Colts

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7)

Every once in a while I kick myself for not taking a line the week before. I’ve never put money on an early line, but here’s one instance I wish I had. Jacksonville was -1 last week. Even if Indianapolis had lost to Miami, I would have put a big play against Blaine Gabbert as a favorite. Aside from the obvious Blaine Gabbert sucks stuff, divisional home dogs are 10-28 ATS before being divisional double digit road dogs since 1989. The Jaguars go to Houston next weekend.

At the same time, teams are 57-82 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, the classic sandwich game. Jacksonville lost to Detroit as dogs last week. Meanwhile, road dogs trying to avenge a same season home upset loss are 50-25 ATS since 2002. The Colts lost at home as favorites to the Jaguars earlier this season.

Not only is that a good spot, things are completely different for these two teams than it was last time they played. The Colts have won 4 of 5 since, with that one loss coming in a game in which they were flat off a huge emotional win, the first ChuckStrong victory. Meanwhile, Maurice Jones-Drew is out for the Jaguars. He was 40% of their offense this year, in terms of yards from scrimmage, before his injury, which was actually down from the 47% he was last year, which was the highest by a non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974.

The Jaguars would have had no chance of winning last time without Maurice Jones-Drew, who rushed for 177 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries against a banged up Colts defense, allowing them to win despite Blaine Gabbert going 10 of 21 for 155 yards and a touchdown. It’s worth noting that 80 of those yards and the touchdown game on one play to Cecil Shorts, in which the receiver did most of the work.

And it wasn’t just in that game. Maurice Jones-Drew was instrumental in the Jaguars’ two wins over the Colts last year, rushing for 283 yards and a score on 50 carries in those 2 games. Gabbert, meanwhile, combined to complete 25 of 40 for just 210 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a pick in those two performances. As bad as the Colts’ were last year, Gabbert could have easily lost both of those games last year without MJD. In MJD’s absence, Rashad Jennings has rushed for a pathetic 148 yards and a touchdown on 50 carries in 3 games.

Speaking of the Colts’ previously banged up defense, they’re much healthier this time around than they were last time around, at least in the front 7, which is most instrumental to stopping the run. Both Dwight Freeney and Pat Angerer missed that game. They are now healthy, as are all of their front 7 starters. The Jaguars won’t be able to run it nearly as well as they did last time thanks to MJD’s injury and the Colts’ improved injury situation in the front 7. The Colts will be missing both starting cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Jerraud Powers, but I have no faith in Gabbert to do much against them.

All that being said, this line has shifted from Jacksonville -1 to Indianapolis -3.5 in the last week. That might not seem like a lot, but it’s one of the biggest single week line shifts I’ve ever seen that was unrelated to a quarterback getting hurt or something like that. The good news is that all it really did was shift to where it should have been all along. The Colts are not overrated because of the line shift; they were just underrated last week, as they had been all season (-1 at home for Cleveland, +2 at home for Miami, -3 at home for Jacksonville, +7 at home for Green Bay, +1 at home for Minnesota, etc.)

We are actually still getting a little bit of line value with the Colts. The yards per play differential method of computing line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -3 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -8. That’s not taking into account fully these two team’s momentum and injury situations. This isn’t because the Colts are particularly good in either statistic. In fact, they’re outside of the top-10 in each, ranking 13th in rate of sustaining drives and 24th in yards per play differential (despite their 5-3 record, they still have a significant negative points differential, -32).

It’s because the Jaguars are so terrible. No one is within 2.4% of their dead last rate of sustaining drives differential and they have the league’s worst yards per play differential as well. The Jaguars are also still in a bad spot. Teams are 34-60 ATS before being divisional double digit dogs since 2002. That makes sense. Teams tend to be distracted before having to play what’s probably the division leader.

The bad news, however, with the line shift, is that there’s still a ton of public action on the Colts. If you don’t know, the odds makers caught killed last week, losing 12 of 14 games, including all of the heavy leans. That’s not going to continue, at the very least. At the most, we might see some sketchy things happen in games with heavy leans. I hate the combination of the giant line shift, the heavy public action, and the odds makers needing to make money back.

