Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals extend MLB Daryl Washington

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Cardinals, Offseason Moves 2012

Washington was Arizona’s leader in tackles last season and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 10th ranked middle linebacker, grading out above average against the run, in coverage, and as a blitzer, adding 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures. Heading into his 3rd year in the league, he has a good chance to make his first Pro Bowl in 2012. Washington, a 2010 2nd round pick, still had 2 years left on his rookie contract, but, with no players of note heading into contract years, the Cardinals decided to lock him up now.

I’m not normally a fan of when teams give players a new deal after just 2 years in the league and they’re also overpaying him a little bit. He’s getting an extra 32 million of new money over an extra 4 years, though no word yet on the guaranteed money amount. Similar caliber players like Curtis Lofton, Stephen Tulloch, and David Hawthorne got 27.5 million, 25.5 million, and 19 million respectively over 5 years. In a passing league, non-rush linebackers like Washington just aren’t worth that much, with rare exceptions.

Look at the deal Patrick Willis got 2 years ago. Willis got 7 years, 53.51 million with 29 million guaranteed. Washington is getting more yearly than him and he’s only played 2 years and never been a Pro-Bowler. The Cardinals are taking a big risk here projecting that Washington will continue to improve and jump from above average to elite. With 2 years left on his rookie deal, there was no real reason to make this move now. Make him prove it first.

Grade: C

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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) Arizona Cardinals (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I really like to bet against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams, with Wilson doing so here for the Seahawks. The one major difference between Wilson and the 4 other guys on that list is that he was not a 1st round pick. The history of non-1st round picks starting week 1 since 1994 is not pretty. There have been only 4 to do so before Wilson. They all listed below.

Chris Weinke 2001- 4th round pick, 54.3%, 5.4 YPA, 11 touchdowns to 19 interceptions

Quincy Carter 2001- 2nd round pick, 51.1%, 6.1 YPA, and 5 touchdowns to 7 interceptions

Kyle Orton 2005- 4th round pick, 51.6%, 5.1 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions

Andy Dalton 2011- 2nd round pick, 58.1%, 6.6 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions

There’s a reason why non-1st round pick quarterbacks start so infrequently as rookies. This makes a lot of sense. Rookie quarterbacks in general struggle more than the rest of the league and non-1st round picks don’t exactly have a history of success in the NFL, especially recently. Wilson will be one of just 9 non-1st round pick starting quarterbacks in the NFL this season.

NFL drafting is generally a crapshoot. However, the one thing NFL teams seem to be pretty foolproof at doing is not letting starting quarterbacks fall out of the 1st round of the draft. Obviously, not all 1st round pick quarterbacks work out, but it’s almost impossible to find a starting quarterback after the 1st round. If you possess the baseline tools to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, you’re going to go in the 1st round, even if your accuracy or footwork or mechanics needs a lot of work. Almost always, if a quarterback falls out of the 1st round, it’s because there’s something majorly wrong with him, something preventing him from being a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Could Russell Wilson follow in Andy Dalton’s footsteps and buck the trend? I wouldn’t rule it out, but I’m not going to predict it. Wilson had a strong preseason, which is how he won this job, completing 63.5% of passes for 8.5 YPA and 5 touchdowns to 1 interception. However, only one of his games came against a 1st team defense and the preseason is generally meaningless because both offenses and defenses are using such vanilla schemes. Expecting Wilson to defy history because of how he fared in a few preseason games is ridiculous.

That being said, Wilson is better than John Skelton, Arizona’s quarterback. John Skelton had an awful preseason, completing 56.0% of his passes for an average of 5.2 YPA and 1 touchdown to 2 interceptions. This is more meaningful than Wilson’s numbers because it’s basically what we’ve seen from Skelton in his career. In his career, he’s completed 52.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions (in case you were wondering, Skelton was a 4th round pick). He led the Cardinals to a 6-2 record in 8 games last year, but largely because his defense allowed 19.0 points per game in those 8. Skelton led the Cardinals to 1.29 points per drive last season, which would have ranked 28th in the league last year. He’s not the answer at quarterback for the Cardinals (neither is Kevin Kolb), but he probably won’t have that much worse of a season than Wilson.

Skelton is also working with the far better receiving corps, while Wilson has a slight edge on the offensive line (though neither is very good). The Seahawks will have the edge on the ground if Marshawn Lynch can play, but if he can’t (he’s currently suffering from back spasms), then, all of a sudden, Arizona’s duo of Chris Wells and Ryan Williams, running behind an actually decent run blocking offensive line (for as awful as their pass protection is, Arizona was actually ProFootballFocus’ 7th ranked run blocking offensive line last year), gets the edge over Robert Turbin and Leon Washington for the Seahawks. Defensively, things are pretty evenly matched. Seattle had the edge last season, allowing just 19.7 points per game to Arizona’s 21.8, but Arizona allowed 18.3 points per game in their final 9 games last year, as their young defense finally came into its own. Seattle also lost David Hawthorne this offseason and had several players have career years last year, something that might not happen again.

