Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Packers

Arizona Cardinals (4-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

This is what I said about the Cardinals after their 3-0 start. “Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction.” They haven’t covered since and have lost 4 straight.

Now with Kolb out, John Skelton is actually a downgrade, believe it or not, despite their records last season. Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. This year, Skelton is completing 57.9% of his passes for 5.9 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while Kolb is completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Until Kolb returns, this team is really going to struggle. Meanwhile, the offensive line is one of the worst I’ve ever seen and it might be the worst ever. They’re on pace to allow 89 sacks, which would shatter the NFL record of 76 set by the Texans in 2002. They’re still a good team to bet against going forward. Teams are 13-20 ATS off of 5 straight ATS losses as 10+ dogs.

Now they’re in a bad spot coming off a 17+ point loss on Monday Night Football. Teams are 22-37 ATS off a Monday Night Football loss of 17 or more. 5 days is just not enough time to bounce back mentally from a devastating loss and it’s not enough time to fix the problems. Meanwhile, the Packers are touchdown plus home favorites before a bye. Teams are 35-12 ATS in this spot since 2002, winning, on average, by 16.4 points per game. Good teams tend to be extra focused heading into a bye.

We are getting line value with the Cardinals, however. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Green Bay -7 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives us a real line of Green Bay -6.5. And its not because the Cardinals grade out well in those two statistics, ranking 24th and 18th respectively. It’s the Packers. They’re not the same team they were last year. They don’t run the ball well at all. Their offensive line isn’t good. They miss Greg Jennings and several other injured contributors. And they don’t consistently win the turnover battle anymore. They rank just 11th and 10th in those statistics respectively.

However, I still like the Packers. The Cardinals are heading in the wrong direction and are starting a truly inferior backup quarterback, while the Packers have some momentum. That slowed last week against Jacksonville, but they are expected to get Jordy Nelson back, which will help. The Packers are still good enough for the touchdown plus favorites after a bye trend to be in play. I hate laying this many points, especially on a public lean, and not getting line value, but the Packers should be the right side.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARZ 9 GB 2

Final update: I’m dropping down to 1 unit for 3 reasons. The first one is that the Packers may hold Jordy Nelson out another week, with an easy opponent this week and a bye next week. The second one is that, while 7+ home favorites tend to cover at a high rate going into a bye, 10+ home favorites are just 11-7 ATS (home favorites of between 7 of 10 are 24-5 ATS before a bye). It seems good teams tend to cover going into a bye, so long as they don’t have to cover a massive spread. The third reason is that the sharps like Arizona. Green Bay should still be the right side, but I’m not really confident and I hate laying this many points.

Green Bay Packers 27 Arizona Cardinals 12

Pick against spread: Green Bay -11 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 23 (-2)

Record: 4-4

I wish Dennis Green was still the Cardinals’ coach. Then he could shout “we are who they thought we were!” I never believed in them. They’ve never been ranked higher than 15th in these Power Rankings, even when they were 4-0. This is what I said about the Cardinals after their 3-0 start. “Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).

Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction.” They haven’t covered since and have lost 4 straight.

Now with Kolb out, John Skelton is actually a downgrade, believe it or not, despite their records last season. Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. This year, Skelton is completing 57.9% of his passes for 5.9 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while Kolb is completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Until Kolb returns, this team is really going to struggle. Meanwhile, the offensive line is one of the worst I’ve ever seen and it might be the worst ever. They’re on pace to allow 89 sacks, which would shatter the NFL record of 76 set by the Texans in 2002.

Studs

C Lyle Sendlein: Did not allow a pressure on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Daryl Washington: 2 sacks on 7 blitzes, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, was not thrown on

RE Calais Campbell: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 24 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 6 stops

Duds

RB LaRod Stephens-Howling: Rushed for 6 yards (9 after contact) on 8 carries, caught 3 passes for 32 yards on 4 attempts, allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass block snaps

LG Daryn Colledge: Allowed 1 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 60 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 60 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

WR Larry Fitzgerald: Caught 5 passes for 52 yards on 11 attempts on 59 pass snaps, 4.6 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

CB William Gay: Allowed 4 catches for 57 yards on 4 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

CB Patrick Peterson: Allowed 5 catches for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

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San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, Cardinals

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-3)

In NFC West matchups, the rule of thumb is to pick the home team. Since 2007, no other division comes close to covering at home at a rate as high as the NFC West, which is 103-74 ATS at in that time period. San Francisco, St. Louis, Seattle, and Arizona are all teams that are good at home and bad on the road generally. Given that, it makes sense that inside the division, the home team generally covers in NFC West divisional contests and that’s exactly what happens.

