Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs re-sign P Dustin Colquitt

stevenlourie Chiefs

I don’t normally grade punter signings, but Dustin Colquitt got the richest contract in NFL history by a punter, signing for 18.75 million over 5 years with 8.9 million guaranteed. Ordinarily, it’s a mistake to commit that much money to a specialist like a punter, but if you’re going to do it, it makes a lot more sense to do so with a punter than a kicker because punters don’t have the same year to year and even game to game volatility that a kicker has. As far as punters go, there were better choices to be the highest paid punter of all-time, but not by a lot. Colquitt was ProFootballFocus’ 6th rated punter this season and he has been a top-10 punter in each of the last four seasons, something only Andy Lee and Brandon Fields can also say. I wouldn’t say I love this move, but it’s not terrible.

Grade: B

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San Francisco 49ers trade QB Alex Smith to the Kansas City Chiefs

stevenlourie 49ers, Chiefs

Trade for Chiefs: I was stunned when I saw what the 49ers got for Alex Smith. When news that the 49ers and Chiefs likely had a deal in place for Alex Smith broke, it was rumored that they got anything from a 3rd to 5th rounder. Reports leading up to the trade said that the 49ers wouldn’t get anything more than a mid-round pick, including a Sacramento Bee report on Wednesday Morning, hours before the compensation was announced, that said the 49ers wouldn’t get anything more than a 4th rounder.

That made sense. Smith was a free agent last off-season and teams weren’t exactly lining up to pay him. Owed 16 million over the final 2 years of his contract, it made sense that teams didn’t want to pony up a high pick for a quarterback that, without San Francisco’s great coaching staff and great supporting cast, would probably not be a whole lot better than he was in 2009 and 2010.

Sure, last off-season was a better quarterback draft, but there were also more quarterback needy teams. Teams like Miami and Seattle have since found guys to satisfy their need at the quarterback position, while very few new teams became quarterback needy. The Cardinals are one of those as they seem interested in giving up on Kevin Kolb, but they were never a realistic destination for Smith because they play in the 49ers’ division. The other team is the Bills, but they seem to be much more interested in going the young quarterback route after finally acknowledging that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not the long term solution.

The Jets and Jaguars remain either uninterested (Jaguars) or financially unable (Jets) to find an upgrade for their current quarterback. With the Cardinals not being a realistic suitor, the only realistic destinations for Smith were Kansas City and Cleveland. Other teams might have expressed interest, but I don’t see why a team ended up giving up significantly more than a mid-round pick to pay a guy that teams weren’t lining up to pay last off-season. The 49ers’ haul in this deal is the 34th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft and a conditional mid round pick in 2014.

I like the fit of Smith in Kansas City, a lot. First, Andy Reid’s west coast offense plays much more to the strengths of the weak armed Smith than the downfield throw based offenses of Norv Turner in Cleveland and Bruce Arians in Arizona. Second, the Chiefs needed a quarterback upgrade probably more than any other team in the NFL and this was an awful off-season for that to be the case.

This is a talented team. People laughed when it was announced that they had 5 Pro-Bowlers, but they do have a lot of Pro-Bowl caliber players. Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are among the two best bookend pass rushers in the NFL. Brandon Flowers is at least a top-10 cornerback in the NFL, maybe top-5. Derrick Johnson is one of the best middle linebackers and Jamaal Charles one of the best running backs. Jon Asamoah is one of the league’s best young interior linemen and don’t forget about left tackle Branden Albert and wide receiver Dwayne Bowe. Both are among the top free agents at their respective positions this off-season even though both are loaded positions in this free agency class. At least one of those two should be back in 2013.

If the NFL were a “who has the most good players” contest, the Chiefs would be up there among the best in the NFL, but it’s not. It’s a team game and a quarterback based league and when you’re as poorly coached and poorly quarterbacked as the Chiefs were in 2013 and lose the turnover battle at a near record rate (-24), you’re not going to win a lot of games.

