Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 Week 17 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (7-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)

The Cowboys pulled off an upset win over the Buccaneers last week, but that puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams cover at just a 43.6% rate as underdogs of four or more after an upset win as underdogs of four points or more. The Cowboys also lost the first down rate battle by 9.40% and the yards per play battle by 0.21 in that game, which is much more predictive of future winning than final scores are. On the season, the Cowboys have a first down rate differential of -3.22% (28th in the NFL) and a yards per play differential of -0.72% (27th in the NFL). Meanwhile, their opponents’ this week, the Philadelphia Eagles, rank 6th in first down rate differential at +2.31% and 4th in yards per play differential at +0.87.

The Eagles are missing their starting quarterback Jalen Hurts due to a concussion in this game, his first absence of the season, but they are arguably still the healthier team, as the Cowboys are missing at least seven week one starters due to injury, potentially up to nine, depending on the status of questionable linebacker Eric Kendricks and questionable safety Donovan Wilson, who barely practiced this week. The most notable new injury for the Cowboys is stud wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, who will miss his first game of the season this week. The Eagles, meanwhile, will only be missing a maximum of four week one starters, including Hurts, potentially only three, depending on questionable edge defender Bryce Huff. In terms of SIC Score, the Eagles are at 88.8, while the Cowboys are at 82.4.

With all these injuries taken into account, my roster rankings still have the Eagles 11 points better than the Cowboys, with the Eagles having the edge in every single position group on both sides of the ball. This line, which was -11 on the early line last week, has dropped down to 7, so we’re getting great line value with the Eagles at home in this one. Between that and the bad spot the Cowboys are in, the Eagles look like a great bet this week at -7. I would also bet them at -7.5, but for a smaller amount.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 10

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles: 2024 Week 11 NFL Pick

Washington Commanders (7-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)

Both of these teams have great records and whoever wins this game will be in first place in the NFC East, but the Eagles have been the better of these two teams. While the Commanders have a solid +1.80% first down rate differential and a solid +0.54 yards per play differential, the Eagles have the significant edge in both metrics at +3.61% and +0.95 respectively, and those metrics tend to be much more predictive than win/loss record. 

The Eagles are also playing even better over the past few weeks, on both sides of the ball. While their defense has gotten better as the season has gone on under the leadership of legendary coordinator Vic Fangio, who has significantly improved this unit in his first year on the job, their offense has also gotten better as it has gotten healthier. Wide receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, tight end Dallas Goedert, right tackle Lane Johnson, and left tackle Jordan Mailata are all key players who have missed time with injury this season and all are expected to play in this game together for the first time in a full game since week 1, with Mailata specifically making his return this week after a 4-week absence, a huge re-addition considering he is one of the best players in the league at his position.

With their offense at full strength and their defense getting better every week, the Eagles have a six point edge in my roster rankings and should be favored at home by at least a touchdown. This line is either 3 or 3.5 depending on the sportsbook so, either way, we’re getting significant line value with the Eagles, who are also in a good spot on a short week. Divisional home favorites of 6 points or more are 25-17 ATS on Thursdays historically, as long as both teams are on short rest. It’s hard for interior teams to play on the road on a short week against a superior opponent, even if the two teams are divisional rivals. The Eagles aren’t favored by that many, but they arguably should be, so the logic should apply here. 

The Eagles are also coming off of a blowout win last week and were able to take it easy in the second half, while the Commanders lost a close one to the Steelers, so the Eagles should be better rested going into this game. Teams are 12-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football after a game in which they led by double digits going into the fourth quarter when their opponents lost their previous game by three points or fewer, as long as both teams are on short rest. I locked this one in at 3 because I liked the Eagles a lot at that number, but they’re still bettable at 3.5 if you can’t get 3.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Commanders 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers: 2024 Week 1 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) vs. Green Bay Packers (0-0) in Brazil

The Eagles are favored in this game by 2 points, which might seem like a surprise, considering how these two teams finished last season. While the Packers won seven of their last ten regular season games after a 2-5 start and pulled off a first round upset in the post-season, the Eagles lost five of their last six regular season games after a 10-1 and were upset in the first round. The public seems to not understand why the Eagles are favored, as the majority of the action is on the underdog.

However, the Eagles are much better coached on both sides of the ball this season and hold the overall talent edge in this matchup, possessing significant advantages on the offensive and defensive lines and a slight advantage in the receiving corps, while the Packers only have a slight advantage in the linebacking corps (quarterback, running backs, and secondary are essentially a wash). Given that, this line is actually a little short, as the Eagles are talented enough to be favored by a full field goal in this matchup. On top of that, the better team normally covers in neutral site international games, with favorites going 34-18 ATS all-time. The public may be on the underdog, but it makes perfect sense to me why the Eagles are favored and, with the Eagles only needing to win by a field goal to cover, I like fading the public on this one and putting a small bet on the favorite.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Green Bay Packers 22

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -2

Confidence: Medium

Philadelphia Eagles 2024 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

In 2022, the Eagles were one of the best teams in the league, finishing the regular season 2nd in DVOA and coming up just short in a Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs. In 2023, they got off to a 10-1 start, which might seem like they picked up where they left off, but they were lucky to win many of those games, with seven of their ten wins coming by one score and advanced metrics showing them to be a significantly worse team than the year prior. Sure enough, the Eagles’ luck wore off down the stretch, as they lost five of their final six regular season games and their first round playoff game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a very disappointing final result, given where the Eagles were the year prior. In total, the Eagles were -0.06 in yards per play differential and +0.94% in first down rate differential, while finishing the season 14th in DVOA.

The Eagles’ offense wasn’t the problem in 2023, as they ranked 10th in offensive DVOA, as opposed to 29th in defensive DVOA, but their offensive performance was still a big drop off from 2022, when they ranked 3rd in offensive DVOA. Their personnel didn’t change drastically between the two seasons, as nine of their top-10 in terms of snaps played on offense in 2022 returned for 2023 and eight of them ranked in the top-10 in terms of snaps played on offense again. The Eagles did have more injuries on offense in 2023, going from 4th in adjusted games lost to injury in 2022 to 11th in 2023, but that didn’t have a big effect on their offense overall.

The biggest issues were that the Eagles lost offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to the Colts’ head coaching job and replaced him internally with Brian Johnson and that their quarterback Jalen Hurts regressed, two things that were likely related. In 2022, Hurts completed 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, while rushing for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns on 165 carries (4.61 YPC), but in 2023, those numbers fell to 65.4% completion, 7.17 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, with 605 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on 157 carries (3.85 YPC). 

Hurts has overall been a solid starter in four seasons (51 starts) with the Eagles, since going in the second round in 2020, completing 63.4% of his passes for an average of 7.46 YPA, 67 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions, with 2,503 yards and 41 touchdowns on 524 carries (4.78 YPC), but his 2022 season stands out as an outlier four years into his career and it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever consistently reach those heights. Hurts is still only in his age 26 season and could benefit from new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore being brought in, so I would expect him to be better in 2024 than 2023, but I would also expect him to not be as good as he was in 2022.

Hurts has been pretty durable in four seasons in the league, missing just five games total, while playing in all 17 last season, but his playing style does expose him to more injury risk than most quarterbacks, with all of the extra hits he takes from carrying the ball as much as he does. Because of that, the Eagles have prioritized investing in the backup quarterback spot. Veteran Marcus Mariota left as a free agent this off-season, but the Eagles replaced him by taking a flier on Kenny Pickett.

