Chargers

San Diego Chargers 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Chargers, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Even though the Chargers finished last season 4-12, Philip Rivers was one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL once again last season. How is that possible? Well, for one, the Chargers were a lot better than their record suggested last season; if last season had been played 1000 times, they definitely would have averaged significantly more than 4 wins per season. Their 4-12 record was largely the result of 9 losses by 8 points or fewer, a -5 return touchdown margin, and poor special teams (31st in the NFL in special teams DVOA). They actually outgained opponents on the season by 158 yards.

All of this suggests that this wasn’t a bad team, but rather one that had some bad luck and lost a lot of games that could have gone either way. They actually finished the season ranked 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, led by an offense that moved the chains at a 72.28% rate, 11th in the NFL. Rivers deserves most of the credit as he was able to lead a capable offense despite a tremendous amount of injuries around him. Not only did the Chargers have some bad luck on the field, but they also had bad luck in terms of keeping players on the field. They finished 25th in the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury on offense.

Despite that, Rivers still completed 66.1% of his passes for an average of 7.25 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. He finished the season 14th in the NFL among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus, making 8 times in the 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus’ history in which Rivers has graded out above average. He also gets to reunite with Ken Whisenhunt this season. Whisenhunt was the Chargers’ offensive coordinator in 2013, arguably the best season of Rivers’ career (69.5% completion, 8.23 YPA, 32 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, #3 ranked quarterback on Pro Football Focus), but left to take the head coaching job in Tennessee the following off-season. Whisenhunt flopped as a head coach, but has always been a great offensive coordinator, especially when he’s been able to work with veteran quarterbacks, so Rivers should be thrilled to have him back.

The only concern with Rivers is that he’s going into his age 35 season, but he should have a couple more solid seasons left in the tank. Quarterbacks like Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, and Drew Brees have all played well into their mid-30s in recent years, so Rivers certainly could as well. He’s also never missed a start in 10 seasons as the starter, dating back in 2006, even playing the 2007 AFC Championship on a partially torn ACL. They need him to continue to stay on the field, as undrafted rookie Mike Bercovici is the backup and would almost certainly struggle if forced into action as a rookie.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Chargers made a big effort to upgrade the offensive line last off-season, rightfully so because their offensive line was terrible in 2014, adding left guard Orlando Franklin and right tackle Joseph Barksdale in free agency, but they once again struggled upfront in 2015 because of injuries. They had the 3rd most adjusted games lost to injury on the offensive line. Barksdale played well, but Franklin and left tackle King Dunlap were limited to 622 and 317 snaps respectively last season by injuries and both also struggled mightily when on the field.

Franklin has a good chance to bounce back though. Prior to last season, when he graded out 78th out of 81 eligible guards on Pro Football Focus, he had finished in the top-17 at his position in 3 straight seasons, playing right tackle in 2012 and 2013 and left guard in 2014. That earned him a much deserved 5-year, 36.5 million dollar contract from the Chargers and, though he struggled in his first season, there’s a very good chance he’s a lot better and healthier in 2016. That would benefit the Chargers greatly.

Dunlap was also good before last season, grading out 37th among offensive tackles in 2012, 6th in 2013, and 23rd in 2014, making 39 starts over that time period. However, I’m less confident in a bounce-back year from him than I am in a bounce-back year from Franklin, because of Dunlap’s age. Going into his age 31 season, it’s very possible his best days are behind him. That’s not to say he couldn’t have a solid year in 2016 if he stays healthy, but he’s probably on the decline. Owed a non-guaranteed 6.75 million in his age 32 season in 2017, this is a make or break season for Dunlap. If doesn’t bounce back, he could easily be a cap casualty next off-season.

As I mentioned, Barksdale starts on the right side. A 2011 3rd round pick, Barksdale was a bit of a late bloomer, struggling mightily in the first 2 seasons of his career in Oakland, but turned it around in 2013 and 2014 with the Rams, after being let go by the Raiders. The Chargers got him surprisingly cheap on a one-year deal last off-season and it really paid off, as he was their best offensive lineman by far and the only one to make all 16 starts. He’s made 45 of 48 possible starts in the last 3 seasons, grading out 25th among offensive tackles in 2013 and 21st among offensive tackles last season. He even played some left tackle last season and that could be where the Chargers envision him long-term. They had to pay a little bit more to keep him this time around, re-signing him for 4-year, 22.2 million, but that’s well worth it.

In addition to re-signing Barksdale, the Chargers also signed veteran Matt Slauson this off-season. Slauson was a very capable guard in Chicago last season, finishing 9th among guards on Pro Football Focus, so it was a surprise when the Bears let him go, following the selection of Cody Whitehead in the 2nd round of the April’s draft. The Bears’ loss is the Chargers’ gain. Aside from 11 games missed with a torn pectoral in 2014, Slauson has never missed a game with injury since becoming a starter in 2010 and, aside from that injury shortened 2014 season, he’s also graded out above average in every season since 2010. He’s going into his age 30 season, but he should have at least a couple more solid seasons left in the tank. He was a steal on a 2-year, 3 million dollar deal this off-season.

