Chargers

Los Angeles Chargers 2023 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2023 NFL Season Previews, Chargers

Quarterback

The Chargers set themselves up for the foreseeable future at the quarterback position when they selected Justin Herbert 6th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. Herbert was considered sort of a boom or bust prospect, but he made an immediate impact as a rookie, completing 66.6% of his passes for an average of 7.29 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, finishing 16th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 79.9 grade. Herbert then followed that up in 2021 by completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while finishing 3rd among quarterbacks on PFF with a 90.0 grade.

With Herbert on a cheap rookie contract, the Chargers decided to be aggressive last off-season to try to maximize their chances of winning while Herbert is still cheap, bringing in, among others, top cornerback JC Jackson and top edge defender Khalil Mack. The Chargers finished the 2021 season ranked 4th in offensive DVOA, but just 26th in defensive DVOA and the upgrades they made on defense seemed to improve them drastically, which seemed to make the Chargers contenders in 2022, assuming their offense continued to perform at a high level.

Unfortunately for the Chargers, that’s not what happened. Their defense did improve, finishing 16th in defensive DVOA, but that’s a bit of a disappointment considering the additions they made on defense last off-season and their offense was even more disappointing, falling to 19th in offensive DVOA. Overall, the Chargers finished 18th in DVOA and, while they did make the post-season at 10-7, they were not quite as good as their final record suggested and they lost in their first post-season game, blowing a big lead to the Jaguars.

The biggest reason for their disappointment was injuries. The Chargers only were a middle of the pack team in terms of adjusted games lost last season, with the 15th fewest in the league, but those injuries disproportionately affected some of their most important players, so the overall amount of games they lost to injury is a little misleading, especially when you consider that Herbert didn’t miss any games with injury, but clearly was not himself for an extended period of time after suffering a rib injury late in week 2. Over the next 5 games, Herbert completed just 63.7% of his passes for an average of 6.18 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while receiving a total grade from PFF of 66.2, as opposed to 70.4% completion, 7.07 YPA, 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, and a 81.5 PFF grade in his other 12 games.

Herbert hasn’t gotten hurt that much since entering the league, actually never missing a start due to injury, so he has a good chance to bounce back and continue being one of the better quarterbacks in the league in 2023, still only in his age 25 season. If he does miss time though, the Chargers would be in a lot of trouble, with their only reserve options being 2019 5th round pick Easton Stick, who has just one career attempt, as well as 7th round rookie Max Duggan, both of whom would obviously be huge downgrades from Herbert if forced into action. Herbert’s upside gives the Chargers one of the better quarterback situations in the league and he doesn’t have much of a history of injuries, but they would be in a lot of trouble if Herbert suffered an injury that kept him out of the lineup.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

With the Chargers still having much of their same supporting cast and core from a year ago, if they can be healthier this season, or at least if their injuries don’t disproportionately keep out their best players again, the Chargers could end up being the Super Bowl contenders they were expected to be a year ago. The Chargers are already 73.9 million over next year’s cap though, as a result of their aggressive strategy in recent off-seasons, even before taking into account a Justin Herbert extension, which could increase his cap number, so this season might be the Chargers’ last really good chance to be true contenders for the short-term future, as they will almost definitely have to cut or re-sign some key players to get under the cap, even if they continue being aggressive borrowing future cap space.

One of those players who will likely be gone in a year is wide receiver Keenan Allen, who was a cap casualty or trade candidate this off-season, owed 16.5 million non-guaranteed for his age 31 season in 2022, after a 2021 season in which he was one of the Chargers’ key players who missed significant time with injury, limited to 515 snaps in 10 games. Allen was likely only retained because the Chargers didn’t feel confident in their other options, with Josh Palmer and DeAndre Carter being the ones to take over most of Allen’s playing time and averaging just 1.24 yards per route run and 1.08 yards per route run respectively in his absence, a significant drop off from Allen, who averaged 2.18 yards per route run last season and who has averaged 2.07 yards per route run for his career.

The Chargers probably feel more confident about a long-term replacement for Allen now though, after using their first round pick on TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston. Even with Allen and fellow starter Mike Williams on the team, Johnson figures to still have a significant rookie year role. Allen figures to be healthier this season, but his age is becoming a concern, with 31-year-old wide receivers being 35.7% less likely to surpass 1000 yards in a season than 29-year-old wide receivers, a steep drop off for a short period of time. 

Williams also missed four games with injury last season, as well as their playoff loss, but he still averaged 1.93 yards per route run when on the field, in line with his 1.81 yards per route run average from the previous four seasons combined, and, unlike Allen, he is still on the right side of 30, going into his age 29 season, so I would expect more of the same from him this year, with probably fewer games missed due to injury (three games missed in his previous four seasons prior to last season).

DeAndre Carter played 698 snaps last season at wide receiver for the Chargers and won’t be back, but he struggled with the opportunity he got and, even without him, the Chargers still have great depth at the wide receiver position behind their top-3. Josh Palmer returns and, while the Chargers clearly don’t trust him as a long-term Keenan Allen replacement, as evidenced by the Johnston selection, Palmer is still a 2021 3rd round pick who wasn’t horrible last season even though he played close to a starter’s snap count, playing 898 snaps on the season, after being decent on 457 snaps as a rookie as well. The Chargers also used a 4th round pick on another TCU wide receiver, Derius Davis, to give them even more wide receiver depth. The Chargers will be much better prepared for a wide receiver injury this season and they should get healthier seasons out of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams as well.

