Eagles

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)

This game is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship, with the Vikings returning to Philadelphia, where they lost 38-7 last year. The common narrative is that both teams have disappointed since then and that seems to be reflected in this line, as the Eagles are just 3 point favorites at home, suggesting that these two teams are about even, but the Eagles are much better positioned coming into this game.

The Vikings rank 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.15%, while the Eagles rank 7th at +2.95%. The Vikings’ secondary has surprisingly struggled and is now without starting cornerback Trae Wayne with a concussion, while their defensive line is not nearly the same with Everson Griffen out. A defense that suffered next to no injuries last season is showing it’s cracks. On offense, their passing game has been potent, but they’ve struggled to run the ball with Dalvin Cook in and out of the lineup with injuries and an offensive line that struggles to block.

The Eagles, meanwhile, haven’t played quite as well as they did last year, but Carson Wentz looks great in his return, which is the most important thing, now going into his 3rd straight start, and they could easily be 3-1 right now, after an overtime loss in Tennessee last week. If the Eagles were 3-1 right now, I think they’d be favored by at least 4.5 points, probably 6 points in this game. Even in a loss, the Eagles played well on the road against a solid team.

The Eagles are not fully healthy with running back Darren Sproles, defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan, safety Rodney McLeod, and defensive end Derek Barnett out, but they weren’t fully healthy last year either. They’ve also gotten running back Jay Ajayi and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back from injury and overall still have one of the best rosters in the NFL. The Vikings are a solid team, but I have this line calculated at Philadelphia -7.5, so we’re getting great line value with the Eagles this week. My one concern with the Eagles is that they have to play the Giants again in 4 days on Thursday Night Football, but this is a much bigger game for them. Without another obvious choice this week, the Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans: 2018 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)

Both of these teams are getting healthier. The Eagles got Carson Wentz back from an ACL tear last week, while his #1 receiver Alshon Jeffery looks likely to make his season debut this week, after off-season shoulder surgery. The Eagles are also getting Jay Ajayi back from a game and a half absence with a back injury, though their defense remains without Timmy Jernigan (out for the first 6 weeks on the PUP) and is now without safety Rodney McLeod with a knee injury, although replacement Corey Graham is experienced and has played well in limited action this season.

The Titans, meanwhile, got left tackle Taylor Lewan back last week from a one game absence with a concussion and his bookend right tackle Jack Conklin will make his season debut this week, after missing the first 3 games of the season recovering from an ACL tear. Lewan and Conklin have been arguably the best offensive tackle duo in the NFL when healthy. Marcus Mariota will also make his first start since week 1, though he did play last week after Blaine Gabbert got concussed.

Mariota might not be 100% with his elbow injury and he has never proven he can play well while hurt, but he should be improved over last week after a full week of practice and even at less than 100% he’s an improvement over Gabbert, especially with his full offensive line in front of him. The Titans’ defense has been strong so far this season, allowing the 6th lowest first down rate at 31.25%. If their offense can take a step forward now that they’re healthier (currently 30th in first down rate at 28.42%), the Titans could easily be a solid team going forward.

As 3.5 point home underdogs, I think we’re getting some line value with the Titans, who are also in a great spot with only a trip to Buffalo on deck. Home underdogs tend to cover before easy road games, going 36-18 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites. The Titans should be completely focused this week, while the Eagles may have one eye on an NFC Championship rematch with the Vikings next week. This isn’t a big play, but the Titans should be able to keep this one close at home.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3.5

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

Last week, the Colts were 5.5 point underdogs in Washington. They ended up winning that game 21-9, and, as a result, they are now only 6.5 point underdogs in Philadelphia, even though the Eagles are significantly more talented than the Redskins and are getting Carson Wentz back from his ACL tear this week. The Colts outplayed a solid Redskins team last week, but the game was closer than the final score. The Redskins won the first down battle 20 to 17 and the Colts only had 3 scoring drives, but they were 3 for 3 converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns, while the Redskins were 0-2 and had to settle for 4 field goal attempts on the day (including a miss).

This line suggests the Colts are only 3.5 points worse than the Eagles, so I think this line is too short. The Colts look better now than they did two weeks ago, with Andrew Luck clearly healthy under center and the emergence of second round rookie linebacker Darius Leonard on defense, but they still have one of the worst rosters outside of the quarterback position in the league, especially with the injuries they currently have: left tackle Anthony Castonzo, defensive tackle Denico Autry, cornerback Quincy Wilson, tight end Jack Doyle, and running back Marlon Mack.

