Chargers

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Browns, Chargers

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (1-6)

I normally hate taking teams that are heavily publicly backed, but that’s exactly what I’m doing by taking the Chargers this week. I’m also taking a West Coast team on the road in the Eastern Time Zone at 1 PM, a situation that is normally bad for the visiting team. Under Norv Turner, it’s been no different for the Chargers as they’ve gone 1-4 ATS when traveling 3 time zones for a 1 PM ET start.

The main reason I’m doing this is because the Chargers are road favorites off of a bye. Those teams tend to cover at an incredibly high rate, going 42-14 ATS since 2002. On top of that, as I’ve mentioned in other picks, I do expect the disparity between favorites and dogs to close up. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year. Neither dogs nor favorites have gone more than 10 games above .500 in a given year in at least the last decade.

Because of that, it’s no longer a bad idea to take a heavily backed team, so long as they are favorites. It’s not going to be a big play or anything like that, but I like the Chargers to get a road win here and cover in Cleveland as long as the line is 3 or fewer. The Chargers are coming off a bye and have had to listen to how bad they are for 2 weeks after that embarrassing loss against the Broncos. Well how about this? Favorites are 29-15 ATS since 1989 after blowing a lead of 10 or more to a divisional opponent. After a bye, there’s obviously fewer cases, but teams are 4-1 ATS.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: SD 12 CLE 7

Final update: No change.

San Diego Chargers 27 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 2 units

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San Diego Chargers: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 8 (+0)

Record: 3-3

Last week, Norv Turner was the 1st Head Coach to lose to an Interim Interim Head Coach and this week, he was the first to blow a 24 point halftime lead since 1992. And yes, I have the Chargers 1 spot ahead of the Broncos even though the Broncos beat them last week just like I had the Chargers spot ahead of the Broncos last week even though I was planning on picking Denver to win. San Diego always gets hot in the 2nd half of the season. It’s what they do. It’s going to be a close division race, probably the closest in the NFL, but I think San Diego will win the rematch in Denver (huge revenge game) and win it on a 2nd or 3rd tiebreaker or something like that over Denver with both teams at 10-6.

San Diego Chargers

Studs

RG Louis Vazquez: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 2 attempts

FS Eric Weddle: Allowed 2 catches for 7 yards on 2 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 3 blitzes, 1 batted pass

Duds

QB Philip Rivers: 25 of 41 for 247 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 3 drops, 69.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 45 drop backs (4 sacks, 5 of 11, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 1 interception)

LT Mike Harris: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

RT Jeromey Clary: 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 5 attempts

WR Robert Meachem: Caught 3 passes for 30 yards on 7 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 0.3 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Eddie Royal: Caught 2 passes for 22 yards on 5 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 11.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 2 interceptions when thrown to

LE Kendall Reyes: Did not record a pressure on 12 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chargers

Denver Broncos (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (3-2)

From 2003-2010, Peyton Manning was 14-2 ATS as an underdog. This year he is 0-3. Does that mean he’s done or not the same player? Not necessarily. His QB rating is actually 6 points higher than his career average and his completion percentage (66.0%), his YPA (7.7), and his TD/INT ratio (11/3) are all better or equal to his career averages.

This week, we get another chance to bet on him as an underdog, and I’m going to take it for the 3rd straight time (I didn’t take it in Atlanta week 2 because of how good Matt Ryan is at home). I can’t really explain why he’s 0-3 ATS as a dog this year. He’s not playing poorly. His team isn’t either, ranking 4th in the NFL in yards per play differential (more on that later). I just expect it to eventually correct itself. Manning on Monday Night Football is another good betting spot, as he’s 10-5 ATS on Monday Nights, even including that week 2 loss to Atlanta.

Now onto that aforementioned 4th ranked yards per play differential, they have the edge by .9 yards per play over San Diego, who is actually negative. Divide that by .15 to get 6 and add 3 points for home field and you get a “real” line of Denver -3. Not only are we getting Peyton Manning as a dog, but we’re getting Peyton Manning as a dog in a situation where he deserves to be the favorite.

I haven’t been impressed at all by San Diego’s “strong start.” Not only are they negative in yards per play differential, they haven’t really beaten anyone. Much like last year, this normally slow starting team (10-13 in weeks 1-6 and 38-20 afterwards from 2007-2010) has a good early record because they’ve beaten up on crappy teams. Is anyone impressed by their wins over Oakland (1-3), Tennessee (2-4), and Kansas City (1-4)? How about their home blowout loss to the Falcons (5-0) or their loss in New Orleans (1-4)? The Broncos, meanwhile, have a brutal schedule (Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, Oakland, New England) and have still yet to lose by more than 10.

The Broncos are also have a few trends on their side. Road dogs are 60-40 ATS since 2008 off a loss as road dogs. Meanwhile, teams are 73-48 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 20-8 ATS off a loss as dogs. The Broncos host the Saints next week. The Broncos do have a bye in between, which weakens the trend a bit, but dogs before a bye who will be favorites after the bye are 52-33 ATS since 1989, so there’s still a trend.

