Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1)

The Steelers lost last week in Philadelphia 34-3, their biggest loss since 1989. It was also just the 15th time since 2003 that a favorite lost by 31 points or more. Obviously, the Steelers should not have been 4 point road favorites in Philadelphia, but that’s more so because the Eagles have been an underrated team all year, rather than Pittsburgh being a bad team. In fact, Philadelphia +4 was my Pick of the Week last week for that exact reason. The Steelers should be able to bounce back this week against Kansas City, especially with arguably the best running back in the NFL, Le’Veon Bell, returning from suspension this week. In fact, teams are 91-54 ATS off of an ATS loss of 28 or more since 2002. Teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed in that situation.

Unfortunately, this line still reflects that the Steelers should be able to bounce back this week. Despite the big loss, this line only moved from 6 to 5 in the past week. If this line were 4 or fewer, I’d be comfortable putting money on the Steelers, but it’s hard to be confident in them as 5 point favorites, as about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Bell is coming back this week, but they’re missing a key starter on both sides of the ball with guard Ramon Foster and linebacker Ryan Shazier expected to be out for this one. They should still be the right side, but this is a low confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. This game has a significant one, as the Chiefs were favored by 4 points on the early line, but the line has since dropped to 3, as a result of the Jets’ upset victory in the road in Buffalo last week. That might not seem like a huge movement, as it’s only one point, but about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so that point matters. The line movement is also a bit of an overreaction, as the Bills are not a good opponent, so the Jets’ road win isn’t that noteworthy. It’s definitely not noteworthy enough to warrant a significant line movement.

This line now suggests these two teams are even. That’s not far off, but I think the Chiefs are a little bit better going into this game, especially with Brandon Marshall on a snap count for the Jets, due to a knee injury. I had the Chiefs ranked a little bit higher coming into the season than the Jets and I haven’t seen anything through 2 games to suggest I was wrong about either of these teams. I don’t have a strong lean either way, but I’m taking the Chiefs. This could easily be a field goal push though.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -3

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0)

The Texans are in a tough spot this week, as they’re favored by 2 at home against the Chiefs, but have to turn around and play in New England in 4 days after this game on Thursday Night Football, a game in which they’ll definitely be underdogs. As a result, they could easily look past the Chiefs a little bit here at home. Teams are just 48-71 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs, meanwhile, host the Jets next week, an easier matchup, and figure to be more focused. Underdogs are 80-56 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

I’ve been holding out all week waiting for the line to move to 3 on this one, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen and the line is now even as low as 1 or 1.5 in same places, after opening at 2.5. That’s likely the result of big bets by sharp bettors on the Chiefs, so downward line movement is actually a good sign here. It’s more or less all the same under 3, though obviously try to get this as high as possible if you can. The Chiefs are banged up early in the season, missing running back Jamaal Charles and outside linebacker Justin Houston, but backup Spencer Ware has replaced Charles well and the Texans are missing key players too, without left tackle Duane Brown, center Nick Martin, and middle linebacker Brian Cushing, while JJ Watt does not look 100% off of back surgery. I like the Chiefs to come in and win this one outright in “upset” fashion.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Houston Texans 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

The Chiefs are favored here by 6.5 points at home over the Chargers. If you took these two teams’ records from last season, that makes sense, as the Chargers won just 4 games and the Chiefs won 11. However, these numbers don’t tell the whole story. While the Chargers only won 4 games, they were competitive in most of their games, only losing by more than 8 points three times, including just 1 loss by more than 8 points on the road. Close losses weren’t the end of their bad luck last season, as they had the 2nd worst special teams performance in the league in terms of DVOA and had a -5 differential in return touchdowns. Both of those things tend to be pretty random and hard to predict on a year-to-year basis and even average performance in both of those metrics helps this team win more close games. They actually outgained opponents on the season by 158 yards and finished 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, just 5 spots behind the Chiefs.

That’s despite the fact that they had among the most injuries in the league last season, finishing with the 6th most adjusted games lost to injury in the league. They were especially banged up down the stretch and still managed to keep it close with the Chiefs week 14, covering as huge road underdogs in a 7 point loss. The Chargers are much healthier this season, with the likes of Keenan Allen, Orlando Franklin, and King Dunlap returning after injury plagued 2015 seasons. They also added Matt Slauson and Casey Hayward, two very underrated signings, this off-season, though they lost long-time safety Eric Weddle and will be without #3 overall pick Joey Bosa in this one, as he works back into shape after a stupid off-season holdout.

Instead, the Chiefs are the ones coming into the season banged up, as Jamaal Charles and Justin Houston, two of their best players, will miss the start of the season with knee injuries. Both were out for last year’s close call with the Chargers week 14, but the Chiefs are also now without top cornerback Sean Smith, who left as a free agent this off-season. This line shouldn’t be any higher than 3 (suggesting these two teams are about even) and the Chargers actually played better on the road last season than at home, where they have very few fans, so I like the Chargers’ chances of taking this one straight up. At the very least, the game should be even closer than the 7 point game played between these two teams in Kansas City week 14 last season and the Chargers’ chances of winning straight up are better than the +230 money line suggests.