Andy Reid fixes the Head Coach thing and will be good for Alex Smith. He’s not Jim Harbaugh, but for all of his flaws, he’s always been great with quarterbacks. He was able to trade Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, and AJ Feeley for a 2nd rounder each and none of the three did anything even remotely positive for their next team after being traded. Meanwhile, he turned Michael Vick from aging jail bum to a legitimate starting quarterback until last year when age just caught up too much.

Alex Smith stabilizes the quarterback situation and should stabilize their turnover situation (something that generally stabilizes in the long run anyway). The key word is stabilizes. I don’t think Alex Smith is a long term solution. He’s a two year stopgap for a quarterback that the Chiefs hopefully draft in stronger quarterback classes in 2014 or 2015. The Chiefs can make the playoffs this year. The AFC sucks and they have enough talent with the quarterback position stabilized to win 9 or 10 games against a last place schedule in the inferior AFC.

However, if they ever get to the playoffs, Alex Smith will be the limiting factor like he was in San Francisco. Alex Smith is not a franchise quarterback. He’s a stopgap that can win you a Super Bowl if absolutely everything is right and I mean everything like it was in San Francisco, from their league’s #1 scoring defense, to the league’s best top to bottom coaching staff, to all the offensive supporting talent on the offensive line, in the running game, and even in the receiving game.

The Chiefs can make the playoffs with him just like they made the playoffs in 2010 with Matt Cassel. They can follow that model, conservative offensive, good running game, good defense, win the turnover battle, easy schedule. But like with Matt Cassel in 2010, he wouldn’t deserve most of the credit because all that will prove is that Alex Smith is a tremendous upgrade over Brady Quinn and the 2012 version of Matt Cassel and considering those two combined to turn it over 23 times to 8 touchdowns last year, that’s not saying much.

Expect Smith’s numbers to be improved over his 60% completion percentage, 6.6 YPA, and 32 touchdowns to 22 interceptions from 2009 to 2010, but not drastically. The real danger is if the Chiefs do what they did after the 2010 season with Cassel, give him too much credit, and put all of their faith in him going forward. Cassel was not the reason they had success in 2010 and if the Chiefs realized that they could have had either Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick with their late first round pick in the 2011 NFL Draft.

The Chiefs can have success in 2013 with Alex Smith, but it’s important they don’t repeat the same mistake. The 2014 quarterback class is deep enough that the Chiefs can draft a franchise quarterback in the 15 to 22 range and Smith will allow them to ease that quarterback along like the 49ers did with Kaepernick. But he’s not a franchise quarterback and for that reason, as good as the fit is, they overpaid.

Grade: C

Trade for 49ers: This one is much more straight forward. The 49ers weren’t using Alex Smith. While he’s probably top-20 NFL quarterback, he was clearly the 2nd best quarterback on the 49ers’ roster and while it’s nice to have an insurance policy like Smith, at 8.5 million, Smith just wasn’t worth it to the 49ers. And that’s before you even get into the possibility of a quarterback controversy arising the moment Kaepernick has a bad game. It’s just not worth it. If the 49ers had been unable to trade Smith, they probably just would have cut him. That’s not completely realistic. There was a market for him, but getting back a high 2nd rounder and a future mid round pick is a great haul. It’s not quite the Bengals getting a 1st and a 2nd for Carson Palmer, but it’s up there.

In addition to the picks they get in this deal, this trade gives the 49ers tremendous financial freedom. They are expected, once compensatory picks are in, to have 15 picks in the 2013 NFL Draft and I don’t think they have space on their roster for much more than half of those guys. They’ll make some moves. Ordinarily, trading up would be an option, but this is an awful draft class in terms of elite talent. Top-10 picks aren’t going to be worth what they usually are.

So the obvious other option is trading for a big time veteran like Percy Harvin or Darrelle Revis. Adding one of those two could hurt their ability to extend all of their young talent in the future, but when you’re in the position the 49ers are right now, I say you make it work under the cap for the next 2 years and figure out the rest later. Because of this trade, they have the draft picks and financial freedom to get that done and that’s worth so much more than Alex Smith would have been to them.

