Commanders

Redskins list Pierre Garcon as doubtful, expect Josh Wilson to play, put two on IR

stevenlourie Commanders, News

The Redskins were dealt crippling blows to their defense last week, losing starting cornerback Josh Wilson, top pass rusher Brian Orakpo, and starting defensive lineman Adam Carriker in the game against St. Louis. The trio played 52, 18, and 2 of 71 snaps respectively. The Redskins’ poor defense had a ton of trouble stopping a Rams offense that isn’t great to begin with and after the game, they were forced to put Orakpo and Carriker on IR. Carriker’s loss isn’t huge. He’s a marginal starter and they have 2011 2nd round pick Jarvis Jenkins waiting in the wings. However, Orakpo was their best pass rusher and they had no depth behind him. The mediocre Rob Jackson, a 2008 7th round pick and a career backup, will take his place in the lineup, a huge downgrade.

The good news is that Wilson is expected to play this week despite suffering a concussion last week. He’ll continue to start opposite DeAngelo Hall. Neither of those cornerbacks are that great, but if Wilson had to miss and Cedric Griffin were forced to start, it would have been bad for the Redskins’ defense. Griffin is a decent nickel back, but he’s struggled when counted on to start in the past.

Luckily for the Redskins, they get an easy matchup at home against the Bengals this week. Cincinnati ranks 31st in points per play differential and their defense might be just as bad as the Redskins’ defense. Andy Dalton and compnay will move the ball in this one, but Robert Griffin should have another huge game in an eventual winning effort.

Griffin will be without top receiver Pierre Garcon again, but he didn’t miss him too much last week, completing 20 of 29 for 206 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception, while rushing for another 82 yards and 2 scores against a solid Rams defense. The Redskins have plenty of wide receiver depth with Santana Moss, Aldrick Robinson, Josh Morgan, and Leonard Hankerson, who had the big game last week, catching 2 passes for 68 yards and a score. Unfortunately for Garcon owners in fantasy leagues, it’s still unclear who the Washington receiver to own in his absence his. 7 players had between 3 of 5 targets last week. They like to spread it around.

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Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Commanders

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Washington Redskins (1-1)

Before the season, I identified 5 overrated and 5 underrated teams, with the idea of betting on them (or against them) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. This served me well as I’m 10-4 this year on games involving those 10 teams  (and one of those losses is because I abandoned shipped on the Bills after week 1 and picked the Chiefs last week). However, two weeks into the season, I’ve had to adapt that a little. However, one thing remains the same. I still feel the Bengals are overrated.

In the opener, they got destroyed by a Baltimore team that I also saw as overrated because their injuries and other losses defensively. That assessment of the Ravens has proven to be true as they’ve allowed 808 yards in 2 games, 27th in the NFL. The Bengals, however, managed just 323 of those yards. Andy Dalton, especially, struggled. He completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

Last week, Dalton played better against the lowly Browns’ defense, completing 24 of 31 for 318 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception, but he was still just 5 of 10 on throws longer than 10 yards through the air (as a rookie, he was 83 of 173). Even last week, only 165 of his 318 yards were through the air. The more troubling thing from that game is that their defense, which was torched by Joe Flacco in the opener, was once again torched by Brandon Weeden.

Through 2 games, the Bengals have allowed 49 of 69 for 710 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions to two quarterbacks who are a combined 34 of 77 for 325 yards, 1 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in their other games. Part of that has to do with their competition’s competition (both Weeden and Flacco have also faced Philadelphia, but Cincinnati has really done a poor job in pass coverage this year). Despite an average schedule at best, the Bengals rank 31st in the league in yards per play differential, which is my favorite stat and one I feel does the best job of summing up how a team has played and of projecting how they will play in the future.

Last year, the Bengals were 0-8 against playoff teams. A big part of the reason was that Andy Dalton really struggled in those 8 games, completing 55.6% of his passes for an average of 6.5 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. He’s a physically limited quarterback, but offensive coordinator Jay Gruden does a great job of masking his weaknesses and highlighting his strengths. However, that doesn’t really fly against good defense.

The good news for Dalton and the Bengals is that the Redskins don’t really have a good defense. They have a great offense, which is why their yards per play differential is positive, but they have one of the worst opponent yards per play averages in the league. In the opener, they played the Saints, which is excusable, but last week and gave up 452 yards to the Rams. That’s not excusable. They’re also banged up right now as Adam Carriker and Brian Orakpo are done for the season and Josh Wilson is expected to be out at least this game. Their absences were part of the reason why they were so bad last week defensively.

