Commanders

Washington Redskins 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Commanders

The Redskins got to where they were this season by being aggressive. They were aggressive in trading away three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for Robert Griffin and then making him the week 1 starter immediately after. They were aggressive building their entire offense around him, creating one of the NFL’s several new innovative read option offenses. You could also say they were aggressive (though unconventional might be the better word), when they took Kirk Cousins in 4th round to be Griffin’s backup. Cousins played a key role in their playoff run, winning one game and leading a comeback in another after Griffin got hurt. They were also aggressive playing Griffin less than 100% down the stretch.

However, aggressiveness was ironically their eventual downfall. Up 14-0 in the wild card round, Robert Griffin tweaked that previous knee injury and the Redskins chose to leave him in the game. They didn’t score the rest of the way, losing 24-14, as Griffin did not look right. Worst of all, his leg gave out late in the 4th quarter and he had to be taken out. Doctors determined that he partially tore his ACL, LCL, and meniscus and that surgery would be needed. Griffin is a fantastic athlete, but he’s suffered the same ligament damage before and the Redskins are privately worried about not just his week 1 availability, but his long term outlook.

Obviously, in hindsight, taking Griffin out of the game before he reinjured himself would have been the right move, especially if they had done it at 14-0. Kirk Cousins would have been coming off the bench cold and seeing his first ever playoff action as a rookie, but he should have been able to preserve the win and, more importantly, preserve Robert Griffin.

However, I don’t disagree with the move the Redskins made. If it had worked out, Robert Griffin would have been seen as a tougher than nails hero and Mike Shanahan would have looked like a genius. Likewise, if Shanahan had pulled Griffin for Cousins and Cousins had blown the game, Shanahan would be ridiculed and Robert Griffin’s toughness could have been questioned.

We live in a results based hindsight news cycle. Most of the same people who said that Griffin should have been pulled also ridiculed Jay Cutler for sitting on the bench during the NFC Championship game a few years ago. You can’t have it both ways. Personally, I believe in toughing it out, which is why I support Shanahan’s decision. Cousins couldn’t have been trusted in that situation and you pulling your star in the middle of the biggest game of the season could have a demotivational effect on your team.

As for the Redskins in 2013, I believe they’ll privately prepare for Kirk Cousins to start at least the first few games of the season. Robert Griffin could begin the year on the PUP, which would cost him the first 6 weeks. Cousins has shown he’s capable on occasion, but he’s no sure thing. The Redskins will be getting several other key players back from injury, pass rusher Brian Orakpo and starter Adam Carriker will return on defense, while they should get more out of top receiver Pierre Garcon. However, not having Griffin out there or not having him 100% will hurt. The Redskins’ tremendous fumble luck won’t carry over in 2013 either (they recovered 20 of 29 fumbles in the regular season and scored 3 times off them). Given that, it’ll be tough for them to make the playoffs again in 2013.

Offensive Tackle

Jammal Brown missed the entire season with a hip injury. He hasn’t been the same since injuring that hip in 2009. Even when he has been on the field, he’s been terrible. Owed 3.5 million next season, he’s an obvious candidate for release. Tyler Polumbus, who played on the right side in Brown’s absence this year, was among the worst offensive tackles in the league. Out of 80 eligible offensive tackles, Polumbus ranked 77th on ProFootbalFocus last season.

Safety

Brandon Meriweather is their top safety, but he tore his ACL in November and was having trouble staying healthy even before that. He can’t be counted on. Neither can any of their other safeties. Madieu Williams, Reed Doughty, and DeJon Gomes aren’t very good and Williams is also a free agent. They need to add at least one new starter at safety this off-season.

Cornerback

Nickel cornerback Cedric Griffin is a free agent, while DeAngelo Hall might not be back either. He’s owed 7.5 million next season and is a rumored candidate for release, though he’s said he’d restructure to stay with the team. If either one of those two aren’t back, they’ll need to find a replacement because their in house options aren’t very good.