Grade: A

What this means for the NFL Draft: The most obvious thing it means is that Geno Smith is no longer a candidate for the first overall pick. The likelihood of him being that pick was dwindling in the days leading up to this trade, but that was just in expectation of this move being made. I still argue that if the Chiefs had been sitting there on draft day without a quarterback, they would have had to take Smith. While this is a poor quarterback class and Smith is not worth the #1 pick, their other option would have been taking a quarterback in the 2nd round. Despite recent successes of Kaepernick, Andy Dalton, and Russell Wilson, 2nd day quarterbacks becoming starters is incredibly rare and I think given the nature of this quarterback class, it’s going to be close to impossible this year.

Given what the Chiefs gave up for Smith, it’s also unlikely they use a high pick on a quarterback at all. For one, they don’t have a 2nd rounder so using their 3rd rounder on a quarterback when they have other pressing needs just wouldn’t make sense. Two, Smith is their starter this year. They believe in him. Any quarterback they draft will be a pure backup and I can’t see them taking one until the 4th, probably the 5th round. That will need to bring in another quarterback considering the only other one on their roster aside from the soon to be released Matt Cassel is Ricky Stanzi, who has never taken an NFL snap and couldn’t even get on the field behind the quarterback’s terrible quarterbacks last year. However, they won’t use a premium pick on one until 2014 at the earliest.

Luke Joeckel becomes the obvious choice at #1. He’s the consensus top talent in this draft class, but remember, the Chiefs can still re-sign Branden Albert. If they do that, they could still take Joeckel, but an offensive lineman is not worth the first pick unless it’s a left tackle and since Joeckel would either be playing another position or displacing someone who is already a strong left tackle, I don’t think he’d be worth that pick.

The Chiefs will try like crazy to move down and they could entice a team like Philadelphia to move up for Joeckel, but as I just said, this is a bad year for elite talent so I don’t expect much wheeling and dealing in the top-10, certainly not like last year. If Albert is re-signed, a defensive lineman like Sharrif Floyd or (if healthy) Star Lotulelei makes a lot of sense, as could a cornerback like DeMarcus Milliner. A cornerback hasn’t gone in the top-4 since 1997, but if it’s going to happen, at makes sense that it would happen in a draft like this.

As for the 49ers, they have a lot of picks and not a lot of needs and even if they trade for Harvin or Revis, that will remain the case. As everything currently stands, Tavon Austin makes a ton of sense for them at 31 if he’s still available. With Randy Moss being a free agent and Mario Manningham tearing his ACL, all they are left with at wide receiver behind Michael Crabtree is AJ Jenkins. While they still believe in the future of the 2012 1st round pick, he’s inexperienced and they need depth. Austin would be a perfect fit in their offense based on speed, deception, and misdirection.

Other draft needs include a young defensive lineman. Isaac Sopoaga and Justin Smith are both over 30 and the former is a free agent this off-season, with the latter being a free agent next off-season. They may need a tight end if Delanie Walker leaves as a free agent and a safety if Dashon Goldson leaves as a free agent. Cornerback depth is needed as Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown could both not be back with the team in 2014, Rogers as a cap casualty and Brown as a free agent.

As good as their offensive line is, Jonathan Goodwin at center will be in a contract year in 2013, his age 35 season and they don’t have an obvious successor. He might not even be back next season, owed 3.7 million, though his level of play last season should be enough to save his roster spot. Also expect them to use a mid-round pick on a younger, cheaper backup quarterback who fits their scheme better, someone like EJ Manuel, Matt Scott, or Zac Dysert. The only other quarterback on their roster right now is Scott Tolzien, who completely lacks experience and mobility. Harbaugh’s former quarterback in San Diego, Josh Johnson, could be another option as a mobile backup quarterback.

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Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Free Agents and Candidates for Release

stevenlourie Chiefs

Top Free Agents

WR Dwayne Bowe

Despite having some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL over that stretch, Bowe has averaged 75 catches for 1041 yards and 7 touchdowns per 16 games in his 6-year NFL career and he’s played in 88 of a possible 96 games in his career. It’ll be really interesting to see what kind of production he gets if he goes to a team with a better quarterback. It theoretically should go up, but receivers oftentimes have issues adjusting to a new team and a new offensive system and he probably won’t see the 8.5 targets per game he averaged throughout his career in Kansas City. He also turns 29 in September so age is an issue when you start talking about 4-5 year deals. Still, he’s the top receiver on the open market this off-season.