Pickett has been a major bust as a 2022 first round pick (78.8 QB rating in 24 starts with the Steelers), but he only cost the Eagles a swap of mid round picks and a 1.984 million dollar salary and he is still only going into his age 26 season and could still have untapped upside in his new home. Hurts is still an above average quarterback at the very least and Pickett has upside as the backup, so this is a pretty good quarterback room overall, even if Hurts is unlikely to repeat his MVP caliber 2022 season.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

One concern for this Eagles’ offense in 2024 is that they lost future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce to retirement. Kelce was in his 13th season in the league in 2023, but still played at a high level, finishing with a 80.5 PFF grade in 17 starts, so he won’t be easy to replace. To replace him, the Eagles will likely slide Cam Jurgens inside from right guard to center, which he played extensively at the collegiate level, and then to replace Jurgens, the Eagles will likely plug in 2023 3rd round pick Anthony Steen at right guard.

Jurgens is unlikely to be as good as Kelce, while Steen could be a downgrade from Jurgens, meaning the Eagles could have worse play at two spots on the offensive line in 2024, but both at least have upside. Jurgens went in the second round in 2022 and barely played as a rookie (35 snaps), before taking over the starting job in 2023 from free agent departure Isaac Seumala, the one player from the Eagles top-10 in snaps played on offense in 2022 who wasn’t brought back for 2023. 

Jurgens was decent in 11 starts (six games missed due to injury), with a 63.0 PFF grade last season, and could take a step forward in his third season in the league, now back at a position where he could be more comfortable, given that it was his primary position in college. I would doubt he can be as good as Kelce this season, but he should at least be a solid starter. Steen, meanwhile, only played 71 snaps as a rookie, playing behind Sua Opeta, who struggled with a 53.2 PFF grade in 528 snaps in Jurgens’ absence last season, but Steen entered the league with significant upside and could be a decent starter in his second season in the league, though that’s not a guarantee.

The Eagles also signed Matt Hennessy this off-season and he could potentially start at either center or guard if the combination of Jurgens at center and Steen at right guard doesn’t work out, though Hennessy’s 1-year, 1.75 million dollar contract suggests the Eagles view him primarily as a reserve. Hennessy missed all of last season with injury and the 2020 3rd round pick had previously only started 22 games in three seasons in the league, while consistently being mediocre in pass protection, but 17 of those starts came in 2021, when he excelled as a run blocker with a 88.1 PFF run blocking grade. He has more experience at center than guard (3 starts), but he can play both if needed and, still only in his age 27 season, he’s at least a useful reserve option to have.

The rest of this offensive line remains the same as a year ago, with Jordan Mailata at left tackle, Landon Dickerson at left guard, and Lane Johnson at right tackle. One concern is that Johnson is getting up there in age, now heading into his age 34 season. Johnson hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet and, even if he does decline in 2024, he’s starting from such a high base point that he should at least remain an above average starter, as his 80.9 PFF grade in 2023 was his seventh season above 80 on PFF in 11 seasons in the league, with no seasons lower than 70, but any significant decline from him would be noticeable and negatively affect this offense. Johnson is also a strong candidate to miss time with injury, having missed time in all but two seasons in the league, with 36 total games missed in his career.

Mailata and Dickerson, on the other hand, are much younger. Mailata is in the prime of his career in his age 27 season and also happens to be one of the best left tackles in the league. He was only a 7th round pick in 2018 and didn’t become a starter until 2020, but since then he had had PFF grades of 70.4, 87.4, 76.5, and 84.1, while making 57 total starts in the past four seasons. Given his age, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. Dickerson isn’t as good, but the 2021 2nd round pick has been a solid starter, with PFF grades of 67.3, 67.3, and 70.0 over his three seasons in the league (46 starts) and, still only in his age 26 season, he could have the upside for more in 2024 and beyond. 

The Eagles also added Mehki Becton in free agency this off-season and he figures to be the swing tackle behind Mailata and Johnson. A first round pick in 2020, Becton’s career got off to an impressive start, as he had a 74.4 PFF grade in 13 starts as a rookie, but injuries limited him to just 48 snaps between 2021 and 2022 and he wasn’t nearly as good upon his return in 2023, as he had a 53.2 PFF grade in 16 starts. Becton is still only in his age 25 season, so he was a worthwhile flier and at least has the upside to be a solid starter if Mailata or Johnson miss time with injury. 

Along with Matt Hennessy on the interior, Becton will be one of the Eagles’ top reserves this season, with their only other reserve options being 5th round rookie guard Trevor Keegan and 6th round rookie center Dylan McMahon. This offensive line won’t be as good as a year ago with Jason Kelce retiring and Lane Johnson getting up there in age as well, but they ranked 1st in pass blocking grade on PFF and 3rd in run blocking grade last season, so, even they aren’t as good, this is still an above average unit.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

Behind Jason Kelce, the second most important offensive player the Eagles lost this off-season is running back D’Andre Swift. At first glance, Swift would seem to be a big loss, as he rushed for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns on 229 carries (4.58 YPC) last season, ranking 5th in the NFL in rushing yards, but Swift benefited a lot from running behind one of the best run blocking offensive lines in the league. The Eagles also upgraded on him by signing Saquon Barkley in free agency.

Barkley didn’t come cheap, with his 3-year, 37.75 million dollar deal making him the 4th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary, but, in a way, Barkley is not only a replacement for Swift, but also for Jason Kelce. Swift was an explosive back last season and was useful in passing situations (39/214/1 slash line), but he was not as good in short yardage situations, so the Eagles frequently used Jalen Hurts as their short yardage back, specifically on quarterback sneaks behind Kelce, known as the infamous Tush Push play. With Kelce gone, that play will be a lot more difficult for the Eagles, but Barkley is a much better short yardage back than Swift, while also being explosive and useful in passing situations, so he can make up for the loss of Swift and, at least somewhat, for the loss of Kelce.

Barkley only averages 4.34 YPC and a 42.5% carry success rate on 1,201 carries in six seasons in the league, with 1.15 yards per route run, and he’s missed 25 games due to injury, including 22 over the past four seasons, when he has just 4.01 YPC and a 43.2% carry success rate on 723 carries, with just 0.96 yards per route run, but he’s proven capable of carrying the load, with 20.1 touches per game in his career, and his production is more impressive when you consider that he has spent his career on one of the consistently worst offenses in the league, running behind one of the consistently worst offensive lines in the league. In a much better situation in Philadelphia and still only in his age 27 season, Barkley should see a huge increase in efficiency in his new home.

Barkley will be backed up by Kenneth Gainwell, who averaged 4.33 YPC with 2 touchdowns on 84 carries and 0.81 yards per route run with a 30/183/0 slash line as a pass catcher last season. In total across three seasons in the league, Gainwell has averaged 4.37 YPC on 205 carries, while catching 86 passes for 605 yards and 1 touchdown and averaging 1.01 yards per route run in 49 career games. Barkley will carry the load as a runner and a receiver, but Gainwell will spell Barkley here and there, particularly in obvious passing situations. 

Barkley’s injury history is a concern and, if he misses time, Gainwell will take on a bigger role, but probably wouldn’t carry the load, with the Eagles likely to also mix in 4th round rookie Will Shipley and also possibly Tyrion Davis Price, who came into the league with upside as a 2022 3rd round pick by the 49ers, but who has only seen 40 touches in two seasons in the league. Shipley and Davis-Price have upside, but would almost definitely be significant downgrades from Barkley if he missed significant time with injury, as would Gainwell. Led by free agent acquisition and new feature back Saquon Barkley, the Eagles are in pretty good shape at the running back position, although Barkley’s injury history and their underwhelming depth behind him is a concern.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

Even with quarterback Jalen Hurts regressing and this offense as a whole regressing, the Eagles still got great seasons in 2023 out of their top-2 wide receivers AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, who both surpassed 1,000 yards receiving again for the second straight season, one of three wide receiver duos in the league to both surpass 1,000 yards receiving last season. Brown led the way with a 106/1456/7 slash line, after a 88/1496/11 slash line in 2022. In total, Brown has averaged 2.58 yards per route run in five seasons in the league, including averages of 2.59 and 2.52 over the past two seasons respectively and, still very much in his prime in his age 27 season, Brown should continue giving the Eagles more of the same in 2024.

