Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bengals, Chargers

Cincinnati Bengals (6-5) at San Diego Chargers (4-7)

Last week, I took the Chargers for a big play for several reasons. Philip Rivers was 31-19 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they were still 10-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including a cover the week before in Denver. As underdogs, as they were last week, Rivers was 12-4 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-0 ATS as home dogs. I also felt the Ravens were not as good as their record and I noted their struggles as non-divisional road favorites in the last 2 seasons, going 1-5 ATS in those spots, including a loss in almost exactly this same situation in San Diego the year before.

Well, I thought I had it perfectly handicapped. The Chargers led throughout, including 13-3 with a few minutes left in the game. The Ravens a scored to make it 13-10, but the Chargers had the ball and a 3 point lead with about 4 minutes left. That is 4 minute offense time, go conservative and try to run as much as much time off the clock as you can. Norv Turner, instead, passed on 2nd and 3rd down and the Ravens got the ball back quickly with time to do damage.

However, good defense by the Chargers had the Ravens backed up to 4th and 29 and unless the Ravens could convert, they would lose and I would cover. So what happened? Flacco dropped back, all of his receivers were covered downfield, so he checked down to Ray Rice who broke about 4 tackles and somehow converted for 30 yards. Or did he? Replays showed he was short, but on review, the refs upheld the call. The Ravens drove down for a field goal and then won it late in overtime. It was an infuriating loss for me on a bad week.

That being said, I still feel like the Chargers were the right side, but they just got unlucky and this week, I once again feel they are the right side. We’re getting line value with the Chargers. Last week, this line was San Diego -3. Now it’s Cincinnati -2.5. That’s a 5.5 point swing. For what? Because the Bengals blew out the crappy Raiders? The Ravens did that too. Because the Chargers barely lost to the Ravens? This makes no sense. The Ravens were only -1.5 in San Diego and they barely covered. This line suggests the Bengals are better than the Ravens. I know I’ve been on record calling the Ravens overrated many times, but when the Ravens and Bengals played, the Bengals lost by like 30. There’s no way they’re better than them.

The net points per drive method of computing line value gives us a real line of Cincinnati -1.5, which means that because of the line movement, we are now getting line value. The Bengals rank 8th in net points per drive at .4 (net points per drive being offensive points divided by total drives minus defensive points allowed divided by total drives). The Chargers are 16th at -0.03. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (average drives per game) and add 3 points for homefield, you get around Cincinnati -1.5. In spite of the huge line movement, the public is still pounding the Bengals. This is significant because the public always loses in the long run, so fading the public in the long run makes sense. I do it whenever I feel it’s appropriate.

Oh and all of those trends I mentioned earlier when talking about last week that were in the Chargers’ favor, those are still in play here. Philip Rivers is 31-20 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they’re still 10-6 ATS in week 11 or later. As underdogs, as they are here, Rivers is 12-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-1 ATS as home dogs. They’re even better in week 13 or later, going 23-14 ATS in the Philip Rivers era, including 8-2 ATS as dogs, 2-0 ATS as home dogs.

Actually, because they lost last week, it opens up a few other trends. Home dogs tend to cover off a loss as home dogs, going 59-40 ATS since 2002. Meanwhile, teams are 26-10 ATS since 2002 off a loss at home in overtime, excluding road dogs. Home dogs are 8-1 ATS off a loss at home in overtime since 1989, including 5-0 ATS off a loss as home dogs. Once again, it’s a big play on the Chargers.

Public lean: Cincinnati (70% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 20 SD 5

Final update: This is one where I’m going to disagree with the sharps.

