Commanders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Commanders, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8) at Washington Redskins (3-6)

The Redskins stand at 3-6, but they are still favored by 7.5 points here over the Buccaneers. They’re almost definitely going to finish 6-10 or worse and teams that finish that badly almost never cover as a favorite of 6 or more, doing so only about 25% of the time historically. I don’t see the Redskins finishing 4-3 or better over their final 7 games. The Buccaneers aren’t good, but they’ve played some decent games on the road this season, including a win in Pittsburgh and close losses in Cleveland and New Orleans. The Buccaneers have actually only lost three games by more than a touchdown this season, as bad as their record is.

The Redskins also have a tough game next week, going to San Francisco. Teams are 76-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Going off of that, touchdown favorites are 37-74 ATS since 1989 before being touchdown underdogs, which the Redskins almost definitely will be next week. The Buccaneers will also be road underdogs in Chicago next week, but teams are actually 96-70 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs.

The only reason this isn’t a high confidence pick is because the Redskins are better than most 3-6 teams as they rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential. They are moving the chains at a 73.08% rate, as opposed to 72.53% for their opponents, a differential of 0.55% and they should only get better offensively with Robert Griffin back from injury (though losing Orakpo defensively is a big loss). RG3 looked fine in his return before the bye in Minnesota and now he goes into his 2nd start back from injury after a bye. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers rank 29th, moving the chains at a 70.50% rate, as opposed to 76.38% for their opponents, a differential of -5.88%. However, they should still be the right side.

Washington Redskins 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Commanders, Uncategorized, Vikings

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-5)

This is a tough one. The Vikings are going into a bye and teams are 37-61 ATS since 2002 at home going into a bye as favorites of 1-5.5 points. This line is right at even so this game might not qualify, but it’s a point away from qualifying and teams are 2-3 ATS at home going into a bye when the line is even. The Redskins also have the significantly easier next game, as they host the Buccaneers, while the Vikings have to go to Chicago. Teams are 58-97 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. This line is even and both teams have byes before those next games so it’s tough to know if this game qualifies, but the logic does still make sense and it’s a point away from qualifying.

The Redskins also are significantly better in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.55% rate, as opposed to 71.43% for their opponents, a differential of 1.12% that ranks 13th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 66.95% rate, as opposed to 70.83% for their opponents, a differential of -3.88%. That suggests that the Redskins should be favored, even before you take into account that Robert Griffin is returning from injury. However, much of the reason why the Redskins rank 13th is because of how well they played against the Jaguars, one of the worst teams in the league. If you take that game out of the mix, they move the chains at a 70.14% rate, as opposed to 73.85% for their opponents, a differential of -3.71% that would rank 26th in the NFL. Griffin could also be rusty in his first game back. I like the Redskins, but I’m not confident.

Washington Redskins 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-5) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1)

Last week I picked against the Cowboys when they planned the Giants here at home in Dallas. That didn’t work out as the Cowboys won 31-21 as 6.5 point favorites, but it could have easily been a different result (against the spread). The Giants led 14-7 earlier and the game would have been a lot closer if not for two Larry Donnell fumbles after the catch, two very fluky things. Even after last week, the Cowboys still have a lot of issues historically when favored, especially heavily favored, at home.

The Cowboys are 13-23 ATS as home favorites since 2009, including 6-12 ATS as home favorites of 6.5 or more. This isn’t just a Dallas thing. NFC East teams are just 20-34 ATS as divisional home favorites since 2008. This is probably too big of a line for the Cowboys to cover. They have a way of disappointing when they’re supposed to win big and what better situation for them to do it in than on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys are 1-8 ATS on Monday Night Football since 2006.