Carriker’s absence isn’t huge because he’s just a marginal starter and they have a 2011 2nd round pick in Jarvis Jenkins waiting in the wings. The other two hurt much more. Josh Wilson was a solid starting cornerback in an overall weak secondary. He’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Cedric Griffin, who is a fine nickel cornerback, but he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to start in the past. Orakpo’s injury is the killer. Not only is it season ending, but he’s their best pass rusher, but they have no depth behind him. Rob Jackson will get the start this week. The Redskins still have Ryan Kerrigan to pressure the quarterback, but this defense is really lacking in talent right now and the Bengals will be able to move the ball on them.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, is heading in the opposite direction injury wise, at least defensively, as they’re getting healthier. This is a welcome sight for a defense that has been torched in the first 2 games. Because of injuries, they’ve had to feature washed up guys like Nate Clements and Terence Newman in the secondary, next to Leon Hall, who is still not 100% just 10 months removed from an Achilles tear, and they’ve also been without top pass rusher Carlos Dunlap. Rookie cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick will not return this week, but cornerback Jason Allen and Dunlap are expected to.

Allen will help in the secondary and Dunlap will help a pass rush that has ranked 23rd in pass rush efficiency without him. Leon Hall, who has been uncharacteristically torched in the first 2 games, surrendering 10 completions for 143 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts, is another week healthier closer to 100% this week. However, Robert Griffin and this offense has been unstoppable in the first 2 games, even by a solid Rams defense, so they should have no problem moving the ball on the Bengals defense that is average at best.

Still, I think the Bengals are overrated. Even with those two teams trending in opposite directions injury wise, there’s no way these two teams are even like this line suggests (3 points for home field advantage). Cincinnati got blown out by an overrated Baltimore team that doesn’t have the defense they normally do and then only beat a crappy Browns team without their top defensive player by 7. Washington, meanwhile, went into to New Orleans and beat a Saints team that hadn’t lost their in 9 games last season, and then hung close with an underrated Rams team in St. Louis. Now they head home and they should be able to win pretty easily here. Injuries are the only reason this isn’t a bigger bet.

Update: Josh Wilson is expected to play, which is a boost to an ailing Redskins defense. Also, I forgot to mention, week 1 rookie starting quarterbacks are 8-1 SU and ATS since 2008. I’m adding an extra unit to Washington.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Cincinnati covers)

Washington Redskins 31 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Washington -3 (-115) 4 units

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Washington Redskins: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders

Last week: 16 (+2)

Record: 1-1

There’s nothing wrong with losing by 3 to the Rams in St. Louis. I’ve said all along the Rams are underrated and the Rams and Redskins are pretty evenly matched. The bad news is on the injury front. The Rams lost three starters in the loss, including two for the season. Josh Wilson will miss at least a game, so Cedric Griffin will step into the starting lineup for him at cornerback. Brian Orakpo is done for the year, which is the bigger one because he’s their best pass rusher and they have no depth behind him. Adam Carriker is also done for the year, but they have a 2011 2nd rounder waiting in the wings behind him. This week for the Redskins is a matchup at home with the overrated Bengals, one of the worst teams in the league, in my opinion.

Studs

QB Robert Griffin: 20 of 29 for 209 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 98.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 34 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 5 of 8, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 interception), 82 yards (21 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 11 carries, 2 broken tackles

C Will Montgomery: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 62 yards on 7 attempts

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 45 yards on 6 attempts

CB Josh Wilson: Allowed 1 catch for 1 yards on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

RE Stephen Bowen: 1 sack, 1 quarterback pressure, and 3 quarterback hits on 37 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

RT Tyler Polumbus: Allowed 7 quarterback hurries on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

TE Fred Davis: Caught 2 passes for 14 yards on 5 attempts on 30 pass plays, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

SS DeJon Gomes: Allowed 6 catches for 106 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

CB Cedric Griffin: Allowed 3 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LE Jarvis Jenkins: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, no tackles

RE Kedric Golston: Did not record a pressure on 13 pass rush snaps, no tackles

NT Barry Cofield: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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It’s an issue of pain tolerance for Redskins’ Pierre Garcon

stevenlourie Commanders, News

Pierre Garcon got off to a hell of a start to his season, catching 4 passes on Robert Griffin’s first 5 attempts, for 104 yards and a touchdown, looking like Kendall Wright tearing up the Big 12 with Robert Griffin last season. However, he got hurt after that and left the game with a foot injury. He did some very limited work in practice this week and he’s expected to be a game time decision. According to Head Coach Mike Shanahan, in an interview with CSN Washington, it will be a “pain tolerance” issue for Garcon, meaning, if Garcon can play through the pain, he can play. If not, he’ll sit. For what it’s worth, NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora believes he’ll sit.

