Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs sign DE Vance Walker

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Chiefs, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Vance Walker has been one of the most underrated interior defensive linemen in the NFL over the past 2 seasons. He’s been an above average starter in both Atlanta and Oakland over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked defensive tackle and 36th ranked defensive tackle in the past 2 seasons respectively. Despite his strong 2012 in Atlanta, he was only able to land a one-year deal in Oakland last off-season and after another strong season in Oakland in 2013, he was still only able to land a 3-year, 10 million dollar deal with the Chiefs (with another 3 million available through incentives)

Obviously this was a great deal for the Chiefs, who needed another starter on the defensive line after losing Tyson Jackson to the Falcons. Walker isn’t as good of a pure run stopper as Jackson, but he’s a much better pass rusher capable of playing all 3 downs if need be, which wasn’t true of Jackson. Considering Jackson landed 25 million over 5 years in Atlanta, with more money guaranteed (11 million) as the total value of this contract, it’s a bargain for the Chiefs. The only minor concern is that Walker has never played in a true 3-4 and at 6-2 305, he’s not an obvious fit at 5-technique defensive end.

Grade: A-

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Kansas City Chiefs 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Chiefs, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Chiefs were the NFL’s most improved team last season, going from 2 wins in 2012 to 11 wins in 2013. It shouldn’t have been as surprising as it was. They had a lot of talent in 2012, as evidenced by their 6 Pro-Bowlers, but they couldn’t do anything because of horrific quarterback play, horrific head coaching, and a horrific turnover margin. The additions of Alex Smith and Andy Reid stabilized all 3 of those things and allowed talented players like Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, Eric Berry, Dontari Poe, Derrick Johnson, Branden Albert and others to shine. Their turnover margin actually went from -24 all the way to +18.

It also helped that they had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (the easiest, according to DVOA). They actually weren’t quite as good as their record made them seem as they went 10-0 against teams that finished 8-8 or worse and 1-6 in their 7 other games, including a post-season loss in Indianapolis. Their one win against a winning team came against a Philadelphia team that was still using Michael Vick under center.  Andy Reid did a great job, but I’m glad he didn’t win Coach of the Year. He inherited an underrated squad, had an easy schedule, and it was a loaded Coach of the Year field (Reid, Ron Rivera, Bill Belichick, Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly).

Their schedule will be tougher in 2014 and they won’t be able to count on such a strong turnover margin. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. They were the beneficiary of that in 2013. In 2014, they might not be. They also have a good amount of key free agents, including left tackle Branden Albert, who isn’t expected back.

They have a strong supporting cast, but the limiting factor is Alex Smith. Smith is a league average starting quarterback, maybe a little bit below league average, which was a tremendous upgrade over Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel, but is he the type of guy who can lead you to victory against tough opponents or get hot in the post-season and win a Super Bowl? He was Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked quarterback last season, including 29th in pure passing grade.

The Chiefs went 10-6 in 2010 under Matt Cassel for similar reasons (strong running game, easy schedule, strong turnover margin) and stuck with him instead of drafting someone like Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick in the first round. Alex Smith is a better quarterback than Cassel ever was, but the Chiefs may end up making the same mistake twice if they are confident in Smith as their franchise quarterback. He has one year left on his contract and the Chiefs are reportedly currently in talks about extending him, which may end up keeping their team in no man’s land for a few more years.

Positional Needs

Wide Receiver

Jamaal Charles led the team in receiving with 70 catches for 693 yards and 7 touchdowns. Dwayne Bowe was 2nd, their leading wide receiver, but he was a huge disappointment, showing poor chemistry with Alex Smith and catching just 57 passes for 673 yards and 5 touchdowns. After them, it was Donnie Avery and Dexter McCluster, the former of whom could be a cap casualty and the latter of whom is a free agent. Avery was Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible. They desperately need another downfield pass catcher.

Guard

Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz are both free agents this off-season. Asamoah was the starter at right guard, while Schwartz made 7 starts at right and left guard and also played some right tackle. Jeff Allen is currently slated to be the left guard in 2014, where he played most of 2013, but he struggled mightily, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 62nd ranked guard out of 81 eligible. Schwartz should be the left guard, but if they don’t re-sign him and Asamoah, they’ll need at least one new starter at guard, if not two.

