Colts

Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Colts, Giants, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at New York Giants (3-4)

The Colts surprisingly lost in Pittsburgh last week by the final score of 51-34 as 3.5 point favorites. This week, they are once again 3.5 point road favorites here in New York against the Giants, but I think the result will be different for four reasons. The first reason is that Andrew Luck and Chuck Pagano, as is the case with most good quarterback/head coach combinations, have been great off a loss, going 10-1 ATS since they both took over in 2012.

Two, the Giants are in a bad spot going to Seattle next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 40-84 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s the former here.

Three, I think last week’s loss was a fluke as the Colts are still a very good team. Who knows how the game would have gone differently if Vontae Davis (who should be fine this week) didn’t leave with injury. I don’t think they lose in Pittsburgh more than 20 times out of 100 and I think the same is true here this week in New York. Even with last week’s result, the Colts still rank 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 78.50% rate, as opposed to 71.77% for their opponents, a differential of 6.73%. Meanwhile, the Giants rank 17th, moving the chains at a 73.91% rate, as opposed to 73.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.18%.

Four, the Colts are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. Going off of that, road favorites are 31-28 ATS off of a road loss since 2008 as long as it’s the 2nd of two road favorites, including 15-8 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as road favorites. The Colts should be the right side here.

Indianapolis Colts 31 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, Steelers, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)

The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 7 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered every game this season. Both of their losses came against teams that currently have one loss and they came by a combined 10 points. Last week, they completely dominated Cincinnati 27-0, beating a solid team in embarrassing fashion, forcing 8 straight three and outs to start the season.

Andrew Luck is playing like the type of quarterback he was expected to become, completing 65.9% of his passes for an average 7.72 YPA, 19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground on 30 carries. The defense has held up as well. Through 6 games, they are moving the chains at a 78.44% rate, as opposed to 67.65% for their opponents, a differential of 10.79% that is best in the NFL by over 3 percentage points (7.40% is the next best).

The Steelers, meanwhile, move the chains at a 74.11% rate, as opposed to 73.24% for their opponents, a differential of 0.87% that ranks 13th in the NFL. That suggests we’re getting significant line value with the Colts as mere field goal favorites here, even on the road. The Colts should be the right side, but I don’t like the idea of betting on such a heavy public favorite (more than 90% of the action is on Indianapolis) without a powerful trend supporting them, as the odds makers always come out on top.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Pittsburgh Steelers 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (3-1-1) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2)

The Bengals played the Panthers to a tie last week and now they have to go on the road to Indianapolis. That puts them at a disadvantage rest wise, for obvious reasons. Ties are rare so there isn’t a big sample size, but teams are 5-9 ATS off of a tie since 1989, including 0-5 ATS on the road, all of which makes sense. Making matters worse, the Colts are coming off of a Thursday Night game so they’ve had extra rest and the Colts are much better at home than the Bengals are on the road. Since the start of the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era in 2012, the Colts are 13-6 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 3-6-1 on the road since the start of last season, including losses in 2013 to non-playoff teams like Cleveland, Miami, Chicago, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh and a close call in Buffalo.

This line is also suggesting that these two teams are even and that’s not true right now, even before you take into account the Colts’ home dominance, the Bengals’ road struggles, or the rest factor. The Colts are arguably the best team in the NFL right now, or at least they’ve played like it through 6 games. With the exception of a 3 point home loss as 3 point home favorites to the Eagles, the Colts have covered every game this season. Both of their losses came against teams that currently have one loss and they came by a combined 10 points.

Andrew Luck is playing like the type of quarterback he was expected to become, completing 66.2% of his passes for an average 7.64 YPA, 17 touchdowns, 7 interceptions. He’s also rushed for 93 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground on 26 carries. The defense has held up as well. Through 6 games, they are moving the chains at a 79.04% rate, as opposed to 70.65% for their opponents, a differential of 8.39% that is best in the NFL by close to 2 percentage points (6.69% is the next best).

Meanwhile, the Bengals rank 21st. They are moving the chains at a 74.39% rate, as opposed to 75.69%, a differential of -1.30%. They were a lot better last season, finishing 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential and they could still play a lot better this season, but it’s possible that the off-season losses of both coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer as well as talented defensive starter Michael Johnson are too much for them, as their defense has been the unit that’s disappointed the most. They could bounce back long-term, but I’m not betting on them on the road in Indianapolis as mere field goal underdogs when the Colts have the rest advantage. The Colts are the easy play here.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Cincinnati Bengals 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (3-2) at Houston Texans (3-2)

The Texans lost a hard fought battle with the Cowboys last week in Dallas, losing by a field goal in overtime. Now they have to turn around and play another game after 3 days rest. That will really hurt them here. Teams generally struggle as home underdogs off an overtime loss as road underdogs, going 13-20 ATS in that dynamic since 1989. However, teams especially struggle on Thursday night off an overtime game, going 3-18 ATS in that situation since 1989. There aren’t enough data points to combine those two trends, but you can imagine they don’t add well together. This is a rough spot for the Texans.

