Colts

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 4 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (1-2) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) at London

Both of these teams come to London much healthier than they’ve been all season. Defensive end Jared Odrick remains out for the Jaguars for the second straight game, but they get back cornerback Prince Amukamara, left tackle Kelvin Beachum, and center Brandon Linder this week, after all three missed last game. The Colts, meanwhile, are without nickel cornerback Darius Butler, edge rusher Trent Cole, and #2 wide receiver Donte Moncrief, but have both of their starting cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Patrick Robinson healthy for the first time all year, while top defensive lineman Henry Anderson is entering his 2nd game back from a late 2015 torn ACL.

The Colts’ defense still isn’t good and they still have an aging team and one of the worst rosters in the NFL outside of the quarterback position, but the Jaguars are also far from a great team. The Colts at least have Andrew Luck and being a much more veteran team should help them here in London. On top of that, favorites are actually 9-3 ATS in the last 12 international games, as better teams tend to do a better job of handling a weird situation. I’m not confident in the Colts, but as long as the line stays under a field goal, I like their chances of covering.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Colts, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (0-2)

The Chargers’ offense continues to be bitten by the injury bug. After finishing last season with the 8th most adjusted games lost to injury of any offense in the league, the Chargers lost #1 wide receiver Keenan Allen for the season week 1 and running back Danny Woodhead (the Chargers’ leader in yards from scrimmage in 2015) for the season with a torn ACL week 2. They will also be without veteran tight end Antonio Gates in this one, while rookie defensive end Joey Bosa (the 3rd overall pick in the draft) remains sidelined with a hamstring on defense.

Despite that, they still won at home last week, by the final score of 38-14 against a capable though mediocre Jaguars team. They’re more talented overall than last season, so they can withstand injuries better. Plus, even with all of their injuries last season, they outgained their opponents by 158 yards on the season and went 4-12 largely as a result of bad luck and things that are easy to clean up (close losses, long return touchdowns, missed tackles on special teams).

The Colts are not much better than the Jaguars and they too are dealing with injuries. While Vontae Davis, Henry Anderson, and Trent Cole are expected to return from injury this week, they could be limited; Davis and Anderson are making their season debuts, the latter after a late 2015 ACL tear. They’re also still without #2 and #3 cornerbacks Patrick Robinson and Darius Butler and will additionally be without starting wide receiver Donte Moncrief and right guard Denzelle Good with injury this week. An old team in general, especially on defense, the Colts have one of the weaker rosters in the NFL, outside of the quarterback position. This game is in Indianapolis, but the Chargers have covered in 7 of their last 9 road games. The Chargers don’t get great home crowds, so it makes sense that they would be travel well (they’re also 3-6 ATS in their last 9 home games).

On top of that, the Colts could be distracted with a game in London on deck; teams are just 6-18 ATS all-time before a game in London. It makes sense that a long trip would serve as a big distraction. I wish this line hadn’t moved from the full field goal it was at last week on the early line. We lost all line value as a result of the Chargers’ big win last week. The line is now between 1-2 points. It doesn’t really matter what this line is as long as it’s under 3, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. I think the Chargers will win straight up, but not enough to take them confidently as favorites of less than a field goal. If you need something to bet on in this game, the money line is a good idea at +110. This game seems like a toss up at worst for the Chargers.

San Diego Chargers 27 Indianapolis Colts 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Colts, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

Coming into the season, I thought the Colts were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They get Andrew Luck back after an 8-8 2015 season, but their passing offense wasn’t the problem last season, as Matt Hasselbeck was serviceable until the last couple weeks of the season and actually outplayed Luck statistically. Their defense took a step back from the season before and they struggled mightily running the ball and protecting the quarterback. Their running backs and offensive line remain a problem and the defense could take another step back. They lost top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency and have the oldest defense in the league, which looks like one of the worst in the league on paper, especially with Trent Cole, Henry Anderson, Patrick Robinson, and Vontae Davis all out with injuries. Luck’s obviously a big re-addition, but it’s probably not enough for this team to get back to the playoffs.

However, I also thought the Broncos were overrated coming into the season. They finished last regular season just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential and might not have even made the playoffs if not for an unsustainably good record in games decided by a touchdown or less, 9-3. This off-season, they lost two defensive starters in Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan, who were not replaced, as well as talented guard Evan Mathis. They’re starting a 2nd year 7th rookie pick at quarterback, one of the least qualified week 1 starting quarterbacks in years, and have underwhelming talent around him on offense, especially with Demaryius Thomas dealing with a limiting hip injury. Even if they do win here, it could easily be another close game for a team who has won 12 of their last 16 wins by 7 points or fewer (including last post-season), relevant considering this line is 6.5. That seems way too high to me, even with the Colts banged up.