Slauson is expected to initially start at center, even though he’s been a guard for his whole career. Center was major problem position for the Chargers last season, so much so that 3rd round rookie Max Tuerk was penciled in as the starter before they signed Slauson. DJ Fluker is the right guard, but the 2013 1st round pick has largely been a bust thus far, grading out below average in the first 2 years of his career at right tackle and then really struggling after being moved inside to guard last season, grading out 67th out of 81 eligible guards.

The Chargers picked up Fluker’s 5th year option for 2017 this off-season, suggesting they still have hope for him long-term, but that option is only guaranteed for injury, so he’s no lock to remain on the roster beyond this season if he doesn’t turn it around. I also wouldn’t rule out him getting benched mid-season, Slauson sliding over to right guard, and Tuerk taking over at center. Either way, it looks like a much improved offensive line with the addition of Slauson along with Dunlap and Franklin getting healthy.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The biggest single injury the Chargers suffered last season was Keenan Allen’s season ending lacerated kidney. Allen isn’t expected to have any long-term complications from the injury, but it derailed a dominant 3rd season in the league for the 2013 3rd round pick. In 8 games before going down, Allen caught 67 passes for 725 yards and 4 touchdowns (134 catches for 1450 yards and 8 touchdowns over 16 games), grading out 21st among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus.

His absence had a significant effect on Rivers’ numbers, as he completed 69.8% of his passes for an average of 7.91 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in the first 8 games of the season, as opposed to 62.0% completion, 6.51 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in the final 8 games of the season. The Chargers moved the chains at a 76.49% rate in those first 8 games, but fell to 67.23% in the final 8 games. Having him back healthy is going to be a major boost to this offense because he’s one of the top receivers in the NFL and easily the best pass catcher on the Chargers’ roster. In 3 years in the league, he and Rivers have connected for 215 catches for 2554 yards and 16 touchdowns in 37 games and he’s still only going into his age 24 season. The Chargers made the wise decision to lock him up on a 4-year, 45 million dollar extension this off-season, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal.

With Allen out, Malcom Floyd led Charger wide receivers in snaps played last season, but he retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 35 season. The Chargers replaced him by adding Travis Benjamin on a 4-year, 24 million dollar deal. Benjamin was the Browns #1 receiver last year, catching 68 passes for 966 yards and 5 touchdowns. He’ll have better quarterback play in San Diego, but probably won’t match those numbers as he’ll see significantly fewer targets. His numbers were inflated by getting so many targets last season and he actually only caught 54.8% of the 124 passes through his way, grading out slightly below average overall. He’s also a one-year wonder as he had 6 career starts in 3 seasons prior to last season. He’s a marginal starting receiver at best, but he’s not a terrible option to replace Floyd and the Chargers didn’t pay him a ton.

Steve Johnson was supposed to be the 3rd receiver, but injured his knee before the season started and is expected to miss the whole season. Johnson’s not the most important player on this offense, but they don’t have a clear replacement 3rd receiver. Dontrelle Inman played 691 snaps last season because of all of the injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but finished 111th out of 121 eligible wide receivers in the first significant action of the 2011 undrafted free agent’s career. He’s expected to be pushed for playing time by 2015 undrafted free agent Tyrell Williams, who played just 30 snaps as a rookie. It’s a much thinner group of wide receivers without Johnson, but Allen is the one they can’t afford to lose again.

Last year, the Chargers used a lot of two-tight end sets to mask their depth problems at wide receiver and could do so again this season. Both of the Chargers’ tight ends, Ladarius Green and Antonio Gates, were scheduled to be free agents. Green, who was originally drafted to be a long-term replacement for Gates, signed in Pittsburgh on a 4-year, 20 million dollar deal this off-season, but the Chargers brought back the veteran Gates on a 2-year, 11 million for what will be his 14th year in the league, all with the Chargers. Despite going into his age 36 season, Gates could still have something left in the tank. He played well last season when he was on the field, missing 5 games due to a combination of suspension and injury, but catching 56 passes for 630 yards and 5 touchdowns in the other 11 games.

The future Hall of Fame tight end graded out 7th among tight ends on Pro Football Focus last season, struggling as a run blocker, but coming in 6th in pure pass catching grade. He was 14th in pure pass catching grade in 2013, 7th in 2014, and has graded out above average in that aspect in every season of Pro Football Focus’ history, dating back to 2007. He can’t do this forever, but he could easily still be an asset in the passing game in 2016. His 2015 numbers translate to 81/916/7 over 16 games. If he comes close to that, he’ll be among the league’s better receiving tight ends once again.

The Chargers also used an early 2nd round pick on tight end Hunter Henry out of Arkansas (the draft’s consensus top tight end), with an eye on the future. He’ll also have a role in the short-term as the #2 tight end, replacing Green in that role. With a lack of depth at wide receiver, the Chargers figure to use a lot of two-tight end sets again this season. Assuming they don’t have a rash of injuries again, it’s a talented receiving corps and one that should benefit immensely from Allen being healthy.

