Quarterback

In the first five seasons of Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the Chiefs’ starting quarterback from 2018-2022, the Chiefs finished in the top-3 in offensive DVOA in all five seasons. In 2023, the Chiefs fell to 8th in DVOA and Mahomes had the lowest QB rating of his career at 92.6, completing 67.2% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, after completing 66.4% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 48 interceptions in his first five seasons in the league (106.0 QB rating). 

Despite that, the Chiefs still won the Super Bowl, their 2nd in a row and their 3rd in Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter. While their offense wasn’t quite as good as it had been in the past, their defense was the best it had been in Mahomes’ tenure, ranking 7th in defensive DVOA, giving the Chiefs a well balanced team that was one of the best in the league in the regular season and that was capable of going all the way once the post-season began.

Mahomes wasn’t as good statistically as he had been in the past, but that wasn’t really his fault, nor was the Chiefs’ relative lack of offensive success. Mahomes has a 85.1 PFF grade, his 4th highest grade of his six seasons as a starter and his 6th straight season above 80, dating back to his first season as a starter in 2018. The problem was that Mahomes’ offensive supporting cast was the worst he’s had in his tenure as a starter, which I’ll get into later. With Mahomes still only in his age 29 season, I would expect him to continue being one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

Mahomes has only missed two games due to injury in his career, but if he were to miss time, the Chiefs would turn to Carson Wentz, who they added this off-season. Wentz would obviously be a big downgrade from Mahomes, as any backup quarterback would be, but he’s probably above average as far as backups go. He has plenty of experience, with 93 starts in 8 seasons in the league, and he has a decent 89.4 QB rating across those starts, completing 62.7% of his passes for an average of 6.74 YPA, 153 touchdowns, and 67 interceptions. With Mahomes leading the way, this is one of, if not the best quarterback room in the NFL.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

The biggest problem around Mahomes last season was his receiving corps. Of the Chiefs’ top-5 wide receivers in terms of snaps played, four of them finished in the bottom half of wide receivers on PFF. The one exception was rookie Rashee Rice, a 2023 2nd round pick. Rice’s overall receiving numbers (79/938/7) don’t look that great, but he was a part-time player earlier in the season. From week 6 on, he had a 62/765/5 slash line in 11 games, which extrapolates to 96/1182/7 over a 17-game stretch. He also averaged 2.39 yards per route run, 10th among eligible wide receivers, and he received a 85.0 PFF grade, 13th among eligible wide receivers. 

Going into his second season in the league, Rice should have a lot of promise, but he’s facing an extended suspension for off-the-field issues from this off-season, which would be a big blow to this offense. Fortunately, the Chiefs did make improving their receiving corps a priority this off-season, signing Marquise Brown to a 1-year, 7 million dollar deal in free agency and using their first round pick on Xavier Worthy. When Rice is on the field, Brown and Worthy will play in three wide receiver sets with him and, if he’s not available, they should help somewhat make up for Rice’s absence. It’s also possible that Rice’ suspension doesn’t start until the 2025 season, as the league lets the legal process play out.

Marquise Brown was a first round pick in 2019 by the Ravens and then was traded to the Cardinals for a first round pick following the 2021 season. Brown was better with the Ravens, averaging 1.69 yards per route run over his three seasons with the team, surpassing 1000 yards in 2021, before falling to 1.35 yards per route run with the Cardinals over the past two seasons, but he had much worse quarterback play in Arizona and is a good bet to bounce back now that he’s in Kansas City with Mahomes. He’s also only in his age 27 season, so he should be in the prime of his career. Worthy, meanwhile, profiles as a potential long-term #1 receiver and, even if he has growing pains as a rookie, he should be a useful contributor for them in a complementary role.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling wasn’t brought back this off-season, but he won’t be missed after a 2023 season in which he had just a 21/315/1 slash line, a 0.71 yards per route run average, and ranked 100th among 102 eligible wide receivers in PFF grade. The Chiefs did bring back the rest of their wide receivers from a year ago and, while none of them were good in significant roles last season, the Chiefs won’t need them for more than depth this season, though one would have to play significant snaps for a period of time if Rice misses time due to his suspension. 

Skyy Moore has the most upside of their reserve options, as he was a 2nd round pick in 2022, but he’s averaged just 1.08 yards per route run with slash lines of 22/250/0 and 21/244/1 in two seasons in the league. He’s only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2024, but he’s still best as a reserve option. Kadarius Toney also has upside, as a 2021 1st round pick with a career 1.76 yards per route run average, but he’s been limited to snap counts of 302, 144, and 229 in three seasons in the league due to injuries and inconsistent performance and he was traded from the Giants to the Chiefs midway through his second season in the league for a 3rd round pick after they gave up on his upside. Still only in his age 25 season, the potential is there, but he’s also best as a reserve option.

Justin Watson is a veteran who was second among Chiefs wide receivers in receiving yardage last season, but he only had a 27/460/3 slash line and a 1.25 yards per route run average, both of which were actually career bests for the 6-year veteran. Now in his age 29 season, it’s highly unlikely the 2018 5th round pick has any untapped upside. The Chiefs also have Mecole Hardman, who returned to the team midway through the season after a very disappointing half season with the Jets. He has a decent 1.62 yards per route run average in five seasons in the league since being selected by the Chiefs in the 2nd round in 2019, but he only has 40 catches over the past two seasons and played just 124 snaps in 6 regular season games after returning to the team during last season. He’ll have to compete for a roster spot with the rest of the Chiefs reserve options.