Smith hasn’t been quite as good, but the 2021 first round pick had a 64/916/5 slash line with 1.77 yards per route run as a rookie and then has followed that up with slash lines of 95/1196/7 and 81/1066/7 on averages of 1.98 yards per route run and 1.79 yards per route run over the past two seasons respectively. Also still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from Smith in 2024 as well. Smith and Brown should remain one of the best wide receiver duos in the league this season.

The issue with this receiving corps last season was everyone else. Notably tight end Dallas Goedert disappointed in a big way. In 2022, Goedert had a 55/702/3 slash line, but in 2023 that fell to 59/592/3, even though he went from playing 12 games to 14 games and saw his targets increase from 69 to 83. On a per target basis, he went from 10.17 yards per target in 2022 to 7.13 yards per target in 2023 and on a per route run basis he went from 1.82 yards per route run in 2022 to 1.35 yards per route run in 2023. 

Last season looks like a fluke when you look at Goedert’s career overall, as he had previously averaged 1.80 yards per route run and 8.79 yards per target in his first five seasons in the league prior to 2023 and, still only in his age 29 season, he has a lot of bounce back potential, which would be great for this offense. He does have a history of injuries though, missing 16 games in six seasons in the league and not playing in every game since his rookie year in 2018. He’ll likely miss more time again in 2024, but chances are he’ll be more effective when on the field than he was a year ago.

Quez Watkins, the Eagles’ third receiver, also took a step back in 2023. He was never that productive, with just a 33/354/3 slash line and 0.88 yards per route run in 2022, but he fell to a 15/142/1 slash line and 0.74 yards per route run in 2023, while the Eagles’ other receivers, Olamide Zaccheaus and Julio Jones, were even worse, averaging 0.53 yards per route run and 0.47 yards per route run respectively. All three of those aforementioned receivers are no longer with the team, but the Eagles aren’t necessarily going to get better play out of their replacements. 

Veteran Parris Campbell, the favorite for the #3 receiver job, only has a career yards per route run average of 1.06 and he’s also injury prone, missing 39 games total in five seasons in the league, while exceeding 12 games played in a season just once, and the Eagles other wide receiver options are 5th and 6th round rookies Ainias Smith and Johnny Wilson, who are both likely to struggle if they have to play significant roles as a rookie. The Eagles don’t have much depth at tight end either, with their backup tight end options being veteran CJ Uzomah, who heads into his age 31 season having averaged 1.01 yards per route run with 192 catches in 106 career games, and Grant Calcaterra, a 2022 6th round pick who has played just 346 snaps in two seasons in the league, while averaging just 0.97 yards per route run. 

This is nothing new for the Eagles though, as their’ #2 tight end the past two seasons has been Jack Stoll, a decent blocker who has played 1,012 snaps between the two seasons, but who has averaged just 0.45 yards per route run. A free agent departure this off-season, Stoll won’t be missed, even in a thin receiving corps. The Eagles have a great top wide receiver duo and could get a bounce back year from Dallas Goedert, but their lack of wide receiver and tight end depth is a significant concern, especially if this top-heavy receiving corps loses one of it’s top-3 options for an extended period of time.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

While the Eagles’ offense took a small step back in 2023, their defense took a big step back and was the primary reason for this team’s disappointing season, going from 3rd in defensive DVOA in 2022 to 29th last season. There were a few reasons for this. For one, unlike on offense, where the personnel was mostly the same from 2022 to 2023, the Eagles’ defense lost five of their top-10 in terms of snaps played last off-season. The Eagles also had significant injury problems on defense last season, with the 29th most adjusted games lost to injury of any team in the league. 

On top of that, much like on offense, a coordinator change was part of the problem, as the Eagles went from Jonathan Gannon, who became the Cardinals head coach, to the underwhelming combination of Sean Desai and Matt Patricia. The coordinator issue was solved this off-season, as the Eagles hired Vic Fangio, one of the most proven defensive coordinators in the league. The Eagles’ defense should also be healthier than a year ago. As a result, the Eagles’ defense should be significantly better than a year ago. 

The Eagles’ personnel is still not at the same level as 2022 though, so I wouldn’t expect them to bounce all the way back. One of the key players the Eagles lost last off-season was interior defender Javon Hargrave, who had a 78.2 PFF grade across 711 snaps in 2022, and this off-season, the Eagles lost another interior defender Fletcher Cox, who retired after a 75.7 PFF grade across 683 snaps in 2023. The Eagles didn’t do anything to replace Cox this off-season and, as a result, will be relying getting bigger roles out of holdovers Jalen Carter (562 snaps), Jordan Davis (519 snaps), Milton Williams (494 snaps), Marlon Tuipulotu (161 snaps), and Moro Ojomo (68 snaps).

Davis and Carter were first round picks in 2022 and 2023 respectively and both should be capable of taking on larger roles. Davis flashed potential with a 71.4 PFF grade across 225 snaps in 2022 and then carried that into a bigger role in 2023, when he had a 70.5 PFF grade. Still only in his age 24 season, Davis has a huge upside and should at least be an above average starter in 2024. Carter, meanwhile, has an even higher upside after a 89.0 PFF grade as a rookie, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 6 sacks, 5 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate. Development isn’t always linear and he might not be as good in 2024 as it was in 2023, especially in a bigger role, but he looks likely to develop into one of the consistently best interior defenders in the league for years to come.

Milton Williams was a 3rd round pick in 2021. He struggled as a rookie, but he has turned into a solid rotational player over the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 72.6 and 69.7. He’s a projection to a larger role, never exceeding 500 snaps played in a season, but he won’t have a huge role unless Davis or Carter miss significant time with injury and, still only going into his age 25 season, he could still have untapped upside. 

Tuipulotu and Ojomo won’t have to play huge roles behind Davis, Carter, and Williams, barring injury, but both will still probably have to play more than they have in the past. Tuipulotu has mostly struggled across 448 total snaps in three seasons in the league since being drafted in the 6th round in 2021, while Ojomo barely played as only a 7th round rookie last season and doesn’t have a high upside. The Eagles will miss Fletcher Cox, but this is still a talented position group.

Grade: A-

Edge Defenders

The Eagles’ team leader in sacks last season was Haason Reddick with 11 and he added 15 hits and a 12.0% pressure rate, while receiving an overall 75.2 PFF grade across 861 snaps, but the Eagles traded him away this off-season, getting back a conditional 2026 3rd round pick from the Jets. Reddick was obviously a big part of this defense, but he was going into his age 30 contract year and the Eagles not only got a valuable pick in return for him, but got out of paying him 15 million this season, which allowed them to sign a younger replacement Bryce Huff in free agency, bringing the ex-Jet in on a 3-year, 51.1 million dollar deal. 

Huff has never played anywhere near the snap count that Reddick played last season, as the 481 snaps Huff played last season were a career high, but he has excelled in limited action over the past two seasons, with 13.5 sacks, 20 hits, and a whopping 20.3% pressure rate in a part-time role. He’s still only going into his age 26 season, so he could have further untapped upside, and the Eagles probably won’t need him to play as much as Reddick did last season, because they also used a third round pick on Jalyx Hunt and will likely get more out of 2023 1st round pick Nolan Smith. Smith only played 187 snaps as a rookie, but has the upside to take a big step forward and play a bigger role in year two in 2024.

