Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bengals, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

This is Andy Dalton’s 22nd career start. Assuming Baltimore makes the playoffs and Washington, Jacksonville, and Cleveland don’t, that means that Dalton is 12-0 in his career against non-playoff teams and 0-9 against playoff teams, making the Bengals the definition of average. This week, he plays the Dolphins, who sit at 1-3 and who probably won’t make the playoffs, but they’re hardly a pushover.

They got blown out week 1, but that was Ryan Tannehill’s first career start and it was in Houston and Houston is probably the best team in the league. Since then, they’ve blown out Oakland and lost in overtime to the Jets and Dolphins as underdogs. By the way, they’re just the 7th team since 1989 to lose back to back overtime games (4-2 ATS in their next contest). Last year, they had a Pythagorean Expectation of about 8 wins and won 6, because of a strong defense. They have a strong defense once again this year and that has propelled them to actually rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential.

The Bengals, meanwhile, rank 10th in yards per play differential, which is actually worse than Miami, despite arguably the easier schedule. It’s important to know that the Bengals are finally getting healthy. Carlos Dunlap returned 2 weeks ago to reinvigorate a pass rush that now ranks 4th in pass rush efficiency (the Dolphins do rank 3rd, by the way). Their strong pass rush has helped take some of the pressure off a banged up secondary which used Adam Jones, Terence Newman, and Chris Crocker as its top 3 cornerbacks last week.

Luckily their pass rush abused Blaine Gabbert, who did his thing and stunk up the joint against a very banged up secondary. Tannehill might not have done the same thing, so it’s good that Leon Hall, Nate Clements, and Dre Kirkpatrick are expected back this week (Jason Allen isn’t). It’s worth noting that Hall, still less than 11 months removed from Achilles surgery, did not look like his old self before missing the last 2 games with injuries to that same leg, which is hardly a good sign. Still, this 22nd ranked pass defense should see improvements in the future and this isn’t the same unit that Brandon Weeden torched week 2. They do, however, really struggle against the run, ranking dead last, so Reggie Bush should have a good game, which will make life easier for Tannehill.

Despite Cincinnati’s improving health, there is some line value here. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 0.2 and an old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and add 3 points in either direction for home field advantage, so this line should be -1.5 in favor of Cincinnati. Of course, that doesn’t take into account Cincinnati’s improving injury situation, but it also doesn’t take into account their cupcake schedule. Despite some line value, the public is still pounding Cincinnati. The common perception is that Miami isn’t very good and Cincinnati should beat them easily. In spite of that, the line is dropping, and pretty significantly (down from -5.5 to -3.5 since it opened), so this has all the makings of a trap line.

Miami also has two powerful trends on their side. They’re dogs before being favorites (they host St. Louis next week). Dogs tend to be extra focused with an easy game on the horizon, going 74-44 ATS in this situation since 2011, including 19-8 ATS off a loss as a dog. Miami is also in their 2nd straight as a road dog off a loss, a situation teams are 59-38 ATS in since 2008. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is just 5-13 ATS as favorites of 3+ since 2007. You might think that would have changed over the last year plus with this team playing so well against bad teams, but actually, they’re just 2-1 ATS in this situation, so it’s hard to say. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because Miami probably isn’t a playoff team and Andy Dalton never loses to those teams. However, as long as I have field goal protection, it’s a small play on Miami to cover and not win.

Public lean: Cincinnati (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 7 CIN 18

Final pick: The sharps love Cincinnati this week. Miami feels like the right side, but there’s absolutely no line value here and this is the type of game Cincinnati normally wins. I’m going down to 1 unit. One injury note, Miami will be without #2 cornerback Richard Marshall and Dre Kirkpatrick will not make his debut for Cincinnati.

Cincinnati Bengals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against spread: Miami +3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Miami Dolphins: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#25)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 29 (+4)

Record: 1-3

The Dolphins lost in overtime last week, but you could argue they should have won, on the road, against an unbeaten team. The Cardinals recovered all 6 of the fumbles that hit the ground and Miami averaged a whopping 6.5 yards per play, as opposed to 4.2 for Arizona. They rank 8th in the league in yards per play differential and since their week 1 blowout loss against Houston, who pretty much blows everyone out, they’ve blown out the Raiders and lost in overtime to the Cardinals and Jets. Ryan Tannehill is a rookie and he’s going to be inconsistent, but he has promise. They also run the ball well and play solid defense. They won’t make the playoffs or anything, but this is an underrated team that could play spoiler and upset some “superior” teams.

