Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns: Week 14 NFL Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (2-10) at Cleveland Browns (4-8)

One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. It says that teams who finish 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS against the spread since 2002 as favorites of 6 or more. That makes sense. Bad teams like that don’t deserve to be favorites of that much against anyone. The issue with it is a lot of the instances are situations where you don’t expect the team to be finish 6-10 or worse. For example, the Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland week 1 and failed to cover. They will be part of that six and six group when the season is over, but there was no way to know then that the Eagles would be this bad. Same thing with the Lions, who were 6 point favorites against the Rams week 1.

However, whenever you have a situation where a team that will almost definitely finish 6-10 or worse is favored by 6 or more, it’s an obvious fade situation. The Raiders were favored by 6 earlier this year against Jacksonville when they had a record of 1-4 and they won by just 3, failing to cover. Last week, the Jets, Bills, and Lions were all candidates and only the Bills covered. This week, the Browns are 4-8 and will almost definitely be 6-10 or worse at season’s end. Even if they win this game, they’ll be dogs in their final 3 games and will need to pull at least 2 upsets to finish 7-9, and they might not even win this game.

Speaking of the fact that the Browns will be dogs in their final 3 games, teams are 42-63 ATS as favorites of 6 or more before being dogs in their next 3+ games. That makes sense. Once again, as is the case with the six and six rule, bad teams should never be favored by 6 or more and teams that will be dogs in 3 straight are often bad teams.

We are getting line value with the Browns. Using the net points per drive method, this line should be Cleveland -11.5. Cleveland is 20th in net points per drive at -0.15, while Kansas City is dead last at -0.91. If you take the difference and multiply that by 11 (the amount of drives per game, on average) and then add 3 points for home field, you get that 11.5 number.

This is because the Browns have a much better points differential then their 4-8 record at -36. That’s a result of the fact that they really haven’t gotten blown out this season. Only 3 of their 8 losses have come by more than a touchdown and of those 2 losses, they were competitive in each. They lead the Giants 14-0 early, before losing by 14 and they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but had to settle for 5 field goals, while the Ravens had 3 touchdowns and a field goal in a 25-15 Ravens win.

However, they haven’t exactly been blowing teams out either. Of their 4 wins, only one came by more than 6 points and this line is 6.5. Almost all of their games have been close so this one should close as well, so I really like getting the points, even as bad as the Chiefs are, especially because of the six and six rule. That -11.5 line doesn’t make sense when you apply a human element to it, understand where it came from, and why it’s not appropriate in this situation. It also doesn’t hold up to DVOA, which is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. The Chiefs are dead last in that as well, 31st in weighted, but the Browns rank 26th and 24th in weighted, which doesn’t hold up to their 20th place rank in net points per drive.

This would be a bigger play if I knew what to expect with the Chiefs. They won last week just one day after the Jovan Belcher murder/suicide as big dogs. However, there’s no guarantee that will continue this week now that they’ve had a week to sit back and reflect. These types of things tend to go differently depending on the team. The Colts won as big dogs in the week after Chuck Pagano left for treatment, but then got blown out the following week against the Jets, before then going on an impressive run.

The Redskins, meanwhile, lost as big favorites immediately after the death of Sean Taylor, before going on an impressive run and improbably making the playoffs. There’s no way to know how the Chiefs will react this week. They might continue on this run or they might have a huge letdown game like the Colts did. Under normal circumstances, this would be a 4 or 5 unit pick, but these aren’t normal circumstances. Even still, it’s a significant play on the Chiefs.

Public lean: Cleveland (60% range)

Sharps lean: CLE 26 KC 8

Final thoughts: One of two heavy sharps leans this week I’m going to totally disagree with. Sharps have been terrible in the last few weeks anyway.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Cleveland Browns 16 Upset Pick +245

Pick against spread: Kansas City +6.5 (-110) 3 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

Last week: 32 (+1)

Record: 2-10

Net points per drive: -0.91 (32nd)

DVOA: -35.8% (32nd)

Weighted DVOA: -33.8% (31st)

Studs

QB Brady Quinn: 19 of 23 for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, pressured on 123.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 26 drop backs (1 sack, 4 of 5, 1 throw away)

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 127 yards (53 after contact) on 27 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 4 passes for 11 yards on 4 attempts

C Ryan Lilja: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 52 yards on 13 attempts

TE Tony Moeaki: Caught 4 passes for 54 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