With Hunt being added and Smith set to play a bigger role, Josh Sweat also probably won’t play as many snaps as he did last season, when he played 828 snaps opposite Reddick. Sweat wasn’t bad, with a 68.3 PFF grade and 6.5 sacks, 16 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, but he’s been better in the past on smaller snap counts, with PFF grades of 70.2, 76.1, and 86.6 on snap counts of 422, 654, and 587 the three seasons prior to last season. Still only in his age 27 season, Sweat could easily bounce back in a likely smaller role in 2024.

The Eagles also still have Brandon Graham, who has been one of the best edge defenders in the league over the past decade or so, exceeding 80 on PFF in ten of the past twelve seasons, totaling 70 sacks, 91 hits, and a 14.6% pressure rate in 179 games and dominating against the run. That has continued over the past two seasons, when he has PFF grades of 89.8 and 800. However, he has only played 474 snaps and 394 snaps over the past two seasons respectively and, now going into his age 36 season, he shouldn’t play more than those snap counts. Even if he doesn’t, he could still decline significantly, given his age. He could still be a useful rotational player and won’t need to play a big role unless multiple other players miss significant time with injury, but his age is a significant concern. This is overall a very deep position group.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The Eagles’ linebacking corps is the group that has seen the most changes over the past couple off-seasons. TJ Edwards and Kyzir White were a high level duo on their talented 2022 defense, but both left as free agents last off-season. They were replaced last off-season by Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow, who were surprisingly solid with PFF grades of 71.5 and 69.4 on snap counts of 834 and 717 respectively last season, but again both were not retained this off-season. To replace them, the Eagles signed Devin White to a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal and will likely promote Nakobe Dean, a 2023 3rd round pick who played just 38 snaps as a reserve last season, to a starting role for his second season in the league. 

White was the 5th overall pick by the Buccaneers in 2019 and started 75 of 76 games played in five seasons in Tampa Bay, while averaging 64.0 snaps per game, but overall he has not been a good starter. He’s an above average blitzer, but has never finished above 60 on PFF for a season either in coverage grade or in run defense grade, which is a big problem because 86.9% of his career snaps have come against the run or in coverage, a number that is unlikely to change this season. He’s still only in his age 26 season and could theoretically have untapped upside, but he has a long way to go to become a capable every down player and will likely continue struggling in that role in his new home.

Dean has the upside to be a solid starter, but he’s very unproven and could also easily struggle. The Eagles don’t have much of a choice but to give him a chance though, as their other options are 5th round rookie Jeremiah Trotter, and veteran career backups Oren Burks and Zach Baun, who were signed this off-season after playing 967 snaps in six seasons in the league and 664 snaps in four seasons in the league respectively. Overall, this linebacking corps looks like it will be a major liability.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Eagles will probably try to mask their lack of linebacker depth by frequently playing three safeties together in sub packages, with one playing close to the line of scrimmage as a de facto linebacker. The Eagles didn’t bring back veteran Kevin Byard as a free agent, after he had a 73.7 PFF grade in 10 games as a mid-season trade acquisition last season, but the Eagles are still much deeper at safety than linebacker. 

Byard is being replaced by Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, with two seasons over 70, though he has concerningly missed 25 games over the past four seasons, not playing in every game since his rookie season in 2019. Gardner-Johnson is probably the Eagles’ most versatile safety and would most likely be the one to play close to the line of scrimmage in sub packages. 

The Eagles also bring back Reed Blankenship, a 2022 undrafted free agent who flashed potential with a 75.2 PFF grade across 292 snaps as a rookie, before carrying that over into a starting role in 2023, when he had a 73.4 PFF grade across 942 snaps. Also returning is 2023 3rd round pick Sydney Brown, who was decent with a 62.0 PFF grade in 334 snaps as a rookie, showing he could potentially be a future starter. On top of that, the Eagles are expected to move cornerback James Bradberry to safety at least part-time, if not full-time. 

Bradberry started 108 of 109 games played at cornerback in his first seven seasons in the league from 2016-2022, while finishing above 60 in every season, including two seasons above 70, but he fell to a 56.6 PFF grade in 16 starts in 2023, and now heads into his age 31 season, so the position change is likely necessary for him to continue playing a significant role as he gets older and slower. Gardner-Johnson and Blankenship will likely start in base packages, with Bradberry playing a sub package role and Sydney Brown providing great depth in case one of the other three gets hurt.

The reason the Eagles can move Bradberry to safety is because they are much deeper at cornerback than a year ago, getting Avonte Maddox back after an injury plagued 2023 season and adding Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the first and second round of the draft respectively. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Maddox will likely take back his old slot cornerback role, in which he had PFF grades of 72.8 and 71.3 on snap counts of 729 and 457 in 2021 and 2022 respectively, before being limited to 141 snaps in four games last season.

It’s worth noting that Maddox has missed 35 games in six seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2018 and has never played in every game in a season, but, when on the field, he will almost definitely be an upgrade over Bradley Roby, Eli Ricks, Josh Jobe, and Kelee Ringo, who all saw action in Maddox’s absence last season and finished with PFF grades of 59.6, 46.4, 40.8, and 64.5 on snap counts of 344, 301, 240, and 198 respectively. 

Only Ringo, a 2023 4th round pick and the best of the bunch by default last season, was brought back and, though he could develop into a useful player long-term, he is unlikely to see much, if any of a role in 2024 in a much deeper position group than a year ago. The rookies Mitchell and DeJean will compete for a starting job, with Mitchell being the heavy favorite by virtue of where he was drafted, and veteran Darius Slay will remain the other starter, even heading into his age 33 season. 

Slay has definitely shown signs of decline, falling from a 81.3 PFF grade in 2021 to a 73.1 PFF grade in 2022 to a 68.4 PFF grade in 2023, when he also missed five games due to injury, but he could remain a solid starter for at least another season, though at this stage of his career, that’s not a guarantee. This also could easily be his last season in Philadelphia, given his 16.1 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2025 and the young cornerbacks the Eagles have brought in over the past two drafts. The Eagles’ secondary was a liability last year with Slay and Bradberry aging and Avonte Maddox missing significant time, but Maddox should be healthier and the addition of cornerbacks in the first two rounds of the draft gives the Eagles’ cornerback room much needed youth.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Eagles disappointed in 2023, after being one of the best teams in the league in 2022. This season, they’re still unlikely to be as good as 2022, but they should be better than a year ago. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has bounce back potential, especially with a new offensive coordinator, and their offensive supporting cast around him remains solid. Meanwhile, their defense should be healthier and much better coordinated than a year ago and also still has significant talent. With the Cowboys getting significantly weaker this off-season, the Eagles should be considered NFC East favorites and they should have a good chance to win at least a playoff game or two in the overall weak NFC.

Prediction: 13-4, 1st in NFC East

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2023 Week 2 NFL Pick

Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

The Vikings lost at home week 1 to a Buccaneers team that was expected to be mediocre at best coming into this season. The Vikings were favored by 5-6 points in that game depending on when you bet the line, so that loss was a surprise to many people, but it didn’t come out of nowhere. The Vikings finished last season 13-4, but needed an unprecedented 11-0 record in one-score games to do so, which history suggested they wouldn’t come close to repeating in 2023 (0-1 so far this season). 

The Vikings’ point differential last season was just -3 and because of a weak schedule their DVOA was even worse, ranking 27th, both of which are much more predictive year-to-year than winning percentage in one-score games is. On top of that, their roster looks worse going into 2023 than it did a year ago, losing key players like edge defender Za’Darius Smith, interior defender Dalvin Tomlinson, cornerback Patrick Peterson, middle linebacker Eric Kendricks, and feature back Dalvin Cook this off-season, without adding comparable replacements. 

Despite the Vikings’ loss last week, this line has actually moved in their favor since the early line a week ago, with the Vikings going from 7-point underdogs in this game in Philadelphia to now being just 6-point underdogs. The Eagles looked underwhelming in a near loss in New England last week, losing the first down rate and yards per play battle and only prevailing because they won the turnover battle and had a defensive touchdown, which are both very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Additionally, the Eagles will be without talented cornerback James Bradberry, starting safety Reed Blankenship, and starting running back Kenneth Gainwell in this game.

