Chargers

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 10 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)

The Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league in each of the last two seasons. This season, the Chargers have been missing wide receiver Steve Johnson, running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and cornerback Jason Verrett for most, if not all of the season thus far. Joining them this week will be starting middle linebackers Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown and starting wide receiver Travis Benjamin.

The Chargers are going into a bye, which is good news from an injury standpoint, as it gives them time to get their players back, but it’s also bad news because it puts them in a bad spot this week. Home favorites of 1 to 5.5 points are just 30-58 ATS before a regular season bye since 2002, as teams tend to get caught looking forward to their week off in this spot. The Chargers are 4.5 point favorites, so they fall right in the range. That’s also too many points, given the Chargers’ injury situation and the fact that the Dolphins are a quality opponent. The Dolphins are 12th in first down rate differential, just a few spots behind the Chargers, who enter this game in 8th. Even banged up and in a bad spot, the Chargers will probably win this game, but 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so the Dolphins are the right pick if we’re getting 4.5 with them. There’s not enough for me to put money on them though.

San Diego Chargers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +4.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (3-5)

The Titans may be just 4-4, but they actually rank 5th in the NFL in first down percentage differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -1 point differential on the season, despite being -5 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 5 plays, they have a +33 point differential (which would be 9th best in the NFL) and have quietly played very solid football this season. They have 17 more first downs than their opponents on the season and, in offensive touchdowns, they have a +7 advantage (22 to 15).

The Chargers are also better than their record at 3-5, as all 5 of their losses have come by 8 points or fewer. In fact, the Chargers have lost just 3 games by more than 8 points in the past 2 seasons, 24 games. However, at the same time, they have just 5 wins over that time period by more than 4 points, which is what it’ll take to cover this spread. They rank 7th in first down percentage differential, which is better than their record, but still worse than Tennessee. The Chargers have faced the tougher schedule, but this line should still be no higher than 3, especially since the Chargers enter this game very banged up.

The Chargers have been missing guys like wide receiver Steve Johnson, running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and cornerback Jason Verrett for most, if not all of the season thus far. On top of that, the Chargers will have a number of injured players inactive this week. Linebacker Denzel Perryman, Jatavis Brown, and Jeremiah Attachou are all out and all 3 are starters when healthy, and tight end Hunter Henry will join them, leaving the aging Antonio Gates to be an every down tight end. The rookie Henry has vastly outplayed Gates this season, as the veteran looks out of gas. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I love getting 4.5 points with the Titans. As long as this line is higher than 4, the Titans are worth a bet again this week, as they continue to be underrated.

San Diego Chargers 24 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +4.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (3-4) at Denver Broncos (5-2)

Last week, the Broncos were 7 point home favorites over the Chargers on the early line, but the line has since moved to just 4 in favor of the Broncos at home. Ordinarily, I love to fade significant week-to-week line movement, but the Chargers have just 4 losses by more than 7 points in the past 2 seasons, so we would have been getting incredible line value with the Chargers at 7. The Chargers are just 7-16 over the past 2 seasons, but that’s largely the result of a 4-12 record in games decided by a 7 points or fewer. Last week, they finally won a close game, knocking off a good Falcons team in overtime in Atlanta. That pushed their record on the season to 3-4, but they’ve been better than their record, as they enter this game 8th in first down percentage differential; their biggest loss this season was a 6 point overtime loss in Kansas City, a game in which they blew a 21-0 lead. Their other 3 losses came by 4 points or fewer.

The Chargers have had a lot of injuries this season, most notably losing running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, and cornerback Jason Verrett for the season with injury, but they have continued to play well. Verrett’s absence has been offset by the emergence of #3 overall pick Joey Bosa, who has been one of the most disruptive defenders in the league since returning from a 4-game absence to start the season. Meanwhile, youngsters Melvin Gordon and Tyrell Williams have stepped up big-time on offense, while veteran quarterback Philip Rivers continues to play at a high level. This week, they get cornerback Brandon Flowers back from a 4-week absence with a concussion, a big boost for this secondary.

The Broncos are 2nd in that first down percentage differential, but they have had inconsistent quarterback play. On top of that, San Diego is 9-3 ATS on the road in the past 2 seasons. The Chargers could be tired coming off of that huge upset overtime victory in Atlanta, but teams actually do well the week after an upset road overtime victory, going 57-44 in that spot since 1989. This line is right where it should be at 4, so I can’t take San Diego with any confidence, but they’re the pick here in pick ‘em leagues.