Studs

C Mike Pouncey: Did not allow a pressure on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 46 yards on 7 attempts

WR Brian Hartline: Caught 12 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts on 44 pass plays, 8.0 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions when thrown to

WR Davone Bess: Caught 7 passes for 123 yards on 12 attempts on 45 pass plays, 8.7 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LOLB Kevin Burnett: 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 5 stops, and 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 9 blitzes, allowed 5 catches for 28 yards on 5 attempts

MLB Karlos Dansby: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 11 blitzes, did not allow a completion on 3 attempts

LE Cameron Wake: 5 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 7 quarterback hurries on 49 pass rush snaps, 5 stops

CB Sean Smith: Allowed 8 catches for 76 yards and a touchdown on 12 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop

CB Nolan Carroll: Allowed 6 catches for 69 yards on 13 attempts, 6 solo tackles

Duds

RT Jonathan Martin: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 4 attempts

RB Reggie Bush: Rushed for 67 yards (26 after contact) on 17 carries, 1 penalty, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass rush snaps

WR Legedu Naanee: Caught 1 pass for 19 yards on 2 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch

DT Randy Starks: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

DT Paul Soliai: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Miami Dolphins at Arizona Cardinals: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (3-0)

The Cardinals are 3-0 right now, but they’re incredibly overrated. Do you really trust anyone on this offense other than Larry Fitzgerald? The defense is great, but I don’t think they’re well rounded enough to make the playoffs in a loaded NFC. They have a negative yards per play differential and rank tied for 30th in offensive yards per plays. 3-0 is impressive, especially considering who they’ll played, but the Bills started 3-0 last year. Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).

Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction for the rest of the season.

Bettors should also take advantage of a dynamic change with the Cardinals going from dogs in 3 straight (and pulling 3 straight upsets) to being favorites. It’s one thing to win when nobody believes in you. It’s another to win when you buy into your own hype (see the 49ers last week). As a result of this, home favorites are 3-12 ATS since 2008 after a win as a home dog (15-23 ATS since 2002, 38-51 ATS since 1989). The Cardinals could easily be overconfident in this one after 3 not as impressive as they seem wins against the “lowly” Dolphins, especially just a few days before a Thursday Night divisional matchup with the Rams.

Now onto the “lowly” Dolphins. They’re not as lowly as they seem. In fact, both they and the Cardinals have the same yards per play differential, which suggests this line should be -3, instead of -6. The Dolphins’ offense is completely inept, but their defense is not bad at all. They were the league’s 6th ranked scoring defense last year and this year they’ve picked up right where they left off. This should be a low scoring game and the Cardinals don’t have the type of offense to be 6 point favorites against a good defense. The Dolphins are also in a good situation. Teams that nearly pull off upsets as a home dog (loss by 3 or fewer) are 58-40 ATS in their next game since 2002.

Injuries will play a factor in this game as both Reggie Bush and Darnell Dockett are key players who are questionable for the Dolphins and Cardinals respectively. Dockett’s injury is bigger because he’s a key player on defense for them, such a key unit given their offense’s mediocrity. Bush is also more likely to play because he practiced today, while Dockett did not. Besides, in his absence last week, Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas didn’t look too bad.

I don’t love any one single play this week, but this is one of my favorite and a co-pick of the week. Arizona is overrated and struggles on offense. Against a tough and underrated defense, there’s no way they should be laying more than a field goal. If they win, it’ll be a game similar to their first 2 (by 3 and by 2), rather than last week, when Philadelphia imploded on themselves. Arizona won last week largely because they were +3 in the turnover margin. However, turnovers are very unpredictable on a week to week basis. Teams that win the turnover differential battle by 3 win the turnover battle by an average of +0.1 in their following game since 2002

They’re also in a prime letdown situation as home favorites after 3 straight upset wins. San Francisco is better coached, more proven, and more legitimately talented than the Cardinals are and even they bought into their own hype last week. Expect a similar result from Arizona this week against a similarly underrated team, especially with a divisional clash coming up in just 4 days.

The other thing I like in this game is that the public is pounding Arizona and predictably so. The general perception is that Arizona is a legitimate 3-0 team, while Miami is terrible, so Arizona should easily beat them by a touchdown. If this year is any indication, the general perception is normally wrong. That’s why the odds makers are rich. On games with more than 80% of the action on one side, the public is just 4-12 this year.

This game fits that description and yet the line is still dropping, indicative of a trap line. It also curiously didn’t move from last week to this week, despite Arizona’s huge win, as it was -6 last week and opened this week at -6.5 (it’s now dropped to -6 or -5.5). The odds makers want as much money as possible coming in on Arizona, probably because they know something the general public doesn’t understand, which is that these teams aren’t that unevenly matched, as their yards per play differential would indicate. Smart bettors won’t fall for their trap and will ride the correction against Arizona.