However, the Eagles still had a big DVOA edge over the Vikings in week 1 (17.1% vs. -4.1%), even before you take into account that the Eagles probably faced a tougher opponent than the Vikings did, and even with their injuries the Eagles still have a big roster edge over the Vikings, who have injuries of their own, with center Garrett Bradbury out and left tackle Christian Darrisaw and Marcus Davenport both considered highly questionable on a short week. With all of that considered, my calculated line has the Eagles favored by 12 points, so we’re getting a lot of line value with Philadelphia at only -6. 

My calculated line might sound high, but the Vikings lost by at least 17 points in two of the three games they played against teams who finished with double digit wins last season, including the Eagles, and the Vikings are probably worse this year than they were a year ago, especially with their current injuries. On top of that, the Vikings are in a bad spot this week, traveling on a short week to face a superior non-divisional opponent. Non-divisional road underdogs are just 27-46 ATS on Thursday Night Football all-time when both teams are on short rest. Between that and the line being too short, I like the Eagles a lot this week. If this was a Sunday game, I probably would make it my Pick of the Week, but I don’t like locking in my Pick of the Week this early so I am going to keep this as “just” a high confidence pick. Either way, I don’t expect this one to be close.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: High

Philadelphia Eagles 2023 NFL Season Preview

Quarterback

The Eagles finished the 2020 season with a 4-11-1 record and, with a payroll that made them the 3rd highest paid team in the league in terms of average annual salary, the Eagles looked like they had a long rebuild in front of them. Instead, they have rebuilt this team on the fly, making it back to the post-season the very next season in 2021 and then taking another step forward all the way to a Super Bowl appearance and a narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last season, after a 14-3 regular season in which they secured the NFC’s #1 seed.

How the Eagles have been able to do this is complex, but, understandably, it starts at the quarterback position. Carson Wentz had a disappointing 2020 season, completing just 57.4% of his passes for an average of 6.00 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions, while getting benched for raw rookie Jalen Hurts late in the season, but the Eagles were still able to trade him for a package that included a first round pick, with the Indianapolis Colts still bullish on the former MVP candidate’s upside and bounce back potential. 

The Eagles then chose not to use the 6th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft on a replacement quarterback like Justin Fields or Mac Jones, instead giving the reins to Hurts, even though he struggled in limited action as a passer in his rookie season, completing just 52.0% of his passes for an average of 7.17 YPA, 6 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, and then using the 6th overall pick to trade down, accumulating another first round pick the following year, and then selecting talented wide receiver Devonta Smith with the 10th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

Between the first round pick from the Wentz trade, the extra first rounder they got from moving down from the 6th pick in 2021, and their own first round pick, the Eagles entered the 2022 NFL Draft with a trio of first rounders, one of which they traded for another talented wide AJ Brown, another they traded in a package that got them another first round pick in 2023, and a third they used themselves to select promising defensive player Jordan Davis. In 2023, again armed with multiple first round picks as a result of their trade down the following year, the Eagles then selected another pair of promising defensive prospects, Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith, useful additions for a defense that had a lot of free agents this off-season and, for cap reasons, were unable to keep all of them. 

Of course, none of this would have led to a Super Bowl appearance if the Eagles didn’t end up being right about Jalen Hurts, who has improved remarkably as a passer since struggling as a rookie, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 7.28 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions in 2021 and then 66.5% of his passes for an average of 8.05 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions in 2022, while continuing to be a threat on the ground, accumulating a 5.17 YPC average and 26 touchdowns on 367 career carries. His dual threat ability has led to him receiving overall grades of 80.8 and 85.9 respectively from PFF over the past two seasons. With Hurts still only going into his age 25 season, the sky’s the limit in terms of his upside and, at the very least, he should remain one of the best quarterbacks in the league for years to come.

Unfortunately, it will become tougher for the Eagles to continue surrounding Hurts with talent in the future, with Hurts getting a big raise on a 5-year, 255 million dollar extension ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, making him the 2nd highest paid quarterback in the league in terms of average annual salary. Hurts obviously played at a high level in his own right last season, but a big part of why this team got to where they got to last season was that they also had one of the most talented rosters in the league around the quarterback. 

Injuries are more of a concern for Hurts than most quarterbacks, just because mobile quarterbacks take more hits and, as a result, have more opportunities to get hurt. Hurts might also not age as well as most quarterbacks as athleticism tends to decline quicker than anything, but the Eagles won’t have to worry about that for a long-time and, even as much as he runs, he’s definitely not a guarantee to get hurt every season. The Eagles do seem to want to be prepared for that though, spending above average on a backup quarterback to get Marcus Mariota and his 74 career starts on a 1-year, 5 million dollar deal. 

Mariota hasn’t been great as a starter in his career, with a 89.3 QB rating, but he’s one of the best backups in the league and would give the Eagles at least a capable quarterback for a stretch if Hurts got hurt. Mariota also has somewhat of a similar skill set to Hurts, with the ability to take off and run as well as pass, averaging 5.77 YPC with 17 touchdowns on 349 career carries, though Hurts obviously is by far the more explosive and more talented player, in both aspects of the game. With Hurts being one of the best starters in the league and Mariota being one of the best backups, it’s hard to find problems with this quarterback room, even if the Eagles are paying a lot for it.

Grade: A

Receiving Corps

As I mentioned, wide receivers Devonta Smith and AJ Brown have been acquired using two of the several recent first round picks the Eagles have had and they are a big part of why this team has been able to rebuild in a hurry, becoming one of the best wide receiver duos in the league immediately in their first season together in 2023. Both players exceeded 1,100 yards receiving, one of two wide receiver duos in the league to do so (Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle), and they were even more impressive than that seems, as the Eagles had the 10th fewest pass attempts in the league and Brown and Smith finished 3rd and 18th in the league among wide receivers respectively with 2.59 and 1.98 yards per route run respectively, while receiving overall grades of 88.0 and 81.0 respectively from PFF. 

For Brown, it was nothing new as he has been very efficient in similar run heavy offenses for his entire career, since entering the league as a 2nd round pick in 2019, averaging 2.61 yards per route run and a 73/1184/9 slash line per 17 games in his first three seasons in the league prior to 2022, with PFF grades of 84.0, 90.1, and 84.4 respectively. Still very much in his prime in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from Brown in 2023 and for years to come. Smith, meanwhile, had a 64/916/5 slash line and 1.77 yards per route run as a rookie before taking a step forward statistically in year two in 2022 and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he improved further in year three in 2023. Even if he doesn’t, he should remain one of the best #2 wide receivers in the league and Brown and Smith should remain arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league.

Despite this offense being run heavy and Brown and Smith dominating targets, there was still enough leftover in this passing game for tight end Dallas Goedert to record a 55/702/3 slash line with a 1.82 yards per route run average, even though he missed five games with injury. That was nothing new for Goedert, who also had a 56/830/4 slash line on 76 targets in 15 games in 2021, in his first season in the league as an every down starter, and he impressed as a part-time player early in his career, averaging 1.59 yards per route run in his first three seasons in the league, after going in the 2nd round in 2018, while exceeding 70 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, including two seasons over 80. Still in his prime in his age 28 season, Goedert should continue playing at a similar level and could have his most productive year yet if he can avoid suffering a significant injury like he did last year.

