Quarterback

Over the past five seasons, Washington has started twelve different quarterbacks, most in the league over that span. Prior to the past five seasons, Washington had Kirk Cousins, who made all 48 starts from 2015-2017 and was solid with a 97.5 QB rating, but Washington opted not to pay him the big contract long-term he wanted and let him walk in free agency. Cousins hasn’t exactly been worth his big contract over the past five seasons in Minnesota, posting a 100.9 QB rating, but winning just one playoff game and costing the Vikings 155 million over five seasons, with another 30 million due in 2023, but Washington has had such a hard time replacing him that they might have been better off biting the bullet and bringing Cousins back, instead of going on the quarterback carousel they’ve been on the past five seasons.

Washington’s quarterback issues in recent years haven’t been for lack of trying to find a solution either. They originally traded a third round pick and a starting cornerback Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs for veteran starter Alex Smith, who they gave a 4-year, 94 million dollar deal with 71 million guaranteed to be Cousins’ replacement, but he suffered a major injury midway through his first season in Washington and wound up making just 16 total starts for Washington in three seasons, while taking home all of his guaranteed money. 

Washington then turned to the draft the following off-season, taking Dwayne Haskins in the first round in 2019, but he lasted just two seasons in Washington, with a 74.4 QB rating in 13 starts. Another veteran, Ryan Fitzpatrick, got a 1-year deal worth 10 million for the 2021 season, but lasted just 6 pass attempts before suffering a season ending and ultimately career ending injury. The Commanders then traded away a pair of third round picks last off-season to acquire Carson Wentz and his 28.3 million dollar salary from the Colts, but Wentz struggled and wound up with a 80.2 QB rating in just 7 total starts before being released this off-season.

Despite all the assets Washington has committed to the quarterback position in recent years, the quarterback who has made the most starts for them recently is Taylor Heinicke, a former undrafted free agent who was supposed to be a backup. Heinicke hasn’t been bad in his 22 starts over the past two seasons, but he completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.01 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 87.5, while receiving grades of 59.4 and 49.8 from PFF in the past two seasons, suggesting he should stay a backup long-term. 

Washington had opportunities to be aggressive and commit more significant resources to the quarterback position this off-season, whether in a trade for Lamar Jackson or Aaron Rodgers, or by moving up into the top-4 of the draft to select a high level young quarterback prospect, but the Commanders took a more conservative approach, opting to see what 2022 5th round pick Sam Howell has, while adding Jacoby Brissett on an incentivized 1-year, 8 million dollar deal to replace Heinicke as a veteran backup and insurance option in case Howell struggles.

Howell wasn’t a high draft pick, even in a bad quarterback draft, and he was pretty nondescript in just one start (19 pass attempts) as a rookie, so the odds would seem to be against him developing into the solution at quarterback for the Commanders, but Howell was considered a higher draft pick before a disappointing final collegiate season and the Commanders have been happy with his performance behind the scenes, enough so that they didn’t seem to interested in making a splash addition at the quarterback position. He will likely struggle in his first season as a full-time starter, but there is at least some upside there.

Brissett doesn’t come with much upside, as he’s going into his age 31 season and basically is who he is at this point in his career, making 48 starts in 7 seasons in the league and totaling a 84.4 QB rating. However, he’s coming off a career best year in Cleveland, completing 64.0% of his passes for an average of 7.07 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 11 starts, good for a career high 88.9 QB rating and a career high 75.2 grade from PFF as a passer, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Brissett ended up as the starter at some point this season if Howell struggles to show consistency, in which case Brissett could prove to be an upgrade, even if he’s also an underwhelming starter in his own right. Without any significant additions this off-season, this is an underwhelming quarterback room, with Washington giving the starting job to an inexperienced second year player who was just a 5th round pick a year ago. There is some upside here, but most teams have a better quarterback situation than this.

