Dolphins

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: 2018 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)

The Dolphins are 5-5, but they’ve been much worse than their record. While all 5 of their wins have come by 8 points or fewer, their 5 losses have all come by double digits, giving them a -57 point differential in the season, 5th worst in the NFL. In terms of first down rate differential, they are even worse, ranking 30th at -5.47%, only ahead of the Cardinals and Bills. They get quarterback Ryan Tannehill back healthy this week, but backup Brock Osweiler was not much a downgrade from him and there’s no guarantee he’s 100% after missing over a month with a shoulder injury.

The Colts are also 5-5, but they’ve been much better. They rank 8th in point differential at +49 and 8th in first down rate differential at +3.09%. They’ve also been much better over the past few weeks, after an injury plagued start to the season, winning 4 straight games by a combined 77 points and playing at a legitimately high level. Four of their five wins have come by more than a touchdown and they should be able to hand the Dolphins their 6th multiscore loss. I think we lost some line value when the Colts blew out the Titans last week (I can’t tell for sure because this line was off last week because of Tannehill’s uncertainty) and I wish we were getting a better line like -7, but I have this line calculated at Indianapolis -12, so we’re still getting line value with the Colts, who remain underrated despite their recent strong play.

Indianapolis Colts 31 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -7.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (4-4)

When these two teams met in week 2, the Dolphins got an upset victory as road underdogs in New York, winning 20-12. That doesn’t necessarily mean the Dolphins will win at home though. In fact, divisional home favorites only win about 55% of the time over the past 15 years against a team they previously beat as road underdogs and they are just 35-64 ATS against the spread. Evenly matched teams tend to split the season series, even if the road underdog pulls the upset in the first game.

The Dolphins have also had a lot of injuries since that game, with quarterback Ryan Tannehill, wide receivers Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills, and defensive ends Charles Harris and William Hayes all going down with injury since week 2, though the Jets are likely without their top-2 receivers Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson, along with center Spencer Long and cornerback Trumaine Johnson, so neither team is in a good injury situation.

The Dolphins are also in a terrible spot with a trip to Green Bay on deck, while the Jets return home and face the lowly Bills next week. Favorites are just 41-71 ATS since 2002 before being double digit underdogs, which the Dolphins are on the early line for next week’s game, and favorites in general are just 51-84 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, which the Jets will be next week. I wish we were getting a full field goal with the Jets because I have these teams about even in my rankings, so there’s no line value at +2.5, but the money line is a good play at +125 and if this line moves up to 3 before gametime I will make this a higher confidence pick.

Update: Two developments in this game Sunday morning. For one, the line has shifted back and +3s are available. On top of that, both Quincy Enunwa and Robby Anderson are expected to suit up for the Jets, despite limited practice this week. They likely won’t be at 100%, but they should still provide a boost for a very thin receiving corps. The Jets are a solid play this week if you can get +3 because they’re in so much better of a spot than the Dolphins.

New York Jets 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans: 2018 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Houston Texans (4-3)

Typically the rule of thumb for betting Thursday Night Football is to take the home team as long as they are comparable to or better than their opponents and as long as it’s not a division game. Non-divisional home favorites are 32-15 ATS all-time on Thursday nights, including 13-5 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more. That makes a lot of sense, as it’s very tough for a team to travel on a short week and face an unfamiliar opponent, especially if that opponent has a talent advantage as well.

That trend is certainly in play here, with the Dolphins traveling to Houston on a short week as 7.5 point underdogs. Putting the Dolphins at even more of a disadvantage is the fact that they’ll be without arguably their two best pass catchers due to injury, with both Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills sidelined for this one. The Dolphins have solid depth at the wide receiver position, with both Jakeem Grant and Devante Parker capable of filling roles in 3-wide sets with slot receiver Danny Amendola, but this passing game could easily be out of sync with such limited practice time this week.

The Dolphins also have other problems besides the receiving corps. They’re 4-3, but they have a -26 point differential (4 wins by a combined 26 points, 3 losses by a combined 52 points) and rank 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.51%. They’re also starting backup quarterback Brock Osweiler for the 3rd straight week and, while he might not actually be that much of a downgrade from mediocre starter Ryan Tannehill, him starting just makes it more likely this passing game will be out of sync on a short week, with a backup quarterback throwing to unfamiliar receivers.