The Eagles aren’t healthy either, with wide receivers Alshon Jeffery and Mike Wallace, running backs Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles, and defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan all sidelined, but getting Wentz back could easily push this team back to their 2017 form in a hurry. They weren’t healthy last season either, with Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks injured, both of whom have returned, but they still were the top team in the NFC, which they should compete to be again in 2018. They should beat a mediocre AFC team by more than a touchdown. If Wentz was a little bit more of a sure thing in his first game back, this would be my Pick of the Week, but there’s enough line value here even if Wentz is at less than his best.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)

The Buccaneers pulled off the biggest upset of week 1, going into New Orleans and beating the reigning NFC South champs by 8 points as 10 point underdogs. How well 35-year-old backup quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick played in the absence of the suspended Jameis Winston was a big surprise, but it wasn’t a surprise that the Buccaneers were able to play the Saints competitively. Despite a tough schedule and despite Winston being out or limited with injury for half of the season, the Buccaneers were still better than their 5-11 record in 2017, going just 2-7 in games decided by 7 points or fewer and finishing 12th in first down rate differential at +1.13%. Before the Winston suspension, I considered the Buccaneers a sleeper in the NFC.

Last week’s win in New Orleans moved this line significantly, with the Eagles going from being 6 point favorites to 3.5 point favorites, which makes the Buccaneers a much less attractive bet. Fitzpatrick is no guarantee to continue playing well, given his age and history of inconsistency, and the Buccaneers are also missing their top-2 cornerbacks with both Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves out with injury.

The Buccaneers also had a negative first down differential last week, despite the win (-2.54%). Their offense (50.00%) played well, but their defense was horrendous (52.54%). Nick Foles and the Eagles’ offense should find it much easier to move the ball this week than in their opener against the Falcons, especially given the Buccaneers’ injuries at cornerback. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers’ offense faces a much tougher test this week against the Eagles’ defense than last week in New Orleans and Fitzpatrick could easily regress. I’m still taking the Buccaneers for pick ‘em purposes, but there’s no line value with them at 3.5, so they’re not worth a bet.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +3.5

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

I will keep this brief because I am doing this late, but you can click on the team name to see a preview of each team. I have the Eagles as my highest ranked team coming into the season and would likely have them favored by 4.5-5 points if they were at full strength. However, they will not have Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, or Nigel Bradham in this game, which obviously hurts. This line is Atlanta -1, which is about where I’d have it, so we aren’t getting any real line value either way. I am taking the Eagles simply because defending champs tend to do well at home in week 1 Thursday Night games, going 9-3 ATS since 2004. I would not recommend betting this game though. I will have the rest of the week 1 picks on Friday and Saturday as usual.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1

Confidence: None

Philadelphia Eagles 2018 NFL Season Preview

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Quarterback

The Eagles went from dead last in the NFC East at 7-9 in 2016 to Super Bowl Champions in 2017, but that shouldn’t have come as a huge surprise. The 2016 Eagles were better than their record suggested, as they finished with a +36 point differential that was better than 5 playoff teams. That was despite the fact that they were without stud offensive lineman Lane Johnson for most of the season with suspension (5-1 in the 6 games he played) and despite their underwhelming passing game, with rookie Carson Wentz throwing to one of the thinner receiving corps in the league. With Johnson returning from suspension, Wentz going into his second season in the league, and an improved receiving corps, a big jump in win total looked likely for them last season so, while they were not an obvious Super Bowl choice, it’s not a surprise that they had a strong season.

What pushed this team from a good team to a great one was their quarterback play. Carson Wentz took a huge statistical step forward in his second season in the league. After completing 62.4% of his passes for an average of 6.23 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions as a rookie, Wentz completed 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.49 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in his second season in the league and he almost doubled his rushing yardage from 150 to 299. Part of his statistical improvement came from having a much improved receiving corps, but there’s no denying Wentz was a vastly improved quarterback from year 1 to year 2. He jumped from 23rd to 5th among quarterbacks on Pro Football Focus and was considered an MVP front runner for most of the year.

Wentz is still only going into his age 26 season, so he could keep getting better, but his development hit a snag when he tore his ACL down the stretch last season. Backup quarterback Nick Foles was still able to guide this team to a Super Bowl victory, but Wentz’s injury could end up having long-term effects if he isn’t able to return at 100% right away and it complicates his development. He could easily have another strong season in 2018, but it could be a few years before he develops into a consistently top level quarterback.

Foles returns to the backup role with Wentz returning and, assuming Wentz is able to start week 1 as planned, Foles will be the first Super Bowl MVP in NFL history to begin the next season on the bench. Foles played incredibly well in both the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl, but he had some bad games late in the season and he’s been inconsistent throughout his career, so Wentz is the obvious choice to remain the starter. The Eagles finished the regular season 8th in first down rate at 35.91%, but were much better with Wentz under center, moving the chains at a 37.53% rate in his 13 starts, as opposed to 28.02% in Foles’ 3 regular season starts. Foles also struggled in their first post-season game.

