Dolphins

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Lions, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2)

The Dolphins thrust themselves into the contender discussion last week, blowing out a solid San Diego team by the final score of 37-0. They move the chains at a 74.44% rate, as opposed to 68.83% for their opponents, a differential of 5.60% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That’s better than the Lions, who move the chains at a 71.13% rate, as opposed to 68.51% for their opponents, a differential of 2.62% that ranks 10th in the NFL. And despite that, this line says these two teams are even at 3 points, which isn’t true.

On top of that, the Dolphins are in a bunch better spot this week. While the Lions have to go to 7-1 Arizona next week, the Dolphins host the Bills. Teams are 122-91 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Conversely, teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The only reason this isn’t a high confidence or pick of the week type pick is because Detroit gets Calvin Johnson back this week.

Miami Dolphins 23 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Medium

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San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 9 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (5-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-3)

The Chargers were blown out in Denver last week, but there are a few reasons why I see them bouncing back this week. The most obvious is that this is a much easier game than last week. As solid as Miami has been this season, they definitely aren’t Denver. The Dolphins move the chains at a 73.13% rate, as opposed to 70.62% for their opponents, a differential of 2.51%, 10th in the NFL. The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 7th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 77.24% rate, as opposed to 74.35% for their opponents, a differential of 2.89%. This line at Miami -1.5 is about right, before you take into account situational trends.

The situational trends all favor San Diego. The second reason why they’ll bounce back this week is that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  For one, they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 108-70 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 92-48 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 181-184 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 254-364 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game.

The third reason is that teams tend to cover the spread when coming off of a Thursday Night blowout loss, as teams are 24-14 ATS as underdogs off of a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more. This makes sense as they’ve had extra time to hear about how bad they are and to regroup. They also have far less of a distraction with their upcoming game, as they go into their bye and then play the lowly the Raiders, while the Dolphins head to Detroit next week.

Teams are 72-104 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs. Going off of that, teams are 58-97 ATS since 2010 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. The Chargers have a bye in between, which could throw that trend off. There isn’t as much data on teams that have byes in between the game they are favorites and underdogs, but teams are 38-26 ATS in that spot since 1989 and the logic still holds. The Chargers should be the right side, but the trend uncertainty with the Chargers going into a bye keeps this from being a high confidence pick.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: San Diego +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6)

I’m completely split on this one. On one hand, the Jaguars are in a bad spot, having to go to Cincinnati next week where they will almost certainly be double digit underdogs (the early line is 11). Teams are 40-81 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation.

The Jaguars rank just 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 65.70% rate, as opposed to 73.13% for their opponents, a differential of -7.43%. They have covered just 8 of their last 24 games, dating back to week 17 of 2012. Over those 24 games, they lost 15 of them by double digits and could easily make it 16 this week against a solid Miami team. The Dolphins are moving the chains at a 73.63% rate, as opposed to 71.27% for their opponents, a differential of 2.36% that ranks 9th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around a touchdown, which gives us a little bit of line value with Miami -6.

On the other hand, the Jaguars have been playing much better football of late. Blake Bortles has proven to be an upgrade over Chad Henne at quarterback (which isn’t hard) and head coach Gus Bradley, the ex-Seahawks defensive coordinator, has this defense playing a lot better recently. They haven’t lost by double digits in any of their last 3 games (which is an accomplishment for this franchise) and they dominated a decent Browns team last week.

Over the past 4 games, since benching Henne, they are moving the chains at a 69.60% rate, as opposed to 65.74% for their opponents, a differential of 3.86%. That’s much better than their first 3 games, when they moved the chains at a 59.76% rate, as opposed to 79.83% for their opponents, a differential of -20.08%. On top of that, the Dolphins have a much tougher game next week against the Chargers back in Miami, where they could easily be home underdogs. Non-divisional road favorites are 22-40 since 1989 before being non-divisional home underdogs, as that upcoming game tends to be a major distraction. Even if that game has an even line (as the early line currently is) or the Dolphins are favored by 1-2 points, the logic still stands. I’m taking the Dolphins, but I’m not confident at all.

