Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5) at Arizona Cardinals (3-8-1)

The Steelers looked dead in the water after week 5, with a 1-4 record and franchise quarterback Ben Roethlisberger out for the season, but they’ve won 6 of 7 games since then to climb back into playoff contention. Their early season losses don’t look so bad anymore either, as they all came against teams that are currently 10-2 (Patriots, 49ers, Seahawks, Ravens), with only the Patriots game being decided by more than a field goal. The Steelers haven’t had a tough schedule over the past 7 games since their tough start to the season, but they have picked up a pair of wins over .500 or better teams in the Colts and Rams over that stretch. 

With Roethlisberger out, the Steelers defense has led the way, ranking 8th in first down rate allowed at 33.42%, led by an All-Pro caliber trio of Cameron Heyward, TJ Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick. Their defense has been even better in the past several weeks, leading the league with a 29.76% first down rate allowed since week 7, even more impressive when you consider they lost stud defensive end Stephon Tuitt for the season after week 5. The Steelers’ offense has the 3rd worst first down rate over that stretch at 29.84%, but they switched quarterbacks last week from backup Mason Rudolph to undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges, who seems to be an upgrade, even if only by default. 

The Steelers’ schedule continues to be relatively easy, with a matchup against the Cardinals this week. Not only are the Cardinals 3-8-1, but their 3 wins came by a combined 10 points against teams that are a combined 6-30. In their 8 losses, they have been outscored by 13.25 points per game. They rank 28th in point differential at -96 and 30th in first down rate differential at -6.60% and are one of the worst few teams in the league. The Steelers’ offensive issues keep them in the middle of the pack in my roster rankings, but the Cardinals rank 30th and I have them calculated as 4.5-point underdogs in this matchup. It might not seem like we’re getting a ton of line value with the Steelers at -2, but about 20% of games are decided by 2-4 points, so those are a significant two points. The Steelers are worth a small bet this week in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 Arizona Cardinals 16

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -2

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (6-5) at Arizona Cardinals (3-7-1)

This is one of the tougher games of the week to predict against the spread. On one hand, the Rams were embarrassed last week against the Ravens in a 45-6 loss and teams typically bounce back from bad losses. Since 2002, teams are 60-38 ATS after a loss by 35 points or more and favorites, like the Rams are this week, have won 20 of 24 games straight up after a loss by 35 or more over that time period. On the other hand, this could be a look ahead spot for the Rams with a much harder divisional game on deck against the Seahawks. The Rams will almost definitely be home underdogs in that game and road favorites are just 26-55 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs. 

We’re also not getting any line value in either direction. The Cardinals’ only 3 wins have come by a combined 10 points against teams that are a combined 5-29, while 4 of their 7 losses have come by double digits, with an average margin of defeat of 11.3 points per game. Their point differential of -69 ranks just 28th in the NFL and they rank 29th in first down rate differential at -5.73%. However, the Rams have been a pretty middle of the pack team this season, so they shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal in this game. I have this line calculated at Rams -3, which is exactly where the line is.

Ultimately, what I think this game will come down to is the Rams’ mindset about their playoff chances. Last week’s loss wasn’t a death sentence for their playoff chances, but they’re 2 games behind the 8-3 Vikings for the last NFC wild card spot right now with 5 games to go and probably need to win out and finish 11-5 to give themselves a shot. If the Rams believe their season is over, they probably won’t give their best effort against the Cardinals, especially with a much bigger game on deck. If they believe they still have a shot to make the post-season, we could see a very different level of focus and motivation from them this week after being humbled last week. I think the latter is more likely than the former, but I definitely wouldn’t bet on it. A push might be the most likely result.

Los Angeles Rams 23 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: LA Rams -3

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers: 2019 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-6-1) at San Francisco 49ers (8-1)

The 49ers got off to a dominant 7-0 start to the season, winning their first 7 games by a 18.57 points per game, despite only a +4 turnover margin, and leading the league with an incredible +12.75% first down rate differential. However, then they went into Arizona for Thursday Night Football week 9. The 49ers won the game to improve to 8-0, but they won by just 3 points against a Cardinals team that has consistently ranked in the bottom-5 in first down rate differential this season and the 49ers actually lost the first down rate differential in the game by 7.77%. On top of that, they suffered a pair of serious injuries, with top linebacker Kwon Alexander going down for the season and tight end George Kittle out indefinitely. 