With Brown, Smith, and Goedert all in the same receiving corps on a team that likes to run the ball a lot anyway, there isn’t much need for many other pass catchers, but the Eagles don’t have bad depth at wide receiver. Quez Watkins was their #3 receiver last season and, while he only had a 33/354/1 slash line and 0.80 yards per route run, that was in large part because he only had 51 targets and he had a 43/647/1 slash line and 1.51 yards per route run in a bigger role in 2021, when he received 62 targets. The 2020 6th round pick is an underwhelming option, but he’s not a bad #3 receiver, the Eagles won’t need much out of him, and the Eagles added competition for him, free agent acquisition Olamide Zaccheaus, who could prove to be an upgrade.

Zaccheaus went undrafted in 2019, but he has a decent 1.40 yards per route run average in his four seasons in the league. He’s never gotten a ton of playing time, but he did see a career high 61 targets and a career high 737 snaps last season, which he took for a 40/533/3 slash line and 1.47 yards per route run. He would probably have a smaller role with the Eagles, even if he does win the #3 receiver job, but he’s a decent 3rd option to have at the wide receiver position. The Eagles would obviously miss Devonta Smith or AJ Brown significantly if either missed time with injury, but Watkins and Zaccheaus wouldn’t be bad replacement options if they had to play a larger role in the absence of an injured wide receiver.

At tight end, Jack Stoll remains as the #2 tight end. He averaged just 0.57 yards per route run and had just a 11/123/0 slash line on 14 targets last season, but he played 572 snaps total and was decent as a blocker, which is what they primarily need him to do. Undrafted in 2021, Stoll had a similar season as a rookie, on 331 snaps. The Eagles also have veteran Dan Arnold, who can’t block, but who has a 1.63 yards per route run average for his career as a part-time tight end, and they have 2022 6th round pick Grant Calcaterra, who was decent on 227 snaps as a rookie and could have earned a larger role in year two as a rookie. There won’t be a lot of targets to go around for backup tight ends unless Goedert gets hurt, but they don’t have bad tight end depth either. This is a dominant receiving corps, led by arguably the best top trio of pass catchers in the league.

Grade: A

Running Backs

The Eagles didn’t utilize their running backs in the passing game much last season, as passing down back Kenneth Gainwell only had 29 targets, which he took for a 23/169/0 slash line and 0.88 yards per route run, while lead back Miles Sanders only took 26 targets for a 20/78/0 slash line and 0.29 yards per route run. However, that could be changing this season. Sanders is gone and, while one of his replacements Rashaad Penny likely won’t be much use in the passing game (0.67 yards per route run), the Eagles also added D’Andre Swift from the Lions, who has a career 1.53 yards per route run, and Gainwell still remains as well. All three of those backs could end up having roles on this offense.

Penny figures to be the primary early down back, as long as he’s healthy, but that has not consistently been the case throughout his first five seasons in the league. The 2018 1st round pick has a very impressive 5.69 YPC average for his career, but he’s never exceeded 119 carries in a season, while missing 40 games total in five years in the league. He was a worthwhile flier for the Eagles on a 1-year deal worth just 1.35 million and, if he can stay healthy, he has a lot of upside as an early down back, still only in his age 27 season, but I wouldn’t count on him lasting the whole season.

Swift has early down potential as well, in addition to being a talented pass catcher, averaging 4.62 YPC in three seasons in the league since going in the 2nd round in 2020, but injuries have also been a concern for him, as he’s missed at least three games in each of his three seasons in the league. He’s also a nice addition to this backfield and figures to be useful for the Eagles as long as he stays on the field, but he’s also a strong candidate to miss more time with injury and the Lions probably won’t want to give him too many carries, in order to preserve him for passing downs.

Kenneth Gainwell is probably third on this depth chart now, but he could still find himself with a role, given how injury prone Penny and Swift are. A 5th round pick in 2021, Gainwell was better as a pass catcher as a rookie, with a 33/253/1 slash line on 50 targets and a 1.39 yards per route run average, and he has a 4.39 YPC average on 121 carries in two seasons in the league as well, so he’s not a bad 3rd option, though he’s obviously a projection to a larger role as a ball carrier. 

The Eagles also still have veteran Boston Scott, who has a 4.29 YPC average on 282 carries and a career 1.11 yards per route run average in five seasons in the league, since going in the 6th round in 2018. Depending on injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, he could also find himself with somewhat of a role at some point this season. The Eagles don’t have a true top back in this backfield, but there is a lot of upside, especially if Penny and/or Swift can stay healthier than they’ve been in the past.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

One area where the Eagles are unlikely to be quite as good in 2023 as they were a year ago is on the offensive line (1st in team pass blocking grade on PFF, 5th in team run blocking grade on PFF) and there are several reasons for that. For one, they were among the healthiest offensive lines in the league a year ago, with their expected starting five offensive linemen combining to miss just three starts, and they are unlikely to be that lucky again. The Eagles also won’t be as deep on the offensive line this season, losing starting right guard Isaac Seumalo, who was PFF’s 7th ranked guard with a 75.2 PFF grade in 17 starts last season, as well as Andre Dillard, who only played 37 snaps as a reserve last season, but could have replaced Seumalo if he had been kept. 

Instead, the Eagles will likely replace Seumalo with 2022 2nd round pick Cam Jurgens, who is primarily a center, but who will also likely be their best option at right guard this season, despite only playing 35 snaps as a rookie. The Eagles also used a 3rd round pick in this year’s draft on the versatile Anthony Steen, who could also push to start at right guard, even as a rookie, and they still have useful reserve Jack Driscoll, who has been solid while making 16 starts as a spot starter over the past three seasons (1 at left tackle, 10 at right tackle, and 5 at right guard) since going in the 4th round in 2020. However, the Eagles depth is not what it’s been upfront in recent years.

Making matters worse, the Eagles have a pair of key offensive linemen who are now well over 30 and, as a result, could decline in 2023, with center Jason Kelce going into his age 36 season and right tackle Lane Johnson going into his age 33 season. Kelce could very well be entering the final season of his career in 2023, with Cam Jurgens originally drafted to be a long-term replacement for him, but Kelce still finished with a 88.3 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2022, his 9th season over 70 and his 6th season over 80 in the past 10 seasons, so, even if he does decline this season, he still has a good chance to remain at least an above average starter. However, any noticeable decline from him would have a negative effect on the rest of this offensive line, considering how much they have depended on him for years.

Johnson isn’t quite as old as Kelce and has also had a very impressive career, with 10 seasons over 70 and 6th seasons over 80 on PFF in 10 seasons in the league, but he too could decline noticeably this season and, even if he remains an above average starter, that noticeable decline would also have a negative impact on this offensive line as a whole. Johnson has also had consistent durability issues throughout his career, missing time in each of the past seven seasons, with 31 games total missed over that stretch, including two starts last season, two of the three starts that Eagles starting offensive linemen missed in 2022. He figures to miss at least some time with injury again at some point this season.

Fortunately, the other two starters on this offensive line are both relatively young and in their prime. Left tackle Jordan Mailata went undrafted in 2018 and had actually never played American football before the Eagles gave him a chance, but that chance proved to be worth it, as Mailata became a starter in his third season in the league in 2020 and has made 40 starts in three seasons since, while receiving grades of 70.3, 87.4, and 76.5 respectively from PFF. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect him to continue at least being an above average left tackle for years to come, and his upside is among the best in the NFL. 

Dickerson, meanwhile, was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has received identical 67.3 grades from PFF in each of his first two seasons in the league, doing so on 13 starts as a rookie and then 17 starts in his second season in the league in 2022. Now going into his third season in the league, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Dickerson took a step forward and had the best year yet of his career in 2023. This is still a strong offensive line, but between off-season losses, the fact that they’ll likely have more injuries this year, and the fact that a couple of their best offensive linemen are well over 30 and could decline, I wouldn’t expect this group to be quite as good as a year ago.