San Diego Chargers 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23 Upset Pick +230

Pick against the spread: San Diego +6.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Quarterback

There was a time last season when the Chiefs won 11 straight games, the final 10 games of the regular season and a victory over the Texans in the first round of the playoffs. However, that came after a 1-5 start seemed to end their season. The Chiefs rallied to make the playoffs but ultimately lost in the divisional round to the New England Patriots. What changed after the first 6 weeks for the Chiefs? Well, the biggest change is simply the schedule. In those first 6 games, the Chiefs took on 5 eventual playoff teams, going 1-4 in those 5 games. The rest of the way they faced just 3 other playoff teams, only one more in the regular season, going 2-1 in those 3 games.

Overall, they were 3-5 against playoff teams last season, but two of those wins came against a Houston team that was arguably the worst team in the NFL to make the playoffs and the other came against a Denver team that was playing with a very hobbled Peyton Manning at quarterback. In their other 10 games, they went 9-1, only losing by 1 to the Bears, the only sub .500 team to beat them last season. Simply put, this was a slightly above average team that beat everyone they were better than and lost to everyone who was better than them. That didn’t really change all season; the only things that did was their schedule and their record.

Kansas City’s defense was their noticeably better unit, as they finished 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but just 14th in rate of moving the chains. Their offense wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t good either and it was their defense that often carried them. This average offense unsurprisingly was led by one of the most average quarterbacks in the NFL, Alex Smith. Smith, a late bloomer as the #1 overall pick in 2005, had a breakout year in 2011 in Jim Harbaugh’s first year with the 49ers, finishing 8th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus that season. However, he’s largely been a very average quarterback since, grading out 19th, 20th, 16th, and 18th among quarterbacks from 2012-2015 respectively.

Smith has definitely shed the system quarterback label, having success in both Jim Harbaugh’s and Andy Reid’s offenses. Part of that is the fact that he’s had two strong offensive minds as his head coaches and has been allowed to play in systems that best fit his skill set, but Smith deserves a lot of the credit too. Going into his age 32 season, he is who he is at this point, so he’s never going to be someone that can carry a team, but you can win with him if you surround him with enough talent. Smith’s numbers have improved in every season he’s been in Kansas City, as he completed 65.3% of his passes for an average of 7.42 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions last season, but that’s largely a result of improved talent around him.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

Smith now has a pair of big-time receiving options to throw to. That wasn’t the case in his first year in Kansas City, when running back Jamaal Charles led the team with 693 receiving yards and a washed up Dwayne Bowe was their best wide receiver. Those days are gone now. Wide receiver Jeremy Maclin was acquired on a 5-year, 55 million dollar contract last off-season, following a 2014 season in which no Kansas City wide receiver scored a touchdown, while tight end Travis Kelce is homegrown, drafted in the 3rd round in 2013. The Chiefs kept Kelce on a huge extension this off-season, worth 46 million over 5 years. Both are expensive, but they’re also both so valuable to this team.

Maclin led the way with 1088 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. He wasn’t the deep threat he was in 2014 with the Eagles, when he averaged 15.5 yards per catch in Chip Kelly’s offense, but that was always going to change, as the Chiefs simply are not an offense that pushes the ball downfield often; that’s not Smith’s strength as a passer. He averaged just 12.5 yards per catch, but caught a career high 87 passes and finished 25th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Maclin’s career had a disappointing start, as he graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 4 years in the league from 2009-2012 and then missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, he’s bounced back very well from that torn ACL, playing the best football of his career. He’s missed just 1 game with injury since and has graded out 14th and 25th respectively among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus in 2014 and 2015.

Kelce’s career also got off to a rough start, as he missed his entire rookie year with a knee injury. That knee injury, which required microfracture surgery, actually limited him into 2014. Though he led the Chiefs in receiving that year, catching 67 passes for 862 yards and 5 touchdowns, he did so on just 688 snaps, as the Chiefs had him on a snap count all season. He finished the 2014 season 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run by a tight end, only behind Rob Gronkowski, and, showing strong run blocking as well, finished as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked tight end.

In 2015, he ditched the snap count. He wasn’t as good on a per snap basis in 2015 as he was in 2014, as he barely surpassed his 2014 receiving numbers, catching 72 passes for 872 yards and 5 touchdowns, despite playing significantly more snaps than he did in 2014 (923). His run blocking also was not nearly as good as it was in 2014 and, overall, he finished just 21st among tight ends on Pro Football Focus (12th in pure pass catching grade). Still, he’s one of the better tight ends in the NFL and should have somewhat of a bounce back year this season. It’s also worth noting that he hasn’t missed a game in 2 years, so his early career knee problems seem well behind him. The Chiefs were wise to lock him up long-term and he has an outside shot at 1000+ yards in 2016.