Without Kittle and Alexander, the 49ers suffered their first loss of the season at home to the Seahawks last week and they suffered additional injury losses in that game. Valuable rotational defensive end Ronald Blair is out for the season, left tackle Joe Staley is out indefinitely, after just returning from a 6-game absence last week, and top wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is highly questionable after not practicing all week. The 49ers also got right tackle Mike McGlinchey back last week and could get cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon back this week, but their backups have played well in their absence, so neither is a significant re-addition. 

The 49ers now face the Cardinals again, but, despite what happened last time and all of the injuries the 49ers are dealing with, the Cardinals should still be a relatively easy matchup for the 49ers in San Francisco this week, especially since the 49ers will have a full week to prepare this time. The Cardinals rank 26th in point differential at -59, despite a positive turnover margin at +4, and rank 28th in first down rate differential at -5.64%. The 49ers, despite their loss last week, still rank 2nd in first down rate differential at +8.94%. Their injuries have dropped them to 8th in my roster rankings, but I still have this line calculated at San Francisco -12.5, so we’re getting line value at -10. I can’t take the 49ers with any confidence because this is a tough spot for them in between a tough overtime loss and another big game on deck against the Packers, but the 49ers should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Arizona Cardinals 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -10

Confidence: None

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2019 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-5-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)

The Buccaneers are 2-6, but they’ve been competitive in most of their games, despite facing the 5th toughest schedule in the NFL in terms of DVOA (6 of 8 opponents are 5-3 or better). Only two of their six losses have come by more than one score and the Buccaneers actually won the first down rate in both of those losses. Against the 49ers week 1, the Buccaneers won the first down rate battle by 3.85% but lost the game 31-17, primarily because they lost the turnover battle by two. Against the Panthers week 6, they won the first down rate battle by 1.33% but lost the game 37-26, primarily because they lost the turnover battle by 6. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and the Buccaneers rank 19th in first down rate differential on the season at -1.05%, despite that tough schedule. 

The Cardinals have one more win than the Buccaneers, but they haven’t played nearly as well. Their 3 wins have come by a combined 10 points against teams that are a combined 3-22, while 3 of their losses have come by 17 points or more. They have a significantly worse point differential than the Buccaneers (-56 vs. -22), despite a significantly better turnover margin (+3 vs. -5), and they rank just 29th in first down rate differential at -6.12%, despite an easier schedule. 

I have this line calculated at Tampa Bay -6.5, so we’re getting some line value with the Buccaneers at -4, although not enough to take them confidently. The Cardinals aren’t in a good spot, between a close loss to the 49ers and a rematch next week, but the Buccaneers aren’t either, between a close loss to the Seahawks and a home game against the division leading Saints. Both teams could be flat this week, so while Tampa Bay should be the right side, this is just a low confidence pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay -4

Confidence: Low

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 9 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (7-0) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)

The Patriots have gotten a lot of attention for how they’ve started the season, but the 49ers have arguably been better. Their point differential (+130) is behind New England’s (+189), but they’ve also played one fewer game and they’ve been far less dependent on the turnover margin (+17 vs. +4), which tends to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. In terms of first down rate differential, the 49ers hold the edge 12.75% to 11.61%. That’s despite the fact that the 49ers have faced a tougher schedule than the Patriots.

The 49ers’ schedule does get easier this week, as they head to Arizona for Thursday Night Football. The Cardinals are 3-4-1, but their three wins have come by an average of 3.3 points per game against 3 teams that are a combined 3-21, while their four losses have come by an average of 15.8 points per game. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 30th at -7.59%. They should have a lot of trouble with the 49ers, like they have with all competent or better competition this season. 

Unfortunately, we’re not getting much line value with the 49ers, as this line has skyrocketed from San Francisco -6.5 on the early line last week to San Francisco -10, after the 49ers blew out the Panthers last week, while the Cardinals were blown out in New Orleans. I have this line calculated at San Francisco -12, but there’s not enough here for the 49ers to be worth betting, especially since these Thursday night games can be tough to predict.

