Dolphins

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (9-5) at Buffalo Bills (7-7)

These two teams finish their regular seasons in pretty much completely opposite fashions next week. While the Bills get an easy road game in New York against the lowly Jets, the Dolphins have to go home and host the New England Patriots. Teams are 73-58 ATS since 2012 before being 4.5+ point road favorites, which the Bills should be next week, and 43-93 ATS over that time period before being 4.5+ point home underdogs, which the Dolphins should be next week. In addition, the Dolphins are in a much worse injury situation.

The absence of starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is obvious, even if backup Matt Moore is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league, but they’re also without top cornerback Byron Maxwell, who has really been playing well in recent weeks. The Bills will be without left tackle Cordy Glenn, but they are definitely in the better injury situation overall. Even before injuries are taken into account, the Bills have played slightly better than the Dolphins this season, entering 15th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 20th for the Dolphins.

When this line opened at 3.5, I was hoping it would eventually come down to 3 by gametime. Instead, the opposite happened, as the line has since jumped to 4.5. I would have put money on the Bills as 3 point home favorites, but I’m not nearly as confident in them as 4.5 point home favorites, especially given that about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. The Bills could easily outplay the Dolphins all game, but allow a late backdoor cover to give the Dolphins the cover. I’m still taking Buffalo, but it’s a low confidence pick.

Buffalo Bills 23 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -4.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-5) at New York Jets (4-9)

The Dolphins pulled off the home upset victory last week over the Cardinals, despite being without a trio of key defenders, linebackers Kiko Alonso and Jelani Jenkins and defensive end Mario Williams, all of whom return this week. It was a game they should have lost though, as the Cardinals lost 7 points on special teams, thanks to a missed field goal and two missed extra points, one of which was blocked and returned for 2 points. The Cardinals had the 21-15 edge in first downs and won the first down rate battle by +6.52%.

Teams also tend to struggle off of a home upset victory like that, going 61-80 ATS since 2012, as teams tend to be overrated and overconfident in that spot. However, we’re actually still getting good line value with the Dolphins because they lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill with injury, which dropped this line from 3.5 to 2.5, despite Miami’s upset victory. That might not seem like a big swing, but 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal so it’s a very significant point. Considering backup Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league and the Dolphins are significantly healthier around the quarterback now than they have been for most of the season, I think the line is very fair.

With that in mind, I’m actually taking the Dolphins as the Jets have to turn around and go to New England next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are just 41-66 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and the Jets could easily overlook the Dolphins with arguably the biggest game of their season on deck. Because Moore hasn’t made a start since 2011, there’s not enough here for me to be confident enough in Miami to put money on them, but they should be the right side. Even a field goal road victory covers this spread.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)

The Dolphins were shockingly blown out in Baltimore last week, the Ravens’ biggest win by point total since 2009. That almost definitely figures to be the worst game of the Dolphins’ season when all is said and done. Besides last week, they’ve played pretty well and are still a capable team that ranks 18th in first down rate differential. The Dolphins’ loss last week actually puts them in a good spot this week. That might sound counterintuitive, but teams are 92-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more (the Dolphins lost by 32 as 3.5 point underdogs).

It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. On top of that, the Dolphins have a very easy game on deck as they head to New York to take on the Jets next week, a game in which they will almost definitely be road favorites. Home underdogs like the Dolphins are here (by 2 points) are 79-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites, as teams tend to be very focused in a tough home game before an easy road game.

The Dolphins could easily bounce back with a strong effort this week, but all that being said I’m picking the Cardinals as long as this line is under a field goal. The Cardinals are at the top of my underrated teams list. Despite their 5-6-1 record, they’ve won the first down rate battle in 10 of 12 games and they could easily be 9-3 right now, as they could have beaten New England, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Minnesota if one or two fluky things had gone their way (missed field goal against New England, punt return against Rams, blocked punt against Seattle, pick six against Minnesota).

