Colts

Indianapolis Colts sign OLB Erik Walden

stevenlourie Colts

It’s not often I hate a contract that isn’t worth a ton of money, but I hate this 16 million dollar deal the Colts gave to Erik Walden, over 4 years. They apparently view Walden as a cost effective option at rush linebacker opposite Robert Mathis, but he’s not a starting caliber player at all. Pressed into action due to injuries in each of the last two years in Green Bay, Walden ended up grading out as ProFootballFocus’ worst rated 3-4 outside linebacker by a wide margin in each of the two seasons, despite never being a full-time starter. The Colts have got to be kidding themselves if they think he can start for this team next year. They would have been much better off drafting someone at pick #24. It won’t surprise me at all if Walden struggles and gets benched for Jerry Hughes mid-season.

Grade: F

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Indianapolis Colts 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Colts

The Colts did an amazing job going from 2 wins in 2011 to 11 in 2012, the 2nd biggest turnaround in NFL history. Even more impressive, they did it in the face of, as Chuck Pagano would call it, “circumstances,” as Head Coach Pagano had to leave 3 games into the season after being diagnosed with leukemia. “ChuckStrong” became a rallying cry for this team, which went 9-3 in their next 12 games under interim Head Coach Bruce Arians, giving Pagano back a 10-5 team when he returned late in December after being declared cancer free. They closed out the season with an emotional home win over division rival Houston.

However, the Colts didn’t really play as well as their 11-5 record would have suggested. They were the worst rated DVOA team (25th) to ever win 11 games. They won just 3 games against .500 or better teams and only two games by more than a touchdown. They had 4 losses by double digits and finished in the bottom half of the NFL in points per game and points allowed per game, ranking 18th and 21st respectively. Once they got to the playoffs, it was clear they couldn’t hang with the big boys in a 24-9 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

If the Colts were to play as well next year as they played this year, they’d probably win around 7 games. Their schedule will get tougher and while their 9-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less is impressive, that tends to even out to .500 in the long run. Besides, when you realize that most of those close wins came against the likes of Tennessee, Kansas City, Detroit, and Buffalo, it’s not so impressive.

The good news for the Colts is that they are young and clearly well managed so there’s no reason to believe they can’t play better next season than they did this year. That may not reflect itself in the win/loss record and I don’t know if I’ll pick them to make the playoffs again next year, but they have a bright future. This off-season will be all about adding more talent to this roster and building around Andrew Luck.

Guard

The Colts’ biggest weakness was exposed in their post-season loss to the Ravens. The Colts’ offensive line was terrible all year and the Ravens were able to pressure Luck on seemingly every drop back, making it impossible for him to get anything done downfield. They ranked dead last overall in pass block efficiency. Luck was actually one of the best in the league at avoiding sacks, only taking a sack on 14.9% of pressured drop backs, but they need to get him some help at upfront.

The biggest problem was at guard. They struggled for consistency there all year as four different guys, Mike McGlynn, Jeff Linkenbach, Joe Reitz, and Seth Olsen, saw significant action there. Every single one of those four was awful, which isn’t a surprise considering none of them are proven starters. They really need help at this spot.

Cornerback

The Colts’ trade for Vontae Davis didn’t work out, one of the only missteps for this new regime last off-season. He couldn’t stay healthy and they ranked 23rd against the pass this year. He’ll be a free agent next off-season. Cassius Vaughn, Jerraud Powers, and Darius Butler played significant snaps, as well, this season, but only Butler played well and he’s a free agent this off-season. Powers is also a free agent and Vaughn, their worst cornerback, will be a free agent next off-season. Like guard, this is somewhere where they are currently using replacement level talents and need to bring in some blue chip talent.

Nose Tackle

Antonio Johnson really looked out of position playing the 3-4 nose this season. He struggled in all facets of the game and graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 80th ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible. There’s a reason the Colts ranked 31st against the run. A free agent this off-season, the Colts should take this opportunity to bring in a true nose tackle, something they were unable to do last off-season, when converting to this new 3-4 scheme.

Safety

They also used replacement level talent here. Antoine Bethea is a former Pro-Bowler and not a replacement level talent, but he struggled this year, as did journeyman Tom Zbikowsi. Joe Legefed looked alright in limited action, so maybe they’ll give him a shot. Bethea will probably get another shot, because they don’t have another choice, but he’ll be a free agent next off-season. They should add another young player in the mix.