OT Branden Albert

Not a well-known player, but Albert is a great left tackle when healthy and after years of questions about whether or not the Chiefs should move him to right tackle to back to his collegiate position of guard, Albert finally showed himself to be worth the 15th overall pick (in 2008) these past two seasons. When healthy, he’s probably a top-10 left tackle in the NFL. The problem: he suffered through back spasms throughout most of last season, which tends to be a lingering injury. That could cost him some money on the open market. The Chiefs may even be content going forward with 2012 3rd round pick Donald Stephenson, rather than risking money on Albert.

P Dustin Colquitt

One of five Chief Pro-Bowlers, Dustin Colquitt averaged 46.8 yards per punt, 40.8 net yards per punt, pinned 46 of 83 inside the 20 with just 7 touchbacks and was ProFootballFocus’ 6th rated punter this season. Punters don’t get a lot of money on the open market, but Colquitt is one of the best in the league so the Chiefs let him go, he’ll have suitors. The Chiefs could opt to franchise tag him if they don’t want to tag either of the two aforementioned players.

DT Glenn Dorsey

One of two top-5 mega-busts for the Chiefs (we’ll get to the 2nd later), Dorsey is a decent run stopper, but offers absolutely nothing as a pass rusher. He also missed most of 2012 with calf and knee problems. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of market greets him this off-season, as it looks like his time in Kansas City is done. He’d probably be best off returning to his collegiate 4-3 system, but he might not get a guaranteed starting job in either.

RB Peyton Hillis

Remember when this guy was on the cover of Madden? Good times. Injuries have limited him to 246 carries and 3.6 YPC in the two years since. He might get a job as a 3rd down back and/or short yardage specialist, but he might want to consider going back to fullback, the position he broke into the league as, in order to secure a job in 2013.

S Abram Elam

He wasn’t a starter going into the year, but he ended up playing a significant amount of snaps for the Chiefs and he was solid. He was also solid in previous stops in Dallas and Cleveland. He does turn 31 this year, but if you need safety depth, you could do a lot worse than this guy.

The rest

QB Brady Quinn
TE Jake O’Connell
TE Martin Rucker
G Russ Hochstein
C Thomas Gafford
DT Shaun Smith
OLB Edgar Jones
MLB Brandon Siler
MLB Bryan Kehl
CB Travis Daniels

Candidates for release

DE Tyson Jackson

This is about as obvious as they come. Jackson was the 3rd overall pick in the not so long ago era when top-5 picks commanded ridiculous salaries. Because of that, he’ll be owed 14.72 million in the final year of his contract in 2013 and he’s not worth a third of that. The mega-bust is solid against the run, but has generated 24 total sacks, hits, and hurries in his 4 year career and with everyone who was responsible for drafting him gone in Kansas City, he’s as good as gone unless he takes a massive pay cut. He should generate some interest on the open market, but it’s probably in his best interest to go back to the 4-3 system he played in at LSU.

WR Steve Breaston

This one is also pretty obvious. Breaston was brought in from Arizona by Todd Haley, but he never really lived up to the 5 year, 22.55 million dollar contract he got two off-seasons ago. With Haley gone this year, Breaston barely played, especially down the stretch as he was a healthy scratch during weeks 12-16 and played just 10 snaps week 17. Owed 3.8 million in 2013, he won’t be back. It’ll be interesting to see if he generates any interest on the open market, with a history of injury problems and heading into his age 30 season.

QB Matt Cassel

This one is about as obvious as the first two. Matt Cassel was benched this season for Brady Quinn and has next to no chance of being the Chiefs’ starter in 2013. Andy Reid will want his own guy and he certainly won’t want this turnover machine, who was benched for the incompetent Brady Quinn. He’s only a backup in the NFL and isn’t worth the 7.5 million he’s owed next season. He’ll have to hunt for a backup job on the open market this off-season.