Grade: C+

Offensive Line

With questions at the quarterback position again and Howell unlikely to be a significant upgrade under center in his first season as a starter, the Commanders will need more from the rest of this supporting cast if they are going to improve from last season, when they went 8-8-1 with a -22 point differential against an easy schedule and finished 22nd overall in DVOA, with their offense finishing 28th. On offense, the Commanders’ offensive line had more changes than any other position group on this team from last year to this year, which makes sense because they were an underwhelming unit a year ago, ranking 26th on PFF in team pass blocking grade and 23rd in team run blocking grade, but all of the changes don’t seem to have made this a better offensive line and, in fact, it’s possible they could be even worse than a year ago. 

A lot of the changes the Commanders made on this offensive line this off-season involved moving on from struggling veterans. Center Chase Roullier could have had some bounce back potential if he was healthy, but the Commanders didn’t want to pay his 8.37 million dollar non-guaranteed salary after he had played in just 10 games over the previous two seasons, so he was let go. The Commanders also released Andrew Norwell to save 4.38 million and allowed free agent Trai Turner to walk, after they started 16 games and 12 games respectively last season at guard and received below average grades of 59.8 and 53.0 respectively from PFF. On top of that, Wes Schweitzer and Nick Martin, two of the three centers who made starts at center last season in Roullier’s absence, were not brought back this off-season. 

Added to the mix are veterans Nick Gates and Andrew Wylie, both of whom the Commanders gave 3-year deals, worth 16.5 million and 24 million respectively, and a pair of rookies, third round pick Ricky Stromberg and fourth round pick Braeden Daniels. All four additions have one thing in common, the ability to play multiple positions, as Gates has started at tackle, guard, and center at the professional level, Wylie has started at tackle and guard at the professional level, Stromberg played center and guard at the collegiate level, and Daniels played tackle and guard at the collegiate level. It’s very likely none of those additions wind up being above average starters, but their versatility does at least give the Commanders more options upfront.

Gates will most likely be Washington’s starting center, with Washington’s other options being the rookie Stromberg, who could easily struggle in year one, and career backup Tyler Larsen, who started 8 games last season in Roullier’s absence, but finished with just a 58.2 PFF grade. Larsen has been better in the past, but he’s never been more than a middling starter, he’s made just 29 starts in eight seasons in the league, with a career high of 10 starts in a season, and he now heads into his age 31 season, so he’s not a realistic starting option and ultimately might not even make this team as a reserve, even though he also provides the Commanders with versatility, having made starts at guard in the past.

Gates went undrafted in 2018, but flashed potential on 291 snaps in his second season in the league in 2019 with the Giants, while playing both tackle and guard, which led to him being given a chance to start at center in 2020. Gates made all 16 starts at center and wasn’t horrible with a 59.7 PFF grade, but he suffered a brutal leg injury early in the 2021 season, which has limited him to just 10 starts total over the past two seasons. Gates is only in his age 28 season and seems to have finally made a full recovery, starting the Giants’ final 7 games (5 at guard, 2 at center) and receiving a 64.8 PFF over that stretch. He doesn’t come with a lot of upside, but as long as he can avoid further injury, he should at least be a capable starter wherever that ends up being, most likely center, given the Commanders’ other options.

The strength of this offensive line is probably the tackle position. Holdovers Charles Leno, Cornelius Lucas, and Samuel Cosmi all played above average as starters last season, making 17 starts, 12 starts, and 5 starts respectively last season and receiving grades of 71.6, 67.7, and 71.6 from PFF. With Andrew Wylie being added to the mix in free agency, at least one of those players will have to play guard, likely Wylie, who has the most extensive experience of the bunch at that position.

Wylie has spent the past two seasons as a tackle (24 starts), but he was primarily a guard prior to that, making 34 starts at guard from 2018-2020, as opposed to just one start at tackle over that stretch. Wylie has never been more than a middling starter, but he’s been decent regardless of where he’s played, receiving 66.0, 67.4, and 54.9 grades from PFF during his three seasons as primarily a guard and 67.2 and 63.1 grades from PFF during his two seasons as primarily a tackle. Still in his prime in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him this season regardless of where he plays, most likely guard, given Washington’s other options.

Leno was the best of Washington’s tackles last season with a 71.6 PFF grade, which is in line with how he’s played for most of his career as a starter, finishing above 70 on PFF in six of the past seven seasons, while making 114 starts, with a career best 81.2 just a couple years ago in 2021. Leno now heads into his age 32 season and could easily decline this season, but, barring a massive dropoff, he should remain at least a solid starter with the upside for more if he continues not showing his age. He figures to be locked in as the starter at left tackle again.