Denver Broncos 20 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-2)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Chargers are in a tough spot. Because of a weird scheduling quirk, this road game against the Falcons is wedged between two meetings in a three week period with division rival Denver on San Diego’s schedule. The Chargers won last week at home in upset fashion and then have to travel to Denver next week after this game, where the early line has them as 7 point road underdogs. That puts San Diego in a couple of bad spots. For one, teams are 53-76 ATS off of a win as home underdogs, as teams tend to be overconfident and/or overvalued off of a victory like that. Two, underdogs of 6 or more are 47-74 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6 or more again, as the Chargers likely will be next week. The Falcons are a quality opponent and the Chargers could easily not be as focused as they need to be to keep this one close, given how bad of a spot this is for them.

On the other hand, the Chargers almost never get blown out. I know this line is only 6 and a 7+ point win isn’t necessarily a blowout, but the Chargers have lost just 3 games by more than 8 points in the last two seasons combined and just 8 games by more than 6 points. They’ve been especially good on the road, where they’re 8-3 ATS in the past 2 seasons and haven’t lost been more than 7 points in any of their previous 9 road games. The Chargers enter this game incredibly banged up, with key guys like Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, and Jason Verrett out for the season, but they’re still playing pretty well. Despite their 2-4 record, they rank 7th in first down percentage differential and haven’t lost by more than 6 points all season. That’s actually one spot better than the 4-2 Falcons, who rank 8th in that metric. I’m taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident in them at all because they’re in a terrible spot.

Atlanta Falcons 31 San Diego Chargers 27

Pick against the spread: San Diego +6

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (4-1) at San Diego Chargers (1-4)

Going into the season, I had the Chargers on my underrated list. They went 4-12 in 2015, but that was largely a result of bad injury luck and a poor record in close games (3-9 in games decided by 8 points or fewer). Both of those things tend to even out in the long run, which is why I expected significantly more wins for them this season, but they haven’t evened out so far for the Chargers. The Chargers are 1-4 despite a +10 point differential and a +2.04% first down percentage differential (11th in the NFL), as all 4 of their losses have come by 6 points or fewer, while their lone win came by 24 points week 2 against the Jaguars.

The Chargers are legitimately a few plays away from being 4-1 or even 5-0, but blew late leads to Kansas City, Indianapolis, and New Orleans. Meanwhile, they’ve also lost top wide receiver Keenan Allen, talented passing down back Danny Woodhead, slot wide receiver Steve Johnson, and top cornerback Jason Verrett for the season with injuries, while cornerback Brandon Flowers is expected to miss his 3rd straight game with a concussion. The Chargers’ record in close games should still even out in the long run and they should still win more games this season than they did last season, but there’s no denying the amount of talent the Chargers are missing with injury.

The Broncos are a much more talented team and were 4-0 going into last week, prior to a disappointing 23-16 home loss last week against the Atlanta Falcons. Despite that loss, they actually still rank 1st in the NFL in first down percentage differential at 5.98%. Their defense played well against the Falcons all things considered, as the Falcons rank #1 in the NFL in first down percentage, but had just an average offensive performance against the Broncos. On the season, the Broncos are 7th in the NFL in first down percentage allowed, despite facing some tough offenses thus far (Carolina, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Atlanta).

The offense was the problem for them, as they struggled to move the ball all day, despite being at home and facing a mediocre at best Atlanta defense. The Broncos still rank 9th in the NFL in first down percentage though and get quarterback Trevor Siemian back from injury this week, after he missed last week’s start with an injured shoulder. In Siemian’s absence, first round rookie Paxton Lynch looked overmatched and not nearly ready to be an NFL quarterback. Lynch might have more long-term upside than Siemian, but Siemian has been a more than serviceable quarterback through the early part of the season. The underwhelming offensive performance last week is cause for concern, especially considering how stagnant their offense was for most of last season, but Siemian is better than either of the quarterbacks they had last season and the offensive line and running game have been better as well.

More concerning is the fact that head coach Gary Kubiak will miss this game with migraine issues. It’s unclear how the team will handle his absence, which makes the Broncos a much riskier bet. The health of Siemian’s shoulder just a week and a half after the injury is also a risk. Talent wise, the Broncos should be able to win this game pretty easily, as the Chargers have no homefield advantage (6-12 ATS at home since 2014), but I wouldn’t bet on them unless I could get lower than 3, which seems unlikely. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so I can’t be confident in Denver at 3.5.