The Broncos won last week at home against a tough Carolina team and looked good doing it, but easily could have lost if not for a missed field goal at the end of the game (or if not for a timely Gary Kubiak timeout, which forced Graham Gano to re-kick after making the first one). Besides, defending Super Bowl champions tend to do well week 1. In the last 10 instances, Super Bowl Champions who open at home on a Thursday Night are 8-1-1 ATS, but the previous 9 teams are just 2-7 ATS the following week. Opening as Super Bowl champions is a very emotional game, so it makes sense teams would play well, but it’s also hard to carry that kind of performance into the following week.

Teams are also 48-74 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued off of a big home win against a superior opponent. At the very least, the Broncos are overvalued here at 6.5, especially considering this line was at just 3.5 a week ago. I think a line of 4 or so would have much more appropriate. The Broncos also have a tougher opponent next week, as they head to Cincinnati, while the Colts host the Chargers. Underdogs are 80-56 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Coming off an emotional, close win, the Broncos could easily not be focused for an inferior opponent, especially with another tough game on deck, while the Colts figure to be focused, facing the defending champions, with an easier home game on deck. I think it’s very unlikely that the Broncos win by more than 7. I’ll take 6.5 if I have to, but it’d be a bigger play at 7. The money line at +230 is also a good value if you like to take bigger risks.

Denver Broncos 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts: 2016 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

This line is at 3, which suggests these two teams are even. I disagree. The Lions finished last season just 7-9, but won 6 of their final 8 games and it easily could have been 7 if not for the longest game winning Hail Mary in NFL history in their loss to the Packers. Calvin Johnson is gone, but they added Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin and their offense was great down the stretch last season, after Jim Bob Cooter took over as offensive coordinator mid-season. On defense, they get DeAndre Levy back from injury, after their talented linebacker missed essentially all of 2015. They have a good chance to continue playing well this season and push for a playoff spot.

The Lions’ schedule down the stretch last season was relatively easy (aside from Green Bay), so they’re unlikely to continue winning 3 out of every 4 games, but I don’t think the Colts are a tough opponent, especially with their top-2 defensive players, Vontae Davis and Henry Anderson, missing the start of the season with injury. The Colts get Andrew Luck back, but their passing offense wasn’t the problem last season, as they went 8-8. Their defense took a step back from the season before and they struggled mightily running the ball and protecting the quarterback.

Their running backs and offensive line remain a problem and the defense could take another step back. They lost top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency and have the oldest defense in the league, which looks like one of the worst in the league on paper. They’re going to have a tough time stopping anyone with Henry Anderson and Vontae Davis. I like the Lions’ chances of at least pushing as 3 point underdogs, as 1 of 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, and I think they can also win the game outright.

Detroit Lions 27 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts 2016 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Season Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

Quarterback

Given that they had gone 12-0 in division play in 2013 and 2014, winning the division both times, it looked inevitable that the Colts would win the division again in 2015. Instead, the Colts lost 2 divisional games and finished 8-8, in 2nd place in the AFC South. It wasn’t that the division got tougher as the trio of Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee was still not a formidable one. The Colts just had a much worse season overall, falling from 5th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 to 20th in 2015.

The biggest difference was on offense, where they fell from 10th to 24th, and the obvious reason why is the quarterback play. Franchise quarterback Andrew Luck missed 9 games and was limited in many others with a variety of injuries, including a bruised rotator cuff in his shoulder, broken ribs, and ultimately a lacerated kidney that ended his season. Even when on the field, Luck did not play well at all, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.

In fact, when backup Matt Hasselbeck came in for the injured Luck, it seemed to stabilize the offense, as he completed 60.9% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. However, the 39-year-old Hasselbeck was completely beat up by the end of the season, sapping his play, ending his season week 16, and ultimately ending his career, as the 18-year NFL veteran retired this off-season. Any way you look at it, it was a lost season for Andrew Luck in 2015 and, as a result, it was a lost season for the Colts in an otherwise completely winnable division.

However, there’s a ton of bounce back potential with Luck as well and, as a result, a ton of bounce back potential for the Colts in an improved, but still very winnable division. Luck is just going into his age 27 season and the 2012 #1 overall pick was a top-12 quarterback on Pro Football Focus in each of his first 3 seasons in the league, including 9th in 2014. Going into the final year of his rookie contract, the Colts still have a ton of faith in him, making him the highest paid player in the league by giving him a 5-year, 123 million dollar extension ahead of the final year of his rookie deal this off-season.