In Garcon’s absence, Aldrick Robinson did his best Garcon impression, catching 4 passes for 52 yards and a score and leading the team in targets. It’s clear that Griffin likes speedsters threats like Garcon and Robinson, over possession receivers like Santana Moss and tight end Fred Davis, so Garcon should be in for another big game if healthy. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, this game is a 4 o’clock start so your options will be limited if Garcon ends up not going. Only start him if you have someone who starts at that time or later that you’d be comfortable replacing him with. Picking on Robinson as a handcuff might not be a terrible idea.

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Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, Rams

Washington Redskins (1-0) at St. Louis Rams (0-1)

I had the Rams as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They improved 6 games in 2010, but, as could have been predictable, regressed 5 games last year. Teams that have a large improvement in win total typically regress the following season and vice versa. They should bounce back this year. Teams that regress 5 games win an average of 1.6 more the following season. The Rams were destroyed by injuries last year and should have better health in the secondary and on the offensive line, where they also added key free agents. A healthier offensive line should lead to a healthier and better Sam Bradford under center, while, on the defensive side of the ball, they have one of the league’s best defensive lines and should be able to win some games with strong defense, running the football, and decent quarterback play.

The idea with picking underrated and overrated teams before the season was to bet on them (or against them for overrated teams) until they proved me wrong or the odds makers caught up. In 7 games involving these teams week 1, I went 5-2 ATS so I will be continuing that this week as I post recommendations for you to bet on nfl football, unless I have been proven wrong on a team.

I haven’t exactly been proven wrong on the Rams. They played about as well as I thought they would against the Lions, as I nailed my 5 unit pick (+7.5). It took a late Lions’ comeback to beat the Rams in Detroit, which is definitely an accomplishment for this team after the season they had last year. However, there are two concerns with them.

They lost two starters on the offensive line to injury, center Scott Wells and left tackle Rodger Saffold against the Rams. Part of my reasoning for an improved Rams team was an improved offensive line, with Scott Wells coming in and Rodger Saffold coming back from injury. That can’t really happen if both are hurt. The other thing was that Steven Jackson looked pretty done. History suggests he should have one more good year in him, but that’s no guarantee and he was just held to 53 yards on 21 carries by a Lions run defense that ranked 28th in the league in 2011. If he is done, three things will need to happen. The coaching staff will need to reduce his role. He will have to accept this reduced role without being upset. And rookies Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson will have to prove themselves capable of larger roles. That’s easier said than done, but if they can do that, they should still be able to run the conservative offense they’ll need to run to win games.

The good news is that Saffold is expected to be back for this game. He’s always been good when healthy and held his own against a strong Lions pass rush last week before going down and should be able to do the same this week against a strong Redskins pass rush. However, without Wells, they now have 3 holes on the offensive line (left guard, center, right tackle), so Bradford will be under some pressure in this one. That could also hurt their running game, which they really need to get back on track. They have a good defense and if they run the ball and make life easy for Sam Bradford, they can win some games. I haven’t quite even up on Steven Jackson yet though.

The Redskins held the Saints’ running game in check last week, but only because the Saints had to abandon the run early. This was the 18th ranked run defense in 2011 and they return a similar group of personnel, so they can be run on if the Redskins’ offense doesn’t force the Rams to abandon the run. The Redskins can also be thrown on. Their secondary and their defense is general is going to be a weakness. Even though the Saints’ offense was on the field for a league low 20:50 minutes last week, they still scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal and had 358 yards of offense.

So the big question is can Robert Griffin do what he did last week? I’m going to say no, for two reasons. The first is that he’s a rookie. He’s going to have some ups and downs. Even the best rookies do. Last week was definitely an up, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be that good again this week, especially against a better defense. St. Louis kept Detroit in check last week on the road. Now they’re at home, where they are a better team. In 2010, their last good season, they were 5-3 at home, as opposed to 2-6 on the road.