We also might be getting a significant amount of line value with the Redskins. The Cowboys have played well this season, moving the chains at a 78.21% rate, as opposed to 72.11% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10% that ranks 4th in the NFL. The Redskins, meanwhile, move the chains at a 72.57% rate, as opposed to 71.15% for their opponents, a differential of 1.42% that ranks 12th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 7.5 instead of 10. Sure, much of the reason why the Redskins rank 12th is because of how well they played against the Jaguars. If you take that game out of the mix, they move the chains at a 69.78% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of -4.16% that would rank 26th in the NFL. However, I still like their chances of keeping this within double digits.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Commanders, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-4) at Washington Redskins (1-5)

At first glance, it looks like we’re getting line value with the Redskins. Despite the Redskins’ 1-5 record, they are 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 73.50% rate, as opposed to 71.74% for their opponents. Meanwhile, the Titans are 29th at -7.00%, moving the chains at a 69.71% rate, as opposed to 76.71% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 11.5 or 12 because rate of moving the chains suggests the Redskins are an above average team.

However, that’s just because they were so dominant in one game at home against the lowly Jaguars, in which they moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, as opposed to 45.00% for the Jaguars, a differential of 39.09%, the biggest single game rate of moving the chains differential this season. If you take that out, the Redskins are moving the chains at a 70.51% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for their opponents, a differential of -4.49%, which would rank 25th in the NFL. They’re still better than their record. They could have easily won in Philadelphia and their double digit losses in Arizona and Houston weren’t quite as bad as the final score suggested. Both would have been field goal losses on the road against decent or better opponents if not for return touchdowns and blocked extra points. However, they are definitely not an above average team.

They don’t really have any business being favored by this many points (6) over anyone, except for maybe those lowly Jaguars. I’m not thrilled about taking Charlie Whitehurst and the Titans here (I was holding out hope all week that it would end up being Locker for the Titans, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be the case), but they should be the right side here. Teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread about a quarter of the time historically for obvious reasons.

It’s a tough trend to use as it’s such a rare case that a team that you know will most likely finish 6-10 or worse is actually favored by that many. The Redskins would have to go 6-4 or better the rest of the way to finish 7-9 or better. The Titans failed to cover as 6 point favorites over the Jaguars last year, winning by just 2, another case that is most likely relevant to that trend. Despite that, the public is still on the Redskins, possibly because they think the Redskins are significantly better than their record. I like fading the public any chance I can get, especially when it makes it sense like it does here.

Another trend is working against the Redskins as well. The Titans are in a much better spot with an easier game on deck. While the Titans host the Texans next (in game in which they will most likely be favored), the Redskins have to go to Dallas. Teams are 85-103 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, while teams are 121-88 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 94-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. As long as this line is 6 points or higher, I’m reasonably confident in the Titans.

Washington Redskins 20 Tennessee Titans 19

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-1)

Last week I called the Cardinals a fraudulent 3-0 team. Every year it seems there’s one team that gets off to a hot start and then crashes and burns. The Dolphins started 3-0 last year. The Cardinals started 4-0 in 2012. The Bills started 3-0 in 2011, etc. It makes sense. About 2/3rds of the league has a 3+ game winning streak at some point in a 16 game season. It’s just much more noticeable at the start of the season, so people overreact to 3/16 or 1/4 an NFL season. The Cardinals didn’t have the talent level to match their record, after losing Carson Palmer, Daryl Washington, Darnell Dockett, John Abraham, and Karlos Dansby to injury, free agency, and suspension from last year’s 10-6 team. They also still don’t have Tyrann Mathieu back to full strength having played just 36 snaps all season.

Sure enough, the Cardinals got destroyed in Denver, losing by the final score of 41-20. Sure, the Broncos are a very good team, but 21 points is a big margin. As good as the Broncos are, it was still just their 2nd win by that margin or more in their last 10 games. The odds makers were pretty down on them and they still only expected them to lose by 7 or 8 points, setting the line at 7.5. It was also even more of a blowout than the final score suggested as the Cardinals lost by 21 despite winning the turnover battle by 2. If it wasn’t for those 2 plays, the final margin could have been upwards of 4 touchdowns.

The Cardinals moved the chains at a mere 45.83% rate, while the Broncos moved them at a 76.32% rate, a 30.48% differential that was not only the biggest differential of the week, but the 3rd biggest differential of the season (Washington/Jacksonville, Atlanta/Tampa Bay). On the season, they are moving the chains at a 70.94% rate, as opposed to 74.80% for their opponents, a differential of -3.86% that is 25th in the NFL. For comparison’s sake, Washington moves the chains at a 74.70% rate, as opposed to 72.55% for their opponents, a differential of 2.15% that ranks 14th in the NFL.