Given Foles’ inconsistency, it’s a surprise that the Eagles were offered a high 2nd round pick for him in a trade this off-season, after he was available on just a 2-year, 11 million dollar deal as a free agent last off-season. The Eagles ended up turning that offer down because they are in win now mode and know the value of a reliable backup quarterback, even if they expect Wentz to return to form. This is arguably the best quarterback situation in the NFL and both quarterbacks are under contract inexpensively, which has allowed the Eagles to spend significant money at other positions.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

Unlike many Super Bowl winners, the Eagles have a very good chance to repeat. Not only do they get their franchise quarterback back from injury, but they had almost no losses this off-season, with most of their key players already locked up on long-term deals. As important as their quarterback play was last season, this was also probably the best all-around team in the league last season and that allowed them to keep winning down the stretch, even when Foles had some underwhelming starts.

On the other hand, the Eagles have little financial flexibility long-term. They are already well over the 2019 cap, even before re-signing several key players who are scheduled to hit free agency next off-season. Wentz will also be eligible for an extension next off-season as well and will be due a massive increase at some point, assuming he returns to form. The Eagles kept this team together for 2018 and will compete for another Super Bowl, but 2019 might be a different story.

Top wide receiver Alshon Jeffery was scheduled for free agency this off-season, signed from the Bears last off-season on an incentivized one-year deal that ended up paying him 9.75 million, but the Eagles locked him up long-term on a 4-year, 52 million dollar extension late last season. Jeffery only had a 57/789/9 slash line, but he had much better chemistry with Wentz than Foles. In his 13 games with Wentz, he had a 52/732/8 slash line, which extrapolates to 64/901/10 over a 16 game season. Wentz also did not throw a single interception on a target to him all season, on 105 targets. Primarily a deep route runner, he should benefit the most from Wentz’s return.

Jeffery should also benefit from better health of his own. While he played all 16 games, he played through a shoulder injury for most of the season. From 2013-2016, he averaged a 85/1263/7 slash line per 16 games with the Bears. He probably won’t see the 9.1 targets per game he saw with the Bears, as part of a deep receiving corps, but he had 7.5 targets per game last season with Wentz, which is still a fair amount, and he has obvious statistical bounce back potential.

The Eagles also added Torrey Smith last off-season, signing him to a 3-year, 15 million dollar, but he spent most of the year as the third receiver behind Nelson Agholor, who had a mini-breakout year, finishing 18th among wide receivers on Pro Football Focus and posting a 62/768/8 slash line on 95 targets. Agholor’s season comes as a bit of a surprise, as he was one of the worst receivers in the league in his first 2 seasons in the league, finishing dead last among wide receivers on PFF on both seasons, but he was a first rounder in 2015 and finally showed why last season. Converting him into a slot receiver proved to be a smart move, as that’s where he did most of his damage last season. He’s a one year wonder, but he’s also only in his age 25 season, so he could keep getting better.

Tight end Zach Ertz is also a big part of the passing game, with a 74/824/8 slash line on 110 targets last season. A 2nd round pick in 2013, Ertz flashed as a part-time player early in his career with slash lines of 36/469/4 and 58/702/3 in his first two seasons in the league respectively and has averaged a 76/831/5 slash line in the three seasons since. He’s also gotten a positive grade from PFF for his pass catching in all 5 seasons in the league, maxing out as PFF’s 4th ranked pass catching tight end in 2017. He’s not much of a blocker, but he’s only in his age 28 season with no injury history, so he should remain one of the best pass catching tight ends in the league.

The Eagles also added to their receiving corps this off-season, signing veteran wide receiver Mike Wallace to a 1-year deal worth 3 million and using a second round pick on South Dakota State tight end Dallas Goedert. Wallace will replace Torrey Smith, who was sent to Carolina this off-season, following a miserable 2017 season in which he had just a 36/430/2 slash line on 69 targets, finished 115th among 118 eligible wide receivers on PFF, and lost playing time down the stretch to #4 receiver Mack Hollins, a 2017 4th round pick. Owed 5 million non-guaranteed in 2018, the Eagles were going to release Smith for nothing if they couldn’t trade him, so credit them for getting a promising young cornerback in Daryl Worley, even if they had to release Worley a couple months later after an off-the-field incident. Why Carolina wanted Smith at his current salary badly enough to trade anything for him is unclear.

Wallace should be an upgrade on Smith, but that doesn’t mean he won’t face competition from Hollins, who was decent on 282 snaps as a rookie. Wallace has been a capable starting receiver in recent years, but he’s going into his age 32 season and the Eagles didn’t exactly give him a big contract, so he’ll have to earn his role. He had a 52/748/4 slash line with the Ravens last season, but that was on 92 targets as their #1 receiver. He’ll have a much smaller role, albeit on a much better offense, in Philadelphia.