LOLB Justin Houston: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 17 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Tamba Hali: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

K Ryan Succop: 5 kickoffs, 3 touchbacks, 70.0 yards per kickoff, 20.8 average opponents starting distance, 2/2 FG (42, 52)

Duds

FS Travis Daniels: 1 assist, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 2 attempts

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Reaction to the Jovan Belcher Murder/Suicide

As I’m sure you’ve already heard, Jovan Belcher, a starting middle linebacker on the Kansas City Chiefs, committed a murder/suicide this weekend, shocking the football world and changing many lives for the worse. I’m not here to talk about the specific incident. There’s nothing really to say that you haven’t heard a million times. What happened is a tragedy. I’ll say that and leave it at that.

I’m here, however, to talk about the public reaction to the incident and some things that have really been bugging me about it. The first is people remembering Belcher as a victim. Belcher is not a victim. Kasandra Perkins is a victim. Literally everyone else closely involved in the situation is a victim except Belcher. Kasandra Perkins was 22 years old and a new mother and now she’s dead. Their newborn daughter is 3 months old and now she has no parents.

The mother of Kasandra Perkins, who watched the incident happen, is a victim, as are the families of Kasandra Perkins and of Jovan Belcher and the people who knew them closely. Scott Pioli, Gary Gibbs, and Romeo Crennel are victims, as they had to watch Belcher kill himself in front of them. Belcher’s teammates, who have to deal with the loss of someone that was not just a teammate, but probably a friend to most of them, they are victims.

Jovan Belcher is no victim. He deserves no RIP. He is the only one in this situation who is not a victim. He’s not an innocent. He’s a killer and a murderer. People who commit murder/suicides are not remembered fondly generally and this situation should not be any different. If he had just committed murder and been arrested and thrown in jail for the rest of his life, he would not have been remembered fondly and this situation should not be any different. The fact that Belcher went to the Chiefs’ facility, of all places, after committing murder to finish the 2nd half of the murder/suicide makes it even worse. By doing that, he was endangering more people’s lives and forcing those who cared about him to watch as he ended his own life, leaving them with undoubtedly painful memories for life.

All of my sympathies go out to the real victims in this situation, but I don’t have any left for a man who would kill the mother of his child in front of their newborn and her mother, go to his place of work with a gun and finish the murder/suicide in front of friends, coaches, and teammates, and leave his 3 month old daughter without parents. Kevin Clancy (KFC), actually wrote about this situation better than anyone I read this weekend, ironic coming from a self proclaimed smut humor site such as Barstool Sports (huge fan, by the way), but KFC did a great job of summing up my exact feelings on the situation. That can be read here.

You can say he was mentally ill and that’s why he deserves sympathy, but isn’t everyone who commits murder mentally ill? Don’t you have to be? There’s no excuse for what he did. Because of this, I’m very, very glad that the Chiefs chose to take a moment of silence before the game in honor of victims of domestic violence, not in memory of a murderer, but there are still too many people forgetting who the real victims are. If you’re interested, there will be a fund for the orphaned daughter opened early this week, as far as I know. There’s no way to donate yet, but as soon as I know how, I’ll tweet it out (@stevenlourie).

The second thing I have an issue with is people saying this game shouldn’t have been played. These people fall into two groups of people, people who literally have their facts wrong and people who think the Chiefs should not be allowed to make their own decisions in how they grieve. I don’t have too much of an issue with the first group of people, people who think the “greedy rich” National Football League MADE them play the game today, unless of course these people are like Michael Silver, who get paid to know things like this and report the facts accurately.

The NFL did not make the Chiefs play this game. At the very least, if they had objected, I’m sure the NFL would not have forced them to play the game. But what was generally reported by (almost) everyone is that the NFL talked with Romeo Crennel, Scott Pioli, the coaches, and the team captains and they decided to continue to play the game as scheduled. Romeo Crennel even said as much in his very well said post-game conference, saying “we’re football players and football coaches and that’s what we do. We play on Sunday.”

That’s why I have an issue with these people thinking this game shouldn’t have been played. If the Chiefs wanted to play the game, let them play. Who are they to tell them how to grieve? They wanted to play football. Very few people out there know what they’re going through and even those very few who do have no right to tell them how to deal with the situation, as I’m sure anyone who has gone through this situation will tell you.

It would have been a major slap in the face to them, the definition of kicking them when they’re down, for the NFL to force them not to play, as some are suggesting should have happened. That insinuates that these grown men are not able to make their own decisions. They are and I have no objection to the one they made.