In that same time period, the home team in an NFC West divisional matchup covers at a record of 38-24 ATS. As well as the 49ers played last year, they still managed to go 1-2 ATS on the road in the division, 0-2-1 ATS depending on the lines (some had Seattle +2 rather than +1.5). They lost straight up in Arizona, beat St. Louis by just a touchdown, and beat Seattle by just 2, all of which were games they were favored in. There’s not a lot of data on this type of situation, but home dogs of 7+ in the NFC West have covered 2 of the 3 instances in that time period. Home dogs of 7+ cover at a high rate anyway, regardless, going 99-78 ATS since 2002.

Besides, the Cardinals tend to play a lot of close games anyway. This makes sense because they have a good defense, as much as their offense struggles. Dating back to last year, they’ve only lost 4 games by more than 7, out of 11 total losses, including only once at home, 32-20 to the Steelers. This week’s game is even more likely to be close because the 49ers are a more defensive oriented team as well. Some places have this line at 6.5 (-110), but pay extra for the +7 if you can because you might need it. +7 is at -120 right now.

Besides, this spread seems a little weird. Last week, San Francisco was anywhere from -7 to -8.5 at home for Seattle and they didn’t even cover, winning by just 7. Now they’re -7 in Arizona? Arizona beat Seattle and both teams have the same record. I’ll agree that Seattle is the better team right now, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that, especially considering the home/road disparity in NFC divisional games.

Meanwhile, Arizona was +7 in Minnesota and pushed and now they’re +7 at home for San Francisco? Minnesota beat San Francisco and has the same record as them. Once again, I’ll agree the 49ers are the better team, but 6 points better? I don’t agree with that. Neither do the measures for calculating line value either. The yards per play differential method gives us a line of San Francisco -9.5 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives of a line of San Francisco -3. If you average those two out, you get lower than -7 and that’s not even taking into account that Alex Smith isn’t playing well right now and that they’re unlikely to continue rushing for 5.9 YPC, because no one does that. That’s the main reason behind their #1 ranking in yards per play.

Plus, just look at the spread last year. San Francisco was 10-2 and Arizona was 5-7 and the spread was just 3 and the Cardinals still covered and won. The 49ers aren’t as good of a team as they were last year because they aren’t winning the turnover battle like they were last year. This line is ridiculous. Normally I’d think this line was too good to be true, but the public likes San Francisco and the line still isn’t moving.

I know I mentioned early this week that I think favorites will have a good week this week, in order to help bring the dogs/favorites record eventually to within 10 games of .500, which it’s been in each of the last 10 years at least (right now it’s at 63-39 in favor of dogs). That doesn’t mean dogs should not be bet at all. It’s perfectly fine to take a dog if the favorite is publicly backed like the 49ers are this week. I really like Arizona this week. I also like the under this week. This should be a close, low scoring game between two of the top-4 scoring defenses in the league. Besides, the under hits at a record of 78-46 in NFC West divisional games since 2007.

Public lean: San Francisco (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARZ 12 SF 6

Final update: Line in Las Vegas Hilton is 6.5, but still the lean is on Arizona. I really like Arizona at +7. Pay extra for the extra half point if you can. If you can’t, it’s a smaller play.

San Francisco 49ers 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +7 (-120) 4 units

Total: Under 38 (-110) 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 21 (+0)

Record: 4-3

After going 10-1 in an 11 game stretch in games decided by less than a touchdown, the Cardinals have lost 2 straight games of that nature. They must have “forgotten how to win.” Well, before that 11 game stretch, they were 2-8 in their last 10 games of that nature with the same group of guys. In reality, there is no such thing as “knowing how to win games.” Historically, teams that win more than 67% of games decided by a touchdown or less over the course of a season will win 50% of those types of games the following season. Meanwhile, teams that win a game by 7 or fewer win their following game 52% of the time if it’s decided by 7 or fewer.

The only exception seems to be having a franchise quarterback (which the Cardinals clearly don’t). Guys like Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady have great career records in those types of games. I makes sense. It’s a lot easier for one guy to be clutch and elevate his play in crunch time than it is for a whole team to do so. It’s wrong to expect the Cardinals to now become bad at winning close games and go on another 2-8 type stretch, but going forward, they should be expected to win about 50% of their close games.