Goedert, meanwhile, will slot in as the #2 tight end. The Eagles have had arguably the deepest tight end group in the league in recent years, with a pair of talented backups in Trey Burton and Brent Celek, but Burton was signed by the Bears on a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal this off-season, while Celek was released, ahead of his age 33 season, in which he would have been owed 4 million. Tight end depth was one of the Eagles’ few needs this off-season and Goedert should have an immediate role. He’s raw, but won’t have to play a huge role and he has a high upside. This is a solid group overall once again, possibly even better with Wallace replacing Smith.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Along with wide receiver, running back was a position of need for the Eagles last off-season, as Ryan Mathews, who spent 2017 out of the league, led the 2016 Eagles with 155 carries. The Eagles added veteran running back LeGarrette Blount in free agency and signed promising undrafted free agent Chris Clement, but their big upgrade at running back didn’t come until mid-season, when they sent a 2018 4th round pick to the Dolphins for Jay Ajayi at the trade deadline.

Ajayi was a 1200+ yard rusher and finished as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked running back in run grade in 2016, but he averaged just 3.37 yards per carry through 7 games with the Dolphins in 2017 and they decided to scapegoat him for their offensive issues by dealing him for cheap, even though he was PFF’s 3rd ranked running back in terms of running grade at that point in the season and averaged 2.77 yards per carry after contact.

On a much better offense with the Eagles, he had a 5.83 yards per carry average. He only had 10 carries per game in 7 regular season games, but that number went up to 14 in the post-season and, with LeGarrette Blount signing with the Lions this off-season, expect his carry total to keep going up. Blount averaged 4.43 yards per carry on 173 carries last season, but Ajayi has a much better upside. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, this could easily be his final season on Philadelphia, but could have a big year as the lead back on a strong offense.

Ajayi’s one weakness is pass catching, as he has just 58 catches in 38 career games, but the Eagles fortunately have Darren Sproles returning from an injury shortened season. He will return to his old passing down role and will also mix in as a change of pace back, after playing just 89 snaps in 3 games last season before tearing his ACL. Sproles averaged 63 catches per season in his previous 7 seasons prior to the injury, but I would expect him to have fewer this season. Not only is he coming off the injury, but he’s also now two years older than his last full season (52 catches) and is going into his age 35 season. Sproles has already announced this will be his final season in the league. Unlike most running backs, Sproles has never topped 100 carries in a season, so he’s fresher than most backs in their mid 30s.

The Eagles also have Corey Clement, a jack of all trades back with 4.34 yards per carry on 74 carries, 10 catches for 123 yards, and 6 total touchdowns as an undrafted rookie. He’ll rotate in both on early downs and on passing downs and he should have more touches than he did as a rookie. Blount leaves behind a significant amount of carries and Clement figures to be second on the team in carries behind Ajayi. This is an improved backfield, even from a year ago, with Sproles returning and Ajayi taking on a larger role.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

Wentz was not the not major injury the Eagles dealt with on the road to the Super Bowl, as they lost several other key players for the season. Probably the biggest loss was left tackle Jason Peters, who went down for the season after 7 starts with a torn ACL. In his absence, the Eagles started Halapoulivaati Vaitai, a second year swing tackle and 2016 5th round pick, but he struggled mightily, finishing 79th among 83 eligible offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus. He was a big downgrade from Peters, who was PFF’s 3rd ranked offensive tackle at the time of his injury. A top-13 offensive tackle on PFF in 6 straight healthy seasons prior to last season, Peters will be a big re-addition for this team, but he’s not a lock to return to form, coming off of a serious injury and going into his age 36 season.

Even with Peters out for the year, this was still one of the best offensive lines in the league. Left guard was a bit of an issue, as week 1 starter Isaac Seumalo struggled mightily and then was benched for veteran Stefen Wisniewski midway through week 3. Wisniewski was decent in 11 starts, but then missed two games down the stretch with injury and his replacement Chance Warmack also struggled. Wisniewski has 94 starts in 7 seasons in the league and is still only in his age 29 season. A consistent capable starter, he should start week 1 this year and the Eagles would benefit from him making all 16 starts if possible.

The rest of this offensive line all played at a Pro-Bowl level, as right tackle Lane Johnson, center Jason Kelce, and right guard Brandon Brooks finished 10th among offensive tackles, 1st among centers, and 3rd among guards on PFF respectively. Johnson has missed 14 games in his career due to two suspensions for performance enhancing drugs, but he’s only missed one other game in 5 seasons in the league and has been a top-17 offensive tackle on PFF in each of the past 4 seasons.

Originally drafted 4th overall in 2013, Johnson was drafted by the Eagles with the idea of playing him at left tackle long-term after Peters, but Peters has played well into his mid 30s and, even with Peters out last season, Johnson stayed at right tackle, with Vaitai playing the blindside instead, even as Vaitai continued to struggle. It’s unclear if that’s their new long-term plan because Johnson has played so well at right tackle or if they just didn’t want to move him mid-season, but Peters is nearing the end and Johnson’s 11.252 million dollar annual salary is much more in line with left tackles than right tackles. He’s the highest paid right tackle by over 1.75 million annually, but would rank just 13th among left tackles. He has the athleticism to play either side, but figures to remain at right tackle for the foreseeable future.