I’m taking the Rams for a pretty sizable bet for several reasons. I still think the Rams are underrated, despite a solid showing last week, while Washington might be a little bit overrated. They had a very good performance last week, but the Saints aren’t the normal Saints and Griffin, by his nature as a rookie, will be inconsistent. He could look more like a rookie this week against a tougher Rams defense.

The Redskins’ defense, meanwhile, is a concern. Their defense wasn’t great last year, ranking 21st in scoring. Some of that had to do with the offense’s poor play, leading to the defense having to see the field more than average, but the Saints proved last week that the Redskins have some problems defensively as they put up a lot of yards in the little time they actually saw the field. If the Redskins’ defense is on the field around 30 minutes this week, Bradford and company should be able to move the ball against them and keep this a close game.

I think this will be a close game either way and I feel like the line should be something like -2 or -3 in favor of St. Louis (3 points for home field advantage), so there’s definitely line value. As long as I’m getting more than 3 points with St. Louis, I’m making a pretty sizeable bet. I don’t think Washington has proven enough yet to be worth being road favorites or more than 3, especially against an underrated Rams team.

Public lean: Washington (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

St. Louis Rams 23 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: St. Louis +3.5 (-110) 3 units

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Washington Redskins: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders

Last week: 16 (+0)

Record: 1-0

There isn’t much that needs to be said. The Redskins went into New Orleans with a rookie quarterback and beat a Saints team that was undefeated at home last year. The defense is a bit of a concern, but then again, they were playing Drew Brees, and any potential Robert Griffin week to week inconsistencies are also a concern and very possible because he is a rookie, but this team is surely in the mix in a tough NFC East. It’s really anyone’s division and several good teams are going to end up missing the playoffs

Studs

C Will Montgomery: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 69 yards on 15 carries

OT Trent Williams: Allowed 1 quarterback pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked 25 yards on 5 carries, 1 penalty

QB Robert Griffin: 19 of 26 for 320 yards, 3 touchdowns, 3 drops, and 1 throw away, 119.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured 8 times, 42 yards rushing (28 after contact) on 9 carries, 1 broken tackle

WR Pierre Garcon: 4 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets on 5 pass snaps, 24.8 YAC per catch

LOLB Ryan Kerrigan: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 7 quarterback pressures on 49 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops on 15 run snaps

CB Josh Wilson: Allowed 1 completion for 25 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles and 1 assist on 15 run snaps

K Billy Cundiff: 9 kickoffs, 6 touchbacks, 73.7 yards per kickoff, 20.8 average starting distance, 4/4 on field goals (37, 37, 41, 45)

Duds

LE Adam Carriker: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, and quarterback pressures on 32 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop on 10 run snaps

WR Josh Morgan: 1 catch for 21 yards on 2 targets on 24 pass snaps, 7.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

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Redskins to be without Brandon Meriweather for 2-4 weeks

stevenlourie Commanders, News

Expected to be a starting safety for the Redskins, Brandon Meriweather has sprained his MCL and PCL during practice, re-aggravating an injury that plagued him during Training Camp, and he will miss about 2-4 weeks. Meriweather is not a great safety, even though he’s made two Pro Bowls. The Patriots cut him last offseason as a surprising final cut and the Bears took a chance on him, but ended up benching him, proving the Patriots right (happens all the time). However, Meriweather is the best the Redskins have at safety.

Starting in his absence will be Reed Doughty, who really struggled in limited action last season, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 81st rated safety out of 84. The other starter is Madieu Williams, who barely played as a backup in San Francisco last season. In 2010 though, he was a starter in Minnesota and he was awful, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 86th out of 87. Safety figures to be a major problem on an otherwise good defense. The Redskins have a stout front 7 and some talent at the cornerback position and will be better than people think, but they have no hope of containing Jimmy Graham when the play the Saints this week.

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Redskins won’t name starting running back

stevenlourie Commanders, News

Redskins’ Head Coach Mike Shanahan loves a murky running back situation. He loves his opponents not to know what kind of back they’ll have to game plan against and he loves to be able to switch running backs depending on the matchup. It’s a smart football philosophy, but it creates a wasteland in fantasy leagues. Alfred Morris, Evan Royster, and Roy Helu all will probably start at some point this season and not just that, any of those 3 could start this week. I’d also be willing to be bet that a running back not currently on the Redskins’ roster (Steve Slaton? Tim Hightower? Ryan Torain?) will get a start for the team this season.