Grade: B

Running Backs

While the Chargers’ issues on the offensive line and in the receiving corps last season were largely the result of injuries, that was not the case at running back. The issue at running back is Melvin Gordon struggled mightily as a rookie and they were counting on him to turn around their running game, after making him the 15th pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Gordon rushed for just 641 yards on 184 carries (3.48 YPC), added just 33 catches for 192 yards, and did not score a single touchdown. He also fumbled 6 times, losing 4 of them. One of the worst running backs in the NFL last season, Gordon finished 65th out of 69 eligible running backs on Pro Football Focus.

Danny Woodhead was 2nd on the team in carries with 98 carries, but rushed for just 336 yards and 3 touchdowns himself, an average of only 3.43 YPC. Woodhead is a valuable asset to this offense, but not as a runner. He excels as a receiver of the backfield, catching 80 passes for 755 yards and 6 touchdowns, actually leading the team in all 3 of those categories thanks to all of the Chargers’ injuries in the receiving corps. He caught 76 passes for 605 yards and 6 touchdowns in 2013 in his first year in San Diego (with a year lost to injury in between), so he has a very good chance to catch another 60-70 passes again in 2013, even with the Keenan Allen returning from injury. Rivers loves throwing to him and the broken leg that cost him most of 2014 is the only major injury he’s suffered in his career, missing just 3 other games with injury in the past 6 seasons. The fact that he’s going into his age 31 season is a bit of a concern, but because he’s not a traditional running back, he should be able to have a little bit longer career.

However, Woodhead is not going to be the one to turn around this running game, as he’s topped 100 carries just once in his career and can’t carry a load as a traditional running back at 5-8 200. The Chargers finished last season dead last in yards per carry as a team, averaging 3.46 YPC. They should be better by default this season (it’s hard to get worse), especially since the Chargers’ offensive line should be better this season, but if they’re going to become even an average running team, it’s going to take a major bounce back year from Gordon.

He certainly has the upside to do it, but off-season microfracture surgery on a knee injury that cost him the final 2 games of last season complicates matters. He’s fully expected to be ready for the start of the season, but you never want to hear microfracture surgery in the same sentence with a young running back. If he misses any time with injury, undrafted rookie Kenneth Farrow and Danny Woodhead would split carries, with a veteran also likely being added in that situation. The arrow is pointing up at running back for the Chargers, but only by default.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

While the Chargers’ ranked 11th in rate of moving the chains, their defense had a few more issues, coming in 17th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their biggest issue, by far, was the defensive line. Defensive ends Kendall Reyes and Ricardo Mathews played 656 and 511 snaps respectively and graded out 120th and 121st respectively among 123 eligible interior defensive linemen on Pro Football Focus, while Sean Lissemore struggled mightily on 233 snaps at nose tackle. The Chargers made upgrading the defensive line a focus of their off-season though, adding Brandon Mebane as a free agent from the Seahawks on a 3-year, 13.5 million dollar contract and using the 3rd overall pick on Joey Bosa, a defensive end out of Ohio State.

Bosa was a surprise pick at #3 overall, as the Chargers are widely expected to choose between Oregon defensive end DeForest Buckner, Florida State safety Jalen Ramsey, and Notre Dame offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley. Bosa isn’t an obvious fit for a 3-4, measuring in at 6-5 269 at the combine, but the Chargers think he can comfortably put on another 20 pounds to play defensive end on the Chargers’ 3-man defensive line. Bosa was Pro Football Focus’ #1 overall ranked draft prospect, but I would have gone with Ramsey (#3) or Buckner (#2). It’s always a projection whenever you draft someone that high and then need him to put on significant weight, as you don’t know how he’ll carry it. Buckner, meanwhile, played in a 3-4 at Oregon and wouldn’t need to gain any weight, measuring in at 6-7 291 at the combine. On top of that, an off-season holdout complicates matters. He has finally reported, but could be behind the 8-ball early in the season, after missing the essentially entire off-season.

Bosa will still be an obvious upgrade at defensive end and has a very bright future in San Diego. Mebane should also be an upgrade. He’ll play primarily at nose tackle, but could also see snaps in sub packages. Mebane spent the first 9 years of his career in a 4-3 in Seattle, but has always been better against the run than as a pass rusher and has adequate nose tackle size at 6-1 311. Mebane was Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked defensive tackle in 2013, but that’s not the norm for him, as he’s graded out below average in 4 of the last 5 seasons. He’s not a bad player though, grading out 70th out of 123 eligible interior defenders last season on 489 snaps, and, even going into his age 31 season, should be decent at nose tackle for a couple of seasons. He was a smart pickup.

Corey Liuget remains as the other starting defensive end. He was easily their best defensive lineman last season, though he did miss 5 games with injury and actually graded out slightly below average overall; he was their best defensive lineman by default. He’s graded out below average in 3 of 5 seasons in the league, since going in the first round since 2011, including 29th out of 32 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2011, 37th out of 45 eligible 3-4 defensive ends in 2013, and 77th out of 123 eligible interior defenders last season. The Chargers massively overpaid him on a 5-year, 51.25 million dollar extension last off-season, ahead of the final year of his rookie deal, but he’s a capable starter overall.