It’s reckless to put any money on the Colts this week. The Jaguars suck as well and the Colts, in normal circumstances, should be the right side, in spite of the line movement, because we’re still getting line value with them. However, in this situation, if I had to, gun to my head, Jacksonville would be the pick. This would be a zero-unit pick if I did them.

Indianapolis will probably win because they’re a much better team, but we could easily see some sort of sketchy backdoor cover with the Colts winning by 3. It’s not smart to bet on the Colts this week. They’re also in a few bad spots as well. First, they’re coming off a home win of 3 or fewer. Teams are 30-51 ATS off a close win as home dogs since 2002, including 8-15 ATS as favorites. Since 1989, teams are 7-16 ATS as divisional road favorites off a close home win as dogs. Meanwhile, road favorites are 8-19 ATS since 1989 after 2 or more straight wins as a dog. Finally, teams with 1 win or fewer are 77-42 ATS as divisional dogs after week 8 since 1989. I do like the under a lot more than either side. The under is 70-53 on Thursday Nights. These tend to be ugly games.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Indianapolis Colts 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +3.5 (-110) 1 unit

Total: Under 42.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Colts, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (4-3)

Both of these teams sit at 4-3, meaning this game could easily have playoff implications and one or both of these teams could make the playoffs. I bet you didn’t see that coming. I would say these teams are pretty equal. I had Miami ranked 10th in my Power Rankings and Indianapolis ranked 11th. However, for some reason, Miami is actually road favorites here of 2.5, which makes no sense.

Miami was +2 in New York to play the Jets. The Jets are 4.5 points better than the Colts? I know the Jets beat them, but that was when Indianapolis was flat off of the ChuckStrong game. The Colts are playing much better since then (they’re 3-1 in their last 4 overall) and it’s hard to believe that the Jets are now 4.5 points better than the Colts when the odds makers thought they were just .5 points better a few weeks ago (NY Jets -3.5 at home).

Yards per play and rate of sustaining drives second my opinion that these two are about even. Indianapolis ranks 27th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives, while Miami ranks 21st and 19th respectively. The yards per play differential method of calculating line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -1 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method of calculating line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -3.5.

And that’s not even taking into account Indianapolis’ improving injury situation. Their defense is finally getting healthy after seemingly losing every good defensive player they had for some period of time (though it sounds like Vontae Davis will be out for a while). Cory Redding, Dwight Freeney, and Pat Angerer are all back and it sounds like Angerer will play in more than just a rotational role this week for the first time all season. Robert Mathis could also play this week, after missing 3 games. On the offensive side of the ball, Donald Brown is back. Their offense line is also finally healthy. The only players missing are Davis and Coby Fleener, though the latter wasn’t doing much anyway. For Miami, starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be playing hurt.

At first glance, this looked like a trap line, because this line just didn’t make any sense to me, but there’s not a heavy public lean on Indianapolis, so I ruled that out. In fact, there’s a slight lean on Miami. Given that, I really like Indianapolis this week. Dogs are 86-49 ATS before being favorites since 2011. Going off of that, home dogs are 51-31 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. Indianapolis goes to Jacksonville next week. On top of that, home dogs are 56-33 ATS off a road win as divisional dogs, 6-3 ATS when it was an overtime win and 42-20 ATS when the win was by a touchdown or fewer. It’s a significant play on the Colts.

Public lean: Miami (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Indianapolis covers)

Sharps lean: IND 12 MIA 5

Final update: Solid sharps lean on Indianapolis. Still feeling confident.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 18 (+7)

Record: 4-3

Every year one team goes from 5 wins or fewer into the playoffs. The Vikings are an obvious candidate this year, but why not the Colts, who sit at 4-3. They would be in the playoffs in the crappy AFC if they started today. Their defense is finally getting healthy after seemingly losing every good defensive player they had for some period of time (though it sounds like Vontae Davis will be out for a while). They also have an awfully easy schedule. After playing Miami in a game that could have playoff implications this week (bet you didn’t see that coming), they go to Jacksonville, New England, host Buffalo, go to Detroit, host Tennessee, go to Houston, go to Kansas City, and host Houston (could be resting starters).