Kansas City Chiefs 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Chiefs

The Chiefs had 5 Pro-Bowlers this year. That might sound baffling, but it’s not. Only Eric Berry and maybe Tamba Hali (who had a down year) didn’t deserve it, but they could have easily been replaced by Brandon Flowers and Justin Houston. Unfortunately for them, football is a team game, not a contest of who has the most Pro-Bowlers. This team was the perfect example of the sum of the parts being greater than the whole. If you’re as poorly coached and poorly quarterbacked as the Chiefs and lose the turnover battle at a near record rate, you’re not going to win a lot of games. I don’t care how many talented players you have.

Fortunately, for the Chiefs, if they can get a solid quarterback and a solid Head Coach, they can compete in the next year or two. They don’t need any potential rookie quarterback to be an immediate savior like Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, or even Russell Wilson. They just need someone to come in and be good, stabilize the turnover situation, make some plays, and the rest should fall into place. The Chiefs also have a few other key needs and a few other key free agents, but among their Pro-Bowlers, only punter Dustin Colquitt is a free agent. Unlike many teams picking #1 overall, they don’t need a complete roster overhaul.

Quarterback

This is a given. Matt Cassel was benched midseason and definitely won’t be brought back at his 7.5 million dollar salary in 2012. Brady Quinn, who took over, looked completely lost on the football field at times, completing 56.9% of his passes for an average of 5.8 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. 2011 5th round pick Ricky Stanzi couldn’t even get on the field ahead of him. They don’t have anything resembling an NFL caliber starting quarterback on their roster and if they have any hopes of even being respectable in 2013, they need to find a new quarterback this offseason.

3-4 Defensive End

You wonder why the Chiefs are where they are. It’s not just the quarterback position. They spent two top-5 picks on 5-technique defensive ends in 2008 and 2009 and neither of them panned out. As a result, they ranked 28th in the NFL in pass rush efficiency despite having two of the best rush linebackers in the NFL in Tamba Hali and Justin Houston. They didn’t get any pass rush from their defensive line.

Chief defensive linemen combined for 5 sacks, 7 hits, and 18 hurries on 1225 combined pass rush snaps, a pathetic 2.7% rate. For comparison, JJ Watt had 21 sacks, 24 hits, and 31 hurries by himself. Dontari Poe in the middle gets a pass because he was a 1st round pick rookie, but they really need help on the outside of their 3 man defensive line (assuming their new coach uses a 3-4, if he uses a 4-3, they’ll need pass rushing defensive tackles). Glenn Dorsey is a free agent this offseason and probably won’t be back, while Tyson Jackson is owed a ridiculous 15 million in 2013 (ah, the olden days when there was no rookie salary cap). He won’t be back unless he agrees to restructure. They need at least one new starter here, preferably two.

Cornerback

I wonder who had the brilliant idea to sign Stanford Routt before free agency even started (after he was waived by Oakland) so they wouldn’t have to pay Brandon Carr the money he wanted as a free agent, even though the Chiefs entered free agency with some of the most cap room in the NFL. Carr turned out to be worth every penny of the 50 million he got in Dallas, while Stanford Routt essentially stole 6 million from the Chiefs, playing poorly when he was on the field and getting cut with 6 million in guaranteed money in his pocket midway through the season. Javier Arenas did a decent job next to stud cornerback Brandon Flowers down the stretch, but they have no depth at the position and Arenas might be best suited as a nickel back.

Middle Linebacker

It’s weird to say, but Jovan Belcher’s murder/suicide opened up a hole in the Chiefs’ starting lineup at middle linebacker. Brandon Siler started a few games in his absence, but he really struggled, especially against the run. Fortunately for them, rush linebacker Justin Houston is so good in coverage (in addition to being an awesome pass rusher) that they really only need their other starting middle linebacker to be a two down run stuffer like Belcher was.

Safety

The Chiefs could use an upgrade at safety next to Eric Berry. Kendrick Lewis was decent in coverage this year, but missed 10 tackles to 25 solo tackles and did not have a single tackle go for a stop (a tackle within 4 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st down, 6 yards in 2nd down, and the full distance on 3rd and 4th down). For his efforts, he was ProFootballFocus’ 81st ranked safety out of 88 eligible. Abram Elam was decent in Lewis’ absence when he got hurt, but the veteran journeyman is a free agent heading into his age 32 season in 2013. There’s a reason the Chiefs were tied to Mark Barron at 11 in last year’s draft before he went 7th to the Buccaneers.