Safety

The Chiefs frequently use three safeties in obvious passing situations as Eric Berry moves towards the line of scrimmage and plays a lot of linebacker in sub packages. Kendrick Lewis, Quintin Demps, and Husain Abdullah are all free agents and those are the Chiefs’ top-3 safeties after Berry. None of them are great anyway. They could need up to two new safeties this off-season. Adding at least one average or better starter at the position would be wise.

Offensive Tackle

Branden Albert is a free agent this off-season, after serving on the franchise tag this season. It doesn’t sound like he’ll be back after he and the Chiefs have struggled to come to an agreement on a long-term deal. Eric Fisher was the #1 overall pick in 2013, but he struggled mightily at right tackle this season and he might not be ready to play on the blindside. Donald Stephenson was their swing tackle last season and could be a bookend opposite Fisher, but the 2012 3rd round pick has struggled mightily in limited action in 2 years in his career. Adding another offensive tackle, assuming Albert is gone, would make sense.

Tight End

The Chiefs don’t just need pass catchers at wide receiver. They could use tight end help as well. Sean McGrath led their tight ends in receiving yardage, catching just 26 passes for 302 yards and 2 touchdowns. Anthony Fasano struggled in his first year with the team and could be a cap casualty this off-season. Travis Kelce could be a bigger factor in 2013, but he missed his entire rookie year with injuries and was only a 3rd round pick so he might not be much help. They could add another tight end this off-season.

Defensive End

Tyson Jackson, the 3rd overall pick of the 2009 NFL Draft, shook the bust label a little bit this season, reinventing himself as a two-down run stuffer in Bob Sutton’s defense. However, he’s a free agent this off-season and if he isn’t brought back, they’ll need to find a new two-down run stuffer and starting 5-technique defensive end. Fortunately, it’s just a two-down position because Allen Bailey and Dontari Poe handle sub package duties from the interior. He wouldn’t be that hard to replace if need be, though he did have a good season against the run.

Middle Linebacker

Starting middle linebacker Akeem Jordan is a free agent this off-season. If he isn’t able to be retained, he’ll have to be replaced. Fortunately, the middle linebacker spot is only a two-down position in Kansas City’s 3-4 defense because Eric Berry comes down and plays linebacker in obvious passing situations. It wouldn’t be hard to find another capable two-down run stuffing linebacker. Promoting 2013 4th round pick Nico Johnson is an option.

Quarterback

Is Alex Smith the long-term solution? He was a tremendous upgrade over Brady Quinn and Matt Cassel, but is he the type of guy who can lead you to victory against tough opponents or get hot in the post-season and win a Super Bowl? He was Pro Football Focus’ 24th ranked quarterback last season, including 29th in pure passing grade. The Chiefs went 10-6 in 2010 under Matt Cassel for similar reasons (strong running game, easy schedule, strong turnover margin) and stuck with him instead of drafting someone like Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick in the first round. Alex Smith is a better quarterback than Cassel ever was, but the Chiefs may end up making the same mistake twice if they are confident in Smith as their franchise quarterback. I’m not saying move on from him, but maybe instead of extending him right away going into his contract year, which sounds like what they’re going to do, draft a developmental quarterback early and make him play out his contract year, knowing that, worst case scenario, you have the franchise tag in your back pocket if he is actually a much better quarterback than I think he is.

Punt Returner

Dexter McCluster is a free agent this off-season and he handled every single one of their punts except for one last season. If they don’t bring him back, they’ll need to find someone new to handle punt returns.

Key Free Agents

OT Branden Albert

Branden Albert has been a very solid blindside protector over the past 3 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked offensive tackle in 2011, 25th ranked offensive tackle in 2012, and 28th ranked offensive tackle in 2013. However, he’s had a history of back problems and now is going into his age 30 season, two big reasons why the Chiefs and he have had big problems agreeing on a long-term deal. He’s unlikely to be back with the Chiefs, but he’ll still big a hot commodity on the open market. Good blindside protectors like him are incredibly valuable.

G Jon Asamoah

An underrated interior offensive lineman, Asamoah has graded out well above average in all 3 seasons as a starter, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked guard in 2012. He missed 7 games essentially to end the 2013 season, which will probably hurt his market, but he’s still an above average guard who should be paid like one. Something similar to what Louis Vasquez got last off-season (4 years, 23.5 million with 13 million guaranteed) would be pretty reasonable.