Studs

RB LaRod Stephens-Howling: Rushed for 104 yards (73 after contact) and a touchdown on 20 attempts, 9 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 45 yards on 5 attempts

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 7 passes for 103 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 6.8 YAC per catch

SS Adrian Wilson: Did not allow a completion on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Calais Campbell: 3 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

ROLB Sam Acho: 1 interception, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 17 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps

RT Bobby Massie: Allowed 2 sacks and 8 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt, 1 penalty

WR Early Doucet: Caught 3 passes for 19 yards on 6 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 5.3 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

LE Darnell Dockett: 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Vikings

Arizona Cardinals (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)

Wow. Who would have thought when these two teams met week 7, it would be a game of 4-2 teams with potential future playoff ramifications. In a year that has once again been full of surprises, these two are probably the league’s two most surprisingly good teams. However, as I’ve said all along, I believe one team is for real and one isn’t.

When Arizona started 4-0, I called them one of the worst 4-0 teams ever and mentioned that I did the same thing with the Broncos in 2009. The Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.

So many things pointed to the Cardinals’ early start being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranked tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential through 4 games (they are now 28th). They had won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.

This team was 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that. I’ve bet against them heavily in each of the last 3 weeks, dating back to a near loss at home to Miami and I’ve been right each time.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is for real. They are 8th in the league in yards per play differential and 7th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Last year, in the 9 games in which Ponder led the team in passing attempts, the team scored 22.9 points per game. Despite their 3-13 record, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6 wins, despite injuries to several key players.

Now Ponder is healthy and improved, behind a better offensive line. The coaching staff is finally using Percy Harvin properly and he’s emerged as one of the better receivers in the league. Meanwhile, their defense is much improved thanks to the return of Antoine Winfield and Chris Cook, as well as young players playing better. After ranking 20th in the league in yards per play allowed last year, their young defense has broken out and now ranks 3rd.

They had a setback last week in Washington, but I don’t think their season is doomed because of one bad game. Unlike the Cardinals, their important stats check out. Besides, the Redskins in Washington aren’t an easy opponent. They’ve been competitive in every game this year. The Vikings did manage still control the ball better, with 27 first downs to Washington’s 20. Washington actually punted 3 times to 2 for Minnesota. Washington won because they won the yards per play battle 6.6 to 5.3 and the turnover battle 3 to 1. The yards per play battle means something, but the turnover battle doesn’t much so much given the inconsistency of turnovers. They’re still the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from 5 or fewer wins to the playoffs, although Washington is creeping up on them fast.

The problem is that this line indicates that Arizona isn’t for real and Minnesota is because it’s at -7. If you take the difference between Minnesota’s yards per play differential and Arizona’s and divide by .15 and add 3 points to San Francisco’s side for home field advantage, you get a line of 9.5, which suggests 2.5 points of line value with the Vikings.

However, one issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4th downs. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, Minnesota is at +4.1%, while Seattle is at -0.8%. The difference between the percents is 4.9, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of Minnesota -5.5. I don’t think we really have line value either way.

It’s also worth noting this line has shifted 3 points since last week, which doesn’t make any sense since Minnesota lost. Arizona also lost and that was bad and they also lost Kevin Kolb, but I don’t think either of those things is worth a 3 point line value. Kolb was leading a miserable offense anyway. Arizona’s defense is still really good despite their recent struggles. Because of that, they should be able to keep this a close game and I like getting 7 with them. Dating back to last year, just 4 of their 10 losses have come by a touchdown or more. As long as we’re getting a touchdown with them, it’s a small play on the road team to cover, but fail to come up with a victory.

Public lean: Minnesota (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARI 18 MIN 4

Final update: Sharps really like Arizona. I’ll add a unit. Arizona should be able to keep this one close.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +7 (-110) 2 units

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 16 (-5)

Record: 4-2

It was also a matter time before Kevin Kolb broke. An injury prone behind that offensive line with an offense that passes that often, it was inevitable. Fun fact about that offensive line (or not so fun if you’re a Cardinals fan): offensive tackles D’Anthony Baptiste and Bobby Massie have combined to surrender 19 sacks this year. No other team’s offensive tackles have surrendered more than 8 combined. They’ve each down that individually. Those two combined with right guard Adam Snyder give them 3 starting offensive lineman ranked worst at their position by ProFootballFocus.

