Dolphins

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (7-8) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)

One powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Jets have room to play with here because they are 7 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

These two teams might not seem to be even teams because the Dolphins are favored by a whole touchdown and because the Jets were just favored by one point in New York a few weeks ago and got blown out, but they are pretty even, much more than this line would suggest. We’re getting line value with the Jets. The Dolphins are not as good as their 8-7 record would suggest. The complete goose egg they laid in Buffalo last week is just evidence of that.

They rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential, largely because of an incompetent offense, which moves the chains at a 66.74% rate, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their porous offensive line is a big part of the reason why and the Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL because of the trio of Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, and Muhammad Wilkerson, all of whom are playing like Pro-Bowlers. They have the potential to take over this game.

The Dolphins defense is much better than their offense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 70.46% rate, but that’s still a differential of -3.72%, which, again, ranks 25th in the NFL. The Jets are 27th. Their offense obviously struggles, moving the chains at a 64.90% rate, but their defense is much better as they allow their opponents to move the chains at a 69.75% rate, a differential of -4.86%. That suggests this line should be around 4, instead of 7. Given that, the Jets definitely seem like the right side.

However, the Jets do tend to struggle on the road and off of a win. The Jets have been very bad off of a win over the past 2 seasons, going 3-9 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2012 season. They haven’t handled success well. On top of that, Geno Smith has been horrible on the road this season. He hasn’t been good anywhere. However, his road numbers are some of the worst you’ll ever see for a guy who kept his starting job all season.

He’s completed 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.55 yards per attempt, 5 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions. Even that’s skewed by a 3 touchdown, no interception performance in Atlanta. In his other 5 road games, he has 2 touchdown, and 13 interceptions. As a result, the Jets have lost those 5 games by an average of 19.5 points per game, while the win in Atlanta came by just 2. I’m still taking the points, especially since the Dolphins have just 2 wins by more than a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: NY Jets +7

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (8-6) at Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Believe or not, the Bills have actually been very good at home. It doesn’t show in their home record (3-4), but they are 5-2 ATS at home, 5-1 ATS if you ignore what was essentially a neutral site game in Toronto and 5-1 ATS at home dogs. Given that they’ve been underdogs in all 6 of their games in Buffalo, their 3-3 record there seems a lot better. They’ve had a very tough schedule, facing the Patriots, Panthers, Chiefs, Bengals, four likely playoff teams who currently all have 9-5 or better records, the Ravens, another possible playoff team who is currently 8-6, and the Jets. The Jets were the easiest team they’ve faced at home and the Bills won that game by 20.

Of those 3 losses, only one came by more than a field goal and that was the game in which Jeff Tuel started against Kansas City, a 10 point loss in which the Chiefs scored 14 points off of return touchdowns. Why is everyone so sure the Dolphins will beat them by more than a field goal? The public is all over Miami as 3 point favorites and I love fading heavy public leans whenever it makes sense, as the odds makers always make money in the long run. It certainly makes sense here.

EJ Manuel is out for this one, but I don’t think Thad Lewis is a serious downgrade or anything. In fact, the game in which the Bills took the Bengals to overtime in Buffalo was started by Thad Lewis. He also beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this season. EJ Manuel has more long-term upside, but for this season, I think Thad Lewis is at least a comparable quarterback, if not a better quarterback. EJ Manuel actually has a lower QB rating on the season than Lewis, completing 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, a QB rating of 77.7. Thad Lewis, meanwhile, is completing 60.2% of his passes for an average of 6.33 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, a QB rating of 80.2.

Besides, it’s not like offense is the reason why Buffalo has had any success this season. They move the chains at a 66.21% rate, which is one of the worst in the NFL. Their defense, however, has been incredible, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 68.34% rate. Their defensive line has especially been good (league leading 49 sacks), which is going to be trouble for the Dolphins, whose weakness is their offensive line (league leading 51 sacks allowed). Ryan Tannehill was under pressure on 16 of 39 dropbacks in their last matchup (41.0%) and Tannehill completed passes on just 5 of those dropbacks, a big part of the reason why the Bills were able to prevail.