We’re also getting line value with the Colts because the public hasn’t really caught on to the fact that they’re one of the elite teams in the NFL. They’re moving the chains at a 78.95% rate, as opposed to 70.32% for their opponents. Andrew Luck has broken out as the type of top level quarterback the Colts envisioned him being when they drafted him #1 overall in 2012. He’s completing 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.49 yards per attempt, 14 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, leading their dynamic offense. Only giving a field goal here with them, with the Texans in the situation they’re in, is a great deal.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Houston Texans 17

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Colts, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)

I think the Ravens are an underrated team. They are 3-1 and they’ve moved the chains at a higher rate than their opponent in all 4 games they’ve played. Even in their home loss to undefeated Cincinnati, they moved the chains at a 75.68% rate, as opposed to 62.69% for the Bengals. They currently lead the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 9.59%. They move the chains at an 80.88% rate, as opposed to 71.30% for their opponents. I’m kind of concerned that they’ve lost both Dennis Pitta and Eugene Monroe for extended periods of time, but they didn’t seem to miss them much in last week’s home win over the Panthers, a 38-10 victory.

The Colts are actually 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at an 80.26% rate, as opposed to 73.23% for their opponents (a differential of 7.03%). However, most of that is because they destroyed the Jaguars and Titans over the past two weeks. Against the Jaguars, they moved the chains at an 83.78% rate, as opposed to 68.97% for their opponents. Against the Titans, they moved the chains at an 83.72% rate, as opposed to 64.29% for their opponents. They’ve had more trouble with tougher opponents though. I think the Ravens are the better team here.

The reason I’m not that confident in the Ravens is because they aren’t the same team on the road. Since the start of the John Harbaugh/Joe Flacco in 2008, they are 43-10 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.30 points per game, as opposed to 31-29 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 0.98 points per game. However, given that we’re getting more than a field goal with the better team, the Ravens should be the right side. Also helpful for the Ravens, the Colts have a Thursday Night game against the Texans up next. Favorites are 31-55 ATS before a Thursday Night game since 2008.

Indianapolis Colts 20 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

The Titans were 7 point underdogs in Cincinnati last week and got blown out by the score of 33-7. Now they’re 7.5 point underdogs in Indianapolis. I think this week will go a little differently for several reasons. For one, the Colts aren’t as good as the Bengals, especially at home, where the Bengals have now covered 11 straight regular season games. The Bengals were significantly better last season, with a rate of moving the chains differential of 7.81%, as opposed to 0.70% for Indianapolis, and they’re still better this season, with a differential of 3.39% for Cincinnati as opposed to 3.14% for Indianapolis. The Colts only have 9 wins by more than a touchdown since the start of the Andrew Luck era in 2012. Their other 15 wins have come by a touchdown or less. They’ve beaten the Titans four times, but none of those wins have come by more than 8 points.

The Titans are also in a better spot this week. Last week, they were facing a Bengal team going into a bye last week and big home favorites cover about 75% of the time going into a bye. This week, they’re in a good spot, with an easier, less important game against the Browns up next. Teams are 47-33 ATS as divisional road favorites before being non-divisional home favorites since 2008. They’re going to be very focused for this one.

The Titans are also road underdogs after a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 172-178 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 239-344 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.20 points per game.  I like the Titans’ chances to keep bounce back and keep this one close.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Tennessee Titans 24

Pick against spread: Tennessee +7.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)

The Jaguars are terrible. They lost last week by the score of 41-10 in Washington even after the Redskins lost RG3 early in the game to injury. They allowed 41 points to a backup quarterback and on the other side of the fall, they were sacked more often (10) than they picked up the first down (8) against what has generally been a terrible defense over the past year or two. The Jaguars moved the chains at a 45.00% rate, while the Redskins moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, one of the worst performances by a team I’ve seen in a long time.

The Jaguars were awful last season too, losing 10 of 12 games by double digits and needing a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less to even get to 4-12. Those 4 wins came against opponents who finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential last season. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%.

The Colts hadn’t lost more than two in a row in the Andrew Luck era before last week and now they’re 0-2, but I still like their chances of bouncing back in a big way here in Jacksonville. The Colts are still 10-1 ATS off of a loss since 2012 and the line here is only 7. In their last 19 games, they have 13 double digit losses. The Colts should be able to make that 14 double digit losses in 20 games. They have no distractions on the horizon with a home game against Tennessee up next. Teams are 40-24 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites.