Indianapolis Colts

Studs

RG Mike McGlynn: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

MLB Jerrell Freeman: 12 solo tackles, 8 stops, allowed 2 catches for 18 yards on 2 attempts

Duds

WR Donnie Avery: Caught 4 passes for 42 yards on 6 attempts on 43 pass snaps, 3.3 YAC per catch, 1 penalty, 1 drop

LT Anthony Castonzo: Allowed 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 1 attempt

RT Winston Justice: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 6 quarterback hurries on 44 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

CB Jerraud Powers: Allowed 7 catches for 89 yards on 7 attempts, 9 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

ROLB Dwight Freeney: 2 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, no tackles

NT Antonio Johnson: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LOLB Jerry Hughes: 1 sack on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 stop

CB Cassius Vaughn: Allowed 3 catches for 37 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 penalty, 2 kickoff returns for 9 yards

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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans

Indianapolis Colts (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (3-4)

The winner of this game between the Colts and Titans will either be over .500 or at .500 and well in contention for a playoff spot in the AFC. I told you the AFC sucks. The Titans, however, will be hurt in this quest to do so this week by an injury that isn’t getting a lot of attention. Titans’ left tackle Michael Roos had an appendectomy this week and is very unlikely to play.

The casual bettor doesn’t know who he is most likely, which is why this line hasn’t accounted for that loss, but his absence will be huge. Roos is one of the best left tackles in the league. He has been for years and he’s once again playing like it this year, allowing just 2 sacks, 3 quarterback hit, and 10 quarterback hurries, while committing 4 penalties. He’s ProFootballFocus’ 9th ranked offensive tackle. On an offensive line that is generally playing poorly this season, his absence is going to be huge.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, is moving in the opposite direction injury wise, finally. They’ve already had the most defensive injuries in the league this year, aside from the Redskins and maybe the Jets. Dwight Freeney went down early week 1. He’s back and playing well. Pat Angerer missed the first 5 games of the season and was a rotational player last week. He’ll start this week. Vontae Davis, who missed several games, is back. Cory Redding, whose missed the last game and a half, will play this week.

Robert Mathis has yet to practice, but they haven’t ruled him out and in his absence, 2010 1st round pick Jerry Hughes has been quietly playing very well. On a defense that is generally devoid of talent, they’ve had pretty much every single one of their solid players miss time this year, except for Antoine Bethea and maybe Jerraud Powers.

They won’t be a good defense or anything now that they’re all healthy, but they’ll be much more respectable. Right now, they rank 20th against the pass, 28th against the run, and 24th in scoring, while forcing just 3 takeaways, by far worst in the league. That number should increase now that everyone is healthy. It normally evens out over time anyway. They are -9 in turnover differential right now, but all teams team to average the same turnover differential on a weekly basis regardless of what their previous turnover differential was. For more on that, click here.

Tennessee also can’t stop anyone and it’s not because of injuries. They rank 26th against the pass, 22nd against the run, allow a league worst 34.0 points per game, and just made Ryan Fitzpatrick look like a franchise quarterback. They’re horrendous. They may be 3-4, but those 3 wins have come by a combined 7 points against a Pittsburgh team that sucks on the road and who lost to Oakland, the Bills, and the Lions (doesn’t look as good now as it did then).

Meanwhile, their 4 losses have come by a combined 96 points, leading to them having the league’s worst points differential at -89, worse than Jacksonville, worse than Cleveland, worse than Kansas City, worse than Carolina, worse than Oakland, you name it. The Colts aren’t going so well in that department either, at -41 despite their 3-3 record, but that’s not as bad and injuries can be to blame. There’s no way Tennessee deserves to be more than a field goal favorites here, especially given these two team’s injury situations.

These two teams are even in yards per play differential, which translates to a real line of -3 (3 points for home field advantage) using that method. However, Indianapolis ranks 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while Tennessee ranks 30th. Indianapolis is at -1.4% and Tennessee is at -11.0%. If you take the difference and divide by 1.5 and add 3 points for home field, you get that this line should be Indianapolis -3.5. Either way, getting more than a field goal with the Colts in this game is ridiculous.

The trends also work against Tennessee. Indianapolis is in a good spot as dogs before being favorites as teams are 84-46 ATS in this spot since 2011. They host the Dolphins next week. Meanwhile, Tennessee is favorites off of back-to-back wins as dogs by a touchdown or less. Teams are 15-23 ATS in this spot since 1989. It makes sense. Favorites tend to be overconfident and overvalued and maybe even exhausted off of two straight close wins as dogs. Meanwhile, home favorites off a win of 1-3 as road dogs are 24-46 ATS since 2002. Tennessee won by 1 in Buffalo last week.