The Chiefs also still have tight end Travis Kelce, who somewhat made up for the Chiefs’ lack of wide receiver depth, leading the team with a 93/984/5 slash line and averaging 1.92 yards per route run, second on the team behind Rashee Rice. That was a down year by Kelce’s standards though, as he had surpassed 1000 yards receiving in each of his previous seven seasons, while averaging 2.19 yards per route run over that stretch. Now going into his age 35 season, age seems to be catching up with Kelce somewhat, but, barring a massive dropoff, the future Hall of Famer should remain one of the best tight ends in the league again in 2024.

Kelce will likely continue being backed up by Noah Gray, a 2021 5th round pick who has seen snap counts of 599 and 595 over the past two seasons, but he’s a mediocre player who has averaged just 0.88 yards per route run in his career and the Chiefs added Jared Wiley in the 4th round of this year’s draft to give them another long-term option. Wiley will probably spend his rookie year as the third tight end, but could work his way into more playing time as the year goes on. The Chiefs added Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown to give themselves much needed depth in the receiving corps and Rashee Rice could have a big second season in the league if he is able to play the whole season, but his legal issues cloud his outlook, while tight end Travis Kelce could continue declining, given his age.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

The Chiefs’ offensive line was part of the problem in 2023, particularly the tackle position. In 2022, the Chiefs had a solid tackle duo of Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie, but both left as free agents and the Chiefs replaced them with Donovan Smith and Jawaan Taylor, who both struggled with PFF grades of 55.4 and 51.6 respectively. The left tackle Smith wasn’t brought back this off-season and will either be replaced by 2023 3rd round pick Wanya Morris, who was underwhelming in 55.6 snaps as a rookie, or by this year’s 2nd round pick Kingsley Suamataia. It’s possible neither one is an upgrade on Smith, but both at least have more upside.

Unfortunately, the Chiefs are stuck with Jawaan Taylor at right tackle, as he’s guaranteed 20 million in the 2nd year of a massive 4-year, 80 million dollar deal the Chiefs gave him last off-season. Taylor was never worth that kind of money, receiving grades of 63.7, 56.5, 60.4, and 58.7 in four seasons with the Jaguars, who made him a 2nd round pick in 2019, but last year was a career worst year for him, so he could be a little bit better in 2024, if only by default. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he got benched mid-season if he doesn’t turn it around though, despite his salary, either for whoever loses the left tackle battle, or for backup right tackle Lucas Niang, a 2021 3rd round pick who showed promise with a 64.6 grade across 524 snaps (9 starts) as a rookie, but who has since played just 69 mediocre snaps in the past two seasons.

The interior of this offensive line is still good though, as the trio of Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith have been together for three seasons and have all been above average during that stretch. Humphrey and Smith were both draft picks in 2021, going in the 2nd round and 6th round respectively, while Thuney was added in free agency that off-season on a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal. Humphrey is actually coming off of a down year with a 78.2 PFF grade, as compared to 91.4 and 90.0 in his first two seasons in the league. He has a good chance to bounce back in 2024 though and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the better centers in the league, still only in his age 25 season. 

Smith isn’t quite as good, but he’s still had PFF grades of 72.3, 71.5, and 72.2 over the past three seasons respectively and should continue playing around that level, or possibly even better, still only in his age 25 season in 2024. Thuney, meanwhile, has finished above 70 on PFF in seven straight seasons, though he’s now going into his age 32 season and could start to decline. He should remain an above average starter even if he does decline, but his best days could be behind him at this point. 

The trio of Humphrey, Smith, and Thuney have missed a combined three games over the past three seasons, none of which were last season, so depth hasn’t really been needed behind them, but the Chiefs would be in trouble if any of them missed an extended period of time, as their top interior reserve options are 5th round rookie Hunter Nourzad, 7th round rookie CJ Hanson, and 2022 undrafted free agent Mike Caliendo, who struggled mightily in the first 64 snaps of his career last season. The Chiefs should still have a strong interior of their offensive line, possibly even better than a year ago if Creed Humphrey can bounce back to his 2021-2022 form, but the tackle position is likely to remain a position of weakness, barring breakout seasons from young players, and depth is a concern.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

While the Chiefs’ wide receivers and offensive tackles were not as good in 2023 as they had been in the past, running back Isiah Pacheco took a step forward. His YPC average dropped from 4.88 in 2022, when he was a rookie, to 4.56 in 2023, but that was because his blocking wasn’t as good, as his yards after contact increased from 3.00 YPC to 3.04 YPC. He also saw a bigger workload, going from 170 carries to 205 carries, and he had much a higher broken tackle rate, with 37 broken tackles, as compared to just 20 in 2022. Overall, he went from a 74.6 PFF grade as a rookie to a 82.3 PFF grade in 2023.

Pacheco also saw a big increase in passing game work, going from a 13/130/0 slash line in 2022 to a 44/244/2 slash line in 2023, although his yards per route run average was still mediocre, going from 0.88 as a rookie to 0.91 last season. Passing down specialist Jerick McKinnon, who had a 25/192/4 slash line and a 1.10 yards per route run average last season, is no longer with the team, leaving Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the only back behind Pacheco and he’ll be a pure backup, rather than a passing down specialist, so Pacheco could see even more receiving production in 2024, though he’ll probably remain inefficient in that aspect.