I hate betting on publicly backed underdogs, which is what Denver is this week and we’ve lost some line value because this opened at -3, but the large amount of action on Denver has brought it down to -1, which is another bad sign. The odds makers seem to not mind if people bet on Denver, or maybe even they want them to. That being said, I love Denver this week.

The combination of getting points with Peyton Manning and the better team, on Monday Night Football, with powerful situational trends in their favor is too much to pass on. This is a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. 1 point games are rare, about 2% of the time, and it’s not worth the extra 15 cents to be protected against something that would hurt me 1% of the time.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: DEN 18 SD 9

Final update: No change.

Denver Broncos 27 San Diego Chargers 17 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Denver +1 (-110) 0 units

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San Diego Chargers: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 8

Record: 3-2

Once again, the Chargers fell flat in a non-conference game. Norv Turner is now 8-14 ATS against non-conference opponents as Head Coach of the Chargers, 4-9 ATS before a divisional contest. This week is a huge early season test for them as they host the Broncos. I think at the end of the day, Chargers/Broncos is going to be the tightest divisional race, so these Head-to-Head matchups are huge.

Studs

RB Ryan Mathews: Rushed for 80 yards (30 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 12 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 6 passes for 59 yards on 8 attempts

LG Tyronne Green: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 51 pass block snaps, rushed for 32 yards on 4 attempts

WR Malcom Floyd: Caught 5 passes for 108 yards on 8 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 6.6 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

Duds

TE Antonio Gates: Caught 3 passes for 19 yards on 6 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 3.7 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

CB Antoine Cason: Allowed 7 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 1 stop

SS Atari Bigby: Allowed 4 catches for 63 yards on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes

MLB Donald Butler: 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 18 yards on 1 attempt

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San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Chargers, Saints

San Diego Chargers (3-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-4)

Last year, the Chargers started 4-1. It was a shock to many people before they’re normally horrible early in the season, especially compared to later in the season. Prior to last year, The Chargers were 14-12 from weeks 1-4 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. However, their 4-1 record was explainable because they were beating up on bad teams like Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, and Denver (Prebow). Eventually, they went on a 6 game losing streak, which essentially eliminated them from the playoffs, despite a strong 4-1 finish, as usual.

This year, they are 3-1, the 2nd straight year they’ve had a winning September record under Philip Rivers and still only the 2nd time in that time period that they’ve had a winning September record. Have they ended their normal September woes or is this going to be a repeat of last year? I lean more towards the latter. They’re not going to be as bad as they were last year. I still think they’ll win the division, but it’s worth noting who their 3 early season wins were against: Oakland, Tennessee, and Kansas City, who are all 1-3. Meanwhile, they got blown out at home by Atlanta and in spite of their 3-1 record, they do have a negative yards per play differential.

The Saints, however, are 0-4. In spite of that, you could still argue this is the 2nd best team they’ve played all year. Despite their record, I don’t believe the Saints are awful. They won 13 games last year and even without Sean Payton, they still have Drew Brees. They looked pretty good last week, almost winning in Lambeau Field and they should continue to look improved as they continue to adjust to life without Sean Payton. Teams that are 0-4 or worse are actually 6-2 ATS since 1989 as favorites of more than 3. This is truly New Orleans’ last stand and in the Superdome (where they were 9-0 ATS and SU last year), I expect this proud, veteran team to put up one final huge effort to save their season.

Meanwhile, this is the type of game San Diego normally loses. Facing Denver next week, they’re not going to be focused for a 0-4 non-conference opponent. They are just 4-8 ATS under Norv Turner in a non-conference game before a divisional game. They don’t do well with non-conference games in general, as illustrated by that Atlanta game. It’s only a small play because I haven’t really been able to get a read on either of these teams thus far this year (1-3 on San Diego’s game and 0-4 on New Orleans’ games) and because the “real” line formula says we do have line value with San Diego and because the public likes New Orleans too, but I do feel that New Orleans will play their best game of the season this week and do it against a San Diego team that has one of their patented “fall flat” games.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

Sharps lean: NO 20 SD 6

Final update: Sharps really love New Orleans. I liked them to begin with, but I’m adding a unit. This is their last stand and San Diego has proven they don’t really care about non-conference games under Norv Turner with a divisional game up next. They head home to face Denver next week.

New Orleans Saints 31 San Diego Chargers 24

Pick against spread: New Orleans -3.5 (-110) 3 units

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San Diego Chargers: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 8 (-1)

Record: 3-1

The Chargers finish September with a 3-1 record for the 2nd year in a row, something they hadn’t done in the Norv Turner era prior to last year. However, much like last year, they beat up on crappy teams in September and got blown out against the only good team they faced. They started last year 4-1 before losing 6 straight and eventually barely making it to .500. They also rank just 20th in yards per play differential. There are certainly plenty of concerns with this team, but for now, they’re the favorite in the AFC West, in my opinion. Those two those games against the Broncos are going to be key though because I think this is the tightest division race in the NFL.

