Chiefs

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chargers, Chiefs

San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-2)

Looks like the Chargers aren’t over their early season woes. They beat two crappy teams in week 1 and 2, but much like last year, they got destroyed once they played a real opponent. Last year they started 4-1, beating crappy teams, most of them by small margins, but lost 6 straight once the schedule got harder. Before last year, they were 14-12 from weeks 1-5 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last week, they’re actually just 4-8 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era and they’re just 3-9 ATS on the road during that time period.

This week, they are road favorites in Kansas City. Road favorites are just 6-13 ATS this year and 7-12 straight up, but I think that might be a fluke and that it probably had something to do with the replacement refs. If the replacement refs were still being used, I think Kansas City would have a big trend on this side, but they aren’t.

The Chargers were road favorites in Oakland week 1 and won, proving to be an exception to what was the rule in the first 3 weeks of the season, but they barely did it despite Oakland losing their long snapper and messing up 3 separate punts, which the Chargers managed to turn into just 9 points. The Chiefs are a comparable team to the Raiders, maybe a little better. The Chiefs are also in a good situation coming off a close road win. Dogs coming off a close win as road dogs are 19-12 ATS since 2002.

This would be a strong lean if we still had replacement refs, but I like the Chiefs this week. The Chargers are not to be trusted in September, especially on the road and especially as favorites. It just wouldn’t an NFL season if people weren’t calling for Norv Turner’s job at the end of September and given what happened last week, they would almost definitely be doing so if the Chargers lost year in Kansas City. The Chiefs seem to have gotten their act together after a rough start to the season, much like they did last year, and this game should resemble the Chiefs’ close win over the Chargers in Kansas City last year.

On top of that, the public is betting San Diego pretty heavily and I like to fade the public when I can. One note, rather than putting 2 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’ll put all 3 on the money line. 1 point games happen about 2% of the time and it’s not worth the extra 10 cents for protection against something that has a 1% chance of hurting me.

Public lean: San Diego (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): KC 12 SD 8

Kansas City Chiefs 24 San Diego Chargers 20 Upset Pick +100 3 units

Pick against spread: Kansas City +1 (-110) 0 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 27 (+0)

Record: 1-2

Defense is key for this team. If they can play good defense, it will allow them to unleash Jamaal Charles and take the pressure off of Matt Cassel. Charles had a huge game last week and looked every bit the back he was in 2010 before his injury, only Todd Haley is no longer the coach so they are now utilizing him properly. However, the defense was horrendous in their first 2 games and holding the secretly not so secretly terrible Saints to 24 points isn’t as big of an accomplishment as it used to be. Overall, the Chiefs rank 26th in yards per play differential.

Studs

RB Jamaal Charles: Rushed for 233 yards (151 after contact) and a touchdown on 33 carries, 1 broken tackle, 6 catches for 55 yards on 7 attempts, 1 drop

RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 41 yards on 8 carries

LOLB Justin Houston: 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback pressures on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 4 stops

K Ryan Succop: 7 kickoff, 2 touchbacks, 67.1 yards per kickoff, 21.6 opponent average start line, 6/6 FG (25, 31, 34, 38, 43, 45)

Duds

WR Steve Breaston: 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 attempts on 33 pass plays, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to

LE Allen Bailey: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

CB Brandon Flowers: Allowed 6 catches for 65 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Saints

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at New Orleans Saints (0-2)

I don’t think anyone really knew how the Saints would respond to BountyGate and the corresponding BountyGate penalties. Would they fall flat? Would they go into eff you mode? Would it not really matter? I leaned more on the positive side because Sean Payton was an offensive coach and Drew Brees could handle the offense by himself basically and because they wouldn’t be changing much scheme wise. I also acknowledged that the Saints had one of the most talented rosters in the NFL and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick in ordinary circumstances. However, here the Saints stand 2 games into the season at 0-2, a record at which teams go on to make the playoffs about 12% of the time. In terms of yards per play differential, they rank a mere 28th.

What’s interesting is that their problems have not really been offensive. They’re not the prolific offense they were last year, but 59 points in 2 games isn’t half bad. The problem is the defense, specifically the pass defense. They’ve surrendered 72 points total and are allowing 12.5 YPA, a ridiculous number considering the next worst team is at 9.7 YPA (for reference, the NFL record for YPA allowed in a season is 8.8, by the 2008 Lions). They also rank 25th in pass rush efficiency.