Miami Dolphins 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Miami -6

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bears, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (2-3) at Chicago Bears (3-3)

All the trends say the Dolphins are the right side here. While the Bears have to go to New England next week, one of the toughest places in the NFL to win, the Dolphins go to Jacksonville, arguably the easiest place in the NFL to win. Teams usually cover before being significant road favorites, as there are no distractions on the horizon. Non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road favorites are 38-26 ATS since 1989. On top of that, teams are 75-50 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 3 or more and 47-29 ATS before being road favorites of 4 or more (the Dolphins are currently projected to be 4 point favorites in Jacksonville). If you combine the two, teams are 34-22 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being road favorites of 4 or more.

On the opposite end of the coin, the Bears are going to be significant road underdogs in New England next week. Teams are 70-102 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, including 21-47 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more. Going off of that, teams are 94-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 35-12 ATS since 2002 as road underdogs before being road favorites when their opponents will next be road underdogs. Everything about this situation screams that the Dolphins are the right side.

I just wish we were getting more line value with the Dolphins. This line is only 3.5. While it’s on the right side of the field goal, I wish this line was more likely 4.5 or 5, though I do like to see that the public is on Chicago and the line isn’t climbing. In fact, it’s dropped down to 3 at some places, suggesting the sharps are on the Dolphins. Siding with the sharp bettors and fading the public bettors is usually a recipe for success.

However, on paper these teams don’t really seem even, which is what this line suggests. The Bears are an average team, ranking 17th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.02% rate, as opposed to 71.52% for their opponents, a differential of 0.50%. The Bears, meanwhile, move the chains at a 77.78% rate, as opposed to 71.68% for their opponents, a differential of 6.10% that ranks 5th in the NFL. Their offensive success doesn’t really surprise me, though they’ve done a very good job of preserving through injuries offensively that they didn’t have last season.

However, their defense has been a big surprise as I saw this as one of the least talented defensive units in the league coming into the season. Despite losing Henry Melton this off-season and once again being without Lance Briggs and Charles Tillman thanks to injuries, they’ve played well on that side of the ball, fixing a lot of their issues from a season ago. They could still struggle the rest of the way because I think their play is exceeding their talent level right now, which gives me more confidence in the Dolphins, who seem like the right side as long as the line exceeds a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 27 Chicago Bears 24 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2)

The Packers had a dominant win on Thursday Night Football last week, winning 42-10. However, that hurts them this week. The Packers will have had 10 days of basking in their own glory after last week’s blowout victory over the Buccaneers. Road favorites are 9-19 ATS after a Thursday Night win of 10 or more since 1989. Usually wins like that are usually accompanied by big overreaction line movements so it makes sense. The line hasn’t shifted much (going from 3 to 3.5), but it’s still moved off of the key number of 3 and the Packers could still be overconfident here.

We’re getting line value with the Dolphins as well. The Packers were 9 point favorites at home for the Vikings and Christian Ponder last week. This line suggests that the Packers would be 9.5 point favorites at home for the Dolphins, even though the Dolphins are better than the Vikings with Christian Ponder. Sure the Packers blew out the Vikings, but that was in Lambeau, where they’re a lot better. Since 2009, the Packers are 36-9 at home, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.98 points per game. On the other hand, they are 27-21 on the road, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.94 points per game, a difference of about 8 points per game. It’s not a strong lean, but as long as the line is higher than a field goal, the Dolphins should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 27 Miami Dolphins 24

Pick against spread: Miami +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Oakland Raiders in London: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Raiders, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-3) in London

The Dolphins should cover this spread fairly easily as mere 3.5 point favorites in a neutral site game against the pathetic Raiders. This line was at 7 last week before the Dolphins got blown out at home by the Chiefs. Obviously the line should have moved a little bit as a result, but the Chiefs were in a good spot as road underdogs after a road loss and the Dolphins’ biggest issue last week was their game plan as they aired it out 43 times to 20 runs, even though they averaged 7.1 yards per carry on the ground and 4.8 yards per attempt in the air. They should commit themselves to the run this week and run all over a hapless Raider team, who they are significantly more than 3.5 points better than.