These teams are actually pretty evenly matched. I think Seattle is the better team, but it’s going to be a close, low scoring game either way in Russell Wilson’s debut (remember how much rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle and those were mostly 1st rounders). This line should be something like -2 or -3, in favor of Arizona, the home team, (3 points is for home field advantage). Instead, it’s the opposite, -3 in favor of the road team. Seattle is a notoriously bad road team, going 11-31 SU and 14-27 ATS on the road since 2007. In fact, NFC West divisional games are typically won by the home team. This makes sense as the NFC West typically features evenly matched teams that are better at home than on the road. NFC West teams are 87-81 SU at home over the past 5 seasons and 47-117 SU on the road. Over that time period, NFC West teams are 23-35 ATS on the road in the division.

I’m taking Arizona here and it’s one of my favorite plays of the week. I think Seattle, as a team, is being overrated right now because of Russell Wilson’s strong preseason, when, in reality, history says he’ll struggle this season and I expect that to be especially true early in the season. We’re getting a lot of line value here. I don’t like Seattle, a bad road team, as road favorites against a fairly evenly matched team (especially, potentially with the Seahakws minus Lynch) in a division when divisional matchups tend to be won by the home team (both SU and ATS).

Arizona Cardinals 16 Seattle Seahawks 13 Upset Pick (+125)

Pick against spread: Arizona +3 (-120) 3 units

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Cardinals’ Beanie Wells still having trouble cutting in practice

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

Though Beanie Wells had what was called minor knee surgery way back in January, he has yet to play in a preseason game. An injury prone player who apparently is a slow healer, Wells is reportedly still struggling to cut in practice, according to XTRA 910 Arizona’s Mike Jurecki. In spite of this, Wells is expected to suit up for his 1st preseason game this week, but will see limited reps like Ryan Williams, also coming off a knee injury, did last week.

Wells is definitely no sure thing to play all 16 games this season and with a talented backup in Ryan Williams behind him, it’s definitely possible he could lose his starting job or at least significant carries this season, possibly even early in the season. Williams, a 2011 2nd round pick coming off a knee injury that cost him all of 2011, has looked very good in practice and rushed for 25 yards on 5 carries last week in his first preseason action. He’s a nice fantasy sleeper in the mid to late rounds if you can get him there. Wells, meanwhile, is being overdrafted with a 7th round ADP.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Cardinals’ Levi Brown could be done for the year

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

The Cardinals allowed the 2nd most sacks in the league last year, allowing 54, and now they have been dealt a huge blow to their offensive line as Levi Brown could be out for the year after tearing his triceps. Brown has been described as “right on the margin” to return this season after undergoing surgery and if the Cardinals are out of the playoff race late in the season, very possible, they won’t bring him back. With no guaranteed money left on his recently restructured 5 year, 30 million dollar contract after the season, it’s very likely that the 2007 5th overall pick has played his last snap for the Cardinals.

However, this may end up being a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. Their backup offensive tackles might not be any better, but it would be hard for them to be worse. Brown has been horrendous since taking over a full time starter in 2008, allowing 41 sacks, 45 quarterback hits, and 150 quarterback pressures in 4 seasons. A solid run blocker yes, but this is a passing league and Brown has the league’s 2nd worst pass blocking efficiency over the last 3 seasons (sacks allowed + .75 hits allowed + .75 pressures allowed/passing snaps played).

In his absence, the Cardinals will either play DJ Young, a 2011 undrafted free agent who has never played a snap, or Jeremy Bridges, who recently lost the right tackle battle to 4th round rookie Bobby Massie. Bridges, the veteran, has allowed 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 26 quarterback pressures in 17 regular and postseason starts over the last 3 starts, both on the right side and the left side, as the Cardinals’ primary swing tackle. Massie, who has won the right tackle job, could also be a candidate to move to the left side this season as he’s probably their most talented offensive tackle. Even though he was a 4th round rookie, he was widely regarded as a steal. Their offensive tackle play probably won’t be quite as bad it was last season.