Now their injury situation is getting even worse. Carson Palmer is not expected back this week and now backup Drew Stanton is also expected to miss this game, leaving 3rd stringer Logan Thomas, a 4th round rookie, to get the start. Aside from an 81 yard touchdown to a wide open Andre Ellington out of the backfield, Thomas didn’t look good at all last week, completing just 1 out of 8 passes. On top of that, Calais Campbell, arguably their best defensive player, is out for an extended period of time. They have no business being favored by more than a field goal here.

Washington Redskins 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Commanders, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

One of the most powerful trends says that big road favorites dominate off a bye. Road favorites of 3 or more are 39-12 ATS off a bye since 2002, which is an incredibly high rate. The Seahawks should be completely focused here as 7.5 point favorites and be able to blow out an incredibly inferior opponent even on the road. The Seahawks are also at an advantage because this game will be at night and West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams at night, no matter where the game is played, covering at about a 67% rate. The Redskins could be getting tired towards the end of this game, while the Seahawks will be alert the whole time.

In spite of both of those things, this isn’t a bigger play for the Seahawks because the Redskins are in one good spot. They were demolished on Thursday Night Football last week. It might seem counter-intuitive, but that makes it more likely they’ll cover this week as this line could be a little inflated. This line was at 6 points a week ago, which is where I wish it still was, but now it’s 7.5, moving from the key number of 6 and crossing over another key number of 7. Underdogs are 24-13 ATS off of a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more. Not only did we get that line movement, but the Redskins have had 10 days to hear about how bad they are, which is extra motivation. I like the Seahawks still, but it’s only a medium confidence play.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -7.5

Confidence: Medium

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

The Redskins actually lead the league in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin at 14.08%, but most of that game in that domination against the terrible Jaguars in which they had a rate of moving the chains differential of 39.09%, best by any team in a single game this season. They were solid against the Texans and the Eagles, posting rate of moving the chains differentials of 4.41% and 3.73% respectively in those 2 games, but they’re not quite as good as that 14.08% number suggests.

They might also not be completely focused for this game because they have a game against the Seahawks up next. Teams are 21-37 ATS as divisional home favorites before being non-divisional hoe underdogs since 1989. The Giants, meanwhile, have the Falcons in New York up next, which isn’t nearly as big of a distraction. The Giants are also 20-12 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2004 (the start of the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era), including 15-7 ATS as road divisional underdogs. As long as this line is above 3, I’m grabbing the points.

Washington Redskins 24 New York Giants 23

Pick against spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-0)

The Redskins looked very good in Kirk Cousins 2014 debut last week, as Robert Griffin went down with a significant ankle injury a few plays into what ended up being one of the most dominant performances by a team I’ve seen in a while. The Redskins moved the chains at an 84.09% rate, as opposed to 45.00% for the Jaguars. However, it was just the Jaguars so I’m still skeptical. He completed 52.3% of his passes for an average of 5.51 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 3 starts against some of the worst defenses in the league (Atlanta, Dallas, NY Giants) last season.

Will the Redskins’ continue to have success this week? I like their chances. Philadelphia doesn’t have a good defense. They looked decent against Jacksonville week 1, but they were terrible last season and they let the Colts move the chains at a 77.78% rate last week in an eventual Philadelphia win. The Eagles also haven’t been as good offensively as last season, moving the chains at a 72.97% rate despite playing Indianapolis and Jacksonville, who don’t have good defenses. They’re going to continue to miss Evan Mathis, their best offensive lineman, this week.

This should be a shoot-out and I like the Redskins chances of at least keeping it close against a Philadelphia team that has stumbled out of the gates to 2-0. The Eagles are in a hard spot as they have to go to San Francisco next week, while the Redskins are home for the Giants next week. Divisional road underdogs are 57-41 ATS before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, teams are 89-54 ATS as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs since 2010, including 90-55 ATS as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs since 2008. I’m grabbing the 6.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: Washington +6.5

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Redskins: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

The Redskins lost in Houston last week and it seems that people have already given up on them as a bounce back team. After all, the Texans won just 2 games last season. I don’t think that’s the right reaction. I think it’s way more likely that the Texans are also going to be a bounce back team this season. Their offense isn’t great, but they have one of the better defenses in the league. They went 2-14 year, but they were much better than their record.