Edwards-Helaire was a first round pick in 2020, but has mostly been a bust, with just a 4.18 YPC average and 12 touchdowns on 441 carries in four seasons in the league, including just 3.72 YPC and 4 touchdowns on 141 carries over the past two seasons since Pacheco took his starting job, but the Chiefs did opt to bring him back as a backup this off-season on a 1-year, 1.7 million dollar deal. He won’t see a big role unless Pacheco gets hurt, but he’s their only good backup option, so he should see at least a few touches per game. Behind him, the only other Chiefs running back who isn’t an undrafted free agent with no NFL carries is Keontay Ingram, who has averaged just 2.16 YPC on 62 carries in two seasons in the league, since going in the 6th round in 2022. Pacheco is a solid starter and Edwards-Helaire isn’t a bad backup, but this is a thin backfield.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

A big reason for the Chiefs’ defensive success last season was a dominant season they got out of interior defender Chris Jones. Not only did Jones have 10.5 sacks of his own, while adding 21 sacks and a 15.6% pressure rate, ridiculous numbers for an interior pass rusher, but he also frequently drew double teams, allowing the Chiefs’ edge defenders to get frequent one-on-ones, which led to the Chiefs finishing 2nd in the NFL with 57 sacks in 2023. Jones wasn’t nearly as good against the run, but he still had an overall 84.1 PFF grade on 739 snaps.

Jones is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline, but, even if he drops off a little bit, he should remain one of the top interior defenders in the league, given that he’s starting from such a high base point. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Jones has exceeded a 70 PFF grade in all eight seasons in the league, including seven straight seasons above 80, while averaging 725 snaps per season in those seven seasons. In total, he has 75.5 sacks, 104 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 123 career games, with 67 sacks, 92 hits, and a 14.0% pressure rate in 91 games in the past six seasons. Even if he isn’t quite as good in 2023, he should continue playing at a high level and it’s possible he could avoid declining for at least another year.

The rest of the Chiefs’ interior defenders aren’t nearly as good though, as the other three interior defenders who saw significant action, Derrick Nnadi (500 snaps), Tershawn Wharton (401 snaps), and Matt Dickerson (190 snaps), all finished with grades below 60 on PFF. Wharton was at least a decent pass rusher, with a 6.7% pressure rate, but Nnadi had just a 3.8% pressure rate, Dickerson had just a 1.1% pressure rate, and none of the three played well against the run. All three of them remain on the roster in 2024 and should play similar roles.

Nnadi has been better against the run in the past, but he only has a 4.6% pressure rate in six seasons in the league and he has finished below 60 overall on PFF in three straight seasons. At best, he’ll be a capable base package player, but he could easily continue struggling like he has in recent years. Wharton has always been a decent pass rusher, with a 7.0% pressure rate in four seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2020, but he’s finished below 60 in run defense grade in all four seasons. He should remain a similar player in 2024, a decent, but unspectacular situational pass rusher who would likely struggle if forced into a bigger role. Matt Dickerson, meanwhile, is a 2018 undrafted free agent who has only played 566 mediocre snaps in six seasons in the league. Chris Jones elevates this group significantly by himself, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

To make up for their lack of depth on the interior, the Chiefs will likely use three defensive ends together frequently in sub packages, with one lined up on the interior, most likely either Mike Danna or Charles Omenihu, who both played in that capacity last season. George Karlaftis led Chiefs edge defenders with 755 snaps played and 10.5 sacks. He also had 5 hits and a 14.1% pressure rate, although he benefited significantly from Chris Jones drawing double teams on the interior and he also struggled against the run, so he finished with just a 64.0 PFF grade overall. A first round pick in 2022, Karlaftis struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 729 snaps as a rookie, but he has the upside to make his third season in the league in 2024 the best of his career thus far.

Danna was second among Chiefs edge defenders with 745 snaps played in 2023 and he had a solid 67.0 PFF grade. His pass rush productivity was underwhelming, but that’s because he lined up frequently on the interior, where it’s tougher to get to the quarterback from, and he still finished the season with 6.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.8% pressure rate, which isn’t bad considering the hybrid role he played in. A 2020 5th round pick, Danna also had a 67.4 PFF grade on 471 snaps in 2022, with 5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, when he lined up almost exclusively on the edge. Danna also had a 61.8 PFF grade on 334 snaps as a rookie and a 61.7 PFF grade on 534 snaps in 2021. He’s an unspectacular player, but he’s solid and he’s only in his age 27 season. The Chiefs kept him on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, a fair value for a useful contributor.

Charles Omenihu only played 403 snaps last season because he was limited to 11 games by suspension, but he might not play more than that in 2024, given that he is rehabbing a torn ACL suffered in the playoffs last season and might not be ready for the beginning of the season. When he returns, he’s mostly a pass rush specialist, finishing above 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all five seasons in the league, but also finishing below 60 on PFF in run defense grade in all five seasons. He’s been especially good as a pass rusher the past three seasons, exceeding 70 on PFF in pass rush grade in all three seasons, while totaling 11.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate in 43 games, despite seeing frequent action on the interior in sub packages.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah also will likely see a higher snap count in 2024, after the 2023 1st round pick only played 218 snaps as a rookie, with 61 of them coming in a meaningless week 18 game when the Chiefs’ seeding was already locked up. Anudike-Uzomah didn’t fare well in his limited action with a 52.1 PFF grade and a 7.4% pressure rate, but he has the upside to be a lot better in year two. Anudike-Uzomah seeing more action will likely come at the expense of Mike Danna’s and to a lesser extent George Karlaftis’ playing time, but when Omenihu returns all four players should rotate frequently and see significant snap counts. It’s an unspectacular group overall, but they have plenty of depth. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs lost linebacker Willie Gay in free agency this off-season, after he played 625 snaps last season, but he probably won’t be missed, for a few reasons. For one, Gay struggled with a 53.3 PFF grade in 2023. On top of that, the Chiefs also have good depth at the position, and they should get a healthier season out of Nick Bolton, who was limited to 441 snaps in 8 games last season. When Bolton is healthy, he’s their best linebacker. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Bolton flashed a lot of potential with a 69.2 PFF grade on 623 snaps as a rookie, then broke out with a 75.7 PFF grade on 1,118 snaps in an every down role in 2022, and before falling back to a 69.2 PFF grade in his injury plagued 2023 season. Still only in his age 24 season, Bolton has a lot of upside and should either bounce back in 2024 or possibly have the best season yet of his career.

Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal are the other two linebackers who will play significant snaps for the Chiefs in 2024. Tranquill had a 70.5 PFF grade across 579 snaps in 2023, playing in an every down capacity when Bolton was out. That was a career best year for him, but he also had a 66.5 PFF grade across 977 snaps with the Chargers in 2022 and he has finished above 60 on PFF in all four healthy seasons of his career, so he should be a capable every down linebacker at worst in 2024. 

Chenal, meanwhile, is a run stopping specialist who has PFF grades of 66.0 and 76.5 across snap counts of 262 and 446 since going in the third round in 2022, with 370 snaps on run plays, as opposed to 338 snaps on pass plays. He should play a similar role as the third linebacker in 2023 and he should continue being an effective role player. This is an above average linebacking corps overall, with Bolton as a high upside every down player, Tranquill as a solid starter, and Leo Chenal as a useful role player.

Grade: B+

Secondary

If the Chiefs’ defense isn’t as good this season as it was a year ago, it will be because they lost talented cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who had a 71.1 PFF grade in 16 starts last season. The Chiefs franchise tagged Sneed, but realistically could afford to keep him given all of their other long-term financial commitments, so they ended up trading him for a 3rd round pick to the Titans, who extended him on a 4-year, 76.4 million dollar deal that makes him the 6th highest paid cornerback in the league. 

The Chiefs will miss Sneed, but they have some promising options to replace him. Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams flashed potential in limited roles at cornerback last season, with a PFF grade on 66.1 snaps and a 73.0 PFF grade on 440 snaps and 321 snaps respectively, while 2023 4th round pick Chamarri Conner flashed potential with a 72.7 PFF grade on 305 snaps at safety last season and could play more cornerback in 2023. All have upside, but they all have downside as well, as Watson is a 2022 7th round pick who struggled with a 56.1 PFF grade on 604 snaps as a rookie, Williams is a 2022 4th round pick who was underwhelming with a 60.6 PFF grade on 437 snaps as a rookie, while Conner could struggle to make the position change.

Conner could also compete for a starting job at safety, where Bryan Cook and Justin Reid are penciled in as the starters, but could both be upgraded. Cook was a 2nd round pick in 2022 and was decent with a 64.3 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie and then received a 65.2 PFF grade as a starter in 2023, before his season was ended by injury after 593 snaps and 12 starts. Assuming he’s past his injury, Cook has the upside to have his best year yet in 2024, but that’s not a guarantee and it’s possible he remains only a marginal starter.

Justin Reid, meanwhile, struggled with a 57.7 PFF grade in 16 starts (981 snaps) in 2023. He’s been better in the past, but he’s also been inconsistent for most of his career, finishing above 70 on PFF in three of six seasons in the league, but also finishing below 60 in twice. He’s still only in his age 27 season and could be significantly better in 2024 than he was in 2023, but that’s not a guarantee. Both Reid and Cook have upside, but it’s also possible neither is better than they were a year ago, in which case they’d be an underwhelming starting duo.

Fortunately, the Chiefs still have Trent McDuffie, who was actually their best cornerback a year ago, ranking 7th among cornerbacks on PFF with a 82.9 grade in 16 starts. A first round pick in 2022, McDuffie also had a 73.6 grade on 683 snaps as a rookie. Still only in his age 24 season in his third season in the league in 2024, McDuffie could still have further untapped upside and, even if he doesn’t improve further this season, he should still remain one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He elevates a secondary that otherwise has upside, but a lot of downside and that should miss L’Jarius Sneed, possibly in a big way if their young cornerbacks can’t step up.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Chiefs’ offense wasn’t quite as good as it had been in the rest of the Patrick Mahomes era, as their offensive supporting cast was the worst of Mahomes’ career, but their defense was the best of Mahomes’ career and, overall, the Chiefs were still good enough to win their third Super Bowl in Mahomes’ six seasons as a starter. In 2024, their defense could take a step back, but their offensive supporting cast should be better and they still look like one of the best teams in the league and on the short list of contenders to win the Super Bowl, which would be the first three-peat in NFL history.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in AFC West

Quarterback

The Chiefs have the lowest floor of any team in the league because they have the league’s best quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who ensures they will at least have a strong offense. In Mahomes’ five seasons as the Chiefs’ starting quarterbacks, Mahomes has led the Chiefs’ offense to finishes of 1st, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, and 1st in offensive DVOA, despite changing personnel around him. Offensive performance tends to be much more consistent on a year-to-year basis than defensive performance, especially when a team has an elite quarterback like Mahomes, so the Chiefs should remain a high level offense in 2023, barring an unexpected injury to Mahomes, who has missed just two starts due to injury in his tenure as the starter.

In total, Mahomes has completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 8.10 YPA, 192 touchdowns, and 49 interceptions (105.7 QB rating), while receiving grades of 93.2, 83.6, 91.4, 77.1, and 91.3 respectively on PFF, and going 64-16 overall, with his worst season being a 12-5 finish. Still very much in his prime in his age 28 season, Mahomes should continue playing at a dominant level in 2023 and beyond and, as long as he has at least a decent roster around him, he should continue having this team in regular contention for the Super Bowl.