Gerald Everett was the Chargers starting tight end last season, playing 667 snaps, averaging 1.24 yards per route run, and finishing with an overall grade of 67.1 on PFF, decent, but unspectacular. He could see a smaller role this season though, in the second season of a 2-year, 12 million dollar deal, as the Chargers probably didn’t want to play him as much as they did a year ago, but their other pass catching tight end option Donald Parham missed 11 games with injury. Parham flashed a lot of potential with a 2.06 yards per route run average in limited action last season, after the 2019 undrafted free agent averaged 1.31 yards per route run in limited action in his career prior to last season, so he, if healthy, should continue taking away at least some routes from Everett like he did down the stretch last season, even if Parham is still relatively inexperienced and a projection to a larger role. 

The Chargers also have Tre McKitty as a blocking tight end option, which is good because both Everett and Parham struggled in that aspect. A 2021 3rd round pick, McKitty has only averaged 0.44 yards per route run in his career, but is a solid blocker and theoretically could have untapped upside as a pass catcher, still only going into his third season in the league. He’s unlikely to have a big pass catching role though, behind Everett and Parham in the pecking order for targets at tight end and on a team with one of the most talented groups of wide receivers in the league.

Grade: A-

Running Backs

Running back Austin Ekeler was also a huge part of this passing game a year ago, actually leading the team with 127 targets, 19th most in the NFL among all positions, on one of the pass heaviest teams in the league, with the Chargers ranking 2nd in the NFL with 711 pass attempts. The Chargers have a new offensive coordinator this year with Kellen Moore coming in, but the Chargers figure to remain pass heavy and Ekeler figures to remain a big part of the passing game, even if their pass attempts go down slightly and Ekeler’s target share drops with Allen and Williams likely playing more and Quentin Johnston being added. 

Ekeler wasn’t that efficient with those targets, finishing with a 107/722/5 slash line, a 5.69 yards per target average, but running backs tend not to be efficient targets and Ekeler’s 1.63 yards per route run average was 6th in the NFL among running backs. That average is actually below his 1.95 career yards per route run average and last season was his 5th finish above 80 on PFF in six seasons in the league. Ekeler also was a huge part of this running game, leading the team with 204 carries for 915 yards and 13 touchdowns (4.49 YPC). 

The 2017 undrafted free agent wasn’t trusted with a huge running role early in his career, not surpassing 200 carries in a season until 2021, but he also impressed in that 2021 season with 4.42 YPC and 12 touchdowns, and he has an impressive 4.60 YPC average on 811 carries in his career. Ekeler should remain in a similar role in 2023. He’s going into his age 28 season though, which is around when running backs tend to decline, with running backs being 40.5% less likely to surpass 1,000 yards rushing in their age 29 season, as opposed to their age 27 season, a big dropoff for a short timespan. Ekeler should maintain his feature back role from the past two seasons and, barring injury, is a strong candidate for 200+ carries and 70+ catches, but he might not be quite as efficient as he has been in his career and he might be a little bit more susceptible to injury as he ages.

Joshua Kelley was second on this team among running backs with 69 carries last season and he had a decent 4.16 YPC average, but he has just a 3.49 YPC average on 213 carries in his career, since being selected in the 4th round in 2020, as well as just a 0.84 yards per route run average for his career. The Chargers selected Isaiah Spiller in the 4th round of last year’s draft and, while he played just 53 snaps as a rookie, it’s possible he could take a step forward in year two and earn the #2 job, in which he could be an upgrade on Kelley. That’s not a guarantee though and this backfield would be in a lot of trouble if Ekeler got hurt, especially in the passing game, but, as long as Ekeler is healthy and doesn’t decline in a big way, he elevates this running back group significantly by himself.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Along with their top-2 wide receivers both missing significant time last season, the Chargers also had significant injuries on the offensive line, most notably the loss of left tackle Rashawn Slater for the year after 175 snaps in three games. His replacement Jamaree Salyer actually wasn’t bad, posting a 69.2 PFF grade in 14 starts, despite being only a 6th round rookie, but he was still a big downgrade from Slater, who went 13th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, finished 9th among offensive tackles on PFF in 83.6 starts as a rookie, and then was on his way to a similar season in 2022, with a 84.0 PFF grade, before he got hurt. 

Returning for his third season in the league in 2023, Slater should pick up right where he left off and his return will allow Salyer to play another position, most likely right guard, where he would replace free agent departure Matt Feiler, whose disappointing 53.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season was part of the reason why the Chargers were not as good as expected on offense, a year after he finished with a 74.0 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2021. Salyer wasn’t a high pick and might not have a high upside, but he has a good chance to remain at least a solid starter at his new position and it wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on Feiler.

Incumbent right tackle Trey Pipkins wasn’t that good last season, with a 59.2 PFF grade in 14 starts, but the Chargers re-signed the 2019 3rd round pick to a 3-year, 21.75 million dollar deal this off-season to keep him off the open market, suggesting he’ll keep his job at right tackle and Salyer will move to guard. Pipkins has been a little better in the past, but he has just 24 career starts and has finished in the 50s and 60s on PFF in all four seasons in the league and, going into his age 27 season, I would expect him to remain a marginal starter at best.

If Salyer moves to right tackle, on the other hand, the Chargers’ options at right guard would be very limited, with their top options being 5th round rookie Jordan McFadden, 2021 5th round pick Brenden Jaimes, who has played just 23 offensive snaps in his career, and veteran journeyman backup Will Clapp, a 7th round pick in 2018 who has never surpassed 333 snaps in a season or finished above 60 on PFF. If none of them get into the starting lineup, they will be the Chargers top reserves along with likely swing tackle Foster Sarell, a 2021 undrafted free agent who struggled mightily with a 44.6 PFF grade on the first 250 snaps of his career last season and who will almost definitely be an underwhelming option, even as a reserve. Salyer starting at right guard to begin the season makes the most sense, though the Chargers do have some options, even if they’re not good ones.

