Colts

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Colts, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

Matt Hasselbeck is 3-0 as the Colts’ starter and the Colts have moved the chains at a 72.04% rate in his 3 starts, as opposed to 69.66% in Andrew Luck’s 7 starts. Certainly getting Luck back healthy for the stretch run and playoffs is very important because, at his best, he’s way better than Hasselbeck, but Luck hasn’t played well so far this year and it’s definitely been nice for them to have a capable game manager backup quarterback like Hasselbeck this year. The Colts’ defense has also been better than it has been in recent years, though losing talented rookie defensive end Henry Anderson for the season last week hurts. He was a big part of why they improved.

Anderson’s injury is one injury that gives me pause when I think about putting money on the Colts this week. The other is a knee injury to talented left tackle Anthony Castonzo, who will miss his first game of the season this week. The Colts rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season and have been better offensively when Hasselbeck starts, while the Buccaneers rank 21st, so I think we’re still getting value with the Colts as mere field goal favorites at home (where they are 20-10 ATS since 2012).

It’s also good to see that the public is on the Buccaneers, despite the line moving from 3.5 to the key number of 3 in the past week. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, so that line movement is more significant than you might think.  I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run and I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. By taking Indianapolis here, I’d be able to do both. However, I can’t quite bring myself to put money on the Colts, so this is a low confidence pick. If the line dips down to 2.5 (unlikely), I’ll reconsider.

Update: This spread has dropped to 2.5, so I’m moving this up to a medium confidence pick.

Indianapolis Colts 26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

The Falcons are 6-3, but not as good as their record. Their 3 losses came against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. Just 2 of their 6 wins have come by more than a touchdown and the toughest team they’ve beaten is probably Philadelphia, who they only beat because they were at home and Philadelphia missed a makeable field goal at the end of the game. The Falcons have exceeded pre-season expectations, but aren’t too much more talented than their 4-win team from 2013 or their 6-win team from 2014. They’ve simply lucked out getting close wins (4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less) and playing easy opponents.

They would seem to have lucked out again, given that they’re facing the Colts without Andrew Luck, who is missing the first of multiple games with a lacerated kidney. Luck is certainly a better player than backup Matt Hasselbeck and has more upside, but Luck was not playing well when on the field this season, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Hasselbeck is a solid, experienced backup and played well in two spot starts in place of Luck earlier this year. The Colts moved the chains at a 73.85% rate in those 2 games, as opposed to 69.66% in their other 7 games with Luck.

Given that, the Falcons should not be favored by 5 points here over the Colts. They rank 12th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, as their defense has been solid this season (11th), allowing them to be competitive, despite inconsistencies and struggles at the quarterback position. They’ve had a way tougher schedule too, facing Carolina, Denver, New England, and the Jets, who would all be the toughest opponent Atlanta has seen all season. They haven’t played any of those teams without Luck, but they should still be able to keep it close in Atlanta. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, including 3 of the Falcons’ wins, so as long as the line is 4.5 or more, the Colts should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +5

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Broncos, Colts, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (7-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)

The Broncos are in a good spot this week, as favorites of 6+ with another easy game on deck, hosting Kansas City next week. Favorites of 6+ are 78-39 ATS before being favored by 6+ since 2012, as significantly superior teams tend to take care of business and win big when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. However, the Broncos don’t deserve to be favored by that many. Despite their undefeated record, they rank just 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, as they have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown.

The Colts, meanwhile, are having a down year and rank 19th in that measure, but still don’t deserve to be underdogs of this many. Just two of their losses have come by more than a touchdown. They’re also historically very good at home and off of a loss in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era (2012). Luck is 19-9 ATS at home in his career, including 7-0 ATS as home underdogs, previously covering as 9.5 point home underdogs against the Patriots earlier this year, in a 7 point loss. Luck is also 15-3 ATS off a loss in his career. The Broncos have no business being favored by this many points in Indianapolis in this spot.

This line was only a field goal a week ago, before moving to six in the week since, following Denver’s big home win against the previously undefeated Packers. Despite that big movement, the public is still all over the Broncos. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run and I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense because those tend to caused by overreactions to a single week of play.