Offensive Tackle

Left tackle Anthony Costanzo was their best offensive lineman and right tackle Winston Justice wasn’t as bad as their interior linemen, but after a strong start to the season, the journeyman replacement level talent started to show his true colors. They might be okay with him there another season, but they might not be. They should look to at least bring in competition.

Rush Linebacker

I don’t know if it was injuries, or age (33 in February), or that he was a poor fit in the new 3-4 scheme, but Dwight Freeney really didn’t play well by his standards this year. He’s a free agent this off-season and they can’t really count on him long term and he’d probably be best off somewhere where he could play in the 4-3 scheme he’s been dominant in throughout his career. If he leaves, Jerry Hughes, a former 1st round pick, is an obvious candidate to replace him, but he’s been inconsistent at best in his career. Meanwhile, on the other side of the formation, Robert Mathis is heading into his age 32 season.

3-4 Defensive End

Yeah, I’m going to use that term again, replacement level talent. It’s remarkable that the Colts were able to have this kind of success this season considering the previous regime hadn’t drafted a Pro-Bowler since 2006. They used a bunch of different replacement level talent guys at this position this year and only Drake Nevis, a 2011 3rd round pick, was even decent. Again, they ranked 31st against the run. Cory Redding was a free agent acquisition from Baltimore, where Pagano was once defensive coordinator, but he didn’t play as well as he normally does. His age, 33 this November, probably has something to do with that.

Wide Receiver

TY Hilton and LaVon Brazill were quite the finds in the 3rd and 6th round respectively last year. However, veteran Donnie Avery is a free agent, as is the injury prone Austin Collie, while #1 receiver Reggie Wayne is heading into his age 35 season. He’s coming off a fantastic year, but even the average top-20 receiver (all-time) has his final 1000 yard season at somewhere around age 34.5, which is right where Wayne is right now. His abilities could fall off a cliff at any moment. Another young receiver could be needed.

Center

I don’t know what the cap hit would be like to cut him since they just signed him to a 3-year deal last off-season, but center Samson Satele is not worth the 2.7 million he’s due next season. He was a big part of their poor offensive line play and ranked among the worst centers in the league, 33rd out of 36 eligible on ProFootballFocus. If he’s not back, AQ Shipley, who played well when Satele missed time with injury this year, deserves the first crack at the job, but they’ll need competition. Either way, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them use a late round selection on a center.

Punter

Pat McAfee and his boom stick are free agents this off-season. He’ll need to either be re-signed or replaced.

Punt Returner

TY Hilton returned punts at a high level this season, but they might not keep him in that role long term as he becomes a bigger part of the offense.

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Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Colts, Ravens

For analysis on Indianapolis click here
For analysis on Baltimore click here

The public is all over the dog on this one and it’s not just the public. I can’t tell you how many media people I’ve seen make the Colts their upset pick. If there’s one thing I’ve learned, whenever everyone is predicting the same upset, it rarely upsets and it’s always good to bet on a slighted favorite. The Colts are overrated as they have just 3 wins against .500 or better teams and 2 total wins by more than a touchdown.

They’re even worse on the road where they are 4-4, including 4 double digit losses and 3 by 20 or more. I think they get their 5th double digit loss here in Baltimore against a very good Ravens team at home. They’re just 2 losses removed from a 16 game home winning streak. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play because, of those 16 wins, 9 have come by a touchdown or less. I really like having to only lay 7 with the Ravens rather than the 9 I would have earlier in the week. All the action on Indianapolis has really brought the line down. It’s at 6.5 in some places.

Baltimore Ravens 31 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against spread: Baltimore -7 (-110) 3 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Colts

The Colts shocked the world this year, going from 2 wins to 11 wins and the 5 seed in the AFC. However, they haven’t been as good as their record. They enter the postseason at -30 in points differential (the worst ever by an 11+ win team). This because they have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown and 4 losses, including 3 losses by 20 or more.

They are 11-5 by virtue of their 9-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or more. A lot of people think this is impressive and point to this as a reason why Andrew Luck should be Rookie of the Year over Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin in spite of the latter two’s far superior stats (stats aren’t everything, but sometimes you can’t ignore them: Griffin and Wilson were 3rd and 4th in QB rating, Luck was 26th). I disagree with that as record in close games tends to be inconsistent on a game to game passes (teams who win a game by 7 points or less win the following game 52% of the time if it’s also decided by 7 points or less).