The Colts are obviously betting heavily that Luck will stay healthy in 2016, so much so that they don’t really have a viable backup option. Hasselbeck was okay in 2015, but he retired, leaving the Colts with ex-Green Bay backup Scott Tolzien and 2014 undrafted free agent Stephen Morris. Morris has never thrown an NFL pass and is still regarded as very raw, only going into his age 24 season. He was so raw last season that the Colts brought in street free agents Ryan Lindley and Josh Freeman to play quarterback week 17 last season when Hasselbeck was hurt, with a possible playoff spot on the line.

Tolzien, meanwhile, struggled mightily in limited action as Rodgers’ backup in Green Bay, completing 61.5% of his passes for an average of 7.97 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions, since going undrafted out of the University of Wisconsin in 2011. He spent most of the past 2 seasons as the #3 quarterback in Green Bay, after struggling so much in Rodgers’ absence in 2013. The Colts will pray that Luck stays healthy this season and long-term, but he’s got a very good chance to have a bounce back year and potentially take the Colts back to the playoffs.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

With the idea of keeping Luck healthy long-term, the Colts prioritized the offensive line this off-season. They only allowed 37 sacks last season, but have consistently given up pressure and hits at too high of a rate throughout Luck’s 4-year career and have always struggled to open up holes in the running game. The Colts used a 1st round pick on Alabama center Ryan Kelly, a 3rd round pick on Texas Tech offensive tackle Le’Raven Clark, and a 5th round pick on North Dakota State’s Joe Haeg. Kelly will be plugged in immediately as a starter and, at the very least, should help open up holes in the running game. Center has been a big problem position for the Colts for years and Kelly has a good chance to be one of the best centers in the league in 2-4 years.

Clark, meanwhile, will compete for a starting job at right tackle, as could Haeg. Right tackle Joe Reitz wasn’t bad last season, grading out above average on 950 snaps, primarily playing at right tackle, but also playing at left and right guard in a few games. Prior to 2015, he had graded out above average in limited action as a reserve in 2013 and 2014, on 149 and 277 snaps respectively. The Colts re-signed him to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal this off-season as a free agent, so they clearly value him as a starting option, but he’ll face competition and is not the long-term solution, going into his age 31 season.

At right guard, Hugh Thornton played the most snaps last season, but was benched this off-season for 2nd year player Denzelle Good. That was probably the right decision, considering Good flashed on 274 snaps as a 7th round rookie in 2015, while Thornton has struggled in 3 seasons in the league. He’s made 32 starts in those 3 seasons, since being drafted by the Colts in the 3rd round in 2013, grading out below average in all 3 seasons, including 60th out of 81 eligible in 2015. Good, meanwhile, has upside, but is far from proven and could also struggle. He was just a 7th round pick in last year’s draft.

Fortunately, things are a lot better on the left side of the offensive line. Left guard Jack Mewhort had a breakout 2nd season in the league, finishing 9th among guards on Pro Football Focus. He wasn’t bad as a 2nd round rookie in 2014 either, grading out slightly above average, and has already made 30 starts in 2 seasons in the league. He’s seen some time at right tackle, but he seems to have settled in at left guard. He suffered a scare this off-season and it was originally reported he tore his ACL, but he seems to have escaped with a 2-4 week injury and is merely questionable for the start of the season. That’s obviously great news for the Colts.

Left tackle Anthony Castonzo, meanwhile, has been the constant on this offensive line since the Colts drafted him in the 1st round in the 2011 NFL Draft. He’s made 73 of a possible 80 starts at left tackle since then and remains there again in 2016. Despite the struggles of the Colts’ offensive line over that time period, Castonzo has actually played pretty well. He’s been a top-36 offensive tackle on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 4 seasons, finishing last season 20th and maxing out at 12th in 2014. It’s an improved offensive line, but one that still has problems on the right side.

Grade: B

Running Backs

As I mentioned, the Colts have had issues opening up holes on the ground over the past few seasons. It’s part of why they struggled running the ball in 2015, averaging 3.63 YPC, 31st in the NFL, but lead back Frank Gore is also very much to blame. Spending the first 10 seasons of his career with the San Francisco 49ers, Gore came over to the Colts last off-season on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal. However, the aging back very much looked his age in 2015, turning 260 carries into just 967 yards and 6 touchdowns, an average of 3.75 YPC.

Gore’s 12,040 rushing yards rank 15th all-time and he could be bound for Canton. However, he’s also going into his age 33 season with 2702 career carries. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade and a half, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 career carries. It’s also worth noting that Gore’s worst football came at the end of the season, which could be a sign that Gore is just out of gas. In the final 8 games of the season, he averaged 3.22 yards per carry on 140 carries, after averaging 4.30 yards per carry on 120 carries in the first 8 games of the season.