Public lean: Arizona (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): MIA 16 ARZ 5

Update: My 3 co-picks of the week all coincide with the 3 strongest sharps leans of the week. Feeling good.

Miami Dolphins 17 Arizona Cardinals 16 Upset Pick +210

Pick against spread: Miami +6 (-105) 4 units

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Miami Dolphins: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 28 (-1)

Record: 1-2

They’ve got a very tough and underrated defense and they’ll play spoiler to a few teams as underdogs (like they almost did last weekend), but their offensive ineptitude is going to keep this team as one of the worst in the league. Ryan Tannehill is not a capable NFL quarterback yet and the team’s offensive leader, running back Reggie Bush, has injured his knee and is questionable going forward. That’s hardly surprising given his history.

Studs

LT Jake Long: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 5 attempts

LG Richie Incognito: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 43 yards on 6 attempts

WR Davone Bess: 5 catches for 86 yards on 6 targets on 37 pass snaps, 4.2 YAC per catch

MLB Karlos Dansby: 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 5 stops, allowed 4 catches for 43 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 quarterback hurry on 11 blitzes

CB Sean Smith: Did not allow a catch on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles

LE Cameron Wake: 3 quarterback hits and 8 quarterback hurries on 42 pass rush snaps, 7 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

RT Jonathan Martin: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

WR Anthony Armstrong: 2 catches for 9 yards on 6 targets on 19 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 3 drops

WR Brian Hartline: 1 catch for 41 yards on 8 targets on 39 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets

New York Jets (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

Yeah, how’s that Jets’ offense doing now? After scoring 48 in the opener in a heavily defense and special teams aided effort, the Jets scored just 10 points last week and Mark Sanchez, who was 19 of 27 for 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick in the opener, completed just 10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown against a Steeler defense missing Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. In actuality, Sanchez is probably not as bad as he looked last week, but he’s not as good as he looked week 1 either.

This week, his matchup is once again going to be hard. The Dolphins have a nice defense, as they did last year, when they ranked 6th in scoring defense. The thing they do best in run the stuff, which they rank 1st in the league at. And they haven’t been facing marginally talented backs. First they faced Houston’s dynamic duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate and last week they shut down Darren McFadden. Shonn Greene is significantly less talented than them, so Sanchez is going to be in a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs in this one.

The biggest difference for the Dolphins from week 1 to week 2 was the offense. In Week 1, the defense played well, but their offense’s ineptitude and high amount of turnovers made it just too hard for their defense. Last week, Ryan Tannehill played much better, they minimized the turnovers, moved the chains, scored points and made life a lot easier for their talented defense. If they can do that, they might surprise a few people.

However, that’s easier said than done. Tannehill’s performance was aided by Reggie Bush’s awesome effort on the ground as he rushed for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jets’ typically have a good run defense, but they were run on with ease by CJ Spiller in the opener. However, after what Spiller did to Kansas City last week, that’s not looking so bad anymore and the Jets were much better against the run last week with stud nose tackle Sione Pouha in the lineup. Bush probably won’t have as good of a game and besides, Tannehill is a rookie, so it’s hard to trust him just yet.

In the opener, the Jets were without Pouha, but last week, they were without Darrelle Revis. They’ll get him back. Tannehill got to deal with the Raiders cornerback trio of Patrick Lee, Shawntae Spencer, and Joselio Hanson last week. Facing a tougher secondary, he should find life very hard once again, especially with a mediocre receiving corps. The good news is that the Jets rank 31st in pass rush efficiency (the Raiders are 32nd), so Tannehill should have time in the pocket like he did last week (pressured on 9 of 33 drop backs), even if they can’t establish the same running game as they did last week.

This figures to be a low scoring defensive battle overall. This line moved about 2 points from last week, so there’s a bit of an overreaction to Miami’s blowout win over the Raiders, but I still think the Dolphins are a little underrated. Their points per play differential is 0.6 points better than the Jets, who rank 26th in that statistic, which is a significant difference. Unless their offense puts up a total stinker again like they did week 1, their defense should be able make life tough for Mark Sanchez.