Denver Broncos 23 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Denver -3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-3) at Oakland Raiders (3-1)

Going into the season, I had the Chargers on my underrated list. They went 4-12 in 2015, but that was largely a result of bad injury luck and a poor record in close games (3-9 in games decided by 8 points or fewer). Both of those things tend to even out in the long run, which is why I expected significantly more wins for them this season, but they haven’t evened out so far for the Chargers. The Chargers are legitimately a few plays away from being 4-0, but blew late leads to Kansas City, Indianapolis, and New Orleans. Meanwhile, they’ve also lost top wide receiver Keenan Allen, talented passing down back Danny Woodhead, slot wide receiver Steve Johnson, and top cornerback Jason Verrett for the season with injuries. Verrett is their newest loss and he’s as big of a loss to this defense as Allen is to this offense, as the 2014 1st round pick has become one of the best cornerbacks in the game.

The Chargers record in close games should still even out in the long run and they should still win more games than they did last season, but there’s no denying the amount of talent the Chargers are missing with injury. Tight end Antonio Gates is expected back from a 2-game absence, while #3 overall pick Joey Bosa will be making his NFL debut after missing the first 4 games with hamstring problems, but the Chargers will also be without cornerback Brandon Flowers. The Raiders were also on my underrated list before the season started and they’ve delivered so far, starting 3-1. It’s tough to tell exactly how good they are as their first 4 games have decided by a combined 16 points, but I still think they have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL. This line is way too low at 3.5, so I’m going with the Raiders.

Oakland Raiders 27 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Oakland -3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (1-2)

Last year, the Chargers went 4-12, thanks in large part to a lot of close losses and a lot of injuries. These things tend to average out in the long run, but so far this year they have not for the Chargers. The Chargers could be 3-0, but blew late leads against both Kansas City and Indianapolis and lost both games by less than a touchdown. On top of that, they’re already without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Steve Johnson and running back Danny Woodhead for the year with injury. Defensive end Joey Bosa and tight end Antonio Gates remain out, while left tackle King Dunlap, cornerback Brandon Flowers, and possibly right tackle Joe Barksdale will join them on the sideline this week. That’s a lot of talent that’s inactive.

The Saints also have a lot of talent that’s inactive. Their best injured player is left tackle Terron Armstead, one of the best in the game. That’s a huge blow to this offense. However, most of the missing talent is on defense, where they aren’t that good to begin with. Safety Kenny Vaccaro returns from a one-game absence this week, but the Saints are still without first round pick defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins and starting cornerbacks Delvin Breaux and PJ Williams. The least talented defense in the league, the Saints are giving a pair of undrafted free agents significant snaps at cornerback.

The Chargers have been much better this season though, even with all of their injuries. While the Saints rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential so far this season, the Chargers rank 9th. Despite their 4-12 record and all of their injuries, the Chargers still finished 13th in that metric last season. This line is at 4, which suggests the Chargers are significantly better than the Saints (1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer). I agree with that, but we’re not getting a ton of line value with the Chargers, so I can’t be confident in them. I’m also concerned that the Chargers are 6-11 ATS in their last 17 home games, as they’re known for having poor home crowds, so this is a no confidence pick.

San Diego Chargers 33 New Orleans Saints 27

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Colts, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

The Chargers’ offense continues to be bitten by the injury bug. After finishing last season with the 8th most adjusted games lost to injury of any offense in the league, the Chargers lost #1 wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season week 1 and running back Danny Woodhead (the Chargers’ leader in yards from scrimmage in 2015) for the season with a torn ACL week 2. They will also be without veteran tight end Antonio Gates in this one, while rookie defensive end Joey Bosa (the 3rd overall pick in the draft) remains sidelined with a hamstring on defense.

Despite that, they still won at home last week, by the final score of 38-14 against a capable though mediocre Jaguars team. They’re more talented overall than last season, so they can withstand injuries better. Plus, even with all of their injuries last season, they outgained their opponents by 158 yards on the season and went 4-12 largely as a result of bad luck and things that are easy to clean up (close losses, long return touchdowns, missed tackles on special teams).

The Colts are not much better than the Jaguars and they too are dealing with injuries. While Vontae Davis, Henry Anderson, and Trent Cole are expected to return from injury this week, they could be limited; Davis and Anderson are making their season debuts, the latter after a late 2015 ACL tear. They’re also still without #2 and #3 cornerbacks Patrick Robinson and Darius Butler and will additionally be without starting wide receiver Donte Moncrief and right guard Denzelle Good with injury this week. An old team in general, especially on defense, the Colts have one of the weaker rosters in the NFL, outside of the quarterback position. This game is in Indianapolis, but the Chargers have covered in 7 of their last 9 road games. The Chargers don’t get great home crowds, so it makes sense that they would be travel well (they’re also 3-6 ATS in their last 9 home games).