San Diego Chargers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: San Diego +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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San Diego Chargers: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 17 (-1)

Record: 4-7

Net points per drive: -0.03 (16th)

DVOA: -10.9% (24th)

Weighted DVOA: -9.7% (24th)

Tier 5: Teams many predicted to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but that are long shots now

Studs

C Nick Hardwick: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 6 attempts

CB Antoine Cason: Allowed 2 catches for 15 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

FS Eric Weddle: 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 6 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

LE Kendall Reyes: 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

LE Antonio Garay: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 10 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

ROLB Antwan Barnes: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 stops

RE Corey Liuget: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 43 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

P Mike Scifres: 9 punts for 479 yards, 4 inside 20, 8 returns for 66 yards, 45.9 net yards per punt

K Nick Novak: 4 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 70.5 yards per kickoff, 18.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (30, 47)

Duds

LT Michael Harris: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

RT Jeromey Clary: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards on 6 attempts

LG Rex Hadnot: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 4 attempts

TE Antonio Gates: Caught 2 passes for 13 yards on 2 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 0.5 YAC per catch

ROLB Shaun Phillips: 1 sack on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Vaughn Martin: 1 quarterback hit on 25 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

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Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (8-2) at San Diego Chargers (4-6)

The Chargers haven’t beaten a team other than the Chiefs since week 2, when they beat the Titans, who aren’t exactly great either and then before that they beat Oakland. Why would anyone pick them to beat the Ravens? Well, that seems to be the public sentiment this week as the public is pounding Baltimore as small road favorites, but I’ll tell you why San Diego is a smart bet this week.

The first reason is pretty simple and it’s just that the public loves Baltimore. The odds makers always make money in the long run, so it’s smart to bet against public leans, especially heavy public leans. If you were to do that over the course of a season, you’d probably win money every year (the only way you wouldn’t would be the juice).This week, I think, it’s especially smart to do so because the odds makers haven’t had a good 3 weeks. They should be due for a big week.

It goes deeper than that too. This is right around the point every season when the Chargers start playing incredibly well. In his career, Philip Rivers is 31-19 ATS in week 11 or later. In the last 3 years, as mediocre as they’ve been, they’re still 10-5 ATS in week 11 or later, including a cover last week in Denver. As underdogs, as they are here, Rivers is 12-4 ATS in week 11 or later, including 3-0 ATS as home dogs. It’s rare that the Chargers have been home dogs in the Philip Rivers era, this is only the 5th time, but they are 3-1 ATS in the first 4 instances, including a late season (week 15) blowout win over these Ravens last year (34-14). More on that game later. The Chargers are also in a good spot as dogs before being favorites (they host Cincinnati next week). Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The Ravens, meanwhile, are in a bad spot. As good as they are at home (16 straight wins), they generally struggle as road favorites, going 1-5 ATS as non-divisional home favorites in the last 2 seasons. Last year, they lost to 4 non-playoff teams on the road, Tennessee, Seattle, Jacksonville, and these Chargers, in a game that was situation wise very similar to this one. I put a big play on the 6-7 Chargers against the 10-3 Ravens last year and I’m going to do it again this year. This year, they barely beat the lowly Chiefs in Kansas City. They also generally struggle on the West Coast (2-10 ATS in franchise history).

Besides, if you think about it, what’s their motivation here? They have a 2 game lead on the division after their win over Pittsburgh last week and next week they play the Steelers again. If they beat the Steelers next week, they’ll have at least a 2 game lead on the division and the tiebreaker even if they lose this game. This game means nothing. Teams, for whatever reason, tend to struggle after beating the Steelers anyway, going a ridiculous 18-40 ATS since 2002 (no other team has a trend like that). The Ravens are 3-6 ATS after beating them in that time period. They probably won’t get up for this game and will underachieve against a Chargers team that always gets hot at this time and who beat them in this exact situation last year.

The Ravens are overrated anyway. They’re only +61 in points differential and most of that came from two wins against Cincinnati and crappy Oakland. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and they haven’t had a particularly tough schedule. They could have easily lost to Pittsburgh last week if Charlie Batch had stepped in for Leftwich when he got clearly hurt. They are just 9th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

They allow more yards per game than they gain. Against Pittsburgh, they were outgained by over 100 yards and even against Oakland, a huge win, they got outgained. They’re doing really well with turnovers. Only New England (+20) has a better turnover differential than their +12, but that’s not sustainable and their wins have been close enough that it’s definitely something to worry about. They’re also only 4-6 ATS against the spread.