Do I understand it? Maybe not, but do I have to? Absolutely not. I certainly have no clue how they held it all together and won their 2nd football game of the season today, but I’m not shocked that happened either. This is an emotional situation that I have absolutely no understanding of and I’m definitely in the vast majority there. I’m not going to pretend like I do and that I know better than them. Also, and I can’t confirm this, but it sounds like at least half of the proceeds from the game will go to the fund for the orphaned daughter and to benefit victims of domestic violence, so that’s obviously good.

One of the people who wrote that this game should not go on was Jason Whitlock, a writer for the Kansas City Star and Fox Sports, who I have actually complimented on this site in the past for his article about Roger Goodell’s hypocrisy, forcing the league to play games on Thursday, while simultaneously pretending to care about concussions and injuries. Whitlock actually says in his article about Belcher, “it shouldn’t be their [the Chiefs’] decision. Roger Goodell should’ve made this call,” which absolutely infuriated me. Let them make their own decision.

Whitlock also got into gun control in this article, which leads me to the next thing that really pissed me off: Bob Costas. I hate Bob Costas. I always have. Many people do. The man is incredibly pretentious and insufferable. He always talks as if he is holier than thou and he has the uncanny ability to simultaneously speak from a soapbox while clearly reading off a teleprompter. He adds absolutely nothing to the Sunday Night Football experience and he frequently takes away from it. I’m not even sure he likes football. I wish he was somewhere else because that’s where it feels like he belongs. I’m sure he has a purpose somewhere, but this isn’t it. I make fun of a lot of football commentators, but Costas is the only one I legitimately cannot stand.

However, this week set me over the edge. It wasn’t even the stuff about gun control at first, which has so many second amendment defenders incredibly angry. About 30 seconds into his lecture, I tweeted “Fuck you Bob Costas, you are not fit to talk about the Jovan Belcher situation, go back to sniffing your own farts.” I was really glad this was one of my most retweeted tweets ever because it showed me that people agreed with me. The video can be watched in its entirety here.

That was before he got into gun control. I was just incredibly angry that he looked legitimately happy that this tragic incident happened because it gave him an opportunity to get on his soap box again. He spoke pompously and was clearly fighting to hold back smiles and pure jubilation. He made fun of an old cliché that things like this always help us put things in perspective, by saying that they only put things in perspective long enough until we need another incident to help us put it back into perspective.

He went on to continue with a very arrogant “please” (this is where I lost it actually, he might have well as have “bitch please,” it was that arrogant) and then said “those who need tragedies to continually recalibrate their sense of proportion about sports would seem to have little hope of ever truly achieving perspective,” basically just destroying everyone who has ever agreed with or said what I find to be a very appropriate cliché. And he’s so holier than thou and so much better than people who say that. And he sounded generally excited that this happened so he could point it out. That’s what set me off. He used this tragedy to toot his own horn and talk down to a large portion of people who didn’t do anything wrong. Fuck you.

And then he made a not so smooth transition into gun control, citing Jason Whitlock’s article as some “real perspective.” I say citing, but I pretty much mean that he read the whole thing to us word for word. I’m not even going to tell you where I stand on gun control. That wouldn’t make me any better than him. That’s exactly the point. This is completely the wrong environment for that conversation.

We didn’t tune in to hear about Bob Costas’ political views or anyone’s political views. We tuned in to watch football and hear about stories that relate to football. Bob Costas’ 2nd amendment views were irrelevant to the discussion about Belcher, as are Whitlock’s, but he felt they were so important that we all had to hear them. And even worse, he seemed happy that this tragedy happened so he could promote his political agenda. Again, fuck you.

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Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 13 NFL Pick

Carolina Panthers (3-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-10)

Obviously, I can’t do this write up without mentioning the tragedy that happened Saturday Morning. Early Saturday morning, Chiefs’ starting middle linebacker Jovan Belcher murdered his girlfriend at their house and then came to the Chiefs’ practice facility and committed suicide in front of several teammates and coaches, including Head Coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli.

Obviously, my sympathies go out to his murdered girlfriend (RIP) and their newborn baby, but it’s very, very hard for me to feel sympathetic for Belcher, who died a murderer and a man who destroyed a family and left his newborn baby orphaned. If Belcher had simply committed murder and gotten arrested and hauled off to jail for the rest of his life, we would feel no sympathy for him at all. He would be remembered as a murderer and a criminal and I don’t see why that should be any different now. Yes, it’s clear he was mentally ill, but don’t you have to be to kill someone?