As mentioned, depth still remains an issue on the defensive line. Lissemore can play both defensive end and nose tackle and will see some action. Despite struggling last season, he’s graded out above average in 3 of 6 seasons in the NFL, though he’s never played more than 338 snaps in a season. Darius Philon should also see snaps. The 2015 6th round pick struggled on 150 snaps as a rookie, but could see a larger role in his 2nd year in the league out of desperation. It’s an improved unit, but far from a strong one, especially given their lack of depth.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The Chargers got strong play at the outside linebacker position last season from Melvin Ingram and Jerry Attaochu. Both return as starters, but, like the defensive line, depth is a problem at the position. Kyle Emmanuel struggled mightily as the 3rd outside linebacker last season, finishing 104th out of 110 eligible edge defenders on 306 snaps as a 5th round rookie. He could be better this season, but depth at the position was something they needed to add this off-season and didn’t.

Ingram and Attaochu both played well last season though, grading out 16th and 39th respectively among edge defenders. Ingram was solid as a first round rookie in 16 games in 2012, but had his career derailed by injuries that cost him 19 games and seemed to snap his effectiveness in 2013 and 2014, grading out below average in both seasons. However, he slimmed down 20 pounds last off-season (from 266 to 246) and then put it all together in his 4th year in the league, playing all 16 games once again and finishing as one of the better edge defenders in the NFL.

Ingram is going into the final year of his rookie contract in 2016 and the Chargers have a big decision to make about his long-term future with the team. He’s obviously a valuable player to this team when healthy, but his injury history should give them some pause about giving him a massive long-term extension. Attachou was also a high pick, getting drafted in the 2nd round in 2014. He played just 182 snaps as a rookie, but broke out as a starter in 2015. He’s still a one-year wonder so it’s hard to trust that he’ll be as good in 2016, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season, so his best days are likely still ahead of him.

At middle linebacker, the Chargers have another two starters on rookie deals, after releasing the disappointing Donald Butler this off-season, just two years into a 7-year, 51.8 million dollar extension. Butler was so bad over the past 2 seasons that members of the San Diego media accused him of quitting on the team as soon as he got paid. Denzel Perryman, their 2nd round pick in 2015, took his starting job by the end of last season and will keep that job in 2016, after finishing 25th among linebackers on 403 snaps in 2015. He could have a breakout year in an every down role in his 2nd year in the league in 2016.

Manti Te’o is the other starter at middle linebacker. The 2013 2nd round pick is going into his contract year and, like with Ingram, the Chargers have a decision to make on him coming up. Unlike with Ingram, the decision with Te’o is whether or not he’s even a starting caliber player. Te’o has missed 13 games with injury in 3 years in the league, never playing more than 13 games in a season, and has graded out below average in 2 of the 3 seasons, including 93th out of 97 eligible linebackers last season. Like with the defensive line and outside linebacker, the Chargers don’t really have any depth at the position, so Te’o’s job is safe for now. They did draft Josh Perry in the 4th round as a potential long-term replacement, but he’ll probably struggle if he has to play as a rookie. It’s a weak spot in a linebacking corps that has overall solid starters, but that lacks depth in a big way.

Grade: B

Secondary

The Chargers’ big off-season loss on defense was safety Eric Weddle, who signed a 4-year, 26 million dollar deal with the Ravens this off-season. Weddle had been with the Chargers for 9 seasons, since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2007. He got a well-deserved 5-year, 40 million dollar extension after the 2010 season, which made him the highest paid safety in the NFL at the time. He was a top-6 safety on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2014, but it became clear last off-season that 2015 would be his final year in San Diego, as long-term contract talks between the two sides broke down before the season started.

Making matters worse, the Chargers fined Weddle 10K for watching his daughter perform at halftime, rather than being in the locker room with his teammates, and then placed him on injured reserve for week 17, even though Weddle claimed he was not injured. Weddle said this off-season that he may never speak to the Chargers again over the incident, a very unfortunate way for an otherwise dominant tenure in San Diego to end. His career is on a borderline Hall-of-Fame path and he definitely deserves to be in the Chargers’ Ring of Honor someday, but that looks very much in doubt now.

Ultimately, not re-signing Weddle last off-season was probably the right decision in hindsight, because he did have a bit of a down year in 2015, finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 33rd ranked safety. He’ll be missed but, now going into his age 31 season, he was not worth another top level safety contract (the Ravens got him for a fair price). The Chargers replaced him with Dwight Lowery, who is obviously a downgrade, but he’s a solid player and the Chargers were able to bring him in very inexpensively (3 years, 7.2 million).

Lowery had major issues with injury early in his career, as the 2008 4th round pick missed 28 games with injury in the first 6 seasons of his career. However, he hasn’t missed a game in either of the last 2 seasons and has graded out below average just twice in 8 years in the league. One of those seasons was last year, but he wasn’t bad, finishing 49th out of 89 eligible safeties, just slightly below average. He’s going into his age 30 season, but he should be a capable starter again. Jahleel Addae remains as the other starter, after making 13 starts last season. The 2013 undrafted free agent was decent in 2013 and 2014 on 437 and 374 snaps respectively, but struggled in a larger role last season, grading out 76th out of 89 eligible safeties on 713 snaps. He could be a little bit better in his 2nd year as a starter, but he’s a marginal starter at best.