The issue is that the Chiefs are still really thin in the receiving corps after Maclin and Kelce. No other Chiefs receiver had more than 451 yards last season. Albert Wilson, the #2 receiver, had 35 catches for 451 yards and 2 touchdowns and their next leading receiver was running back Charcandrick West, who caught 20 passes for 214 yards and a touchdown. Wilson struggled as the #2 receiver, finishing 75th out of 121 eligible wide receivers on Pro Football Focus, but #3 and #4 receivers Jason Avant and Chris Conley were even worse, finishing 81st and 87th respectively on 345 and 369 snaps respectively.

Wilson flashed on 223 snaps as an undrafted rookie in 2014, but proved to be overstretched as a starting receiver last season. The 5-9 200 pounder does his best work on the slot and the Chiefs would probably prefer him as the 3rd receiver, but they might not have much of a choice. They drafted Conley in the 3rd round last year, with the intention of him becoming a starting receiver, but he struggled in limited action as a rookie, so his starting days could be at least another year off. Still, he’s the heavy favorite for the #3 receiver job, as the Chiefs really lack depth at the wide receiver position. Raw 5th round rookie Tyreke Hill is probably the #4 receiver going into week 1.

The Chiefs also have depth problems at tight end, where Demetrius Harris struggled in his first since as the #2 tight end, catching just 7 passes and grading out 60th out of 67 eligible tight ends on 339 snaps. Prior to last season, Harris, a 2013 undrafted free agent, had played just 70 career snaps, so the odds of him becoming significantly better in his 2nd year in the role are slim. The Chiefs’ receiving corps is a lot better than it was two years ago thanks to Kelce and Maclin, but plenty of depth issues remain.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Arguably the most surprising part of the Chiefs’ turnaround last season is they did it despite losing Jamaal Charles to a torn ACL week 5. Obviously their schedule got easier from that point on, but the fact remains that the Chiefs were able to run the ball effectively last season even without Jamaal Charles, finishing the year 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry with 4.69. Charles’ average, for comparison, was 5.13. Charles ran better, faced tougher competition in his 5 games, and added 21 catches for 177 yards and a touchdown in his 5 games, but last season proved that the Chiefs have tremendous depth at the running back position.

Because of that and the fact that Charles is going into his age 30 season, coming off of the 2nd torn ACL of his career, there was some talk that the Chiefs would try to trade Charles this off-season. His 2016 salary (6 million) is pretty reasonable, so they ultimately decided to keep the running back whose 5.47 career yards per carry average is still the best all-time by a running back in the modern era. Charles will go back into the starting lineup, but should see much more frequent breaks, especially early in the season, given his age, injury history, and the fact that the Chiefs know they can trust their other running backs in critical situations too. Charles had 320 touches in 2012, 329 touches in 2013, and was on a 294 touch pace last season (he dealt with lingering injuries in 2014 that held him to 246 touches). Those 300+ touch seasons are likely a thing of the past for him.

However, he still could be an effective weapon for the Chiefs on around 250 touches (200 carries and 50 receptions). He also still should play the vast majority of the passing down snaps, as he’s easily their 3rd best receiver behind Maclin and Kelce, catching 131 passes in 35 games in 3 years since Andy Reid came to town; that might have been where he was most missed last season. Excluding an injury shortened 2011 season in which he did not play enough snaps to qualify, Charles has graded out 4th, 1st, 16th, 2nd, and 13th on Pro Football Focus among running backs in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2013, and 2014 respectively and then finished last season 17th on 267 snaps before the injury. There are serious questions about his effectiveness going forward given his age and injury history, but Charles at 80%-90% is still a lot better than most backs.

Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware will compete for the backup job behind Charles. West had more carries, but turned those 160 carries into just 634 yards (3.96 YPC) and 4 touchdowns. Ware, meanwhile, came on down the stretch and rushed for 403 yards and 6 touchdowns on 72 carries (5.60 YPC). Ware also finished higher on Pro Football Focus, grading out 21st while West finished 41st. The two running backs combined for just 3 career carries prior to last season, so they’re last season is really all we have to evaluate them on.

Ware was easily the better player and should be considered the heavy favorite to backup on Charles, especially on early downs as Ware does struggle as a pass catcher. West should also have a role, but it’ll be a smaller one. Even though they finished last season 3rd in the NFL in yards per carry, they could be even better on the ground this season with Charles back, though it’s worth noting Ware and West are both one-year wonders. They still have arguably the league’s best group of running backs though.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Part of the reason why the Chiefs weren’t able to really address their receiving corps this off-season is they had a lot of pending free agents, a lot of needs to fill, and lost their 3rd round pick for having illegal communication with Jeremy Maclin when he was an Eagle, before he signed with the Chiefs. The Chiefs didn’t really lose much at any of the offensive skill positions, but they did have some losses on the offensive line and they had 5 defensive starters set to hit free agency (which I’ll get into later).