Kelce and Brooks are also highly paid, on deals worth 6.3 million and 8 million annually, but both are bargains at that price. They’ve made 76 starts and 74 starts respectively in the past 5 seasons combined and both have finished in the top-8 at their respective position in 4 of those 5 seasons. Kelce is getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season, but Brooks is only in his age 29 season. Both should at least have another solid season on an offensive line that could easily be even better in 2018, with Peters returning from injury.

Grade: A

Defensive Line

The Eagles also had a strong defense last season, finishing 3rd in first down rate allowed, which carried them down the stretch when Foles was struggling. They were led by their defensive line, which is arguably the deepest and most talented in the entire league. They rotated in 7 different linemen who all topped 400 snaps, but their two most dominant defensive linemen were defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and defensive end Brandon Graham, who formed a devastating inside/outside combination.

Cox and Graham finished 6th and 4th among defensive tackles and 4-3 defensive ends respectively on Pro Football Focus. Both only see about two thirds of the snaps on a deep defensive line, but that keeps them really fresh and they ranked 3rd and 9th respectively at their position in pass rush productivity on a per pass rush snap basis in 2017, while also playing well against the run.

Both are far from one year wonders too, as Cox has ranked in the top-6 at his position on PFF in 4 straight seasons, while Graham has ranked in the top-8 among 4-3 defensive ends on PFF for 4 straight seasons, with back-to-back seasons in the top-4. Cox is still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season and, while Graham is now going into his age 30 season, he shouldn’t have that much of a drop off in 2018, if he has any.

Cox is locked up long-term on a 6-year, 102.6 million dollar deal that he is well worth, while Graham has been an absolute steal on a 4-year, 26 million deal, though he now enters the final year and is owed a significant increase that the Eagles may not be willing to give him, given his age and their cap situation. This could be his final season in Philadelphia, but it should be another good one unless he sees a significant drop off in his play.

Vinny Curry also played a big role on this defensive line last season, finishing with the third most snaps and starting all 16 games opposite Graham. He only had 3 sacks, but added 17 hits and 27 hurries on 366 pass rush snaps (13th among 4-3 defensive ends in pass rush productivity), played the run well, and finished 10th among 4-3 defensive ends on PFF. Owed 9 million non-guaranteed in his age 30 season, Curry was let go by the Eagles this off-season, but only because they traded a late round pick to the Seahawks for replacement Michael Bennett, who is set to make 5.65 million in 2018.

Bennett figures to take over as the starter opposite Graham and saves them a little bit of money, but he could easily be a downgrade and he too is also getting up there in age, going into his age 33 season. Bennett finished in the top-7 among 4-3 defensive ends in 6 straight seasons from 2011-2016, but he fell to around middle of the pack in 2017 and his best days are likely behind him. He also has off-the-field concerns and had issues with his coaching staff at the end of his time in Seattle. If the Seahawks could not find a taker for his contract, they likely would have just released him, even though he was just starting an extension that the Seahawks already paid him a 8 million dollar signing bonus on last off-season.

Reserve defensive ends Chris Long and Derek Barnett also played a role last season, with 496 snaps and 424 snaps respectively, and both earned positive grades. Long is going into his age 33 season and is unlikely to see a bigger role in 2018, but Barnett is a 2018 1st round pick who could easily play more snaps at a higher level in his second season in the league. The Eagles had more pass rush depth outside than inside last season, so they lined the 6-2 265 pound Graham up inside in passing situations about a third of the time. They still have more pass rush depth outside than inside this season, so I would expect them to continue using 3 defensive ends in passing situations with some regularity. Not only can Graham line up inside, but the 6-4 274 pound Bennett also has some experience as an inside rusher, playing about 40% of his pass rush snaps there last season.

Timmy Jernigan will be the primary inside rusher with Fletcher Cox in passing situations. Acquired from the Ravens for just a swap of third round picks last off-season, Jernigan was PFF’s 17th ranked defensive tackle on 493 snaps in 2017 and was given a 4-year, 48 million dollar extension late in the season, keeping one of their few key free-agents-to-be off the open market. Despite being acquired so inexpensively last season, Jernigan is not a one-year wonder. While last season was the best of his career, the 2014 2nd round pick earned positive grades in each of his first 3 seasons in the league with the Ravens and started 28 of the 43 games he played in those 3 seasons.

They don’t have another good pass rushing defensive tackle though, which is where their defensive end depth will come in handy. Beau Allen was their 3rd defensive tackle with 422 snaps last season, but he didn’t provide much pass rush and he signed with the Buccaneers as a free agent this off-season. The Eagles replaced him with Haloti Ngata, a 12-year veteran. Ngata is coming off of a lost year due to a torn biceps and is only a two down player in his age 34 season, but that’s all the Eagles will need him to be on a deep defensive line.