That rate of moving the chains differential of -2.13% is 21st in the NFL. The Dolphins are actually 22nd, moving the chains at a 68.35% rate, as opposed to 70.95% for their opponents, a differential of -2.60%. That actually suggests the Bills should be favored by 3.5 points. Now, you can’t just follow that blindly. I don’t think the Bills and Dolphins are exactly comparable teams nor do I think the Bills are a better team than the Dolphins. The Dolphins are playing better football of late. However, it’s not something you can ignore. The Bills are better than their record and the Dolphins are better than their record. DVOA backs this up as the Dolphins rank 18th, while the Bills rank 23rd. The Dolphins don’t deserve to be 3 point favorites here, even before you take into account the Bills’ home dominance.

There are a couple of reasons why the Bills aren’t a bigger play. For one, the Bills are in a bad spot as they have to face the Patriots next week in New England, which could be a distraction for them. Teams are 26-40 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs. The Dolphins, meanwhile, don’t really have an upcoming distraction as they face the Jets next week in Miami. Teams are 39-22 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Still, there’s enough here for me to be fairly confident in the Bills, as long as we’re getting field goal protection.

Buffalo Bills 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +130

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (10-3) at Miami Dolphins (7-6)

The Patriots lost Rob Gronkowski. How can they function? Well, while it’s very true that Gronk was the 2nd most important player on the team after Tom Brady and that this significantly hurts their Super Bowl chances, the Patriots have proven they can still move the ball well even without Gronkowski in the lineup at times. Remember, they beat the Saints without him earlier this season and last week Tom Brady led two late touchdown drives without Gronk and completed 32 of 52 for 418 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception in the win over Cleveland.

Yes, they needed a miracle to comeback in that game, but they still won despite losing the turnover battle by 2, which only happens about 17.7% of the time. I don’t expect them to make a habit of losing the turnover battle, as that type of thing is very inconsistent and the Patriots are historically one of the best at consistently winning the turnover battle over the past decade.

The Patriots easily won the first down battle last week 30 to 24 and punted just 5 times, as opposed 6 for Cleveland. Having Shane Vereen, who they didn’t have the first time Gronk was out, is going to be very important as he’s turned into their version of Darren Sproles. He caught 12 passes for 153 yards in the win over Cleveland and will be a matchup nightmare for the Dolphins and their terrible coverage linebackers (neither Dannell Ellerbe nor Philip Wheeler have panned out as free agent signings).

The Patriots can definitely still turn it on from time to time even without Rob Gronkowski. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have them so prepared for key situations. I think this is a key situation for the Patriots. Tom Brady has had to hear about how their season is over without Rob Gronkowski all week so he could easily go into pissed off mode, which he does like no one else, except for maybe Peyton Manning (Oh, I’m bad in the cold? Okay. Thanks. Bye). After two less than stellar performances by this team, I expect a very strong effort and for them to not appear to miss Gronk, at least for this week.

The Patriots have been a covering machine with Tom Brady under center when they are not favored by 3 or more points. With Brady under center, they are 41-16 ATS in his career as underdogs or favorites of 2.5 or fewer, as they are here. The Patriots haven’t been winning pretty this season, but they’ve been winning, just like they have throughout Tom Brady’s career. It might not be pretty here. Miami is a decent football team, but any time I can get Tom Brady in a situation where he essentially just needs to win, it’s pretty much an auto bet. The fact that we might be getting pissed off Tom Brady this week is just a cherry on top.

New England Patriots 27 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: New England -1

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Steelers, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-6) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-7)

This line suggests that those two teams are even, with Pittsburgh favored by 3 at home, because 3 is the standard adjustment for home field advantage. I don’t think that’s true. The Steelers started the year 0-4 because of serious turnover battle problems (-9), but that kind of thing usually evens out and the Steelers are +5 in turnovers since then. As a result, they are 5-3 since their bye and they played good football in two of their losses and easily could have won (@ Oakland, @ Baltimore).

