

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Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (8-1)

The Falcons are 9.5 point favorites here at home, but they’ve struggled to blow teams out this year, winning 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 against teams who, like the Cardinals, currently have a sub .500 record. 4 of those 5 close games were at home and they represent all 4 of the Falcons’ home games this season.

Arizona is in a couple of good spots. They’re dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 95-50 ATS in since 2011. They are double digit dogs (I know they’re technically not, but close enough, it’s -10 in some places) before being favorites, a situation teams are 46-27 ATS in since 2002, including 16-4 ATS as non-divisional double digit dogs before being divisional favorites (they host St. Louis next week). They’re also coming off a bye having lost 5 or more in a row, a situation teams are 20-8 ATS in since 1989.

We’re also getting line value with the Cardinals. Using the yards per play differential method, we get a real line of Atlanta -5.5 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential metric, we get a real line of -10, which averages out to be a significantly smaller line than this is (2 points is pretty significant). All this being said, I like the Falcons this week for two reasons.

The first is that I really don’t like the way the Cardinals are going right now. They’ve lost 5 in a row and John Skelton, who will start once again this week, is, believe it or not, actually a downgrade over Kevin Kolb. Both of their top-2 backs are hurt and their offensive line is a complete joke and on pace to break Houston’s record of 78 sacks allowed set in 2002, their first season in existence.

Second, since Mike Smith took over in 2008, this team has been excellent at rebounding off a loss. Good teams with good coaches tend to do this and Mike Smith might do it better than anyone (I guarantee you if his name were anything other than Mike Smith, he’d be known as one of the top Head Coaches in the NFL). He is 17-3 ATS off a loss, including 6-0 ATS off an upset loss.

The Falcons haven’t blown a bunch of teams out this year, but they certainly have the personnel and capability to do so. I think they get that blowout win this week in a statement game for a team that always bounces back well off a loss and that needs to shut a few people up by blowing out a team that should blow out. They’re also great outside of the division at home as Matt Ryan is 16-6 ATS as non-divisional home favorites, though just 5-3 ATS as touchdown favorites and 1-1 ATS as double digit favorites. I like the Falcons for a small play. I hate laying this many points in general, and there is a lot of conflicting stuff in this one, but the Falcons seem due for a statement home win against a crappy opponent.

Public lean: Atlanta (70% range)

Sharps lean: ARZ 8 ATL 2

Final update: One of the toughest games this week as there’s stuff going on for both sides. Injuries will play a key role as well as Julio Jones is a game time decision and both Sean Weatherspoon and Calais Campbell, arguably each team’s best defensive player, are not expected to play. I’m sticking with my original pick, but it would be very low in any confidence pool and a zero unit pick if I did them.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Arizona Cardinals 12

Pick against spread: Atlanta -9.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 23 (+0)

Record: 4-5

Well, at least they’ll always have the memory of being 4-0 right. Well, unless someone tries to delete the history of it. Michael Silver proclaimed them the best team in the league after their 3-0 start and I wrote about how he was an idiot for doing so because Buffalo and Washington did similar things last year. 3 game winning streaks are not special, but when they happen at the beginning of the season, they’re more noticeable. Well, I went to find that Michael Silver article this week and it had been deleted. Awesome idea. Maybe I should delete every instance where I said the 49ers would miss the playoffs this year.

Studs

RT Bobby Massie: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

C Lyle Sendlein: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 6 passes for 74 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts on 48 pass snaps, 6.5 YAC per catch

Duds

LT Nate Potter: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps

LG Daryn Colledge: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

RG Rich Ohrnberger: Allowed 2 quarterback hits on 48 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

WR Early Doucet: Did not catch a pass on 4 attempts on 17 pass snaps, 3 drops

TE Rob Housler: Caught 5 passes for 55 yards on 9 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 4.2 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to

LOLB Quentin Groves: 1 quarterback hit on 9 pass rush snaps, 3 penalties, 1 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB O’Brien Schofield: Did not record a pressure on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

ROLB Sam Acho: 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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