Commanders

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, Commanders, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-3) at Washington Redskins (2-5)

One of the most powerful trends in the NFL says that road favorites dominate off of a bye, going 45-18 ATS since 2002. It makes sense. Road favorites are significantly superior teams and significantly superior teams tend to use the extra week very well and dominate their inferior opponent. The Chargers are road favorites in some places, but only of a point and they are also pick em elsewhere and 1 point underdogs in other places, so it’s not clear cut.

I do think they deserve to be road favorites though. They may just be 4-3, but they are better than their record. They are a few plays away from 6-1 and they are 3-1 in games decided by more than a touchdown, as opposed to 1-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are winning despite getting killed in turnovers, -6, as a result of a league worst 15.4% fumble recovery rate. That won’t continue going forward.

Their offense has been incredible as Philip Rivers is playing at a borderline MVP level with a marginal at best offensive supporting cast. He’s been rejuvenated with new Head Coach Mike McCoy. He is completing 73.9% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions and ProFootballFocus grades him as the #2 passing quarterback behind Peyton Manning. He is leading this offense to an 83% rate of moving the chains, which is incredible, only behind Denver.

They have plenty of problems on their skeleton crew defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79% rate, good for a differential that is 9th best in the NFL. The Redskins, meanwhile, sit at 23rd, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. The Chargers deserve to be road favorites by at least a couple points here and, coming out of a bye, they have a very good chance of winning in a shootout, against a very even line.

There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play though. One is that they aren’t really true road favorites. The other is they could be much more distracted than Washington with a home game against Denver on deck. The Redskins, meanwhile, go to Minnesota next week so they don’t have any distractions. Again, I know they aren’t true road favorites, but for reference, non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home favorites, including 2-9 ATS when their opponent will next be non-road favorites. Favorites in general are 45-80 ATS before being dogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2010. I like San Diego to win a shootout, but I’m not confident.

San Diego Chargers 34 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: San Diego PK

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 25 (+1)

Record: 2-5

The Redskins looked on their way to an upset in Denver, leading 21-7 in the 3rd quarter, before the Broncos scored 38 unanswered points to end the game, both with their defense and their offense as everything fell apart for the Redskins. There’s no shame in getting blown out in Denver this season though, especially with the Broncos going into their bye, and it was impressive that they led by two touchdowns in the 2nd half. Their defense picked off Manning 3 times, the same amount he was picked off in the first 7 games combined, though it’s definitely a concern that Robert Griffin still didn’t look right and that the Redskins’ weak offensive line gave him such little time and allowed him to take so many hits.

Week 8 Studs

RT Tyler Polumbus

Week 8 Duds

QB Robert Griffin

LG Kory Lichtensteiger

TE Logan Paulsen

MLB Perry Riley

SS Jose Gumps

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Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Broncos, Commanders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-4) at Denver Broncos (6-1)

The Broncos lost their first game of the season in Indianapolis last week. The good news is they return home here to play the Washington Redskins in a game in which they should win. The question is, by how much will they win? Fortunately for them, they have a bye coming up so they can be totally focused here as 12.5 point favorites. Since 2002, home favorites of 7 or more are 26-9 ATS before a mid-season bye. It makes sense. Teams have no distractions and can take care of business.

However, I question if the line should be this high. This is one of the biggest NFL Lines of the week. The Broncos are playing incredible football, even with the loss, moving the chains at an 84% rate offensively and allowing opponents to do so at a league average 73% average. However, the Redskins are better than their record as well, moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be closer to 9 or 10.

Peyton Manning should shred up a Washington defense that has lost Brandon Meriweather again, but Robert Griffin played his best game of the season last week and has been running better since the bye. He might not be fully back until next season, but he’s capable of putting up some points against an unspectacular stop unit and he’s definitely capable of a backdoor garbage time cover.

The Redskins are also in a good spot as they have no real upcoming distractions as they host San Diego next week, a game in which they will be favored. 10+ point underdogs are 42-24 ATS since 2002 before being home favorites and non-divisional road underdogs are 96-61 ATS since 2008 before being non-divisional home favorites. At the end of the day, I’m taking Denver to win their 6th game of the season by 13 or more. That trend is too powerful and the addition of Von Miller, now in his 2nd game back, could give them a real boost in terms of stopping Robert Griffin. It’s not a high confidence pick though.

Denver Broncos 41 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Denver -12.5

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 26 (+1)

Record: 2-4

Robert Griffin had his best game of the season this week against an admittedly banged up Chicago defense. He led the Redskins’ offense to 5 touchdowns in a 45-41 win, throwing for 298 yards, 2 touchdowns, and an interception on 18 of 29 passing. He also rushed for 84 yards on 11 carries and now has rushed for 161 yards on 20 carries in 2 games since the bye. That’s all promising and could continue going forward. However, their defense allowing 4 touchdowns to a Bears offense led by Josh McCown for most of the game is very concerning. Their defense has been awful this season and won’t get any better with Stephen Bowen out indefinitely with a torn PCL.