The Texans have some issues on offense too, with Deshaun Watson at less than 100%, playing behind arguably the worst offensive line in football, but their defense has played like a top-5 unit this year with all of their key players back healthy, ranking 3rd in first down rate allowed at 31.22%, only behind the Ravens and Jaguars. Overall, they rank 8th in first down rate differential at +2.47%. I wish we were getting more line value with the Texans, as I have these two teams about 4.5 points apart in my roster rankings, suggesting this line is accurate, but they are the pick for pick ‘em purposes and I would definitely bet them if the line went back down to 7 where it briefly opened, as the Texans should be able to win this game by at least a touchdown.

Houston Texans 24 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Houston -7.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (4-2)

The Lions are coming off of a bye and teams tend to do well as significant road favorites after a bye, going 25-9 ATS as road favorites of 3+ since 2008. The Dolphins faced a Bears team in the same spot last week though and pulled the upset as 7-point underdogs. That’s probably partially because the Bears were expecting to face regular Dolphins starter Ryan Tannehill, who was surprisingly ruled out Sunday morning, after suffering a setback to his shoulder injury at practice the previous Friday.

Instead, the Bears faced Brock Osweiler, who has shown in the past he can play well when teams aren’t expecting to face him, playing arguably his best game of the past 3 seasons as a mid-game injury replacement last year with the Broncos against the Colts. With the Lions having a full week to prepare for him, I would be surprised if Osweiler didn’t regress this week, even with the Lions having an underwhelming defense.

The Dolphins are getting some starters back on defense for this one, with defensive end Cameron Wake and cornerback Bobby McCain returning to practice this week after missing the past two games and practicing in full on Friday, but the Lions are getting healthier too, with right guard TJ Lang returning after the bye and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah possibly playing for the first time since week 1. There isn’t enough line value to take the Lions as 3 point road favorites, but this should be able to win this one with relative ease.

Detroit Lions 26 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: Low

Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (3-1) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)

The Dolphins have really fallen back to earth after a surprising 3-0 start. After winning those first 3 games by a combined 23 points against a relatively easy group of teams, the Dolphins have lost their last 2 by a combined 41 points on the road against a pair of tough teams in the Patriots and Bengals. They’ve suffered a few injuries, with cornerback Bobby McCain and defensive end Cameron Wake missing last week’s game and likely out again this week, and on paper they are one of the least talented teams in the league right now without those two key defenders. The Dolphins return home this week, but they have another tough opponent on deck, with the Chicago Bears coming to town.

Before their week 5 bye, the Bears had a breakout performance in a 48-10 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Buccaneers aren’t exactly the toughest of opponents, but the Bears have been impressive beyond just that one game. They are 3-1, rank 2nd in first down rate differential at +7.59%, 3rd in point differential at +46, and could easily be 4-0 if they didn’t blow a big second half lead in Green Bay in an eventual 1-point loss. Mitch Trubisky remains a question mark under center, despite shredding an awful Tampa Bay secondary for 6 touchdowns, but outside of the quarterback position this is arguably the most talented team in the league. Even with Trubisky a question mark, this is arguably a top-5 team right now, thanks to the most talented defense in the league.

We’re getting good line value with the Bears as just 3.5 point road favorites, as I have this line calculated at -6.5, but the Bears are also in a conflicting spot this week, which makes them a less confident bet. While they are coming off of a bye, and road favorites of 3.5+ are 16-4 ATS since 2010 after a bye, they also have to turn around and face the Patriots in a week, a game in which they will likely be home underdogs. Road favorites are just 25-52 ATS before being home underdogs since 2010, so this could easily be a trap game for the Bears, even off of a bye. They’re the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I’d need this line to go down to 3 to put any money on Chicago.

Update: Ryan Tannehill was surprisingly ruled out Sunday morning, after re-aggravating a throwing shoulder injury during Friday’s practice. That’s obviously a blow to the Dolphins, who now have to turn to backup Brock Osweiler, but the line has compensated appropriately, moving from 3.5 to 7, so this remains a low confidence pick.