The Cardinals actually rank 1st in first down rate differential. They ranked 1st in that metric last year as well. Carson Palmer is having a down year and they aren’t the same on either side of the ball without injured left tackle Jared Veldheer and injured defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, but they still have a strong defense and running game and are one of the better teams in the league in a year where there are very few top level teams. Even if the Dolphins bring a strong effort, the Cardinals could win by a field goal on the road, especially with the Dolphins missing center Mike Pouncey, linebackers Kiko Alonso and Jelani Jenkins, and defensive end Mario Williams with injury.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (7-4) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5)

This line at 3.5 in favor of the hometown Baltimore Ravens suggests the Ravens are a slightly better team than the Dolphins. I think it’s the opposite. Both teams come into this game relatively healthy compared to most of the season, with the Dolphins getting left tackle Branden Albert and left guard Laremy Tunsil back this week, while the Ravens get cornerback Jimmy Smith back. However, the Dolphins rank 12th on the season in first down rate differential, while the Ravens rank 19th in that metric. This line should be around 2.5, which might not seem like a big difference from 3.5, but it is, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. The Ravens are certainly no strangers to field goal games, as 4 of their 11 wins in the past 2 seasons have come by exactly a field goal. That makes sense, as the Ravens have a great defense, but a struggling offense. That’s not exactly a recipe for big blowout wins. The Dolphins are a quality opponent, so, if the Ravens win, it’ll likely be by a field goal or less.

The Dolphins are also in a much better spot than the Ravens, as they host the skidding Cardinals next week, while the Ravens have to turn around and go to New England, where the early line has them as 10 point underdogs. The Dolphins will be favored next week at home for the Cardinals and underdogs are 94-61 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs. On top of that, teams are 41-63 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs, as upcoming big games like that tend to be a distraction for a team. As favorites, teams are 37-62 ATS since 2002 before being double digit underdogs. Combining the two, underdogs are 48-20 ATS since 1989 before being favorites when their opponents will next be double digit underdogs. I like the Dolphins a lot this week.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (1-9) at Miami Dolphins (6-4)

The Browns haven’t won a game this season, but there’s an argument to be made that the 1-9 49ers are the worst team in the league this season. They don’t rank dead last in first down rate differential, but that’s only because of a 28-0 blowout win week 1 over the Rams. The Rams have not been good this year (one of two teams with a worse first down rate differential than the 49ers), but that win looks like a complete fluke given what’s happened since. Since that week 1 win, the 49ers have lost 9 straight games by an average of 15.22 points per game with all but 1 loss coming by double digits.

The Dolphins are a solid team that has a 6-4 record and that ranks 12th in first down rate differential, so they should be able to hand the 49ers another big loss. However, it’s tough to be confident in the Dolphins when they’re going to be missing at least their top-2 and maybe their top-3 offensive linemen. Center Mike Pouncey and left tackle Branden Albert remain out, while Laremy Tunsil is a gametime decision at best. Tunsil has played well this season at left guard and has also played left tackle well when Albert’s been injured, so that would be a huge loss for them if he can’t go. The Dolphins are the pick in pick ‘em pools, but I wouldn’t bet anything real on them.

Miami Dolphins 24 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against the spread: Miami -7

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Los Angeles Rams (4-5)

Despite a few wins, the Rams are one of the worst teams in the league. Their 4 wins have come by a combined 18 points, with none coming by more than 6 points, while their 5 losses have come by 52 points, giving them a -34 point differential that ranks just 27th in the NFL. In terms of first down rate differential, they’re even worse, entering this game 30th in the NFL in that metric. The Dolphins are a much better team, entering this game 17th in that metric, but the Rams luck out because the Dolphins are very banged up right now. They will be without starting outside linebacker Jelani Jenkins, starting left tackle Branden Albert, and starting center Mike Pouncey this week, while starting cornerback Xavien Howard remains out with injury. As long as this line is still less than 3, the Dolphins are the pick, but I can’t be confident in them as banged up as they are.

Miami Dolphins 16 Los Angeles Rams 13

Pick against the spread: Miami -2

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (4-4) at San Diego Chargers (4-5)

The Chargers have been one of the most banged up teams in the league in each of the last two seasons. This season, the Chargers have been missing wide receiver Steve Johnson, running back Danny Woodhead, wide receiver Keenan Allen, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and cornerback Jason Verrett for most, if not all of the season thus far. Joining them this week will be starting middle linebackers Denzel Perryman and Jatavis Brown and starting wide receiver Travis Benjamin.

The Chargers are going into a bye, which is good news from an injury standpoint, as it gives them time to get their players back, but it’s also bad news because it puts them in a bad spot this week. Home favorites of 1 to 5.5 points are just 30-58 ATS before a regular season bye since 2002, as teams tend to get caught looking forward to their week off in this spot. The Chargers are 4.5 point favorites, so they fall right in the range. That’s also too many points, given the Chargers’ injury situation and the fact that the Dolphins are a quality opponent. The Dolphins are 12th in first down rate differential, just a few spots behind the Chargers, who enter this game in 8th. Even banged up and in a bad spot, the Chargers will probably win this game, but 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so the Dolphins are the right pick if we’re getting 4.5 with them. There’s not enough for me to put money on them though.

