Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-11) at Dallas Cowboys (7-7)

At first glance, this line doesn’t make any sense. In what universe are the Cowboys 6 points better than the Redskins (3 points for home field advantage)? The Cowboys’ defense not only is the worst defense in the NFL, but it’s approaching historically bad. They only thing they do right is take away the ball, as their 26 takeaways have led to a +11 turnover margin for the Cowboys, but that’s unsustainable, especially since it’s propelled by a ridiculous 70.00% fumble recovery rate.

If the Cowboys can’t take the ball away, they generally can’t stop you. They’ve allowed a league worst 350 first downs, to go with 45 touchdowns allowed (tied for 2nd worst in the NFL), and they’ve only forced 56 punts (tied for worst in the NFL) and 25 field goal attempts (pretty middle of the pack). They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an insane 78.06% rate. For comparison’s sake, if an offense were to be moving the chains at that rate, it would be 2nd in the NFL, behind only Denver. Kirk Cousins will be the 4th straight backup quarterback the Cowboys have faced, but they’ve allowed the last 3 (Matt McGloin, Josh McCown, and Matt Flynn), to complete 71 of 105 (67.6%) for 902 yards (8.59 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Why can’t Kirk Cousins shred them as well?

Washington’s defense isn’t much better. In fact, they’re the only team in the NFL that has surrendered more offensive touchdowns than the Cowboys. Their opponents move the chains at a 75.88% rate, which is better than Dallas, but hardly something to be proud of. The Cowboys have an explosive offense that can shred that defense, as the move the chains at a 74.38% rate, but the Redskins’ offense is solid as well, moving the chains at a 71.40% rate. Kirk Cousins is a downgrade from Robert Griffin, but not a significant one and they can still run the ball well with Alfred Morris.

This game definitely has the looks of a shootout, but we’re getting line value with the Redskins. The Cowboys’ rate of moving the chains differential of -3.69% ranks 24th in the NFL, while the Redskins’ differential of -4.48% comes in 26th. That suggests this line should be closer to Washington being favored by 2, instead of underdogs of 3. You can’t follow that blindly and, contrary to popular believe, Robert Griffin not being out there does hurt them (oh Kirk Cousins shredded Atlanta? congratulations), but I think there’s definitely something to the Cowboys not deserving to be favored by this much. I think the only team in the NFL they deserve to be favored by a field goal on the road against is Jacksonville.

In spite of that, the public is all over Dallas and I love to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. It makes sense here. The Redskins have a trend working in their favor as well. For one, teams on a losing streak of 6 or more are 41-24 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by a touchdown or less. Teams on long losing streaks tend to be undervalued because no one wants to bet on them, but some teams on long losing streaks are teams that quit. This isolates out those teams because, if they recently played a close game, they’re probably still fighting. On top of that, Tony Romo’s 12-25 ATS record in week 13 or later is worth noting. It’s not all on him, but this team does tend to collapse towards the end of the season, for whatever reason.

On the other hand, however, there are plenty of things working for the Cowboys. They’re in the better spot here from a pure trends situation. While they will be favorites again next week, the Redskins will be underdogs again, as they head to New York to face the Giants. Teams are 39-22 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 26-40 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs.

However, both of those trends stem from the fact that teams that will be favorites again don’t usually have a distraction game on the horizon, while teams that will be underdogs again usually do. I don’t think that applies here. The Cowboys will be playing for the division next week against Philadelphia so, while they will be favorites, it doesn’t make that won’t be a distraction. Sure, they need to win here to make sure that game is even meaningful, but it’s the tougher of the Cowboys’ two games, so they could actually be caught looking forward to it. Washington, meanwhile, probably actually cares more about this one that they do about a 5-9 Giants team that isn’t playoff bound.

Still, there is one trend that applies to this situation that makes sense. Road favorites are 45-25 ATS off of a close (between 1-3 points) home loss as favorites of more than 3 points. Teams in that situation tend to be embarrassed about such a close home upset loss and, as long as the odds makers still believe in them enough to make them road favorites, they tend to redeem themselves the following week. The Cowboys may or may not deserve to be road favorites, but it’s worth noting. Also worth noting is that the NFC East is 45-26 ATS on the road in divisional games. Those two things and the fact that I don’t totally trust Kirk Cousins scare me off of Washington, but they should still be the right side, as long as we’re getting field goal protection.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: Washington +3

 

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

Aaron Rodgers has been ruled out for this one, so the line has been posted. The Packers have opened as 7 point underdogs. You check see all of the NFL lines at https://www.bwin.com/. However, even though Aaron Rodgers is out, that doesn’t mean the Packers will have trouble moving the ball. The Cowboys have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at a ridiculous 77.61% rate and they will be without stud middle linebacker Sean Lee with an injury.