I know it’s risky to bet on Tannehill to be serviceable, but it is week 3 and rookie quarterbacks who start week 1 are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS since 2008 week 3. Besides, the Jets could find themselves caught in a breather game this week. Favorites before being dogs after losing as dogs are 49-77 ATS since 2008. The Jets host San Francisco next week. It’s only a small bet because of Tannehill and because there’s a chance that the Jets could do to the Dolphins exactly what they did to the Bills week 1, dominate them defensively, dominate the field position battle, get easy scores, and then run up the score on a defense that is tired and quits. It’s a tough game plan to rely on, but it’s a possibility. One note, pay extra for field goal protection (+3), if you can.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-125) 2 units

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Miami Dolphins: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 1-1

Ryan Tannehill is going to have days like he had in the opener (20-36 219 yards, 3 interceptions) and days like he had last week (18-30 200 yards, 1 touchdown). He’s a raw rookie with 19 collegiate starts. He’s going to be inconsistent. I don’t give them too much credit for beating a crappy Raiders team at home, especially when the Raiders were playing a 1 PM start as a West Coast team and coming off a short week because of Monday Night Football. Also, I’m still not sold that last week’s hero, Reggie Bush, will be able to stay healthy for 16 games. Bush rushed for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns on 26 carries, and added 25 yards more through the air on 3 catches. He made live easy for Tannehill and was the primary reason they won.

Studs

RB Reggie Bush: Rushed for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns (51 yards after contact) on 26 carries, 4 broken tackles, 3 catches for 25 yards on 4 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 7 pass block snaps

C Mike Pouncey: Run blocked for 59 yards on 13 attempts, did not allow a pressure on 34 pass block snaps

CB Sean Smith: Allowed 2 catches for 50 yards on 8 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles

SS Reshad Jones: Allowed 1 catch for 13 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 7 blitzes

DT Randy Starks: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback pressures on 35 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

P Brandon Fields: 6 punts for 319 yards, 5 of 6 inside the 20, 5 returns for 58 yards, 43.5 net yards per punt

Duds

ROLB Koa Misi: Allowed 4 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Dolphins rule Daniel Thomas out with a concussion

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

Daniel Thomas is the Dolphins’ 2nd string running back and is the type of player who could have a big role on a weekly basis, depending on the matchup, because of how much the Dolphins like to run. They only got the run 19 times in the opener, 2 of which were quarterback scrambles, because they were down by so much, so Thomas only had 3 carries. He did catch a catch for 32 yards though. This week they should have a more evenly matched game, playing the Oakland Raiders, but Thomas will not play.

Thomas suffered a concussion last week towards the end of the game. He was given clearance to play this week, which is a good sign going forward, but the Dolphins are being extra cautious with the 2011 2nd round pick and will hold him out anyway. Lamar Miller, a 4th round rookie and a game day inactive week 1, will serve as Reggie Bush’s primary backup.

There shouldn’t be a huge drop off, if any, as Thomas has disappointed in his career thus far, averaging just 3.5 YPC. Miller might even be an upgrade and use this game as a launching pad to become the primary #2 back over Thomas, who had been in the new coaching staff’s doghouse at times this offseason. Marcus Thigpen, meanwhile, will continue to serve as the 3rd game day active back because of his role as a return man on special teams. In the opener, he averaged 27.4 yards per return on 5 kickoffs and returned a punt to the house 72 yards for the team’s only touchdown of the day.

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Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (0-1)

Before the season, I had the Raiders as one of my overrated teams. The Raiders’ Pythagorean Expectation last year suggested they should have won 6 games, not 8, as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, the most wins of that kind of any team last season. The Raiders also lost their top cornerback Stanford Routt and their top pass rusher Kamerion Wimbley in free agency.

If that’s not enough, starting linebacker Aaron Curry could be out for the year and will be replaced in the starting lineup by a 4th round rookie and defensive tackles Tommy Kelly and Richard Seymour are both going into their age 33 seasons, with the latter already dealing with a bad knee. They had the league’s 29th ranked scoring defense last year, allowing 27.1 points per game and could be the league’s worst scoring defense this year. Carson Palmer and the playmakers on offense can make some plays, but they’ll also commit a lot of turnovers and it won’t be enough to offset the defense’s play.

The idea behind identifying overrated and underrated teams was to be one step ahead of the odds makers and essentially blindly bet against the overrated teams and on the underrated teams until the odds makers caught up or the teams proved me wrong. Well I haven’t been proven wrong as the Raiders lost at home to a banged up Chargers team that normally struggles on the road early in the season. Have the odds makers caught up? Well, considering the Raiders are road favorites here in Miami, I would say no.