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are going to San Diego next week and could easily be double digit underdogs. Teams are 39-79 before being double digit underdogs since 2010, including 55-79 as home underdogs before being double digit underdogs since 2002. Finally, 0-2 teams are 20-11 ATS as 5+ point favorites since 1989. That tells us two things. One this type of situation doesn’t happen very often. Two, when it does, it’s usually for a reason and that reason seems to be that the favorite team is still very good despite their record or their opponent is really bad (in this game, it’s both).

The Colts don’t have a ton of blowout wins in the Andrew Luck era, winning 15 of their 23 games (including playoffs) since 2012 by a touchdown or less, but they got a blowout victory (XX-XX) here in Jacksonville last year. I like the Colts’ chances of bouncing back and getting another blowout victory here, though I’d be more confident if their history of blowout wins was bigger.

Indianapolis Colts 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -7

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Colts, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)

The Eagles were down 17-0 early against the Jaguars last week at home, before coming back and winning 34-17. Their offense looked solid again, as it did last season with Nick Foles, but their defense continued to struggle. This line suggests these two teams are even, but I don’t think that’s the case right now as the Eagles’ offensive line is falling apart. Lane Johnson is still suspended. Allen Barbre, his replacement, is now out with an injury. Meanwhile, left guard Evan Mathis, one of the best offensive linemen in the league, was put on injured reserve with intent to return and will miss a significant period of time. The Eagles’ defense will continue to struggle and the offense won’t be as good with the offensive line banged up.

The Colts are also in the better spot here. Teams are 52-24 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites (in Jacksonville next week) since 2008. The Colts are also very good off of a loss and at home in the Andrew Luck era. They are 10-0 ATS off of a loss since Luck was drafted in 2012 and 11-5 ATS at home in that same time period. I like the Colts’ chances of beating a banged up Eagles team here in the first Monday Night Football game in Indianapolis in the Andrew Luck era.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -3

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Broncos, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Denver Broncos (0-0)

I don’t think we’re getting any line value with either side here. The Broncos are a very good team that deserves to be 7.5 point favorites over the Colts, who aren’t as good as their record has suggested over the past 2 seasons because of their improbable ability to win close games (14-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, 15-2 if you include playoffs). However, there’s still not really any line value with the Broncos.

I’m taking the Broncos here for three reasons and I’m not that confident. For one, Peyton Manning is great in night games, going 31-14 ATS in night games since 2003. Also since 2003, he’s 27-13 ATS in non-divisional revenge games against teams that he lost to the previous season. Manning obviously hasn’t forgotten about how the Colts knocked them off in Indianapolis last season is likely to get revenge in a big way. He’s also 7-3 ATS in week 1 in that time frame. I’m not that confident, but the Broncos here at home should be the right side.

Denver Broncos 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Denver -7.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Colts, Uncategorized

QB Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)

In 2012, Luck relied on close victories against bad opponents, rather than his own strong play to win games, as he completed 54.1% of his passes for an average of 6.98 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions. In 2013, he became a much improved quarterback, completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 6.71 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. He also improved as a runner going from 255 yards and 5 touchdowns on 62 carries in 2012 (4.11 YPA) to 377 yards and 4 touchdowns on 63 carries in 2013 (5.98 YPA). He could be even better in his 3rd year in the league in 2014.

4150 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 300 rushing yards, 2 rushing touchdowns (292 pts standard)

RB Trent Richardson (Indianapolis)

Trent Richardson’s struggles last season are well documented. The 3rd pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, Richardson averaged 2.92 yards per carry and scored 3 touchdowns on 157 carries in 14 games with the Colts. However, he averaged 1.90 yards per carry after contact and broke 47 tackles on 185 touches (he also added 28 catches for 265 yards and a touchdown), giving him the 10th highest elusive rating in the NFL. Richardson rushed for 3.56 yards per carry in 2012, but he ranked 16th in elusive rating, breaking 59 tackles on 318 touches and averaging 2.09 yards per carry after contact. In 2013 with the Browns, he rushed for 3.39 yards per carry. However, he rushed for 2.42 yards after contact and broke 16 tackles on 38 touches.

Much of Richardson’s struggles last season had to do with the Colts’ offensive line and he ran better than his numbers suggested. However, much of it also had to do with Richardson himself. Richardson showed poor vision and burst, which is part of why there were so few “blocked” yards from him to pick up. He wasn’t hitting the hole hard enough or in the right location, two things he’s had issues with since being drafted. On top of that, the Colts offensive line won’t be much better this season. Richardson will know the playbook better and the feature back role is his for the taking, but he’s a risky RB2.