The three players the Chiefs lost on the offensive line this season are offensive tackle Donald Stephenson (signed with the Broncos), guard Jeff Allen (signed with the Texans), and guard Ben Grubbs (still unsigned, but expected to retire ahead of his age 32 season, after suffering a significant neck injury down the stretch last season). Those 3 played 555, 429, and 463 snaps respectively last season. The Stephenson loss doesn’t really hurt, as he really struggled last season, but Grubbs and Allen were both starting caliber players when in the lineup. Allen was actually Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked guard last season, landing him a 4-year, 28 million dollar deal from the Texans.

Fortunately, the Chiefs add a free agent offensive lineman who is better than any of those three, signing Mitchell Schwartz to a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal. He was the only real external free agent signing the Chiefs made, but he’ll be very valuable for them. He’s only ever played right tackle, but he’s made all 64 starts in 4 years in the league, since getting drafted in the 2nd round in the Browns in 2012, and has graded out 19th, 30th, 11th, and 6th respectively among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in those 4 seasons respectively. Arguably the best right tackle in the NFL, Schwartz is immediately the Chiefs’ best offensive lineman.

Eric Fisher remains as the left tackle. Fisher was the #1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, but looked like a massive bust through his first 2 seasons in the league, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked offensive tackle out of 76 eligible in 2013 at right tackle and then 72nd out of 84 eligible in 2014 at left tackle. Fisher was better in 2015, though still not the player the Chiefs were expecting he’d be by now when they took him first overall. He graded out slightly above average and finished 36th among offensive tackles.

Given that they gave him a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension with 2 years left on his rookie deal this off-season, the Chiefs will obviously be hoping he takes another leap forward in 2016, but I’m skeptical. They should be happy if he plays competently again, given how bad he was to start his career. That contract figures to be an overpay, as he’s now the 3rd highest paid offensive tackle in the NFL in terms of average annual salary. With 2 years left on his rookie deal, there was no urgency for the move and the Chiefs are paying for something he’s never proven.

Along with Fisher, the Chiefs have another capable young starting offensive lineman at center, where 2015 2nd round pick Mitch Morse started 15 games as a rookie last season. The University of Missouri product transitioned very smoothly from his collegiate position of offensive tackle inside to center, grading out above average and finishing the season 15th among centers on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 2nd year in the league in 2016, he could be even better and he has a promising future.

The big issue upfront for the Chiefs is guard, where they are really thin after losing Allen and Grubbs. Laurent Duvernay-Tardif remains as the starter at right guard, where he made 13 starts last season, but he didn’t play well, grading out 62nd among 81 eligible guards. The Chiefs’ coaching staff is really high on him, but he’s yet to show it in game action, not playing a snap as a 6th round rookie in 2014, and then struggled in his first year as a starter in 2015. With no other real option at the position, LDT is locked in here.

Left guard is the only starting job up for grabs on the Chiefs offensive line, as Zach Fulton, who struggled on 406 snaps last season, will compete with 4th round rookie Parker Ehinger for the starting job. Fulton is the favorite, but the fact that Ehinger has a chance to win the job as a 4th round rookie tells you a lot about Fulton and his abilities. The 2014 6th round pick has made 22 starts in 2 years in the league, though largely out of desperation, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 64th ranked guard out of 78 eligible in 2014 and, though he was better in 2015, it wasn’t by much, as he still graded out below average overall. Whoever wins this starting job, left guard should be a position of weakness. Depth on the offensive line is also a big concern.

Adding Schwartz does help in a big way and the Chiefs should have Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin, and Travis Kelce all healthy and playing together next season, something they have never really had for an extended period of time. Those four players should all be in my top-200 players for 2016 (which will be released at the end of the off-season) and, despite major holes in the receiving corps and at guard, the talent is there for this offense to be better in 2016, even if they’re still far from dominant on that side of the ball.

Grade: C+

Defensive Line

I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs had 5 defensive starters who were free agents this off-season. They didn’t really add any free agents to their defense, but the Chiefs did a good job keeping their talent, re-signing 4 of those 5 players, including defensive lineman Jaye Howard, who they kept on a 2-year, 10 million dollar deal. That’s a good value for him. The 6-3 301 pounder can play anywhere on the Chiefs’ 3-man defensive line, including nose tackle. After not playing much in his first 2 seasons in the league, Howard a 2012 4th round pick by the Seahawks, has played 449 and 752 snaps in 2014 and 2015 respectively, grading out above average in both seasons, including 24th among interior defenders on Pro Football Focus in 2015. A blossoming young defensive lineman, I expected him to be a much hotter commodity on the open market.