Mahomes’ backup will be veteran Blaine Gabbert, who was signed this off-season. Obviously any quarterback who backs up Mahomes would be an obvious downgrade if he had to play in Mahomes’ absence, but Gabbert is probably on the lower end of backups even by that standard. In his career, Gabbert has made 48 starts in 12 seasons in the league with a career QB rating of just 72.6, with just none of those starts coming in the past four seasons, in which he has thrown a total of 35 pass attempts, clearly settled into the backup quarterback stage of his career, after competing for starting jobs in earlier seasons. In his age 34 season, Gabbert is who he is at this stage of his career, a smart backup, but someone you obviously want to avoid having to play, especially when you consider who the regular starter is.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

There were a couple big changes to Mahomes’ supporting cast this off-season. At the tackle position, the Chiefs let free agents Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie walk, signing deals worth 64.092 million over 4 years with the Bengals and 24 million over 3 years with the Commanders respectively, and the Chiefs replaced with them former Buccaneers left tackle Donovan Smith on a 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and former Jaguars right tackle Jawaan Taylor on a 4-year, 80 million dollar deal. 

Overall, it seems like the Chiefs’ new tackle duo is a downgrade from the previous one. On the left side, Donovan Smith will likely be a downgrade from Orlando Brown, who finished last season with a 75.8 PFF grade in 17 starts. Smith had three straight seasons over 70 on PFF from 2019-2021, including a career best 83.3 in 2021, but that fell to 58.1 in 2022 and, while injuries had a lot to do with that, Smith is now heading into his age 30 season, so his best days should be behind him at this point, even if he does have some bounce back potential. He has a good chance to remain a solid starter if he can stay healthy, which isn’t a huge concern, as he’s missed just six games in 8 seasons in the league, but I would still expect him to be a downgrade from the incumbent Orlando Brown.

On the right side, you would think Jawaan Taylor would be a big upgrade on Andrew Wylie, considering the Chiefs gave Taylor a contract that makes him the 5th highest paid offensive tackle and the second highest paid right tackle in the league in terms of average annual salary. However, Taylor was likely overpaid on that contract, as the 2019 2nd round pick has received overall grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF in all four seasons in the league. 

Taylor has received grades of 72.0 and 76.4 in pass protection over the past two seasons respectively, but his run blocking still leaves something to be desired and he’s one of the most penalized offensive linemen in the league, with 39 penalties in 66 career games. Even if he might still have untapped upside in his age 26 season, Taylor seems unlikely to live to his contract and the incumbent Wylie, who had a 63.1 PFF grade last season, would have given them a capable starter at a much cheaper price.

The interior of this offensive line was the strength of this group a year ago, even with solid tackle play, and, with all three interior starters returning for 2023, this should remain a strength. Center Creed Humphrey and right tackle Trey Smith were added in the 2021 NFL Draft, in the 2nd and 6th round respectively. Humphrey instantly was one of the best centers in the league, receiving grades of 91.4 and 90.0 respectively from PFF over the past two seasons, and, only in his age 24 season, he seems well on his way towards being one of the best centers in the league for years to come.

Smith, meanwhile, was a steal where he was drafted and only fell because of health concerns that have not been a problem thus far, with Smith missing just one career start in two seasons in the league and showing he should have been a much higher draft pick, with PFF grades of 72.3 and 71.5 respectively. Still only in his age 24 season, Smith should remain an above average starter for years to come and may have the upside to become even better in his third season in the league in 2023.

Left guard Joe Thuney was also added during the 2021 off-season, signed to a 5-year, 80 million dollar deal to come over from the New England Patriots. A 3rd round pick in 2016, Thuney has consistently been one of the better guards in the league for most of his career, receiving PFF grades of 73.5, 75.7, 77.4, and 74.2 respectively in his final four seasons in New England and then continuing that with the Chiefs, with grades of 80.5 and 77.3 over the past two seasons respectively. His age is a concern, now in his age 31 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline noticeably in 2023, he will be declining from such a high point that he should remain at least a solid starter.

The Chiefs will probably have more injuries on the offensive line than a year ago, when their starting five offensive line missed just three starts combined, but they do have decent depth. Lucas Niang is the swing tackle and the 2020 3rd round pick showed promise with a 64.6 PFF grade in 9 starts in 2021, though that season is sandwiched in between a rookie year lost to injury and a 2022 campaign where he saw just 10 snaps, as a reserve on a very healthy offensive line. 

Guard Nick Allegretti played the most snaps of any of their reserves last season, with 286 snaps and 3 starts, and he’s been mostly decent in 12 starts since being selected in the 7th round in 2019, leading to the Chiefs retaining him as a free agent this off-season on a 1-year, 2.5825 million dollar deal to remain a reserve in Kansas City. The Chiefs also have backup center Austin Reiter, who didn’t play a snap last year behind Creed Humphrey, but who made 33 starts from 2019-2021, receiving 63.0 and 70.9 grades in 2019 and 2020 with the Chiefs prior to Humphrey’s arrival, but then falling to 46.9 in 2021 after signing with the Dolphins. The Chiefs would see a dropoff in play if any of their reserves had to see significant action, but they don’t have bad backups and their starting five is one of the best in the league.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Another big change to this offense is the loss of top wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, who finished last season with a 78/933/3 slash line on 101 targets. Smith-Schuster led a group last season that was already significant different than the year before, most notably losing top wide receiver Tyreek Hill, but also losing five of the six wide receivers who caught a pass for them in 2021, replacing them with Smith-Schuster and fellow free agent addition Marquez Valdes-Scantling, as well as 2022 2nd round pick Skyy Moore, and eventually former Giants 2021 first round pick Kadarius Toney, who they Chiefs added in a mid-season trade for a third round pick last season. The Chiefs also still had Mecole Hardman last season (25/297/4 slash line on 34 targets), their lone holdover from 2021, though he too left the team this off-season.