As you can imagine, we are getting some line value with the Chargers. Using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be San Diego -3 and using the yards per play differential method, this should be a pick em. Neither one says that the Ravens should be road favorites here and I agree, trends aside. With trends factored in, the Chargers seem like the clear choice, especially with the public heavy on Baltimore in a week where the odds makers need to make their money back. We might even see another 34-14 type game.

It’s a big play on the Chargers. I’m not worried at all that they’ve quit on Norv Turner. As bad of a Head Coach as he is, they have never fully quit on him and just given up on a season. Philip Rivers is a huge supporter of his Head Coach and this bunch will play hard to save his job, like they always do late in the season. They’re not getting run out of the building. The last game they played where they didn’t keep it even close was week 3. They’re still playing hard.

Instead of putting 4 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 5 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Baltimore (80% range)

Sharps lean: SD 14 BAL 4

Final update: Another heavy sharps lean lines up with one of my picks of the week, a very good sign.

San Diego Chargers 27 Baltimore Ravens 17 Upset Pick +105 5 units

Pick against spread: San Diego +1 (-110) 0 units

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San Diego Chargers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 17 (+0)

Record: 4-6

I think it’s time for the Chargers to go on their annual late season run. Unfortunately, just like the last 2 seasons, probably all this late season run is going to end up doing is saving Norv Turner’s and AJ Smith’s job and not actually help them make the playoffs. This week, they play Baltimore, who is overrated and generally struggles on the road as favorites. If they can win that game, I think they can, they’ll be 5-6 with an easy schedule. They finish at home for Cincinnati, @ Pittsburgh (maybe without Roethlisberger), vs. Carolina, @ the Jets, and vs. Oakland.

Studs

WR Danario Alexander: Caught 7 passes for 96 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 0.7 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Marcus Gilchrist: Allowed 4 catches for 19 yards on 4 attempts, 2 quarterback hurries on 13 blitzes, 2 batted passes, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops

FS Eric Weddle: Allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

LE Kendall Reyes: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 3 stops

Duds

LT Michael Harris: Allowed 1 sack and 7 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 2 yards on 4 attempts

RT Jeromey Clary: Allowed 2 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 23 yards on 6 attempts

TE Antonio Gates: Caught 2 passes for 17 yards on 4 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

SS Atari Bigby: Allowed 5 catches for 88 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

RT Corey Liuget: Did not record a pressure on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Denver Broncos (6-3)

In my Power Rankings this week I joked, “Why does it feel like the Chargers are going to lose to Denver, fall to 4-6, and then go on their annual late season run, finish 8-8 or 9-7, miss the playoffs barely, and save Norv Turner’s and AJ Smith’s jobs? Oh, that’s right, that happens every year.” Well, I’m not so sure that their annual late season run can’t start this week.

It’s more likely that they drop this one and then go on their run, just because Denver is on a roll right now and their schedule gets easy after this one (home for Baltimore, and Cincinnati, at Pittsburgh, home for Carolina, at the Jets, home for Oakland), but you can rule out them winning this one or at least being competitive.

The Chargers are road dogs after a road loss, a situation teams are 80-47 ATS in since 2008. Norv Turner is also 5-1 ATS in same season divisional revenge games, though it’s worth noting that teams are just 9-16 ATS trying to avenge a same season loss in which they blew a 14 point or larger halftime lead. Philip Rivers, meanwhile, is 30-19 ATS in week 11 or later, including 11-4 ATS as dogs.

The Broncos, meanwhile, are home favorites after back-to-back wins as road favorites, a situation teams are 54-37 ATS in since 1989. We’re also getting some line value with them as the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Denver -13 (they rank #1 in yards per play differential) and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Denver -4.