I’ve said in past picks this week that I’d be reckless to pick a public dog this week, with one exception, because the odds makers will want the gap between favorites and dogs to close (dogs are 63-39 ATS this year and neither dogs or favorites have finished 10 games or more above .500 in at least the last 10 years), but they’ll also want to win money, as usual. Favorites that are not publicly backed kill two birds with one stone for the odds makers and given how rich these guys always end up, you don’t want to be one of those birds. I said the only exception was Washington, for a small play, because I loved them in that spot.

That being said, I lied, sort of. When I first made this pick, there wasn’t a significant lean either way (the odds makers always win when there’s no significant lean because of the juice). Right now, there’s a slight lean on Indianapolis. It’s really slight and I still really like Indianapolis this week for a significant play, but I do final updates on Saturday and if the lean still remains or becomes more significant, I might drop down to 2 units. For now though, I really like Indianapolis this week as the better, healthier team in the better spot.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: IND 15 TEN 8

Final update: Another big play matching up with a sharps lean. Good sign. Still a slight public lean on Indianapolis, but I’m not going to be dropping any units. The public lean didn’t increase.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Tennessee Titans 24 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Colts, Titans

Washington Redskins (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-3)

In a couple other of my picks this week, I said it would be reckless to pick a heavily public backed dog this week with one exception. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money.

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

Well, this game is that one exception and it’s only because there is so much working for Washington in this one. For starters, they’ve been awfully unlucky this season. All 4 of their losses have come by a touchdown or less and 3 in three of them the Redskins had a significant contributor go down with injury who is now healthy. Against St. Louis, they lost top cornerback Josh Wilson. Against Washington, they lost top offensive lineman Trent Williams. Against Atlanta, they lost quarterback Robert Griffin.

All 3 of those guys are healthy now. They’re also missing several other players with injury like Brian Orakpo, Adam Carriker, Fred Davis, Jammal Brown, and Pierre Garcon, but they’ve played pretty well without those 4 all season. This week, they could be without London Fletcher for the first time in forever, but their defense isn’t the reason they’re playing well. They’re already allowing 28.6 points per game.

They also are expected to finally get Brandon Meriweather back from injury, which will help their horrific safety corps. They should be able to keep this one close even if they lose. So I like that we’re getting more than 4 points with them, even though both measures of real line suggest there’s no real line value either way as both calculate a real line of Pittsburgh -5.

2 big trends are in Washington’s favor too. Road dogs off of a road loss are 93-58 ATS since 2007 and Washington lost in New York last week. Meanwhile, dogs before being favorites are 84-46 ATS since 2011. Washington hosts Carolina next week. On top of those two trends, the NFC is clearly the superior conference right now. They are 19-9 in head-to-head competition with the AFC, including 17-11 ATS and 7-0 ATS as dogs. Pittsburgh isn’t playing like their normal selves right now so they don’t deserve to be more than 3 point favorites over any average or better team from the NFC.

Speaking of the Steelers not playing like their normal selves right now, a lot of that has to do with Troy Polamalu’s absence. Since 2009, the Steelers are 8-9 in games without Troy Polamalu and allow 21.4 points per game. With him, they are 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game. He’s already been ruled out for this week. Much is being made about the Steelers’ win over the Bengals in Cincinnati as a reason for why they are “back,” but I’m not very impressed with a 7 point win over a Bengals team that’s lost 3 straight, including to the Browns. The Bengals have never beaten a playoff team in the Andy Dalton era and this year, they’ve only beaten the Browns, Jaguars, and these Bengals (in that game that Williams got hurt).