Things are much better at cornerback, where 2014 1st round pick Jason Verrett is now the Chargers’ best defensive player, in the post-Eric Weddle era. Verrett was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked cornerback through the first 6 weeks of the season as a rookie, before going down with a season ending injury. He picked up right where he left off in his 2nd year in the league though, finishing 6th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, though he did miss another 2 games with injury. Injuries have always been an issue for him, as he probably would have been a higher draft pick if not for shoulder surgery before the draft. However, that’s really the only issue. Only going into his age 25 season, he could easily become an All-Pro player for years to come, if he can stay healthy.

Brandon Flowers was the starter opposite Verrett last season. Once one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL, Flowers was a top-9 cornerback on Pro Football Focus every year from 2009-2012 (the only cornerback in the NFL who could say that), but struggled in 2013, finishing 85th out of 110 eligible, ultimately leading to the Chiefs releasing him. The Chargers snatched him up on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal and were rewarded, as he bounced back in a scheme that fit his skill set better, finishing 15th among cornerbacks in 2014. The Chargers then rewarded him by giving him a 4-year, 36 million dollar contract last off-season, but he was horrible in 2015, finishing 109th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks. He admitted to being out of shape and says he’s lost 10-12 pounds in an effort to bounce back in 2016. He certainly could, but, going into his age 30 season, his best days might also be behind him.

Flowers will have to compete with free agent acquisition Casey Hayward for the starting job. Hayward was easily the better of the two last season, finishing 16th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. Hayward made just 20 starts in 4 years in Green Bay, after being drafted in the 2nd round in 2012, but he finished 4th among cornerbacks as a rookie in 2012, 9th among cornerbacks in 2014, and then 16th last season (he missed all but 3 games with injury in 2013). Most likely, he’ll start opposite Verrett and move to the slot in sub packages, with Flowers coming in and playing outside across from Verrett as the 3rd cornerback, but Flowers will probably be given a chance to keep the starting job. Hayward was a steal on a 3-year, 15.3 million dollar deal this off-season and, assuming he gets a chance to start, his next 4 years should be better than his last 4 years. If Flowers bounces back and Heyward plays like he can, this is a very talented trio of cornerbacks, which should help offset the loss of the declining Weddle.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Chargers should be healthier, have better special teams, allow fewer return touchdowns, and have fewer injuries in 2016, so they’re an obvious candidate for a big jump in wins from the 4 they had last season. However, they have plenty of issues still, including an aging core, a lack of depth, and a holdout by 3rd overall pick Joey Bosa. In a weak AFC, they’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot as long as they can stay healthy, but they are far from the most talented team in the league.

Prediction: 9-7 2nd in AFC West

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-11) at Denver Broncos (11-4)

The Chargers are just 4-11, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-7 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-8 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -8 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -6.5 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -2.8 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents by 344 yards.

None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 9 of 15 games and could easily be 6-9, 7-8, 8-7, or even 9-6. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team. They don’t have a tremendous ATS record on the season because they were pretty highly valued to start the season, but they’ve covered 4 of their last 5.

They’ve also been way better on the road than at home. At home, they were just 2-6 ATS this season, as they seemingly have no fans. As a result, their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they’ve essentially had to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles at this point. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents, as nice as San Diego weather is.

Meanwhile, on the road, they are 5-2 ATS on the season, with one of those non-covers being a 5 point loss as 3 point underdogs in Cincinnati week 2, against a Bengals team that turned out to be one of the best in the NFL. They have just one road loss by more than a touchdown, relevant considering they’re underdogs of 9 points here in Denver. If they can keep it within a touchdown against the likes of the Bengals, Packers, and Chiefs, they can do so here in Denver. All 3 of those teams rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential than the Broncos, who come in 12th.

Despite a 7 game lead over them in the standings, the Broncos actually rank one spot below the Chargers in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve benefitted an 8-3 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, have lost the rate of moving the chains battle in 5 of 15 games, and have just three victories of more than a touchdown. They beat the Chargers by 14 earlier this year, but that was in San Diego and that would have been a touchdown game if not for a return touchdown. The Broncos had just one offensive touchdown in that game. This figures to be a pretty close game, so getting 9 points with the visitor seems like a good deal.

It does hurt the Chargers that they’re coming off of a road overtime loss, as teams are 81-105 ATS in that spot since 1989. However, they’re also in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 130-94 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 225-227 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 321-438 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.75 points per game. Road underdogs in their 2nd of two road games off of an overtime loss are 21-20 ATS since 1989, so those two trends cancel out. It’s just too many points to pass on.

Denver Broncos 17 San Diego Chargers 13

Pick against the spread: San Diego +9

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-10) at Oakland Raiders (6-8)

The Chargers are just 4-10, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-6 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-7 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -8 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -6.6 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -2.8 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents by 282 yards.

None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 8 of 14 games and could easily be 6-8, 7-7, or even 8-6. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team.