220 carries for 840 yards, 7 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (148 pts standard)

RB Ahmad Bradshaw (Indianapolis)

Bradshaw rushed for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 41 carries in 3 games last season before going down with a serious neck injury. Bradshaw is now going into his age 28 season, which is like 33 for running backs, with a significant injury history, missing 19 games with various injuries over the past 3 seasons and being limited in many others. However, he’s a tough running back who has averaged 4.59 yards per carry on 962 career carries and he’s only behind Trent Richardson on the depth chart. He’s not a bad late round flier, especially for Richardson owners.

100 carries for 400 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 20 catches for 150 yards (73 pts standard)

WR TY Hilton (Indianapolis)

One positive of Reggie Wayne’s injury last season was that it allowed TY Hilton to have a breakout year as the #1 receiver in his absence. Hilton caught 82 passes for 1083 yards and 5 touchdowns on 533 routes run, an average of 2.03 yards per route run. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked wide receiver. He’s no longer just a deep threat reliant on big plays to make an impact, as he was as a rookie when he caught 50 passes for 861 yards and 7 touchdowns on 479 routes run, an average of 1.80 yards per routes. Now going into his 3rd year in the league, a common breakout year for wide receivers, Hilton could be even better. The 2012 3rd round pick is going into only his age 25 season. He was dominant in the post-season, catching 17 passes for 327 yards and 2 touchdowns in 2 games. He’ll once again be the Colts’ #1 receiver in 2014.

79 catches for 1120 yards and 7 touchdowns (154 pts standard)

WR Reggie Wayne (Indianapolis)

Wayne was the Colts’ most reliable player prior to his injury, not missing a game since his rookie season in 2001 and catching 1006 passes for 13,566 yards and 80 touchdowns in his career. Those 13,566 career yards are 11th all-time and he could easily be Hall-of-Fame bound when it’s all said and done, but he’s going into his age 36 season now and coming off of that serious injury. Even the average top-20 receiver (in terms of yardage all-time) has his last 1000 yard season at age 34-35, averages 48 catches for 594 yards and 3 touchdowns for 2 more seasons after age 34-35, and is done playing by age 36-37. Wayne showed some signs of decline last season and there’s no guarantee that he can be anything close to what the Colts are used to from him this year. Let someone else overdraft him. Hilton is the Colts receiver you want.

58 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns (102 pts standard)

WR Hakeem Nicks (Indianapolis)

The Colts signed Hakeem Nicks to a one-year deal this off-season. Nicks, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like one of the best young receivers in the NFL from 2009-2011. He averaged 2.30 yards per route run in 2009 on 344 routes run and 2.32 yards per route run in 2010 on 453 routes run. In 2011, he “only” averaged 2.08 yards per route run on 572 routes run, thanks to the development of Victor Cruz opposite him, but he was still a big part of the Giants’ Super Bowl team. His development seems to have stagnated over the past 2 seasons though thanks to a variety of lower body injuries and he’s never played all 16 games in a season, missing 10 games over the past 5 seasons and being limited in many others.

Nicks averaged 1.74 yards per route run on 398 routes run in 2012 and 1.70 yards per route run on 527 routes run in 2013. Last year was especially bad as he didn’t score all season and struggled with his chemistry with Eli Manning. 7 passes thrown to him were picked off and Manning’s quarterback rating when throwing to him was 57.0, 7th worst among eligible wide receivers. All that being said, he still has plenty of talent, which still flashes, and even his down years weren’t awful. He’s only going into his age 26 season, so he could be an asset for the Colts in the passing game. Off-season reports haven’t been great though and he’ll be the Colts’ #3 receiver as long as Wayne is healthy, so he’s only a late round flier.

45 catches for 600 yards and 4 touchdowns (84 pts standard)

TE Dwayne Allen (Indianapolis)

Allen missed almost all of last season with a hip injury. That was a bigger loss than most people realize because of how good Allen was as a rookie in 2012. The 2012 3rd round pick only caught 45 passes for 521 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he did so on 64 targets, meaning he caught 70.3% of targets, and on 368 routes run, meaning he averaged 1.42 yards per route run. Where he really excelled was as a blocker, both a run and pass blocker, but he has a great overall game. Essentially a younger version of Heath Miller, Allen could see more pass snaps and more production than he did as a rookie.

44 catches for 550 yards and 5 touchdowns (85 pts standard)

TE Coby Fleener (Indianapolis)

In Allen’s absence, Coby Fleener led Colts’ tight ends in snaps played with 834. Fleener was a 2nd round pick in 2012, going before Allen, but he’s not nearly as good as Allen, especially as a blocker. Fleener caught 52 passes for 608 yards and 4 touchdowns on 482 routes run, an average of 1.26 yards per route run. He caught 52 of 84 targets (61.9%) and only dropped one pass all season. He’ll slide in as the #2 tight end this season, but there will still be pass catching opportunities.

42 catches for 530 yards and 4 touchdowns (77 pts standard)

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]