Miami is a very good team or anything, but the Raiders don’t deserve to be road favorites over anyone. I’ve mentioned before that teams that finish with 6 or fewer wins cover at about a 30% rate as favorites of 6 or more. Well, the Raiders aren’t favorites of 6 or more, but they’re road favorites of 2.5, which would translate to -8.5 in Oakland. The trend isn’t as strong in this situation, but the logic is the same; they’re just not good enough to be favored on the road over anyone.

There’s also the issue of the Raiders having to play a 1 PM game on the East Coast as a West Coast teams. Teams are typically flat in this situation and the Raiders are no exception, going 6-12 ATS on the East Coast in 1 PM games since 2003. The Raiders came in to Miami in a very similar situation last year and lost 34-14 as 3 point underdogs, even though the Dolphins were 4-7 at the time and the Raiders were 7-4. This time, the Raiders are favorites, which makes Miami an even more enticing bet since Oakland is 4-14 ATS as favorites since 2006. They also haven’t been road favorites since week 14 of 2005 (a loss), which makes sense since they’ve never been qualified to be road favorites since then. They aren’t this week either.

These teams are pretty evenly matched. This line should be about -3 in favor of Miami (3 points is home field advantage), as it was last year. The Dolphins are worse offensively since last year, but the Raiders are worse defensively. Instead, it’s -2.5 in favor of Oakland, so there’s about 5.5 points of line value, which goes back to my point about Oakland being overrated. That alone would be enough for a bet on Miami, but I like betting against Oakland as favorites and on the road on the East Coast at 1 PM.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Miami Dolphins 20 Oakland Raiders 17 Upset Pick +140

Pick against spread: Miami +2.5 (-105) 3 units

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Miami Dolphins: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 27 (+0)

Record: 0-1

Maybe starting a rookie quarterback with 19 collegiate starts will prove to be the right move in the long run, but for now, it’s really stifling their offense, especially with no one at the wide receiver position who can create separation. Tannehill’s 20 for 36 for 219 yards and 3 interception performance is going to be pretty common for him this season and while they have talent defensively, there’s only so long a defense can hold them if the offense can’t stay on the field. Eventually they get worn down and give up plays. You saw it this weekend. You simply can’t consistently win games in the NFL if one of your units is playing as poorly as the Dolphins’ offense figures to play this season. You need some balance.

Studs

LT Jake Long: Allowed 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 40 pass block plays, run blocked for 19 yards on 4 carries, 1 penalty

DT Randy Starks: 2 sacks and 3 quarterback hits on 21 pass rush snaps, 3 tackles and 4 stops on 24 run snaps

LE Cameron Wake: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback pressures on 26 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops on 31 run snaps

SS Reshad Jones: 5 solo tackles and 1 stop on 35 run snaps, did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 quarterback pressure on 1 blitz

RB Marcus Thigpen: 5 kickoff returns for 137 yards (27.4 per), 2 punt returns for 76 yards (38.0 per), 1 punt return touchdown

Duds

RT Jonathan Martin: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback pressures on 40 pass block plays, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 carry

RB Daniel Thomas: 11 yards (6 after contact) on 3 carries, 1 fumble, 1 catch for 32 yards on 2 targets, 1 drop, allowed 2 quarterback pressures on 4 pass block snaps

LG Richie Incognito: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback pressures on 40 pass block plays, run blocked for 14 yards on 2 carries, 2 penalties

QB Ryan Tannehill: 20 for 36 for 219 yards, 3 interceptions, 2 throw aways, 2 batted passes, 3 drops, 59.0 adjusted QB rating, -1 rushing yard (0 after contact) on 2 carries, 1 fumble

WR Legedu Naanee: 0 catches on 2 attempts on 12 pass plays, 2 interceptions when thrown to

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Dolphins put Artis Hicks on IR, could sign Jake Scott

stevenlourie Dolphins, News

Right guard figures to be a major problem for the Dolphins this season. 2010 3rd round pick John Jerry was supposed to be the solution at right guard for them, with incumbent Vernon Carey retiring, but, already a poor fit for their zone blocking scheme, Jerry showed up out of shape this offseason and lost his starting job to Artis Hicks, a 34 year old who struggled in limited action as a backup in Cleveland last season. Hicks is now on IR with neck problems that might end his career, meaning Jerry will start by default.

However, the Dolphins still don’t seem impressed with Jerry as they are reportedly interested in signing free agent Jake Scott, who they worked out earlier this offseason, according to the Miami Herald. Scott played well in pass protection last year for the Tennessee Titans, but he was a terrible run blocker and at age 31, there’s a reason he’s still unsigned this close to the start of the season. That’s how bad things are at right guard for the Dolphins. Whoever starts there figures to struggle.

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