Even when he was struggling, the Colts kept giving him the lion’s share of the carries, as no other Colts running back had more than 31 carries. At the very least, Gore needs to be part of a timeshare at this stage in his career, but the Colts inexplicably did not do anything to upgrade the backup running back situation. Veteran journeymen Robert Turbin and Jordan Todman will compete with rookie undrafted free agent Josh Ferguson for the #2 running back job, likely meaning they plan for Gore to get another 250+ carries. That seems like a mistake and should limit their offense.

Turbin has rushed for 1127 yards and 1 touchdown on 281 carries in his career (4.01 YPC), while adding 50 catches for 450 yards and another 2 touchdowns through the air. Todman, meanwhile, has rushed for 472 yards and 3 touchdowns on 115 carries in his career (4.10 YPC), while adding 40 catches for 314 yards and another 2 touchdowns through the air. The Colts like Ferguson and, with Gore as old as he is, there’s a very good chance that Ferguson is seeing a significant role by late in the season. That would probably not be a good thing for the Colts, considering the entire league just let him go undrafted. He’s not the type of guy you want to be relying on behind an out-of-gas veteran and two mediocre journeymen.

Grade: C-

Receiving Corps

Frank Gore is one aging veteran that the Colts signed last off-season that didn’t work out. Another is wide receiver Andre Johnson, who the Colts signed to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal, after he was released by divisional rival Houston. Like Gore, Johnson is a possible future Hall-of-Famer, but, like Gore, Johnson was an aging veteran who was out of gas in 2015. The Colts released him one-year and 7.5 million into that 3-year deal, ahead of his age 35 season in 2016.

Unlike with Gore, the Colts have a obvious internal replacement for him, as 2015 1st round pick Phillip Dorsett figures to have a much bigger role in his 2nd year in the league. Because of the addition of Johnson, Dorsett began the year as the #4 receiver and suffered a broken ankle mid-season that really hurt his chances of beating out Johnson for playing time, even as bad as Johnson was playing. Ultimately, Dorsett played just 215 nondescript snaps as a rookie, but he still has plenty of upside going into his 2nd year in the league.

Dorsett isn’t the only young wide receiver the Colts have, as Donte Moncrief was a 3rd round pick in 2014. Even with the additions of Johnson and Dorsett in the off-season, Moncrief played 836 snaps in his 2nd year in the league in 2015, after flashing on 421 snaps as a rookie. Moncrief’s numbers weren’t great or anything, but part of that was because of the Colts’ quarterback situation and he still graded out above average for the 2nd straight season, finishing 40th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus. Now going into his 3rd year in the league, Moncrief could have his best year in the league. He and Dorsett will battle for the #2 job behind veteran TY Hilton, but Moncrief appears the clear favorite right now, pushing Dorsett into the #3 role.

Hilton is also coming off of a less than stellar statistical year, at least by his standards, as a result of the Colts’ quarterback situation. However, he still caught 69 passes for 1124 yards and 5 touchdowns. The fact that that’s a quiet year from him just shows you how good he is when he’s at his best. The 2012 3rd round pick has topped 1000+ yards in 3 straight seasons, maxing out with 82 catches for 1345 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2014. He’s graded out 34th, 10th, and 17th among wide receivers in 2013, 2014, and 2015 respectively. He was well worth the 5-year, 65 million dollar extension the Colts gave him last off-season, ahead of what would have been his contract year, and he could have another 1300+ yard year with Luck healthy in 2016.

Hilton isn’t the only pass catcher the Colts added in that 2012 draft (the same one in which they added Luck), as they used a 2nd round pick on tight end Coby Fleener and a 3rd round pick on tight end Dwayne Allen as well. Unlike Hilton, the Colts did not lock their two tight ends up ahead of their contract years. The Colts brought Allen back on a 4-year, 29.4 million dollar deal this off-season, but watched Fleener sign a 5-year, 36 million dollar deal with the Saints. It’s was always assumed that the Colts would not be able to re-sign both of them, but it’s very surprising that Allen got as much money as he did, considering he was coming off of a down year in 2015.

Allen was Pro Football Focus’ #2 ranked tight end as a rookie in 2012, their 9th ranked tight end in 2014, and had graded out above average in each of the first 3 seasons of his career prior to 2015, excelling as a run blocker at 6-3 265. However, he’s missed 21 games with injury over the past 3 seasons and injuries really seemed to take a toll on his play in 2015, as he fell to 62nd out of 67 eligible tight ends on Pro Football Focus. The Colts are obviously betting on a bounce back year and he definitely has bounce back potential if he can stay healthy. With Fleener gone, Jack Doyle will be the #2 tight end. The 2013 undrafted free agent flashed on 341 snaps last season with Allen hurt. WIth a young, talented group of wide receivers, the Colts’ receiving corps is still solid despite losing Fleener.