Middle Linebacker

Age appears to have finally caught up with London Fletcher, who graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 51st ranked middle linebacker out of 53. Owed 5.5 million in an age 38 contract year in 2013, he’s considering retirement and that might be the best thing for the Redskins because he’s not worth that money if he keeps playing like this, but I don’t know if they can really cut him either because he’s been there so long. If he’s not back, 2012 4th round pick Keenan Robinson is a potential successor, but they might want some more competition.

Tight End

Fred Davis tore his ACL mid-season and he’s a free agent this off-season anyway, as he was playing on the franchise tag in 2012. If he’s not brought back, they need another pass catching tight end. Replacement Logan Paulsen blocks well, but doesn’t do much in the passing game.

Rush Linebacker

Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo are a great duo when healthy, but Orakpo will be coming off a torn pectoral that cost him most of this season. Rob Jackson and Lorenzo Alexander split snaps in his absence, but both are free agents this off-season. They really need some depth and insurance for Orakpo.

Punter

Sav Rocca is a solid punter, but he’s coming off a torn MCL and he’s a free agent this off-season. The Redskins will either need to re-sign him or replace him.

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: Wild Card Round Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Playoffs 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Seahawks

For analysis on Seattle click here
For analysis on Washington click here

Unlike in past years, the Seahawks aren’t just a good home team. They’re a good team with a great home field advantage. After all, they do rank #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA. However, they still have road losses against St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami, as well as close calls against Carolina and Chicago, all 6 of whom missed the playoffs. The Seahawks are just 7-12 ATS as road favorites since 2005 and I like that Washington may feel slighted that no one is really talking about them to win this game. I think Seattle has a better chance to win this game, but I’m going to grab the 3 points for a small play. It would have to be all the way past the key line of 4 for me to play a significant play on the Redskins though.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against spread: Washington +3 (-110) 2 units

Washington Redskins: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Playoffs 1 Power Rankings, Commanders

I have the Redskins ranked higher than the Ravens because they beat them head-to-head and because the NFC is by far the better conference this year overall (AFC divisional winners are 0-6 against NFC playoff teams). However, I like the Ravens to advance further than the Redskins because of their competition. The Redskins have a very good team and are deserving NFC East Champions, but I don’t think they are on the same level as fellow NFC divisional winners Atlanta, San Francisco, and Green Bay, all 3 of whom they’d have to play on the road.

In fact, they don’t even get an easy home game to start things off. They open up as 3 point home dogs against the Seahawks. While the Vikings, Bengals, and Colts, the other 3 wild cards, are ranked as the 3 worst teams in these playoff Power Rankings, the Seahawks might have the best overall team in the league, ranking 1st in DVOA and weighted DVOA. The Redskins saving grace might be their home field advantage as the Seahawks are 3-5 away from their excellent home crowd this season, including losses to teams much worse than Washington like St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, and Detroit. That might not be enough to get the Redskins a playoff win however.

Projected fate: Lose to Seahawks in Wild Card round

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Washington Redskins (9-6)

The name of the game is simple for the Dallas Cowboys. If they lose, they go home. If they win, they win the NFC East. For the Redskins, it’s a little bit more complicated. They clinch the division with a win, same as with the Cowboys, but they can technically still make the playoffs if they lose, assuming an improbable sequence of events happens earlier in the day before this Sunday Night showdown. I don’t think that will, however, and either way, both teams will be treating this as a must win game as the prize for both teams is a home playoff game.

Assuming we were getting enough points, I was thinking of thinking the Cowboys here. A very good trend is on their side. Road dogs are 52-26 ATS trying to avenge a same season home loss as favorites. The logic behind this is simple: when the location of the game between two teams determines who is favored and who is not, that generally means those two teams are evenly matched and I’d say that’s about right with these two teams. When two teams are evenly matched, they tend to split the season series and if one team wins as dogs on the road, it generally evens out with the other team getting revenge and at least covering as dogs on the road in the next game (40-41 SU).

