Colts

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-11) at Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

The Texans fired Head Coach Gary Kubiak last week. They probably won’t give any effort this week right? That seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Colts as 6 point favorites here. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense, as the odds makers always win in the long run, especially when the public is wrong. I don’t think the Texans firing Kubiak last week will really negatively affect them this week. If anything, it might help them as 6 of the last 8 teams to fire their head coach covered the following week. That’s a small sample size, but definitely seems to disprove the notion that teams who fire their Head Coach show no effort the following week. These are still professional football players and they are now playing to impress a new coaching staff and possibly a new team.

The Texans have shown they’ll get up for important games, almost knocking off both the Patriots and these Colts in recent weeks. The Colts are also in freefall, with a -59 point differential in their last 6 games since the bye. For comparison’s sake, the “lowly” Texans have a point differential of just -28 over their past 6 games since the bye. The Colts are not as good as their record, while the Texans are not as bad as their record.

The Colts got off to a great start to their season, with wins over Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver, but have been terrible of late, as I alluded to in the last paragraph. A lot of people are blaming this on the absence of Reggie Wayne and that has something to do with it, but he’s just one wide receiver. It’s hard to blame everything, including the defense’s ineptitude, on his absence. More likely, the Colts are just regressing back to their 2012 ways, after a fluky strong start to this season.

Last season, they needed 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished 7-9 or worse to win 11 games, thanks to terrible defense and offensive line play. I think they’re probably still better this season than last season, but they’re still not as good as their current 8-5 record would suggest. They’re 6-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, have one win by more than 8 points (over Jacksonville), have a negative point differential, and rank 17th in DVOA, including 19th in weighted DVOA.

The Texans, meanwhile, are 2-8 in games decided by a touchdown or less and haven’t lost by more than a touchdown since week 6. The Texans might not win this game, but they could keep it close once again with a Colts team that has almost exclusively won their games by a small margin this season. That’s relevant to a game with a 6 point line. The Texans have also been killed by a -6 differential in return touchdowns and a -14 turnover differential, two things that tend to be inconsistent.

In terms of purely rate of moving the chains, the Texans rank 18th, moving them at a 68.59% rate, as opposed to 69.59% for their opponents. The Colts, meanwhile, actually rank 19th, moving them at a 72.36% rate, as opposed to 73.54% for their opponents. I don’t think the Texans are a better team than the Colts and you can’t blindly follow that statistic, but it’s worth noting and it makes sense considering both of these teams’ tendencies to play close games and be on opposite sides of them. Finally, the Texans are in a good spot as underdogs on an 8+ game losing streak. Teams are 53-30 ATS in that spot since 1989 as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed on a long losing streak like that, as long as they are underdogs.

There three reasons why this isn’t a bigger play on the Texans. One, the Texans have the Broncos up next. I have a strong feeling the Texans will bring their “A game” this week for their divisional rival, but they could be distracted with Denver coming to town next week. Teams are 35-66 ATS before being home underdogs of 3 or more since 2012, which the Texans almost definitely will be next week. They might not be focused enough to keep this one close.

Two, Andrew Luck is 9-0 ATS off of a loss in his career, which is something to take notice of. However, he has only once been favored by more than 3.5 points in that scenario, a 7 point win against an eventual 2-14 Chiefs team last year as 6.5 point favorites on the road. The third and final reason is just the uncertainty surrounding the Texans after losing Gary Kubiak last week. They might be able to bring their “A game,” in spite of that, but there are no guarantees. The Texans definitely seem like the right side, but I can’t be terribly confident.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Houston Texans 20

Pick against spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-4)

I’m split on this one. On one hand, the Colts are playing pretty bad football right now. They’re 3-2 since the bye, which doesn’t sound bad, but their 3 wins came by a combined 14 points against the Titans twice and the Texans. Their 2 losses came by a combined 59 points against the Cardinals and Rams. They haven’t had a particularly tough schedule, but they are still -45 in point differential since the bye.

Some people may point to the loss of Reggie Wayne as the reason why and that would be a valid point. Wayne went down right before the bye in a huge win against the Broncos and they’ve really struggled since that game. Andrew Luck has completed 107 of 194 (55.2%) for 1219 yards (6.28 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in his last 5 games without Wayne. However, their offensive line and defense have been playing down to their 2012 level again.

Overall, they are playing like 2012 again, when they needed 7 wins by 7 points or fewer against teams that finished with 7 wins or fewer in order to get to the 11-5 record at which they finished. They are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents, which ranks 16th in the NFL and even that takes into account their hot start to the season when they beat San Francisco, Seattle, and Denver.

That could mean trouble for them here as they did terribly on the road against quality football teams last season, losing by 12 in Houston, 20 in Chicago, and 35 in New England. The Bengals are certainly a quality football team who could blow them out if they play like they did last year. They’ve been dominant at home this year, winning all 5 games straight up and against the spread with an average margin of victory of 16.4 points per game. I’m not confident in Cincinnati because this spread seems awfully high at 6.5 (even rate of moving the chains says this line should be around 5.5) and because the Colts might play up to their level of competition again, but the Bengals should be the right side.