The key word is should though and I’m not that confident here. I want to fade the massive line movement, but I don’t have a ton of trust in Joe Philbin and the Dolphins in terms of their ability to develop a game plan. I also never know what to do with these stupid London games, as it’s tough to know if both teams will give it 100%. You’d think the Raiders would give less than 100% as a 0-3 team who has to give away a home game for this game, coming off of a close loss to the Patriots in New England, but there are no guarantees.

Miami Dolphins 24 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: Low

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

One of my favorites trends involves road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 101-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 86-45 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 168-177 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.20 points per game, as opposed to 236-339 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.26 points per game.

People are really down on the Chiefs because they’re 0-2 and lost last week in Denver, but they put up a decent fight. 0-2 teams the year after making the playoffs tend to cover the spread. I like their chances this week in Miami as 4 point underdogs. The only reason the Chiefs aren’t a bigger play is because they have to play the Patriots in Kansas City next week and the Dolphins only have to deal with the Raiders in London next week. Teams are 43-71 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012. I still like the Chiefs, but not a ton.

Miami Dolphins 20 Kansas City Chiefs 19

Pick against spread: Kansas City +4

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

I had these two teams as essentially even before the season started and I really have much of a reason to change that drastically right now. The Dolphins got an impressive home victory over the Patriots, but the Bills were able to win on the road in Chicago. The Bears aren’t a great team or anything, but it’s always impressive when a team wins on the road. However, this line suggests the Dolphins are a significantly better team as they are road favorites of about a month.

The Bills are now returning home, where they were a lot better last season than on the road. They went 6-1 ATS at home last season, excluding a game in Toronto that was essentially a neutral site game. They beat Carolina, Baltimore, Miami, and blew out the Jets. They took the Bengals to overtime, came within 2 points of knocking off the Patriots and their only non-cover in Buffalo was a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs in which they started a 3rd string quarterback and allowed 2 defensive touchdowns. They knocked off the Dolphins twice last season, including a 19-0 win week 16 in Buffalo and I like their chances to do so again, especially against a Dolphins team that could be riding a little too high after last week (7-13 ATS after playing the Patriots since 2001).

Buffalo Bills 16 Miami Dolphins 13 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Buffalo +1

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

This is another game where I’m kicking myself for not betting it earlier as the Patriots used to be favorites of a mere 1.5 points. I would have been fairly confident in them -1.5. Tom Brady is 42-18 ATS as an underdog or a favorite of fewer than 3 points in his career. The Patriots have also won 10 of their last 11 season openers. The Patriots were underdogs of a point in Miami last season and only lost by 4, with a shot to win it at the end. It didn’t make sense that they would be favorites of just 1.5 points here in Miami in 2014, with a much improved team that includes Vince Wilfork, Rob Gronkowski, Sebastian Vollmer, and Jerod Mayo coming back from injury, as well as Darrelle Revis coming over from Tampa Bay.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, aren’t really that improved. Branden Albert is a nice addition, but Mike Pouncey won’t play thanks to injury and they lost 3 defensive starters Nolan Carroll, Chris Clemons, and Paul Soliai and downgraded at all 3 spots. Now the Patriots are favored by 4.5, meaning this line jumped the key numbers of 3 and 4. I still like the Patriots’ chances of winning, but I can’t be confident in them against the spread without field goal protection.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -4.5

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Dolphins, Uncategorized

QB Ryan Tannehill (Miami)

Ryan Tannehill showed improvement from his rookie year, when he completed 58.3% of his passes for an average of 6.81 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, a QB rating of 76.1. In 2013, he completed 60.4% of his passes for an average of 6.66 YPA, 24 touchdowns and 17 interceptions, a QB rating of 81.7. He also improved on the ground as the mobile Tannehill rushed for 238 yards and a touchdown on 40 carries, an average of 5.95 YPA, after rushing for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns on 49 carries as a rookie, an average of 4.31 YPA. He’s not a fantasy football factor yet though. He’s a mid-level QB2.