Chicago Bears 23 Miami Dolphins 10

Pick against the spread: Chicago -7

Confidence: Low

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)

The Dolphins began the season 3-0, but then they got blown out 38-7 in New England last week. They lost by so much that they now have a negative -8 point differential on the season and a -0.84% first down rate differential. The Patriots are obviously a tough opponent, but the Dolphins had a pretty easy schedule early in the season and this week they have to go on the road and face another tough opponent in Cincinnati.

The Dolphins’ blowout loss last week cost us some line value with the Bengals, as this line shifted from 3.5 on the early line to 6 this week, but we’re still getting line value with them, as the Dolphins enter this game very banged up. They’ll likely get safety Reshad Jones back from injury this week, but cornerback Bobby McCain and defensive end Cameron Wake, two key defensive players, will sit out, joining rotational defensive ends Andre Branch and WIlliam Hayes and talented guard Josh Sitton on the sidelines. A pretty mediocre roster to begin with, the Dolphins are missing some key pieces.

The Bengals, on the other hand, are getting closer to full strength, with running back Joe Mixon returning from a two game absence and every down linebacker Vontaze Burfict making his season debut, after beginning the season with a 4-game suspension. They lost tight end Tyler Eifert and backup running back Giovani Bernard to injury last week and center Billy Price remains out with a foot injury, but Mixon and Burfict are two of their most important players. The Bengals have been a pretty good team even without them, ranking 6th in first down rate differential at 6.60%. They’re worth a bet at as 6 point favorites at home over a banged up Miami team.

Cincinnati Bengals 30 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati -6

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2018 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2)

After a solid week 1 win at home over the Texans, the Patriots have been embarrassed in back-to-back weeks on the road, losing by double digits in Jacksonville and Detroit. Now they return home to face a surprise 3-0 Dolphins team. This line has shrunk to 6.5 as a result, but I think that’s an overreaction that’s created some line value with the Patriots. The Dolphins have not been dominant in any of their 3 wins and have faced a pretty easy schedule, facing the Raiders and Jets, two of the worst teams in the conference, and a banged up Titans team. Ryan Tannehill is playing at a high level in his return from injury, but they have a pretty underwhelming roster overall.

The Patriots, meanwhile, should continue to get the benefit of the doubt, despite a slow start, as we’ve seen them come back from slow starts in the past and make Super Bowls. The Patriots have also been great off of a loss in the Belichick era, going 47-25 ATS after a loss since 2000 (37-19 ATS with Tom Brady). I know they didn’t win last week, despite coming off of a loss, but they’ve actually been even better off two straight losses, going 8-3 ATS in Brady’s career and incredibly not losing 3 straight games since 2002. Perhaps even more incredible is Tom Brady’s career record against teams with better records than his, as he’s 34-12 straight up and 36-10 ATS.

Their offense probably won’t hit its stride until it gets Julian Edelman back, but Josh Gordon could be active this week and their defense would get a big boost in this game if defensive end Trey Flowers and safety Patrick Chung can return after missing the last game and a half with concussions. Two of their most important defensive players, it’s no surprise their defense has struggled since losing them, after a solid performance against the Texans week 1. Flowers and Chung are not guarantees to return this week, but both returned to practice this week and could be cleared from the concussion protocol. I’m keeping this as a low confidence pick for now, but depending on the status of Chung, Gordon, and Flowers and how the line reacts I may decide to make a bet on this one in the morning.

Sunday Update: Gordon, Flowers, and Chung are all active for New England, while Reshad Jones is out for the Dolphins, but the line has stayed put at 6.5. I’m bumping this up to a medium confidence pick.

New England Patriots 31 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: New England -6.5

Confidence: Medium

Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)

The Raiders have started 0-2, while the Dolphins have started 2-0, but I have the Raiders about a point better in my roster rankings. The Dolphins’ wins have come over the Jets and the primarily Blaine Gabbert led Titans, while the Raiders’ losses came against the Rams and Broncos. All 4 games these two teams have played have been competitive, with the one exception on the scoreboard being the Raiders’ loss to the Rams, but that game was close into the 4th quarter before late turnovers.