Dontari Poe and Allen Bailey also remain as the other two starters on this defensive line. Despite having off-season back surgery, Poe missed just 1 game with injury last season (just his 2nd missed game in 4 years in the NFL) and led the Chiefs defensive line in snaps for the 4th straight year, since the Chiefs drafted him 11th overall in 2012. He led the defensive line with 757 in 2012, 1004 in 2013, 966 in 2014, and then 759 last season. The 6-3 347 pounder isn’t a dominant defensive lineman, but his versatility, durability, and stamina are very uncommon for a player of his size. He’s also a valuable player who the Chiefs don’t want take off the field very often, grading out above average in each of the last 3 seasons, finishing 11th among defensive tackles in 2013, 39th among defensive tackles in 2014, and then 32nd among interior defenders last season.

Bailey was the worst of the 3 starters, but he certainly wasn’t bad, finishing 51st among interior defenders and grading out above average. Bailey flashed as a reserve early in his career, grading out above average in 2 of 3 seasons from 2011-2013, after going in the 3rd round in 2011, but struggled in his first season as a starter in 2014, grading out 33rd out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. Bailey was improved in his 2nd year as a starter though and goes into 2016 as a capable starting defensive end.

While the Chiefs re-signed Howard, they did lose Mike DeVito. DeVito wasn’t one of those aforementioned 5 starters, but he was a valuable reserve who graded out above average on 293 snaps last season. He retired this off-season, ahead of his age 32 season. Still, Howard was obviously more important to keep and the Chiefs used a 2nd round by on Chris Jones out of Mississippi State to replace DeVito. He’ll provide depth across the defensive line as a rookie at 6-6 310 and could be a long-term replacement for Poe, if the Chiefs are unable to re-sign him long-term. Poe will be a free agent next off-season. Jones was a borderline first round prospect in a loaded defensive tackle class so it was a good pick by the Chiefs. For now, Poe is still here on a defensive line that has 3 talented starters and a promising rookie reserve.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

I mentioned earlier that the Chiefs only lost one defensive starter through free agency. However, they did suffer a potentially huge loss from an injury, as outside linebacker Justin Houston’s status for the 2016 season is very much up in the air after a partially torn ACL suffered this off-season. This injury was suffered in February and he was given a 6-12 month timeframe, which means he could be back just in time for week 1, or miss the entire season; it’s really up in the air, which is very bad news for the Chiefs.

When healthy, Houston is one of the best defensive players in the NFL. A 2011 3rd round pick, Houston graded out 13th, 4th, 1st, 1st among 3-4 outside linebackers on Pro Football Focus from 2011-2014 respectively and then finished last season 2nd at the position. Injuries are the only thing that’s ever slowed him down, as he’s missed 10 games with injury over the past 3 season and figures to miss at least a few more this season. His status will definitely be one to monitor, but the smart money is probably on him going on the PUP list and missing at least the first 6 weeks of the season.

Dee Ford is the obvious replacement for Houston, as he started the final 5 games of the season in Houston’s absence last season, when Houston was out with a knee injury. Houston returned for the playoffs, but was nowhere near 100% and then needed that surgery this off-season, so it’ll be back to Ford. Ford was drafted in the first round in 2014, a surprising pick because the Chiefs didn’t have an immediate need for an edge rusher, but it made some sense with Tamba Hali getting up there in age. The Chiefs re-signed Hali this off-season because he’s still going strong and because of Houston’s health, but Ford should still get an opportunity to start games in his 3rd year in the league. Thus far, his career has been disappointing, as he played just 122 snaps as a rookie and then finished last season 104th among 110 eligible edge defenders on 480 snaps.

As I mentioned, the Chiefs brought back Tamba Hali (one of those aforementioned 5 starters) this off-season. He’ll start opposite Ford until Houston returns and will need to continue playing at a high level. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season since switching to 3-4 outside linebacker in 2009, including 13th among 3-4 outside linebackers in 2014 and 4th among 3-4 outside linebackers last season, but is heading into his age 33 season, so he’s far from a guarantee to continue playing at a high level. With Hali aging and Houston injured, the Chiefs will need a breakout year from Ford, but they are unlikely to get it, as Ford hasn’t shown himself to be anything more than a #3 outside linebacker thus far in his career.

Along with Tamba Hali, the Chiefs also re-signed middle linebacker Derrick Johnson this off-season. Like Hali, Johnson is an aging player who is still playing at a high level. Despite missing all of 2014 with a torn achilles, Johnson still played at a high level in 2015, playing every down and finishing 3rd among middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. That’s been par for the course for him whenever he’s been healthy, as he was a top-5 middle linebacker on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2010-2013. Aside from 2014’s torn achilles, Johnson has missed just 1 game with injury over the past 6 seasons. He’s going into his age 34 season, so, like with Hali, the end could be near, but the Chiefs were smart to lock him up on a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal.