The Broncos’ defensive performance last week was no fluke and they rank 1st in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season, but I think their offensive performance was a fluke, as they still rank 30th in rate of moving the chains on the season (the reason why they’re only 10th overall). The Broncos don’t get a bye week to rest their ancient quarterback and put together a great gameplan for this game like they did for last week’s game. They’re also in a bad spot, as teams are 59-103 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010, including 15-31 ATS as favorites.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a bigger play, in addition to the fact that the Broncos do have a pretty easy game on deck, meaning they have no upcoming distractions. The first is that they’re kind of in a tough spot off of an overtime loss. Teams are 54-72 ATS off of a road overtime loss as underdogs since 1989. The second is that the Colts’ top receiver TY Hilton might not play, after not practicing all week, while the Broncos aren’t missing anyone of note. Hilton’s injury hurts Andrew Luck’s chances against what’s obviously a good defense, a problem because Luck himself is dealing with a throwing shoulder injury and possible broken ribs. However, the Broncos’ offense isn’t good either and the Colts’ defense has actually been their better unit this season, especially now that they’re healthy, after dealing with injuries early in the season. They rank 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed on the season. They should be able to keep this one close and possibly even win here at home as 6 point underdogs. I’m confident enough in the Colts to put money on them.

Denver Broncos 17 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +6

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (3-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-0)

Andrew Luck hasn’t looked right this season. His recent shoulder injury hasn’t helped, but he wasn’t playing well before that either, as he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked quarterback, only ahead of Matt Stafford, on the season. It might be in the Colts’ best interest to rest him for a few weeks and go back to starting Matt Hasselbeck, who played decently in two spots starts in Luck’s absence earlier this year. He currently ranks as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked quarterback and the Colts moved the chains at a 73.85% rate in his two starts, as opposed to 69.57% in Luck’s five starts. Their defense has been solid, but that hasn’t been enough offensively, as they rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, much worse than they have been in recent years.

It’s also possible that Hasselbeck’s success in his two starts has to do with the fact that he played 2 divisional opponents. The Colts play in arguably the worst division in football and, while they’ve gone 15-0 in the division since 2013, they are just 12-16 outside of the division over that time period and just 0-4 this season, as they’ve underachieved. That’s going to make it hard for them to keep it close in Carolina, against a Panthers team that ranks 5th in rate of moving the chains differential. It’s not enough for me to be confident in them, especially with the public all over them, but the Panthers should be the right side.

Carolina Panthers 27 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: None

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New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3)

The Colts are in a bunch of spots that they’ve been historically good in since Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano arrived in 2012. The Colts are 19-9 ATS at home (including a cover last week as 9.5 point home underdogs in a loss to the Patriots), 14-3 ATS off of a loss, and 8-2 ATS at home off of a loss. On top of that, they are 16-4 ATS in week 5 or later against opponents who have a winning percentage of less than 50% like the Saints here. The Colts have always had trouble with tougher opponents, but they’re a covering machine in easy situations like this, at home, against an easy opponent, and coming off of a loss that dropped the line a little bit.

The line has been dropped from 6.5 in the early line last week to 4.5 this week, as a result of Indianapolis’ home loss to the Patriots and the Saints home win over the Atlanta Falcons. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Colts. The Colts rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Saints only rank 21st.

This is despite the fact that the Colts were without Andrew Luck for 2 of their 6 games and now he’s going into his 2nd game back. The Colts will be without safety Mike Adams in this one, but, compared to early in the season, when they had all sorts of guys banged up, the Colts are in a relatively good injury situation right now. The Saints are too, only missing cornerback Keenan Lewis, after struggling with injuries early on, but there’s no way they should be just 4.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis against a relatively healthy Indianapolis team. They should be at least touchdown underdogs, especially given Indianapolis’ homefield advantage. The Saints’ defense is atrocious, even when healthy, and should have major problems slowing the Colts’ now healthy offense.

The only reason why the Colts are my Pick of the Week or a high confidence pick is because they do have a tough game next week in Carolina, which could provide a distraction. The Saints, meanwhile, host the New York Giants, which is an easier game. Underdogs are 113-70 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be more focused than their opponent in spots like that. Still, I like the Colts chances of covering in this one. This line is too low and the Colts always bounce back off of a loss and always take care of business at home against bad opponents.

Indianapolis Colts 30 New Orleans Saints 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -4.5

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)

Normally, I love fading huge line movements, I can fade a heavy public lean in the process, as huge line movements are typically because of week-to-week overreactions. This game had one of those line movements, as the Colts have gone from being 5 point underdogs to 9.5 point underdogs in a week and the public is still all over New England. Nothing really happened in the past week that should have caused that. The Colts are coming off of arguably their best game of the season, as they were able to go into Houston and win with a backup quarterback, had 10 days off, and were able to get guys healthy.