So what’s happened? Isn’t Steve Spagnuolo a Super Bowl winning defensive coordinator? Wasn’t he supposed to coach up their young pass rushers? Isn’t that his specialty? Wasn’t Sean Payton an offensive Head Coach? It’s not that they miss Jonathan Vilma, because he was terrible last year and replacements Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne are much better than he is. Do they miss Gregg Williams and his excellent motivational speeches?

Well, one of the problems has been injuries. Jabari Greer, their top cornerback, missed the opener and was limited in their 2nd game, while nickel cornerback Johnny Patrick has done the opposite. He left the opener with an injury and didn’t play last week. As a result, Corey White has had to play every defensive snap except for 2. As you would expect, the 5th round rookie cornerback has been torched, allowing 10 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts. He is currently ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated cornerback.

The good news is that Greer should be closer to 100% this week and Patrick will be back, so White will go back to being the 4th cornerback, where he belongs. This secondary is actually pretty talented. Last year, despite a league worst pass rush in pass rush efficiency, they ranked 14th against the pass. All 4 starters allowed less than 60% completion. Being closer to full strength should help their coverage problems, even if the pass rush doesn’t step up.

One other thing that’s in play is their schedule. Neither Carolina nor Washington is a football powerhouse, but they can both pass the ball well and they’re hardly welcoming teams to a team trying to adjust to life without their Head Coach. This week, their opponent is much more welcoming. The Chiefs are also 0-2 and rank one spot lower than the Saints in yards per play differential at 29th. They haven’t been competitive either of their games, something only the Titans can also say, losing both by at least 16 points and last week they were down 35-3 to the Bills after 3 quarters before 2 garbage time touchdowns.

They’ve been just as bad defensively as the Saints have. They’ve allowed 75 points in 2 games. Allowing 40 points in the opener to Atlanta is excusable because they were down their top two defensive players in Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers and facing a very tough offense, but allowing 35 to the Bills at close to full strength is not excusable. Romeo Crennel is a great defensive coordinator, but he’s also the Head Coach, so you have to wonder if he has too much on his plate to coordinate a successful defense like he did last year. This team’s conservative game plan had been scrapped in the first 2 games as they’ve passed 75 times to 57 runs, which has put a lot of pressure on Matt Cassel and they’ve predictably turned the ball over 6 times, 2nd worst in the league.

I don’t give them any chance of stopping Drew Brees and company this week so it will be more playing from behind for the Chiefs and even against New Orleans’ pass defense, I don’t think Matt Cassel will be able to keep up the way Robert Griffin and Cam Newton did, especially with New Orleans being much closer to 100% in this one injury wise defensively. The Saints are also in their 3rd game without Sean Payton and they should get better as the season goes on. Besides, teams that make the playoffs and then start 0-2 the following year are 16-7 ATS since 2003 week 3. Typically, talented former playoff teams get things together by week 3.

I expect that to continue to be the case here as the Saints at home, where they are still 9-1 ATS in their last 10 despite the week 1 loss, should blow out the lowly Chiefs, who have been blown out an awful lot over the last 2 plus years. 11 of their 18 losses over the last 2 plus years have been by 16 or more points, including playoffs. This game should make it 12 of 19. New Orleans is also my Survivor Pick for anyone still alive (namely, people who didn’t listen to me last week when I picked New England). It might sound weird to pick an 0-2 team in survivor, but all of the good teams are either playing each other this week or on the road and I’m pretty confident the Saints will win here at home against the Chiefs. I can’t see them going 0-3.

Three things keep this from being a bigger bet. One is a trend that says that teams in their 2nd straight road game as underdogs off a loss are 57-38 ATS since 2008. The other is just the size of the line. Even though I expect a blow out game, I don’t like betting heavily on big favorites. Three, most of the action is on New Orleans this week. I like to go against the public every chance I get (the public is 13-19 this year and getting killed in games like this where a ton of the action is on one side), but I’m still taking New Orleans for a moderate sized wager.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

New Orleans Saints 37 Kansas City Chiefs 20 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE)

Pick against spread: New Orleans -9 (-105) 3 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 25 (-2)