Shanahan has one of his murkiest running back situations ever this season. Not only do we not know who the starter will be, as Shanahan refused to name one publicly, preferring to “keep them guessing,” the players themselves don’t seem to know either. Evan Royster, one of the candidates, says “I think they’re going to keep us pretty much in the dark until probably the day before the game.” That may be a smoke screen, but former Redskin Chris Cooley, who has no reason to lie on behalf of the organization that cut him last month, says that he didn’t know who the starter would be last season on a weekly basis.

Cooley recounts a story to CBS Washington about last season saying “I walked up to Torain in the locker room and said, ‘Dude, you’re starting on my fantasy team this week. And I’m hoping for a big week. I’m playing my wife,’ and he’s like, ‘Oh, cool man. Yeah, I’ll see what I can do.” Roy Helu started and totaled 141 yards. “I’m in the locker room and I don’t know who’s starting,” Cooley continued. “So, it’s kind of a mix up and I’m not exactly sure what we’re doing or who’s going in.”

The signs would point to Alfred Morris getting the start. The Washington Post believes he’s the “probable” starter according to “several people with knowledge of the situation.” Morris got the start in the 3rd week of the preseason and those are normally the week 1 starters barring injury. He impressed, rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries. Morris also did not play the following week, when Shanahan rested his starters. Both Royster and Helu did play.

Though Morris is technically listed as the 3rd string back behind Royster and Helu, it’s really anyone’s job and Morris’ performance in the 3rd preseason game would suggest he’s the “hot hand,” and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said they’d be going with that approach this season. It’s definitely not ideal to be starting any of these backs in fantasy this week as two of them won’t see much work, but if you have to start one, Morris seems like the guy. Whoever starts has a nice matchup against a New Orleans run defense that ranked 29th last season and Robert Griffin’s running ability will open things up for the starting running back on the ground, much in the way Michael Vick does for LeSean McCoy, Vince Young once did for Chris Johnson, and Tim Tebow once did for Willis McGahee. Whoever starts is a RB2/Flex, but it’s risky.

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Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Saints

Washington Redskins (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

Welcome to the NFL Robert Griffin. For your first test, you have to go to the Superdome and play Drew Brees and the Saints where they didn’t lose all of last season (9-0 SU and ATS!!!). The Saints have obviously been hurt this offseason by BountyGate and possibly, to a lesser extent, by Drew Brees’ extended contract negotiations, which caused him to miss valuable pre-Training Camp practice time and possibly hurt locker room morale. However, the BountyGate losses they suffered are not huge. Jonathan Vilma was one of the worst middle linebackers in the league last year and looked pretty washed up. Free agent additions David Hawthorne and Curtis Lofton will more than make up for his loss and will turn linebacker, a position of weakness for the Saints in 2011, into a strength. They also added Brodrick Bunkley, the league’s top run stuffing defensive tackle last season.

The bigger loss will be Will Smith at defensive end. On paper, this seems like a huge blow to an already bad Saints’ pass rush. Smith wasn’t great last season, with 7 sacks, 7 quarterback hits, and 34 quarterback pressures on 630 pass rush snaps, including playoffs, a respectable, but not great 9.2% pass rush rate, but this team was the league’s worst rated pass rushing team last season in terms of pass rush productivity (sacks + .75 hits + .75 pressures/total pass rush snaps). They may have had 33 sacks, not a terrible number, but they blitzed more than any team in the league to do even that.

However, the Saints may have a diamond in the rough waiting in the wings behind Smith. Junior Galette, a 2010 undrafted free agent, played very well as a situational pass rusher last season and will be the starter in Smith’s absence this season. On 339 pass rush snaps, he had 4 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 19 quarterback pressures, a 10.0% pass rush rate. New Saints’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is known for getting the most out of pass rushers, so he should have a positive effect on not just the career of Galette, but Cameron Jordan, the opposite starter, a 2011 1st round pick who struggled as a pass rusher as a rookie last season. Even with Smith missing 4 games with suspension, they should be a more efficient pass rushing team this season and they should be able to get some pressure against a Washington offensive line that was one of the worst in the league last year and didn’t look any better in the preseason.