G Geoff Schwartz

Geoff Schwartz played well in 2010 with the Panthers, in 11 games at guard and 5 games at tackle. His composite grade would have been 5th among guard and 13th among tackles on Pro Football Focus. However, he missed the entire 2011 season with injury and was relegated to reserve work in Minnesota in 2012, impressing in limited action. In 2013 with the Chiefs, he played 549 snaps at left guard, right guard, and right tackle and his composite grade would have been 7th among guards, 20th among tackles, despite the limited playing time. He’s a starting caliber player (at worst) and deserves to be appreciated and paid as one. He’s only going into his age 28 season.

DE Tyson Jackson

A surprise pick #3 overall in 2009, Tyson Jackson looked very much like a bust going into this season, grading out below average on Pro Football Focus in the three of first four years of his career from 2009-2012. However, the Chiefs forced him to take a pay cut ahead of his contract year in 2013 and it seemed to wake him up. Bob Sutton coming in as defensive coordinator probably also helped. He graded out as Pro Football Focus 14th ranked 3-4 defensive end, including 10th in terms of run grade. That being said, he’s only a part-time player who doesn’t generate any pass rush in a passing league. He played just 509 snaps and he might coast if he gets some guaranteed money. Teams shouldn’t overpay based on one good year. He should consider himself lucky if he gets what teammate Mike DeVito got last off-season. DeVito, a rich man’s Jackson, got 12.6 million over 3 years.

S Kendrick Lewis

A 5th round pick in 2010, Kendrick Lewis has been a 4-year starter on his rookie deal and he has played pretty well. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in 2 seasons and below average in 2. He’s roughly a league average starter at safety and should be paid like one.

WR Dexter McCluster

Dexter McCluster has been an all-purpose player in 4 years since being drafted by the Chiefs in the 2nd round in 2010. He’s caught 172 passes for 1500 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns, rushed for 662 yards and a touchdown on 152 carries, returned 52 kickoffs for 1087 yards, and returned 79 punts for 989 yards and 3 touchdowns. His best role is as a depth receiver and punt returner. He was one of the league’s best punt returners last year, scoring twice, averaging 12.2 yards per punt return, and finishing as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd ranked punt returner last season.

MLB Akeem Jordan

An under-the-radar depth linebacker that Andy Reid brought over with him from Philadelphia, Jordan was a starter in Kansas City this year in a two-down middle linebacker role. He only played 483 snaps, but actually ended up as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked middle linebacker. Two-down linebackers don’t command much money, but he’s proven that he can be a solid base player in that role and he has experience in both the 3-4 and the 4-3.

Cap Casualty Candidates

WR Donnie Avery

Donnie Avery struggled mightily in his first season in Kansas City, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 105th ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible. That’s no surprise considering how inefficient he was in Indianapolis the year before, grading out 100th out of 105 eligible wide receivers. The Chiefs can save 1.35 million on the cap by cutting him.

TE Anthony Fasano

Anthony Fasano also struggled mightily in his first season in Kansas City, catching 23 passes for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns on 236 routes run, a pathetic average of 0.85 yards per route run. Only one tight end ran more routes and averaged fewer per route. The Chiefs have Sean McGrath and Travis Kelce will be coming back from injury. They could easily cut him and replace him with another tight end through the draft, a move that would save them 1 million in cap space.

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Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 AFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, Chiefs, Colts, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)

This is the game I’m staying away from, simply because of how inconsistent Indianapolis has been this season. They’ve been alternating multiple game stretches where they’ve looked like a 13-3 team and a 6-10 team, with nothing really in between. Last season, they were nowhere near as good as their 11-5 record, as that was powered by 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished 7-9 or worse. They started out looking like that team, barely beating Oakland and losing to Miami in back-to-back home games. However, then they went on a roll over a 6 game stretch that included wins over good teams (Denver, Seattle, San Francisco) and blowout wins (34 point win in Jacksonville) that their 2012 season just didn’t have.