Center Corey Linsley also missed some time last season, limited to 858 snaps in 14 games, and he was a big loss when he was out, as he finished with a 74.2 PFF grade when healthy. That’s nothing new for Linsley, who has finished above 70 on PFF seven times in nine seasons in the league, but age is becoming a concern, as he now heads into his age 32 season. Even if he declines in 2023, he should remain at least a solid starter, but his best days could easily be behind him and it would hurt this offensive line if he wasn’t his usual self.

Left guard Zion Johnson didn’t miss any time last season, starting all 17 games, but he was a bit of a disappointment, after being selected 17th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Johnson’s 64.8 PFF grade wasn’t bad, but you expect more out of guards taken in the first round than most other positions, as the position value usually isn’t high enough for an interior offensive lineman to go in the first round unless he’s a really good prospect. Johnson did get better as the season went on though, receiving a 70.8 PFF grade in his final seven starts, 10th among eligible guards over that stretch, after receiving a 59.4 PFF grade in first 10 starts, and he could easily continue that into his second season in the league or even improve further. It’s not a guarantee, but he could easily end up as an above average starter. This should be a solid offensive line, with Rashawn Slater’s return from injury being a big deal.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, acquiring Khalil Mack was arguably the biggest move the Chargers made in an aggressive off-season last year, trading away the 48th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft to acquire Mack and the 63.9 million that was remaining on his contract from the Bears. Mack was supposed to form a dominant edge defender duo with Joey Bosa, but he ended up mostly being a replacement for Bosa, who was another key injured player for this team in 2022, limited to just 165 snaps in 5 games. In Bosa’s absence, expected #3 edge defender Kyle Van Noy played 733 snaps as the primary edge defender opposite Mack and he was middling at best, with a 63.4 PFF grade and 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher.

Mack mostly held up his end of the deal, playing 860 snaps and finishing with 8 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate, but his overall 71.1 PFF grade was the worst of his 9-year career and he was even worse down the stretch with a 53.9 grade from week 10 on, after a grade of 85.4 through week 9, a concern considering Mack is now heading into his age 32 season in 2023. Mack also had just a 73.0 grade on 315 snaps in an injury plagued 2021 season in his final season in Chicago, after exceeding 86 on PFF in each of his first seven seasons in the league. Mack’s best days are almost definitely behind him at this point and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he declined further, but he’s not totally over the hill, so he could have at least a little bit of bounce back potential as well and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain an above average edge defender.

Bosa was good last season when he got on the field too, receiving a 85.8 PFF grade and totaling 2.5 sacks, 3 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate. That’s pretty par for the course for Bosa, who has finished above 85 on PFF in six of seven seasons in the league, playing the run well, but especially excelling as a pass rusher with 60.5 sacks, 78 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate in 84 career games, but, unfortunately, injuries have also been par for the course for him, as he has missed 30 games in his career, with at least one game missed in five of seven seasons in the league. He’s still only going into his age 28 season and should remain a highly effective player in 2023, but he could easily miss more time, even if it’s unlikely to be as much as a year ago, which is obviously a big boost for this defense.

The Chargers also added Tuli Tuipulotu in the 2nd round of the draft. He will replace departed veteran Kyle Van Noy as the #3 edge defender, likely giving them better insurance in case of another Bosa injury, as well as giving them a potential long-term replacement for the aging and expensive Mack, who the soon to be cap strapped Chargers might not bring back at his 23.25 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024. 

Tuipulotu being added and Bosa returning also could give Mack more of a rest than he got last season (50.6 snaps per game), which could in turn allow him to be more effective as he ages than he otherwise would have. Tuipulotu probably won’t have a huge impact as a rookie, but the Chargers probably won’t need him to behind Mack and Bosa, who are one of the best edge defender duos in the league, even with Mack aging and Bosa being injury-prone. 

The Chargers also still have 2021 4th round pick Chris Rumph, who struggled on 300 snaps last season, mostly in place of an injured Bosa, finishing with a 48.7 PFF grade. Rumph was better as a rookie, but only on 176 snaps and, while he could still have upside, he’s no guarantee to take a step forward in year three. He’ll probably still see action for this team, but, fortunately, he probably won’t be needed as more than a deep reserve role this season, in a talented position group overall.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The Chargers also made a lesser, but still significant addition at the interior defender position last off-season, signing Sebastian Joseph-Day to a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal to come over from the Rams. That didn’t work out as well though, as Joseph-Day had a mediocre year with a 51.6 PFF grade on 702 snaps, struggling against the run and as a pass rusher (4.8%). Joseph-Day was an above average run defender with the Rams, who selected him in the 6th round in 2018, but he had just a 5.9% pass rush rate and never played more than 481 snaps in a season in four seasons with the Rams.

Those low snap counts were in part because Joseph-Day missed seven games in his final season with the Rams in 2021, as he was a starter tat season and would have played a lot more snaps if he had been healthy, after being a reserve to that point in his career, but he was still a risky signing given how inexperienced he was and so far the signing has not paid off. He might have a little bounce back potential in 2023, but I wouldn’t expect him to be much more than a solid base package run stopper at his best, playing the nose tackle position in this defense at 6-4 310.