They went 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less. As bad as their record was last season, they only lost 5 games by more than a touchdown and two of those came late in the season in their final 3 games after Gary Kubiak was fired and the team essentially quit. They were also killed by turnovers last year, going -20 in that aspect and having serious issues with return touchdowns. They finished 21st in rate of moving the chains (including 11th defensively), which was more indicative of their talent level than their record. The fact that RG3 and the Redskin offense struggled against the Texans’ defense doesn’t necessarily mean that RG3 will never find his 2012 form again.

He could easily find it this week. The Texans don’t suck, but the Jaguars do. They started out 17-0 against the Eagles, but showed their true colors once again, eventually losing 34-17. They went 4-12 last season and were even worse than their record. They finished dead last in DVOA and point differential, with 10 of their 12 losses coming by double digits. Their 4-12 record was buoyed by a 4-2 record in games decided by a touchdown or less.

Those 4 wins came against teams that finished a combined 15-49. They also ranked easily dead last in rate of moving the chains differential. They were dead last in rate of moving the chains, moving them at a 64.19% rate. Meanwhile, their defense was 29th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.85% rate. That’s a differential of -11.66%. No one else was worse than -7.45%. In their last 17 games, they’ve lost 11 times by double digits. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Redskins made it 12 times in 18 games. This line is way too low.

Washington Redskins 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Washington -6

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Houston Texans: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Texans, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)

Both of these teams are going to be better than they were last season. These two teams finished worst and 2nd worst respectively last season, after both made the playoffs the previous season. The Texans went from 12 wins to 2 wins in 2013 and the Redskins went from 10-6 to 3-13. Teams that have big declines in win totals like that generally bounce back an average of half of the decline and I think both of these teams could easily do that and more.

The Texans were much better than their 2-14 record last season, finishing 21st in rate of moving the chains differential despite a schedule that was 10th hardest in the NFL in terms of DVOA. Their defense ranked 11th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 69.40% rate. However, the offense was the issue, as they ranked 25th, moving the chains at a 66.87% rate. Still, they were better than their record. They just had some unlucky things not go their way.

They went 2-9 in games decided by a touchdown or less. As bad as their record was last season, they only lost 5 games by more than a touchdown and two of those came late in the season in their final 3 games after Gary Kubiak was fired and the team essentially quit. They had about 4.2 Pythagorean wins. On top of that they allowed 8 touchdowns off of returns, as opposed to 2 touchdowns off of returns for that. If we zeroed that out, they would have scored 262 points and allowed 372 points, which is a Pythagorean Expectation of 4.9 wins.

Speaking of turnovers, their turnover margin went to a league worst -20, as a result of a 44.44% fumble recovery rate, 26th in the NFL. They also picked off an absurd low amount of passes, 7, and they threw 22 interceptions. Turnover margins tend to be really inconsistent on a year-to-year and week-to-week basis though, as we’re talking about events that happen on such a small percentage of snaps. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0.

Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins. Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to struggle (or have success) the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. They should be a lot better this season, especially with an upgrade at quarterback, Arian Foster and Brian Cushing coming back from injury, and Jadeveon Clowney coming in on defense.

The Redskins, meanwhile, get a healthy Robert Griffin back, and add in Jordan Reed, returning from injury, and DeSean Jackson, coming over from Philadelphia. Their defense isn’t much better than last season, even with Jason Hatcher coming in and they’re going to suffer more losses to injuries and suspensions (Brandon Meriweather is already suspended for two games) than last season, when they barely had any. However, their defense is only as bad as the Texans’ offense and their offense is as good as the Texans’ defense. These two teams are very evenly matchup and this line suggests it at Houston -3. I’m going to take the Texans and fade the public underdog, but I’m not confident at all.

Houston Texans 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Houston -3

Confidence: None

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