If we average those out, we were getting a little bit of little value with Denver (Denver -8.5), who is absolutely rolling right now. It’s weird to say, but Tracy Porter getting sick was the turning point for their season. Obviously, I wish the best for Porter in his recovery from him mysterious illness, but as well as Peyton Manning is playing, they wouldn’t be a complete team if it weren’t for Chris Harris and Tony Carter stepping up and playing phenomenal in their secondary and that wouldn’t have happened if Porter were playing.

They haven’t lost since Porter went out. Harris and Porter are both former undrafted cornerbacks who were afterthoughts on the depth chart that Jack Del Rio has playing out of their minds. Carter is allowing 11 of 32 for 115 yards, 2 interceptions, 4 deflections, and 1 penalty and is unfortunately not even on the Pro-Bowl ballot. He’s also scored twice defensively. Chris Harris, meanwhile, is allowing 23 of 40 for 255 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 1 pass and committing just 1 penalty. He also has 3 sacks and is playing the run very well.

They rank 6th in pass defense, 2nd in run defense and lead the league in yards per play differential. In rate of sustaining drives, they’re 9th. Peyton Manning is completing 69.7% of his passes for 8.2 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, all above his career averages. Their only issue is that they’re -4 in turnovers, but they’re improving in that area, though Willis McGahee’s fumbling problem is an issue.

I’m scared to bet against Manning, but I’m also worried this could be the week that San Diego turns it on. I’m taking the Chargers just to fade the public and because if the Chargers are down 10-14 late driving for the backdoor cover, I’d rather have them than Denver, though it’s close because I really like Denver’s defense, especially since they started giving Tony Carter more playing time.

Public lean: Denver (70% range)

Sharps lean: SD 11 DEN 5

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 27 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: San Diego +8 (-110) 1 unit

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San Diego Chargers: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 15 (-2)

Record: 4-5

Why does it feel like the Chargers are going to lose to Denver, fall to 4-6, and then go on their annual late season run, finish 8-8 or 9-7, miss the playoffs barely, and save Norv Turner’s and AJ Smith’s jobs? Oh, that’s right, that happens every year. The Chargers should just fire that duo on the spot if they lose to the Broncos. It’s long overdue. More cheery news for Chargers fans: The least time they beat a team other than the Chiefs was week 2, when they beat the Titans. Their only other win was against Oakland in a game they could have lost if the Raiders’ didn’t botch 3 snaps after their long snapper got hurt.

Studs

WR Danario Alexander: Caught 5 passes for 134 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 16.8 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

MLB Donald Butler: 4 solo tackles, 3 assists, 5 stops, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards and a touchdown on 1 attempt, 1 sack on 6 blitzes

Duds

LT Michael Harris: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

LG Tyronne Green: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

C Nick Hardwick: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 40 yards on 8 attempts

RG Louis Vasquez: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 1 attempt

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San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (4-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4)

The Buccaneers are surging thanks to Doug Martin’s improved play and the improved chemistry between Josh Freeman and new free agent deep threat acquisition Vincent Jackson. Josh Freeman has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 14.6% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 18 of 37 for 753 yards, 4 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

On the year, Freeman is completing 55.7% of his passes for an average of 8.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He ranks 9th in the NFL in QB rating, ahead of established veteran quarterbacks like Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Tony Romo, as well as young hot shots like Robert Griffin and Andrew Luck, and he’s just 1 spot behind Drew Brees. Even better, he’s hot right now, completing 100 of 173 (57.8%) for 1556 yards (9.0 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his last 5 games, and he hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 3. Jackson, meanwhile, is 7th in the league in receiving yards per game, leads the league in yards per catch, 2nd in yards per pass route run, 8th in quarterback rating when thrown to, 10th in drop rate, and 2nd in deep pass catch rate.

The Freeman to Jackson connection has opened up things underneath for Mike Williams, who is having a bounce back season, and of course for Doug “muscle hamster” Martin (worst nickname I’ve ever heard) who is having a breakout rookie year. They’ve won 3 of 4 since the bye and sit at 4-4 with a +41 points differential that ranks 6th in the loaded NFC (for reference, it’d be 4th in the AFC). They rank 12th in yards per play differential and 14th in rate of sustaining drives differential.