On top of that, the Colts could be distracted with a game in London on deck; teams are just 6-18 ATS all-time before a game in London. It makes sense that a long trip would serve as a big distraction. I wish this line hadn’t moved from the full field goal it was at last week on the early line. We lost all line value as a result of the Chargers’ big win last week. The line is now between 1-2 points. It doesn’t really matter what this line is as long as it’s under 3, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. I think the Chargers will win straight up, but not enough to take them confidently as favorites of less than a field goal. If you need something to bet on in this game, the money line is a good idea at +110. This game seems like a toss up at worst for the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 27 Indianapolis Colts 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +1.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at San Diego Chargers (0-1)

Before the season started, the Chargers were one of the teams I expected to have a significant jump in wins this season, after winning just 4 in 2015. That theory was based on the assumptions that the Chargers would have better luck both in winning close games and avoiding injury, two things that tend to be pretty unpredictable from season to season. Sure enough, the Chargers opened the season by blowing a 21 point lead in Kansas City and losing by 6 in overtime, after losing star wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season with a torn ACL mid-game.

The Chargers’ luck in close games still figures to improve going forward (they’re 3-10 in games decided by 8 points or fewer over the past 2 seasons), but Allen is a massive loss for this team. The Chargers moved the chains at a 76.49% rate when Allen was healthy last season, as opposed to 67.23% when he was out of the lineup. Injuries remain a problem for them, as Allen joins 2016 #3 overall pick Joey Bosa and #3 wide receiver Steve Johnson on the sideline. Bosa remains out with a hamstring issue and has yet to practice, following a long holdout, while Johnson is out for the year with a knee injury. Tyrell Williams, a 2015 undrafted free agent with 4 career catches, will have to play a big role in the passing game now, as the #2 receiver opposite free agent acquisition Travis Benjamin.

The Jaguars are missing a pair of starters, cornerback Prince Amukamara and running back Chris Ivory, but the Chargers are still missing more players and more important players. I had the Chargers as better than the Jaguars coming into the season, but these two teams are about even now. On top of that, the Chargers near win in Kansas City could make it tough for them to give their best effort this week, as teams understandably are flat off of close road overtime losses, as long as they aren’t road underdogs the following week. Road underdogs tend to do well off of a road loss, so that cancels out. The Chargers are home favorites here though and teams that are not road underdogs are just 30-60 ATS off of a road overtime loss since 2002.

The Chargers also seem to have next to no homefield advantage, going 5-11 ATS at home since 2014, as opposed to 6-11 ATS on the road. That’s probably a big part of the reason why they’re considering moving up the road to Los Angeles in the near future, though it’s unclear if doing so would actually improve their home crowds. There’s not quite enough here for me to put money on Jacksonville, but I like getting the full field goal with them. If the line were to move to 3.5 by game time, I’d consider putting money on them because I think there’s a good chance this is a field goal game (1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal).

San Diego Chargers 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

The Chiefs are favored here by 6.5 points at home over the Chargers. If you took these two teams’ records from last season, that makes sense, as the Chargers won just 4 games and the Chiefs won 11. However, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. While the Chargers only won 4 games, they were competitive in most of their games, only losing by more than 8 points three times, including just 1 loss by more than 8 points on the road. Close losses weren’t the end of their bad luck last season, as they had the 2nd worst special teams performance in the league in terms of DVOA and had a -5 differential in return touchdowns. Both of those things tend to be pretty random and hard to predict on a year-to-year basis and even average performance in both of those metrics helps this team win more close games. They actually outgained opponents on the season by 158 yards and finished 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 5 spots behind the Chiefs.

That’s despite the fact that they had among the most injuries in the league last season, finishing with the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. They were especially banged up down the stretch and still managed to keep it close with the Chiefs week 14, covering as huge road underdogs in a 7 point loss. The Chargers are much healthier this season, with the likes of Keenan Allen, Orlando Franklin, and King Dunlap returning after injury plagued 2015 seasons. They also added Matt Slauson and Casey Hayward, two very underrated signings, this off-season, though they lost long-time safety Eric Weddle and will be without #3 overall pick Joey Bosa in this one, as he works back into shape after a stupid off-season holdout.

Instead, the Chiefs are the ones coming into the season banged up, as Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston, two of their best players, will miss the start of the season with knee injuries. Both were out for last year’s close call with the Chargers week 14, but the Chiefs are also now without top cornerback Sean Smith, who left as a free agent this off-season. This line shouldn’t be any higher than 3 (suggesting these two teams are about even) and the Chargers actually played better on the road last season than at home, where they have very few fans, so I like the Chargers’ chances of taking this one straight up. At the very least, the game should be even closer than the 7 point game played between these two teams in Kansas City week 14 last season and the Chargers’ chances of winning straight up are better than the +230 money line suggests.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +230

Pick against the spread: San Diego +6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]