Cincinnati Bengals 27 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Cincinnati -6.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (-5)

Record: 7-4

What the hell happened to the Colts? The obvious answer is to blame it on Reggie Wayne’s absence and that would have some basis. Wayne tore his ACL in the Denver game before the bye and in the 4 games since, Andrew Luck has completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.29 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. However, I don’t think that tells the whole story. I think, in addition to that, they are proving that the start of their season was a bit of a fluke and now they are really the team I thought they’d be to start the season, a team that, because of their offensive line and defensive struggles, would not make the playoffs. Last season, this team won 7 games by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 games or fewer and they ranked 25th in DVOA. They’re playing like that again. If it wasn’t for close wins in Tennessee and Houston, Indianapolis would be 5-6 now and the 6-5 Titans would be leading the division. That didn’t happen, so the Colts are probably a playoff team, but I don’t think they’ll do much once there, much like last year.

Week 12 Studs

LT Anthony Castonzo

LE Cory Redding

RE Ricky Jean-Francois

ROLB Robert Mathis

Week 12 Duds

C Samson Satele

LOLB Bjoern Werner

SS LaRon Landry

FS Antoine Bethea

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (5-6) at Indianapolis Colts (7-4)

What the hell happened to the Colts? The same team that knocked off the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks before the bye has been playing terrible football in the four weeks since the bye, barely beating Tennessee and Houston by a field goal (after trailing early in both games), and getting blown out in Arizona and at home by St. Louis. The obvious answer is to blame it on Reggie Wayne’s absence and that would have some basis. Wayne tore his ACL in the Denver game before the bye and in the 4 games since, Andrew Luck has completed 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.29 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions.

However, I don’t think that tells the story. I think, in addition to that, there are proving that the start of their season was a bit of a fluke and now they are really the team I thought they’d be to start the season, a team that, because of their offensive line and defensive struggles, would not make the playoffs. Last season, this team won 7 games by 7 points or less against teams that won 7 games or fewer and they ranked 25th in DVOA. They’re playing like that again. Their home blowout loss to the Rams compares to their loss to the Jets last week. Their near losses to Houston and Tennessee bring back memories of all of their close wins over inferior competition last year. And their blowout loss in Arizona is similar to every single time they went on the road to a competent opponent last season.

The defense was amazing to start this season, but now is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate. The offensive line really hasn’t ever been good. They can’t run the ball, just like last season. And now the passing offense is struggling as a result of Wayne’s absence. They are moving the chains at exactly the same rate their opponents are, a differential that is 16th in the NFL. And the most troubling part is they are plummeting so things could only get worse. In terms of DVOA, they are 17th.

Unfortunately, the odds makers seem to have caught on. This line was 3 points 2 weeks ago in Tennessee, which would translate to 9 in Indianapolis, and even last week, the early line on this game was Indianapolis -6, but because of the Colts’ struggles, it’s now down to 4. That’s a huge shift. That being said, the line is totally justified. I mentioned the Colts were 16th in rate of moving the chains differential (and plummeting), the Titans are 18th, moving the chains at a 73% rate, but allowing opponents to do so at a 74% rate. They’ve been a decent team all season and haven’t really skipped a beat without Jake Locker because he wasn’t why they were winning and because Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the best backups in the NFL.

They’re also in a good spot, 2 weeks removed from that loss to the Colts. Since 1989, teams are 16-5 ATS as underdogs two weeks after losing as underdogs to the same divisional opponent. These two teams are going to be so familiar with each other and that’s one of the great equalizers. That favors the underdog. I just wish we were still getting more line value and that Tennessee didn’t have to go to Denver next week. Teams are 34-69 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. The Titans should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Tennessee Titans 20

Pick against spread: Tennessee +4

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Colts, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (7-3) at Arizona Cardinals (6-4)

The Cardinals are favored by 3 over the Colts, which seems to be confusing the public as they are all over the underdog here, which is very rare. They do have somewhat of a point. The Colts are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, while the Cardinals are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. These two teams don’t seem even when you look at that, but this line suggests they are.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot, while the Colts are in a good spot. The Colts are non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, as they host the Titans next week. That’s a situation teams are 55-40 ATS in since 2002. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road favorites, as they go to Philadelphia next week. Teams are 62-86 ATS in that situation since 2002. Combining those, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, you can definitely argue how relevant that is to this situation because it’s not that likely the Cardinals overlook the Colts because of a game with the Eagles next week. The Colts won’t be distracted, but the Cardinals might not either, especially in the Bruce Arians/Chuck Pagano bowl. Speaking of that, Bruce Arians was Andrew Luck’s offensive coordinator last year, so that could give the Cardinals a leg up on him.