Wide Receiver

Dwayne Bowe is a free agent and there’s a general sense that he won’t be back with the Chiefs. Even if he is, they still need receiver help, but without him, they have a desperate need and unfortunately for them, I don’t think the answer is through the draft. They have some young receivers in the mix like 2011 1st round pick Jonathan Baldwin, 2010 2nd round pick Dexter McCluster, and 2012 4th round pick Devon Wylie. I think they need to let them develop and the solution is not more youth.

However, the fact remains that they need some veterans in the mix to help their new quarterback along. They can’t rely on a group of youngsters who have never proven anything (with the exception of McCluster, who is a decent slot receiver and probably nothing more). They’ll need to attract some veteran receivers without overpaying, which could be tricky. Meanwhile, Steve Breaston will likely be cut. One of Scott Pioli’s many mistakes as GM, Breaston is owed 3.8 million next season and was a healthy scratch down the stretch, playing 9 snaps total from week 12 on.

Running Back

They could use a backup for Jamaal Charles. As good as Charles was, Peyton Hillis and Shaun Draughn vultured a combined 144 carries from him and he’s probably not a 300 carry back. Hillis is a free agent and as much as Romeo Crennel loved him, Shaun Draughn does not deserve to be getting meaningful carries in the NFL.

Offensive Tackle

Dwayne Bowe isn’t the Chiefs’ only big name free agent. Left tackle Branden Albert was one of the league’s best left tackles before getting hurt this year. 3rd round rookie Donald Stephenson was miserable in his absence. If they can’t re-sign Albert, they may want to at least look at other options at left tackle, rather than rolling the dice that Stephenson will become an NFL caliber left tackle with more experience in his 2nd year in the league.

Guard

This is a similar situation to left tackle. Veteran left guard Ryan Lilja moved to center when Rodney Hudson got hurt and in his absence 2nd round rookie Jeff Allen was horrible, making 13 starts and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 78th ranked guard out of 80. Lilja retired after the season. They may want to look into other options and at least add competition, rather than rolling the dice that all he needs is another offseason.

Punter

Dustin Colquitt was one of the Chiefs’ 5 Pro-Bowlers and a bright spot on this team, but he’s a free agent and will need to either be re-signed or replaced.

Kick Returner

The Chiefs ranked 24th in the NFL in kickoff return average as Javier Arenas and Dexter McCluster became bigger parts of the defense and offense respectively and were replaced by Shaun Draughn at kickoff returner. He struggled.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Broncos, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (2-13) at Denver Broncos (12-3)

This is the biggest line of the season, tied with San Francisco/Arizona at -16.5, but unlike that game, this game actually merits a 16.5 point line. This line really can’t be high enough. Kansas City ranks dead last in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA, while the Broncos rank 4th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively in those 3 categories.

If you take the difference between the Broncos’ net points per drive and the Chiefs’ net points per drive, multiply by 11 (the average amount of points per drive), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Denver should be favored by 20.5 and I think it’d take them all the way up to that. The only way the Chiefs can move the ball offensively is on the ground and the Broncos rank 3rd against that. This should be a complete blowout. I just hate laying this many points, so it’s a small play.

Public lean: Denver (60% range)

Denver Broncos 27 Kansas City Chiefs 3

Pick against spread: Denver -16.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 2-13

Net points per drive: -0.90 (32nd)

DVOA: -38.4% (32nd)

Weighted DVOA: -34.9% (32nd)

Kansas City

Studs

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 228 yards (43 after contact) and a touchdown on 22 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 3 attempts

RB Peyton Hillis: Rushed for 101 yards (60 after contact) on 15 attempts, 4 broken tackles

RG Jon Asamoah: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 5 catches for 46 yards on 11 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack on 1 blitz

LOLB Justin Houston: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

QB Brady Quinn: 10 of 22 for 162 yards, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 drop (51.6 adjusted QB rating), pressured on 12 of 26 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 1 of 8, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away)

LT Donald Stephenson: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 61 yards on 6 attempts, 3 penalties

LG Jeff Allen: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 28 yards on 6 attempts

TE Steve Maneri: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 22 pass block snaps

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Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Colts

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)

The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in that first ChuckStrong game and that’s it. They got blown out in Chicago, New York, New England and last week, to a lesser extent, in Houston. Meanwhile, they have just 1 win by more than a touchdown, winning by 17 in Jacksonville. They’ve played close games with the likes of Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, and Cleveland.