However, we’re just getting no line value with the Cowboys. These two teams are fairly even, but the Redskins are the better team. They rank 13th in net points per drive, 11th in DVOA, and 8th in weighted DVOA. Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank 17th, 14th, and 15th respectively. If you take the difference between the Redskins’ net points per drive and the Cowboys’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that the Redskins should be favored by 4.5, a figure that is pretty well supported by DVOA.

Furthermore, as bad as the Cowboys generally are in December, I can’t take them to win this game and that would be what I would be doing taking them plus a field goal. Tony Romo is 12-21 ATS after week 14 in his career, though slightly better, 9-12 ATS, as dogs. They’re also 11-6 ATS as road dogs since 2009 (while they struggle as home favorites). Still, I can’t pick them to win here. Games in which a team is a dog are generally a low pressure situations, which is where these Cowboys thrive, but this is far from a low pressure situation, so I have to lay the points. I really wish we were getting at least 3.5, but it’d have to be more than 4 for me to feel comfortable.

Public lean: Washington (50% range)

Washington Redskins 31 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against spread: Washington -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Washington Redskins: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record: 9-6

Net points per drive: 0.13 (13th)

DVOA: 7.5% (11th)

Weighted DVOA: 13.1% (8th)

Studs

QB Robert Griffin: 16 of 24 for 198 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 2 throw aways, 2 batted passes, 3 drops, 105.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 25 drop backs (1 sack, 1 of 3, 2 throw aways)

RB Alfred Morris: Rushed for 91 yards (52 after contact) and a touchdown on 22 attempts, 5 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 17 yards on 1 attempt

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 32 yards on 6 attempt

RG Chris Chester: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RT Maurice Hurt: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 1 attempt

WR Pierre Garcon: Caught 7 passes for 89 yards on 7 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

MLB Perry Riley: 8 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 17 yards on 4 attempts

LE Jarvis Jenkins: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Ryan Kerrigan: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 51 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 penalty

Duds

MLB London Fletcher: 8 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 9 catches for 82 yards on 11 attempts, 1 interception

FS Madieu Williams: Allowed 4 catches for 46 yards on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle, 1 sack on 1 blitz

FS Jordan Pugh: Allowed 1 catch for 18 yards on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle, 2 missed tackles

RE Stephen Bowen: 1 quarterback hit on 41 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles

Washington Redskins (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10)

Some situational trends say that the Redskins are the right side here. Teams are 35-19 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, on the Eagles side, divisional home dogs are 23-38 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. That being said, I feel like this is too many points for me to feel comfortable, especially with the public all over Washington.

There was no early line last week because of Griffin’s questionable status, so there’s no way to know if this is an overreaction line, but Cincinnati was just -4 in Philadelphia last week. The Bengals have the same record as the Redskins and won the head to head matchup in Cincinnati. I know the Bengals won by 21, but they actually trailed by 3 in the 3rd quarter before a ridiculous 4 turnover in 5 plays stretch by the Eagles, though I guess that’s just what the Eagles do. Again, the Redskins should be the right side, but this is way too many points on the road for me to be comfortable. We might have gotten a little carried away with the Redskins and because of that, the odds makers can boost the spread and know people will still take them, as has been the case.

Using net points per drive, we see that we do have significant line value with the Eagles. The Redskins rank 14th in net points per drive at 0.08, while the Eagles rank 27th at -0.47. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to Philadelphia’s side for home field advantage, you get that Washington should be favored by just 3.5 points. DVOA supports this, but only somewhat as the Redskins and Eagles rank 11th and 27th respectively in DVOA, but 9th and 29th respectively in weighted DVOA. Washington is the pick, but it’s not a big play.

Public lean: Washington (80% range)

Sharps lean: WAS 22 PHI 8

Final thoughts: I guess I can put one more unit on Washington, though this is at -5.5 in the Supercontest. I wouldn’t go over a touchdown.