Cosmi also had a good year last season, receiving a 71.6 PFF grade, but he also missed three games and was limited in others due to injury, which is a concern because the 2021 3rd round pick also missed eight games as a rookie. Cosmi flashed a lot of potential as a rookie too, with a 74.9 PFF grade, so, if he can stay healthy, he could easily be an above average starter for the Commanders in 2023, now in his third season in the league, but he does come with some downside, having not made it through a full season as a starter yet in his career. He’ll likely start at right tackle, but theoretically could also move inside to guard, though he has made just one start there at the professional level.

Lucas entered last season as a reserve and he has never made more than 12 starts in a season in nine seasons in the league, but he’s been one of the best swing tackles in the league in recent years, making 35 starts over the past four seasons and receiving grades of 72.2, 78.2, 75.2, and 67.7 from PFF respectively. Lucas is going into his age 32 season now and is still a projection to a season-long starting role, so he is likely to remain as the swing tackle, but he would likely still be one of the top swing tackles in the league and it’s possible he could see some starts at right tackle, with both Cosmi and Wylie playing guard in that scenario.

Guard is probably the weakest position of this offensive line, but the Commanders do at least have options. One of Cosmi or Wylie will likely start at one guard spot and it’s possible both could play guard if they wanted to give Lucas a shot at right tackle. Other guard options include the rookies Stromberg and Daniels, 2020 4th round pick Saahdiq Charles, who has mostly struggled in 545 snaps (8 starts) in three seasons in the league, and 2022 7th round pick Chris Paul, who was mediocre in 66 rookie year snaps. 

The Commanders have options on this offensive line, but they are likely to have at least one weak spot in the starting lineup and, outside of Leno and Cosmi, they don’t have any starters who are likely to be above average and even that’s not a guarantee, given Leno’s age and that Cosmi has a significant injury history and might be playing out of position at guard. This is likely to remain a below average group, despite all the changes made this off-season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

To compensate for their underwhelming passing game, the Commanders were a run-heavy team last season, ranking 20th in the NFL with 554 pass attempts and 4th with 538 run attempts. With Howell being a first-time starter, the Commanders figure to remain run-heavy in 2023. They ranked just 28th in the NFL last season with 3.98 YPC, but they were better than that suggests, as their top-two running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson had carry success rates of 53% and 50% respectively, on carry totals of 205 and 149 respectively, meaning both backs kept this offense on schedule at an at least average rate, which is impressive considering the Commanders’ offensive line issues. 

Their low averages were mostly the result of their lack of big plays in the running game, with Robinson managing just six carries of 15+ yards, which he took for 111 yards total, and Gibson managing just three carries of 15+ yards, which he took for 56 yards total. As a percentage of their overall rushing total, Robinson and Gibson had just 13.9% and 10.3% of their yardage on carries of 15+ yards, 10th lowest and 6th lowest respectively out of 60 eligible running backs. Fortunately for them, long carries tend to be inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, so both running backs could easily end up with more long carries this season, which would improve their overall averages significantly. 

Robinson has the most upside of the two as a runner, as a 2022 3rd round pick going into his second season in the league, after not being at 100% for most of his rookie season due to injuries suffered when he was the victim of an shooting in the off-season, which also cost him the first five games of his rookie season. Robinson averaged 17.1 carries per game as the lead back upon his return and figures to remain in that role this season, a role in which he will have some breakout potential. 

Gibson is also a former 3rd round pick, being selected there in 2020, and he had more long carries in his first two seasons prior to last season, with 22.8% of his yardage in those two seasons coming on carries of 15+ yards, but that only led to a 4.28 YPC in those two seasons, so Robinson seems like the better option as a runner going forward. Gibson, meanwhile, will be their primary passing down back, after averaging 1.34 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, a steep increase on the 0.72 yards per route run average that Robinson had as a rookie.