However, then after the bye they came out and looked like their 2012 team or even worse, with 3 point wins over Tennessee and Houston and then an 8 point win over Tennessee, but also a 29 point loss against Arizona, a 14 point loss against Cincinnati, and a 30 point loss against St. Louis. They had a -59 point differential over a 6 game stretch in which they got blown out by every decent team they faced and barely beat mediocre football teams. It reeked of 2012. However, since then, they’ve blown out the Texans by 22, went into Kansas City and won convincingly by 16 against a good football team, and then blew out Jacksonville by 20, in a game that was never really close.

Overall on the season, they’ve averaged out as an 11-5 team that’s lucky to be 11-5, with a 5-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a pretty easy schedule. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they’re only 14th, which is the lowest among playoff teams who had their current starting quarterback start all 16 games. They move the chains at a 72.21% rate and allow opponents to move the chains at a 71.52% rate, which is good for a differential of 0.70%. Football Outsiders echoes this, as they rank 13th in DVOA and rank 11th in what’s known as “estimated wins” with 9.5. After San Diego, they’re probably the worst playoff team when you look at their season on the whole, but they never play like that 9 or 10 win team. They’re either great or terrible.

They also rank 29th in terms of variance on Football Outsides, which means they were the 4th most inconsistent team. There are actually playoff teams with very high variances, including Philadelphia who ranks 32nd, but there are always good explanation for why certain teams have high variances. Philadelphia changed quarterbacks mid-season. Green Bay (28th) lost Aaron Rodgers for a large chunk of the season. New Orleans (25th) has a huge home/road disparity. The same is true of Cincinnati (21st). Indianapolis’ seems to be unexplainable. For that reason, I actually kind of hope they lose, regardless of what I end up picking, because it would make my life easier.

Making matters even worse, Kansas City is 23rd in variance. There’s is somewhat explainable. They’ve just struggled with good teams this season. They’ve had arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL this season and won all 10 games against teams that finished under .500, but they’re just 1-5 against .500 or better teams. Sure one of those losses came in a meaningless game against the Chargers week 17, but also their only win came against Philadelphia, before Nick Foles took over as starting quarterback. That bodes well for Indianapolis’ chances this week, provided they don’t go cold, as they’ve obviously been prone to doing.

Kansas City, however, has had the better season overall. While Indianapolis ranks 14th in rate of moving the chains and 13th in DVOA, Kansas City ranks 7th in both. They move the chains at a 72.08% rate, as opposed to 67.81% for their opponents, a differential of 4.27%. Using rate of moving the chains, this game should be a pick ‘em, as opposed to Indianapolis being favored by 2.5. The Chiefs also are getting Justin Houston back this week, which will be very big for their defense. In the first 10 games of the season, they allowed 13.8 points per game. In their last 5 (excluding the meaningless week 17 games), which includes a game Houston started, but left earlier with injury, they’ve allowed 26.0 points per game.

That’s not all Houston’s absence, as they’ve had a tougher schedule, but they also held Denver (27) to their 2nd lowest point total of the season in Denver when Houston was healthy. Without him, they surrendered 35 to them at home. They also surrendered 31 to Oakland, without him, a total they didn’t surrender to anyone with him. He was playing like a Defensive Player of the Year candidate before he got hurt, so having him back in the lineup, provided he’s 100%, is going to be huge.

In spite of that, Indianapolis is actually the side I’m going with, if I had to, gun to my head (or for a pick ‘em/against the spread pool) for 3 reasons. I already mentioned Kansas City’s issues against good teams this season. The 2nd reason is that Kansas City is a public underdog. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and that works as a good tiebreaker. I especially love fading public underdogs because, whenever the public thinks there will be an upset, it usually doesn’t happen. The 3rd reason is just that Indianapolis happens to be hot right now. Sure we’ve seen them go cold off of a hot streak before and vice versa, but it’s worth mentioning. As long as this line is under a field goal, Indianapolis is the pick. I might take Kansas City with the field goal though. It’s that close.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Kansas City Chiefs 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -2

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (11-4) at San Diego Chargers (8-7)

I’m going to keep this one short. If you bet any money on this game, you’re a degenerate gambler. Seek help. Kansas City has already locked up the 5 seed in the AFC. Andy Reid, like he did several times in Philadelphia, will only play his starters for a series or two, much like a pre-season game, and then get his 2nd team some reps, so guys can rest for the playoffs.