Washington Redskins 27 Philadelphia Eagles 16

Pick against spread: Washington -6 (-110) 2 units

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Washington Redskins: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders

Last week: 8 (-1)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: 0.08 (14th)

DVOA: 7.1% (11th)

Weighted DVOA: 10.2% (9th)

In a complicated NFC, the Redskins outcome seems easiest to predict. All they have to do is beat Philadelphia and Dallas and they win the NFC East and the 4th seed, which I think they will. That sets them up with a playoff matchup against the Seahawks in the first round and as good as the Seahawks have been this year, they’ve already lost to St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami on the road, so Washington’s winning streak could continue into the playoffs right into a rematch with the Falcons (who beat them by 7 in Washington earlier this year, in a game in which Robert Griffin got hurt). That would be an interesting one, but I think the home dominant Falcons would emerge victorious.

Studs

RT Jordan Black: Did not allow a pressure on 20 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

LT Trent Williams: Allowed 1 sack on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 30 yards on 7 attempts

CB Josh Wilson: Allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB DeAngelo Hall: Allowed 6 catches for 37 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes

ROLB Rob Jackson: 1 sack on 16 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 interception

Duds

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Perry Riley: Allowed 4 catches for 42 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Browns, Commanders

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely than not that Robert Griffin plays. Normally, when a quarterback is a game time decision, he plays.

It’s only when a quarterback is ruled out in the week prior that he doesn’t play and this is such a huge game for the Redskins if they want to make the playoffs, I can’t see him sitting out. The fact that lines are already starting to trickle in is a good sign, especially since Washington is favored by 1 (they were favored by 2.5 a week ago). That suggests that the odds makers are fairly sure Griffin will play.

I’m going to make this pick as if I’m fairly sure Griffin will play, for that reason. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are just -13 in points differential and they rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.03. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. These teams are basically equal and if you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cleveland should be favored by those 2.5 points.

However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA. Washington ranks 10th in DVOA, which takes things into account things like strength of schedule, and 11th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks 25th in regular and 20th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland is also in a bad spot as home dogs off a win as home favorites, a situation teams are 52-72 ATS in since 1989, the only trend that is relevant in this one.

Furthermore, I just don’t want to bet against Griffin right now and I don’t think the Browns are ready to win straight up against a team like the Redskins yet. They’ve hung with some good teams, but they need to win straight up to cover here. It’s only a small play because of the uncertainty of Griffin and it would rank near the bottom in any confidence pools, but the Redskins are the pick.

Public lean: ?

Final update: Griffin was surprisingly ruled out today and Kirk Cousins will start tomorrow. This line is now Cleveland -2. I like betting on good teams starting backup quarterbacks as they tend to give 110% to compensate and opponents tend to overlook them. Remember the Steelers beating the Ravens with Charlie Batch?

The Browns also have bigger things to worry about as they have trips to Denver and Pittsburgh next on the agenda. Favorites are 35-72 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown dogs and 7-20 ATS before being touchdown dogs in two straight. Teams are also 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Redskins go to Philadelphia next week, when they should have Griffin back. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008.

It’d be a bigger play, but I feel like the 4.5 point line movement from last week (the Redskins were -2.5) is not enough to compensate for Griffin’s loss, especially considering the Browns looked pretty impressive last week, blowing out the Chiefs. Griffin might be the league’s most valuable player outside of Brady and Manning this year and the Redskins supporting cast isn’t very good. It’d be a big play at +4 or more, but not at +2. The Redskins should be the right side though.

Final update II: Now at +4, I like the Redskins a lot more.

Washington Redskins 20 Cleveland Browns 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Washington +4 (-110) 3 units

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Washington Redskins: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders

Last week: 8 (+0)

Record: 7-6

Net points per drive: -0.02 (15th)

DVOA: 5.3% (10th)

Weighted DVOA: 9.2% (11th)

Robert Griffin should be good to go this week against the Browns. With games against the Browns, Eagles, and Cowboys in their final 3, they will be favored in all 3 of their last 3 games, while the Giants will only be favored in 1. Chalk gets them this division at 10-6 and even if they win out and the Giants pull one upset against either the Ravens or Falcons, the Redskins will still win the division on their divisional record tiebreaker. That would get them a home playoff game, in which they’d likely be favored. It might sound weird, but chalk gets this team to the divisional record, which I why I have them 8th.