The Commanders don’t really need much depth behind their top-two running backs because both have the ability to take on a larger load if needed in the absence of the other, but depth is at least a little bit of a concern, with 6th round rookie Chris Rodriguez likely to be their #3 back and their other options being Jonathan Williams, a special teamer with just 134 carries in seven seasons in the league, and Jaret Patterson, a 2021 undrafted free agent with just a 4.05 YPC average on 85 career carries. 

The Commanders also have Curtis Samuel, a wide receiver, who totaled 187 yards on 38 carries, of which came out of the backfield. He might not get that many carries in a new offensive scheme this season, but he does have 114 carries for 676 yards and 6 touchdowns in six seasons in the league. Even not including the hybrid Curtis Samuel, this is a solid backfield, with a pair of solid backs who will work in tandem and complement each other well and who are capable of being the featured back for a stretch if needed.

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

In addition to getting more long runs out of their backfield, another way this offense could improve somewhat in 2023 is by getting more out of 2022 first round pick Jahan Dotson, which would give them a much needed second reliable target in this receiving corps other than Terry McLaurin. McLaurin averaged 2.04 yards per route run with a 77/1191/5 slash line last season, in line with his 1.94 yards per route run average and 75/1070/5 slash line average in four seasons in the league, and he is still in his prime in his age 28 season, but the only other wide receiver on this team to even surpass 1.40 yards per route run last season was Dyami Brown, who played just 169 snaps and had 52.4% of his receiving yardage on one 75-yard play.

Dotson wasn’t bad as a rookie, but he had just a 35/523/7 slash line and 1.39 yards per route run average, two things he has the potential to improve on in his second season in the league, even if his upside is likely going to be capped as the #2 receiver in an underwhelming passing game. He’s not a guarantee to take a step forward, but he at least gives the Commanders some room for optimism. Curtis Samuel was the nominal #2 receiver last season, with 92 targets to Dotson’s 61, but he took them for just a 64/656/4 slash line, a 7.13 yards per target average, as opposed to 8.57 for Dotson, and Samuel averaged just 1.28 yards per route run, even though he was targeted more frequently than Dotson

Samuel is a former second round pick by the Panthers in 2017 and he has shown flashes of why he was a high draft pick through his 6-year career, but has just a 1.34 yards per route run average for his career, with 23 total games missed due to injury, and, now in his age 27 season, he probably is who he is at this stage of his career, so he should be the third option in this passing game, with Dotson giving them more upside in a bigger role in his second season in the league. 

Samuel still will have somewhat of a role in this offense though, as they don’t have much depth behind him, with their likely #4 receiver being Dyami Brown, who was a third round pick in 2021, but who has played just 504 snaps in two seasons in the league and who has just a 16/233/1 slash line in his career outside of that one aforementioned 75-yard play. He has a little upside, but he’s underwhelming as a #4 receiver and would likely not contribute much if forced into a larger role by injuries ahead of him on the depth chart.

The Commanders also don’t have much at the tight end position. Logan Thomas was their primary receiving tight end, but he took 61 targets in 14 games for a 39/323/1 slash line, while averaging 0.88 yards per route run. Thomas has averaged just 1.01 yards per route run for his career and now heads into his age 32 season, so he’s a very underwhelming starting option who could struggle even more than he did last season, but the Commanders don’t have another great option. John Bates played 510 snaps last season and 519 snaps in 2021, but he was primarily a blocker, running a route on just 35.4% of those snaps. Bates has been one of the better run blocking tight ends in the league over the past two seasons, since being selected in the 4th round in 2021, but his career 1.06 yards per route run average doesn’t suggest that he deserves more playing time in passing situations. 

The Commanders also used a 5th round pick in last year’s draft on Cole Turner and he could play a bigger role in his second season at Thomas’ expense, after playing 245 snaps as a rookie, but he didn’t show much as a receiver either, with a 0.32 yards per route run average with his very limited action. The possible emergence of Jahan Dotson as an above average starting wide receiver in his second season in the league gives this group the upside to be better than a year ago, when they lacked a reliable target aside from Terry McLaurin, but this group still lacks depth at the wide receiver position and doesn’t have a reliable pass catching tight end.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

Even if their offense ends up being slightly better this year than a year ago, they still figure to be a below average unit, so they will need their defense to continue playing well, after finishing last season 9th in defensive DVOA. Defensive performance tends to be much less predictive and predictable year-to-year than offensive performance and, as a result, it tends to be much tougher for a good defense to repeat that performance the following season than a good offense, but the Commanders didn’t have any significant losses on defense this off-season and actually have a couple key players who could be healthier than a year ago, so they have a better chance than most teams of continuing to play at a high level or possibly even a higher level on that side of the ball.