Josh Mauga was the other starting middle linebacker last season and played well against the run, but he’s out for the season with an injury, which pushes 2nd year player Ramik Wilson into the starting lineup. Wilson struggled on 128 snaps as a 4th rookie and doesn’t seem ready for a starting job, but the Chiefs frequently play a 3rd safety down around the line of scrimmage as a essentially 2nd linebacker in sub packages, so Wilson will only see about half the snaps as purely a two-down base package player. It’s still a strong linebacker group, but one whose performance relies heavily on Justin Houston being healthy and aging linebackers Hali and Johnson keeping up a high level of performance.

Grade: B+

Secondary

I mentioned the Chiefs frequently use 3 safeties (along with 3 cornerbacks) in sub packages against 3-wide receiver sets. In this scenario, it was frequently Husain Abdullah, the 3rd safety, playing closer to the line of scrimmage as a linebacker. However, Abdullah retired this off-season, ahead of what would have been his age 31 season. Like DeVito, the Chiefs will miss Abdullah in certain situations. Abdullah was Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked safety on 434 snaps last season. 2014 undrafted free agent Daniel Sorenson is expected to replace him. The 6-2 207 pounder as adequate size, but is completely unproven and struggled on 240 snaps last season.

Eric Berry and Ron Parker remain as the top-2 safeties, after both made all 16 starts last season. Berry was a free agent this off-season, but the Chiefs kept him on the franchise tag. It’s a borderline miracle that Berry made all 16 starts last season, after his 2014 season was cut short by a cancer diagnosis in November of 2014. Berry was healthy and ready for training camp by July of 2015 and had arguably the best season of his career last season, finishing 6th among safeties on Pro Football Focus and winning the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. He was well worth the franchise tag, though it’s concerning that he did not report until late August. We’ll see how his durability is early in the season. He’s not a one year wonder, as he finished 3rd among safeties in 2013, but he’s been pretty inconsistent in his career.

Parker, meanwhile, also had the best season of his career, after struggling in the first season of significant action in his career in 2014. Parker actually graded out above average in 2015 (40th overall among safeties) and should continue to be a capable starting defensive back in 2016. He played both safety and cornerback last season, though it’s unclear if he will continue doing that next season, as the Chiefs also lost #4 safety Tyvon Branch to free agency this off-season. Branch is a capable situational player who played 428 snaps last season.

Losing Abdullah, Branch, and DeVito this off-season, along with Houston’s injury really hurts this defense. On top of that, the Chiefs lost starting cornerback Sean Smith to the Raiders, easily their biggest off-season loss, as he’s been one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL over the past two seasons. For that reason, Parker may continue playing slot cornerback in sub packages, with a 4th safety like Jamell Fleming coming on the field. Fleming is an underwhelming option though, as he’s never played well throughout his entire career, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2012 by the Cardinals; he struggled mightily on 157 snaps last season and is no lock to even make the final roster.

Most likely, Parker will be a full-time safety in 2016 and the Chiefs well need to find capable cornerbacks. Marcus Peters is locked into one starting spot, after grading out slightly above average in 16 starts as a rookie. He tied for the league lead with 8 interceptions last season and was named Defensive Rookie of the Year, but that was largely because he got thrown on so often opposite Smith. He also gave up his fair share of big plays, which the interception number doesn’t show. Still, it was a strong rookie year and, anyway you look at it, he has a bright future and has a good chance to be better in 2016.

Everything else after that is completely up for grabs. Phillip Gaines, Steven Nelson, Kei’Varae Russell, Kenneth Acker, and Eric Murray will compete for playing time and roster spots. Gaines is probably the favorite for the starting job, as he made 3 starts in 3 games last season, before going down for the year with a torn ACL. He’s certainly not locked into the starting job though, as the 2014 3rd round pick is coming off of a major injury and has only played 545 snaps in 2 years in the NFL.

Acker also has a little bit of experience, making 13 starts in 2015 with the 49ers in the first significant action of his career, but finished 70th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks, which got him traded to the Chiefs for a late round pick in mid-August. He’s not a lock for the final roster. Gaines and Acker have far more experience than the other 3 though, as Nelson played just 53 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2015, while Russell and Murray are both rookies, drafted in the 3rd and 4th round respectively. It’s a position of serious concern for the Chiefs and a much thinner secondary overall than they’re used to.

Grade: B-

Conclusion

The Chiefs offense could be a little better this season, with Jamaal Charles coming back healthy and Mitchell Schwartz coming in, but they still have major issues at guard and at wide receiver. On the other side of the ball, a once solid defense lost a good amount of talent this off-season, including possibly Justin Houston for the season. One of the best defensive players in the league when healthy, that would be an obvious loss for this team. Cornerback Sean Smith is another obvious loss and leaves them very thin at that position as well. They’ll be in the mix for a playoff spot again in the wide open AFC, but may end up falling short.