Eddie Lacy should be able to run all over them and make life easy for Matt Flynn, who was much better last week against an equally bad Atlanta defense, completing 24 of 32 for 258 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. He’s the best quarterback the Packers have had since Aaron Rodgers went down and he’s played pretty well, excluding a Detroit game where he didn’t have the playbook down and had to play on short rest on the road after his teammates played essentially a 5 quarter game the week before.

Because of the Cowboys’ terrible defense, they rank pretty far down in rate of moving the chains differential. With their defense allowing opponents to move the chains at 77.61%, their offense, as good as it is, can’t keep up, moving the chains at a 74.13% rate, a differential of -3.38% that ranks 24th in the NFL. They are only 7-6 because of a +12 turnover margin and a 70.0% rate of recovering fumbles that helps fuel it. Both of those things are unsustainable. Their opponents have 63 more first downs and 20 fewer punts on the season.

The Packers obviously aren’t as good as their 16th place rank in rate of moving the chains differential would suggest because so much of the positive was done with Aaron Rodgers under center, but they still don’t deserve to be 7 point underdogs here. According to rate of moving the chains differential, the only team that deserves to be 7 point underdogs in Dallas is Jacksonville. I don’t think the Packers are that bad.

The Cowboys also have had a lot of trouble as big home favorites over the past few years, going 5-12 ATS at home as favorites of 6 or more since new Cowboys Stadium opened in 2009. Most recently, they struggled with Oakland at home on Thanksgiving, trailing early before winning by a touchdown as 9 point favorites. If the Cowboys can’t beat the Raiders at home on a short week by more than a touchdown, they don’t have a good chance of beating the Packers at home on a normal week. In fact, their last win by more than a touchdown game way back in week 7.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Cowboys have no distractions, with only a trip to Washington on deck. The Cowboys could easily be favorites of more than a field goal in Washington next week and teams are 63-37 ATS before being road favorites of more than a field goal since 2012. The Packers may or may not be in a good spot here. Usually, non-divisional road underdogs cover before being non-divisional home favorites, going 100-65 ATS since 2008. The Packers host the Steelers next week and would definitely be home favorites if Rodgers were to return and might be home favorites either way. Still, it’s not as sure of a thing as the Cowboys’ situational trend. At the end of the day though, I’m taking the points and hoping for a close game.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay +7

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (7-5) at Chicago Bears (6-6)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, this line doesn’t make a ton of sense at first glance. So far this season, the Bears have actually played better than the Cowboys. The Bears rank 10th in DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 14th. In terms of rate of moving the chains, the Bears move them at a 77% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th in the NFL. The Cowboys, however, sit at 24th, moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents.

However, the Bears have only covered two games this season, which could explain why this line is even. They have two pushes, but they are 2-8-2 ATS on the season and one of those covers was in the game Aaron Rodgers got knocked out in the first quarter and they still struggled to beat the Packers with an unprepared Seneca Wallace under center. Last week, they lost to the Vikings, who are among the worst teams in the NFL.

They’ve been very reliant on their offense this season, but as Josh McCown has played very well in Jay Cutler’s absence, completing 65.2% of his passes for an average of 7.94 YPA, 9 touchdowns, and 1 interception. I don’t know how much I trust him though. All of this is coming from a guy who is 34 years old, has a career QB rating of 75.8, and hasn’t posted a QB rating higher than 70 since 2005. He didn’t suddenly become a starting caliber quarterback. If this is the week McCown decides to shit the bed, the Bears could be in a lot of trouble and that could happen. The Cowboys’ defense sucks, but they get Sean Lee back this week, which helps. Gun to my head, I’m taking the team that, on paper, has the better offense, and defense, and is at home, but I’m not confident in it.