The most notable of those key players who should be healthier is Chase Young, who missed all but three games (114 snaps) as he struggled to recover from a torn ACL suffered during the 2021 season. Young was the #2 overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, won Defensive Rookie of the Year with a season in which he received a 87.2 grade from PFF on 770 snaps, and was on his way to another good season in 2021, with a 75.1 PFF grade on 477 snaps, before suffering that torn ACL in week 10. Young still had a 78.4 PFF grade in his limited action last season and, only in his age 24 season in 2023, another year removed from his injury, Young has obvious bounce back potential. The Commanders aren’t completely sold on his durability long-term, declining his 5th year option for 2024, which would have guaranteed him 17.452 million, but he could still be a big asset for them, now in the final year of his rookie deal in 2023.

In Young’s absence, the Commanders got a good year from fellow edge defender Montez Sweat, as he received a 86.4 PFF grade on 731 snaps, a big part of the reason why this defense was above average a year ago. That was a career best grade for Sweat and he might not be as good again in 2023, but him playing at a high level isn’t really new, as the 2019 1st round pick has finished above 75 overall on PFF in three straight seasons and, still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023 at the very least. Sweat is at his best as a run defender, with grades of 86.0, 82.4, and 79.8 in run defense over the past three seasons, but he also has 22 sacks, 39 hits, and a 11.8% pressure rate over those three seasons, including 8 sacks, 19 hits, and a 13.8% pressure rate a year ago.

James Smith-Williams (506 snaps), Casey Toohill (347 snaps), and Efe Obada (391 snaps) saw significant action in Young’s absence last season and, with all three returning to this team for 2023, I would expect them to be their top reserves again, with 5th and 7th round rookies KJ Henry and Andre Jones added as competition. The rookies are unlikely to contribute much though and all three of those aforementioned veterans were mediocre in their limited action though, which is not surprising, given their history. 

Smith-Williams was just a 7th round pick in 2020 and has finished below 60 on PFF in all three seasons in the league, with snap counts of 100 and 388 in his first two seasons in the league prior to last season. Toohill was also a 7th round pick in 2020 and has been middling at best on an average of 253 snaps per season in three seasons in the league. Obada, meanwhile, went undrafted in 2015, has averaged just 308 snaps per season over the past five seasons, while finishing below 60 on PFF in four of those five seasons, and now heads into his age 31 season. Fortunately, depth won’t be needed as much at this position with Chase Young likely to be healthier than a year ago and, even with suspect depth, this is still an impressive position group because of their dominant starting duo.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

Another big part of the reason why this defense was above average a year ago was the play of interior defender Jonathan Allen, who was PFF’s 11th ranked interior defender with a 80.1 PFF grade on 802 snaps. Like Montez Sweat, Allen’s high level of play in 2022 was not out of the ordinary for him, as he’s now finished above 80 on PFF in three straight seasons, while surpassing 750 snaps played in all three seasons as well. Allen is only decent as a run defender, but he more than makes up for it by being one of the best interior pass rushers in the league, totaling 18.5 sacks, 36 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate over the past three seasons combined. Like Sweat and Young, Allen is also a former first round pick, selected 17th overall in 2017, and still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect another strong season from him in 2023.

Fellow starting interior defender Da’Ron Payne is also a former first round pick (13th in 2018) and also had a strong season, particularly as a pass rusher, as he had a 72.0 pass rush grade on PFF and totaled 11.5 sacks, 10 hits, and a 9.0% pressure rate. Payne’s run defense was a liability and he missed a position leading 12 tackles, so he didn’t have quite as good of a season as Allen, but he was still an asset for this defensive line and the Commanders obviously value him highly, keeping him as a free agent on a 4-year, 90 million dollar deal, making him the 3rd highest paid interior defender in the league in average annual salary.  Payne might not be quite worth that salary if his run defense doesn’t improve, but he did post above average run defense grades on PFF in his first three seasons in the league, prior to struggling the past two seasons, and, only going into his age 26 season, he has bounce back potential as a run defender. 