The Raiders are also a solid team and also better than their record (6-8), ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’re not better than the Chargers by a wide margin, as this 5.5 point line suggests. They beat the Chargers earlier this year in San Diego, but the Chargers are arguably a better road team than home team, as they seemingly have no fans. As a result, their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles at this point. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents, as nice as San Diego weather is.

The Chargers are just 2-6 ATS at home, including losses to Chicago, Oakland, and the Michael Vick lead Pittsburgh Steelers, but they’re 4-2 ATS on the road and one of those non-covers was a 5 point loss in Cincinnati early in the season as 3 point underdogs against a Bengals team that has turned out to be one of the best in the NFL. Just one of their road losses has come by more than a touchdown and if they can keep it close against the likes of Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Kansas City, they can certainly do so against an Oakland team that has lost to all 3 of those teams. Plus, revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one, as divisional road underdogs are 56-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002.

Both of these teams have tough upcoming games, as the Raiders go to Kansas City next week and the Chargers go to Denver, but it should affect the Raiders more than the Chargers. Divisional home favorites are awful before being divisional road underdogs, 22-58 ATS dating back to 2002, one of the most powerful trends there is. I don’t really like making my Pick of the Week on a Thursday game (in fact, I can’t remember a single time I’ve done this), as short rest games can be pretty unpredictable, but this has everything I look for in a Pick of the Week so I’ll pull the trigger. This should be a close game at the least and I like the Chargers to actually win straight up.

San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 24 Upset Pick +195

Pick against the spread: San Diego +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (5-8) at San Diego Chargers (3-10)

The Chargers are just 3-10, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-6 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-7 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -7 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -7.5 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -3.1 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents.

None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 13 games and could easily be 6-7 or 7-6. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team. Miami, meanwhile, ranks all the way down at 30th, worse than their 5-8 record.

That doesn’t mean I’m taking the Chargers as 2 point home favorites though. I’ve been picking the Chargers against the spread pretty religiously in recent weeks, but I’ve learned my lesson about taking them at home, where they are 1-6 ATS this season. The Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season.

I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles at this point. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents, as nice as San Diego weather is. The Chargers are 4-2 ATS on the road this season and one of those non-covers was a 5 point loss early in the season as 3 point underdogs against the Bengals, who turned out to be one of the best teams in the NFL, but it’s really tough to be confident in them in San Diego.

The Chargers are also in a terrible spot. Not only do they have to play again in 4 days in Oakland (favorites are 47-71 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football), but they will be underdogs in that game, while the Dolphins host the Colts on normal rest, a game in which they’re expected to be favored. Teams are 101-169 ATS since 2008 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Chargers are better than the Dolphins, so I’d need at least a field goal to even think about putting money on the Dolphins, but they’re my pick here.

Update: I’m flipping on this one. This is probably the Chargers’ last home game in San Diego, so the fans might actually show up. It’s still a no confidence pick though.

San Diego Chargers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -2.5

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (3-9) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)

The Chargers are just 3-9, one of the worst records in the NFL, but rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential. How can that be? Well, their record is largely the result of a 3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -8 turnover margin, a -5 return touchdown margin, a -8.2 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -3.7 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 12 games and could easily be 5-7, 6-6, or even 7-5.

Because of this, I’ve been putting money on them pretty religiously of late, but that’s been a mistake because they’ve been at home in 4 of their last 6 games. The Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. The Chargers are 1-6 ATS at home this season. I should have known earlier in the season not to bet them at home, but I know now and better late than never.

On the road is a different story. The Chargers have covered their last 3 road games and, while they’re 3-2 ATS on the road overall this season, one of their non-covers was a 5 point loss as 3 point underdogs in Cincinnati against the Bengals, who turned out to be one of the best teams in the league. The Chargers have just one double digit road loss this season and, if they can keep it close on the road against the Bengals and Packers (two teams the Chiefs have lost to), they should be able to keep it close in Kansas City.

Given all of that, this line is way too high at 10.5. The line was actually 8 last week, but it has since shifted and I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The public is still on the Chiefs though because they remember the Chiefs’ 33-3 win in San Diego a few weeks ago. It was a bad loss, but that was the Chargers’ worst performance of the season (and arguably the Chiefs’ best), so it’s important not to focus on that game too much, especially since we know that the game being in San Diego isn’t really an advantage for the Chargers. The Chargers are also in a great spot in this one, hosting the lowly Dolphins next week, a game in which the Chargers are expected to be favored. Double digit underdogs are 54-32 ATS since 2002 before being favorites.

The Chargers are banged up in this one, missing wide receivers Steve Johnson and Dontrelle Inman, defensive end Corey Liuget, and cornerback Brandon Flowers, but they’ve been banged up all season. The Chargers’ offense hasn’t been the same since losing top wide receiver Keenan Allen, but the Chiefs are banged up right now too, missing safety Husain Abdullah, defensive end Mike DeVito, and, most importantly, outside linebacker Justin Houston. Houston is one of the best edge rushers in the league and the Chiefs defense did not look the same without him in Oakland last week. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Chiefs are favored by 5 on the early line in Baltimore next week and teams are 75-51 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites and 46-30 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, since 2012. The Chargers are the right side though.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego +10.5

Confidence: High

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (9-2) at San Diego Chargers (3-8)

The Chargers’ 3-8 record is one of the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their record is largely the result of a 3-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (3-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -6 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, a -8.2 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -4.5 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 7 of 11 games and could easily be 5-6, 6-5, or even 7-4. They rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 3 spots behind the 10th ranked Denver Broncos, who they play this week.