Anyway, there’s simply no way to know how this will affect this game. I really don’t. I don’t even feel good talking about football in relation to this incident. I can’t imagine how anyone will feel playing football a day after this incident and that goes for both the Chiefs and the Panthers. They might not even play the game, though reports say that the Panthers have been told to continue with their travel plans as normal in expectation of a game being played.

Will the Chiefs come out the way the Colts did after Chuck Pagano left the team to undergo chemotherapy (I don’t feel good comparing Pagano and Belcher)? Will the Chiefs come out completely flat and looking like a team that just lost a teammate to a murder/suicide with members of the team and coaching staff watching? How will this affect the Panthers? I don’t have answers to these questions. I don’t think anyone does. I don’t think the players do. We don’t even know if there’s going to be a game.

My original pick was going to be the Chiefs for a unit. Teams tend to do well as road favorites after a win as road favorites, going 50-30 ATS since 2002, a situation the Panthers are in, but teams are 18-10 ATS in their 3rd straight home game as dogs, and 12-6 ATS off 2 losses, a situation the Chiefs are in. Teams are also 32-61 ATS as non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs since 2002 and the Panthers host the Falcons next week.

Non-conference road favorites are 2-8 ATS before being divisional home dogs since 2002, 3-16 ATS if we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size. There’s no line value either way (real line is at Carolina -3), but the fact that Brady Quinn is now the Chiefs’ quarterback may give us some line value, as well as the fact that the Panthers rank 19th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, though just 25th in net points per drive, which is how I compute line value.

I really was just planning on going with the Chiefs because the public is pounding Carolina and the public always loses money in the long run and that 3-16 ATS trend is hard to ignore, but just for a very small play. I’m going to stick with that because I have even less of a clue now. If there was ever a time for a zero unit pick, this would be it and this game should be dead last in confidence pools. We don’t even know if this game is going to be played.

Public lean: Carolina (80% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 9 KC 2

Final update: Sharps didn’t have a clue before the Belcher shooting (picks are due by 2 PM ET on Saturday for LV Hilton, which is barely after the shooting) and I doubt that incident would have cleared things up for them. I still have no clue here.

And by the way, I’m perfectly fine with this game being played. The Redskins played after Sean Taylor’s death and it’s not like the NFL is forcing the Chiefs to play. The Chiefs decided to play because they want to play. Very few people know what they’re going through and even if you do, who are we to tell them how to grieve?

Carolina Panthers 17 Kansas City Chiefs 16

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (-110) 1 unit

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

Last week: 31 (-1)

Record: 1-10

Net points per drive: -1.01 (32nd)

DVOA: -38.3% (32nd)

Weighted DVOA: -36.8% (31st)

Tier 7: Terrible

Studs

CB Javier Arenas: Allowed 4 catches for 16 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 2 stops

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 1 catch for 17 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

C Ryan Lilja: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 29 yards on 8 attempts

RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 14 yards on 4 attempts

QB Brady Quinn: 13 of 25 for 126 yards, 1 interception, 3 throw aways, 1 drop, 62.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 27 drop backs (1 sack, 3 of 10, 1 interception, 2 throw aways)

CB Jalil Brown: Allowed 5 catches for 112 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts, 5 solo tackles

ROLB Tamba Hali: 2 quarterback hurries on 37 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE Tyson Jackson: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 12 NFL Pick

Denver Broncos (7-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-9)

There are two trends that apply to this game, but both of them can be neutralized by the fact that this matchup is divisional. Home dogs are 57-40 ATS off a loss as home dogs since 2002, but that only 13-10 ATS as divisional home dogs after being non-divisional home dogs. When you go back to 2002 to get a bigger sample size, that trend is just 28-27 ATS.

Meanwhile, fading touchdown road dogs is generally a good idea, which makes sense. It’s really hard, no matter who you are, of winning by a touchdown or more on the road. Touchdown plus road favorites are 80-99 ATS since 2002, but only 31-33 ATS in the division. You’d think it would be stronger in the division because it’s tough to go into a divisional opponent and blow them out because they know you so well, making up for some of the talent gap, but that’s not the case. In fact, since 1989, double digit road favorites in the division are 25-27 ATS.