They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 13th in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, as they’ve had major offensive line problems and their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That ranks 21st in the NFL. That suggests this line should be somewhere around 5.5 instead.

The Dolphins are also in a bad spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home underdogs, as they head home to face the Patriots next week. Teams are 52-78 ATS in that spot. They’ll probably be too distracted to compete on the road against a superior football team. Going off of that, teams are 60-101 ATS before being home underdogs of 3.5 or more since 2010. Also, fun fact, Dolphins are 17-27 ATS since 1989 before playing the Patriots. It’s not, on its own, a reason to take the Steelers, but it’s worth noting. The Steelers are also rested off of a Thursday night game. I like the Steelers chances here as long as they are only laying a field goal.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3

Confidence: Medium

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (-2)

Record: 5-6

Of all of the 5-6 teams in the AFC, I think the Dolphins are the worst and the least likely to make it to the playoffs. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, thanks to large part to a dysfunctional (in more ways than one) offensive line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That’s a differential that is 30th in the NFL. They could definitely lose in New York to the Jets this week, especially if the Jets Pro-Bowl defensive line (Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, and Damon Harrison should all get Pro-Bowl consideration) completely overwhelms the Dolphins’ weak offense.

Week 12 Studs

LT Bryant McKinnie

Week 12 Duds

MLB Dannell Ellerbe

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (5-6) at New York Jets (5-6)

The Jets snapped their streak of alternating wins and losses by losing in Baltimore last week and now sit at 5-6. Geno Smith seems to have hit a rookie wall, completing 25 of 64 (39.1%) for 345 yards (5.39 YPA), no touchdowns, and 5 interceptions over the past 3 weeks. So they suck and should be avoided at all costs right? Well that seems to be what the public thinks as they want no part of the Jets as favorites, making the Dolphins a public underdog.

Well, there’s some truth to that. Geno Smith is easily playing like a bottom-3 quarterback right now and the Jets actually have the 2nd worst point differential in the NFL at -101, only better than Jacksonville. They are moving the chains at a mere 66% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, which ranks 27th in the NFL. However, the Dolphins might actually be worse. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, thanks to large part to a dysfunctional (in more ways than one) offensive line. Defensively, they are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations.

That’s 30th in the NFL and suggests that the Jets should actually be favored by more than two points. They still have a phenomenal defensive line with 3 players who are all deserving of Pro-Bowl consideration (Damon Harrison, Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson). They can overwhelm the weakness of the Dolphins, their offensive line, and force the Dolphins’ offense down to the level of the Jets’ offense.

I also like how the Jets have dealt with adversity and the public and the media thinking they’re terrible over the past 2 years. This could be a real statement game for them as they seek to stay alive in the playoff race. The Jets have also been better at home this season, going 4-1 including wins over New Orleans and New England, as opposed to 1-4 on the road, where they’ve dropped their last two. Geno Smith’s quarterback rating is close to 20 points higher at home than on the road, but the Jets could win this game even if he doesn’t play well. Teams are more than just quarterbacks, especially this one. Smith completed just 8 passes in their win over the Saints. I’m taking the Jets and fading the public underdog as long as this line is 3 or lower, but I’m not that confident.

New York Jets 13 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (7-3) at Miami Dolphins (5-5)

The Panthers have established themselves as a top level team with wins over the Patriots and 49ers in the past 2 weeks, winning both by a touchdown or less, despite going 2-14 in games decided by a touchdown or less since the start of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era in 2011. That type of thing is inconsistent in the long run, so that’s no surprise. Their success this season shouldn’t be seen as a surprise either.

In 2012, The Panthers won 6 of their final 9 games to finish 7-9. Among those 6 wins were victories over division winners Washington and Atlanta, as well as a victory in New Orleans against the Saints. In their final 8 games, they averaged 26.0 points per game, which would have been tied for 8th in the NFL last season. That’s no fluke, as they ranked 5th in the NFL scoring 25.4 points per game in 2011. Also, in their final 12 games of the season, after moving Luke Kuechly to the middle, they allowed just 21.2 points per game, which would have been 12th in the NFL over the course of the whole season, even though they played top-16 scoring offenses in 8 of those 12 games. They also had a strong draft, adding both Star Lotulelei and Kawaan Short. This is a legitimate top level football team.