Week 7 Studs

QB Robert Griffin

TE Jordan Reed

ROLB Brian Orakpo

LOLB Ryan Kerrigan

Week 7 Duds

RE Stephen Bowen

FS Brandon Meriweather

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Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bears, Commanders, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-2) at Washington Redskins (1-4)

The Bears seem to be pretty overrated by the public. They are 4-2, but their defense has been nowhere near as good as it traditionally was in the Lovie Smith era. Last year, they were a dominant stop unit that also took the ball away. This year, if they can’t take the ball away from you, they generally can’t stop you from scoring, forcing 19 punts in 6 games this season, which puts them dead last in the NFL in punts forced per game.

If you watched them play the 0-6 Giants at home, this was obvious as the Bears only won by 6 despite winning the turnover battle by 3, including a pick six that ended up being the deciding score. That’s a very bad thing because they won’t always be able to dominate the turnover battle. It’s something that’s very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams who have a -4 turnover margin in a given game average a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. The same is true for teams that have a turnover margin of +4 in a given game. They’ll force more punts if they stop taking away the ball as often, but this is still a stop unit that is allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate.

This is for several reasons. One is age as they have four key 30+ players on their defense in Julius Peppers, Lance Briggs, Tim Jennings, and Charles Tillman, none of whom is playing as well as they did in 2012. Injuries are also a problem. Henry Melton is the 5th of their 5 defensive studs from 2012 and he’s out for the season with a torn ACL. His backup Nate Collins is also out for the season and Stephen Paea, the other starting defensive tackle, has missed time with injury. He’ll be back this week, but the Bears will still start converted defensive end Corey Wootton at next to him. The 270 pounder is unsurprisingly getting blown off the line of scrimmage in the run game.

The third issue is probably that they miss departed defensive minded Head Coach Lovie Smith, as well as defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli. New defensive coordinator Mel Tucker does not nearly have the same track record as those two. New Head Coach Marc Trestman actually has done a great job with the offense, which, also thanks to off-season additions, is much improved this season. Still, they are moving the ball at just a 75% rate, which is worse than the rate the defense is allowing.

Despite having a worse record than the Redskins, the Redskins actually have a better differential in terms of rate of moving the chains, albeit just 3/10ths of a percent higher. In spite of this, the Bears are actually favored on the road and the public is all over them. I don’t think that’s accurate. The Redskins should move the ball with ease on the Bears and, if we assume net zero turnovers, which I think is generally a smart assumption, I think the Redskins have a much better chance of winning here at home. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is the Redskins are playing the Broncos next week. Teams are 31-64 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. They could be distracted. They should still be the right side though, especially in a must win at 1-4.

Washington Redskins 27 Chicago Bears 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Washington +1

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (-5)

Record: 1-4

Apparently a bye week was not all Robert Griffin needed to get right. Griffin ran well, as well as he had all season, carrying the ball for 77 yards on 9 carries, but completed less than 50% of his passes, 19 of 39, for 246 yards and a pick against a banged up Dallas defense against which teams had been moving the ball at will thus far this season. It’s very possible this is just a waste season for the Redskins this year. Even Tom Brady struggled (relatively) in the season after he tore his ACL and he had 4 months extra to recovery and less of a reliance on his legs. Unfortunately, the Redskins won’t have their own top-10 pick this year, but Griffin is still the kind of special talent that can win Super Bowls for this team going forward so Redskins fans have to be patient. Don’t regret that trade.

Week 6 Studs

LT Trent Williams

ROLB Brian Orakpo

CB Josh Wilson

Week 6 Duds

QB Robert Griffin

LG Kory Lichtensteiger

RG Chris Chester

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (2-3)

I could go either way on this game. On one hand, the Cowboys generally fall flat as big home favorites, at least lately. Using the opening of the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009 as a start point, they are 9-17 ATS as home favorites of 3 or more, excluding Thanksgiving home games, when they usually cover no matter what. The Cowboys gave the Broncos a real run for their money last week, but that was in a completely different dynamic as underdogs and now they could be a little flat for an inferior opponent after coming up short. The Redskins, on the other hand, could be a much improved team coming out of the bye. Mike Shanahan generally covers coming out of the bye, going 10-5 ATS, and the extra rest could have been exactly what Robert Griffin needed. He’s four games in now so he’s essentially had the pre-season he missed.