San Diego Chargers 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +4.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

The Jets are in a good spot here as 3.5 point underdogs in Miami, as the Dolphins have to turn around and play a tougher game on the west coast in San Diego next week, while the Jets host the lowly Rams. Underdogs are 89-60 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs and that’s almost certainly the case here. At the same time, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Jets at 3.5, considering the Dolphins are the significantly better team between these two.

These two teams have pretty similar records, but the Jets’ two wins in the last two weeks have both come against weak opponents (Cleveland and a banged up Baltimore team) and neither victory was convincing. On the season, they rank 31st in first down percentage differential. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are coming off of back-to-back big home wins against quality opponents (Buffalo and Pittsburgh) and rank 10th in first down percentage differential. It’s hard to be confident in the Jets even in a great spot, but a field goal game is still a strong possibility considering 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I am still taking the Jets for a low confidence pick.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (4-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-4)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements. Ordinarily, they’re the result of overreaction to a single week and they create line value in either direction. The line did only move a point from 2 on the early line last week to 3 this week, but, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, that’s a significant movement. In this case, the Bills’ 45-16 trouncing of the lowly 49ers is likely the reason behind the line movement, but the Dolphins had arguably just as impressive, if not more impressive of a week, winning 30-15 at home against a good Steeler team.

The Bills are a better team than the Dolphins, coming into this game in 9th in first down percentage differential, while the Dolphins come in 21st, but I still think we’re getting good value with the Dolphins as field goal home underdogs. Homefield is usually about 3 points, so that suggests the Dolphins would be around 8 or 9 point underdogs in Buffalo, which is what San Francisco was last week. The Dolphins are significantly better than the 49ers. They’re without top safety Reshad Jones with a season ending injury, a huge loss for this secondary, but Buffalo is expected to be without running back LeSean McCoy and remain without top defensive lineman Marcell Dareus. In addition, Miami is going into only their 2nd game of the season with a fully healthy offensive line and it seemed to make a big difference last week.

The Bills are also in an obvious look-ahead situation with a huge divisional game against the Patriots next week. That game could potentially be for the division and would give the Bills their first season sweep of the Patriots in the Tom Brady era. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Bills seem less focused and play less than their best this week, especially given how much Rex Ryan is obsessed with trying to beating Bill Belichick. The early line has the Bills as 6 point home underdogs and road favorites are understandably just 16-30 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs. In addition, teams are just 37-85 ATS since 2012 before a home game in which they’ll be underdogs of at least 4.5 points. The only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week is because the Dolphins are coming off of a home upset victory and teams are 53-76 ATS in that spot since 2012, but I’m still very confident in the Dolphins getting a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: High

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-4)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against significant week-to-week line movements, as they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. This game has one, as the Steelers were 4.5 point road favorites on the early line last week, but are now favored by 8. It makes some sense why the line would move significantly, as the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans last week, while the Steelers got their second straight big victory, beating the Jets 31-13. However, the line movement is still way too much and we’re getting a lot of line value with the Dolphins at 8 as a result. Despite that, the public is still all over the Steelers. I also love going against the public when it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run.

The Steelers’ last two wins came by large margins, but both were at home. Now they’re on the road, where it’s much tougher to come away with big wins. The Steelers especially have had trouble on the road against seemingly inferior opponents in the Mike Tomlin era, as they are just 9-21 ATS as non-divisional road favorites since Tomlin arrived in 2007. In their last road game, they lost 34-3 in Philadelphia as 4 point road favorites. The Dolphins are not nearly as good as the Eagles, but they’re still good enough to keep it close against a Pittsburgh team that could overlook them, especially with a huge game against the Patriots next week. That game could easily be a major distraction.

The Steelers also come into this game pretty banged up, more banged up than most realize. They’ll be without defensive end Cameron Heyward, arguably their best defensive player, for the first time this season, while right tackle Marcus Gilbert and middle linebacker Ryan Shazier remain out with injuries. Also out is wide receiver Markus Wheaton, while fellow wide receiver is questionable with a hand laceration and could be limited even if he goes. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are getting healthier, as their top-3 offensive lineman (Branden Albert, Laremy Tunsil, and Mike Pouncey) are all healthy at the same time for the first time all year. Having their entire offensive line back should help this offense immensely and gives them a good chance to have a bounce back offensive performance, especially with Pittsburgh missing Heyward. I like the Dolphins a lot this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Miami +8

Confidence: High

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