Chicago Bears 24 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Chicago PK

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Last week: 17 (-2)

Record: 7-5

The Cowboys may be 7-5, but they have one of the worst defenses in the NFL and their schedule gets much tougher from here on out. Their 7 wins have come against teams with a combined 28-49-1 record and their final 4 games send them to Chicago and Washington and send Packers, likely with Aaron Rodgers at that point, and the Eagles, now with Nick Foles, to Dallas. The Cowboys won’t be able to rely on a +12 turnover margin and a 70.0% fumble recovery percentage forever.

Week 12 Studs

QB Tony Romo

RB DeMarco Murray

RT Doug Free

RE DeMarcus Ware

Week 12 Duds

RE Everette Brown

DT Nick Hayden

MLB Ernie Sims

FS Barry Church

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, non-divisional home favorites dominate on Thursdays, going 30-14 ATS since 1989. This makes sense. Playing on a short week is rough, but it’s even rougher when you have to travel on a short week. That cuts into valuable preparation time. However, if you are the better team on the road, that usually nullifies it, so home favorites have a much bigger advantage over home underdogs.

Also, if teams are divisional rivals, they are already pretty familiar with each other so the short week won’t matter as much. For that reason, non-divisional home favorites have a much bigger advantage over divisional home favorites. The Raiders are an inferior team travelling on a short week to an opponent who they see once every 4 years (because this is a non-conference game). They could get absolutely steamrolled and the Cowboys could easily cover the 9 point spread. Touchdown plus non-divisional home favorites are 12-4 ATS since 1989.

However, this spread might just be too big. I don’t know if the Cowboys deserve to be favored by this much. Their defense is awful, especially since they lost middle linebacker Sean Lee with injury. He won’t be back this week. Everyone remembers when they allowed 40 first downs to the Saints a few weeks ago, an NFL record. The Raiders don’t have a great offense, but they could still move the chains here. The Cowboys are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents. The Raiders, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 64% for their opponents. That suggests this line should really be around 4, instead of 9. That’s a lot of line value with the Raiders.

The Cowboys are also in a bad spot here. They are coming off of a close road win as underdogs, beating the Giants by 3 points last week. Teams are 27-51 ATS since 2002 as home favorites off of a road win as underdogs by 3 or fewer. They also have a much more important game in Chicago next week on Monday Night Football, which could easily have playoff implications, considering both teams are tied at a game out of the 2nd wild card spot. The Cowboys may feel they can coast through this home game and be distracted with that game up next, especially off of last week’s big win. Non-divisional home favorites are 63-86 ATS before being non-divisional road dogs since 2008.

The Cowboys generally coast as big home favorites anyway, going 5-11 ATS at home as favorites of 6 or more since the opening of the new Cowboys stadium in 2009. At the end of the day, the Raiders are probably the right side, but I can’t shake the image of them going into Dallas and getting steamrolled on a short week on the road by a superior non-divisional opponent, so I’m not confident at all.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against spread: Oakland +9

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (5-5) at New York Giants (4-6)

You could argue we’re getting line value with the Giants here. The Giants are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 72% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. They rank 27th and 26th respectively and are pretty equal, which is what this 2.5 point line suggests. However, the Cowboys are very banged up defensively, losing Sean Lee in the middle of their blowout loss in New Orleans. He won’t be back for this one, joining Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, who have essentially missed the season. They could really continue to struggle defensively.

The Giants, meanwhile, have won 4 straight. They haven’t faced a tough schedule over the past 4 games, but their turnover problems seem to be gone, as could be expected. That type of thing is very inconsistent and, after a -16 turnover margin in their first 6 games, they are +5 in turnover margin over the past 4 games. The Cowboys have a strong turnover margin at +11. It’s one of the things they do well. However, that’s not sustainable going forward. Their 66.7% fumble recovery rate isn’t either. If we assume net zero turnovers in this game, which is always smart to do, that could easily favor the Giants.

However, the Giants are in an awful spot here as divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs in Washington next week. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002. That’s impossible to ignore and essentially an auto-fade. On top of that, the Cowboys are divisional road dogs before being non-divisional home favorites, a situation teams are 43-29 ATS in since 2008. Combining that, teams are 50-85 ATS as home favorites before being road dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites, including 13-30 ATS in divisional games.

Also, the NFC East is 43-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 17-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 26-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. I’m worried about the Cowboys’ defense, which is why this isn’t a bigger play, but this is pretty much an auto-bet situation and the Giants’ defense isn’t great either. Of the last 4 quarterbacks they’ve faced, 3 of them are not currently starters (Michael Vick, Terrelle Pryor, Josh Freeman), and the other is Scott Tolzien. The Cowboys could easily win a shootout here. It’s a strong play.