Record: 0-2

Matt Cassel is a limited quarterback, so their best chances of making the playoffs would have been to follow the solid defense, good running game, conservative offense, easy schedule, don’t make mistakes model they made it on in 2010. That doesn’t work so well if the defense doesn’t play well. Allowing 40 at home in the opener to Atlanta, missing your top cornerback and top pass rusher, is excusable. Allowing 35 to the Bills at full strength is not. The Chiefs have had to abandon their conservative offensive game plan in each of their first 2 games, passing a whopping 42 times to 24 runs last week, and they’ve predictably turned it over 6 times in 2 games. The Chiefs stand at 0-2 and head into New Orleans this week with a good chance to go down 0-3. It’s starting to look like the best Chiefs fan can hope for is their team finally bottoms out this season and takes a franchise quarterback through the draft. Matt Cassel is what he is and he’s owed a non-guaranteed 7.5 million heading into his age 31 season in 2013.

Kansas City Chiefs

Studs

WR Dwayne Bowe: Caught 8 passes for 102 yards on 14 targets on 50 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch

LOLB Justin Houston: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

LG Ryan Lilja: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 51 pass block snaps

RG Jon Asamoah: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 51 pass block snaps

TE Tony Moeaki: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 3 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 5 attempts, 1 catch for 9 yards on 4 attempts on 46 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch

FS Abram Elam: Allowed 4 catches for 77 yards and a 2 touchdowns on 4 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 3 stops

RE Glenn Dorsey: Didn’t record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)

I had the Bills as one of my underrated teams going into the season, thinking that they’d be that team this year that makes the playoffs on the combination of a strong running game, strong defense, decent quarterback play, and an easy schedule. Well, it turns out that only works if your quarterback isn’t horrific and your defense doesn’t give up after going on 21-0 early as the opposing team’s offense scores twice with a short field off turnovers and then returns a kickoff for a touchdown.

At least I got the running game part right. Fred Jackson is out for this one, so the Bills won’t have their one-two punch, but CJ Spiller has proven he can be the one-two punch all by himself. In 6 starts last year, he rushed for 449 yards and 3 scores on 90 carries, adding in another 26 catches for 205 yards and 2 scores through the air. Last week, he managed 169 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against a normally good Jets’ run defense and added 2 catches for 25 yards. I know the Jets were without Sione Pouha, but it was still a very impressive game for him. Remember, he was the 9th overall pick in 2010, so he should be more than capable of carrying the load in Jackson’s absence.

The passing game and the defense weren’t good in the opener, but I think the latter will be better in this one. The Bills may have surrendered 48 points, but 14 of those were on a pick six and a punt return for a touchdown. Of the remaining 34, 14 were allowed early in the game on a short field and after those two scores and the punt return touchdown, the Bills’ defense just gave up.

That they gave up is a concern, but if they can have better luck early in this one, the defense won’t do that and they have a lot of talent, especially on the defensive line, so they should have a good game. Last week, because of their offense’s ineptude, they were on the field the 12th most of any team in the league in terms of time of possession and only allowed the 11th most yards. That’s not as horrific of a defensive performance as the 48 points would suggest.

The passing game is a major concern. All Fitzpatrick has to do, given their good running game and defense, is not make mistakes, but he threw 3 turnovers last week. He had that nice start to last season, but in his last 10 games, he’s completed 216 of 372 (58.1%) for 2288 yards (6.2 YPA), 13 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. He didn’t have a good preseason either and he can’t blame a rib injury this time. I don’t know if he just doesn’t care as much now that he’s gotten paid or if his strong start to last season was a fluke or if opposing defensive coordinators have just caught on to Chan Gailey’s scheme or if it’s all 3, but Fitzpatrick is awful and probably will need to be replaced this offseason.

The Chiefs are similarly built. They can run the ball with Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and they have a good defense. I know they surrendered 40 to the Falcons last week, but they were missing their top cornerback and their top pass rusher and the Falcons might have a top-5 offense this year. Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers will be back this week and the Bills are far from a top-5 offense, so they should be able to have a good defensive game. This will allow them to execute the conservative offense they weren’t really able to in the opener because of their defensive play. This will make life easy for Matt Cassel, who turned the ball over 3 times last week because he was playing from behind for most of the game.

Theoretically, these teams are built the same way. Both can run the football and play good defense and make life easy for their quarterbacks, especially against easier opponents and both teams do have easier opponents this week. However, Cassel has proven that when things are made easy for him, he can avoid turnovers. Fitzpatrick seems to just like to force things even when he doesn’t have to.