With Smith-Schuster and Hardman gone, the Chiefs will be hoping for more out of Moore in his second season in the league and out of Kadarius Toney in his first full season in Kansas City, after they contributed just 313 snaps and 109 snaps during the regular season last year, and the Chiefs also added veteran free agent Richie James and second round pick Rashee Rice. Along with veteran Valdes-Scantling, those aforementioned players will all compete for roles in a pretty wide open receiving corps. 

Valdes-Scantling is likely locked into a starting role, after playing 777 snaps and totaling a 42/687/2 slash line with a 1.24 yards per route run average a year ago, but the 2018 5th round pick is almost definitely not someone who is going to turn into a #1 wide receiver at this stage of his career, after averaging 1.34 yards per route run and not exceeding 700 yards receiving in any of his five seasons in the league, despite spending his whole career with Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. He’s not a terrible starter and could see a small uptick in targets this season with Smith-Schuster gone, but even Valdes-Scantling’s middling production has more to do with his quarterback play and the talent around him than anything he does.

Moore and Toney have upside and are likely penciled in as the other two starters with Valdes-Scantling in three wide receiver sets, although they come with downside as well. Moore barely played as rookie and his 1.50 yards per route run in limited action left something to be desired, considering the offense he played on, while Toney has a career 2.12 yards per route run average, but consistent injuries have limited him to just 446 snaps in 19 games in two seasons in the league. Toney seems like the better option of the two, as a former first round pick who has shown a lot of promise thus far in his career, but durability will remain a concern for him and he’s still very unproven, while Moore, despite his underwhelming rookie year, still profiles as a long-term starter as well, even if he might not show it yet in year two. 

Moore and Toney will be pushed for these jobs by the rookie Rashee Rice and the veteran free agent Richie James. Rice has a high upside long-term and has a good chance to make an immediate impact, while James playing in 3-wide receivers would likely be seen as a worst case scenario, as the veteran is a mediocre option who was mostly added for insurance and depth purposes, in an inexperienced receiving corps. James has a career 1.58 yards per route run average and had a 57/569/4 slash line with the Giants in 2022, but he’s mostly been a reserve in his career, with his best slash line prior to 2022 being a 23/394/1 slash line in 2021, and it’s unlikely that he suddenly breaks out in his 6th season in the league in 2023.

Fortunately, the Chiefs still have tight end Travis Kelce, the best receiving tight end in the league and this team’s de facto #1 receiver a year ago, with a 110/1338/12 slash line on 152 targets, in a role in which he will serve again in 2023. Kelce’s age is becoming a concern, going into his age 34 season, but he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, he’s been very durable in his career, missing just three games in the past nine seasons combined, and, even if he does decline in 2023, he will be declining from such a high point that he figures to remain one of the best tight ends in the league regardless, exceeding 80 on PFF in seven straight seasons, while averaging 2.19 yards per route run and exceeding 1000 yards receiving in all seven of those seasons. Even if he isn’t quite as good again in 2023, he should remain the Chiefs’ top target in the passing game.

Noah Gray, the #2 tight end, also had a pretty significant role in this offense last season for a backup tight end, playing 599 snaps and averaging 1.06 yards per route run with a 28/299/1 slash line on 34 targets. A 5th round pick in 2021, Gray didn’t show much as a rookie and will remain a backup in 2023, but he’s a solid #2 tight end and he may be someone the Chiefs view as a potential long-term successor for Kelce, when Kelce eventually declines or decides to hang them up. With a mostly inexperienced group at wide receiver, expect the Chiefs to continue relying on the tight end position heavily on the passing game. Kelce significantly elevates the overall grade of this group by himself, though there is some concern he may start to decline even somewhat, given his age.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Running back has relatively been a position of weakness for the Chiefs on offense in recent years. They attempted to solve the situation by using a 2020 1st round pick on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but he has been a disappointment through three seasons in the league. Injuries have been part of the problem, costing him 17 games total, but he also hasn’t been that effective, averaging 4.37 yards per carry on 371 carries and 0.98 yards per route run in his career. Edwards-Helaire will probably remain on the roster for 2023, but the Chiefs have tried trading him and, after declining his 5th year option for 2024, this will likely be Edwards-Helaire’s final season in Kansas City.

With Edwards-Helaire struggling to lock down the running back position, it was actually a much lower draft pick who stabilized the running back position for the Chiefs in 2022, with 7th round rookie Isiah Pacheco giving them their best lead back in years, taking 170 carries for 830 yards (4.88 YPC) and 5 touchdowns, despite having to earn his way into playing time early in the year, with just 44 carries in his first 8 games, before averaging 14.0 carries per game in his final 9 games. 

Pacheco didn’t contribute much in the passing game, with 13 catches and 0.88 yards per route run, but he ran well enough that he should remain the clear lead back and, not having to earn his way into that role early in the season, Pacheco should exceed last year’s carry total, now as a season-long starter. He could regress somewhat and it’s still worth noting that the whole league let him fall to the 7th round a year ago, but he could easily remain a solid early down back and he should have plenty of running room, on an offense where the passing game is a much bigger threat for defenses to worry about.

Pacheco will likely pair with veteran Jerick McKinnon, who only averaged 4.04 YPC on 72 carries a year ago, but who had a 56/512/9 slash line on 71 targets with a 1.50 yards per route run average that ranked 10th in the NFL among running backs. That’s nothing new for McKinnon, whose career 4.05 YPC average on 639 carries in 9 seasons in the league leaves something to be desired, but who also has a yards per route run average of 1.29 for his career and who could continue producing at the level he produced at last season, playing with by far the best quarterback he’s ever played with. 