It might sound weird to say, but they will miss Kevin Kolb when it’s out. He was the superior quarterback last year in turns of yards per drive, but only had a worse record than Skelton because of tougher competition and inferior defensive play supporting him. This year, he did a decent job of keeping things together despite little supporting cast, better than Skelton would have done. Oh, and those idiots who put Arizona 1st in their Power Rankings (like Michael Silver) when they were 3-0 or 4-0 are frantically trying to delete every trace of those articles. Yeah, because Kevin Kolb was going to win the Super Bowl…

Arizona Cardinals

Studs

LOLB O’Brien Schofield: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 2 missed tackles

Duds

RG Adam Snyder: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 48 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 2 passes for 18 yards on 4 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

WR Early Doucet: Caught 1 pass for 1 yard on 3 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LE Darnell Dockett: Did not record a pressure on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

MLB Paris Lenon: Allowed 1 catch for 22 yards on 1 attempt, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 11 blitzes

ROLB Sam Acho: 1 quarterback hit on 19 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

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Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bills, Cardinals

Buffalo Bills (2-3) at Arizona Cardinals (4-1)

Last week, I called the Arizona Cardinals one of the worst 4-0 teams ever. With Kevin Kolb as their quarterback, no offensive line, and no running game, last week’s offensive catastrophe was inevitable and I don’t think it’s the last one. There’s a reason I frequently ranked them lower than their record and picked against them. For as good as their defense is, their offense is equally bad. They actually rank just 28th in the league in yards per play differential, thanks to a last place ranking in yards per play. They’ll still be in the playoff race with a nice head start, but expect this team to finish somewhere around .500 once again this year. In general, I suggest continuing to ride the correction as a bettor.

However, their opponent this week is the Bills, who have looked awfully awful over the past 2 weeks. Since jumping out to a 21-7 lead against New England, they have been outscored by a total of 90-10 by New England and San Francisco, who beat them 45-3 last week. Their defense, which they invested so many resources into this offseason, has allowed 45 or more points in 3 of their 5 contests this year.

I, like many people, expected an improved defense from them thanks to offseason acquisitions of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson, as well as the return of defensive tackle Kyle Williams, a defensive player of the year candidate in 2010 before getting hurt last year. However, Williams and Anderson have been huge free agency busts, and the latter is probably done for the year with a knee injury. Meanwhile, their back 7 has been horrendous.

Playing the Cardinals might be exactly what they need though, given the Cardinals’ offensive issues. They allowed just 31 points combined week 2 and week 3 against Kansas City’s and Cleveland’s miserable offenses, so they are capable of shutting teams down if their opponents aren’t very good. Both of those games were easy wins for the Bills, though it’s worth noting that neither team had a defense like Arizona’s.

Buffalo is also missing several offensive lineman, including two week 1 starters and two guys who were supposed to step into the starting lineup for them. Recently signed off the streets, Reggie Wells could be their starting right guard, a huge problem against a tough defensive front like Arizona’s. Ryan Fitzpatrick has always struggled under pressure. A big part of the reason why this team declined last year was injuries to their offensive line.

We are getting some line value with Buffalo. Buffalo ranks just 1 spot below Arizona in yards per play differential, with a difference of .1, which translates to a real line of Arizona -3.5. This line is Arizona -5. It’s not a huge difference at all, but it’s worth noting that before the Bills’ loss to the 49ers, they ranked much better in that category.

They just lost the yards per play battle in San Francisco by 3.5 yards per play, which is pathetic, but if you don’t want to put too much stock into one bad game against a very good opponent, you could actually argue the Bills have a good deal of line value this week since Arizona has been around the bottom of the league in that stat all season. The odds makers seem to be putting a great deal of value into that game as, despite the fact that Arizona imploded offensively last week, this line has actually shifted a point in favor of Arizona since last week. Last week, this line was -4. Still, the public is betting Arizona because of how bad the Bills have looked in the past couple of weeks.

Speaking of how bad the Bills have looked in the past few weeks, teams that lose back-to-back games by 20+ are 33-16 ATS the following week. Those teams tend to be undervalued and desperate. I already covered how the Bills are undervalued, but at 2-3, if they have any hopes of making the playoffs, the Bills need a win here to stop the bleeding against a team that’s vulnerable. Arizona, meanwhile, might be more focused on a trip to Minnesota next week. At 4-1, this isn’t a must win game or anything for them at all. Buffalo is also playing for respect as they’ve currently replaced the Jets as the laughing stock of the league.