Grade: A

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Eagles had a lot of free agents on defense this off-season and, for cap reasons, were unable to retain them all. In fact, of the nine Eagles defenders who played at least 700 snaps in 2022, seven of them hit free agency this off-season, with five of them going elsewhere this off-season. The Eagles didn’t do a bad job of replacing all that lost talent though and, even if regress significantly on defense this season, they are coming off of a year in which they ranked 6th in DVOA, so they have a lot of room to regress and still be an above average unit.

At the interior defender position, both starters Fletcher Cox (712 snaps) and Javon Hargrave (711 snaps) were free agents this off-season. Cox was retained this off-season on a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal, but Hargrave signed with the 49ers, after posting a 78.2 PFF grade last season, while Cox is going into his age 33 season and coming off of a career worst year (56.4 PFF grade), so it’s not a surprise that the Eagles used one of their first round picks on an interior defender for the second straight year, taking Jalen Carter 9th overall, after taking Jordan Davis 13th overall in last year’s draft. 

Davis flashed a lot of potential on 225 rookie year snaps in 13 games (71.4 PFF grade) and figures to have a much bigger role in year two, while Carter is talented enough to make an immediate impact and has the upside to develop into one of the better interior defenders in the league long-term, as does Davis. They will both play significant roles this season, alongside Cox, who is clearly on the decline, going from 6 straight seasons of PFF grades over 80 from 2014-2019, to a 74.1 PFF grade in 2020, a 66.7 PFF grade in 2021, and his career worst year in 2022, especially struggling against the run. He’ll likely play a smaller snap count after exceeding 700 snaps played in 9 of the past 10 seasons and he could benefit from that, but he’s clearly not the player he used to be and could continue struggling.

The Eagles also have 2021 3rd round pick Milton Williams, who struggled with a 49.0 PFF grade on 456 snaps as a rookie, but took a big step forward in year two, receiving a 72.6 PFF grade on 396 snaps. It’s possible Williams stays inconsistent and regresses in year three, but he also could continue playing well in what should be a bigger role, with Cox on the decline and the younger players taking over most of the snap load at this position. There’s plenty of upside here, but a lot of downside as well, if the young players prove they are not ready for bigger snap counts.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Eagles also used a first round pick in this year’s draft on an edge defender, taking Nolan Smith 30th overall, not because the Eagles lost any key players at the edge defender position, but because long-time edge defender Brandon Graham, who still played 474 snaps last season, is now heading into his age 35 season and could be nearing the end. Graham still excelled last season though, with a 89.8 PFF grade, his 9th season over 80 in the past 11 seasons, especially excelling as a pass rusher, with 11 sacks, 5 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate that exceeds even his impressive career 14.7% pressure rate.  

Graham’s performance was especially impressive because, in addition to his age, he was also coming off of a 2021 season in which he missed all but 50 snaps due to a torn achilles. His 2022 snap count was his lowest in a healthy season since 2012 and it could be even lower this season with Smith being added, but the former 2010 first round pick could continue playing at a high level as a rotational player, even if he declines a little and isn’t quite as good as a year ago. 

Graham could also drop off significantly, but the Eagles are pretty well prepared for that with Smith being added to a group that already has Josh Sweat (587 snaps) and Haason Reddick (816 snaps), who received PFF grades of 86.6 and 81.1 respectively last season, while recording 16 sacks, 12 hits, and a 15.2% pressure rate and 11 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate respectively. For Reddick, it was more of the same as his previous two seasons, dating back to the 2017 first round pick’s breakout 2020 campaign, in which he had 12.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate, followed by 11 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate in 2021. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023.

For Sweat, on the other hand, it was a career best year for him, especially as a pass rusher, but he had previously had PFF grades of 70.2 and 76.1 on snap counts of 422 and 654 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, so his strong season didn’t come totally out of nowhere. Still only in his age 26 season, I would expect the 2018 4th round pick to continue being at least an above average edge defender, with the upside to continue playing at the high level he played at last season. 

The Eagles also still have Derek Barnett, another former first round pick (2017) who has played significant snap counts in the past, averaging 649 snaps per season from 2019-2021, and who is still only in his age 27 season, but he has mostly been a middling player, with PFF grades in the 50s and 60s throughout his career, he is coming off of a torn ACL that ended his 2022 season after 12 snaps, and he is mostly still on the roster because his contract makes it hard to move on. He figures to be buried on the depth chart in what figures to be a loaded edge defender group again, with first round pick Nolan Smith added to a group with a top trio that totaled 38 sacks, 26 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in 2022.

Grade: A

Linebackers

The linebacker position is the position where the Eagles lost the most this off-season. Kyzir White and TJ Edwards were both every down players who played 843 snaps and 1,040 snaps respectively and both played well, especially Edwards, who ranked 2nd among off ball linebackers with a 84.8 PFF grade, while White ranked above average at 65.0. Both are no longer with the team and their likely replacements will almost definitely be significant downgrades, with 2022 3rd round pick Nakobe Dean expected to take over a starting role, despite playing just 38 snaps as a rookie, and free agent acquisition Nicholas Morrow being a mediocre option, who has finished below average on PFF in four of five healthy seasons in the league, on an average of 701 snaps per season. 

The Eagles don’t have much in the way of other options though, nor do they have adequate depth. Shaun Bradley was just a 6th round pick in 2020 and has played just 134 defensive snaps thus far in his career. Davion Taylor went in the 3rd round that year, but struggled mightily on 283 total snaps in his first two seasons in the league, before spending his entire third season in the league on the practice squad, not playing a single defensive snap. The Eagles’ linebacking corps figures to be a liability this year, a year after they were a strength.

Grade: C

Secondary

The Eagles also lost both of their starting safeties from last season, but that’s not as big of a deal because Marcus Epps and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson finished with middling grades of 56.3 and 63.9 respectively on PFF. Gardner-Johnson got attention for his league leading six interceptions, but he also gave up a lot of big plays and missed a lot of tackles, so he won’t be missed as much as his interception total would suggest. To replace Epps and Gardner-Johnson, the Eagles signed ex-Steeler Terrell Edmunds and used a 3rd round pick on Illinois’ Sydney Brown, who figures to compete with their top reserves from a year ago, Reed Blankenship and Marcus Epps, for the other starting job opposite Edmunds.

Edmunds was a first round pick by the Steelers in 2018 and he has made 75 starts in five seasons in the league, but he has mostly been a middling starter, finishing above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, while also never exceeding 70.9 in a season. Edmunds should continue being at least a decent starter in 2023, so he shouldn’t be a downgrade from either of the Eagles’ starting safeties last season, and he has the potential to be better than both were a year ago.

At the other safety spot, meanwhile, Blankenship has shown the most potential of the bunch thus far, posting a 75.8 grade on 292 snaps last season, but that’s a really small sample size for a 2022 undrafted free agent, so he’s obviously a projection to a larger role. Wallace, meanwhile, went in the 4th round in 2020, but has finished with grades in the 50s on PFF in all three seasons in the league, on an average of 185 snaps played per season, while the rookie Brown could easily struggle if forced into a significant rookie year role. One of the Eagles’ safety spots could be a liability, but that wouldn’t be a big difference from a year ago.

At cornerback, the Eagles kept all of their key players from a year ago, even though their top two cornerbacks James Bradberry and Darius Slay both could have left the team this off-season, with the former being re-signed as a free agent on a 3-year, 38 million dollar deal and the latter nearly being a cap casualty at a 17.5 million dollar scheduled salary, before agreeing to a long-term 3-year, 42 million dollar extension to lower his cap hit. Bradberry and Slay posted grades of 74.1 and 73.1 respectively on PFF, but they are going into their age 30 and age 32 seasons respectively, so there’s some potential for decline.