They’ll still an average team, maybe slightly better until Polamalu returns. They’re also expected to be without right tackle Marcus Gilbert again, which hurts because replacement Mike Adams has really struggled. Both backs Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman could be out again and replacement Jonathan Dwyer has been really up and down this year. I hate betting on a heavily public dog in general, especially this week, which is why it’s a small play, but I like the Redskins.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Pittsburgh covers)

Sharps lean: WAS 14 PIT 8

Final update: No change.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Washington +4.5 (-110) 2 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 18 (+1)

Record: 3-3

If the Colts can go into Tennessee and beat the Titans, who, by the way, have the league’s worst points differential, they’d stand at 4-3 in a horrible AFC. Their remaining schedule is as following: vs. Miami, @ Jacksonville, @ New England, vs. Buffalo, @ Detroit, vs. Tennessee, @ Houston, @ Kansas City, vs. Houston (who could be resting starters). Couldn’t they go 5-4 over those 9 games? 9-7 might do it in the AFC. 10-6 would definitely do it.

We’ve got a sleeper team for this year’s team to go from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs. It’s between them, Miami, San Diego/Denver, and Pittsburgh for those 2 wild cards spots. The issue is that they rank 29th in yards per play differential and 18th in rate of sustaining drives differential, so stats would say they haven’t played that well. That’s why they’re a long shot, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. The good news is they’re getting healthier finally.

Studs

LG Jeff Linkenbach: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 22 yards on 7 attempts

SS Antoine Bethea: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists

FS Tom Zbikowski: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Jerry Hughes: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

Duds

RE Drake Nevis: Did not record a pressure on 31 pass rush snaps, no tackles

LE Ricardo Mathews: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Colts

Cleveland Browns (1-5) at Indianapolis Colts (2-3)

Indianapolis is in a tough spot this week as favorites before being dogs and after losing as dogs. Teams are 54-78 ATS in that spot since 2008. Last week, they lost 35-9 to the Jets as 3.5 point dogs and next week they travel to Tennessee, where they will be dogs as well and in between, they get a home game against the Browns. They could easily be viewing this as a chance for an easy win and get caught looking forward to a game against a divisional rival in Tennessee. By the way, that trend becomes even more significant when the following game is a divisional clash. Teams are 17-30 ATS in this spot before a divisional clash.

In spite of that, the public still expects them to bounce back this week as it’s a fairly significant public lean on Indianapolis. I love to go against public leans as often as I can because the public loses every year. There’s a reason odds makers are rich. The odds makers are not a bad group to be siding with overall because they always make money.

That being said, I’m taking Indianapolis here for several reasons. The first is the line value we’re getting with the Colts. No matter which approach you use to compute line value, either yards per play differential or rate of sustaining drives differential, the Colts are the better team and we’re getting line value. I prefer to use both.

Yards per play differential overvalues teams that either get a lot of big plays, but struggle to sustain drives, or teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively. Those are the exact same teams that rate of sustaining drives undervalues. Using the two metrics together can provide a clearer picture of how teams are playing.

Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be -3.5 (Colts’ yards per play differential – Browns’ yards per play differential/.15 and then add 3 for home field). Using the rate of sustaining drives method, this line should be -8.5 (Colts’ rate of sustaining drives differential – Browns’ rate of sustaining drives differential/1.5 and then add 3 for home field). For the record, rate of sustaining drives means, on any given set of downs, how often do you get a 1st down (or score) and vice versa for the defense. Either method, the Colts are the better team and we’re getting line value with them.

This line has moved 2 points from last week, when it was at -4 in favor of Indianapolis. That’s because Cleveland pulled out a “surprising” home victory over the Bengals, a victory that wasn’t surprising if you knew that Cincinnati was overrated and that home dogs are covering at a 66.7% rate this year. It’s also because the Colts got blown out by the Jets, which was more surprising, but still not enough reason for this line to be -2, which suggests that on a neutral field, Cleveland is better than Indianapolis by 1 point. Didn’t they just beat the Packers two weeks ago? Week 2 they beat the Vikings, which looks a lot better than now than it did then.

Also, Bill Simmons brought up an interesting point this week in his picks column. Dogs are dominating this year going 57-32 ATS. As a result, he believes, the odds makers seem to be shrinking lines. That makes sense. I just wished I liked more favorites this week. One example he brings up is Buffalo -3 over Tennessee, but both yards per play and rate of sustaining drives suggests those two teams are exactly equal. He also picks Jacksonville +4.5 over Oakland because he feels the line should have been shrunk there and it wasn’t because they’re overrating Oakland, which I totally agree with, but I would also add that they’re overrating them because the public is and they can afford not to shrink it. Oakland is a heavy public lean this week. In this case, however, it does seem that the odds makers have shrunken the spread because dogs are covering so much.