The Bills are also in another good spot as road dogs after a loss as road dogs. Teams in this situation are 60-40 ATS since 2008. They’re also dogs before being favorites as they host Tennessee last week. Teams in that situation are 73-48 ATS since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as a dog. Finally, even if Arizona does win, it probably won’t be by very many.

With the exception of that weird game against Philadelphia, the Cardinals have won every game this season by 3 points or fewer. This is nothing new for them. Last season, all 8 of their wins were by a touchdown or less, including a ridiculous 5 wins by 4 or fewer. Of their 3 wins by more than 4 last year, only Carolina week 1 was decided in regulation. In 2010, 3 of their 5 wins were by 4 or fewer. Since Kurt Warner retired after the 2009 season, this team has won a total of 4 games by more than 4 points in regulation. As a result, they are just 1-3 ATS as favorites of more than a field goal in that time period.

This should be a low scoring, close game so even if Arizona wins, I feel safe getting 5 points. Besides, teams who score 3 or fewer points are just 2-6 ATS the following week since 1989 as favorites of more than a field goal when their opponent is also coming off a game in which they scored 3 or fewer points. This makes complete sense because no team deserves to be laying more than a field goal if they have major offensive issues, no matter who they are playing.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Sharps lean: BUF 8 ARI 7

Final update: No change.

Buffalo Bills 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +190

Pick against spread: Buffalo +5 (-110) 3 units

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 15 (-1)

Record: 4-1

Last week, I called the Arizona Cardinals one of the worst 4-0 teams ever. With Kevin Kolb as their quarterback, no offensive line, and no running game, last week’s offensive catastrophe was inevitable and I don’t think it’s the last one. There’s a reason I frequently ranked them lower than their record and picked against them. For as good as their defense is, their offense is equally bad. They actually rank just 28th in the league in yards per play differential, thanks to a last place ranking in yards per play. They’ll still be in the playoff race with a nice head start, but expect this team to finish somewhere around .500 once again this year. Continue to ride the correction as a bettor.

Studs

FS Kerry Rhodes: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

MLB Daryl Washington: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 11 blitzes

LOLB O’Brien Schofield: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 18 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Duds

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 3 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 63 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -4 yards on 1 attempt

RG Adam Snyder: Allowed 3 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 63 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

RT Bobby Massie: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 8 quarterback hurries on 63 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 5 passes for 39 yards on 9 attempts on 62 pass snaps, 3.8 YAC per catch

WR Early Doucet: Caught 3 passes for 29 yards on 7 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

MLB Paris Lenon: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Rams

Arizona Cardinals (4-0) at St. Louis Rams (2-2)

I was going to call the Cardinals the worst 4-0 team ever, but then I remembered the 2009 Broncos. The 2009 Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8, proving their start was a fluke. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.

So many things point to this being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranks tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential. They’ve won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.

This team is 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less. The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that.

Eventually, this team will even out at around .500. I started riding the correction with this team last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week (actually I nailed all 3) and I’m going to continue that going forward. Last week I mentioned a trend that teams are 7-12 ATS as a favorite after winning 3 straight as dogs. Well, how do those teams do the following week? Those teams are 5-14 ATS the following week, 2-6 ATS as favorites. It’s a big dynamic switch and it doesn’t affect them just once.

The Cardinals struggled with that last week and should continue to struggle with it this week. One other thing they struggled with last week was defensive line play without Darnell Dockett. He’s expected to be out this week too. Defense is their calling card so his absence is predictably huge. I mentioned the Cardinals’ 27th ranked yards per play differential. The Cardinals lost that battle 6.5 to 4.2 to the lowly Dolphins at home last week and only won because they were able to recover all 6 fumbles that hit the ground. Recovering fumbles on the ground is much more luck than skill.

Now onto the Rams, they’re not great, but they beat a similar team last week, the Seattle Seahawks. I nailed that one too, another one of my co-picks of the week. The Seahawks are known for being a much worse road team than home team, but the NFC West is more or less like this as a whole, especially in the division. Since 2007, home teams are 37-23 ATS in NFC West divisional games. Even the 2011 49ers, who were the best single team this division has seen in that time period, went 1-2 on the road last year, losing in Arizona, winning but failing to cover as large favorites in St. Louis, and then barely coming away with a 2 point win in Seattle (the line was -1.5). St. Louis is a good home team anyway, going 5-3 at home in 2010, the last time they were a respectable team (which I think they are again). This year, they’re 2-0 at home, winning twice as home dogs.