I am also locking in TB +6 @ SEA before that line moves any more. I am considering that for Pick of the Week. 

San Francisco 49ers 26 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -10

Confidence: Low

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints: 2019 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (3-3-1) at New Orleans Saints (6-1)

The Saints won 5 straight games with backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater under center, but it’s still big for the Saints to be getting Drew Brees back from his thumb injury this week. Since taking over for Drew Brees in the first quarter of their week 2 game, Bridgewater has led the offense to 113 first downs and 12 offensive touchdowns on 366 snaps, a 34.15% first down rate that isn’t bad, but that is a far cry from last year’s 43.48%. The biggest reason why they’ve been winning has been the play of their defense, which has allowed just a 29.52% first down rate in 4 games since getting defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins back from injury. With Brees re-joining this offense, this team is incredibly dangerous. 

The news that Brees will be playing has pushed this line up to New Orleans -12, but I still like the Saints a lot this week. Their opponents the Arizona Cardinals have gotten some attention for their 3-game winning streak, but those 3 wins have come against teams that are a combined 3-18 and they came by a combined 10 points. Their 3 losses, meanwhile, have come by a combined 41 points. They rank 24th in the NFL in point differential at -31, 29th in first down rate differential at -5.67%, and 23rd in my roster rankings. As big as this line is, I think it should be bigger, calculating it at New Orleans -15. 

The Saints are also in a great spot going into a bye, as big home favorites tend to take care of business before a week off. Home favorites of 7+ are 35-14 ATS before a bye since 2002. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are in a tough spot, needing to turn around and play the division leading 49ers in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, a game in which they are 6.5-point home underdogs on the early line. It’s very tough for big underdogs to cover before being big underdogs again, as underdogs of 6+ are 58-90 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again. On top of that, teams are 42-74 ATS since 2014 before being home underdogs of 6+. The Saints should be able to win with ease and cover the spread as well.

New Orleans Saints 30 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -12

Confidence: High

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: 2019 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (2-3-1) at New York Giants (2-4)

This is one of the tougher games of the week to predict. This line favoring the Giants by a field goal at home suggests these two teams are about even and that’s about right. Both the Giants and Cardinals have gotten off to less than stellar starts, with just two wins each against the Buccaneers/Redskins and Bengals/Falcons respectively, but both teams are getting better going forward. The Cardinals are getting top cornerback Patrick Peterson back from a six-game suspension, while the Giants are getting their top two offensive playmakers Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley back from 1-game and 3-game absences respectively. I’m taking the Giants because this is an early game on the East Coast and the Giants are on longer rest, but this is close to a coin flip and a push might be the most likely result.

Final Update: This line has shifted to 3.5 for some reason, so I’m switching this pick to Arizona. This is still a no confidence pick.

New York Giants 26 Arizona Cardinals 23

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3.5

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3-1)

Going into the season, I thought the Falcons had a good chance to be significantly improved in 2019, after their 2018 season was derailed by injuries to key players like running back Devonta Freeman, linebacker Deion Jones, and safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal, who all missed close to the whole season last season. Instead, the Falcons have gotten off to a horrible 1-4 start and rank 28th in the NFL with a -50 point differential, only ahead of the four winless teams.

Turnovers were the problem to start the season, but in the past two weeks they’ve been outscored by a combined 35 points against the Titans and Texans in games in which they had a combined -1 turnover margin. Devonta Freeman and Ricardo Allen have not returned to form after their injuries. Keanu Neal is out for the season again. Damontee Kazee, who was a solid starting safety last year in the absence of Neal and Allen, has struggled mightily in his new spot at cornerback. 

Deion Jones has been healthy and has played well, but, while the Falcons’ defense was not bad down the stretch with him healthy last year, that has not carried over into 2019. A defense that allowed a 41.13% first down rate in 2018 (31st in the NFL) and a 36.36% first down rate in the games in which Jones was healthy has allowed a ridiculous 43.73% first down rate allowed in 2019, which would be the worst in the NFL if the Dolphins weren’t a historically bad team. Their offense actually ranks 5th in first down rate at 40.00%, despite the lack of a running game, but even still the Falcons rank 27th as a team in first down rate differential. Making matters worse on defense, they will be without top cornerback Desmond Trufant in this game due to injury. 