I don’t believe that some teams “know how to win games” more than others, just that some teams happen to play slightly better than their opponent more often than their opponent plays slightly better than they do. But even if that’s true, consider the Colts’ schedule. The Colts played a ridiculous 10 teams this season who won 7 or fewer games, going 9-1 in those 7 games, with 8 of those 9 wins coming by a touchdown or less. As a result of their weak schedule and unimpressive points differential, the Colts were DVOA’s 25th ranked team this year, worst ever by an 11 win team. They managed to win 11 games despite ranking 18th and 21st respectively in scoring offense and scoring defense. They only thing they were good at this season was winning close games, something I don’t think they can keep up.

And even if you believe regular season success in close games does predict success in close playoff games, you can’t argue that regular season success in close games against the Titans, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Lions predicts success in close postseason games against the likes of Baltimore, New England, and Denver. In fact, those games probably won’t even be that close considering the Colts struggle against playoff caliber teams on the road, where all of their playoff games will be unless they somehow face the Bengals in the AFC Championship (which won’t happen because they’ll have to win 2 road games first).

It is true that they are 3-2 against playoff teams this season and they are the only AFC team to have two wins over playoff teams from the superior NFC (in fact, while the AFC division winners are 0-6 against NFC playoff teams, wild cards Cincinnati and Indianapolis are somehow a combined 3-0). However, all 3 of those wins came at home and two of them came by a combined 6 points (I’ll get to the 3rd in a minute). On the road, they’ve lost in Houston by 12 and in New England by 35, their only two road games against playoff teams. They also have road losses by 20 in Chicago and 26 against the Jets (I think the simplest takeaway from this write up is that the Colts lost by 26 to the Jets).

I said I’d get to the 3rd win against a playoff team, last week’s 12 point win over the Texans. That was their most impressive game of the season. Not only was it their 3rd win of the season against an opponent who finished .500 or better, but it was their 2nd win of the season by more than a touchdown. It was a convincing win against a legitimate team, something they hadn’t had to that point in the season and it couldn’t have come at a better time, one week before the playoffs. Am I more sold on them as a result? Yes. Do I still think they’re the worst playoff team in the league this year? Yes. Houston, while they are a legitimate team, is also not as good as their record, for many of the same reasons as the Colts (easy schedule, 5-0 record in close games). It was also at home and I’m still not convinced they can even hang close with a playoff team on the road.

Projected fate: Lose to Baltimore in Wild Card round

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Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans

Houston Texans (12-3) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5)

The Texans need this win to lock up not only the #1 seed, but also a first round bye. If they lose, they’ll need Denver or New England to lose as double digit favorites or they’ll be the #3 seed. The Colts, meanwhile, are locked into the #5 seed, but the Texans are a huge divisional rival who beat the Colts two weeks ago and the Colts would love to play spoiler, knock them out of a first round bye, and pick up a big win and momentum going into the playoffs. They also have Head Coach Chuck Pagano returning from his leukemia treatment this week and they’d undoubtedly love to get a huge emotional home win with him returning. That being said, we might not get a whole game of starters from them.

For that reason, this line has actually moved 3 points from where it was last week, even though the Texans got blown out at home by the Vikings last Sunday. I don’t think that’s right. Playoff bound home dogs are 16-7 ATS during week 17 since 1989. This makes sense for two reasons. The first and most obvious is that they’re too good to be laying points at home before a playoff game. But the second reason is that most of those teams are probably resting starters and teams tend to underestimate playoff bound team’s backups. Playoffs teams tend to be deep and well coached.

Either way, I think that bodes well for the Colts this week, especially given all the intangible things the Colts have to play for, regardless of whether or not the starters do play the whole game. Chuck Pagano did tell the media that he plans to play his starters and play to win the game, saying that its “not in our makeup” to rest anyone, though I suppose he could still pull starters late if it’s a blowout either way, which would greatly decrease the backdoor cover possibility.

However, I don’t think we’re going to get a blowout either way. Certainly I’m not going to pick a Colts’ blowout, but the Texans really aren’t playing well enough to be laying this many points in Indianapolis. Seriously, look at their last 7 games: 13-6 win over the Jay Cutler-less Bears who proved to be not as good as their record, overtime games against Jacksonville and Detroit, a 24-10 win in Tennessee, a blowout loss in New England, a 12 point win over the Colts (more on that later), and a 23-6 home loss to the Vikings.

They really haven’t played good football since they lost Brian Cushing, including a “closer than it should have been” win in New York against the Jets and a home blowout loss against the Packers. They are 12-3, but they rank 8th in the NFL in net points per drive and because of a fairly weak schedule in the AFC South, they’re even worse than that in DVOA, ranking 10th, including 13th in weighted DVOA, which puts greater weight on more recent games.