Prediction: 8-8 3rd in AFC West

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots: 2015 AFC Divisional Pick

stevenlourie 2015 Divisional Round NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)

This one’s tough. The Patriots should be able to cover this 5 point spread at home against the Chiefs. The Chiefs have famously won 11 straight games since a 1-5 start, but who did they beat over that time period? Buffalo? Denver when Manning had a bad foot? Houston? Meanwhile, during their 1-5 start, they lost to the likes of Denver (with a healthier Manning), Green Bay, Cincinnati, Minnesota, all playoff teams. They’re a solid team and rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, but I don’t really like their chances of winning a road playoff game against a tough team and making a deep run, especially since teams are 11-21 ATS in the playoffs on a winning streak of 7 or more, since 2001.

Their toughest game strength of schedule wise that they won might have been last week in Houston. The final score was 30-0, but that’s a little misleading, as the Chiefs didn’t have an offensive touchdown until JJ Watt got hurt in the 3rd quarter. That win was propelled by a kickoff return touchdown and a +4 turnover margin, two things they won’t be able to count on this week, against an opponent that ended up being pretty weak without the superstar Watt. Kansas City’s offense really seemed to miss talented rookie center Mitch Morse, who will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion this week. Possibly joining him on the sideline this week are top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, who hurt his ankle last week, and outside linebacker Justin Houston, a defensive standout who tweaked a knee injury last week that caused him to miss the previous 5 games.

The Patriots, meanwhile, are getting way healthier this week. They’ve played pretty badly in recent weeks, especially struggling on the offensive side of the ball, moving the chains at a 65.42% rate in the past 7 games, as opposed to 79.81% in the first 9 games of the season. That timeline coincides with when top wide receiver Julian Edelman went down with a broken foot, but he makes his return this week after more than 2 months.

It wasn’t just Julian Edelman getting hurt, as Edelman, running back Dion Lewis, running back LeGarrette Blount, wide receiver Danny Amendola, tight end Rob Gronkowski, tight end Scott Chandler, guard Josh Kline, offensive tackle Nate Solder, offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer, defensive tackle Dominique Easley, defensive end Chandler Jones, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, linebacker Jamie Collins, safety Devin McCourty, and safety Patrick Chung all combined to miss 45 full games over that 7 game stretch (33 offensive, 12 defensive). Amendola, Chandler, Kline, Gronkowski, Collins, McCourty, and Chung all played week 17, while Vollmer, Jones, and Hightower all return this week, along with Edelman. Blount, Lewis, Solder, and Easley are all out for the season, but every team has some amount of injuries right now. They’re in pretty good shape.

However, it’s tough to be too confident in them because we just haven’t seen it from them in a while. It’s a projection that they’re going to be a lot better this week, a good one, but it’s tough to know that everything is just going to go back to the way it was a couple months ago. I also don’t like the feel around this one, with Chandler Jones possibly facing an internal punishment for an off-the-field issue and Rob Gronkowski apparently being more questionable than normal questionable and reportedly getting a pain injection on Thursday in the right knee he injured earlier this season. Add in the fact that home teams in the divisional round are just 8-16 ATS since 2001 against a team that is coming off of a road win in the wild card round and that close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, and it becomes very tough to be too confident in New England covering as 5 point favorites, though they are my pick.

New England Patriots 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17

Pick against the spread: New England -5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2015 AFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 NFL Wild Card Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Houston Texans (9-7)

The Chiefs are favored by 3.5 points here in Houston. It’s not hard to understand why that’s the case. The Texans are seen as a team that’s only in the playoffs by default, after winning the weak NFC South; they’ve also already lost to the Chiefs at home this season, 27-20 back in week 1.The Chiefs, meanwhile, are seen as a legitimate team, coming into the playoffs with an 11-5 record and a 10 game winning streak. Despite the fact that the Chiefs are favored by more than a field goal on the road, when close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, the public is still all over Kansas City.

They seem to be falling into the odds makers’ trap, as they often do. I think the Texans are actually the better team here. Like the Chiefs, they survived a rough start and got better as the season went on, starting 2-5 and winning 7 of their next 9 games. Like the Chiefs, they’ve gotten better as the season has gone on, largely because quarterback Brian Hoyer has stabilized the quarterback position, and they’ve quietly become a legitimately tough team to face in the playoffs. A strong defense has led them to a 7th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential and they’re a better offense with Brian Hoyer, as they’ve moved the chains at a 70.11% rate in the 11 games Hoyer has led them in pass attempts, as opposed to 68.57% in their other 5 games. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, which is impressive, but this line is way off.

It’s true that the Chiefs did win 27-20 in Houston earlier this year, but I think the public has gotten too caught up in that. Teams are 29-14 ATS since 1989 in the playoffs in a same season, same site, non-divisional rematch against a team that beat them previously. The Chiefs’ 10 game winning streak is another thing the public seems to have gotten too caught up in, as teams are 10-21 ATS in the playoffs on a 7+ game winning streak, including 6-17 ATS as favorites. The Chiefs are overrated and I’ll gladly take the points. The Texans have some key injuries to left tackle Duane Brown and outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney, while the Chiefs get outside linebacker Justin Houston back from a 5 game absence, but the Chiefs are missing their other starting outside linebacker Tamba Hali and center Mitch Morse is expected to join him. There’s still enough here to make Houston my top pick this week.