Grade: A

Linebackers

One key player the Eagles had that did hit the open market as a free agent this off-season was starting outside linebacker Nigel Bradham. Bradham earned a positive grade from Pro Football Focus and made 15 starts, but he was not expected to be brought back. The Eagles had every down linebacker Jordan Hicks returning from injury and Mychal Kendricks, who played well in Hicks’ absence last season, could also play every down. Instead, the Eagles kept Bradham on a 5-year, 40 million dollar deal and sent Kendricks packing, rather than paying him 6 million non-guaranteed.

Kendricks was PFF’s 3rd ranked 4-3 outside linebacker last season, but he’s been inconsistent in the past and is much better against the run than he is in coverage, so the Eagles might have made the correct choice. Bradham’s contract is a steep increase on his previous 2-year, 7 million dollar deal, but he signed that deal after a miserable final year in Buffalo, when he finished dead last out of 35 eligible 4-3 outside linebackers. In two seasons in Philadelphia, where he reunited with ex-defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, Bradham has been much better, earning positive grades in both seasons and finishing 5th among 4-3 outside linebackers in 2016.

A 2012 4th round pick, Bradham has made 56 starts in the past 4 seasons combined and has earned a positive grade in all 3 seasons he’s played with Schwartz as his coordinator. The contract the Eagles gave him is also pretty low risk, as it guarantees just 6 million in the first year and the Eagles can get out of it at any point after 2018. Still in the prime of his career in his age 29 season, I’d expect another strong year from him, though he will serve a suspension week 1 for an off-the-field incident from 2016.

Hicks returns to his every down role at middle linebacker, after tearing his achilles last October. A 3rd round pick in 2015, Hicks has played well when on the field in his career, but he had his rookie year ended by a torn pectoral and has played in just 31 of 48 games, so he hasn’t been the most durable player. Hicks was PFF’s 5th ranked middle linebacker in 2016 in his one healthy season and is still only in his age 26 season, but he’s a bit of a question mark going forward health wise. He’s one of the players the Eagles have on an expiring contract and I wouldn’t expect them to address his contract until they see him healthy on the field again. If he’s healthy, he’s one of the players they have to keep, as they lack depth at linebacker.

With Hicks out last season, Najee Goode, Joe Walker, and Dannell Ellerbe all struggled in stints as the 3rd linebacker. The Eagles signed veteran journeyman Paul Worrilow this off-season to hopefully give them a boost, but he tore his ACL this off-season and is out for the year. With Goode and Ellerbe gone and Walker likely locked in as the backup at middle linebacker, the Eagles are expected to start 2017 5th round pick Nathan Gerry, who played just 20 snaps as a rookie, as the 3rd linebacker in base packages. It’s a weakness in an otherwise strong group, but fortunately it’s just a base package role that won’t even play half of the snaps.

Grade: B

Secondary

Cornerback is another area where the Eagles were significantly improved from 2016 to 2017. After having one of the thinnest cornerback groups in the NFL in 2016, the Eagles added veteran Patrick Robinson in free agency, used a 2nd and a 3rd round pick on cornerbacks Sidney Jones and Rasul Douglas, and then traded a 2018 3rd round pick and receiver Jordan Matthews to the Bills for Ronald Darby.

Those four cornerbacks had mixed results, but the Eagles also got a much better year from second year cornerback Jalen Mills and overall had a solid group of cornerbacks. A 7th round pick in 2016, Mills went from dead last among 120 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus on 661 snaps as a rookie, playing largely out of desperation, to finishing around middle of the pack (71st) and making 15 starts in a much stronger cornerback group in 2017.

Mills wasn’t the biggest surprise in this secondary though, as Robinson, a journeyman cornerback who signed for the minimum on a one-year deal last off-season, finished as PFF’s 4th ranked cornerback on 710 snaps, primarily playing on the slot (496 snaps). He signed with the Saints for 5 million annually this off-season, which the cap strapped Eagles could not justify offering to an inconsistent veteran slot cornerback who is going into his age 31 season. He’s by far the Eagles’ biggest free agent loss of the off-season.

Despite that, this is still a solid group, with both Ronald Darby and Sidney Jones returning to form after injury plagued 2017 seasons. Darby suffered an ankle injury week 1 and missed the next 8 games, but he was PFF’s 16th ranked cornerback over the final 7 weeks of the season after returning and made a big impact during their playoff run. A 2nd round pick in 2015, Darby has earned a positive grade in all 3 seasons in the league, topping out as PFF’s 7th ranked cornerback as a rookie. Still only going into his age 24 season, he has obvious upside and can be a #1 cornerback if he can stay healthy. He may play himself out of the Eagles’ price range as a free agent next off-season.

Jones, on the other hand, came into the league injured, tearing his achilles working out before the draft, which dropped him from a possible top-15 pick into the middle of the 2nd round. That’s a serious injury, but he had a good recovery, even returning to play 27 snaps in the Eagles’ week 17 game, before being deactivated for the playoffs. He should be close to 100% for week 1 and, while he’s unproven and could take some “rookie” lumps, he has obvious upside. He’ll at least have a role in the slot, replacing Robinson, and could compete with Mills for the other outside job in base packages. Douglas, who played 423 nondescript snaps as a 3rd round rookie, and this year’s 4th round pick Avonte Maddox, will likely be reserves.