Payne wasn’t as good as a pass rusher earlier in his career, totaling a 5.8% pressure rate across those first three seasons in the league, but he’s not a one-year wonder in that aspect either, finishing with a 74.1 pass rush grade on PFF in 2021, with 4.5 sacks, 9 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate, giving him back-to-back seasons where he’s been well above average as an interior pass rusher. He should remain an asset for this team even if his run defense doesn’t bounce back and it wouldn’t be a shock if this ended up being his best all-around season, if he can return to form as a run defender and continue rushing the passer at a high level.

Depth was a problem at the interior defender position a year ago, but with Payne and Allen playing 907 snaps and 802 snaps respectively (3rd and 13th among interior defenders in snap count) depth wasn’t really needed that much and their depth should be better this season, with 2022 2nd round pick Phidarian Mathis set to return after missing all but 3 snaps in his rookie season due to injury. Payne and Allen still figure to play significant every down snap counts even with Mathis returning, but Mathis should still have a role as a rotational reserve and he has the potential to fare well in that role, while giving them a decent insurance option in case Payne or Allen get hurt. 

The Commanders also still have John Ridgeway, their top reserve from a year ago with 279 snaps played, but the 2022 5th round pick struggled mightily as a rookie with a 48.9 PFF grade and, while he could be better in year two, he’s no guarantee to ever develop into even a useful rotational player and he probably would need an injury ahead of him on the depth chart to see more than a deep reserve role. With Allen and Payne being one of the better interior defender duos in the league and Mathis returning from injury to presumably provide better depth than the Commanders had a year ago, this is a strong position group overall.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Commanders aren’t nearly as good in the linebacking corps as they are on the defensive line, but they do have a former first round pick in their linebacking corps as well, Jamin Davis, and he has the upside to have a breakout third season in the league. The 19th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Davis struggled in a part-time role as a rookie, finishing with a 46.8 PFF grade on 581 snaps, but took a step forward in an every down role in his second season in the league in 2022, playing 833 snaps and receiving a 62.9 PFF grade. Davis could regress a little in his third season in the league, but he also still has the upside to be an above average every down linebacker long-term and he could easily take another step forward in year three.

Cole Holcomb had a 66.6 PFF grade last season as the other starter opposite Davis, but he lasted just seven games (446 snaps) due to injury and none of the Commanders’ replacement options fared well, with the rest of this group all finishing below average on PFF. Holcomb wasn’t retained as a free agent this off-season, but the Commanders did a decent job replacing him with former Seahawk Cody Barton, who they signed to a 1-year, 3.5 million dollar deal. 

Barton, a 3rd round pick in 2019, was mostly a special teamer in his first three seasons in the league prior to last season, maxing out at 190 snaps in a season, and he never fared well even in that limited action, finishing below 60 on PFF in all three seasons, but he took a step forward in close to an every down role in 2022, receiving a 63.7 PFF grade on 894 snaps. Barton is a one-year wonder in terms of being even a decent every down player and, as a result, could regress a little bit this season, but that’s definitely not a guarantee and he’s not a bad option on a cheap one-year deal.

The Commanders will need Davis and Barton to stay healthy and hold up in every down roles, as their lack of depth behind them is still a concern, with their top reserve options being David Mayo, primarily a special teamer in his age 30 season who has only exceeded the 202 defensive snaps he played last season one other time in eight seasons in the league, and Khaleke Hudson, a 2020 5th round pick who has seen just 148 defensive snaps in his career. This isn’t a bad position group, but it’s not a good one and their lack of depth would be exposed in the event of an injury.