It’s the right call. Some people seem to believe Reid should play his starters for momentum purposes, whatever that means, but there’s no evidence that there’s any benefit to that. Since 2002, teams that lose week 17 are 15-15 in the first round of the playoffs. Teams who win week 17 are 29-29. What there is evidence for is that it is possible for a bone to break or a muscle or ligament to tear during a week 17 game. Keep your guys healthy and focus on the playoffs. Momentum doesn’t exist.

San Diego, meanwhile, could have the meaning from this game sucked out of it before it even starts. The only way they can make the playoffs is if both Miami and Baltimore lose. Both of those teams play in the earlier time slot, while the Chargers play in the late afternoon slot. Chances are, one of those teams will win their game and eliminate San Diego before this one even starts. They could still give it their all in spite of that and play for future jobs and playing time and they’ll certainly be game planning all week like it’s a meaningful game. However, would you really blame them for giving it less than 100% hours after getting eliminated? And also, how do you game plan for an opponent’s 2nd string?

That brings me to my 2nd point. How good is Kansas City’s 2nd string? Probably not very good, but how not very good? Are they better than every NFL’s teams 1st strings? Also, how much will Andy Reid rest his starters? Will they play one drive? Will they play two? Will he only rest his stars and play the rest of his starters? What constitutes a star? How good is Kansas City with some starters? How good are they with starters playing one drive? How good are they with starters playing two drives? How am I supposed to figure this one out and will San Diego even be in a position we’re they’re taking this one seriously? How did the odds makers even come up with a spread for this one? Where did 9.5 come from? Do the odds makers even know or did they just throw a dart at a board? I think San Diego will probably win this game, but that’s about where the even semi-confident predictions stop.

I do have to give a pick, for my own records and for people with ATS pick ‘em leagues, so I’m going with San Diego, for two reasons. One is simply to fade the public, who seems to be very confidently on Kansas City for whatever reason. The public always loses money in the long run (probably because they bet on ridiculous games like this) so it’s a good idea to be on the opposite side of them. That’s a good tiebreaker when you need one.

The 2nd reason is because I feel San Diego is an underrated team. They are 8-7, but 5-2 in games decided by more than a touchdown and just 3-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 78.56% rate, as opposed to 75.33% for their opponents, a differential of 3.22%, which ranks 9th in the NFL. They would deserve to be 9.5 point favorites over anyone from St. Louis (23rd in rate of moving the chains differential) and worse.

I don’t know how to compare whatever Kansas City is coming with this week vs. the St. Louis Rams, but the Rams are probably better, though, again, I don’t know what San Diego’s mental state is going to be. However, because the Chargers are underrated, I’m going to assume we’re getting line value with them somehow, fade the public and take the Chargers, gun to my head. But again, if you bet money on this game, seek help.

Side note: I just read the first sentence of this and saw that it said “I’m going to keep this short” and realized I wrote over 750 words. Apparently I’m incapable of keeping it short because I just wrote 750 words on how I don’t know anything about this game. Maybe I should seek help.

San Diego Chargers 31 Kansas City Chiefs 20

Pick against spread: San Diego -9.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

I’m completely split on this one. Not only do I not have a convincing argument for either side, but both of these two teams are essentially locked in to their current seed. Kansas City would need Denver to lose to either Houston or Oakland for them to move up (not happening) and they can’t move down, while the Colts would need the Bengals to lose at home to either the Vikings or the Ravens (probably not happening) to move up and they can’t move down.

On top of that, not only are they locked into their current seeds, but they will almost definitely be playing each other in the 1st round in the 4/5 matchup. Sure, these two teams might still have hope about moving up, but, at the same time, their coaching staffs could be realistic and believe it makes more sense to concede this game and stay in their current spot than to let their opponent get a firsthand look at their best stuff. They might not do that, but the fact that either could makes this game so uncertain, especially since we don’t know which team would be to the one to do so.

Moving on to not having a convincing argument for either side, there are two conflicting trends here. On one hand, the Chiefs scored a ridiculous 56 points last week. Teams tend to carry that over into the next week, going 45-29 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of a game in which they scored 48 or more points. On the other hand, this is the last tough game on Indianapolis’ schedule, while Kansas City still has a trip to San Diego coming up. The Colts host the Jaguars next week. Teams are 116-86 as non-divisional road underdogs before divisional home favorites since 2002.