Studs

C Nick Hardwick: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 34 yards on 14 attempts

RG Louis Vasquez: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 21 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

RT Jeromey Clary: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

FS Eric Weedle: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 interception, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

WR Robert Meachem: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Antoine Cason: Allowed 6 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle

LOLB Jarret Johnson: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 2 missed tackles

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San Diego Chargers extend WR Malcom Floyd

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Chargers, Offseason Moves 2012

Malcom Floyd was in a contract year this year and only making 2 million dollars. When I heard the Chargers had signed him to a 3 year extension, I was worried they overpaid. Yes, he’s the #1 receiver by default right now, but he’s never really proven he can be a consistent top option, even with an elite quarterback throwing him the ball. He’s also missed 9 games in the last 2 years and is already 31 years old.

However, then I found out this deal pays him just 11 million over 3 years with 8 million guaranteed. How the hell did they do that? This is their #1 receiver. He’s an underrated player who has produced when healthy, catching 125 passes for 2196 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last 34 games, just over two seasons.

He’s had some issues with his consistency and with injuries and he’s not getting any younger and I’ve always felt he was a marginal receiver being made more productive by a great receiver and he’s not a big YAC guy, but this is a bargain for him. This 3 year deal pays him less than the 13.5 million dollar one they gave to Eddie Royal and is less than half the size of the 4 year, 25.9 million dollar deal they gave Robert Meachem. Floyd has almost double the yardage those two have combined (121). Those two are overpaid, but this is still a bargain and given that the other two aren’t very good, they had to lock him up going in a contract year.

Grade: A

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs

San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

Looks like the Chargers aren’t over their early season woes. They beat two crappy teams in week 1 and 2, but much like last year, they got destroyed once they played a real opponent. Last year they started 4-1, beating crappy teams, most of them by small margins, but lost 6 straight once the schedule got harder. Before last year, they were 14-12 from weeks 1-5 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last week, they’re actually just 4-8 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era and they’re just 3-9 ATS on the road during that time period.

This week, they are road favorites in Kansas City. Road favorites are just 6-13 ATS this year and 7-12 straight up, but I think that might be a fluke and that it probably had something to do with the replacement refs. If the replacement refs were still being used, I think Kansas City would have a big trend on this side, but they aren’t.

The Chargers were road favorites in Oakland week 1 and won, proving to be an exception to what was the rule in the first 3 weeks of the season, but they barely did it despite Oakland losing their long snapper and messing up 3 separate punts, which the Chargers managed to turn into just 9 points. The Chiefs are a comparable team to the Raiders, maybe a little better. The Chiefs are also in a good situation coming off a close road win. Dogs coming off a close win as road dogs are 19-12 ATS since 2002.

This would be a strong lean if we still had replacement refs, but I like the Chiefs this week. The Chargers are not to be trusted in September, especially on the road and especially as favorites. It just wouldn’t an NFL season if people weren’t calling for Norv Turner’s job at the end of September and given what happened last week, they would almost definitely be doing so if the Chargers lost year in Kansas City. The Chiefs seem to have gotten their act together after a rough start to the season, much like they did last year, and this game should resemble the Chiefs’ close win over the Chargers in Kansas City last year.

On top of that, the public is betting San Diego pretty heavily and I like to fade the public when I can. One note, rather than putting 2 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’ll put all 3 on the money line. 1 point games happen about 2% of the time and it’s not worth the extra 10 cents for protection against something that has a 1% chance of hurting me.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): KC 12 SD 8

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +100 3 units

Pick against spread: Kansas City +1 (-110) 0 units

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San Diego Chargers: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Chargers

Last week: 7 (+0)

Record: 2-1

So maybe these are the same old early season Chargers. They beat up on bad teams like last year, but got destroyed against a very good Falcons team. The good news is they should get better as the season goes on, as well, and they’re getting healthier. Antonio Gates and Ryan Mathews were back last week and Jared Gaither could be back this week. He’d be a huge boost to an offensive line that ranks 30th in the league in pass block efficiency, thanks, in large part, to an undrafted rookie left tackle. They still lead the AFC West thanks to a Denver loss and I think they’ll finish right above the Broncos and win the division.

Studs

MLB Donald Butler: 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 4 attempts

Duds

QB Philip Rivers: 21 of 38 for 173 yards and 2 interceptions, 3 drops, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 59.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 20 of 40 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 7 of 18, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 2 drops)

LT Michael Harris: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

LG Tyronne Green: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

TE Antonio Gates: 3 catches for 22 yards on 7 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions, 1 drop

RE Corey Liuget: Did not record a pressure on 30 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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