The Chargers, meanwhile, continue to fail to impress. They snapped a 3 game losing streak last week, but they did it against Kansas City in a game that would have been embarrassingly close if the Chargers didn’t get two defensive touchdowns in a few minutes of game time. They can’t count on that every week. Their last win against a team other than the Chiefs was week 2 when they beat the Titans, which isn’t much better. And their only other win was against Oakland in a game they could have lost if not for an injury to the Raiders’ long snapper, which led to 2 botched snaps and a blocked punt in an 8 point game. Again, not much better.

Meanwhile, they rank 18th in yards per play differential and 11th in rate of sustaining drives differential. Using those statistics to compute real line, we get -4.5 for the yards per play method and -2.5 for the rate of sustaining drives method. And that doesn’t even take into account that the Buccaneers have the momentum and come from a stronger conference (and have played a tougher schedule). The NFC is 23-13 against the AFC this year. In actuality, the line is at -2.5, so we’re getting better value with the Buccaneers.

In addition to being the better value, the Buccaneers are in the better spot. Technically, neither of these teams is in a good spot. Both are playing non-conference games before being divisional dogs. Teams are 43-68 ATS as non-divisional dogs before being divisional dogs, 11-29 ATS as non-conference dogs before being divisional dogs since 2002. That applies to San Diego, who goes to Denver next week. Meanwhile, teams are 32-60 ATS as non-conference favorite before being divisional dogs since 2002. That applies to Tampa Bay, who goes to Carolina next week.

That being said, using common sense, San Diego is clearly in the worse spot for three reasons. One, a game against Denver, who leads the division and who beat them in embarrassing comeback fashion earlier this year, is more likely to distract the Chargers than a game against Carolina, who is 2-6 and who the Buccaneers already beat this year, for the Buccaneers. Two, the Chargers will definitely be dogs in Denver next week, but you can’t say the same about Tampa Bay. The early line has them at just +1 in Carolina right now and that could easily flip to -1 or higher this week.

Three, the Chargers have to travel to Tampa Bay to play this game on the East Coast at 1 PM ET as a West Coast team, a situation teams generally struggle in. Under Norv Turner, the Chargers especially struggle, going 1-5 ATS in this spot. They’re also just 8-18 ATS on the road under Norv Turner before week 11, including 2-13 ATS outside of the division. The Buccaneers are the better team in the better spot and they’re laying less than a field goal at home. We also don’t have to worry about heavy public leans here because the action is pretty split. I really like the Buccaneers this week.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: TB 13 SD 7

Final update: No change. Still one of my two favorite picks this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 San Diego Chargers 20

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -2.5 (-110) 4 units

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San Diego Chargers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 15 (+0)

Record: 4-4

I was not impressed with their showing at home against the crappy Chiefs last week. If not for two defensive touchdowns, that could have easily been at the very least an embarrassingly close win to an inferior opponent for a team that held a 3 game losing streak coming in. They can’t keep relying on their defense to score like that every week. I am, however, ranking them about 4 or 5 spots higher than I otherwise would have because I like the combination of their weak conference and the fact that they always go on a late season run. They need to play better though, starting this week on the road in Tampa Bay against the upstart Buccaneers.

Studs

QB Philip Rivers: 18 of 20 for 220 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 122.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 21 drop backs (1 sack, 4 of 5, 1 interception)

RG Louis Vasquez: Did not allow a pressure on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 1 attempt

LG Tyronne Green: Did not allow a pressure on 22 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 3 attempts

MLB Donald Butler: 10 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, allowed 2 catches for 29 yards on 2 attempts

Duds

LT Jared Gaither: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 21 yards on 3 attempts

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San Diego Chargers: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 8 (-7)

Record: 3-4

I’m not sure this is the same Philip Rivers anymore. I thought his high turnover rate from 2011 was an outlier and that he’d bounce back, especially since he played so much better in the 2nd half of last season (14 interceptions in games 1-8 and 6 in games 9-16). After all, Eli Manning threw 25 picks in 2010 and he didn’t have such a bad 2011.

