Chargers

San Diego Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Chargers, Ravens, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-4)

This line is way too low. The Ravens rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76.84% rate, as opposed to 72.29% for their opponents, a differential of 4.55%. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 15th, moving the chains at a 73.39% rate, as opposed to 72.56% for their opponents, a differential of 0.84%. The Chargers have been especially bad of late, moving the chains at a 68.09% rate since week 7, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -6.10%. They’ve just had so many injuries, the most serious one being to talented rookie cornerback Jason Verrett, who was playing so well before his injury.

The Ravens are significantly better than the Chargers, especially at home. The Ravens move the chains at a 79.52% rate at home this season, as opposed to 65.91% for their opponents, a differential of 13.61%. This home dominance is nothing new. Since Joe Flacco and John Harbaugh came in before the 2008 season, the Ravens are 45-10 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.58 points per game, at home, as opposed to 33-32, outscoring opponents by an average of 1.03 points per game on the road, a swing of about 9.5 points. It also hurts the Chargers that they are a West Coast team playing a 1 PM ET game on the East Coast. The Ravens should be favored by more than 5.5 here everything considered.

Speaking of the Ravens’ home dominance and the fact that they’re favored by just 5.5 here, the Ravens have done very well at home as underdogs or favorites of 7 or less since that 2008 season, going 22-11 ATS in that situation. The Ravens do have a tough game next week in Miami, where they’ll be underdogs, as non-divisional home favorites are 73-99 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002 However, the Chargers have an even tougher game at home for New England next week. Non-divisional road underdogs are 92-126 ATS before being non-divisional home underdogs since 2002. Going off of that, teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012 and 29-62 ATS before being home underdogs of 4 or more. In a tough week for games, this is my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 31 San Diego Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Baltimore -5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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St. Louis Rams at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (6-4)

I’m completely split on this. On one hand, the Rams could easily be overconfident and off of a fluky win over the Broncos last week. The Broncos had more first downs (21 and 16) and an equal amount of offensive touchdowns (1), as the Rams were overly reliant on a +2 turnover margin. The Broncos moved the chains at a 68.75% rate, as opposed to 60.71% for the Rams. Road underdogs of 3 or more are 21-35 ATS since 1989 off of a win as 7+ point home underdogs. Teams can be not just overconfident, but also overvalued off of what’s usually a fluky victory.

I think the Rams are definitely overvalued here. They still only rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.76% rate, as opposed to 74.43% for their opponents, a differential of -4.67%. Meanwhile, the Chargers rank 16th, moving the chains at a 73.74% rate, as opposed to 73.10% for their opponents, a differential of 0.63%. That suggests this line should be much more than 5. It should at least be where it was last week, when the early line was 7, if not higher. I love fading big line movements because they’re often unwarranted and I think it is unwarranted here too.

On the other hand, the Chargers are in a terrible spot. While the Rams only have to play the Raiders next week, the Chargers have to go across the country and play the Ravens in Baltimore. Non-divisional home favorites are as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008, while teams conversely are 76-106 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. I’m still taking the Chargers, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 30 St. Louis Rams 24

Pick against the spread: San Diego -5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (0-9) at San Diego Chargers (5-4)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this seems like a perfect spot for the Chargers to bounce back off of back-to-back big losses on the road in Denver and Miami. Despite those two losses, they are still significantly better than the Raiders, to the point where I think we’re getting some line value with them as only 10 point favorites. The Chargers still rank 17th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 75.19% rate, as opposed to 75.46% for their opponents, a differential of -0.28%. Meanwhile, the Raiders rank dead last, moving the chains at a 64.20% rate, as opposed to 75.68% for their opponents, a differential of -11.49%. No one else has a differential worse than -7.93% (Tennessee).

In addition to still ranking relatively high in rate of moving the chains differential despite those two losses, the Chargers are also still above .500 despite those two losses, which brings in another trend that support the theory that they’ll have a bounce back week. Teams with a winning record are 49-28 ATS since 1989 at home off of back-to-back road losses. On top of that, the Chargers had an embarrassing loss in their last time out, losing 38-0 and teams tend to bounce back off of those as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed. Teams are 46-24 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 1989, including 4-0 ATS off of a bye.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have another tough game against the Chiefs on deck. Teams are 56-85 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more, 28-60 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more, and 8-22 ATS before being road favorites of 7 or more (the early line is Kansas City -7.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough, important game coming up. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. Here, I think it’s both.