Grade: B

Defensive Line

In addition to a significant drop-off offensively from 2014 to 2015, the Colts also saw a significant drop-off defensively from 2014 to 2015, falling from 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 to 14th. The fix on defense is not nearly as easy as the fix on offense is, as the Colts’ defense doesn’t have an Andrew Luck caliber player returning from injury to save them. Their drop-off from 2014 to 2015 was largely because this is an aging, veteran-led defense that had several players show significant decline from 2014 to 2015. With the focus of their draft being the offensive line, the Colts didn’t add much defensively through the draft and still have very few promising young defensive players.

One promising young player is 2015 3rd round pick Henry Anderson out of Stanford, who finished 12th among 3-4 defensive ends on Pro Football Focus on 453 snaps, before his promising rookie year was cut short by a torn ACL suffered in November, ending his season after 9 games. He’s reportedly not a lock to return by week 1 and might have to wait until his 3rd year in the league in 2017 to break out as an every down defensive end in the Colts 3-4, as he flashed the ability to do as a rookie.

Anderson is not the only rookie who played a significant role on the Colts’ defensive line in 2015, as 5th round pick David Parry played 657 snaps, primarily serving as a nose tackle in base packages at 6-1 308. Parry was not nearly as good as his former Stanford teammate Anderson though. In fact, he was one of the worst interior defensive linemen in the league last season, finishing 117th out of 123 eligible on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 2nd year in the league, Parry will have plenty of competition for his job from 2014 undrafted free agent Zach Kerr, who flashed on 320 snaps last season, and 4th round rookie Hassan Ridgeway. The 6-1 326 pound Kerr has more of a traditional nose tackle’s build than Parry (6-1 308) or Ridgeway (6-3 303) and should be considered the early favorite at what should again be a position of weakness for the Colts on the nose.

Anderson is not the only Colts’ defensive lineman to be coming off of a significant injury either, as veteran 3-4 defensive end Arthur Jones is coming off of an ankle injury that cost him his entire 2015 season. Jones signed a 5-year, 33 million dollar deal with the Colts two off-seasons ago, but has been limited to just 9 games in 2 seasons by a variety of injuries. Jones also struggled mightily on 371 snaps in 2014 in the 9 games he did play, finishing 40th out of 47 eligible 3-4 defensive ends. As a result, Jones had to take a 2 million dollar pay cut to keep his roster spot for 2016. Jones was Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2013, which is how he got such a big contract, but he’s graded out above average just once in 6 years in the league and isn’t going to get better, going into his age 30 season, coming off of a major injury. Making matters worse, he’s suspended for the first 4 games of the season after failing a drug test.

With Anderson and Jones up in the air with injuries and/or suspension, expect veteran Kendall Langford to lead this defensive line in snaps again, after grading out above average on 851 snaps making all 16 starts in 2015. Langford hasn’t missed a game in 8 years in the league, since going in the 3rd round in 2008, the longest active consecutive games streak by a defensive lineman. Langford has been an average starting defensive lineman more or less, grading out above average in 4 of 8 seasons in the league.

He’s spent 5 years of his career in a 3-4 and seems to be a better fit in that system, grading out above average in 3 of the 5 seasons in which he’s played 3-4 defensive end. He was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2009 and 2010 and finished 16th among 3-4 defensive ends in 2015. Going into his age 30 season, his best days are likely behind him, but he should have another solid season as a starter for a team that desperately needs him to. With Anderson and Jones dealing with injuries, Ridgeway, the 4th round rookie, could also see snaps at defensive end as a rookie. It’s a thin defensive line unless Anderson can come back healthy from his torn ACL.

Grade: B

Linebackers

The Colts also have a trio of 30+ year old veterans at outside linebackers, as Trent Cole, Robert Mathis, and Erik Walden are going into their age 34, age 35, and age 31 seasons respectively. All three are also going in the final years of their contracts, so it’s surprising that the Colts didn’t use a higher pick on the position in the draft, just adding Maine’s Trevor Bates in the 7th round. 2014 6th round pick Jonathan Newsome flashed on 397 snaps as a rookie, but off-the-field issues limited him to 346 nondescript snaps in 2015 and he was let go this off-season, following a marijuana arrest. That leaves Bates as the only young edge player on the roster and he’s a clear #4 outside linebacker at the most.

Cole, Mathis, and Walden played 533, 558, and 796 snaps respectively in 2015 and should be around those snap totals again in 2015. Cole was the best of the bunch, grading out 34th among edge defenders on Pro Football Focus, but the other two graded out below average. Cole has graded out above average in all 9 seasons of Pro Football Focus’ history and his 88.5 career sacks in 11 seasons in the league are 44th most all time, but he’s going into his age 34 season so the end is near for him. He’s likely going into his final season in Indianapolis and possibly his final season in the league.