Gun to my head, I’m taking Kansas City. They rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 72.23% rate, as opposed to 67.12% for their opponents, a differential of 5.11% that ranks 7th in the NFL. The Colts, however, are all the way down at 17th, moving the chains at a 71.86% rate, as opposed to 72.25% for their opponents, a differential of -0.39%. That suggests this line should be closer to 8.5, instead of 7, and that doesn’t even take into account that the Colts are not playing good football of late. They have a point differential of -37 since the bye, 7 games, despite a 22 point win over the lowly Texans last week. The Chiefs also are probably going to get back Justin Houston from injury. He looked like the Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner before he got hurt and they’ve noticeably missed him defensively, so that’ll be a big re-addition. I’m not confident in the Chiefs at all though.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Kansas City -7

Confidence: None

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9)

The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL, while the Raiders are one of the worst, by any measure. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs rank 5th, while the Raiders rank 31st. In terms of rate of movement the chains, the Chiefs move them at a 71.36% rate, as opposed to 66.17% for their opponents, a differential of 5.19% that ranks 7th in the NFL. The Raiders, meanwhile, are 30th in differential, moving the chains at a 66.49% rate, as opposed to 72.77% for their opponents, a differential of -6.29%. Using that, this line should be around 8.5, which is appropriate for a line between a top level team and a bottom level team, instead of 5, as it currently is.

The Chiefs are also in a good spot, as road favorites off of a win as road favorites, a situation teams are 93-71 ATS in since 1989, including 72-44 ATS as road favorites of 3+ after a win of 3+ as road favorites of 3+. They have plenty of reason to give their best effort here as they’re a Denver slipup away from leading the division and getting a first round bye. The Raiders, meanwhile, could be too distracted to keep this one close, even if they were good enough to. They have to go to San Diego next week. Teams are 26-39 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. The Chiefs should be able to win this one by a good margin and they should be the right side, as long this line is below 6 points.

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 10

Pick against spread: Kansas City -5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Commanders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

How can the Chiefs not beat the Redskins by 4 or more right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Chiefs favored by 3.5 here. As is often the case with huge public leans, I think the odds makers are set to make a lot of money here. I love fading the public and I think they are flat out wrong here because they aren’t seeing the whole picture.

This line suggests that the Redskins would be underdogs of about 9.5 points in Kansas City. This is the same team that didn’t cover as 7.5 point home favorites against the Texans and Browns and that was when they still had Justin Houston. They really miss him and their pass rush has suddenly become non-existent. They have 1 sack in the past 3 weeks, after 36 in their first 9 games. As a result, they have allowed 103 points over the past 3 games, after allowing just 111 in their first 9 games combined.

Sure, they’ve faced a very tough batch of offenses in the last 3 weeks, going against Denver twice and San Diego, but you can just as easily point out that they faced a very easy batch of offenses in their first 9 games. Over their last 5 games before the first Denver game, they faced a backup quarterback in 4 of 5 games, including three 3rd string quarterbacks. They beat those three 3rd string quarterbacks by a combined 17 points. They were way too dependent on easy competition, recovering fumbles, winning the turnover battle, and return touchdowns for close wins early in the season. They’ve just been exposed over the past 3 weeks, especially without Justin Houston.

Also, the Redskins don’t have a bad offense at all, moving the chains at a 75% rate. Their biggest issue is their defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, but we’re still getting line value with them. The Chiefs’ offense moves the ball at just a 73% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 2 points and that’s before you take schedule into account. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs have faced the easiest schedule, while the Redskins have faced the 12th hardest.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. They put everything they had into that Denver game last week and came up short. They’re essentially locked into the 5th seed no matter what they do. They have a 3 game lead over the 6th seeded Ravens and they are essentially two games back of the Broncos for the division (1 game and tiebreaker) who have an incredibly easy schedule the rest of the way. Teams are 38-51 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as home favorites since 1989.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, a situation teams are 65-45 ATS in since 2002. They’re actually in their third straight game as home underdogs. It’s a small sample size obviously, but teams are 8-3 ATS as home underdogs off of back-to-back losses as home underdogs since 2002, 13-6 ATS if you go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size. It would be a bigger play on the Redskins if I trusted they hadn’t mailed in the season, unfamiliar with struggling after what happened last year, but they should get up for this one and as long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (+0)

Record: 9-2

There’s not a lot of shame in allowing 41 points in a game to the Chargers when you’re missing your top two pass rushers, especially considering the Chiefs were probably pretty distracted in between two games against Denver that would essentially decide the division regardless of what happened in the San Diego game. You could also argue the Chargers are a better offensive team than the Broncos. After all, they lead the NFL, moving the chains at over an 82% rate. They’ll have Tamba Hali back this week, which will help, and they’ll be more prepared for life without Justin Houston and more focused for their biggest game of the season. They should be able to keep Peyton Manning in check. After all, they held the Broncos to a season low 27 points two weeks ago and Peyton Manning has slowed since his hot start.