Back to that Colts game 2 weeks ago, they did win by 12, but that was in Houston and it was closer than the final score. I’ve called the Colts overrated before and I stand by that, but I think Houston is equally overrated for the same reasons, lots of blowout losses and a weak schedule. After all, even though the Bears, Jets, and Patriots all beat the Colts by more than 20 on the road, the Texans beat them by just 12 and now they have to go to Indianapolis, where they Colts have been a lot better than on the road. They are 6-1 there, including their only win over a definite playoff team, the Packers.

It’s rare that this happens (which is why I call the Colts overrated), but we’re actually get line value with the Colts this week because of how overrated the Texans are too. The Colts actually rank 23rd in net points per drive, but if you take the difference between the Colts’ and the Texans’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game) and add 2.5 points to the Colts’ side for home field, you get that the Texans should be -5.5. It’s a significant play on the Colts.

Public lean: Indianapolis (60% range)

Houston Texans 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +7 (-110) 3 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 11 (+0)

Record: 10-5

Net points per drive: -0.30 (23rd)

DVOA: -20.8% (28th)

Weighted DVOA: -19.3% (26th)

Studs

LG Joe Reitz: Did not allow a pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 2 attempts

ROLB Dwight Freeney: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 5 quarterback hurries on 23 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

LE Lawrence Guy: 1 quarterback hurry on 13 pass rush snaps, 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

Duds

RT Jeff Linkenbach: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 4 attempts

WR Donnie Avery: Caught 5 passes for 38 yards on 7 attempts on 41 pass snaps, 1.4 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR TY Hilton: Caught 2 passes for 34 yards on 4 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Cassius Vaughn: Allowed 3 catches for 101 yards on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist

LOLB Robert Mathis: Did not record a pressure on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

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Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Colts

Indianapolis Colts (9-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)

The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in that first ChuckStrong game and that’s it. They got blown out in Chicago, New York, New England and last week, to a lesser extent, in Houston. Meanwhile, they have just 1 win by more than a touchdown, winning by 17 in Jacksonville. They’ve played close games with the likes of Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, and Cleveland.

As a result, they rank much worse in net points per drive than their record would suggest and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which takes the Colts’ cupcake schedule into account. They rank 24th in net points per game at -0.32. In DVOA, they are 28th and 26th in weighted DVOA. The Chiefs rank dead last in everything and have a net points per drive of -0.97, but we’re still getting line value with them. If you take the difference between their net points per drive and the Colts’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 to the Chiefs’ side for home field, you get that this line should be Indianapolis -4.5, before even taking into account that the Colts are even worse in DVOA than net points per drive.

This makes sense. This line is -7 and as bad as the Chiefs are, the Colts have only beaten one team by more than a touchdown on that was on Thursday Night, when weird things tend to happen. Recently, the spread has really caught up to the Colts. After starting out 6-3 ATS, they are just 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games, including a big loss in New England and near losses to the Lions and the Titans. The Colts’ two only covers in that stretch were that comeback win against the Lions and a home game against the Bills, which they won by 7 on a return touchdown.

Besides, this is an obvious sandwich situation for the Colts. They just lost to the Texans and have to play them again next week. They’re also basically locked into the 5 seed in the AFC. Why would they get up for the crappy Chiefs? Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs again. They’ll see this as an easy breather game. Teams are 23-39 ATS in that spot in a non-divisional game in between two divisional games. Going off that, teams are 27-47 ATS as road favorites of 3 or more before being home dogs of 3 or more since 1989, including 5-13 ATS in a non-divisional game before being a divisional game.

Ugh, when I was watching the Chiefs not manage a single first down in the first half against the league’s worst defense last week, I decided not to pick them for a significant play to cover another game the rest of the way. Brady Quinn is just too terrible, especially missing Dwayne Bowe, his only good receiver. However, when this line moved from +6 to +7, I talked myself into taking them for a significant play.

This is just not a good spot at all for an overrated Colts team and the public is still all over them (I love fading heavy public leans). And besides, whenever I make teams unbettable and refuse to pick them for a significant play even in a great situation, they seem to cover the following week. Anyone can cover on any given Sunday in the NFL (that’s the whole point of the spread). Brady Quinn is 2-0 ATS in his last two home games and the Chiefs are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games. The Colts, however, are my survivor pick this week.

