Colts

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

I’m split on this one. On one hand, the Colts are playing pretty bad football right now. They’re 3-2 since the bye, which doesn’t sound bad, but their 3 wins came by a combined 14 points against the Titans twice and the Texans. Their 2 losses came by a combined 59 points against the Cardinals and Rams. They haven’t had a particularly tough schedule, but they are still -45 in point differential since the bye.

Some people may point to the loss of Reggie Wayne as the reason why and that would be a valid point. Wayne went down right before the bye in a huge win against the Broncos and they’ve really struggled since that game. Andrew Luck has completed 107 of 194 (55.2%) for 1219 yards (6.28 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in his last 5 games without Wayne. However, their offensive line and defense have been playing down to their 2012 level again.

Overall, they are playing like 2012 again, when they needed 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in order to get to the 11-5 record at which they finished. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, which ranks 16th in the NFL and even that takes into account their hot start to the season when they beat San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver.

That could mean trouble for them here as they did terribly on the road against quality football teams last season, losing by 12 in Houston, 20 in Chicago, and 35 in New England. The Bengals are certainly a quality football team who could blow them out if they play like they did last year. They’ve been dominant at home this year, winning all 5 games straight up and against the spread with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points per game. I’m not confident in Cincinnati because this spread seems awfully high at 6.5 (even rate of moving the chains says this line should be around 5.5) and because the Colts might play up to their level of competition again, but the Bengals should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (-5)

Record: 7-4

What the hell happened to the Colts? The obvious answer is to blame it on Reggie Wayne’s absence and that would have some basis. Wayne tore his ACL in the Denver game before the bye and in the 4 games since, Andrew Luck has completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.29 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. However, I don’t think that tells the whole story. I think, in addition to that, they are proving that the start of their season was a bit of a fluke and now they are really the team I thought they’d be to start the season, a team that, because of their offensive line and defensive struggles, would not make the playoffs. Last season, this team won 7 games by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 games or fewer and they ranked 25th in DVOA. They’re playing like that again. If it wasn’t for close wins in Tennessee and Houston, Indianapolis would be 5-6 now and the 6-5 Titans would be leading the division. That didn’t happen, so the Colts are probably a playoff team, but I don’t think they’ll do much once there, much like last year.

Week 12 Studs

LT Anthony Castonzo

LE Cory Redding

RE Ricky Jean-Francois

ROLB Robert Mathis

Week 12 Duds

C Samson Satele

LOLB Bjoern Werner

SS LaRon Landry

FS Antoine Bethea

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Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

What the hell happened to the Colts? The same team that knocked off the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks before the bye has been playing terrible football in the four weeks since the bye, barely beating Tennessee and Houston by a field goal (after trailing early in both games), and getting blown out in Arizona and at home by St. Louis. The obvious answer is to blame it on Reggie Wayne’s absence and that would have some basis. Wayne tore his ACL in the Denver game before the bye and in the 4 games since, Andrew Luck has completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.29 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

However, I don’t think that tells the story. I think, in addition to that, there are proving that the start of their season was a bit of a fluke and now they are really the team I thought they’d be to start the season, a team that, because of their offensive line and defensive struggles, would not make the playoffs. Last season, this team won 7 games by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 games or fewer and they ranked 25th in DVOA. They’re playing like that again. Their home blowout loss to the Rams compares to their loss to the Jets last week. Their near losses to Houston and Tennessee bring back memories of all of their close wins over inferior competition last year. And their blowout loss in Arizona is similar to every single time they went on the road to a competent opponent last season.

The defense was amazing to start this season, but now is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. The offensive line really hasn’t ever been good. They can’t run the ball, just like last season. And now the passing offense is struggling as a result of Wayne’s absence. They are moving the chains at exactly the same rate their opponents are, a differential that is 16th in the NFL. And the most troubling part is they are plummeting so things could only get worse. In terms of DVOA, they are 17th.

Unfortunately, the odds makers seem to have caught on. This line was 3 points 2 weeks ago in Tennessee, which would translate to 9 in Indianapolis, and even last week, the early line on this game was Indianapolis -6, but because of the Colts’ struggles, it’s now down to 4. That’s a huge shift. That being said, the line is totally justified. I mentioned the Colts were 16th in rate of moving the chains differential (and plummeting), the Titans are 18th, moving the chains at a 73% rate, but allowing opponents to do so at a 74% rate. They’ve been a decent team all season and haven’t really skipped a beat without Jake Locker because he wasn’t why they were winning and because Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the best backups in the NFL.

They’re also in a good spot, 2 weeks removed from that loss to the Colts. Since 1989, teams are 16-5 ATS as underdogs two weeks after losing as underdogs to the same divisional opponent. These two teams are going to be so familiar with each other and that’s one of the great equalizers. That favors the underdog. I just wish we were still getting more line value and that Tennessee didn’t have to go to Denver next week. Teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. The Titans should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

The Cardinals are favored by 3 over the Colts, which seems to be confusing the public as they are all over the underdog here, which is very rare. They do have somewhat of a point. The Colts are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. These two teams don’t seem even when you look at that, but this line suggests they are.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, while the Colts are in a good spot. The Colts are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, as they host the Titans next week. That’s a situation teams are 55-40 ATS in since 2002. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, as they go to Philadelphia next week. Teams are 62-86 ATS in that situation since 2002. Combining those, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, you can definitely argue how relevant that is to this situation because it’s not that likely the Cardinals overlook the Colts because of a game with the Eagles next week. The Colts won’t be distracted, but the Cardinals might not either, especially in the Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano bowl. Speaking of that, Bruce Arians was Andrew Luck’s offensive coordinator last year, so that could give the Cardinals a leg up on him.