On the season, the Panthers are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents, a differential that is 2nd in the NFL. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are not nearly as good as their record. They are missing three starters from their offensive line, Jonathan Martin and Richie Incognito obviously, as well as Mike Pouncey, their talented center who will miss his 2nd straight game with an illness. They beat the Chargers last week, but that was because the Chargers were in a sandwich game situation on the East Coast at 1 PM as a West Coast team and also missing their talented left tackle King Dunlap.

The Dolphins’ offensive line wasn’t very good before they lost starters and they’re even worse now. They move the chains at a mere 71% rate, largely because of their offensive line, while their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate, as their retooled defense has not lived up to expectations. That differential is actually 30th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be about 8 instead of 4, so we’re once again getting a ton of line value with the Panthers.

The Panthers also have always done a great job of blowing out bad teams in the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. They are 5-0 as 6+ point favorites in since 2011, winning those 5 games by an average of 20.0 points per game. The Dolphins aren’t underdogs of 6 or more, but you could argue they deserve to be. The Panthers should be able to blow them out here. The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Panthers could be flat off of two huge wins, but they’re good enough to blow out the Dolphins even if they are a little flat. The Panthers are also my Survivor Pick for this week.

Carolina Panthers 27 Miami Dolphins 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Carolina -4

Confidence: Low

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San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Chargers, Dolphins, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (4-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

The Chargers are in an obvious sandwich game spot here in between a loss at home for Denver and a game in Kansas City next week. Teams are 74-95 ATS since 2008 as favorites in between a loss as underdogs and another game in which they will be underdogs. Since 1989, teams are 29-45 ATS as road favorites in between a loss as underdogs and another game in which they will be underdogs. Road favorites are 37-50 ATS off of a home loss as underdogs since 1989. Also since 1989, non-divisional favorites are 24-40 ATS off a loss as divisional underdogs before being divisional underdogs again. It makes sense. Why would San Diego put forth a ton of effort for Miami in between arguably the two biggest games of their season?

However, Miami could also still be very distracted with the whole Incognito/Martin situation. At the same time, enough time might have passed that they are more motivated to silence their critics than distracted, especially after last week’s embarrassing loss in Tampa Bay. It’s really tough to know and that makes this a tough pick. Also, Miami is not as good as their record. Distractions weren’t the only reason Miami lost in Tampa Bay. They are moving the chains at a 70% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. Their off-season spending spree has not paid off and being without two starters on their offensive line doesn’t help. The Chargers, meanwhile, are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. That suggests they should be favored by about 3.5. I’m going to take San Diego on pure talent, but I’m not confident at all.

San Diego Chargers 27 Miami Dolphins 23

Pick against spread: San Diego -1.5

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins, Uncategorized

Last week: 25 (+0)

Record: 4-5

The Incognito/Martin situation and the loss of two starters on the offensive line were a big part of it, but the Dolphins’ loss to the Buccaneers was largely a result of this team’s lack of talent. GM Jeff Ireland should be fired, but not because of the Incognito/Martin situation. How much money did he spend on this shit show? They have been very good in both red zone, allowing a touchdown on 51.5% of red zone attempts, 11th, and scoring one on 64.3% of red zone attempts, 5th. However, they are moving the chains at just a 70% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents, a differential that is 29th in the NFL. Off-season acquisitions Mike Wallace, Dannell Ellerbe, and Philip Wheeler have not paid off. They’ll finish pretty far near the bottom at the end of the season.

Week 10 Studs

QB Ryan Tannehill

WR Rishard Matthews

DT Randy Starks

LE Derrick Shelby

CB Brent Grimes

Week 10 Duds

MLB Dannell Ellerbe

OLB Philip Wheeler

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