As a result, they rank much worse in net points per drive than their record would suggest and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which takes the Colts’ cupcake schedule into account. They rank 24th in net points per game at -0.32. In DVOA, they are 28th and 26th in weighted DVOA. The Chiefs rank dead last in everything and have a net points per drive of -0.97, but we’re still getting line value with them. If you take the difference between their net points per drive and the Colts’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 to the Chiefs’ side for home field, you get that this line should be Indianapolis -4.5, before even taking into account that the Colts are even worse in DVOA than net points per drive.

This makes sense. This line is -7 and as bad as the Chiefs are, the Colts have only beaten one team by more than a touchdown on that was on Thursday Night, when weird things tend to happen. Recently, the spread has really caught up to the Colts. After starting out 6-3 ATS, they are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games, including a big loss in New England and near losses to the Lions and the Titans. The Colts’ two only covers in that stretch were that comeback win against the Lions and a home game against the Bills, which they won by 7 on a return touchdown.

Besides, this is an obvious sandwich situation for the Colts. They just lost to the Texans and have to play them again next week. They’re also basically locked into the 5 seed in the AFC. Why would they get up for the crappy Chiefs? Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs again. They’ll see this as an easy breather game. Teams are 23-39 ATS in that spot in a non-divisional game in between two divisional games. Going off that, teams are 27-47 ATS as road favorites of 3 or more before being home dogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 5-13 ATS in a non-divisional game before being a divisional game.

Ugh, when I was watching the Chiefs not manage a single first down in the first half against the league’s worst defense last week, I decided not to pick them for a significant play to cover another game the rest of the way. Brady Quinn is just too terrible, especially missing Dwayne Bowe, his only good receiver. However, when this line moved from +6 to +7, I talked myself into taking them for a significant play.

This is just not a good spot at all for an overrated Colts team and the public is still all over them (I love fading heavy public leans). And besides, whenever I make teams unbettable and refuse to pick them for a significant play even in a great situation, they seem to cover the following week. Anyone can cover on any given Sunday in the NFL (that’s the whole point of the spread). Brady Quinn is 2-0 ATS in his last two home games and the Chiefs are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games. The Colts, however, are my survivor pick this week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (90% range)

Sharps lean: IND 13 KC 5

Final thoughts: Worth noting this is at +6.5 in LV Hilton. I wouldn’t make it a significant play at +6.5, but getting the full touchdown is too good to pass on. We also have reverse line movement as this has moved from +7 to +6, which is good to see because it means sharps in general are on the Chiefs, but I’m not budging from 3 units at +7. I need the full touchdown and I don’t want to put anything more on the Chiefs. This is the one 3+ unit pick I’m nervous about.

Indianapolis Colts 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA, STL)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +7 (-110) 3 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 30 (-2)

Record: 2-12

Net points per drive: -0.97 (32nd)

DVOA: -40.1% (32nd)

Weighted DVOA: -38.7% (32nd)

After getting shut out by the Raiders, it appears the Chiefs’ winning days are over as they have games against the Colts to close out their season. This puts them in the driver’s seat for a 2-14 record and the #1 pick and it couldn’t have gone to a more deserving team. This team was rarely competitive once they put Brady Quinn under center and they didn’t manage a first down in the first half against a Raider team that had the league’s worst defense coming into the game. I would commend them for the shrewd move in ensuring they lock up the #1 pick, but Scott Pioli and Romeo Crennel are expected to be fired at the end of the season.