Dallas Cowboys 31 New York Giants 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Dallas +2.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Last week: 14 (-6)

Record: 5-5

It’s arguable the Saints’ win over the Cowboys was the most lopsided contest in NFL history. While the Saints set the NFL record with 40 first downs, the Cowboys ran just 43 plays. The Saints’ +31 first down margin was the best in NFL history. The closest came when the Steelers had 29 more first downs than the Browns in 1999 in a 43-0 victory. They outgained the Cowboys by 431 yards, the most lopsided yardage battle since the Patriots in a 59-0 victory over the Titans in 2009. It would have been even more lopsided if the Saints hadn’t muffed a punt and missed a field goal and the Cowboys hadn’t recovered an onside kick. Because of those 2 things, the Saints had just 9 drives and scored touchdowns on 7 of them, missing a field goal on one of the others and punting on the other one of the others. It was an absurd destruction. Sean Lee is out indefinitely and the Cowboys might just be out of functional football players on defense. Anthony Spencer is done for the year, while Jay Ratliff’s year never started. DeMarcus Ware is still limited with injury, while Jason Hatcher is out indefinitely. Youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter never took the next step. They were counting on building around those guys.

Week 10 Studs

RG Mackenzy Bernadeau

Week 10 Duds

LE George Selvie

LOLB Bruce Carter

DT Jairus Wynn

MLB Sean Lee

MLB Ernie Sims

CB Micah Pellarin

FS Barry Church

SS Jeff Heath

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Last week: 12 (-2)

Record: 5-4

The Cowboys have a great offense which moves the chains at a 76% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. If there was any doubt they had a bad defense, they allowed Christian Ponder to complete 25 of 37 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception last week. Christian Ponder! The week before that, they allowed the Lions to generate 623 yards of offense and only almost won because they won the turnover battle by 4. They won’t be able to do that every week and their +10 turnover margin is going to be unsustainable going forward. They get DeMarcus Ware back this week, but that’s not going to solve all of their problems. They’re still the best team in the division, but only by default.

Week 9 Studs

QB Tony Romo

C Travis Frederick

RE Everette Brown

LOLB Bruce Carter

CB Orlando Scandrick

Week 9 Duds

WR Dez Bryant

RT Doug Free

RE Kyle Wilbur

LOLB Ernie Sims

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (5-4) at New Orleans Saints (6-2)

The Saints lost in New York last week to the Jets and it was viewed as a huge upset. Technically it was, the Saints were favored by 7 points, but I don’t know why anyone was shocked. The Saints lost in New England. The Patriots lost in New York. The Saints aren’t nearly as good of a team on the road as at home, but this week they return home. They’ve not only won 13 straight games at home under Sean Payton, but they’ve also covered 13 straight. In those 13 games, they’ve outscored opponents by an average of 20.9 points per game. That’s average and I’d say the Cowboys are pretty average. They should get back to that this week. They’re also very good off of a loss over the past few years, going 19-8 ATS off of a loss since 2008.

Back to the Cowboys being an average team, they have a great offense which moves the chains at a 76% rate, but their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate. If there was any doubt they had a bad defense, they allowed Christian Ponder to complete 25 of 37 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception last week. Christian Ponder! The week before that, they allowed the Lions to generate 623 yards of offense and only almost won because they won the turnover battle by 4. They won’t be able to do that every week and their +10 turnover margin is going to be unsustainable going forward. They get DeMarcus Ware back this week, but that’s not going to solve all of their problems. Drew Brees is going to torch them. They seem to miss Rob Ryan, who, oddly enough, is the Saints’ defensive coordinator this year.

Ryan has done a great job with the Saints’ defense. Their numbers haven’t been as good lately as they’ve faced tougher competition, but they are still holding opponents to a 71% rate of moving the chains. This was after ranking 31st in points allowed last season and allowing the most yards in NFL history last season. Their offense is obviously still explosive, moving the chains at an 80% rate, giving them a differential that is 3rd in the NFL. They deserve to be favored more than 6.5 points, before you even take into account how good they are at home. This is going to be a rough situation for the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I have a lot of confidence in the Saints. They’re also my Survivor Pick this week.

New Orleans Saints 37 Dallas Cowboys 23 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: New Orleans -6.5

Confidence: High

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]