However, Rivers’ struggles seem to have carried over into this season. Not only has his turnover rate remained the same, but his YPA of 6.8 YPA is a career low and down over a whole yard per play from his “disappointing 2011.” He doesn’t look like the same player as he was from 2006-2010. Some of the blame falls on his supporting cast. The Chargers have 10 draft picks in the first 3 rounds in the last 3 years and only 2 of them have been used on offensive players, including one, Vincent Brown, who is currently out with an injury (the other is Ryan Mathews). At the same time, no late round picks from those 3 drafts have stepped up and become starters offensively.

Meanwhile, they’ve let key offensive players like Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles walk out the door without replacing them and key cogs in this offense from Rivers’ heyday like Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates are either retired or not playing at nearly the same level, without being properly replaced. Some of the blame can fall on Rivers himself, however. In his age 31 season, he doesn’t seem to be the same player, for whatever reason. However, the Chargers always finish strong and in the weak AFC, you can’t count them out.

Studs

LG Tyronne Green: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 3 attempts

RT Jeromey Clary: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 5 attempts

RB Ronnie Brown: Caught 7 catches for 85 yards on 8 attempts, rushed for 17 yards (7 after contact) on 4 carries

FS Eric Weddle: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

MLB Donald Butler: 7 solo tackles, 2 assist, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes, was not thrown on

P Mike Scifres: 6 punts for 279 yards, 4 inside 20, 2 returns for 7 yards, 45.3 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Jared Gaither: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 12 yards on 5 attempts

WR Robert Meachem: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 2 drops

TE Antonio Gates: Caught 2 passes for 14 yards on 4 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 0.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

SS Atari Bigby: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 4 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 4 missed tackle

CB Antoine Cason: Allowed 5 catches for 45 yards on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

LE Vaughn Martin: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 penalty

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (1-6) at San Diego Chargers (3-4)

Side note: It’s week 9 already?!?!? What?!?!?!?

On Thursday Night, the rule of thumb is to take the home team, assuming they’re favorites, as home favorites are 45-27 ATS on Thursday Nights. This makes sense. The home team not only doesn’t have to travel on a short week, meaning they get more valuable time to practice, game plan, and rest, but they’re also typically a more veteran, experienced team who won’t be fazed by playing on short rest. This trend didn’t work last week as Minnesota lost as home favorites to the Buccaneers, but there’s a simple explanation for that and it’s just that Minnesota is not a veteran, experienced team, despite being favorites, which is why it wasn’t a big play on the hosts.

San Diego is the more veteran, experienced team here and playing at home, but they’re also divisional home favorites. Divisional home favorites are just 17-16 ATS on Thursday Nights. This makes sense. Having familiarity with a team, like the Chiefs do with division rival San Diego, nullifies some of the effects of being a young, inexperienced team on the road on a short week. Besides, while the Chargers are technically a veteran, experienced team, you can’t really say they won’t be fazed by playing on a short week. I’m not sure there’s anything that you can say won’t faze them considering how horribly coached they are.

Philip Rivers has a strong career record off a loss as favorites, going 14-9 ATS in this situation in his career, including 12-6 ATS when favored again. This makes sense because good quarterbacks always tend to bounce back after disappointing losses. However, I’m not sure this is the same Philip Rivers anymore. I thought his high turnover rate from 2011 was an outlier and that he’d bounce back, especially since he played so much better in the 2nd half of last season (14 interceptions in games 1-8 and 6 in games 9-16). After all, Eli Manning threw 25 picks in 2010 and he didn’t have such a bad 2011.