Studs

SS Eric Berry: 11 solo tackles, 7 stops, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection

P Dustin Colquitt: 7 punts for 383 yards, 4 inside 20, 0 returns for 0 yards, 51.9 net yards per punt

Duds

QB Brady Quinn: 18 of 32 for 136 yards and 1 interception, 2 drops, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 65.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 14 of 36 drop backs (4 sacks, 4 of 10, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

LT Donald Stephenson: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 1 attempt

RT Eric Winston: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps

C Ryan Lilja: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 5 attempts

WR Jamar Newsome: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 4 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Jonathan Baldwin: Did not catch a pass on 4 attempts on 37 pass snaps

CB Jalil Brown: Allowed 3 catches for 39 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

LE Tyson Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Dontari Poe: Did not record a pressure on 30 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs (2-11) at Oakland Raiders (3-10)

I picked the Chiefs as 6.5 point dogs last week in Cleveland because they were in such a good spot, but I made sure not to make it a huge play because I wasn’t sure how they’d respond once they had a week for the Jovan Belcher situation to settle in. In hindsight, I probably should have avoided the game entirely like I did the week before. However, 2 weeks after the incident, I don’t think that situation is relevant to purely picking games. Obviously, it’s still a relevant situation, but I don’t think it will affect them in any possible significant negative or positive ways on the field.

That’s good because I really like the Chiefs again this week. Their loss last week in Cleveland actually opened up a good situation for them this week. Road dogs are 86-50 ATS off a road loss since 2008. The Raiders, on the other hand, are in a bad situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS in what I call the sandwich situation since 2008, favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or less. For good teams, this game is a breather. For bad teams, well, they shouldn’t be favored. Bad teams have issues covering as favorites, which shouldn’t be too surprising.

Further proving that, the Raiders, who haven’t had a winning season since the 2002 season, are 9-28 ATS as favorites since the start of the 2003 season, their first in a long line of non-winning seasons. Meanwhile, teams are 16-26 ATS as favorites off 4 straight losses as dogs since 1989. The real line for this game, using the net points per drive method, is Oakland -3, which is what this line is (and it holds up to DVOA), but the fact remains: bad teams cannot be trusted to consistently cover.

One more trend works in Kansas City’s favor. Teams are 52-25 ATS as divisional road dogs trying to avenge a same season loss as home favorites. The Chiefs lost as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago, but teams rarely sweep the season series in a divisional matchup when the talent level is equal and I think it is between these two teams. The Chiefs loss as home favorites to the Raiders a few weeks ago also points back to what I was just talking about: that bad teams cannot be counted on to consistently cover as favorites.

I’ve been hesitant to bet heavily on the Chiefs in the past when all the trends were on their side because they’re such a mistake prone team. However, the Raiders are equally mistake prone. They really have no business being favored. The Chiefs can make a bunch of mistakes and still win this game because the Raiders probably will do the same thing too. I also like that the Raiders are a heavy public lean. The public always loses money in the long run. It’s a significant play on the Chiefs.

Public lean: Oakland (70% range)

Kansas City Chiefs 20 Oakland Raiders 16 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (-110) 4 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 30 (+1)

Record: 2-11

Net points per drive: -0.96 (32nd)

DVOA: -39.7% (32nd)

Weighted DVOA: -35.6% (32nd)

The Chiefs would be in the 31st spot if I felt they would lose to the current #31 team, the Raiders, but I don’t. That would get them their 3rd win, before they most definitely lose out against Indianapolis and Denver.

Studs

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 165 yards (38 after contact) and a touchdown on 18 attempts, 2 broken tackles, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt, 1 drop

LG Jeff Allen: Did not allow a pressure on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 6 attempts

Duds

RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 28 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

TE Tony Moeaki: Caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 2 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch

WR Dexter McCluster: Caught 1 pass for 8 yards on 1 attempt on 23 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch

WR Jonathan Baldwin: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 17 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to

MLB Brandon Siler: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, was not thrown on

NT Dontari Poe: Did not record a pressure on 32 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

K Ryan Succop: 2 kickoffs, 51.0 yards per kickoff, 33.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 0/1 FG (missed 27)

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