We are getting some line value with the Chiefs. The yards per play differential method (which the Broncos lead) gives us a real line of Denver -12.5, but the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Denver -4, which averages out to be noticeably less than the -10.5 this line really is. At the same time, this line has made a major shift in the last week as it was at -7 a week ago and still the public is pounding the Broncos, noteworthy because the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and need to make money back, which they always do eventually. Bad teams in a divisional matchup always seem to do well in the 2nd half of the season anyway as dogs with 1 win or fewer are 64-35 ATS as divisional dogs after week 9 since 1989.

That being said, I can’t take the Chiefs here. The Broncos have all the momentum, which eats away at the Chiefs’ line value, maybe entirely and the Chiefs have decided to go back to Brady Quinn at quarterback, who is absolutely horrible, worse than Matt Cassel’s. Cassel’s issue was turnovers, but when he avoids them, he’s serviceable. Quinn rarely turns the ball over and has still never been serviceable. In his career, he completes 53.3% of his passes for an average of 5.4 YPA and 10 touchdowns to 12 interceptions. I hate laying this many points on the road, but the Broncos should be the right side. The Broncos are also my survivor pick, as much as I hate taking road teams in survivor. I would be stunned if the Broncos lost this one and for some reason I still haven’t used them.

Public lean: Denver (80% range)

Sharps lean: KC 5 DEN 1

Final update: This is tied for the least picked game of the week in LV Hilton. That’s no surprise. No one wants to lay double digits on the road, but no one wants to take the Chiefs either. I feel the same way.

Denver Broncos 31 Kansas City Chiefs 9 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, SEA, DAL)

Pick against spread: Denver -10.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-9

I used to think the Chiefs were better than the Jaguars, but I don’t really think there’s any difference between the two now that Brady Quinn is going to be the Chiefs’ starting quarterback; in fact, the Jaguars might even be better if Chad Henne can establish himself as clearly better than Gabbert (he had a great game last week, but he’s known for being inconsistent). I don’t know what the Chiefs are thinking by starting Quinn. He only thing he’s going to be good for is making sure they can get a top-2 pick, which maybe answers my question. They’ll almost definitely be looking at a quarterback early, but unfortunately for them, this isn’t really a strong quarterback class.

Studs

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 87 yards (26 after contact) on 17 attempts, caught 4 passes for 31 yards on 5 attempts, 1 drop

TE Tony Moeaki: Caught 4 passes for 73 yards on 5 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

SS Eric Berry: Allowed 2 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts, 13 solo tackles, 1 assist, 9 stops

FS Abram Elam: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 1 attempt, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

P Dustin Colquitt: 7 punts for 352 yards, 3 inside 20, 4 returns for 24 yards, 44.0 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Branden Albert: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 2 attempts

WR Steve Breaston: Caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 2 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 5 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 11 NFL Pick

Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-8)

Almost every year, we have one team go from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Right now, every playoff team from last year has at least 4 wins. That means one of two things. We’re not going to have a team like that this year (only happened 1 other time in the last decade) or either Detroit, New Orleans, or Cincinnati is about to go 1-6 in their next 7 games.

I’m sticking with the latter for now and I think the Bengals are going to be that team. The Bengals still do not impress me, ranking just 20th in rate of sustaining drives differential, with an even yards per play differential. They’ll probably only be favored in 2 of their remaining 7 games, so it’s possible. That would mean that the Bengals will have to get upset by either the Chiefs or the Raiders in the next 2 weeks.

Can they lose here to the Chiefs? As weird as it may sound, they can. Neither of these teams is really in a good spot. The Bengals beat the Giants as home dogs last week, which opens up 3 trends. One, road teams are 7-15 ATS off a win over the defending champs since 2002. Two, away favorites are 74-97 ATS after being home dogs since 1989. Three, teams are 55-71 ATS off of a win as home dogs since 2008. Meanwhile, road favorites off of 3+ straight home games are 23-41 ATS since 1989.

For the Chiefs, home dogs before being home dogs are 29-42 ATS since 2008. They host the Broncos next week. Home dogs are 6-16 ATS off a close loss (1-3 points) as double digit road dogs. Meanwhile, excluding road dogs, teams are 18-45 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-13 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. However, teams are just 5-5 ATS off a Monday Night game in this spot since 1989. That trend is much more relevant with a team coming off a Sunday game.