The Chargers are also healthier than they’ve been all season, as tight end Antonio Gates, tight end Ladarius Green, safety Eric Weddle, left guard Orlando Franklin, left tackle King Dunlap, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, right guard DJ Fluker, and wide receiver Keenan Allen have missed a combined 30 games this season with injury. Fluker, Dunlap, and Allen are out, but other than Ladarius Green, who is listed as probable, none of the other guys even come up on the injury report. The Broncos, on the other hand, lost safety TJ Ward to a high ankle sprain last week and will be without outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware for the 4th straight game. Those are two key missing defenders on a defense that’s otherwise been really healthy this season.

Making matters worse for the Broncos this week is that they’re coming off of a huge, emotional overtime victory over the New England Patriots, as home underdogs. They could be overconfident coming off of that game, as teams are 43-71 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs and 8-19 ATS since 2002 off of win as home underdogs in overtime. Despite that, and the fact that the Chargers are underrated and this line is too high, and that the Chargers are getting healthier while the Broncos are going the other direction, the public is still all over the Broncos, as 4 point road favorites. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run, and it makes sense here.

There are three reasons why this is just a medium confidence pick and not a Pick of the Week. One, the line did move from last week to this week, so the Chargers are only 4 point underdogs now. We’re still getting value with them, but it’s less and I typically like to fade significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. It doesn’t make sense here, but I’d like the Chargers more at 6, though close to 3 in 10 games are decided by four points or fewer.

Two, the Broncos are playing better football over the past two weeks thanks to the play of Brock Osweiler. Osweiler hasn’t been amazing or anything, but he’s been a noticeable upgrade over Peyton Manning, who looked done before going down with a foot injury. Osweiler has completed 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.16 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions and the Broncos moved the chains at a 70.62% rate in his 2 starts, as opposed to 66.43% in Manning’s 9. That definitely offsets their defensive injuries somewhat.

Three, the Chargers have had basically no homefield advantage this season. They seem to have no fans in San Diego, so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, meaning they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fans who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. The Chargers are 1-5 ATS at home this season, as opposed to 3-2 ATS on the road. They’re still my pick though. This is a classic trap game for the Broncos, banged up, coming off of a tough and hugely important home win, on the road, with everyone singing their praises, against an underrated team that’s gotten healthier.

San Diego Chargers 24 Denver Broncos 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)

The Chargers’ 2-8 record is tied for the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their defense has been horrendous, ranking 29th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense ranks 5th, as quarterback Philip Rivers has played very well this season, despite a lot of issues around him on offense. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 16th, hardly great, but certainly significantly better than any other team that has 2 or 3 wins.

Their record is largely the result of a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (2-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -7 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, a -7.8 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -5.2 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 10 games and could easily be 4-6, 5-5, or even 6-4. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team.

The Chargers are also healthier now than they were before their bye week a couple weeks ago. Tight end Antonio Gates, tight end Lardarius Green, safety Eric Weddle, guard Orlando Franklin, wide receiver Malcom Floyd, defensive end Corey Liuget, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and middle linebacker Denzel Perryman have all missed significant time with injury this season, but are healthy for this one. They’re not at full strength, missing left tackle King Dunlap, right guard DJ Fluker, and wide receiver Keenan Allen, but few teams are at full strength at this point in the season.

Of course, none of this did them any good last week, when they got demolished at home by a surging Chiefs team, but the Jaguars are hardly the Chiefs, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. They too are healthier than they have been, as left tackle Luke Joeckel, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and tight end Julius Thomas have all returned from early season injuries. They’ve been noticeably better since the first 3 weeks of the season, as they had a rate of moving the chains differential of -10.95% in their first 3 games, as opposed to -3.31% in their last 7 games. With outside linebacker Dan Skuta, right guard Brandon Linder, and defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks all injured, they’re not at full strength, but, again, few teams are by week 12. That being said, I still think the Chargers are the better team.

I think it also helps the Chargers to get away from San Diego, as weird as that sounds. The Chargers seem to have no fans in San Diego so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, so they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fan who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. On the road this year, they’ve nearly beaten Green Bay and Cincinnati so they could easily go into Jacksonville and win straight up.

Given that, getting 4.5 points with them is really nice. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, and, even if the Chargers play poorly again, there’s plenty of room for a backdoor cover. This line was a field goal a week ago and I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever they make sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, in this case, San Diego getting demolished by an underrated Chiefs team for easily their biggest loss of the season.