At safety, the Eagles bring back the starting duo of Rodney McLeod and Malcolm Jenkins for the third straight season. Both players earned positive grades from PFF last season and both are proven starters. Jenkins is a 9-year veteran with 127 career starts and 4 straight seasons with a positive grade from PFF, while McLeod is a 6-year veteran with 78 career starts and 3 straight seasons with a positive grade from PFF. Jenkins is getting up there in age, going into his age 31 season, and has been on the decline a little since finishing #1 among safeties in 2015 (19th in 2017), but he could easily have another couple seasons left in the tank as a solid starter. McLeod, meanwhile, is in the prime of his career in his age 28 season. This is a solid secondary, even without Robinson.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Eagles didn’t lose much this off-season and the players they did lose they did a good job of replacing. They could also be healthier, with key players like Carson Wentz, Jason Peters, Darren Sproles, Jordan Hicks, and Ronald Darby missing big chunks of last season. Given that, the Eagles have as good of a chance of repeating as any team in recent memory. On paper, this is arguably the most talented and complete roster in the NFL.  I will have an official prediction later in the off-season.

Final Prediction: The Eagles enter the season a little shorthanded with Carson Wentz and Alshon Jeffery still recovering from injuries and Nigel Bradham serving a one game suspension, but they are still the most talented team in the league and should push for another Super Bowl appearance, even in a loaded NFC.

Prediction: 13-3 1st in NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots: Super Bowl LII Bowl Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) vs. New England Patriots (15-3) in Super Bowl LII

Opposing quarterbacks never actually share the field in an NFL game, but the matchup between quarterbacks is usually the most discussed one in an NFL game and the Super Bowl is no different. This year, we have a very unlikely quarterback matchup, for a number of reasons. On one side, the Eagles will start Nick Foles, who no one would have expected to be starting in this game before the season, making just his 6th start of the season after taking over for Carson Wentz when Wentz tore his ACL back in week 14.

On the other side, is Tom Brady, who is in his 8th Super Bowl. Despite his history, Brady playing in this game again at age 40 is highly unlikely when you consider the history of the game, as Brady continued to defy the odds and father time as the likely league MVP in 2017. He led the league in passing yards and the Patriots once again finished with the best record in the AFC and won a pair of home playoff games. With a solid passing day, Tom Brady could become the first quarterback in NFL history with 10,000 career post-season passing yards. Nick Foles doesn’t have 10,000 career regular season passing yards. This will be Nick Foles’ 4th career post-season start. It will be Brady’s 37th. To say this is a mismatch would be an understatement.

Despite all that, Nick Foles is ironically the one who ranks 3rd all-time in single season quarterback rating, posting a 119.2 mark in 10 starts in Chip Kelly’s system back in 2013 (Brady’s best season, 2007, only ranks 4th at 117.2). The problem for Foles is he’s never done anything like that in any other season. Outside of 2013, he’s completed just 58.9% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 34 touchdowns, and 27 interceptions, which are very much backup numbers.

After an underwhelming season as the Eagles’ starting quarterback in 2014, he was sent to the Rams for Sam Bradford. In 2015, with the Rams, he struggled mightily before being benched for Case Keenum and eventually released the following off-season, after the Rams moved up to #1 overall to draft Jared Goff. As a free agent in each of the following two off-seasons, Foles had to settle for backup work in Kansas City and then back in Philadelphia this season, but, when Wentz went down, he was thrown into the fire as the starter late in the season for a team in control of its own destiny to the #1 seed in the NFC.

Foles hasn’t lost a meaningful game since becoming the starter, as the Eagles also were the #1 seed and won two home playoff games, but Foles has been a mixed bag in 5 starts. Against the Raiders and in limited action in a meaningless week 17 game against the Cowboys, he looked like the quarterback who was released by the Rams. Against the Giants and the Falcons, he looked like a competent starter. And then last week, out of nowhere, Foles had his best game since the 2013 season, completing 26 of 33 for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns against one of the best defenses in the league in a shocking 38-7 victory over the favored Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship.

If Foles does that again, the Eagles will win this game by double digits, but the likelihood of that doesn’t seem high, especially against a New England team that is well coached and has two weeks to study him. Outside of the quarterback position, the Eagles have a better roster with obvious advantages on both the offensive and defensive lines, but the Patriots have the obvious experience, coaching, and quarterback advantage and a strong roster as well. I like how this line has dropped to 4.5 after the Eagles’ win over the Vikings last week and the Patriots’ near loss to the Jaguars. Last week, this line probably would have been about 7.5, and I think dropping this line below 6 is an overreaction to a single week of play. The Patriots are my pick and are worth a small bet against the spread.