Aside from defensive end Arthur Jones, who they haven’t had all season, they’re at full strength right now, after missing guys like cornerback Andrew Luck, cornerback Greg Toler, and cornerback Darius Butler with injury to start the season, while cornerback Vontae Davis and safety Mike Adams have also dealt with injuries. The Patriots, meanwhile, had a great win in Dallas, but that shouldn’t have been a surprise considering they were huge favorites off of a bye and they also lost left tackle Nate Solder for the season and will be without cornerback Tarell Brown in this one.

However, I really have no interest is going against New England in this one. This isn’t as talented of a team as they had last season, particularly in the secondary, but their pass rush is better and they still could be the best team in the NFL. After winning 13 of their last 14 meaningful games to end last season, they are 4-0, ranking 1st in rate of moving the chains differential, to start this season. They’ve also had no problem with Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano, beating the Colts 4 straight times since those two showed up in Indianapolis in 2012, by an average of 29.00 points per game, though it’s worth noting that the Patriots have only been to Indianapolis once over those 4 games and the Colts are 18-9 ATS at home over that time period.

The Patriots are also in a good spot, as they are 9.5 point favorites over the Jets in New England in the early line for next week. Teams are 75-34 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2012. The Colts also have a game in which they will probably be 6 point favorites on deck, as the Saints come to town next week, and 6+ point underdogs are 69-57 ATS before being 6+ point favorites over that same time period. That’s not as strong as the trend favoring the Patriots though, as favorites tend to do better than underdogs when they have manageable games on deck. It’s worth noting, but I still am taking the Patriots. It’s a no confidence pick though, as the Patriots are a heavily backed large road favorite in a place where it’s tough to win.

New England Patriots 34 Indianapolis Colts 24

Pick against the spread: New England -9.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)

Andrew Luck missed the first game of his career last week, a late scratch with a right shoulder injury. The injury was reportedly not severe, so many thought the Colts were just holding him out ahead of a short week on the road here in Houston on Thursday Night Football, but he’s inactive once again. It still doesn’t sound like it’s a serious injury for Luck and it sounds like that the Colts are just holding him out on a short week ahead of arguably the biggest game of the Colts’ season next week at home for New England (more on how that’s relevant to this game later), but no one outside of the organization has seen him practice since the injury so who knows.

Luck is not the Colts’ only major injury. Top defensive players cornerback Vontae Davis, safety Mike Adams, and defensive end Henry Anderson are all active, but none of the three practiced this week. On top of that, linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Bjoern Werner are also out, while replacement quarterback Matt Hasselbeck didn’t practice at all this week on a short week and was in the hospital as recently as Tuesday with an illness. Hasselbeck was decent against Jacksonville last week, but the Jaguars have one of the worst defenses in the league. The Texans have a better defense and Hasselbeck has to face them at less than 100%, on the road, on a short week. Luck to the now 40-year-old Hasselbeck was already one of the biggest starter to backup quarterback downgrades in the NFL so the Colts could have a very tough time moving the ball through the air tonight.

The Texans, meanwhile, are getting healthier. While marginal receivers Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington will miss this game, leaving them very thin at receiver behind DeAndre Hopkins, but both left tackle Duane Brown and running back Arian Foster, two much more important offensive players, are both in their 2nd game back and should both play better this week. The Texans also don’t really have any injuries after Shorts and Washington.

Even if Luck were healthy, I would have taken the Texans (though obviously not as 5 point favorites) for a number of reasons. The Colts still have a weak supporting cast, no matter who the quarterback is. Their offensive line, running game, and defense are all subpar. Even before you take injury situations into account, these two teams have also played comparably to each other this season, despite pre-season expectations, as the Colts rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential and the Texans rank 15th.

The Colts, at full strength, are probably still the more talented team, but they’re not at full strength and they’re not the same team they were in 2013 and 2014, when they were head and shoulders above the rest of the division, going a combined 12-0. The Colts have won both of their divisional games this season, but didn’t cover the spread in either, after covering the spread in all 12 divisional games in 2013 and 2014, and could have easily lost both games, winning by a combined 5 points. In their other two games, they’ve gotten blown out by the Jets and Bills, perhaps solid teams, but not the NFL’s cream of the crop or anything. They definitely can’t afford to look past a capable Texans team here.