3800 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions, 380 rushing yards, 3 rushing touchdowns (258 pts standard)

RB Lamar Miller (Miami)

Lamar Miller is currently the front runner to be the starter for the 2nd straight season. Miller, a 2012 4th round pick, rushed for 709 yards and 2 touchdowns on 177 carries last season, an average of 4.01 yards per carry. In 2 seasons in the league, Miller has averaged 4.21 yards per carry, showing why he fell to the 4th round in the first place. I don’t expect him to be much better this season. The Dolphins brought in Knowshon Moreno this off-season to compete with him for the starting job, but injuries prevented him from doing that.

210 carries for 880 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 30 catches for 220 yards (146 pts standard)

RB Knowshon Moreno (Miami)

Knowshon Moreno had over 1500 yards from scrimmage last season (1038 rushing and 548 receiving), but was still available about 3 weeks into free agency. There were reasons for that. As much production as Moreno had last year, much of it was the product of Peyton Manning. Moreno rarely faced stacked boxes and, much more often than not, was running against boxes of 6 or fewer defenders. In spite of that, he actually just rushed for 4.31 yards per carry, which isn’t a spectacular average. He’s a talented pass catcher and pass protector, but he’s an average runner at best. He also missed 20 games from 2010-2012 and had just 426 touches over those 3 seasons. Now he’s dealing with a bad knee that caused him to miss most of the off-season. He’ll be Miller’s backup and a passing down specialist.

100 carries for 420 yards, 3 total touchdowns, 20 catches for 180 yards (78 pts standard)

WR Mike Wallace (Miami)

Wallace didn’t really pan out in his first year in Miami. Wallace caught a career high 73 passes, but only for 930 yards. His 5 touchdowns were the smallest total of his 5-year career, as was his 12.7 yards per catch. This kind of disappointment shouldn’t be surprising from him. It’s always concerned me when a guy is obviously just chasing money. Wallace held out long into training camp going in 2012, rather than playing out the final year of his rookie deal and, as a result, he had a poor year by his standards in 2012, with 64 catches for 836 yards and 8 touchdowns despite a career high in targets. It was obvious when he went into that holdout that a down year like that was a possibility, but he didn’t seem to care. He was part of the reason why the Steelers missed the playoffs.

And then he chased the money and went to Miami, a team with a young quarterback that had made the playoffs just once in the previous 11 seasons. It was very possible he’d just coast once he had the money and it seems like he did. He’s a one trick pony anyway. He’s got great speed, but he’s still not a good route runner and the NFL has caught on to him over the past few seasons. It’s very possible the 1257 yards he had in his breakout 2010 season will be his career best when his career is all said and done. Some are saying that a new offensive coordinator, with Bill Lazor taking over from Mike Sherman, will help Wallace, but I’m skeptical.

60 catches for 950 yards and 7 touchdowns (137 pts standard)

WR Brian Hartline (Miami)

With Wallace disappointing last year, Brian Hartline led the Dolphins in receiving yards for the 2nd straight season. He’s put up pretty identical 74/1083/1 and 76/1016/4 seasons over the past 2 seasons, since the 2009 4th round pick broke out in 2012. He’s not an explosive athlete, a touchdown threat, or a deep threat, but he knows how to get open and Tannehill is obviously comfortable throwing to him. There’s a good chance he leads them in receiving for the 3rd straight season. He’s averaged 1.84 yards per route run over the past 2 seasons.

72 catches for 990 yards and 5 touchdowns (129 pts standard)

TE Charles Clay (Miami)

Clay broke out last season in his 3rd year in the league. Clay caught 69 passes for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns on 458 routes run, an average of 1.62 yards per route run. Clay is still a one year wonder, after playing a combined 744 snaps in his first 2 years in the league and catching a combined 34 passes, but he could have another solid season as a pass catcher this season.

62 catches for 720 yards and 5 touchdowns (102 pts standard)

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