New England Patriots 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: New England -4.5

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 NFC Championship Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)

I am kicking myself for not betting on the Eagles as 3-point home underdogs last week. I knew the Eagles had a great chance to cover and even win straight up if the Falcons played like they had all season, but was hesitant to bet on the Eagles because of the possibility that the Falcons would start to click and play like they did last season, when they made the Super Bowl with essentially the same core of the team. The Falcons never really found their Super Bowl form all season and thus were eliminated in Philadelphia by the final score of 15-10.

The Eagles will try to follow the same formula this week, hiding Nick Foles with their defense and running game. Even without Carson Wentz, the Eagles still have a lot of talent on this roster. Because of their supporting cast, I picked the Eagles to get a first round bye before the season started and I wasn’t even completely sold on Wentz at the time. Given that, I wouldn’t be shocked if they were able to advance to the Super Bowl with Nick Foles, especially since they are at home, where their top level defense has allowed just 13.00 points per game this season. The Eagles get a tougher opponent this week, as the Vikings are a step up in class from the Falcons, so I’m not that excited to take the Eagles as 3-point underdogs, but I do think we are getting some line value with Philadelphia.

Outside of the quarterback position, I have these two teams about even and, while the Vikings have the edge under center, I don’t think Keenum has enough of an advantage over Foles to justify the Vikings being favored by a field goal on the road. Keenum has been impressive this season, but he hasn’t had to play in a lot of tough situations and could struggle on the road against a tough Philadelphia defense. He’s also coming off of a relatively weak performance in the wild card round and was really saved by that miraculous play at the end. I’m not that confident in the Eagles unless you can still get +3.5, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Minnesota Vikings 17 Philadelphia Eagles 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Low

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 NFC Divisional Round Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week and I have good arguments for both sides. On one hand, while the Eagles are obviously not the same team without Carson Wentz, they still have a strong supporting cast, including a top level defense, and they are at home, where they’ve had a ton of success this season, especially defensively (13.4 points per game allowed at home). Because of their supporting cast, I picked the Eagles to get a first round bye before the season started and I wasn’t even completely sold on Wentz at the time.

They have a ton of talent on this roster and are above average at every position except quarterback. Casual bettors and fans get fixated on the quarterback position and don’t think Foles has a shot to win a playoff game, betting the Falcons heavily as 3-point road favorites, but even worse quarterbacks like Tim Tebow and TJ Yates have won home playoff games in recent years and they did so with less of a supporting cast than Foles has.

The Eagles also get a fairly easy matchup in this playoff game, as the Falcons finished the regular season 11th in point differential at +38 and 11th in first down rate differential at +1.28%, both of which are 7th among the 8 remaining playoff teams, only ahead of the Titans. The Falcons actually have just 3 road wins by more than a field goal this season, beating the Bears, Lions, and Jets by 6 points, 4 points, and 5 points respectively and in all 3 games the opposing team had the ball with an opportunity to win on their final drive, including drives that went down to the goal line against the Bears and Lions. About 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so the Eagles have a decent chance to cover or push even if they can’t win outright.

On the other hand, the Falcons are significantly more talented than they’ve played this season. They’ve underperformed and they are not nearly as well coached as they were last season with Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator, but they still have the same core as last season’s Super Bowl team and they may have turned a corner following their 26-13 win in Los Angeles over the Rams last week, even if the Falcons did get some help from fluky special teams fumbles.

The Eagles had a relatively easy regular season schedule and didn’t play a single game against any of the remaining other 7 playoff teams, so, if the Falcons can play like they can, it shouldn’t be too hard for them to win by at least a field goal in this one, but that’s far from a sure thing. I’m actually taking the Eagles, mostly to be contrarian and fade the public, but this is a no confidence pick. In fact, I think this one has a very good chance to be a push.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: None

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 Week 17 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-2)

The Eagles have the #1 seed in the NFC locked up and are a prime candidate to rest starters in week 17. The oddsmakers seem to think they will, listing them as 3-point home underdogs here at home against the Cowboys, but I am not so sure. Nick Foles has only made 2 starts in relief of Carson Wentz so far and looked pretty shaky in the last one, so it makes sense that they would want him to get more live reps with the first team offense before the playoffs, especially since they have next week off anyway. Foles has already said he is preparing to start this week. They may rest some stars on defense, but they still need to have 46 players active on gameday, so they can’t rest everyone.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are pretty banged up and will be without left tackle Tyron Smith, defensive tackle David Irving, and possibly wide receiver Dez Bryant in a game that’s also meaningless for them, after they were eliminated from playoff contention in last week’s home loss to the Seahawks. All that being said, I would not recommend betting on the Eagles because they could pull their starters after a couple series and turn the team over to 3rd string quarterback Nate Sudfeld, a 2016 6th round pick who has never thrown a pass in a game. If I knew they wouldn’t, this would be an easy bet, but I can’t be confident with the uncertainty.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: Low