With Joseph-Day struggling, another, much cheaper free agent signing was actually their best interior defender a year ago, as Morgan Fox only received 7.25 million on a 2-year deal, but played 575 snaps and received a 62.7 overall grade from PFF. He struggled against the run, but excelled as a pass rusher with 6.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate. That’s in line with how he’s played throughout his career, finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all five seasons in his career in which he’s seen significant action, but totaling 18.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate over that stretch. 

Fox has mostly been a part-time player in his career, playing an average of 445 snaps per season and 27.1 snaps per game while playing all 82 games over those past five seasons, but he’s proven himself on snap counts of 561 and 575 over the past two seasons and is still only in his age 29 season, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, good pass rush, but poor run defense, on a similar snap count, most playing in sub packages.

Austin Johnson was on his way to a big snap count last season too, playing 287 snaps in 8 games (610 over a 17-game season), before getting hurt. Johnson played 665 snaps in 2021 with the Giants, but he struggled with a 58.3 PFF grade, as he did in 2022, when he had a 55.9 PFF grade. Johnson was better on smaller snap counts earlier in his career and could benefit from playing a smaller role in 2023, but, either way, he shouldn’t be guaranteed to maintain his same role from a year ago. Unfortunately though, the Chargers don’t have many better options. 

Otito Ogbonnia was a 5th round pick a year ago, but struggled mightily on 138 snaps and, even if he can take a step forward in year two, he has a long way to go to even being a decent rotational player. The Chargers also used a 6th round pick in this year’s draft on Boise State’s Scott Matlock, but he would likely struggle in a big rookie year role. Veteran Nick Williams was signed in free agency, but he’s going into his age 33 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in all but two of nine seasons in the league, including a 59.9 PFF grade on 227 snaps last season. Even though he’d be a mediocre one, Austin Johnson seems like their best option to play a significant role along with Joseph-Day and Fox. It’s an underwhelming group overall, but Fox can at least pressure the quarterback.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Chargers didn’t make many big additions this off-season, but they did sign linebacker Eric Kendricks to a 2-year, 13.25 million dollar deal, after Kendricks was released by the Vikings, ahead of the 9.5 million owed in the final year of his 5-year, 50 million dollar contract. Kendricks was an above average every down linebacker for a long time in Minnesota, finishing above 64 on PFF in five straight seasons from 2016 to 2020, while averaging 62.4 snaps per game and starting 113 of 117 games played in eight seasons in the league to date.

However, Kendricks fell below 60 on PFF in 2021 at 59.2 and was only slightly better at 61.1 in 2022, a concern given that he now heads into his age 31 season, which is why the Vikings opted to cut him loose. He’s a better value on a cheaper contract for the Chargers, but his best days are almost definitely behind him and could continue declining. There’s a good chance he is a downgrade from free agent departure Drue Tranquill, who had a 66.5 grade on 977 snaps last season.

Kenneth Murray was their other starting linebacker last season, playing 718 snaps, and he returns, but he struggled with a 47.8 PFF grade. Murray was a first round pick in 2020 and wasn’t horrible with a 54.4 PFF grade on 959 snaps as a rookie, but injuries limited him to 363 snaps in 11 games in 2021 and he struggled mightily with a 34.0 PFF grade, before only being better by default in 2022, meaning his mediocre rookie year still remains his best season to date in three years in the league.

Murray is still only going into his age 25 season and could develop into a solid starter, but that’s far from a guarantee and, with Murray’s 5th year option for 2024 being declined and 2023 becoming his contract year, the Chargers added another option in the third round draft, Washington State’s Daiyan Henley, who could take Murray’s job as soon as this season if Murray continues to struggle. Henley could also struggle as a rookie though, so there’s a good chance the linebacker spot next to Kendricks is a position of liability either way. Depth is also a concern at this position behind Kendricks, Murray, and Henley, as the rest of the bunch are career special teamers and undrafted rookies from the past two drafts who have never played a snap. Led by the aging Eric Kendricks, this is a mediocre position group.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Khalil Mack, the other big off-season addition on this defense last year was cornerback JC Jackson, who they gave a 5-year, 82.5 million dollar deal to come over from the New England Patriots, a deal which is the 8th highest in the NFL among cornerbacks in terms of average annual salary. The deal made sense and seemed like it would be a good fit for the cornerback needy Chargers, as Jackson had finished above 67 on PFF in all four seasons in New England, who signed him as an undrafted free agent in 2019, including a career best 82.6 on 944 snaps in his contract year 2021, 3rd in the league among cornerbacks. 

However, Jackson’s deal was a disaster in year one, as he was yet another key player significantly affected by injuries. Jackson suffered an ankle injury before the season started that cost him the first few games of the season and then limited him to a pathetic 28.7 PFF grade on 244 snaps in 5 games before a season ending torn patellar tendon, which is arguably the most serious low body injury a player can suffer, with a low percentage historically of returning to form, especially for skill position players that rely on athleticism. Jackson is expected back for the start of the season and should give the Chargers more than he did a year ago, but it seems unlikely he’ll be the caliber of cornerback that is worth the contract the Chargers gave him.

In Jackson’s absence, the Chargers top cornerbacks in terms of snaps played were Asante Samuel (971 snaps), Michael Davis (790 snaps), and Bryce Callahan (585 snaps). Callahan is gone, not retained ahead of his age 32 season, but the former two are still with the team and, even if Jackson can return to the lineup, they will continue to be part of the Chargers’ top-3 cornerbacks. That’s in part due to the Chargers’ lack of depth at the position, with their only reserve with any real NFL experience being 2022 6th round pick Ja’Sir Taylor, who played 161 nondescript snaps as a rookie, which is a concern given Jackson is coming off of a major injury, but Davis and Samuel are also starting caliber players in their own right and deserve to retain their job, even if the Chargers happen to add better depth.