The Cardinals aren’t a great team, ranking 28th in first down rate differential and 27th in my roster rankings, but I still have this line calculated at even, so the Cardinals have a good chance to win this game outright at home. We aren’t getting great line value with the Cardinals at +2.5, but they’re in a much better spot than the Falcons, who have to turn around and host the Rams next week. Road favorites are just 24-50 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs, which the Falcons almost definitely will be next week. I wish we were getting the full field goal, but the Cardinals should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes and the money line is worth a bet as well.

Update: This line has moved up to a field goal in some places. The Cardinals are worth a bet at that number.

Arizona Cardinals 27 Atlanta Falcons 24 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Medium

Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals: 2019 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (0-3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-4)

The Bengals were favored by 4 points on the early line last week and, despite getting blown out on Monday Night Football by the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, they still briefly opened as 3.5-point favorites this week, before the line quickly dropped to 3. Even at 3, I was still considering betting on the Cardinals, as that line suggests these two teams are about even, which I didn’t quite agree with. Neither of these teams has a win, but the Cardinals have a better first down rate differential (-7.18% vs. -10.15%) and seem to be in a better spot, as the Bengals may not be fully focused against a winless non-conference opponent, 6 days after a blowout loss, and before a divisional rivalry game against the Ravens. However, then I saw the injury reports on Friday.

The Bengals have had terrible injury luck thus far this season and, while they’ll still be without several players, including #1 wide receiver AJ Green and left tackle Cordy Glenn, they do get back a pair of key contributors on the defensive line, Ryan Glasgow and Carl Lawson, while the Cardinals could be without starting wide receivers Christian Kirk and Damiere Byrd, starting left guard Justin Pugh, starting cornerback Tramaine Brock, starter edge defender Terrell Suggs, and rotational defensive lineman Zach Allen. Only Allen and Kirk have been ruled out, but none of the others got in a full practice on Friday, so there’s too much certainty to bet the Cardinals right now. Depending on injury reports Sunday morning, I may decide to place a small bet on the Cardinals. They’re the pick for pick ‘em purposes regardless, as even if the Cardinals are without everyone I still have this line calculated at Cincinnati -3.

Sunday Update: Pugh, Brock, and Suggs are all playing for the Cardinals. I’m going to put a small bet on the Cardinals.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Cincinnati Bengals 19 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Arizona +3

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: 2019 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2-1)

The Seahawks picked up their first loss of the season last week at home against the Teddy Bridgewater led Saints, but they actually had a better first down rate differential last week than they had in either of their two wins. They won their first two games of the season by a combined 3 points and had an even first down rate differential through 2 games. Last week, they lost by 6 points despite a +3.47% first down rate differential because they allowed a couple of return touchdowns, which swung the game on two snaps. 

Relatively healthy compared to the rest of the league, with defensive end Ezekiel Ansah back in the lineup after missing the first two games of the season, the Seahawks are an above average team that is well positioned in the NFC if they can remain healthy. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have yet to win their first game and rank just 29th in first down rate differential through 2 games. However, I actually like the Cardinals’ chances of catching the Seahawks off guard a little bit this week, because the Seahawks are in a terrible spot. 

Not only do the Seahawks have to play the Rams next week, they have to do so in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 56-77 ATS since 2012 before Thursday Night Football and road favorites are just 24-50 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs, which the Seahawks likely will be (+2.5 on the early line). This is an obvious look ahead spot for the Seahawks, so even though we’re not getting any real line value (I have this line calculated at Seattle -5), the Cardinals are worth a small bet this week. They likely won’t be getting the Seahawks’ best effort and they will be desperate to get their first win against a divisional rival. They’re a competent enough team to keep this close and possibly pull the upset.

Seattle Seahawks 30 Arizona Cardinals 27

Pick against the spread: Arizona +5.5

Confidence: Medium