For Bradberry, it was also only the 2nd season in seven seasons in the league in which he has surpassed 70 on PFF. He’s started 108 of 109 games played in those seven seasons, while exceeding 60 on PFF every year, but he hasn’t consistently shown a higher level of play. Between that and his age, I wouldn’t expect him to be as good again in 2023, though he should remain at least a capable starter, barring an unexpected massive decline. Slay, meanwhile, has exceeded 70 on PFF in 7 of the past 9 seasons, with 3 seasons over 80, including most recently a 2021 season in which he had a 81.3 grade, but he is a couple years older than Bradberry, so the potential for an aged related decline is more likely. Either way, it seems unlikely that both players will be as good as they were a year ago again in 2023, but they should still be a solid starting duo.

The Eagles also still have Avonte Maddox, who missed 8 games with injury and was limited to only 457 snaps as the #3 cornerback, but who posted an impressive 71.3 PFF grade. The 2018 4th round pick was inconsistent early in his career, but that was in part because he kept moving back and forth from slot cornerback to safety and, over the past two seasons as purely a slot cornerback, he has exceeded 70 on PFF in back-to-back seasons, doing so on 729 snaps in 2021. Only in his age 27 season, he should be able to have a similar season in 2023, assuming he can stay healthy this time around.

In Maddox’s absence, Josiah Scott struggled with a 58.4 PFF grade on 390 snaps, but the Eagles did fortify their depth this off-season by signing former Cleveland Browns cornerback Greedy Williams. Williams’ 1-year, 1.35 million dollar deal is only a flier, but it could be a good one, as the 2019 2nd round pick has shown flashes, but has missed 27 games with injury in four seasons in the league and, as a result, has failed to develop, finishing above 60 on PFF just once. 

In the final year of his rookie deal in 2022, Williams was limited to just 105 snaps as a reserve and that’s what he figures to be in Philadelphia, barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he’s only going into his age 26 season and could have some untapped potential if he can finally stay healthy. This secondary might not be quite as good as a year ago with Slay and Bradbury aging, but this should still remain a solid unit.

Grade: B

Conclusion

There are reasons to expect the Eagles not to be as good as a year ago, as they lost significant talent on defense and are unlikely to have the same unlikely luck as they had on offense a year ago, when they had the 4th fewest offensive adjusted games lost to injury. However, they were 14-1 last season before Jalen Hurts got injured, so, even if they regress, they are regressing from a very high point, and their conference competition has gotten even weaker this off-season, so the Eagles should have a pretty easy path to another high win total and multiple playoff wins. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 14-3, 1st in NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Super Bowl LVII Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (16-3) in Super Bowl LVII

The Chiefs have the slight edge in weighted DVOA over the Eagles entering this game (34.4% vs. 28.9%), but the Chiefs were also the healthier team for most of this team, averaging a SIC score that was about two points higher than the Eagles throughout the year, while in this game, the Eagles are the healthier team, possessing an edge of about two points in SIC score, in large part due to questions around the health of quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. That’s enough to nullify the Chiefs slight edge in weighted DVOA, but I would still take the Chiefs for pick ‘em purposes as small underdogs at +1.5. 

My numbers have this game about as close to even as you can get, with the Chiefs possessing the slight edge in terms of likelihood of victory. This line is so small though and, if this were a regular game, I would not recommend any bet, and I wouldn’t recommend an against the spread bet either way, but for the Super Bowl, a small bet on the Chiefs as small money line underdogs is appropriate, as the Chiefs should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game.

Kansas City Chiefs 30 Philadelphia Eagles 29 Upet Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Kansas CIty +1.5

Confidence: Low

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2022 Week 16 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (13-1) at Dallas Cowboys (10-4)

The Eagles have lost quarterback and likely MVP favorite Jalen Hurts for this game with injury, but all hope is not lost in this critical divisional battle in Dallas, for several reasons. For one, the Eagles are far more than just Jalen Hurts. As well as Hurts has played, this team is 13-1, ranks 1st in point differential (+143), and 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency (+6.29), and they could not have done that without a strong supporting cast. In fact, in terms of my roster rankings, the Eagles actually have the most non-quarterback talent of any team in the league.

The Eagles’ talented supporting cast is in large part due to the fact that, even with Hurts out, the Eagles are still one of the healthier teams in the league, with 20 of their expected 22 starters on offense and defense playing this week, including talented tight end Dallas Goedert, who is notably making his return from a 5-game absence this week. Given how late in the season it is, that’s remarkably healthy. The Eagles also have one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league in Gardner Minshew, who is a better option than several other regular starters around the league. 

Between having a starting caliber backup and a dominant supporting cast, the Eagles should still have more than enough talent to at least compete with the Cowboys in this game, ranking 3rd in the NFL in my roster rankings even with Hurts out, actually ahead of the Cowboys, who rank 7th in my roster rankings, as well as ranking 9th in schedule adjusted efficiency (+3.17). The Eagles are also more likely to play harder in this game than the Cowboys, as good teams tend to do when forced to play with a backup quarterback. 

The Cowboys, meanwhile, will have another game four days after this one on Thursday Night Football, a spot in which favorites cover at just a 43.2% rate, and they may relax a little bit against a backup quarterback, which they can’t afford to do, given how talented the rest of the Eagles’ roster is. Despite that, the Cowboys are 4.5-point favorites in this game, a pretty high number, given that about 3 out of 10 games are decided by four points or fewer. My calculated line actually has this as a toss up, so I love the value we’re getting with the Eagles, who still have a great chance to win and pull the upset even with Minshew. The Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Dallas Cowboys 23 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears: 2022 Week 15 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) at Chicago Bears (3-10)

The Eagles lead the league with a +14 turnover margin, which is not a predictive stat week-to-week. That would normally make them overrated, but they also rank 3rd in schedule adjusted efficiency, which is predictive, and they have the best team in my roster rankings, so the turnover margin is not the only reason they are winning games. The Bears, meanwhile, rank dead last in schedule adjusted efficiency, while they have a better offense now than they had earlier this season with Justin Fields improving as the season goes on, they’re also without their two best wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Chase Claypool and their defense has been horrendous since trading Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn and losing Eddie Jackson to injury. 

Overall, this is a matchup between one of the best and one of the worst teams in the league, so, even with this line at 8.5, the Eagles are still undervalued this week. They have seven double digit wins this season, a trend that dates back to last season when they also had seven, even though they weren’t as talented as they are this season. The Eagles are in kind of a bad spot with a much tougher game against the Cowboys on deck, but I think this line already prices that in somewhat and, even still, the Eagles are significantly undervalued. Without another good option this week, the Eagles are my Pick of the Week.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -8.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2022 Week 14 NFL Pick

Philadelphia Eagles (11-1) at New York Giants (7-4-1)

The Giants are 7-4-1, but that is a misleading record, as all seven wins have come by one score, with just two coming against teams that are currently better than 5-8. Meanwhile, all four of their losses have come by 7 points or more, which is relevant with this line favoring the Eagles by 7. As a result of their close margins of victory and bigger margins of defeat, the Giants have just a -7 point differential, despite a relatively easy schedule, leading to them ranking just 25th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 4 points below average. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 4th in schedule adjusted efficiency, about 6 points above average and 10 points above the Giants. 

The Eagles also frequently win by margins that would at least push this 7-point spread, with 8 wins by 7 points or more, a trend that actually goes back to last season, when they had 7 such victories, even when they weren’t as good as they are this season. The Giants will also be without a pair of key defenders this week, missing top cornerback Adoree Jackson and stud interior defender Leonard Williams, while the Eagles are relatively close to full strength for how late in the season it is. My roster rankings give the healthier Eagles a 14-point edge, so I like their chances of beating the Giants by a pretty convincing margin, even in New York. The Eagles are worth a big play at -7 and a smaller play if you have to take them at -7.5.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -7

Confidence: High