Davis was the Chargers’ best cornerback a year ago, posting a 72.7 PFF grade on 790 snaps, but he missed three games with injury himself and that was a career best year for him, as the 2017 undrafted free agent had only finished in the 50s and 60s on PFF previously in his career, while playing an average of 774 snaps per season in 58 games over the previous four seasons (49 starts) prior to 2022. Davis is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but I wouldn’t expect him to be quite as good in 2023 and he has a history of missing time with injury consistently, missing time in four of six seasons in the league.

Samuel, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2021. He struggled a bit with a 56.4 PFF grade in 12 starts as a rookie, but he improved to 63.6 in his second season in the league and, still only in his age 24 season, obviously has the upside to take another step forward in year three and develop into an above average starter long-term. That’s not a guarantee and it’s possible he’ll regress some and that some of his rookie year struggles will recur, but I would expect a little bit of a better year from him in 2023 than a year ago, which would somewhat offset the likely decline by Michael Davis.

At safety, the Chargers lost Nasir Adderley this off-season to an early retirement due to injuries and he was decent with a 62.2 PFF grade on 882 snaps (15 starts). The Chargers did nothing to replace him, instead looking internally and promoting Alohi Gilman, who has played just 900 snaps in his career over the past three seasons as a hybrid cornerback/safety/linebacker and will now be an every down safety. Gilman was pretty mediocre in his old role though, maxing out at a 58.8 PFF grade and seems to be only starting due to the lack of a better option. 

The Chargers used a 3rd round pick in last year’s draft on safety JT Woods, but he only played 30 mediocre snaps as a rookie and doesn’t seem likely to break into the starting lineup in year two, while all their other reserve safeties are career special teamers and undrafted rookies who have never played a snap. Fortunately, the Chargers still have top safety Derwin James, who is one of the best players in the league at his position.  

A first round pick in 2018, James immediately broke out with a 88.3 PFF grade in his first season in the league, while making all 16 starts, only to see injuries limit him to 299 snaps in five games total over the next two seasons. James still played at about the same level when on the field in that limited action though and he returned to a healthier season in 2021, when he finished with a 78.1 PFF grade, followed by a 77.3 grade in another relatively healthy season in 2022. Injuries have remained a concern, as he’s missed at least two games in each of the past two seasons, missing five games total over that stretch, but he has been much more durable than he was earlier in his career and, still only in his age 27 season, he should remain one of the best players in the league for as long as he can stay on the field. 

Very well-rounded, James has finished above 70 in run defense grade and above 70 in pass defense grade in every season in his career and he’s especially excelled on the rare occasions he blitzes, contributing 9.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 31.0% pressure rate on just 142 pass rush snaps in his career. I would expect more of the same from him this season, even if that same is likely to include a couple games missed due to injury, with his last full season being his rookie year in 2018. James significantly elevates a secondary that otherwise has just decent cornerbacks, a likely weak spot at the other safety spot, and depth concerns overall.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Chargers entered last season with among the most talented rosters in the league, but were disappointing because of injuries to significant key players, with top wide receivers Keenan Allen (7 games missed) and Mike Williams (4 games missed), stud left tackle Rashawn Slater (14 games missed), talented center Corey Linsley (3 games missed), dominant edge defender Joey Bosa (12 games missed), expected top cornerback JC Jackson (12 games missed), new top cornerback Michael Davis (3 games missed) and top defensive back Derwin James (3 games missed) all missing significant time due to injury last season.

On top of that, star quarterback Justin Herbert suffered a rib injury early in the season and struggled by his standards for a stretch as a result. The Chargers went still 10-7, but went out in the first round of the post-season, a disappointment for a team that was aggressive last off-season and that looked like a contender entering the season, and they were arguably not even as good as that record suggests, with a point differential (+7) and DVOA (-0.8%) that suggests they were a middling team. 

This season, the Chargers should be healthier and they enter the season with a similar roster to a year ago, so expectations should be pretty high if they can have better injury luck. They got better as last season went on, as they got healthier and likely would have advanced at least one round in the post-season had Mike Williams not been reinjured the week prior in a meaningless week 18 contest, with the Chargers barely losing to the Jaguars without him. The Chargers are probably still behind the Chiefs in the AFC West, but most teams would be and the Chargers have a roster that can compete with the best in a loaded AFC, even if their path out of it to a Super Bowl appearance would be very tough and crowded. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 11-6, 2nd in AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-9-1)

The Chargers have 8-6, but they haven’t played quite as well as that overall this season, as their eight wins have come by a combined 33 points (4.125 points per win), while their six losses have come by a combined 64 points (10.167 points per loss). As a result, they rank just 21st in point differential, which is more predictive than winning percentage, and 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency (-4.03), which is more predictive than point differential. Injuries have been the primary reason why they have been underwhelming this season though and they have gotten a lot healthier in recent weeks, which has had a noticeable effect on their performance.

Quarterback Justin Herbert has played significantly better since recovering from an early season rib injury that he played through and he’ll have his two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams together for the third straight week this week, something he only had in 2 of his first 12 starts. The Chargers’ offensive line has also been better in recent weeks with center Corey Linsley back healthy, after he missed 3 games total earlier in the season, while their defense will get a big boost this week with stud safety Derwin James back from a 2-game absence. The Chargers are still missing expected top cornerback JC Jackson, stud edge defender Joey Bosa, and talented left tackle Rashawn Slater, which are significant absences, but they’re clearly in much better shape injury wise than they were earlier in the season.