Neither team is in a good spot, but we are getting line value with the Chiefs. The rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Kansas City -2.5 and the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Cincinnati -3, both of which are less than this line of Cincinnati -3.5. The Chiefs, as bad as they’ve been this year, can be competitive if they can avoid losing the turnover battle like they did last week. If they can do that again this week, they can definitely win and turnovers are inconsistent enough for that to happen. On top of all that, the public is pounding Cincinnati and the public always loses in the long run.

The Bengals aren’t good enough to be road dogs really anywhere as the calculations of real line show. Besides, since 2007, the Bengals are just 10-22 ATS as favorites. Since Marvin Lewis took over in 2003, the Bengals are just 11-24 ATS as favorites of more than 3. The Chiefs are in one good spot as a 1-win team off a loss as dogs by a touchdown or less. Teams are 65-43 ATS in that spot since 2002. I think the Chiefs have a chance to win here (and keep open the possibility that the Bengals go 5-11) and I like the money line of +165. I also don’t trust the Bengals in this spot and as favorites, especially as road favorites, so it’s a small play on the spread.

Public lean: Cincinnati (80% range)

Sharps lean: CIN 12 KC 3

Final update: No change.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

Last week: 31 (+0)

Record: 1-8

I’ve said all along that the Chiefs could be competitive and even win some games if they could avoid losing the turnover battle. They did exactly that last week and took Pittsburgh to overtime, ironically losing on a turnover, their only of the game. They played a very similar game to the Steelers and would have won if not for some costly special teams blunders and penalties, including one for excessive celebration on a touchdown that eventually got overturned and thus never really happened. Still, if they can avoid losing the turnover battle in a few of their games going forward, they can win at least one, which is why they aren’t dead last.

Studs

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 100 yards (43 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 attempts, 1 broken tackle

RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 3 catches for 14 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Justin Houston: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

MLB Derrick Johnson: 11 solo tackles, 1 assist, 9 stops, allowed 4 catches for 28 yards on 4 attempts

ROLB Tamba Hali: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

TE Steve Maneri: Was not thrown to on 5 pass snaps, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

WR Dexter McCluster: Caught 2 passes for 18 yards on 5 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

LE Tyson Jackson: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

K Ryan Succop: 3 kickoffs, 1 touchback, 63.7 yards per kickoff, 27.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/3 FG (22, 46, missed from 33)

RB Shaun Draughn: 2 kickoff returns for 29 yards, 1 fumble

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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 10 NFL Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (1-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)

The Chiefs have yet to lead in regulation through 8 games, the first time a team has done that since 1929 and that team folded after the season. Actually, they were also the first team to do that through 7 games since 1929 as well. However, they aren’t the worst team in the NFL. They don’t rank dead last in either rate of sustaining drives differential or yards per play differential (that distinction belongs to Jacksonville). They rank 24th and 31st respectively in those two statistics and that’s including sometime that the inferior Brady Quinn spent at quarterback.

The reason that those two important statistics say they’re slightly better than their record is their turnover differential. Through just 8 games, they are -20 in turnovers. Even if they tied the NFL single season record of -30 (record is -28 since merger), their turnover differential would be -10 in their final 8 games, two times better than it was in their first eight games. Besides, turnover differentials tend to be inconsistent on a week to week basis, as you can see here. Turnovers aside, they’re not completely horrific.

We are getting line value with them even if you don’t take into account that Brady Quinn spent some time at quarterback. Cassel is the better quarterback and, at the very least, his interception rate will go back to his career average. If you average out those two real line calculations, you get -12 and this line is -12.5. The Chiefs are also in a good spot as road dogs off a road loss, coming off a loss in San Diego this week. Teams are 78-47 ATS since 2008 in that spot. Meanwhile, as well as the Steelers are playing, they’re still not a team built to blow people out and cover a 12 point spread like this without Troy Polamlau, with whom they allow about a touchdown less per game than without over the past few years.

We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean with Kansas City. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

That being said, it’s only a one unit play. Kansas City is too horrible to put more than that on them. They seem to have a knack for being blown out and it’s not just this season. Dating back to 2010, they’ve lost 14 games by 16 or more games, out of 23 total losses. Even from 2010-2011, a stretch in which they went 17-16, they still lost 9 or more by a blowout score. That could happen again here, but I do like the dog. The Steelers are also my survivor pick.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: KC 5 PIT 1

Final update: Sharps lean is exactly what I expected. People don’t like Pittsburgh, but no one really wants to take Kansas City either.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Kansas City Chiefs 16 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +12.5 (-110) 1 unit

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