McKinnon’s age is a concern in his age 31 season, which tends to be when running backs are over the hill, but McKinnon isn’t a traditional running back and doesn’t have the same amount of career usage (883 touches) as most backs in their age 31 season, so he could easily remain a solid pass catching option for another season or two, even if he does start to decline slightly. He and Pacheco complement each other well and should remain a solid, if unspectacular duo in 2023, with Edwards-Helaire as an insurance option.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

While the Chiefs’ offense has been consistently dominant through Patrick Mahomes’ tenure as the starter, their defense has consistently left something to be desired, ranking 27th, 14th, 22nd, 24th, and 17th over the past five seasons respectively. In the two seasons where the Chiefs were even average on defense, they won the Super Bowl and that is not a coincidence, as their offense is so good their defense only needs to be a decent complementary unit to them to be the best team in the league. There are reasons to believe the Chiefs can continue being a decent unit on that side of the ball in 2023, like they were in 2022, as they return 8 of their top-10 in terms of snaps played from a year ago.

The position group with the most change on this defense is their edge defenders. Frank Clark (716 snaps) was one of the two of their top-10 in terms of snaps to not return in 2023, while Carlos Dunlap (571 snaps), who fell just outside their top-10, also was not brought back this off-season. Both were decent players a year ago, with PFF grades of 67.2 and 66.4 respectively, but the Chiefs used their first round pick on Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah and signed free agent Charles Omenihu to a 2-year, 16 million dollar deal and both could be comparable replacements.

Anudike-Uzomah and Omenihu are also much younger than Dunlap and Clark, who were going into their age 34 and age 30 seasons respectively, and, as a result, they have the upside to be better than Dunlap and Clark were a year ago. Anudike-Uzomah is obviously a rookie with a high upside and, even with Omenihu going into his 5th season in the league, after being selected in the 5th round in 2019, he’s still only in his age 26 season and could have further untapped upside as well.

Omenihu’s run defense has left something to be desired throughout his career, finishing below 60 in PFF run defense grade in all four seasons in the league, and, in part because of that, he’s been limited to 479 snaps per season, with a max of 572 snaps in a season, coming last season, but he’s also consistently rushed the passer effectively, exceeding 60 in pass rush grade in all four seasons, including pass rush grades of 81.8 and 75.3 over the past two seasons respectively, a stretch in which he has a 12.8% pressure rate, despite lining up on the interior in obvious passing situations somewhat frequently, having the size to do so at 6-5 280. The Chiefs like to use three edge defenders together in obvious passing situations, so Omenihu will fit in well and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he set a career high in snaps in his first season in Kansas City in 2023.

The Chiefs also used a first round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on a pass rusher, taking George Karlaftis 30th overall. He immediately played a big role as a rookie, seeing 729 snaps, and while he was mediocre overall, with a 52.0 PFF grade, he should remain in a big role in year two and has the upside to take a big step forward. Michael Danna also remains as a holdover, after playing 471 snaps a year ago. A 5th round pick in 2020, Danna has turned into a decent rotational player, with grades of 61.8, 61.7, and 67.4 on PFF on snap counts of 334, 534, and 471 in his three seasons in the league respectively. 

Danna should remain a decent rotational player in 2023, with the upside for more, still only in his age 26 season. The Chiefs also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Stephen F Austin’s BJ Thompson to give themselves even more edge depth, though he won’t be anything more than a deep reserve unless there are injuries ahead of him on the depth chart and, in that case, he could easily struggle if forced into a significant role. This is an unspectacular edge defender group, but they’re not a bad group either and they have plenty of upside, with all of their key players being 26 or under and a pair of first round picks from the last two drafts.

Grade: B-

Interior Defenders

Part of the reason why the Chiefs frequently play three edge defenders together in obvious passing situations, with one lined up on the interior, is because they lack depth at the interior defender position, especially for interior pass rushers. Fortunately, they do have Chris Jones, who is one of the best pass rushers in the league regardless of position and who almost never comes off the field, ranking 2nd among interior defenders with 920 snaps played last season. 

Jones also ranked 2nd among interior defenders with an overall 91.5 PFF grade last season, playing the run at a high level and excelling with 15.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher. That’s nothing new for Jones, who has exceeded 80 on PFF in six straight seasons, including three seasons over 90, while totaling 63 sacks, 75 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate in 91 games (47.6 snaps per game) over that stretch. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from Jones in 2023.

Behind him, the Chiefs’ options are limited. Khalen Saunders (421 snaps) and Derrick Nnadi (388 snaps) played the second and third most snaps at the position last season, but Saunders is no longer with the team, after posting a decent 60.2 PFF grade, while Nnadi struggled mightily last season with a 41.3 PFF grade, especially struggling as a pass rusher with just a 2.4% pressure rate. Nnadi has been better in the past against the run, but he’s finished below average on PFF in back-to-back seasons and has never been much of a pass rusher, with a 4.7% pressure rate in five seasons in the league, since being selected in the 3rd round by the Chiefs in 2018. Nnadi will almost definitely start in base packages, but only for lack of a better option. 