This line, favoring the Dolphins by 3.5 at home, suggests the opposite, that the Dolphins are a little bit better than the Raiders. That might have been the case before the Dolphins lost guard Josh Sitton, arguably their best offensive lineman, for the season with a shoulder injury. The free agent acquisition made their offensive line look passable for the first time in years in the opener and the Dolphins’ offensive line struggled mightily without him against the Jets.

This is also a much more important game for the Raiders than the Dolphins, so I expect them to be a lot more focused. While the Dolphins are already 2-0 and have arguably their biggest game of the season on deck, a trip to New England to face the Patriots, the Raiders are desperate for a win and don’t have any upcoming distractions, with only a home game against the Browns on deck. Underdogs are 78-44 ATS since 2014 before being favorites (which the Raiders will be next week) when their opponent will next be underdogs (which the Dolphins will be in New England). I wouldn’t take the Raiders at 3 because we’re not getting enough line value, but they’re worth a bet at 3.5. They should be able to keep this one close even if they can’t pull off the upset.

Oakland Raiders 27 Miami Dolphins 26 Upset Pick +145

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0)

Everyone saw the Jets get a big 48-17 win on Monday Night Football last week and I think they’re a little overrated as a result of it. The Jets finished with just the 7th best first down rate differential at +5.94% and didn’t have a touchdown drive of more than 6 plays all game, benefitting from short fields off turnovers (5 takeaways), big plays on offense (2 touchdowns of 40+ yards), and return touchdowns (2 return touchdowns), all of which tend to be fluky and inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Sam Darnold is going to have growing pains as a rookie and the rest of their roster has significant problems, especially at edge rusher and on the offensive line.

The Jets also open the season in a really tough spot, opening on Monday night week 1 and then being scheduled for Thursday night week 3, meaning they have to play 3 games in 11 days. Teams typically struggle before a Thursday night game, as favorites are just 47-66 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2012, but the Jets could be especially flat in this “sandwich” game between a big Monday Night Football win and another game in 4 days.

I wanted to make a bet on the Dolphins against the spread in this game earlier this week, but then it was announced that Josh Sitton needs season ending shoulder injury. The Dolphins’ offensive line looked passable for the first time in years last week thanks to the addition of Sitton this off-season, so that’s a big loss. This line is just 3 points and didn’t move at all for the Sitton news, so I don’t think we’re getting enough line value for a bet against the spread. The money line at +125 is worth a small bet, as this game is close to a toss up, but the Jets could easily win by a field goal because Miami is a mediocre team without Sitton.

Miami Dolphins 24 New York Jets 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: 2018 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

The Titans made the post-season last season, but they were a major disappointment. On paper, they looked like one of the better teams in the AFC, but snuck into the post-season with just 9 wins, despite a 6-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL. They managed to pull the upset in Kansas City in their first playoff game, but made the wise decision to let go of head coach Mike Mularkey regardless of the playoff win. Mularkey’s offensive scheme seemed to hold the Titans’ offensive players back, while new head coach Mike Vrabel brings an innovative young offensive mind with him in ex-Falcons and Rams quarterback coach Matt LaFleur, who will be their offensive coordinator. With a new coaching staff, this team could easily make the leap forward that many were expecting from them last season.

The Dolphins, on the other hand, look like one of the worst teams in the league. They get quarterback Ryan Tannehill back from injury, but lost their best offensive player (Jarvis Landry) and their best defensive player (Ndamukong Suh) this off-season and were not a good team to begin with. They went 6-10 last season and were even worse than that suggests, as their 6 wins came by a combined 47 points, while their 10 losses came by a combined 159 points, giving them a point differential of -112, 29th in the NFL. The Titans enter this game pretty banged up with right tackle Jack Conklin, outside linebacker Harold Landry, and middle linebacker Rashaan Evans out, which is the only reason this isn’t my Pick of the Week, but the Titans should still be favored by at least a field goal in this one and I like their chances of winning fairly easily.

Tennessee Titans 24 Miami Dolphins 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -1

Confidence: High