Kansas City will probably win the turnover battle and the game here in Buffalo, but it’s not a huge bet because I hate betting on a team winning the turnover battle. Turnovers are just so tough to predict not just on a yearly basis, but on the weekly basis in the NFL and that’s really the one edge Kansas City should have this week over Buffalo. If they can’t win the turnover battle, Buffalo should win this one at home by a small margin. One note, this line is listed at +3 (+100) at some places and +3.5 (-120) at some places. If you can pay for the extra half point, do it. If Buffalo wins, it’ll probably be only by a field goal.

Public lean: Kansas City (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Buffalo covers)

Kansas City Chiefs 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Kansas City +3 (+100) 2 units

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Kansas City Chiefs: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Chiefs

Last week: 24 (-1)

Record: 0-1

It’s a bad sign when your only chance to make the playoff is to follow a strong defense, good running game, don’t make mistakes formula and you allow 40 at home in the opener. I know they were missing their top two defensive players and the Falcons’ offense is awesome, but it’s not a good sign. I don’t feel any different about this team than I did before the game. They’re nothing special and they need a new quarterback. Next up, an easier test in Buffalo.

Studs

LG Ryan Lilja: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures allowed on 37 pass block plays, run blocked for 26 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 carries

MLB Jovan Belcher: 3 solo tackles and 2 stops on 17 run snaps, was not thrown on

Duds

CB Jacques Reeves: 4 solo tackles on 21 run snaps, allowed 5 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts

NT Dontari Poe: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle and 1 stop on 12 run snaps

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Chiefs’ Derrick Johnson, Brandon Flowers, Jovan Belcher all expected to be game time decisions

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

Already missing top pass rusher Tamba Hali with suspension, the Chiefs have 3 other defensive starters who will be game time decisions this week against the Falcons. Hali’s loss is probably going to be the biggest as he’s been their only consistent pass rusher over the past 3 years (though 2nd year player Justin Houston looked great down the stretch in 7 starts last year). However, his loss won’t be the only significant one.

Flowers been a top-8 cornerback on ProFootballFocus in each of the last 3 seasons, something only Champ Bailey and Darrelle Revis can also say. Last year was his worst year as he ranked 8th and though he did play really well, he also surrendered some big plays. He allowed 46 completions on 86 attempts (53.5%) for 667 yards (7.8 YPA), 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, while deflecting 8 passes and committing 5 penalties. Johnson, meanwhile, was ProFootballFocus’ 4th rated middle linebacker last year and Jovan Belcher is a talented two-down run stuffer at middle linebacker.

All of these injuries and potential injuries will make it very hard for the Chiefs to win this week. Their game plan is based on playing good defense, running the ball well, and making live easy for limited quarterback Matt Cassel. Missing so many key guys, it’ll be tough for them to play good defense against an Atlanta offense that looked very good in the preseason, backing up what many people felt before the preseason, that Matt Ryan and company were about to make the leap with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. That’s going to make it tough for the Chiefs to follow their conservative game plan and will force Matt Cassel to have to do more than they would like.

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Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

When I looked at the week 1 games a few months ago, this one stood out to me. There was a reason. I bet the Falcons as road favorites in Chicago week 1 last year and got burned as the Falcons proved that their struggles on the road were more important than their talent edge and lost pretty easily. Obviously, I had that game in mind and I was nervous to bet the Falcons in a similar situation this year week 1, especially in Kansas City, a pretty tough place to play.

The Chiefs aren’t a great team, but they can definitely win some games and pull some upsets if you let them play their game. They have a strong defense which should be even better this season with the emergence of Justin Houston, a budding star at linebacker. The Chiefs have been starved for another pass rushing option after Tamba Hali for years and Houston worked his way into the starting lineup last season and had 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 207 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.6%. It’s no coincidence that they had 20 of their 27 sacks in the 7 games Houston started. His emergence should be able to make up for the dropdown from Brandon Carr to Stanford Routt at cornerback.

On the offensive side of the ball, they don’t have a very good quarterback, but they can run the ball with the best of them with Jamaal Charles coming back and Peyton Hillis coming in at running back behind an improved run blocking offensive line with Eric Winston coming in. They plan to have a very conservative offense and rely on their running game and defense to make Matt Cassel’s life easy. They made the playoffs with this formula in 2010, winning the division with a record of 10-6 and though I didn’t predict it (I don’t think Matt Cassel can keep up the 1.6% interception rate he had in 2010, considering his career rate is 2.9%, excluding 2010), it can definitely happen again in 2012.