Mathis has had a great career as well, as his 118 career sacks are 20th all-time and 5th among active players, giving him at least an outside shot at the Hall of Fame. He’s graded out above average in 6 of 9 seasons in Pro Football Focus history, but missed all of 2014 with a torn achilles and was not nearly the same in 2015. He’s also a year older than Cole, going into his age 35 season. Like Cole, he’s very possibly in his final season with the Colts and in the league.

Walden is the youngest of the trio and lead the position in snaps played last season, with Mathis and Cole best suited for situational work at this stage of their careers, but he’s also the worst of the trio and no spring chicken himself. He has never once graded out above average in 8 years in the league, since getting drafted by the Packers in the 6th round in 2008. He’s going into his age 31 season and is highly unlikely to be better going forward.

Starting middle linebacker D’Qwell Jackson is also in the over 30 club, as he’s going into his age 33 season. His age has really shown in recent years, as he’s graded out below average in 4 straight seasons, including 2015 season in which he finished 62nd out of 97 eligible linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Going into his 33 season in the league, Jackson simply isn’t a reliable starter anymore. Fellow starting middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman was easily the better of the two last season and was arguably the Colts’ best defensive player, finishing 2nd among linebackers on Pro Football Focus, but he signed with the Bears as a free agent, leaving the Colts with a big hole to fill next to the aging Jackson.

Sio Moore is penciled in as the starter. He played just 69 snaps last season, but looked like a future star as a rookie in 2013, as the 3rd round pick finished as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 4-3 outside linebacker. However, he struggled in 2014 and then fell out of favor with a new coaching staff in Oakland, which got him traded to the Colts last off-season. The Colts then moved him inside to middle linebacker and never played him, but he’s still only going into his age 26 season and has bounce back potential this season. It’s a weak linebacking corps overall though.

Grade: C

Secondary

Cornerback Vontae Davis is the Colts’ best defensive player, but he had a down year last finishing, falling to 29th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, after finishing in the top-4 in both 2013 and 2014. He had bounce back potential going into 2015, as he’s graded out above average in 6 of 7 seasons in the league and is still only going into his age 27 season, but he’s expected to miss the first month or so of the season with an ankle injury, which forced the Colts to bring in veteran free agent Antonio Cromartie in mid-August.

With Davis injured, Antonio Cromartie figures to take over his starting job and play every down at cornerback opposite fellow free agent acquisition Patrick Robinson. Cromartie is not the same player he used to be though, going into his age 32 season, and looked done last season, finishing 84th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s also graded out below average in each of the past 3 seasons, a trend that figures to continue into 2016. There’s a reason he was available so late in the off-season. He’s a huge downgrade from Davis and makes this defense even older and less talented. They are going to have serious problems stopping anyone with Davis injured.

Patrick Robinson, meanwhile, comes over from San DIego on a very reasonable 3-year, 14 million dollar deal. A 2010 1st round pick, Robinson was largely a bust in 5 seasons in New Orleans, largely because of injuries, as he missed 22 games in those 5 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked cornerback in 2011, but that was not the norm for him in New Orleans, as he graded out above average just twice in 5 seasons in the league. However, in his one-year in San Diego, he played all 16 games (starting 10 of them) and finished 30th among cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus. He’s a talented player when healthy and a solid pickup at a position of need for the Colts, but he’ll be overmatched as the #1 cornerback to start the season.

Darius Butler remains as the slot cornerback, despite struggling mightily in 2015, grading out 86th out of 111 eligible cornerbacks on 576 snaps. He’s graded out below average in 5 of 7 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2009, including each of the last 3 seasons. He’s already going into his age 30 season, so I don’t expect him to be any better this season. He saw some action at safety earlier this off-season, so if Cromartie plays well enough in Davis’ absence, the Colts could move Butler to safety mid-season.

Speaking of safety, the Colts did use one high pick on their defense this year, adding Clemson safety TJ Green in the 2nd round. He might not play right away, but should push both Clayton Geathers and Mike Adams for starting roles. Geathers was a 4th round pick in 2015 who struggled on 271 snaps as a rookie, but he is expected to take over for departed free agent Dwight Lowery, who was solid in 2015. Adams, meanwhile, wasn’t bad in 2015 either, but he graded out slightly below average and is going into his age 35 season. Also going into the final year of his deal, this is likely to be Adams’ final season in Indianapolis and possibly in the league, with Green taking over as the starter in 2017, or possibly sooner. Adams is one of 7 projected week 1 starter over-30 on the Colts’ defense, a defense that figures to take a major step back in 2016 as a result of age and injury.