Given that the Chargers are the better team and have had some success on the road this season,  I actually think this line should be around a pick ‘em, so we’re getting a lot of good line value with the Chargers, as this line has cleared the key numbers of 3 and 4. The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because the Chargers host the Broncos next week, a game in which they are expected to be 6 point home underdogs, and teams are 41-86 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point home underdogs. It can be hard to concentrate with such a huge home game on deck, but, at 2-8, on a 6 game losing streak, with barely a snowball’s chance in hell of making the playoffs, the Chargers can’t afford to not be completely focused for this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 San Diego Chargers 30

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-7)

The Chargers had their bye last week and it came at a perfect time, as it allowed them to get much healthier. Left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, tight end Antonio Gates, and safety Eric Weddle, all of whom have missed significant time with injury in recent weeks, all come out of the bye healthy. That’s great news because they’re all key players and the Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league this season. They’re still missing top wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season and right guard DJ Fluker and wide receiver Malcom Floyd will join him this week, but they’re still significantly healthier than they normally are.

Despite all of their injuries, the Chargers have been a solid team this season. You wouldn’t know it from their record, as they’re 2-7, but they rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. Their record is largely the result of a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown, a -5 turnover margin, a -3 return touchdown margin, a -6.6 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -6.2 net punt margin. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team though, but rather that they have the framework of a good team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 9 games and could easily be 4-5, 5-4, or even 6-3. The Chiefs only rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, so it’s surprising that they’re favored by more than a field goal here on the road in San Diego, especially considering close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. That’s enough for me to take the Chargers with confidence.

San Diego Chargers 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3.5

Confidence: High

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Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bears, Chargers, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (2-5) at San Diego Chargers (2-6)

These two teams both only have 2 wins, but the Chargers are significantly better. While the Bears rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Chargers rank 7th. Obviously that seems weird given their record, but they actually lead the league in yards per game and are 2nd in first downs per game, behind the Patriots. Their defense has been a serious problem, as they rank 25th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has been so good (4th) that they still rank 7th overall.

Their 2-6 record is largely the result of a 2-4 record in games decided by a touchdown, a -6 turnover margin, a -3 return touchdown margin, a -7.4 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -10.5 yards per punt return margin. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team though, but rather that they have the framework of a good team, but just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 8 games and could easily be 4-4, 5-3, or even 6-2.They’ve almost won in both Green Bay and Cincinnati. They should be favored by more than 4 here against a Bears team that’s mediocre at best.

That being said, I can’t bring myself to put money on the Chargers for a couple of reasons. The first is that they’re going into a bye. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 38-62 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye.

The second reason is injuries, as the Chargers are so unbelievably banged up right now. They’ve had injury problems all year and still have moved the ball better than their opponents, a testament to how well quarterback Philip Rivers has played, but this is as bad as it’s been all year. Wide receiver Keenan Allen, tight end Lardarius Green, left tackle King Dunlap, left guard Orlando Franklin, center Chris Watt, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, middle linebacker Denzel Perryman, and possibly defensive end Corey Liuget are all out for this one. Losing Allen, 3rd in the league in receiving yards, for the season last week is a huge blow. They are likely to get safety Eric Weddle back, who they really missed him over the past 2 weeks, and the Bears are missing running back Matt Forte, wide receiver Eddie Royal, and center Hronnis Grasu, but I can’t be confident in the Chargers with as many injuries as they have.

San Diego Chargers 34 Chicago Bears 27

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-5) at Baltimore Ravens (1-6)

The Ravens have had a brutal start to their season, losing 6 of their first 7 games. However, they’ve been on the road in 5 of those 7 games and they’re typically a better team at home. They are 47-13 at home since 2008, outscoring their opponents by an average of 9.87 points per game, as opposed to 36-38 on the road, outscoring their opponents by an average of just 0.80 points per game. They’re also 22-14 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of a touchdown or less over that time period, as they are here, though just 0-2 ATS during this tough season.

However, they’re going into a bye here. That might sound like a good thing, but it’s not,as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 37-61 ATS over that aforementioned time period, as they tend to get caught looking forward to the bye. The Chargers are in a better spot, with a relatively easy home game against the Bears on deck.

We’re also getting a significant amount of line value with the Chargers. Neither one of these teams has a good record, but, while the Ravens rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Chargers are much better than their record, ranking 8th. The Chargers’ defense isn’t very good, but their offense leads the NFL in first downs and yards. They’ve come close to beating both Green Bay and Cincinnati on the road this season and have won the rate of moving the chains battle in 5 of 7 games, including in Green Bay, arguably the toughest place in the NFL to play. Getting more than a field goal with them in Baltimore, against a Ravens team that’s in a bad spot, is a complete steal.

The only reason I’m a little hesitant taking the Chargers is because they’re pretty banged up. Left guard Orlando Franklin, middle linebackers Manti Te’o and Denzel Perryman, tight end Antonio Gates, and safety Eric Weddle are all expected out for this one. Weddle’s injury is especially important because he’s one of the best safeties in the league and doesn’t have much talent around him on San Diego’s defense. Oakland moved the chains pretty easily against them last week in Weddle’s first game missed with injury. Baltimore is pretty banged up too though, obviously still missing edge rusher Terrell Suggs for the year, but are also still missing wide receiver Breshad Perriman and now are once again missing left tackle Eugene Monroe. Their offensive line really struggled without him early in the season. I’m still confident enough in the Chargers to make them by Pick of the Week.

San Diego Chargers 24 Baltimore Ravens 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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