The Colts’ offense also hasn’t been nearly as good since they lost Reggie Wayne, while the defense is proving their strong play in the early part of the season was a fluke. They haven’t done anything of note since losing Reggie Wayne in that huge win over Denver. Since then, they barely beat Houston and Tennessee and got blown out by the Rams at home, with Andrew Luck completing 70 of 123 (56.9%) for 856 yards (6.96 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions in the process. At the end of the day, I’m going with the Cardinals because I want to fade the public dog, especially with reverse line movement increasing this line (the definition of a trap line). However, I’m not confident at all.

Arizona Cardinals 24 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Arizona -3

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (+0)

Record: 6-3

There are definitely some fluky aspects to the Colts’ loss to the Rams. The Rams led just one methodical touchdown drive, scoring on two return touchdowns, and two long passing touchdowns. That forced the Colts to give up their game plan and put them out of their comfort zone. Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. The Colts were clearly distracted by their upcoming game with the Titans on Thursday. However, the Colts certainly didn’t play well fluky things aside and they haven’t really played well over the past 2 weeks without Reggie Wayne. It’s a concern going forward. We’ll see how they play against the Titans.

Week 10 Studs

LE Cory Redding

ROLB Robert Mathis

Week 10 Duds

QB Andrew Luck

RG Mike McGlynn

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3)

Both of these teams lost as huge home favorites last week, the Colts lost 38-8 at home to the Rams and the Titans losing 29-27 to the Jaguars. It’s very likely both teams were caught looking forward to this huge divisional game and that last week’s performance was just a fluke for both teams. Both teams won the first down battle despite the loss and they lost for fluky reasons. The Titans fumbled 3 times and lost the turnover battle by 2, as a result.

Meanwhile, there are definitely some fluky aspects to the Colts’ loss to the Rams. The Rams led just one methodical touchdown drive, scoring on two return touchdowns, and two long passing touchdowns. That forced the Colts to give up their game plan and put them out of their comfort zone. Since 1989, 5 teams have won a game by 25 or more despite losing the first down battle by 9 or more. 2 of them are the 2013 Rams. I think we can give both of these teams a pass for what happened last week and essentially just approach this game is if neither of those games ever happened.

Yes, the Titans lost Jake Locker for the season last week, but he wasn’t the reason they were in the hunt. That would be their solid defense, led by Jurrell Casey, Alterraun Verner, Derrick Morgan, and others, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 71% rate. There’s a reason they were competitive with both Kansas City and Seattle even without Jake Locker. Fitzpatrick will have the whole week to prepare for this week and he’s one of the better backup quarterbacks in the NFL. Besides, it’s very possible the Colts recent struggles (including a near loss in Houston) are related to the loss of Reggie Wayne, who they lost against Denver before the bye. They haven’t been the same without him.

I’m not saying the Titans are definitely going to win this game, but the public seems to be giving the Colts a pass for last week, but not the Titans, even though they were in the same situation. The public is all over the Colts -3 because “how can the Colts not beat the Titans by 3 or more?” I love fading heavy public favorites when an opportunity presents itself and I also love getting a field goal or more with a home team unless that team is completely terrible. Remember, the Colts were 10 point favorites over the Rams last week. This line suggests the Colts would be 9 point favorites over the Titans. Considering the Titans covered as 3 point favorites in St. Louis 2 weeks ago, that makes no sense. I’m not confident or anything, but the Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 24 Indianapolis Colts 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Colts, Uncategorized

Last week: 7 (+1)

Record: 6-2

Andrew Luck’s struggles against the Texans without Reggie Wayne in a near loss have to be concerning. Luck completed 18 of 40 for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. He made plays when needed and a lot of the blame falls on his receivers, but it’s a concern. The Colts have to hope it’s not something that continues going forward. Fortunately, their schedule isn’t too bad. Among their final 8 opponents, only Cincinnati and Kansas City are currently above .500, though Arizona and Tennessee (twice) could give them some trouble if they’re not careful.

Week 9 Studs

WR TY Hilton

DT Aubrayo Franklin

MLB Pat Angerer

Week 9 Duds

LG Hugh Thornton

RG Mike McGlynn

MLB Jerrell Freeman

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (3-6) at Indianapolis Colts (6-2)

On paper, this line might be a little bit too high. The Colts are moving the chains at a 79% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Rams are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 7, instead of 9.5. That being said, that doesn’t take into account that the Rams have lost Sam Bradford for the season.

Kellen Clemens has taken over and has completed 37 of 70 for 387 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. The supporting cast around him has stepped up and the Rams have only lost by a combined 12 points in their last 2 games, decent playing a top level Seattle team and a decent Tennessee team. However, this week they go on the road, which is a different story. This line might even too small.

Indianapolis could be distracted though. They have a big game against the Titans in a few days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. It’s tough to pick a side though. This line shifted from 12 to 9.5 in the past week for no real reason. I think I’ll just take the Colts as long as the line is lower than 10 points. I’m not confident though.

Indianapolis Colts 23 St. Louis Rams 13

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -9.5

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]