The Colts definitely could look past the Texans somewhat here, as they are in a bad spot. The Texans have a trip to Jacksonville on deck, while the Colts have to host the Patriots next week. The Colts are expected 5 point underdogs at home for New England. Teams are 66-111 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, 35-76 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, and 19-50 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this scenario, it’s more than former than the latter, but the Colts also aren’t that good, especially as banged up as they are.

There are a couple reasons I wouldn’t put money on the Texans, in addition to the Colts’ recent divisional dominance. I don’t think that matters too much now with the way the Colts have been playing and how banged up they are, but it’s still worth mentioning. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the Colts are 18-5 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later since 2011, but, again, I don’t know how much that matters with the way the Colts have been playing and how banged up they are. I just really wish we were getting a little bit more line value with the Texans. I’d put money on them at 3 or so, but this line is 5, so I’ll stay away.

Houston Texans 20 Indianapolis Colts 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -5

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

This line has finally been posted as Andrew Luck has been ruled out and the Colts are 3.5 point favorites here at home for Jacksonville. For anyone who took Jacksonville earlier this week when they were +8 (like me) congratulations and if you took Indianapolis -8…well you shouldn’t have done that. I thought the Jaguars were the right side at +8 even with Luck playing. With Luck out, I still think the Jaguars are the right side, because they’re still in a good spot and the line should have shifted more than 4.5 points for Luck’s injury (Jacksonville is now +3.5).

Even though Jacksonville is banged up too, missing right guard Brandon Linder, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, and tight end Julius Thomas (though left tackle Luke Joeckel and cornerback Dwayne Gratz will return this week), I think these two teams are about even without Luck. Indianapolis’ supporting cast around Luck, for the most part, is weak, as they don’t have a very good offensive line, running game, or defense, especially against the run, while new starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 40 years old and hasn’t made a start since 2012.

Also, as I mentioned, the Jaguars are also in a great spot, as they have been all week. While we can’t use the road underdogs off of a road loss trend because this is the Jaguars 2nd of 3 road games instead of their 2nd of 2 (they go to Tampa Bay next week), teams do tend to bounce back off of blowout losses like the one the Jaguars had in New England last week, losing by the final score of 51-17. Teams are 58-38 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 34+ points, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a loss like that.

On top of that, the Colts have to play again in 4 days against the Texans in Houston (likely part of why they kept Luck out). Teams are 41-63 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday night game. The Colts are currently mere 1 point favorites in Houston and, if they perform badly here this week, they could be underdogs, which would open up another bad trend for the Colts. Teams are 21-56 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. It’s one of the most powerful trends out there that makes any sense. Finally, teams are 4-17 ATS during week 4 as favorites after winning their first game of the season in week 3, the previous week. The Colts are just in a horrible spot here, especially with the oldest quarterback in the league making his first start in 3 years for them. I put money on Jacksonville +8 earlier this week and definitely I’d still be willing to do it now at +3.5 with Luck ruled out.

The Colts typically play really well against the division and at home, going 15-4 ATS in the division since 2012 (when Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano first arrived), 18-8 ATS at home over that time, and 7-2 ATS at home against the division over that time period. They also have played well against weaker opponents during that time period, going 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later. However, it’s hard to trust any of those trends without Luck. I have a good amount of confidence that Jacksonville is the right side this week and would even put money on the money line.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Indianapolis Colts 16 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)

The Colts lost last week at home to the Jets, but they are 14-2 ATS in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era off of a loss. I mentioned their dominance off of a loss in recent years last week and it didn’t work out for me, but I still like their chances of bouncing back this week for a number of reasons. Last week’s game did show the Jets to be better than most, including myself, thought they were. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues his solid play from the past 2 years, despite his age, and is arguably the best quarterback the Jets have had since Chad Pennington was healthy, while first year head coach Todd Bowles has the defense playing well. That game also showed the Colts to be worse than most thought, as they have serious issues on the offensive line and on defense, especially with several significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Greg Toler and Darius Butler remain out for this game and those are their #2 and #3 cornerbacks, while top defensive lineman Arthur Jones was knocked out for the season before it even began.