After Jones and Nnadi, the Chiefs’ top veteran reserve option is Tershawn Wharton, a 2020 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 66.2 PFF grade on 518 snaps as a rookie, but then fell all the way to 43.3 on 501 snaps in his second season in the league in 2021, before suffering a torn ACL midway through the 2022 season, limiting him to mediocre 149 snaps in 5 games. Wharton should be healthy for the start of the 2023 season, but he might not be 100% right away and he’s now three years removed from his last healthy season as a solid rotational reserve, so he’s a pretty underwhelming option. The Chiefs also used a 6th round pick on Texas’ Keondre Coburn, who could have to play a role as a rookie, even despite being a late round pick. Chris Jones elevates this position group significantly, but the rest of the group is very underwhelming. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Chiefs retain their top-2 off ball linebackers from a year ago, which is a good thing, as Nick Bolton and Willie Gay played well in significant roles, with PFF grades of 75.7 and 69.6 on snap counts of 1,118 and 607 respectively. Both were recent second round picks, Bolton in 2021 and Gay in 2020, and both flashed potential earlier in their career, both career best years in 2022, with Bolton playing 623 snaps and receiving a 69.2 PFF grade as a rookie and Gay playing snap counts of 269 and 436 over his first two seasons in the league and receiving grades of 68.1 and 55.7 respectively. It’s possible both won’t repeat the best year of their career again in 2023, but it’s also possible that they continue developing and become even better. They are one of the best young linebacker duos in the league.

Despite already having Bolton and Gay, the Chiefs were surprisingly able to sign former Charger Drue Tranquill to a cheap 1-year, 3 million dollar deal in free agency. Tranquill played 977 snaps last season and received a 66.5 grade from PFF and, only in his age 28 season, seemed like he should have been getting a starting job somewhere, but in Kansas City he’ll be the third linebacker, a role in which the now departed Darius Harris only played 292 snaps last season (64.4 PFF grade), mostly when Gay was out for a 4-game stretch due to suspension.

Tranquill also had a PFF grade of 66.6 on 382 snaps in 2019 and a PFF grade of 64.6 on 560 snaps in 2021, with an injury plagued year in between, so he is relatively proven and gives the Chiefs great depth in case an injury strikes ahead of him on the depth chart. The Chiefs also used a 3rd round pick in 2022 on Leo Chenal and he showed some promise on 262 snaps as a rookie, so they have a very deep and talented group at this position. 

Grade: A-

Secondary

The other starter the Chiefs lost in this defense this off-season was safety Juan Thornhill, who had a 67.1 PFF grade in 16 starts, but whose departure the Chiefs were prepared for, using a 2nd round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft on Bryan Cook, who flashed potential on 341 snaps as a rookie and who profiles as a solid starter long-term. He will start next to Justin Reid, who remains the starter after being added on a 3-year, 31.5 million dollar deal as a free agent last off-season. 

Reid was a 3rd round pick of the Texans in 2018 and immediately had back-to-back above average seasons in his first two years in the league, with grades of 75.2 and 76.7 on snap counts of 906 and 916 respectively, but he came relatively cheap to the Chiefs last off-season because he had back-to-back down years in 2020 and 2021, with grades of 60.7 and 50.9 on snap counts of 888 and 780 respectively. However, Reid bounced back with a 73.2 PFF grade on 1,112 snaps in his first season in Kansas City in 2022 and, still only in his age 26 season, he has a good chance to remain a solid starter, even if there’s some risk of him regressing, given his inconsistent past. 

The Chiefs also added veteran Mike Edwards this off-season, to potentially push the young Bryan Cook for the starting job, but most likely to just be an above average third starter, and they also used a 4th round pick on Virginia Tech’s Chamarri Conner, to give them even more depth at the position. Edwards, a 3rd round pick of the Buccaneers in 2019, was a de facto third safety for much of his time in Tampa Bay, but he did flash potential with grades of 77.0 and 73.6 on snap counts of 189 and 532 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, though he was inconsistent and could never translate it to a larger role, with grades of 58.2 and 56.7 on snap counts of 614 and 814 in 2019 and 2022 respectively as well, with his down 2022 season likely being the cause of his deflated free agent market (1-year, 3 million). Still, he’s great depth to have.

At cornerback, the Chiefs return their top-4 from a year ago in terms of snaps played, L’Jarius Sneed (1,106 snaps), Trent McDuffie (683 snaps), Jaylen Watson (604 snaps) and Joshua Williams (437 snaps), and all four are young players with the upside to be better. McDuffie, Watson, and Williams were all drafted just last year, going in the 1st, 7th, and 4th round respectively. McDuffie was a starter in 2022, missing six games with injury, but averaging 62.1 snaps per game when he played and showing the talent that made him a first round pick, with a 73.6 PFF grade. He should remain a starter in 2023 and has the upside to develop into an above average starting cornerback for years to come. 

L’Jarius Sneed is also likely to remain the other starter, after posting a 76.1 grade in 2022. The relative elder of this group, Sneed was a 4th round pick in 2020, flashing talent with a 72.9 PFF grade on 410 snaps as a rookie, posting a 64.1 PFF grade on 918 snaps as a starter in 2021, before breaking out with his career best year in 2023. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of being an above average starter and, given that, he could regress a little in 2023, but, even if he does, he should at least remain a solid starter and, only in his age 26 season, he could easily remain an above average starter for years to come. 

McDuffie and Sneed starting will leave Watson and Williams competing for the third cornerback job. Watson played more snaps last season, but Williams was the better player (60.6 PFF grade vs. 56.1) and was the higher draft pick, so he might have the inside track on the third cornerback job in year two. Williams might not have a huge upside, but he seems like a better option than Watson, who was actually mostly a liability for this secondary last season, even in limited action. This is a young secondary overall, but they have a lot of upside and depth and it’s generally a solid group.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

Not a lot has changed for the defending Super Bowl Champions, who should remain one of the top few contenders in the league again in 2023, with Patrick Mahomes leading an offense that will remain dominant as long as they have their franchise quarterback on the field, and a defense that looks likely to be a decent complementary unit again in 2023. It’s a tough path out of the AFC for any contender and there’s a good reason why we haven’t had a repeat champ in two decades, but the Chiefs have as good of a chance as anyone to make it back to the top. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in AFC West