Houston Texans 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Houston +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (7-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-5)

This is another one I don’t have a good feel for. The Chiefs are favored by a touchdown, which I think is a little much, considering the Chiefs rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Raiders rank 15th. The Chiefs could also be missing outside linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, huge parts of their defense, for the 5th and 2nd straight game respectively. It’s not enough for me to have any sort of confidence in Oakland, but they’re my pick here.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Oakland +7

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Browns, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-5)

I’m really torn on this one. On one hand, the Chiefs are in a much better spot than the Browns. While the Chiefs close their season out with a home game against the Raiders, a game in which they’re expected to be 7 point favorites, according to the early line, the Browns have to turn around and host the Steelers, against whom they’re expected to be 9.5 point underdogs. Favorites of 6+ are 83-43 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win by a big margin when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

On the other side, underdogs of 6+ are 42-70 ATS since 2012 before being 6+ underdogs again, for the opposite reasons. Combining the two, favorites of 6+ are 56-34 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6+ again, when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs again. On top of that, teams are 43-90 ATS before being 7+point home underdogs since 2008, as the Browns will be next week. With a huge upcoming home game against a tough divisional rival, the Browns could really have a hard time covering against a Chiefs team that finishes up their season with a relatively easy home game.

On the other hand, the Browns are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 128-94 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 223-224 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 320-435 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.70 points per game.

On top of that, we’re getting a little bit of line value with the Browns. The Browns are obviously not a good team, ranking 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Chiefs rank 9th and I don’t think are quite good enough to be laying double digits here, given how banged up they are at outside linebacker. Justin Houston will miss his 4th straight game and, while 2014 1st round pick Dee Ford has been solid in his absence, he’s obviously not as good as Houston, who was once again playing at an All-Pro level prior to going down. On the other side, Tamba Hali may miss this game with a broken thumb and, even if he does play, he won’t be at 100%. Houston and Hali are both huge parts of this defense.

The Browns have significant injuries at guard, as Joel Bitonio will miss his 5th game in the last 6 games and John Greco will miss his first of the season. Both of those players were big parts of a strong offensive line, especially in pass protection, and are out for the season. However, Johnny Manziel is playing the best football of any Browns quarterback this season, as they’ve moved the chains at a 71.01% rate in his 5 starts, as opposed to 67.86% in their other 9 games.

He’s been especially impressive in the past two weeks, since regaining the starting job, following a demotion for an off-the-field issue. Because of that, the Browns almost covered in Seattle in a very similar situation last week, with the Seahawks having another easy game on deck and the Browns having this tough game on deck. We’ll see if Manziel’s solid play continues and if the 2014 1st round pick is impressive enough to stay in Cleveland as the starter into 2016. With the public all over the Chiefs, I’m going with the Browns, but if the line dips under 10, I’d change my mind. It’s that close. It’s a no confidence pick either way.

Kansas City Chiefs 23 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +10.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) at Baltimore Ravens (5-8)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, offensive tackle Eugene Monroe, quarterback Joe Flacco, and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury.

As a result, they are 5-8, rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests. In the 3 games since losing Flacco and Forsett, they’ve moved the chains at a 64.77% rate, as opposed to 68.95% in their previous 10 games. Matt Schaub will start for the Ravens this week, after a one week absence with his own injury. He’ll be an upgrade over Jimmy Clausen, who started last week, but not by much and talented tight end Crockett Gillmore now could be out for the season with a back injury. Even if he’s not, he’ll miss his 2nd straight game with injury this week, leaving Schaub with little talent around him on offense, not exactly a recipe for success. The Ravens’ defense is capable, but this is arguably the least talented offense in the NFL right now.

Still, this line does seem high at 6.5, in favor of the visiting Chiefs. The Chiefs rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential and are missing their top defensive player, Justin Houston, with injury. 2014 1st round pick Dee Ford has played well over the past 2 games in his absence, but Houston is borderline impossible to replace so his absence is definitely still notable. The Ravens are also in a solid spot, as teams are 76-52 ATS as home underdogs off of a home loss, since 2002.

However, the Chiefs are in a great spot, hosting the lowly Browns next week, against whom they’re expected to be favored by 11.5 points, while the Ravens host the Steelers. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites before being favored again, if their opponent will be underdogs again the following week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period. Going further, favorites of 6+ are 81-43 ATS before being favored by 6+ points again, since 2012, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have an upcoming distraction. I could go either way on this one, but I’ll take the Chiefs as long as the line is under a touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Baltimore Ravens 10

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -6.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]