However, they’re going to have a very tough time playing good defense and stopping an Atlanta offense that looked very good in the preseason, backing up what many people felt before the preseason, that Matt Ryan and company were about to make the leap with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. The Chiefs are missing Tamba Hali with suspension, which pretty much defeats the emergence of Houston and they could be without Derrick Johnson and Brandon Flowers. Those are their top 3 defensive players. Without their top pass rusher and possibly without their top cornerback and top middle linebacker, they’re going to have a tough time stopping the Falcons, even at home in Kansas City. I don’t think this line fully takes that into account as it’s only moved 2 points from 2-3 months ago to now.

That’s going to make it tough for the Chiefs to follow their conservative game plan and will force Matt Cassel to have to do more than they would like. Besides, in 2010, when the Chiefs made the playoffs, they didn’t do well against good competition like the Falcons almost certainly are. They went just 2-5 against teams that were .500 or better, including playoffs, and 8-2 against teams that were sub .500. One of their two wins came against the early season Chargers week 1, in a game where Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards and their 3 scores came on a long touchdown run, a pick six, and a punt return touchdown. The Chargers avenged that defeat with a 31-0 victory later in the season. The other came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were starting 3rd string quarterback Todd Bauman. Their 5 losses, meanwhile, came by a combined 88 points. I think they could see another big loss to a tough team this week.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (+100) 2 units

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Ankle injury to Chiefs’ Derrick Johnson could be “significant”

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

Already missing Tamba Hali for the opener with suspension, this is not what the Chiefs wanted to hear. According to the Kansas City Star, the ankle injury suffered by Derrick Johnson in the Chiefs’ preseason finale “could be significant” and he could be “doubtful” for week 1. It’s head scratching why Johnson was even out there in a game normally reserved for well…reserves. Missing Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson would obviously be a big loss for them week 1. Hali was ProFootballFocus’ 4th ranked rush linebacker last season and responsible for 12 of the team’s 27 sacks, while Derrick Johnson ranked 4th at middle linebacker. Without those two, their depth at linebacker is awfully suspect.

They may find themselves overmatched defensively against a Falcons offense that has looked incredibly explosive this preseason. Matt Ryan is completing 75% of his passes for an average of 9.2 YPA and 3 touchdowns to 1 interception in the preseason this year and looks poised for a breakout year in a new downfield offense, surrounded by explosive weapons like Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. The Chiefs don’t have the type of offense that can play well from behind so if the Falcons are able to open this up into a shootout, it could be game over for this team week 1.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (standard league, draft day Sunday at 3 PM ET, 2 spots left). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Chiefs’ Tamba Hali suspended for 1 game

stevenlourie Chiefs, News

The Chiefs have one of the best pass rushers in the league, Tamba Hali, but he’s the only good pass rusher they’ve had for the past few years. Hali turned in another strong season in 2011, ranking 4th on ProFootballFocus among rush linebackers and producing 12 sacks, 10 quarterback hits, and 41 quarterback pressures on 459 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 13.7%. However, the Chiefs only had 29 sacks.

In 2010, he had 19 sacks, 16 quarterback hits, and 68 quarterback pressures on 583 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 15.9%. The Chiefs did manage 46 sacks, including playoffs, but nickel rusher Wallace Gilberry with 7 was the only other player on the team with more than 3. In 2009, he had 9 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 449 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 12.9%, but only Gilberry with 6 had more than 2 and the Chiefs managed 26 as a team.

They have an emerging pass rusher in Justin Houston opposite him. He played every snap except one from week 11 on and had most of his production in those 7 games, with 6 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures on 151 pass rush snaps, a rate of 12.6%. It’s no coincidence that the Chiefs had 20 of their 29 sacks in those 7 games.

However, the bad news for the Chiefs is that they’ll have to play their week 1 game without Tamba Hali, after he was suspended for a surprisingly somehow previously unreported marijuana arrest. This is will really hurt their pass rush and is a huge blow to their defense. It really hurts their chances of pulling off an upset victory at home against a talented Falcons team that does struggle on the road.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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