This week, the Chargers play a Colts team whose primary issue this season has been the turnover margin, tied for a league worst -12 turnover margin. That’s not predictive week-to-week though and, somewhat counterintuitively, teams with bad turnover margins tend to cover against teams with good turnover margins, with teams covering at a 54.3% rate against a team that has a turnover margin 15+ points higher than theirs, because turnover margins don’t have nearly as much predictive value week-to-week as most people think.

With the Chargers at +3 in the turnover margin, that trend applies to this game and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is much more predictive than turnover margins, the Colts haven’t been quite as bad as their record would suggest, ranking 25th at -3.96. However, the Colts benched starting quarterback Matt Ryan this week for backup Nick Foles, who will be their third quarterback of the season and who will almost definitely be a downgrade from Ryan, which will hurt their chances of covering this spread. 

This line is relatively high, favoring the Chargers on the road by 4.5 points, with 3 out of 10 games being decided by four points or fewer, but the Chargers tend to overperform expectations on the road because they don’t have any homefield advantage in Los Angeles anyway (18-27 ATS at home, 27-17 ATS on the road since moving in 2017) and the Chargers also are at an advantage as a Pacific Time Zone team in a night game against an Eastern Time Zone team, a spot in which teams cover at about a 60% rate historically. We’re not getting nearly enough value with the Chargers for them to be worth betting, but I would pick them for pick ‘em purposes, albeit for one of my lowest confidence picks of the week.

Los Angeles Chargers 25 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -4.5

Confidence: None

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (7-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (7-6)

Both of these teams are 7-6, but neither has played as well as their record suggests, with the Titans seven wins coming by an average of 6.6 points per game and the Chargers’ coming by 4.3 points per game, as opposed to defeats of victory of 13.5 points per game and 10.1 points per game in their six losses respectively. Despite their similarities, the Chargers are still the significantly better team though, for a few reasons. For one, they have played a tougher schedule, while the Titans’ only win against a winning team came against the 7-5-1 Commanders, who were 1-4 at the time. 

The Titans have also gotten kind of lucky in their only two multiscore wins, getting a defensive touchdown to push the margin to 9 against the Colts, while their 10-point win over the Packers came against a team in a terrible spot, playing on a short week after an overtime game, a spot in which teams are just 2-22 ATS all-time. Despite that, the Chargers still have a slight edge in point differential (-31 vs. -35) and, in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is even more predictive than point differential, the Chargers have an even bigger edge.

Overall, the Titans rank 29th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while the Chargers rank 25th, not nearly as good as their record suggests, but still 1.5 points better than the Titans. The Chargers are also healthier, though largely by default. Their defense is still missing top cornerback JC Jackson, stud safety Derwin James, and dominant edge defender Joey Bosa, but their offense has gotten back their two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, as well as talented center Corey Linsley, a big boost, even if they are not as good as they were a year ago when stud left tackle Rashawn Slater was healthy.

The Titans, meanwhile, are missing top wide receiver Treylon Burks, starting left tackle Taylor Lewan, their two best edge defenders Denico Autry and Harold Landry, talented starting linebackers Zach Cunningham and David Long, and starting cornerbacks Kristian Fulton and Elijah Molden. This line favors the Chargers by three at home, where they have next to homefield advantage since moving to Los Angeles in 2017, going 18-27 ATS at home, as opposed to 27-17 ATS on the road, so it’s still hard to be confident in the Chargers this week, but they should be the better side for pick ‘em purposes.

Los Angeles Chargers 24 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -3

Confidence: None

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-4) at Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)

The Chargers are 6-6, but their six wins have all been close and have come by a combined 24 points, while their six losses have come by a combined 61 points, leading to a point differential of -37 that ranks just 24th in the NFL. They’re even worse than that suggests as they have benefitted from a below average schedule and they have a +4 turnover margin, tied for 5th best in the NFL, which is not predictive week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive and takes into account strength of schedule, the Chargers rank 29th, about 6 points below average.

The Chargers came into the season with a lot of promise, but they have had a lot of problems with key players missing injury. They got talented wide receiver Keenan Allen back from injury a few weeks ago and this week their other talented wide receiver Mike Williams and stud center Corey Linsley return, but they still remain without talented left tackle Rashawn Slater, expected top cornerback JC Jackson, and stud edge defender Joey Bosa, who would be among their best and most important players if healthy, as would safety Derwin James, who will miss his first game of the season. Also missing their first games of the season are lesser players in defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day and right tackle Trey Pipkins.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, lost last week in San Francisco, but that was their first loss this season in nine games started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa and this week the Dolphins will get back stud left tackle Terron Armstead from injury, whose absence was a big problem in last week’s loss. Even with last week’s loss taken into account, as well as the stretch they played without Tagovailoa earlier in the season, the Dolphins still rank 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 3 points above average and 9 points ahead of the Chargers. My roster rankings also have the Dolphins as the significantly better team, giving them a 11.5-point edge, with the Dolphins heading in the opposite direction from the Chargers injury wise.