Public lean: Indianapolis (90% range)

Sharps lean: IND 13 KC 5

Final thoughts: Worth noting this is at +6.5 in LV Hilton. I wouldn’t make it a significant play at +6.5, but getting the full touchdown is too good to pass on. We also have reverse line movement as this has moved from +7 to +6, which is good to see because it means sharps in general are on the Chiefs, but I’m not budging from 3 units at +7. I need the full touchdown and I don’t want to put anything more on the Chiefs. This is the one 3+ unit pick I’m nervous about.

Indianapolis Colts 17 Kansas City Chiefs 13 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA, STL)

Pick against spread: Kansas City +7 (-110) 3 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 12 (+1)

Record: 9-5

Net points per drive: -0.32 (24th)

DVOA: -21.0% (28th)

Weighted DVOA: -18.8% (26th)

The Colts lost to the Texans last week and still only have one impressive win on their schedule and by impressive win I mean a win over a playoff team or a blowout of a bad team. They beat the Packers in that first ChuckStrong game and that’s it. They got blown out in Chicago, New York, New England and last week, to a lesser extent, in Houston. Meanwhile, they have just 1 win by more than a touchdown, winning by 17 in Jacksonville. They’ve played close games with the likes of Tennessee (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, Miami, and Cleveland. They should finish 10-6, by beating the Chiefs and losing to the Texans (unless the Texans rest starters), I don’t think they’ll even keep it close on the road in Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs.

Studs

ROLB Dwight Freeney: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE Cory Redding: 3 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

RB Mewelde Moore: Rushed for 6 yards (3 after contact) on 4 attempts, 1 fumble

LG Joe Reitz: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -7 yards on 4 attempts

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 3 attempts

RT Jeff Linkenbach: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 44 yards on 4 attempts

WR Reggie Wayne: Caught 3 passes for 14 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch

CB Vontae Davis: Allowed 8 catches for 119 yards on 10 attempts, 10 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Colts, Texans

Indianapolis Colts (9-4) at Houston Texans (11-2)

The Texans were calling last week’s game in New England their biggest game in franchise history and rightfully so. This is a very young franchise that has played just 2 playoff games in its history and going to New England as an 11-1 #1 seed in week 14 on Monday Night Football is almost as big as it gets. The Texans got destroyed, losing 42-14, which had to be demoralizing. Teams tend to struggle off a Monday Night Football blowout anyway. It’s just not enough time to regroup. Teams are 23-38 ATS since 2002 off a Monday Night Football of 17+, including 2-11 ATS in a divisional game off a road loss.

Meanwhile, for the Colts, this is their biggest game of the Andrew Luck era. The Texans are still the class of the AFC South and still are tied for the league’s best record at 11-2. Because of the Texans’ loss last week, the Colts now control their own destiny for the AFC South. Granted, to do that, they’d have to beat the Texans twice in three games, which seems very improbable, but don’t try to tell them that. This is a gigantic game for them. They’ll be extra focused as they don’t have anything to worry about next week, with only a trip to Kansas City on the schedule.

The Colts have the major trends advantage. I already mentioned the teams off a MNF blowout one, but there are more. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons. Going of that, double digits dogs, like the Colts are here, are 46-29 ATS since 2002 before being favorites, including 14-7 ATS as divisional double digit dogs before being non-divisional favorites. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 39-16 ATS. Also since 1989, teams are 16-7 ATS as double digit dogs before being away favorites, which the Colts will be in Kansas City next week.

All that being said, I still feel the Colts are overrated. Of their 9 wins, only 1 has come by more than a touchdown. Meanwhile, 3 of their 4 losses have come by 20 or more. As a result, they have a -37 points differential that is significantly worse than their 9-4 record. For reference, the 5-8 Dolphins are at -36. They’ve also played a joke schedule. They are playing a last place schedule in the weaker of the two conferences. They play in arguably the worst division in football and they have yet to play Houston, the only other competent team in their division, thanks to a scheduling quirk. They have had to face the tough NFC North, but also the crappy AFC East, which is probably the 2nd worst division in the NFL, so that kind of balances out.

As a result of this, they rank 22nd in net points per drive at -0.30 and even worse in DVOA and weighted DVOA, which take things like schedule into account. They rank 28th and 26th respectively in those two statistics. The Texans, meanwhile, rank 6th in net points per drive at 0.55. In DVOA, they are also worse than they are in net points per drive. After all, they haven’t faced a particularly tough schedule either. They rank 8th in both.