Another thing that will help out the Cardinals’ offensive line is the presumed decision to start John Skelton over Kevin Kolb. Kolb’s awful pocket presence was part of the reason why the Cardinals allowed so many sacks last season as Kolb took a sack on 26.1% of pressured snaps last season, tied for 2nd worst in the league. Skelton, meanwhile, took a sack on 19.2% of pressured snaps last season. While Kolb took 30 sacks, Skelton took “only” 23 in roughly as many pressured dropbacks. The Cardinals’ offensive line should be one of the worst in the league again this year, but they probably won’t be as bad as they were last year and Brown’s injury is not that serious because he’s atrocious in pass protection.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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John Skelton to start and play into 3rd quarter this week for Cardinals

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

Heading into their 4th preseason game, the Cardinals still have not announced a starting quarterback. However, they have announced that John Skelton will start and play into the 3rd quarter this week. The Cardinals played in the Hall of Fame game to start the Preseason so they have 5 Preseason games instead of 4, so this 4th preseason game will essentially be used like their 3rd preseason game.

Typically, the 3rd preseason game is your dress rehearsal for the regular season. Teams have typically decided all of their starters by this point and will play them into the 2nd half. Though the Cardinals have not officially named Skelton the starter, he will essentially be doing everything a starting quarterback normally would this week and, barring a complete meltdown during the game, he should be their week 1 starter.

Skelton hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with his play this Preseason, completing 10 of 15 for 90 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, but he’s basically won the job by default over Kolb, who has continued to make the Cardinals look foolish with his play this season. Kolb went 3-6 as a starter last season, 2-6 in games where he led the team in quarterback snaps, after the Cardinals gave up a 2nd round pick and a starting cornerback for him and gave him a large contract last offseason. This offseason, they kept him and paid him his 7 million dollar bonus, rather than cutting him, and Kolb responded by going 5 of 15 for 47 yards and a pick this Preseason. Now it looks like he will become the league’s most expensive backup quarterback.

Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive). Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Skelton did rush for 128 yards as opposed to 65 for Kolb and took just 23 sacks as opposed to 30 for Kolb.

Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. All that being said, neither of them played very well at all and Skelton definitely outplayed him this offseason and this preseason. Either way the Cardinals figure to struggle mightily in 2012. Kolb’s 1.52 points per drive was equal to Washington’s last season and they ranked 22nd, while Skelton’s 1.29 was between Denver’s (1.38) and Indianapolis’ (1.24). They ranked 27th and 28th respectively last season.

For fantasy purposes, you can do a lot better than Skelton as a QB2. In 11 career starts, he’s thrown for 2248 yards, 10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, while rushing for 153 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3270 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 223 rushing yards. He was pulled in two of those games and has thrown for 2057 yards, 9 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, while rushing for 144 yards. Over 16 games, that’s 3657 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, while rushing for 256 yards. He’s got a good receiving corps, but those mediocre numbers are what you can expect if he plays all 16 games. Plus, there’s no guarantee he won’t be benched midseason or anything like that.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Arizona Cardinals Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Rob Housler

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Cardinals

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Arizona Cardinals, that player is tight end Rob Housler.

For years and years, the Cardinals have been known as a team that doesn’t use the tight end position very much. In fact, not since Freddie Jones’ final season in 2004, excluding last season, have the Cardinals had a tight end have more than 270 receiving yards in a season. When the Cardinals used a 3rd round pick on Rob Housler in the 2011 NFL Draft, it signaled the start in a shift in offensive mentality, not coincidentally at the same time that the league as a whole is passing to the tight end more often.

Housler was the 69th overall pick, the earliest they had drafted a tight end since they used the 64th overall pick on Johnny McWilliams in 1996. Since then, the only other tight end that had drafted in the first 4 rounds was Leonard Pope, in the 3rd round, 72nd overall, in 2006, and he was largely drafted for his blocking prowess. For years, tight ends in Arizona’s offense were only big blockers. Housler was the exact opposite of that type of player. At 6-5 248, he’s not much of a blocker at all, but he possesses 4.4 speed and the kind of hands that allowed him to catch 71 passes for 1148 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 2 collegiate seasons at Florida International.

While Housler didn’t have much of an impact as a rookie, the offensive mentality shift could still be felt. Tight ends were thrown to 93 times, or on 17.1% of the Cardinals’ passing attempts. For reference, the Cardinals threw to tight ends a total of 110 times from 2008-2010 COMBINED, or on 6.2% of their passing attempts. Todd Heap was their first tight end since Freddie Jones in 2004 to have more than 270 receiving yards in a season, catching 24 passes for 283 yards and a touchdown, while #2 tight end Jeff King was not far behind, catching 27 passes for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns.

All in all, Cardinals’ tight ends caught 65 passes for 712 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. That’s not a lot, but compared to what their tight ends normally did, that was a ton of production. The switch in offensive mentality was there. The talent just wasn’t, as Todd Heap is washed up now heading into his age 32 season, while Jeff King is a mediocre player whose 27 catches last year were actually the 2nd highest total in his 6 year career. Housler, meanwhile, was a mere 3rd round rookie and barely saw the field, catching just 12 passes for 133 yards. However, heading into his 2nd year in the league, Housler is talented enough to be the player who makes the most of the Cardinals’ switch in offensive mentality.