Normally I would shy away from an east coast team playing a west coast team at night, as that is historically a bad spot to bet a team against the spread, with circadian rhythms significantly benefitting the players on the west coast team, who are three hours behind the east coast team. However, in addition to the significant line value we are getting with the Dolphins as mere 3-point favorites, the Chargers also have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, lacking fans in the area and, as a result, are 27-17 ATS at home, as opposed to 17-27 ATS on the road, since moving to the city in 2017. Because of that, I can confidently take the Dolphins as my Pick of the Week at -3. I would like them at -3.5 as well, but for a lesser bet.

Miami Dolphins 30 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Miami -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders: 2022 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)

The Chargers are 6-5, but their six wins have come by a combined 24 points, while their five losses have come by a combined 54 points, giving them a point differential of -30. They’re even worse in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 27th in the NFL, about four points below average, which is more predictive than point differential. They got talented wide receiver Keenan Allen back from injury a couple weeks ago, but they still remain without their other talented wide receiver Mike Williams, stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, talented starting center Corey Linsley, expected top cornerback JC Jackson, and stud edge defender Joey Bosa, who would be among their best and most important players if healthy.

The Raiders are missing a pair of key offensive playmakers, tight end Darren Waller and slot receiver Hunter Renfroe, but their defense gets back their top cornerback Nate Hobbs from a 6-game absence this week, a big boost for a unit that got a big boost a few weeks ago when top linebacker Denzel Perryman returned after missing 3 games. They also have a better point differential (-11) than the Chargers, despite being a couple games behind them in the standings. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Raiders rank 20th, 2.5 points above the Chargers, and they have a 5-point edge over the Chargers in my roster rankings as well.

Despite that, the Raiders are only 1-point favorites at home. My calculated line suggests they should be favored by 4, so we’re getting great line value with them at -1. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Raiders are coming off of back-to-back overtime games, a spot in which teams cover at just a 40.6% rate all-time, but that’s over a sample size of just 33 games, so it’s not enough to convince me not to bet on the Raiders at least somewhat. This isn’t a big play, but the Raiders are still worth a bet.

Las Vegas Raiders 24 Los Angeles Chargers 20

Pick against the spread: Las Vegas -1

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals: 2022 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (5-5) at Arizona Cardinals (4-7)

This game is a tough call. I think both of these teams are overrated and not as good as their record. The Chargers are 5-5, but their five wins have come by a combined 23 points, while their five losses have come by a combined 54 points, giving them a point differential of -31 which ranks 23rd in the NFL. They’re even worse in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 27th, about five points below average, which is more predictive than point differential. They’re getting a little bit healthier with talented wide receiver Keenan Allen returning last week, but they also remains without their other talented wide receiver Mike Williams, stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, expected top cornerback JC Jackson, and stud edge defender Joey Bosa, who would be among their best and most important players if healthy.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 4-7 with a -56 point differential, fourth worst in the NFL, despite a +3 turnover margin, which is not consistent week-to-week. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, they rank 25th, about four points below average, and they are even worse in my roster rankings, about 7.5 points below average, as injuries continue to mount, primarily on the offensive line, where they are missing four expected starters. Meanwhile, their defense is also without top cornerback Byron Murphy.

I’m going to take the Chargers in this game for pick ‘em purposes for two reasons. One is that this line favors the Chargers by 2.5 and, while that’s right where I have this line calculated, the single most likely outcome of this game is the Chargers winning by exactly a field goal, as they are the better team and field goals are the most common margin of victory. On top of that, the Chargers tend to be better than expected on the road, as a result of their lack of homefield advantage in Los Angeles, going 27-16 ATS on the road since moving in 2017, as opposed to 17-27 ATS at home. This is a no confidence pick, but the Chargers seem like the better side. I would probably take the Cardinals at +3 though. That’s how close this one is for me.

Los Angeles Chargers 31 Arizona Cardinals 28

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -2.5

Confidence: None

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

The Chargers are 5-4, but their only win by more than one score came by 10 points against arguably the worst team in the league in the Houston Texans, while two of their losses came by 14 points or more, giving them a point differential of -28 (23rd in the NFL). That’s despite a +2 turnover margin, which is not predictive, and they are even worse than that in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 30th, 5.5 points below average, which is much more predictive than turnover margin. 

The biggest problem for the Chargers has been their injuries, with stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, their two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, stud edge defender Joey Bosa, and expected #1 cornerback JC Jackson, among others, all out for extended periods of time. It seems like Allen and Williams could return this week, after practicing throughout the week, but they only practiced in a limited fashion and they are returning from injuries that have cost them seven games and two games respectively, so it’s far from a guarantee that they’ll play, that they’ll play at full strength, and that they’ll play the full game.

With Allen and Williams at least somewhat likely to return in some fashion, the Chargers are only 1.5 points below average in my roster rankings, which isn’t great, but it’s better than where they are in schedule adjusted efficiency. However, the Chiefs still fare much better in both, ranking 2nd in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 8 points above average, and 4th in my roster rankings, about 9 points above average. Not only do the Chiefs rank 3rd in the NFL in point differential at +64, but they have done it despite a -4 turnover margin, which should improve going forward.

The Chargers also have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, which has been the case since they arrived in the city in 2017, as they lack a local fanbase. As a result of largely playing in front of crowds that favor the road team, the Chargers are 16-27 ATS at home since moving in 2017, as opposed to 27-16 ATS on the road. Chiefs fans especially show up to games in Los Angeles and, unsurprisingly, the Chargers are 1-3 ATS against the Chiefs in Los Angeles. I want to wait on the status of Mike Williams and Keenan Allen before locking in a bigger bet, but getting the Chiefs as just 5-point favorites in what amounts to a neutral site game against a still banged up Chargers team seems like a great value. This is a medium confidence pick for now, but could end up as a high confidence pick.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -5

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers: 2022 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) at San Francisco 49ers (4-4)

The 49ers are favored by a touchdown at home against the Chargers, which might seem like a lot if you look at these two teams’ records, but neither team’s record tells the whole story. The Chargers are 5-3, but their only win by more than one score came by 10 points against arguably the worst team in the league in the Houston Texans, while two of their three losses came by 14 points or more, giving them a point differential of -22. The Chargers are even worse than that in terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 27th, 4.5 points below average.