On the other hand, I legitimately think the Cowboys are a good football team and that this line at -5 might not be accurate (check out other NFL Lines). I don’t think their near win against the Broncos was a fluke. Their defense clearly still has a bunch of flaws. Injuries to Anthony Spencer and Jay Ratliff have thinned their defensive line significantly, while the defensive scheme change seems to have hurt promising youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter. However, they have one of the better offenses in football, moving the chains on 80% of opportunities (as opposed to 79% for opponents).

Tony Romo has always had a ton of weapons to throw to and he’s supposed to get Miles Austin back this week. However, he’s as well protected as he’s been in years as the Cowboys finally seem to have retooled what was once the oldest offensive line in football. Tyron Smith is emerging as a talented blindside protector in his 3rd year in the league. Doug Free has bounced back in a big way and has been one of the best right tackles in the game this season. On the interior, the additions of Brian Waters and Travis Frederick have helped immensely. Add in a healthy DeMarco Murray running well and this is a very strong offensive unit.

Unless the Redskins are significantly improved coming out of the bye, this line is too low. I’m still skeptical that Griffin will resemble his 2012 self at all this season. For one, the 1.0% interception rate he had in 2012 is probably something he’ll never match again, even if he goes on to have a Hall of Fame career. Two, he’s not going to be as effective running the football due to the combination of a terrible defense always making him play catch up and the fact that teams have had a year to study the read option. Three, even Tom Brady took a year to really get his legs under him after an ACL tear and he’s not nearly as reliant on his legs as Griffin. There’s enough for me to be scared off of being confident in the Cowboys, but they should be the right side.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -5

Confidence: None

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Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (+2)

Record: 1-3

The Redskins won their first game of the season in Oakland, but honestly I wasn’t that impressed with them. They should have blown out the Matt Flynn led Raiders, but they didn’t, as their offense mustered just 24 points (7 off of a return) against a replacement level Raiders defense. Fortunately for them, they have a bye week to get things sorted out and are only 1 game back of the division lead, with the division leader facing the Broncos this week.

Week 4 Studs

LT Trent Williams

ROLB Brian Orakpo

Week 4 Duds

TE Logan Paulsen

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Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Commanders, Raiders, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (0-3) at Oakland Raiders (1-2)

Terrelle Pryor has not technically been named the starter at quarterback for the Raiders in this one, after suffering a concussion this week, but he’s passed all of the NFL’s tests and is going to take one precautionary test before the game before the Raiders clear him. I’d be pretty surprised if he was held out of this one. Besides, I like the Redskins anyway this week and if he’s held out in favor of noodle armed pocket passer Matt Flynn, it’ll only give the Redskins an even better chance of winning and covering this 3.5 point spread.

The Redskins may be 0-3, but they had their best performance of the season last week at home for Detroit. Robert Griffin will only get better from here on out as he continues to get his legs back under him. Last week was his best performance of the season, at least in terms of how he looked in the pocket, running, and throwing the football. He completed 32 of 50 for 326 yards and a pick, with 37 yards on 6 carries in a game that was close throughout.

He’ll probably have his best performance of the season this week, not just because he’ll have another week under his belt in his return, but because of how terrible Oakland’s defense is. They are easily a bottom-5 unit and that should be reflected in the amount of points they surrender by season’s end. After beating a hapless Jacksonville team at home 19-9, the Raiders were blown out in Denver last week.

Even the final score of 37-21 doesn’t tell how big of a blowout it was. The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game. They hung with the Colts week 1, but the Colts had 7 wins by 7 points or less against 7 win or worse teams in 2012, so that’s not really saying much. The 2-14 Chiefs hung with the Colts in 2012 and the 2-14 Jaguars beat them.

The Raiders are the first team the Redskins will play where they have a clear talent advantage. This means they will be able to run their game plan like they’d like. They’ve gotten down early in all 3 of their games thus far this season and have had to abandon the read option and other quarterback runs, as well as their power running game with Alfred Morris, for that reason. The 2012 Redskins ran the ball 519 times to 442 passes, but the 2013 Redskins have run just 57 times to 139 passes. It’s not like Alfred Morris has been bad, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. He just hasn’t gotten the opportunity. It won’t surprise me at all if the Redskins rushed for over 200 yards in this game and completely took things over.

The trends favor the Redskins as well. The Raiders are home dogs before being home dogs. Inferior teams are prime candidates for upsets when they have an upcoming lull in the schedule and/or when their opponent has an upcoming daunting matchup to distract them. That’s not the case here at all. The Raiders have a home game against the Chargers next week, while the Redskins go on bye. Home dogs are 33-49 ATS since 2008 before being home dogs again and 12-25 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional home dogs. Meanwhile, the Redskins will be completely focused against an inferior opponent with an off week next week. Since 2002, teams are 61-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. They should win this one easily.

Washington Redskins 31 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Washington -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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