However, there were also a lot of fluky elements to the Jets’ win in Indianapolis. The Jets won the turnover battle by 4, which tends to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Teams who have a -4 turnover margin have, on average, a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. The Colts are -7 in turnovers on the season, but that should improve going forward and that will have a noticeable effect in the standings and on the scoreboard. They also get Vontae Davis back from injury, after he missed more than half of last week’s loss with a concussion he suffered mid-game. He’s hands down their best defensive player and more important to this team than anyone other than Andrew Luck, so him being knocked out was a big deal.

Besides, 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous year are usually a safe bet, as they’ve gone 18-9 ATS week 1 since 2002. The Colts have never lost 3 straight regular season games in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era and I don’t expect that to happen this week. In fact, I expect the Colts to bounce back in a very big way. The Titans are also in a bad spot, playing their first home game of the season week 3. Teams that have their first home game week 3 tend to be less energized and it shows, as teams in that situation are 22-43 ATS since 1989.

On top of that, the Colts have always taken care of business in the division over the past few years. A 10-12 team outside of the division since 2013, the Colts have been propped up by a 12-0 record (12-0 ATS) against their weak division. They’ve always played weak opponents, especially weak divisional opponents, well, but have struggled mightily against non-divisional opponents, especially strong non-divisional opponents. The Colts are 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later since 2012. I know the Titans are technically 1-1 and it’s only week 3, but the logic holds.

The Titans are an improved team over last year’s 2-win team, adding Brian Orakpo, Da’Norris Searcy, and Perrish Cox on defense and Marcus Mariota on offense, but they’re still the type of opponent the Colts usually beat easily, especially with top offensive lineman Chance Warmack out with injury. I am concerned about Trent Cole’s absence for the Colts and the Titans secretly being a solid team, but, and I know I said this last week, but I like the Colts’ chances of bouncing back in a big way this week, this time against a below average divisional opponent.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Jets (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

One of my favorite things to do in betting is to go against significant week-to-week line movement. The logic behind it is this: significant line movements from one week to another that aren’t the result of serious injury are usually overreactions to one week and thus provide line value. This line shifted from 9.5 last week in the early line and now it’s fallen down to 7, for reasons other than injuries, as injured Colts receiver TY Hilton is more likely than not going to be able to play. The line movement is not a surprise, considering the Colts lost 27-14 in Buffalo last week, while the Jets had one of the biggest victories of the week, beating the Browns 31-10.

The Colts’ loss in Indianapolis did expose them as a team with a great passing offense and good weapons in the passing game, but little else, a weak offensive line and running game and a defense with a bunch of problems. The Bills’ stout defense was able to handle the one-dimensional Colts’ offense, while their weak offense was able to take advantage of frequent good field position provided by the defense and move the ball against the Colts’ porous stop unit.

However, there is still a lot that’s good about the Colts and I like their chances of bouncing back and taking care of business here at home against a Jets team that won’t get to play the Browns every week and that still has serious problems, including the quarterback spot, the pass rush, and the secondary behind Darrelle Revis, especially with Antonio Cromartie now hurt and likely to miss this one. This line suggests that the Colts would be mere 1 point favorites in New York against the Jets, which doesn’t make any sense considering the Colts were 3 point favorites in Buffalo last week and Buffalo is better than the Jets.

In addition to the line value created by overreaction to last week, there are a few other reasons why I like the Colts to bounce back here. One reason is that they typically have bounced back from losses in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era, going 14-1 ATS off of a loss since that duo arrived in 2012. The Colts are also in a way better spot, with only a trip to Tennessee on deck, while the Jets will host the Eagles next week. The Colts are expected to be road favorites of more than a field goal in Tennessee, while the Jets are expected to be more than field goal underdogs at home against Philadelphia. Teams are 96-70 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of a field goal or more, while teams are 65-103 ATS over that time period before being home underdogs of a field goal or more. It’ll be easier for the Colts to be focused for this one with no upcoming distractions.

The Colts are also especially good at home, going 18-7 ATS at home since 2012, including 8-1 ATS at home off of a loss over that time period. On top of that, they’ve always been able to handle below average teams pretty easily over the past few years, going 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later. I know the Jets aren’t sub .500 and it’s not past week 4, but the logic follows anyway. I think, more likely than not, as the season goes on, that the Jets will show themselves to be a sub .500 team and that will start with a big loss here in Indianapolis. Indianapolis is my Pick of the Week.

Indianapolis Colts 31 New York Jets 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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