The Cardinals are at a disadvantage traveling on a short week too. Thursday Home teams are 66-48 ATS since 1989. Now, they are 20-23 ATS as dogs and I fell into this trap with Carolina 2 weeks ago (although Carolina eventually became a small favorite with line movement). Veteran, experienced teams, who are normally favored, do seem to have the edge in this game and that edge cancels out the short travel week. However, it’s tough to call the Cardinals that since they have one of the younger rosters in the NFL. St. Louis has the advantage on a short week here, especially with Arizona coming off an overtime game. Teams coming off an overtime game are predictably exhausted the next week, so it’s tough to be 100% for a Thursday Night game. Teams are 3-13 ATS in this situation since 1989, 1-10 ATS on the road.

We’re also getting good line value with the Rams. I mentioned the Cardinals’ 27th ranked yards per play differential several times (even worse last week), they’re at -0.7, which is the same as the Rams. An old gambling formula says to take the difference between two teams’ yards per play differentials and add 3 either way for homefield advantage. That suggests the Rams should be -3 here, not +1.5. In spite of that, the public loves Arizona this week. I love fading the public as often as I can. The odds makers are rich for a reason. The public always loses so they’re never a bad group to disagree with.

Given everything, this is one of my biggest plays of the week. Arizona is a very overrated team, especially likely without Darnell Dockett. They’re in a tough spot coming off an overtime game and then having to travel for a short week and play a team that just played a home game and didn’t have to go anywhere. NFC West divisional games tend to see the home team cover anyway. Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. 1 point games are rare, about 2% of the time, and it’s not worth the extra 15 cents to be protected against something that would hurt me 1% of the time. I’m also putting 1 unit on the under. Neither of these teams are offensive teams anyway and the under is 68-50 on Thursdays since 1989.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

St. Louis Rams 17 Arizona Cardinals 10 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: St. Louis +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Over/under: Under 39 1 unit

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Arizona Cardinals: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Cardinals

Last week: 16 (+1)

Record: 4-0

I was going to call the Cardinals the worst 4-0 team ever, but then I remembered the 2009 Broncos. The Broncos, much like the Cardinals this year, were one of my preseason picks to be among the worst in the league. After the Broncos started 2-0, 3-0, 4-0 etc, I started calling them the worst 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, etc team ever because of how they were winning. I got some negative comments and hate mail for that. The Broncos started 6-0 that year and ended the season 8-8. The Cardinals could see something similar happen.

So many things point to this being a fluke. One, Larry Fitzgerald is their only good offensive player. If numbers are more your thing, this team ranks tied for 27th in the league in yards per play differential. They’ve won 3 games by 3 or fewer points, giving them only a +30 points differential. Contrary to popular belief, winning close games does even out over time.

This team is 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or fewer. Before that, they were 2-8 in their last 10, with essentially the same group of guys. Teams that win more than 67% of their close games win about 50% of those types of games the following season and the same is true midseason. Teams that win a game by 7 points or less are 586-541 (52.0%) since 1989 in their following game if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less.

The only exception, historically, has proven to be an elite quarterback, but the Cardinals don’t have that. Eventually, this team will even out at around .500. They’re a very similar team to the Seahawks and could easily lose in St. Louis on a short week this week. I’ve started riding the correction with this team last week and nailed one of my co-picks of the week (actually I nailed all 3) and I’m going to continue that going forward.

Studs

WR Andre Roberts: Caught 6 passes for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts on 57 pass snaps, 4.8 YAC per catch

SS Adrian Wilson: Allowed 1 catch for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 8 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes

MLB Paris Lenon: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops, 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 20 blitzes, was not thrown on

ROLB Sam Acho: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

P Dave Zastudil: 9 punts for 435 yards, 4 inside 20, 2 returns for 9 yards, 47.3 net yards per punt

Duds

LT D’Anthony Baptiste: Allowed 2 sacks and 4 quarterback hurries on 57 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

RT Bobby Massie: Allowed 5 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 57 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty

RB Ryan Williams: Rushed for 26 yards (26 after contact) on 13 carries, 3 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 10 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 0 yards on 2 targets, 1 drop

WR Early Doucet: Caught 4 passes for 31 yards on 7 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB William Gay: Allowed 5 catches for 129 yards on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackle, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

LE Nick Eason: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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