Besides, the Colts’ loss last week is explainable as they were coming off an emotional win over the Packers and completely overlooked the “pathetic” Jets. This week, they could easily have that positive ChuckStrong mojo going for them again. The biggest tangible reasons for their loss last week were their inability to stop the run and their -4 differential in turnovers. Anyone who reads these picks frequently know how much I hate to put much stock into turnover differential. On average, teams that win the turnover battle by 4 and teams that lose the turnover battle by 4 have the same turnover differential in their next game, about +0.0, and the same is true for every turnover differential in between.

Their inability to stop the run and their overall defensive struggles were a big part of the reason they lost last week as well and injuries can be blamed for that. Already missing Robert Mathis, Vontae Davis, and Pat Angerer last week, the Colts saw Cory Redding go down with an injury early. This week, Redding is going to be out once again, as is Mathis, but Davis and Angerer are expected to return to the lineup. Remember, Angerer has been out all season and Dwight Freeney went down early week 1. They haven’t been healthy all year. They still aren’t, but this is probably the healthiest they’ve been since the 1st quarter of week 1. Even if it isn’t, they’ll be healthier than last week. The Colts are in a bad spot, but as long as we’re not field goal protection with the Browns, I’m taking the home team.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cleveland covers)

Sharps lean: CLE 17 IND 4

Final update: Sharps don’t like Indianapolis, but it’s worth noting the line for LV Hilton is -3. I don’t want to take the Browns on the road getting less than a field goal.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Cleveland Browns 20

Pick against spread: Indianapolis -2 (-110) 1 unit

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 17 (-2)

Record: 2-3

The Colts are incredibly banged up defensively and that was clearly evident against the Jets as they couldn’t stop the mediocre Shonn Greene, who rushed for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns on 32 attempts, after combined for 217 yards and a touchdown on 76 attempts in his previous 5 games. Dwight Freeney has returned, but his return coincided with Robert Mathis getting hurt. Pat Angerer and Vontae Davis, meanwhile, have yet to return, and they also lost Cory Redding last week, which was huge as he’s probably their best run stopper. I think believe this is a decent team, but they’ll have to get healthy first. The good news is that Angerer had a limited practice on Wednesday and Davis practiced in full, normally a sign that both will be back this week for a home game against the Browns.

Studs

RG Mike McGlynn: Did not allow a pressure on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

RT Winston Justice: Did not allow a pressure on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempts

ROLB Jerry Hughes: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 7 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty

Duds

C Samson Satele: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempts

LOLB Dwight Freeney: 1 quarterback hurry on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

NT Antonio Johnson: Did not record a pressure on 5 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 snap

RE Ricardo Mathews: Did not record a pressure on 9 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

RE Drake Nevis: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 4 assists

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Colts, Jets

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at New York Jets (2-3)

Last week, I was very hesitant to make a big play on the Texans, even though I felt they were the significant superior team, because the Jets had so many things working in their favor. They were coming off an embarrassing home shutout and had to spend the week listening to how, at 2-2, they were done. Houston, meanwhile, sat at 4-0, so that game meant nothing to them, especially with Green Bay next on the schedule. The Jets managed to cover thanks to a kickoff return touchdown. The Jets threw everything they had at the Texans and the Texans were sleep walking, but they still did not win.

It’s very tough to maintain that type of intensity week in and week out in the NFL. In fact, I expect them to be flat this week. This is a bad spot for them, even not considering how much effort they put into the Houston game, only to lose. Favorites off a loss as a dog before being dogs are 53-77 ATS since 2008. They play New England next week, the division leader and a hated rival, so they could easily overlook the “lowly’ Colts.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis Colts, are in the opposite spot. Dogs before being favorites are 75-44 ATS since 2011. They host Cleveland next week. The Colts played with a ton of intensity last week as well, coming back from down 18 at halftime as 7 point underdogs to beat the Packers. Reggie Wayne had the game of his life and got the game ball, which he gave to Head Coach Chuck Pagano, who is currently hospitalized undergoing treatment for leukemia. Given what they’re playing for, I give them a much better chance of keeping up that level of intensity than the Jets.