Week 12 Studs

LE Allen Bailey

CB Sean Smith

Week 12 Duds

ROLB Dezman Moses

CB Sean Smith

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (9-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)

It’s crazy how quickly a team can go from overrated to underrated in the blink of an eye in the NFL. Two weeks ago, the Chiefs were 8 point underdogs in Denver and the public refused to believe that a 9-0 team possibly deserved to be 8 point underdogs anywhere. The Broncos won by 10 and the odds makers won money. Now two weeks later, the Broncos are in Kansas City and favored by 5.5 points and the public is all over them, which could set the odds makers up to win money again.

Being favored by 5.5 points on the road is equivalent to being favored by 11.5 points at home. So just because the Chiefs failed to cover the spread by 2 points, the line deserved to move 3.5 points? Sure, the Chiefs lost to the Chargers last week, but the Broncos didn’t look great in a loss in New England either. This line has actually shifted 2 points since last week as the early line was -3.5. The Chiefs will be without Justin Houston in this one with injury, but they still have a lot of talented defensive players, including Derrick Johnson, Dontari Poe, Tyson Jackson, and Eric Berry, all of whom are playing at a borderline Pro-Bowl level. Tamba Hali also is and he’ll be back for this one, after missing the final 3 quarters or so of their loss to San Diego, in which they surrendered 41 points.

There’s not a lot of shame in allowing 41 points in a game to the Chargers when you’re missing your top two pass rushers, especially considering the Chiefs were probably pretty distracted in between two games against Denver that would essentially decide the division regardless of what happened in the San Diego game. Having at least Hali back will be a big boost and it also helps that the Chiefs have a week to game plan for life without Houston. Losing someone like that mid-game is really rough (even ignoring they also lost Hali), but at least they know they’ll be without him this time around.

You could also argue the Chargers are a better offensive team than the Broncos. After all, they lead the NFL, moving the chains at over an 82% rate, while the Broncos now rank 3rd behind San Diego and New Orleans, moving them at an 81% rate. They’ve also really slowed down since their incredible start offensively. In his first 5 games, Peyton Manning completed 150 of 196 (76.5%) for 1884 yards (9.61 YPA), 20 touchdowns, and 1 interception. However, in his past 6 games, Peyton Manning has completed 155 of 253 (61.3%) for 1838 yards (7.26 YPA), 16 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. His numbers from his past 6 games aren’t bad by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s not otherworldly like he was to start the season. This line is still treating him like he is.

The Chiefs should be able to keep him in check, even without Justin Houston. After all, they did hold him and the Broncos to a season low 27 points in Denver two weeks ago. People seem to be completely discounting how well this defense played over the first nine games of the season because of the last 2 games. Their offense still has issues, but their defense is still very good and there’s no way they deserve to be 5.5 point underdogs at home to anyone. Football Outsiders still has them as their 9th ranked team in terms of DVOA, which takes into account strength of schedule, recovering fumbles, scoring on returns, all of the things that helped the Chiefs started 9-0. I think that’s accurate.

The Chiefs are also in a good spot here, unlike last week. Since 1989, teams are 16-5 ATS as underdogs two weeks after losing as underdogs to the same divisional opponent. These two teams are going to be so familiar with each other and that’s one of the great equalizers. The Broncos, meanwhile, are the ones in the bad spot. They just lost in overtime in a crushing defeat in New England.  Teams are 15-33 ATS as favorites off of a road loss in overtime since 2002. Worst case scenario, I think the Chiefs can keep it within a field goal or maybe 4 points, but I think they have a very good chance of actually winning the game outright.

Denver Broncos 24 Kansas City Chiefs 23

Pick against spread: Kansas City +5.5

Confidence: Medium

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