However, there is one very powerful trend on Oakland’s side that can’t be ignored. Teams that are 0-8 or worse (the Raiders are 0-9) cover at a very high rate as road underdogs historically, going 17-3 ATS since 1989. That’s because no one wants to bet on a team that is 0-8 or worse so the odds makers know they can boost the spread as high as they want. I don’t know that that’s happening here because the Chargers are coming off of a rough stretch as well, but the public is all over the Chargers and I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense. At the end of the day, I still like the Chargers to bounce back and cover this spread, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 34 Oakland Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: San Diego -10

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (5-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-3)

The Chargers were blown out in Denver last week, but there are a few reasons why I see them bouncing back this week. The most obvious is that this is a much easier game than last week. As solid as Miami has been this season, they definitely aren’t Denver. The Dolphins move the chains at a 73.13% rate, as opposed to 70.62% for their opponents, a differential of 2.51%, 10th in the NFL. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 7th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 77.24% rate, as opposed to 74.35% for their opponents, a differential of 2.89%. This line at Miami -1.5 is about right, before you take into account situational trends.

The situational trends all favor San Diego. The second reason why they’ll bounce back this week is that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  For one, they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 108-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 92-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game.

The third reason is that teams tend to cover the spread when coming off of a Thursday Night blowout loss, as teams are 24-14 ATS as underdogs off of a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more. This makes sense as they’ve had extra time to hear about how bad they are and to regroup. They also have far less of a distraction with their upcoming game, as they go into their bye and then play the lowly the Raiders, while the Dolphins head to Detroit next week.

Teams are 72-104 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 58-97 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. The Chargers have a bye in between, which could throw that trend off. There isn’t as much data on teams that have byes in between the game they are favorites and underdogs, but teams are 38-26 ATS in that spot since 1989 and the logic still holds. The Chargers should be the right side, but the trend uncertainty with the Chargers going into a bye keeps this from being a high confidence pick.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: San Diego +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (5-1)

The Broncos have generally been very good at home in the Peyton Manning era, going 14-7 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more. That hasn’t been the case against these Chargers, who have covered in all 3 instances in Denver as 3+ point underdogs since 2012. However, it’s very possible that could be an anomaly as it’s just 3 data points. Peyton Manning has also generally been very good in nationally televised regular seasons games, going 32-15 ATS in such games since 2003, including a 42-17 blowout win over the 49ers last weekend on Sunday Night Football. Again, the Chargers beat them here in a similar Thursday Night Game last year, but that could just be an anomaly.

However, the Chargers’ recent success against the Broncos does concern me some. I’m also concerned that this line is too high. I wish this line was under a touchdown, instead of at 7.5. Denver is playing very well this season, obviously, moving the chains at a 78.17% rate, as opposed to 70.77% for their opponents, a differential of 7.40% that ranks 2nd in the NFL behind Indianapolis. However, the Chargers are also playing very well, moving the chains at a 76.74% rate, as opposed to 72.02% for their opponents, a differential of 4.72% that ranks 6th in the NFL. This line should be closer to 5.5 than 7.5. Brandon Flowers is out for the Chargers, which really hurts them as he’s the biggest reason by far that their defense has been significantly better this season, but I still wish it was under a touchdown. I’m taking the Broncos, but I’m not confident.

Denver Broncos 30 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: Denver -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (4-1)

The Chargers are in about as bad as a spot as a team can be this week. They have a huge game 4 days after this in Denver, arguably the biggest game of their season. This game here is important because it’s a divisional game obviously, but the Chargers are at home and significantly favored. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have a random non-conference game against the Rams on deck and they’ll be heavily favored against the Rams in Kansas City. Teams tend to struggle as favorites before being underdogs and teams tend to perform well as underdogs before being favorites, for obvious reasons.

For example, teams are 106-76 ATS divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2002. Even more powerful, teams are just 19-51 ATS since 2002 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 94-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. Combining these, teams are just 24-70 ATS since 1989 as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs when their opponents will next be home favorites.

Making things even worse for the Chargers is the fact that their game against the Broncos just 4 days after this one as they go to Denver on Thursday Night Football. Teams are just 33-55 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Football game. We’re also getting a little bit of line value with the Chiefs, as the Chargers are 3rd in the NFL with a rate of moving the chains differential of 6.43%, as opposed to 5.99% for the Chiefs, who are 6th.

The Chargers are moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 70.99% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are moving the chains at a 77.42% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents. This line is too high even before you get into all the situational trends I mentioned above. I don’t see the Chargers being able to beat them by 6 or more in the spot they’re currently in. The Chiefs are my Pick of the Week.

Update: I’m glad I locked this in at 5.5 at the very beginning of the week. Despite the public action being on San Diego, this spread quickly dropped to 4, suggesting heavy, immediate sharp action on Kansas City. This further affirms my position. I’d still take it at 4.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Chargers, Raiders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-4)

The Chargers have broken out as one of the top teams in the NFL and are a legitimate contender. Their offense has continued to be as good as it was last season. Last season, they moved the chains at a 78.26% rate, 2nd in the NFL. This season, they’re actually doing worse than that, moving the chains at a 75.82% rate, ranking 13th in the NFL. However, that’s still really good and much of the decline is because they are averaging just 2.80 yards per carry. Philip Rivers is playing like an MVP candidate, completing 70.3% of his passes for an average of 8.75 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Things will get even better when Ryan Mathews comes back from injury and Brendan Oliver had a strong performance last week, rushing for 114 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts, catching 4 passes for another 68 yards and another touchdown.