Grade: C+

Conclusion

The Colts won 8 games even though Andrew Luck missed half of last season, but that doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to win more games this season with him healthy. Even with Luck injured, the passing game was not the problem for the Colts last season, as backup Matt Hasselbeck played admirably and did a good job managing the game in Luck’s absence. They had serious issues running the ball, issues that won’t improve with Frank Gore going into his age 33 season. They’re also missing top defensive player Vontae Davis for the first month of the season with injury on a defense that figures to take a major step backwards anyway because of age and the loss of top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency. They’ll win some shoot outs, but they’re not a lock to reclaim the AFC South.

Prediction: 7-9 2nd in AFC South

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (3-13) at Indianapolis Colts (7-8)

This is another one where I wouldn’t touch either side with money. Both teams have serious quarterback problems. The Colts are on to their 4th quarterback of the year, Josh Freeman. Matt Hasselbeck was playing in the absence of starting quarterback Andrew Luck, but he got hurt last week and Charlie Whitehurst finished out. However, Whitehurst got hurt too, leaving the Colts with the choice between Stephen Morris, a 2014 undrafted free agent signed off of Philadelphia’s practice squad last week, Ryan Lindley, signed this week, and Josh Freeman, signed this week. They ultimately seem to have settled on Freeman as their best option, even though he wasn’t signed until Tuesday and definitely doesn’t know the playbook well enough to play yet. The Colts just didn’t have another option.

Freeman hasn’t seen regular season action since 2013, when he completed 42.9% of his passes for an average of 5.18 YPA, 2 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions across 4 games with two teams. A capable quarterback as recently as 2012, Freeman is only 27 (28 next week), but saw his NFL career go south in a hurry and hasn’t been nearly impressive enough to make anyone’s roster since. His last NFL start came week 7 in 2013 for the Minnesota Vikings, who had just signed him less than 2 weeks prior, and it showed, as he completed 20 of 53 for 190 yards and an interception in what stands as the worst quarterback performance of the past few years. This time taking the field after just 5 days with the team, I wouldn’t rule out him being comparably bad. Hopefully he won’t have to pass as much this time.

The Titans, meanwhile, will start backup quarterback Zach Mettenberger in this one, with starter Marcus Mariota dealing with a knee injury. Mettenberger, a 2014 6th round pick, has completed 61.1% of his passes for an average of 6.96 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in 2 years in the league. He’s the better of the two quarterbacks in the game, but this might be the first time in his career you can say that about him. The Titans have moved the chains at a 56.88% rate this season in the 4 games where he’s led the team in pass attempts, as opposed to 72.78% in the other 11 games where Mariota was healthy.

The Colts have the better defense (ranking 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Titans) and more supporting talent on offense, but it’s hard to have any confidence in them given their quarterback situation, even in what figures to be a low scoring game that they could control with running and defense. Both of these teams are also likely in their final game with their current coach. Mike Mularkey has been the Titans’ interim Head Coach for 7 weeks since Ken Whisenhunt was fired, but doesn’t really have much of a shot of getting the long-term gig.

Meanwhile, Colts Head Coach Chuck Pagano is at the end of his contract and isn’t expected back after a down year and a falling out with the front office. The line on this one is 3.5, so for me to take the Colts, I’d have to be at least somewhat confident they could win by more than a field goal. I’m not, so I’m going the other way. Close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I can’t have any confidence in Tennessee either though.

Indianapolis Colts 13 Tennessee Titans 10

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Colts, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (6-8) at Miami Dolphins (5-9)

The Colts have really fallen apart in the last 3 weeks, losing all 3 games by a combined final score of 112-36. Luckily for them, they face one of the worst teams in the NFL this week, a Miami Dolphins team that ranks 31st in rate of moving the chains differential and that is likely going to be without talented center Mike Pouncey in this one. As poorly as the Colts have played in recent weeks, they’re still a far better team than the Dolphins, ranking 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential, so they should be able to bounce back this week and win on the road against a Miami team that is just 11-23 ATS as home favorites since 2008.

The Colts are also in a much better spot than the Dolphins, as they host the Titans next week. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have to turn around and play the Patriots, so they could look past Indianapolis. Their season is over in terms of their playoff chances and New England is annually their biggest home game. The early line has them as 3.5 point home underdogs and teams are 84-129 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+. That line could change if the Patriots win this week, lock up the #1 seed, and rest their starters for some or all of the game, but the logic holds either way. It’s a huge upcoming game on their schedule.