The Saints’ biggest loss was Head Coach Sean Payton, but they still have Drew Brees and, for what’s it worth, the Saints 1st team offense didn’t seem to miss a beat in the preseason. If anyone can come out the other side of the offseason they just had and still compete, it’s the Saints. Drew Brees is like an assistant head coach and they’re not changing things up much so they should still be more than fine offensively. They’re an incredibly talented team, possibly even more so than last year, and would have probably been my Super Bowl pick had it not been for the off the field issues they had in the offseason. I think they’re a bit underrated right now. They’re just -7  here. For reference, the Falcons were -7 coming into New Orleans week 16 last year. They finished 10-6. The Lions, same record, were -10 in the playoffs in New Orleans.

The Redskins are also underrated right now, but I don’t think they deserve to be just +7. Robert Griffin doesn’t have a great offensive line, but he’s got plenty of offensive weapons in the receiving corps and Mike Shanahan teams have always been able to run the ball, no matter who is starting at running back. Griffin’s rushing ability will also help open things up for whichever back starts this game. Defensively, the secondary is a problem, but they have a much underrated front 7 with two great pass rushers in Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan, one of the best middle linebackers of all time in London Fletcher, a budding young linebacker in Perry Riley, and two solid defensive linemen in Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen. They won 5 games last year despite awful quarterback play. They should be a solid .500 team this year. Griffin’s presence will make a huge difference, just like Cam Newton did with the Panthers last year (Griffin’s got the superior supporting cast).

However, it may take Griffin a little bit to become acclimated to the NFL. One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. Griffin didn’t face particularly tough defenses in the Big 12, nor did he have to run a very tough offense and, while I don’t have too many concerns about his long term success, he might struggle out of the gate, especially in New Orleans against a Saints team that might be awfully pissed off after the offseason. Besides, I’m not betting against the Saints in New Orleans.

Update: Player suspensions in the bounty scandal overturned. Even if the players returning don’t have a positive effect on the game for the Saints, it’s a huge morale boost for the team. I’m adding an extra unit.

New Orleans Saints 34 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: New Orleans Saints -7 (-115) 3 units

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Redskins’ Jammal Brown has hip surgery

stevenlourie Commanders

Robert Griffin is obviously a talented rookie quarterback, but he might not reach his potential as a rookie because of how bad the Redskins’ offensive line is. Anyone who has watched their preseason games can see it. The Redskins were given more bad news when they found out that right tackle Jammal Brown would need surgery to repair a torn ligament in his hip. Brown has been dealing with hip problems dating back to 2009. They cost him all of the 2009 season and caused him to really struggle in both 2010 and 2011.

For some reason, the Redskins gave the injury prone tackle a lucrative 5 year, 27.5 million dollar deal to be their right tackle after he struggled in 2010 and it has not paid off. Last season, he allowed 9 sacks, 5 quarterback hits, and 29 quarterback pressures, while committing 4 penalties and struggling as a run blocker in essentially 11 ½ games. For his efforts, he was ProFootballFocus’ 59th ranked offensive tackle out of 73.

The timetable on Brown’s surgery is about 4-6 weeks, so he’ll start the season on the PUP, but, given his history, it’s fair to wonder if we’ll see him at all this season. Owed a non-guaranteed 3.5 million in 2013, his age 32 season, Brown might not be back after the season if he can’t get healthy. In his absence, Tyler Polumbus has been practicing as the first team right tackle. He will continue in that role once the games count, but he’s struggled. The veteran journeyman was also horrific in just 4 starts last year (1 at left guard, 3 at right tackle), allowing 1 sack, 4 quarterback hits, and 11 quarterback pressures, while failing miserably as a run blocker.

The Redskins have plenty of problems up front. Left guard Kory Lichtensteiger is still no sure thing for week 1 after tearing his ACL and MCL last season. In his absence, Maurice Hurt was horrific last season and has continued to be so this preseason. Right tackle Chris Chester wasn’t much better last year, especially as a run blocker where he graded out as ProFootballFocus’ worst at his position. Unfortunately for them, he’s not hurt. Meanwhile, center Will Montgomery is a mediocre player. The lone bright spot is talented young left tackle Trent Williams. They’ll have to address this area in the offseason. Robert Griffin is mobile, but, like any young quarterback, you still need to protect him.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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