The biggest difference for this team between last year and this year though is the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.63% rate, 4th in the NFL. Free agent acquisition Brandon Flowers has been huge, having a big-time bounce back year and showing himself to once again be one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. Overall, the Chargers have a rate of moving the chains differential of 6.19%, 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Raiders are a train wreck, moving the chains at a 66.04% rate, as opposed to 75.40% for their opponents, a differential of -9.36% that is only better than Jacksonville. This line isn’t high enough at a touchdown, especially since the Chargers don’t have any huge distractions on the horizon. The Chargers host the Chiefs next. Teams are 42-24 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. The Chargers should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 31 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against spread: San Diego -7

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-1)

The Chargers are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Raiders in Oakland next week, the Jets have to deal with the Broncos at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 90-118 ATS since 2002 before being non-divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 57-37 ATS since 2010 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 28-69 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point home underdogs. Teams are also 57-87 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being home underdogs when their opponent will next be road favorites.

I also feel like we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Chargers. This line is 6.5 and the Chargers are definitely more than 3.5 points better than the Jets, especially with no distractions on the horizon and the Jets going into arguably their toughest game of the season. Also hurting the Jets, Eric Decker might not play in this one and he’s easily their best wide receiver. The Chargers should be the right side here.

San Diego Chargers 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: San Diego -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-1)

The Jaguars are one of three remaining 0-3 teams. They have the worst point differential in the NFL at -75. The second worst is Tampa Bay at -50 and the majority of that (-42) came last week. The third worst is St. Louis at -29. The Jaguars are also dead last in rate of moving the chains differential at -20.08% and no one else is worse than -9.23% (Buffalo). They’ve been outscored 119-27 over the past 10 quarters after jumping out to a 17-0 lead in Philadelphia week 1. They’re easily the worst team in the NFL.

So why do I like them this week? Well, for one thing, this line is way too high at 13.5. People have caught on to the fact that Jacksonville is terrible and the line seems to be overcompensating for that. The Chargers are a solid team, but they don’t deserve to be favorites of this many points against anyway. This line should be closer to 10. Teams are 40-21 ATS since 2002 after back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and the Jaguars should be all three this week.

The Jaguars looked decent in the 2nd half against Indianapolis last week after 3rd overall pick Blake Bortles took over at halftime. They actually outscored the Colts 17-14 in the 2nd half. Obviously, they were playing against a Colts team that didn’t really care anymore after jumping out to a 30-0 point lead in the first half and the Jaguars’ problems are way deeper than just the quarterback situation. Bortles is a rookie quarterback and not their savior. However, he looked a lot better than Chad Henne, completing 14 of 24 for 223 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. With him under center, I don’t feel uncomfortable picking the Jaguars here as 13.5 point underdogs in a good spot.

This would be a bigger play, but there are two things holding me back. One is that the Jaguars are just so bad. I expect them to give 110% out of embarrassment and for the Chargers to overlook them, but they could still get blown out considering they have 14 double digit losses in their last 20 games. Two, the Jaguars will probably be 3+ point home underdogs next week against Pittsburgh. Teams are 36-77 ATS before being 5+ point home underdogs since 2010 because apparently bad teams don’t usually cover the spread. The Chargers are my survivor pick this week, but I like the Jaguars against the spread.

San Diego Chargers 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +13.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Chargers, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (2-0)

The Bills are 2-0 and they’ve been very good at home over the past two seasons, going 7-1 ATS in the city of Buffalo since the start of the 2013 season and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. The Chargers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win over the Seahawks (teams are 39-56 ATS as road underdogs after a win as 6+ point home underdogs) and now have to travel to the East Coast for a 1 PM ET start. However, I don’t agree with the Bills being favorites here, even as just 2.5 point favorites.

The Bills are a fraudulent 2-0. They’re moving the chains at a 62.00% rate, as opposed to 73.33% for their opponents (30th in NFL in differential), as their opponents have picked up 24 more first downs than they have in the last 2 games combined. The Chargers, meanwhile, have moved the chains at a 75.81% rate, as opposed to 74.55%, roughly the same as last season when they made the playoffs at 9-7 and finished 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.26% rate, while allowing opponents to move them at a 75.36% rate.

The Chargers are also in the better spot. The Bills have to travel to Houston next week, while the Chargers just have to deal with Jacksonville in San Diego. Houston isn’t an incredible opponent, but the Bills will still be underdogs, while the Chargers will be heavy favorites. Teams are 104-68 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008, while non-divisional home favorites are 67-97 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional road underdogs.

Combining the two, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, non-divisional road underdogs are 31-19 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites when their opponent will next be non-divisional road underdogs. I’m not that confident, but the Chargers should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 24 Buffalo Bills 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5

Confidence: Low

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