On top of that, favorites are just 103-169 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the early line has them favored by 3 at home against Tennessee). The only reason this isn’t a high confidence pick or Pick of the Week is because of how unbelievably banged up 40-year-old Colts quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (jaw, back, neck, ribs) is, something that seems to be showing in his play recently. The Colts would probably be better off going with Charlie Whitehurst, who was serviceable in limited action with the Titans last week. Whitehurst could still see action if Hasselbeck continues to struggle or gets hurt even further. I still have enough confident in the Colts to put money on them as 2.5 point underdogs.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Miami Dolphins 16 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (6-7) at Indianapolis Colts (6-7)

The Colts lost 51-16 in Jacksonville last week, but the good news is that teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Colts lost by 35 the week prior as well, in Pittsburgh, and that didn’t help them last week, but that’s just one data point against a trend that’s historically been successful and that makes logical sense. Besides, teams that have lost back-to-back games by at least 21 points are 44-27 ATS over that same time period, for the same reasons.

The Colts also historically cover at home, against divisional opponents, and against sub-.500 opponents, in the Chuck Pagano era, dating back to 2012. They are 21-10 ATS at home, 18-7 ATS against sub-.500 opponents (week 4 or later), and 16-6 ATS against divisional opponents over that time period. Combining all three, they are 5-2 ATS at home, against sub-.500 divisional opponents in week 4 or later, since 2012. The Texans fit all three criteria.

The Texans are the better team, ranking 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Colts, but much of the league is bunched up in the middle and the Texans are actually closer to 23rd than 6th, so the difference isn’t as big as it seems. Besides, the Texans are missing starting quarterback Brian Hoyer, while stud defensive lineman JJ Watt is playing through a broken hand, which seemed to limit him against New England last week. As long as this line stays under 3, I’m taking the Colts. I wouldn’t put money on it though, because the Texans are in a good spot too. Divisional road underdogs are 55-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one and the Colts beat the Texans in Houston earlier this year.

Indianapolis Colts 16 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -1

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8)

The Colts lost in Pittsburgh 45-10 last week, but still rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 28th. Given that, I think we’re getting at least some line value with the Colts as 1 point underdogs. That’s no surprise, considering teams are 51-26 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more points since 2002. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed off of a loss like that. I don’t expect the Jaguars to overlook the Colts, considering the Colts still lead the division, but the Colts definitely seem undervalued.

They could also easily be embarrassed after last week’s debacle against a tough team and get back on track against a weaker team this week. The Colts generally do well against weaker teams, particularly divisional opponents in what has been arguably the weakest division in football over the past few years. Since Chuck Pagano took over in 2012, the Colts are 16-5 ATS against the division, 19-7 ATS against opponents with a losing record, and 13-3 ATS against divisional opponents with a losing record.

It also helps the Colts that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 126-91 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 103-62 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 221-219 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.37 points per game, as opposed to 311-431 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.83 points per game.

The Colts are banged up, missing quarterback Andrew Luck, left tackle Anthony Castonzo, and middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman. Luck has been missing for a while and wasn’t playing well even when on the field, so that one doesn’t matter too much, but Castonzo is missing his 4th straight and Freeman his 2nd straight and they’ve both been missed in their absence. I still am taking the Colts for a money play, but I really wish we were getting a field goal with them.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +1

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Steelers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5)

Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 73.60% rate in his 4 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at his best, he’s way better than Hasselbeck, but Luck hasn’t played well so far this year and it’s definitely been nice for them to have a capable game manager backup quarterback like Hasselbeck this year. The Colts’ defense has also been better than it has been in recent years, though losing talented rookie defensive end Henry Anderson for the season a couple weeks ago hurts. He was a big part of why they improved. The Colts are also missing left tackle Anthony Castonzo and middle linebacker Jerrell Freeman, also key players.

The Steelers rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, but have moved the chains at a 75.00% rate in the 7 games that Ben Roethlisberger has played, as opposed to 63.64% in their other 4 games. However, they’re far from completely healthy around him, missing running back Le’Veon Bell, center Maurkice Pouncey, and left tackle Kelvin Beachum with serious injuries, three players who were key to the Steelers’ strong offense last season. Of course, if Roethlisberger continues to play like he did last week in Seattle, it might not matter that they’re missing so much talent around him, but, then again, their improved defense looked pretty bad last week.

Considering the Colts rank 14th in rate of moving the chains differential and have played better when Hasselbeck has played, this line seems high at a touchdown, even with the Colts also banged up. The Colts are also in a better spot, as they go to the lowly Jaguars next week (where they’re expected to be 1 point road favorites), while the Steelers have to go to Cincinnati. Underdogs (like the Colts) are 167-98 ATS before being favorites (as the Colts will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (as the Steelers will be next week). The Steelers could also easily be 6 point underdogs in Cincinnati, arguably the toughest game of their season, and teams are 49-83 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point underdogs. If they were healthier, this would be a higher confidence pick, but I’d still put money on the touchdown with the Colts.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +7

Confidence: Medium

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