We can safely say that any real line computed from net points per drive will hold up to DVOA. If we take the difference between these two teams’ net points per drives and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team) and add 2.5 points for home field advantage, we get a real line of Houston -12. That means we have line value with the Texans, before even taking into account that Houston has had the slightly tougher schedule, playing a 1st place schedule, instead of a last place schedule.

In spite of this, the public is still on the Colts, which makes them a public underdog. I love fading the public every chance I get, but I especially love fading them when they back a dog. The public always loses money in the long run. Despite the fact that the Colts are publicly backed, this line, which looks weird if you only consider records, is getting even bigger. It opened around 8 or 8.5 and now it’s at 10. That’s reverse line action and is normally the sign of a trap line. Trap lines are much more common when the public is on a favorite, but in theory it can happen when the public is on a dog.

I think the odds makers have known the Colts are overrated for a long time. They’re not stupid. They know all the net points per drive stuff and all this stuff I mention. That’s why they were +9.5 in New England, where they got blown out as public dogs. That’s why they opened -3 for the Bills at home and then dropped down to -2.5 even though the public was all over the Colts. They easily could have lost that game if not for a special teams touchdown and even a 7 point home win over the Bills is nothing to brag about.

The following week, we had a similar situation to the one here, with the Colts being a public dog and the line moving in the opposite direction as they opened as 5 point dogs against a 4-win Detroit team, but ended up being 7 point dogs when the lines closed, in spite of all the public action on the Colts. And they were down 12 in that game to the crappy Lions, before mounting an improbable comeback. Last week, they opened as 5.5 home favorites against the crappy Titans. That went down to 4.5 before the end of the week even though the Colts were the most heavily backed public team of the week and the Colts did not cover, beating the crappy Titans by just 4 and even trailing by multiple scores early in the game.

All the trends say the Colts are the right side, but I just can’t take them. They’ve only beaten one good team all season, the Packers in that ChuckStrong game early in the season and that was at home. They’ve gotten blown out by the only two good teams they’ve faced on the road, losing by 20 in Chicago and 35 in New England.

They really struggle on the road in general, with only 3 road wins against the crappy Jaguars, the crappy Lions, after a huge comeback, and the crappy Titans, in overtime by 6. Meanwhile, they’ve lost by 20 in Chicago, 35 in New England, even the freaking Jets blew them out by 26. I really don’t think they can hang with the Texans on the road. Even with all the trends in their favor, this looks like a blowout waiting to happen and the odds makers actions support that. They’re certainly expecting a blowout and they’re not a bad group of people to have agree with you. I can’t put a big play on the Texans, but they should be the right side.

Public lean: Indianapolis (50% range)

Houston Texans 27 Indianapolis Colts 16

Pick against spread: Houston -10 (-110) 2 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 12 (+0)

Record: 9-4

Net points per drive: -0.30 (22nd)

DVOA: -20.1% (28th)

Weighted DVOA: -19.0% (26th)

This is a team that is not nearly as good as their record, but record is all that will matter when the season ends and the playoffs start. They have 9 wins right now and an easy game against the Chiefs to give them 10. In fact, in the AFC, 9 would probably get them a playoff spot. I don’t give them much chance in either of their two games against the Texans though and I don’t think they’ll win a playoff game.

Studs

RB Vick Ballard: Rushed for 94 yards (48 after contact) on 19 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 10 yards on 1 attempt

LT Anthony Castonzo: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 2 attempts

CB Darius Butler: Did not allow a completion on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

P Pat McAfee: 6 kickoffs, 6 touchbacks, 74.0 yards per kickoff, 20.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 4 punts for 213 yards, 2 inside 20, 1 return for 14 yards, 49.8 net yards per punt

K Adam Vinateri: 2/2 FG (40, 53)

Duds

QB Andrew Luck: 16 of 34 for 196 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions, 3 drops, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 65.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 23 of 39 drop backs (4 sacks, 1 scramble, 5 of 18, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

LG Seth Olsen: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 5 attempts

C Samson Satele: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 21 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 4 attempts

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

RT Winston Justice: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 23 pass block snaps

RT Jeff Linkenbach: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 17 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Donnie Avery: Caught 3 passes for 31 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

TE Dwayne Allen: Caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 3 attempts on 22 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 7 pass block snaps

CB Cassius Vaughn: Allowed 10 catches for 141 yards on 14 attempts, 1 interception, 2 pass deflections, 9 solo tackles, 2 stops, 3 missed tackles

ROLB Dwight Freeney: 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, no tackles

NT Antonio Johnson: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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