The Chargers had a lot of promise coming into the season, but injuries have been a huge problem for them, leading to them ranking significantly below average in my roster rankings as well, 3.5 points below average, which largely lines up with schedule adjusted efficiency. While center Corey Linsley has returned, the Chargers this week will be without stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, their two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Wallace, stud edge defender Joey Bosa, and expected #1 cornerback JC Jackson, among other lesser injuries.

The 49ers, meanwhile, are getting healthier coming out of their bye week. Wide receiver Deebo Samuel, tight end George Kittle, and left tackle Trent Williams are all among their best offensive players and all missed time earlier this season, but all three will play this week, a huge boost for an offense that also got a big boost from adding Christian McCaffrey in a trade a few weeks ago. The 49ers’ defense is also getting healthier out of the bye, with linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Jimmie Ward returning to action.

The 49ers have also played better than their 4-4 record even with all of their injuries, ranking 9th in point differential at +29 and 5th in schedule adjusted efficiency, four points above average. With the reinforcements they have gotten in recent weeks, I have the 49ers 5 points above average, with the Chargers 3.5 points below. That gives us a calculated line of around San Francisco -10, so we’re actually getting some line value with the 49ers, as high as this line is. This isn’t a big play, but the 49ers are worth betting this week and, if this line happens to go down to 6.5, this would become a bigger play.

San Francisco 49ers 27 Los Angeles Chargers 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco -7

Confidence: Medium

Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons: 2022 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)

Coming into the season, I thought the Chargers were one of the most talented teams in the league, but they have been arguably the most injury affected team in the league since then, with several key players missing extended time. While center Corey Linsley has returned, the Chargers will be without stud left tackle Rashawn Slater, their two talented wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Wallace, stud edge defender Joey Bosa, and expected #1 cornerback JC Jackson, among other lesser injuries.

The Chargers still have a 4-3 record, but their -25 point differential is significantly worse than their record and they are even worse in schedule adjusted efficiency, ranking 29th, 4.5 points below average. Missing the players they are currently missing, my roster rankings have them around the same spot, about four points below average. Despite that, the Chargers are favored by a full field goal on the road in Atlanta against a decent Falcons team. 

The Falcons’ defense has struggled mightily this season, ranking 31st in schedule adjusted efficiency, and they are currently missing their top two cornerbacks Casey Hayward and AJ Terrell, but their offense ranks 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency and that is the more predictive side of the ball. The Falcons aren’t quite as good in my roster rankings, about a half point above average on offense and two points below average overall, but my calculated line still has them as 6-point home favorites over this overrated Chargers team, so we’re getting great line value with them as full field goal favorites. Atlanta +3 is my top pick this week and the money line is a great value as well.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Los Angeles Chargers 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers: 2022 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-3) at Los Angeles Chargers (4-2)

I was surprised this line was so low, favoring the Chargers by just 5 points, after favoring them by 7.5 points on the early line last week. The Seahawks did pull the minor upset at home over the Cardinals last week, but the Cardinals are an overrated team who ranks just 26th in schedule adjusted efficiency and who should never have been favored in that game in the first place, so that win should not have moved this line by that much. 

The Chargers had a pretty underwhelming performance last week, eking out a win over the Broncos, and they’ve had a slower start to the season than expected, going 4-2, but having a negative point differential and ranking just 24th in schedule adjusted efficiency, in large part due to injuries to key players like center Corey Linsley, left tackle Rashawn Slater, edge defender Joey Bosa, wide receiver Keenan Allen, and cornerback JC Jackson, who have all missed significant time this season. However, Linsley will play this week, Jackson could be better another week removed from his injury, and Allen may also return, so things are looking up injury wise.

With their injury situation improving, the Chargers rank about a point above average in my roster rankings, not as high as they were ranked to begin the season, but still better than they’ve played thus far this season. The Seahawks, meanwhile, rank 6 points below average in my roster rankings. In terms of schedule adjusted efficiency, the Seahawks actually rank slightly higher than the Chargers, ranking 21st, but that is primarily due to an offense that ranks 7th in schedule adjusted efficiency, while their defense ranks 31st, and I think it’s much more likely that their defense continues to struggle than it is that their offense continues playing at a high level, with quarterback Geno Smith’s performance likely to regress going forward.

My calculated line for this game is Chargers -7 and that’s even taking into account that the Chargers have next to no homefield advantage in Los Angeles, leading to them going just 16-26 ATS at home since moving in 2017. We’re not getting significant line value with the Chargers at -5, but they are in a good spot with a bye up next. Home favorites of 6+ cover the spread at a 63.3% rate before a bye and, while the Chargers are not favored by that much, they deserve to be, so that trend could still apply. I am waiting on the injury status of Keenan Allen and Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett, but, assuming Allen returns after two weeks of limited practice and Lockett does not play after not practicing all week, the Chargers should be bettable this week. This is a low confidence pick for now, but I will update this pick before gametime.

Los Angeles Chargers 31 Seattle Seahawks 23

Pick against the spread: LA Chargers -5

Confidence: Low