Reports from the Arizona Republic have said that Housler has received a “ton of work” in offseason practices and that he “will be given every chance to chance to become a breakout player.” They also reported that it’s “clear” that the Cardinals will be using the tight end more in the offensive game plan this season and that the Cardinals are “excited” about Housler’s ability.

Larry Fitzgerald was quoted as saying “to be honest with you, I think the tight ends are probably our strongest position on the field right now.” Even if that’s not quite true, it’s still very good to hear. Meanwhile, SI’s Peter King notes that Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt “loves” Housler and believes he could finish the season as the Cardinals’ leading receiver. Housler’s potential is hurt by the Cardinals’ quarterback situation, but no Cardinals’ receiver had more than 689 yards last season so it’s not ridiculous that Housler could finish 2012 as their 2nd leading receiver. He’ll probably finish the season with somewhere between 500-700 receiving yards and be a TE2 with upside in fantasy leagues.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

Cardinals approach Daryl Washington about long term extension

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

According to the Associated Press, the Cardinals have approached Daryl Washington about a long term extension and that the two sides have “talked back and forth,” though no official offer has been made. Washington, a 2010 2nd round pick, still has 2 years left on his rookie contract, but, with no players of note heading into contract years, it appears the Cardinals are looking to get a head start on negotiations with Washington.

Washington was Arizona’s leader in tackles last season and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 10th ranked middle linebacker, grading out above average against the run, in coverage, and as a blitzer, adding 6 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures. Heading into his 3rd year in the league, he has a good chance to make his first Pro Bowl in 2012.

I don’t expect the two sides to reach a deal this offseason though, as it’s more likely that the Cardinals are just having preliminary talks with him so there’s less to do next offseason, when he becomes an obvious extension candidate. The Cardinals likely want to see him prove it again and they have him under contract for 2 years at just over a million dollars combined. It’s very rare to see a player extended after just two seasons. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are obvious exceptions from this offseason, but Brown would have been an unrestricted free agent in 2013 and Gronkowski is just on another level.

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Arizona Cardinals 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

S Kerry Rhodes

I only list Rhodes because the Cardinals don’t have another even remotely good candidate for the tag. Safeties have been franchised 4 times in the last 2 seasons because of how cheap the safety franchise tag is (just 6.2 million in 2012). However, Rhodes isn’t the level of Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Griffin, all of whom have been franchised in the last 2 seasons, at least not anymore. He’s no longer the same player the Jets gave a 5 year, 33.5 million dollar deal to in 2008. Heading into his age 31 season in 2013, Rhodes isn’t getting any better.

Likelihood: Very unlikely

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Dan Williams shows up at 314 pounds for Cardinals’ Training Camp

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

Dan Williams was the 26th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, but has struggled thus far in his career with a combination of weight and injury problems. With injury problems no longer an issue, Williams showed up at Training Camp weighing 314 pounds, which is right where the Cardinals want him. Williams is heading into a pivotal 3rd year, one that could end with him being cut if he doesn’t get his act together, but he’s still got time to make good on his potential.

The Cardinals defense is obviously a lot better if Williams can be the player they thought they were drafting. With Calais Campbell and Darnell Dockett, the Cardinals have the best 3-4 defensive end duo of any team other than the San Francisco 49ers, but nose tackle has been a weak spot for them. Last year, Williams played a disappointing 244 snaps there, leaving the undersized David Carter and the terrible Nick Eason to fill in the rest of the snaps. A healthy and in shape Williams would allow Carter to provide above average depth at all 3 spots and give the Cardinals one of the best defensive lines in the league.

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Cardinals’ Beanie Wells will miss the start of Training Camp

stevenlourie Cardinals, News

With the Cardinals opening camp, the team has placed running back Beanie Wells on the active/PUP list. Unlike the reserve/PUP list, which is for the regular season, Wells can be activated at any time and will not have to miss 6 games. However, he will not practice and it’s a very bad sign for someone who had what was described as “minor” knee surgery way back in January.

Wells assured everyone that he would be ready for week 1, but called himself 75% right now, which is not promising. Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt said that Wells would not be out for an “extended” period of time, but Wells’ comments do suggest that he expects to miss at least a week or two of Training Camp, while Whisenhunt’s comments are pretty vague.

I’ve already got Wells pretty low on my fantasy board because of his history of injuries and because of the glowing reports about his backup, 2011 2nd round pick Ryan Williams. I’ll drop Wells even lower if he starts missing preseason games. At his current ADP in the 6th round, he’s overvalued, while Williams is a good value in the 9th round.

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