However, Rivers’ struggles seem to have carried over into this season. Not only has his turnover rate remained the same, but his YPA of 6.8 YPA is a career low and down over a whole yard per play from his “disappointing 2011.” He doesn’t look like the same player as he was from 2006-2010. Some of the blame falls on his supporting cast. The Chargers have 10 draft picks in the first 3 rounds in the last 3 years and only 2 of them have been used on offensive players, including one, Vincent Brown, who is currently out with an injury (the other is Ryan Mathews). At the same time, no late round picks from those 3 drafts have stepped up and become starters offensively.

Meanwhile, they’ve let key offensive players like Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles walk out the door without replacing them and key cogs in this offense from Rivers’ heyday like Marcus McNeill, Kris Dielman, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Antonio Gates are either retired or not playing at nearly the same level, without being properly replaced. Some of the blame can fall on Rivers himself. In his age 31 season, he doesn’t seem to be the same player, for whatever reason. Either way, I don’t see his season turning around this week, especially off 3 days rest.

For the Chiefs, they have a different kind of quarterback issue, namely that all of theirs suck. However, the lesser of two terrible quarterbacks is starting this week as Brady Quinn suffered a concussion, meaning Matt Cassel will make this start on short rest. I thought the decision to start Quinn was a mistake (unless the goal was to secure the #1 overall pick).

Cassel was turning the ball over at an incredible rate, but that was bound to regress to the mean eventually. Right now, he has a interception rate of 4.9%, almost double his career rate of 2.5% (not including this season). Meanwhile, they have a turnover differential of -18. That won’t continue. Not only are they on pace to shatter the record of -30 (they’re on pace for -41), a record that’s stood since 1965, turnovers differential is also inconsistent on a week to week basis, as seen here.  Even if they break that record and finish with say a turnover differential of -31, that’s an average of -1.4 per game the rest of the way, which is barely half as bad as what they’ve done through 7 games (-2.6 per game).

Cassel also offers a career YPA that was over a yard per play better than Quinn’s. Even last week in relief against the Raiders, he looked much better than Quinn ever did in his limited action. Before Cassel went down, this team ranked better in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drive differential than they do now. With Cassel back under center, that should improve and unless he continues to throw interceptions at a rate almost double his career rate and the Chiefs continue to lose the turnover battle at a record pace, they’ll look improved with Cassel under center. They won’t be good or anything, but they should be able to hang with a Charger team that isn’t very good either.

Even at their current yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives, we are getting line value with the Chiefs at +7.5. The rate of sustaining drives method gives us a calculated “real” line of +7 and the yards per play method gives us a calculated “real” line of +6.5 and that’s including some of Brady Quinn’s playing time. Again, they won’t be good with Matt Cassel under center, but the Chargers aren’t very good either and as long as Cassel is starting, the Chargers don’t deserve to be more than touchdown favorites over them.

The trends also say Kansas City is the right spot. Divisional home favorites like the Chargers are 10-27 ATS off a loss as non-divisional road favorites since 2002. The Chargers lost to the Browns in Cleveland last week. Meanwhile, teams with 1 win or fewer like the Chiefs are 77-42 ATS as divisional dogs after week 8 since 1989. I think the reason for this is twofold. One, these tend to be huge respect games for the bad team. Two, they have an advantage in a divisional game that they wouldn’t have in any other game because it’s a divisional opponent that they know, so they’re undervalued based purely off their record.

I hate betting on a team like the Chiefs, especially as dogs on a Thursday Night, but I like the Chiefs to keep this close for a small play. Unfortunately, San Diego is also my survivor pick this week on a bad week for survivor. Everyone in my top-14 in my Power Rankings has either already been picked or is playing another top-14 team, except Denver who travels to Cincinnati. It was close between the Broncos and Chargers for survivor this week, but I hate picking road teams. San Diego is #15 and Kansas City is #31, so I like the Chargers to win, though I think the Chiefs will cover the 7.5 point spread. Also, I like the under as the under is 70-52 on Thursday Nights.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

San Diego Chargers 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +7.5 (-110) 2 units

Total: Under 41.5 (-110) 1 unit

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