Studs

QB Robert Griffin: 15 of 26 for 246 yards and a touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 105.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 17 of 34 drop backs (3 sacks, 5 scrambles, 4 of 9, 1 touchdown, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown), rushed for 25 yards on 7 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble

RB Alfred Morris: Rushed for 122 yards (93 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 attempts, 7 broken tackles, 1 fumble

LOLB Ryan Kerrigan: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

RT Tyler Polumbus: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for -2 yards on 2 attempts

C Will Montgomery: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 66 yards on 8 attempts

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 25 yards on 4 attempts

TE Logan Paulsen: Caught 1 pass for 8 yards on 1 attempt on 30 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty, allowed 3 hurries on 9 pass block snaps

CB DeAngelo Hall: Allowed 5 catches for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Madieu Williams: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 5 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes, was not thrown on

RE Stephen Bowen: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

TE Niles Paul: 2 kickoff returns for 37 yards, 1 fumble, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 2 attempts

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Baltimore Ravens at Washington Redskins: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Commanders, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (9-3) at Washington Redskins (6-6)

Every once in a while, I like to look ahead and see which games I think I’ll take for big plays and upset picks. Last week, I looked at this one and I really expected to take the Redskins for a big play. The Ravens struggle as non-divisional road favorites and would have been looking forward to a much bigger game against Denver the following week. Teams generally struggle off a win against the Steelers as well. The Redskins would have been totally focused as dogs before being favorites and I felt the Ravens were generally overrated.

Well, a lot has changed in the last week. The Redskins pulled off the home upset against the Giants, which isn’t particularly shocking. After all, I predicted as much last week. However, what was shocking was the Ravens losing at home to the Steelers. I picked the Steelers +8.5 for a pick of the week because those two teams always play close and Charlie Batch wasn’t nearly as bad as people thought he was, but I never gave the Charlie Batch led Steelers a chance to win in Baltimore, where the Ravens had ripped off 16 straight wins.

That Baltimore loss changed things. The first thing it changed was the line. The Ravens are actually now dogs here, rather than favorites. Not only is that a huge line movement (which I generally like to fade because I hate putting too much stock into one week), but it changes up the dynamic of the game and the associated trends, which is the second thing it really changed. The Ravens aren’t coming off a win against the Steelers like I thought they would be. They aren’t non-divisional road favorites. And now that the Redskins look like a scary team, I don’t know if they’ll look past this game, even with a huge conference matchup up next against Denver.

First, about the line movement: I’ve called the Ravens overrated all season, but they might actually be underrated right now. I’m actually kind of shocked that they are 2.5 point dogs here. The Ravens rank 9th in net points per drive at 0.35, which is worse than their 9-3 record would suggest, as a result of their lack of blowout wins (a ridiculous 5 of their 9 wins have come by 3 points or fewer), but better than the Redskins, who rank 16th at -0.04.

If we take the difference and multiply by 11 and push the line 3 points in Washington’s direction for home field, we get that the Ravens should still be road favorites here of about 1.5 points. Of course, DVOA does point a slightly different picture. Baltimore ranks 9th in DVOA and Washington ranks 11th, but Baltimore does rank 10th in weighted DVOA and Washington remains at 11th. Given that, this line does make some more sense. That’s basically a theme of this game: a cloudy picture.

Injuries will play a factor. Washington is playing better lately thanks to the return of Pierre Garcon at wide receiver, which has actually given Robert Griffin a proven downfield receiver, something he lacked for most of the season (which makes what he’s doing this year even more impressive). On Baltimore’s side, Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb obviously remain out, but Terrell Suggs, who returned right when they left to help make up for their absence somewhat, is questionable with a torn biceps.