Grade: C+

Secondary

Along with Chase Young, the other key player on this defense who has a good chance to be healthier than a year ago is safety Kamren Curl, who was limited to 727 snaps in 12 games by injury last season, but excelled when on the field, with a 82.9 PFF grade. A 7th round pick in 2020, Curl is a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at last season, but, despite where he was drafted, Curl started 25 games across his first two seasons in the league and received grades of 68.1 and 69.4 from PFF on snap counts of 763 and 878 respectively, so his breakout third season in the league didn’t come out of nowhere. Curl might not be quite as good again in 2023, but he’s also only in his age 24 season and could continue being one of the better safeties in the league for years to come and, even if he’s not, he could easily compensate for that by being healthier than a year ago.

Darrick Forrest will remain the other starting safety, after playing 849 snaps in 17 games last season, in the first year as a starter for the 2021 5th round pick. Forrest only played 26 snaps as a rookie, but he showed some potential and wasn’t bad in his first season of significant action in 2022, with a 67.0 PFF grade. He wasn’t highly drafted and, as a result, might not have a huge upside, but he could remain at least a decent starter in 2023 and beyond, even if that ends up being his ceiling, and it’s possible he could have a little untapped potential.

Jeremy Reaves (149 snaps) and Percy Butler (134 snaps) were their top reserve safeties last season, along with hybrid slot cornerback/safety Bobby McCain, and all saw increased action in Curl’s absence. McCain is no longer with the team, but he’s been replaced by another hybrid player, second round rookie Jartavius Martin, and Reaves and Butler both remain. Reaves is probably the better of the two pure safeties, flashing potential in limited action in his career, but he’s also a special teamer who hasn’t exceeded 263 defensive snaps in a season in his career, while Butler is a 2022 4th round pick who struggled mightily as a rookie and Martin is likely to primarily be a cornerback.

Cornerback was arguably the Commanders’ biggest weakness on defense last season, so it’s not surprising they addressed it early in the draft, actually using their first round pick on a cornerback option as well, taking Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes with the 16th overall pick. Forbes and Taylor will compete for roles behind #1 cornerback Kendall Fuller, who was by far their best cornerback a year ago, with a 76.6 PFF grade on 1,030 snaps (17 starts). Fuller has been a bit inconsistent in his career, but he’s surpassed a 60 grade on PFF in six straight seasons, with four seasons over 70, including back-to-back years over 75, and he’s only in his age 28 season, so he’s unlikely to drop off significantly this season and he should remain an above average starter.

Benjamin St. Juste (655 snaps) is their top returning cornerback other than Fuller and the 2021 3rd round pick will still be in the mix for a role this season, even with Forbes and Taylor being added, but he’s not a guarantee to win that role and could easily open the season as the 4th cornerback, after mediocre grades of 53.6 and 58.3 from PFF in his first two seasons in the league, while starting 15 of 21 games played. St. Juste could have some untapped potential, but he’s already going into his age 26 season and might never develop into even a decent starting option, which is why Forbes and Taylor were added. 

The Commanders also have Danny Johnson, a 2018 undrafted free agent and career special teamer who has flashed potential on snap counts of 336 and 292 over the past two seasons, the two highest single-season totals of his career. He’s unlikely to see a significant role this season, but he should be a good depth option who can probably be relied on in a pinch. With Forbes and Taylor being added and Curl likely to play more games, this group could be better than a year ago, but they are relying heavily on inexperienced young players at the cornerback position, so there’s some downside here too if those young cornerbacks struggle through growing pains.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Commanders finished 8-8-1 in 2022, but their -22 point differential and 22nd ranked DVOA suggests that they were a little worse than their record and, as a result, they will likely have to be at least a little better in 2023 if they want to even match last season’s win total. The Commanders defense should remain one of the better units in the league, even though defensive performance is inconsistent on a year-to-year basis, as the Commanders brought back all of their key defenders from a year ago and could have better injury luck this season. However, their offense still looks like one of the weakest in the league. 

Their offensive skill position groups could be better this year with second year players Brian Robinson and Jahan Dotson having the potential to take a step forward in year two, but they still have one of the shakiest quarterback and one of the shakiest offensive line situations in the league and, overall, look like one of the weakest offenses in the league. Their defense will keep them competitive in most games, but, even in a weak NFC, there are better options to secure a wild card spot and make the post-season. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 5-12, 4th in NFC East