The Colts’ offense also hasn’t been nearly as good since they lost Reggie Wayne, while the defense is proving their strong play in the early part of the season was a fluke. They haven’t done anything of note since losing Reggie Wayne in that huge win over Denver. Since then, they barely beat Houston and Tennessee and got blown out by the Rams at home, with Andrew Luck completing 70 of 123 (56.9%) for 856 yards (6.96 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the process. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Cardinals because I want to fade the public dog, especially with reverse line movement increasing this line (the definition of a trap line). However, I’m not confident at all.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Arizona -3

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (+0)

Record: 6-3

There are definitely some fluky aspects to the Colts’ loss to the Rams. The Rams led just one methodical touchdown drive, scoring on two return touchdowns, and two long passing touchdowns. That forced the Colts to give up their game plan and put them out of their comfort zone. Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. The Colts were clearly distracted by their upcoming game with the Titans on Thursday. However, the Colts certainly didn’t play well fluky things aside and they haven’t really played well over the past 2 weeks without Reggie Wayne. It’s a concern going forward. We’ll see how they play against the Titans.

Week 10 Studs

LE Cory Redding

ROLB Robert Mathis

Week 10 Duds

QB Andrew Luck

RG Mike McGlynn

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

Both of these teams lost as huge home favorites last week, the Colts lost 38-8 at home to the Rams and the Titans losing 29-27 to the Jaguars. It’s very likely both teams were caught looking forward to this huge divisional game and that last week’s performance was just a fluke for both teams. Both teams won the first down battle despite the loss and they lost for fluky reasons. The Titans fumbled 3 times and lost the turnover battle by 2, as a result.

Meanwhile, there are definitely some fluky aspects to the Colts’ loss to the Rams. The Rams led just one methodical touchdown drive, scoring on two return touchdowns, and two long passing touchdowns. That forced the Colts to give up their game plan and put them out of their comfort zone. Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. I think we can give both of these teams a pass for what happened last week and essentially just approach this game is if neither of those games ever happened.

Yes, the Titans lost Jake Locker for the season last week, but he wasn’t the reason they were in the hunt. That would be their solid defense, led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, Derrick Morgan, and others, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate. There’s a reason they were competitive with both Kansas City and Seattle even without Jake Locker. Fitzpatrick will have the whole week to prepare for this week and he’s one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Besides, it’s very possible the Colts recent struggles (including a near loss in Houston) are related to the loss of Reggie Wayne, who they lost against Denver before the bye. They haven’t been the same without him.

I’m not saying the Titans are definitely going to win this game, but the public seems to be giving the Colts a pass for last week, but not the Titans, even though they were in the same situation. The public is all over the Colts -3 because “how can the Colts not beat the Titans by 3 or more?” I love fading heavy public favorites when an opportunity presents itself and I also love getting a field goal or more with a home team unless that team is completely terrible. Remember, the Colts were 10 point favorites over the Rams last week. This line suggests the Colts would be 9 point favorites over the Titans. Considering the Titans covered as 3 point favorites in St. Louis 2 weeks ago, that makes no sense. I’m not confident or anything, but the Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 6-2

Andrew Luck’s struggles against the Texans without Reggie Wayne in a near loss have to be concerning. Luck completed 18 of 40 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. He made plays when needed and a lot of the blame falls on his receivers, but it’s a concern. The Colts have to hope it’s not something that continues going forward. Fortunately, their schedule isn’t too bad. Among their final 8 opponents, only Cincinnati and Kansas City are currently above .500, though Arizona and Tennessee (twice) could give them some trouble if they’re not careful.

Week 9 Studs

WR TY Hilton

DT Aubrayo Franklin

MLB Pat Angerer

Week 9 Duds

LG Hugh Thornton

RG Mike McGlynn

MLB Jerrell Freeman

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St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2)

On paper, this line might be a little bit too high. The Colts are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Rams are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 7, instead of 9.5. That being said, that doesn’t take into account that the Rams have lost Sam Bradford for the season.

Kellen Clemens has taken over and has completed 37 of 70 for 387 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. The supporting cast around him has stepped up and the Rams have only lost by a combined 12 points in their last 2 games, decent playing a top level Seattle team and a decent Tennessee team. However, this week they go on the road, which is a different story. This line might even too small.

Indianapolis could be distracted though. They have a big game against the Titans in a few days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. It’s tough to pick a side though. This line shifted from 12 to 9.5 in the past week for no real reason. I think I’ll just take the Colts as long as the line is lower than 10 points. I’m not confident though.

Indianapolis Colts 23 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -9.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Houston Texans (2-5)

You could definitely still argue the Texans are underrated and are better than their record. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. That differential is 12th in the NFL. They have been killed by turnovers (-11), an inability to recover fumbles (37.5%), and a ridiculous amount of return touchdowns allowed (7 allowed, to 1 returned for themselves). Of course, most of that was done with Matt Schaub. Case Keenum is now their quarterback. He played well in his debut in Kansas City, completing 15 of 25 for 271 yards and a touchdown, but that was his first action of his career, so I can’t really say that I’m 100% sold on the former undrafted free agent.

However, there’s also a solid chance that Keenum can keep it up. I believe he deserves this 2nd start, even though I don’t think Schaub’s performance this season was representative of the type of quarterback he is. If that’s the case, the Colts, as good of a team as they are, don’t really deserve to be road favorites here. That’s relevant because road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS and 22-4 ATS in divisional games. The Texans are also coming off of a bye as well though and the public is all over Indianapolis. I’m not confident in either side, but if I had to, I’d fade the heavy public lean on Indianapolis and go with the possibly underrated Texans.

Houston Texans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Houston +2

Confidence: None

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