It’s not often that someone is questionable after tearing their biceps, something that would have ended most players’ seasons, but this is the same guy who returned from a torn Achilles in 5 months and played at a high level. He and Adrian Peterson are freaks of nature that injuries just don’t affect same way as most players. Suggs expects to play, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll be limited. If he is, it could really hurt Baltimore’s overrated defense, which was already going to have issues stopping Robert Griffin and this pistol offense.

The trends seem to paint a cloudy picture as well. John Harbaugh is 5-3 ATS off a loss as favorites, including 2-0 ATS as dogs off a loss as favorites. That is a very limited sample size, but I generally like to take elite Head Coaches as dogs off a loss as favorites and I feel Harbaugh is one. This team will have a chip on their shoulder. Besides, teams are 16-8 ATS as dogs off a close divisional loss as touchdown favorites since 1989, including 11-3 ATS in a non-divisional contest. Meanwhile, teams are 3-13 ATS as home favorites after a win as home dogs since 2008 and teams are 7-22 ATS as favorites off a close home win as divisional dogs since 1989. That all makes sense. The Redskins might be overconfident off a huge home upset win and the Ravens are the ones with the chip on their shoulder now.

However, some trends contradict that. Road dogs are 23-42 ATS off a loss as favorites before being home dogs. The Ravens are expected to be home dogs against Denver next week. In a way, the Ravens’ loss last week actually made next week’s game against the Broncos even bigger for them so they might look past the Redskins a little bit because that game next week will matter more playoff seeding wise because it’s a potential tiebreaker. Meanwhile, on the Washington side, home favorites are 68-35 ATS before being road favorites in two straight. The Redskins have the Browns and Eagles in their next 2 weeks. This is their only hard game for a while and probably their toughest remaining opponent. That could help make sure they’re focused.

I’m taking the Redskins for a very small play for two reasons. The first is that history suggests they’ll make the playoffs. There have been 5 new playoff teams in each of the last 17 seasons. Right now, 7 incumbent playoff teams are locked into the 12 playoff spots. The Redskins need to win the NFC East and knock the Giants out and someone needs to knock the Packers out (admittedly the former is much more likely).

The Redskins could definitely win the NFC East though. They are 6-6 and will be favored in their next 4 games. If they win out, the only way the Giants can win the division is if they too win out and their schedule is much tougher as they will be dogs in 2 of 4 games. Even if the Redskins go 3-1 in their final 4, the Giants will need to also do that, which would mean beating two of the Saints, Ravens (in Baltimore, where the Ravens are much tougher, more on that later), and the Falcons (in Atlanta). The Redskins should actually be the favorites in the NFC East right now (which they aren’t) and a win here would go a long way towards helping that happen.

The 2nd reason is what I just mentioned: The Ravens home/road disparity. It doesn’t seem to be as big of a deal when they are road dogs, but that’s a much smaller sample size. Over the past 3 seasons, they’ve ripped off a 16 game home winning streak, going 21-2 at home overall, but they are just 14-11 on the road. Their average home game is a 27-17 win and on the road their average game is a 20-18 loss.

Joe Flacco seems to be a completely different quarterback on the road as well. You can see that above as the defense seems to be consistent home and away, but it’s the offense that struggles. At home, Flacco completes 60.7% of his passes for an average of 8.0 YPA, 36 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. On the road, he completes 59.1% of his passes for an average of 6.3 YPA, 31 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions. I think Griffin is going to get his and it’ll be up to Flacco to keep up and I don’t know if he quite can, even though Washington’s defense has plenty of holes. I don’t have a great feel for this one though.

Public lean: Washington (50% range)

Sharps lean: BAL 17 WAS 11

Final thoughts: Terrell Suggs is out for the Ravens, which is a big deal, but I don’t have a good enough feel for this game to trust this pick.

Washington Redskins 27 Baltimore Ravens 24

Pick against spread: Washington -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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