We’re also getting points with the better team as the Colts rank .4 yards per play better than the Jets in yards per play differential, which translate to a “real” line of -0.5 in favor of the Jets, meaning we’re getting 3 points of line value with the Colts and that’s not taking into account the Jets’ injury situation. I don’t think this line really captures how awful the Jets are without Darrelle Revis and all of the other players missing with injury. Their game on Monday Night was not indicative of this team’s talent level, for reasons I already mentioned.

One NFL executive compared the Revis injury to any other team losing its starting quarterback and he was so right. Without Revis, they can’t do any of the things to normally make them good defensively and for a defensive minded team, that’s absolutely devastating. Without him, they can’t blitz as much as they normally do, which really hurts a team that already ranked 4th worst in the league in pass rush efficiency.

It also hurts their run defense some because they have to play their linebackers and safeties deeper in coverage, rather than stacking the box with Rex Ryan’s signature 46 scheme, as they often do. Normally a good run defense team, this team ranks 29th in the league against the run and don’t expect that to improve without Revis. They’re also missing their top-2 nose tackles, Sione Pouha and Kenrick Ellis, so they’re expected to start undrafted rookie Damon Harrison at nose tackle. And, of course, Revis’ absence also hurts the overall pass defense. They currently rank 10th against the pass, but with no Revis, no pass rush, and poor safety play, expect that rank to fall in future weeks.

Offensively, they were already a mess. Mark Sanchez’ 48% completion percentage is the worst through 5 games by any starting quarterback since JaMarcus Russell in 2009. Sanchez will likely get at least one of his receivers, Dustin Keller, back from injury this week and maybe Stephen Hill as well, but it’s unclear if that will help. They also rank 30th in the league running the ball as neither Shonn Greene nor Bilal Powell can get anything going. Meanwhile, the offensive line isn’t doing any favors to either their run or pass attack, ranking 27th in pass block efficiency and grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 31st ranked run blocking group. If you started over the season today, they might have the worst record in the league going forward.

Given that, I can’t put any money on them as favorites of more than a field goal in any situation. In this situation, however, I really like Indianapolis. They’re playing in their Head Coach’s honor and they’re dogs before being favorites. The Jets, meanwhile, are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs. This would have been a 5 unit co-pick of the week if I wasn’t worried about betting a publicly backed underdog (Indianapolis), but it’s still a big play.

Public lean: Indianapolis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NYJ 22 IND 6

Final update: This one surprised me, but the LV Hilton line is Jets -3, so maybe that makes a difference. I just can’t understand taking the Jets as more than 3 point favorites right now. They put everything into their game last week and they’re generally abysmal thanks to all of their injuries. We’re getting more than a field goal with the better team in the better spot.

Indianapolis Colts 26 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Indianapolis Colts: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Colts

Last week: 21 (+4)

Record: 2-2

What an amazing win for the Colts. Down 21-3 at home against the normally dominant Packers, the Colts roared back to win led by 13 catches for a career high 212 yards and a touchdown from Reggie Wayne. Earlier in the week, Wayne visited Head Coach Chuck Pagano in the hospital, where the 52-year-old 1st time Head Coach is undergoing treatment for leukemia. Pagano is not just Wayne’s Head Coach, but someone who he’s known for a long time as Pagano recruited Wayne to the University of Miami out of High School (now Wayne’s surprising decision to return to Indianapolis, rather than follow Peyton Manning doesn’t seem so surprising). It’ll be very interesting to see if the ChuckStrong momentum can continue into the future. I hope it does. At the very least, it should continue one more week as they face the lowly Jets this week.

Studs

WR Reggie Wayne: Caught 13 passes for 212 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts on 64 pass snaps, 2.7 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Cassius Vaughn: Allowed 3 catches for 18 yards on 6 attempts, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT Anthony Castonzo: Allowed 3 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 67 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 3 attempts

RT Winston Justice: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 67 pass block snaps, 3 penalties, run blocked for 5 yards on 4 attempts

WR Donnie Avery: Caught 3 passes for 22 yards on 8 attempts on 65 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

WR TY Hilton: Caught 3 passes for 37 yards on 9 attempts on 54 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

CB Jerraud Powers: Allowed 6 catches for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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