Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles re-sign WR Jeremy Maclin

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I like the idea of the Eagles re-signing Jeremy Maclin and cutting DeSean Jackson and his 10.7 million dollar salary. Maclin is actually the more versatile play maker and I think he can be a strong fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, though he’s yet to play for Kelly in a regular season game after tearing his ACL before last season. Injuries have been the problem for Maclin throughout his career as the 2009 1st round pick has missed 21 games in 5 years in his career, including all of last season and has only once played all 16 games.

Injuries are a big part of the reason why he’s never had a 1000 yard season in his career despite frequently flashing top level ability. He’s come close with a 70/964/10 line in 2010 and a 63/859/5 line in 13 games in 2011, but he’s never crossed that threshold. I think he has a good chance to do so this year, should he stay healthy. When healthy, he’s a better receiver than Riley Cooper and I think he and a rookie receiver can replace DeSean Jackson for less money.

I like the idea of giving Jeremy Maclin a one year prove it deal and I think he could break out on this deal in 2014, but 5.5 million dollars is a lot of money on a prove it deal for an injury prone receiver who has never had more than 1000 yards in a season. He could definitely prove to be worth it, but I think they probably could have gotten him cheaper. Compare this to the 3.975 million dollars that Hakeem Nicks got from the Colts on a prove it deal and this seems like a small overpay. That’s slightly nitpicking though and he could definitely prove to be worth this.

Grade: A-

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Philadelphia Eagles re-sign WR Riley Cooper

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This deal is part of the reason why the Eagles moved on from DeSean Jackson. They think they can replace DeSean Jackson with a healthy Jeremy Maclin and a rookie along with a bigger role for Riley Cooper. Cooper is getting 22.5 million over 5 years, though with only 9 million over 2 years guaranteed. I have a hard time seeing him getting that on the open market. A year ago, Cooper was the Eagles 4th receiver and had 46 catches for 679 catches and 5 touchdowns in his career in 3 years since being drafted in the 5th round by the Eagles in 2010.

He struggled to start the 2013 season as well, catching 8 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown in his first 5 games in a starting role, before breaking out down the stretch. Once Nick Foles came under center, it was a big boost to Cooper’s stats as the Eagles’ passing offense broke out and Foles liked to throw to Cooper more often than Michael Vick did. Cooper caught 45 passes for 810 yards and 8 touchdowns in his final 12 games including playoffs. The Eagles are paying a lot of money for a system player who, as of early October, was a non-factor as a receiver in the league.

I like the Eagles’ general direction at wide receiver this off-season, re-signing Jeremy Maclin, cutting DeSean Jackson and his large salary, and replacing him with a combination of a hopefully healthy Maclin and a rookie, but this is too much money for Cooper. This is the definition of buying high. The other angle here is that Cooper may have struggled to get as much money as he otherwise would have on the open market because of the comments he made last off-season and the potential locker room issues that signing him could cause. The Eagles’ locker room generally seemed to forgive and accept him, but it’s not clear if the rest of the league would feel the same way.

Grade: C

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Philadelphia Eagles sign CB Nolan Carroll

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Nolan Carroll has seen his snap count increase in each of the past 3 seasons, going from 330, to 653, to 809 snaps from 2011-2013. He’s been roughly an average player on Pro Football Focus the whole time and is now an average starter. Last season he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked cornerback, right in the middle of the pack, allowing 47.8% completion, which was actually the 4th lowest in the NFL among eligible cornerbacks.

He’s a good addition for a Philadelphia team that could use competition for Cary Williams at cornerback. He was Pro Football Focus’ 80th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible last season. His 4.75 million dollar salary for 2014 has already been guaranteed by virtue of him being on the roster on March 16th, but Carroll comes as cheap competition (5.25 million over 2 years). This is a solid value.

Grade: A-

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Philadelphia Eagles sign S Malcolm Jenkins

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Malcolm Jenkins has had some decent years in his 5 year career, but ultimately he’s failed to live up to his billing as the 15th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. He struggled mightily as a slot cornerback as a rookie before being moved to safety, where he was an average starter according to Pro Football Focus in both 2010 and 2011. However, in 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked safety and in 2013 he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 65th ranked safety out of 86 eligible.

He has versatility to play both safety and slot cornerback, but the Eagles already have Brandon Boykin so he’ll be a pure safety in Philadelphia. However, the Eagles are paying him like an above average starting safety, which is something he’s never been. This 3-year deal is worth 16.25 million with 8.5 million of that guaranteed. He’ll help fill a need, but it’s a big overpay.

Grade: C

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Philadelphia Eagles 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Eagles, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Eagles were one of the NFL’s most improved teams last season, going from 4 wins in 2012 to 10 wins in 2013. The influence of new head coach Chip Kelly was apparent. It’s not that Andy Reid was a bad offensive head coach, as was proven by the work he did in Kansas City in his first year on the job this year, but his message had grown stale in that locker room. Kelly came in with a fresh offensive playbook and vision, not just fresh to the Eagles, but really to the entire NFL.

Chip Kelly seemed to revitalize the career of Michael Vick early on, as Vick produced some of the better numbers he had put up in years, completing 54.6% of his passes for an average of 8.62 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries in 7 games. Film study suggested that he was made to look better by Chip Kelly’s scheme and that was basically confirmed when Vick got hurt, as he always does. Nick Foles took over as the starter and never looked back as the 2012 3rd round pick and little-thought-of backup set the NFL on fire.

Foles completed 64.0% of his passes for an average of 9.12 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He probably won’t be that good every season, but he established himself as a franchise quarterback in Chip Kelly’s scheme. With a punishing offensive line and offensive playmakers like DeSean Jackson, LeSean McCoy, and Riley Cooper, Foles led the Eagles’ offense to a 78.69% rate of moving the chains in games in which he started and finished, which would have been 2nd only to Denver over the whole season. With a full season of Foles and Jeremy Maclin returning from injury next season, this offense has the ability to be a top-5 unit in 2014.

The defense was the problem. They weren’t as bad as they had been over the past 2 years, as they were able to force 31 takeaways, after forcing 37 the previous two seasons combined. They also got breakout years from defensive linemen Fletcher Cox and Cedric Thornton, who, along with Trent Cole, led a fairly solid front 7. However, they still had major issues at middle linebacker and in the secondary, as their secondary overhaul from last season didn’t really fix the problem. Their defense allowed opponents to move the chains at a 73.10% rate that was 22nd in the NFL. That will have to be fixed if they’re going to take the next step.

Positional Needs

Safety

Needing to fix the safety position last off-season, the Eagles went dumpster diving for injury plagued safeties Patrick Chung and Kenny Phillips and used a 5th round pick on Earl Wolff. Phillips was cut even before final cuts, while Chung struggled when on the field and missed 4 games with injury. Nate Allen had to stay on as the starter next to Chung and, while he wasn’t as bad as he was in 2012, when he was Pro Football Focus’ 5th worst ranked safety, he wasn’t great. He’s a free agent this off-season and should not be seen as a long-term starter. Chung, meanwhile, will likely be a cap casualty this off-season, which would save the Eagles 3.25 million on the cap. Wolff will probably get a chance to be a starter in 2014, but they need at least one new safety, if not two this off-season. If either HaHa Clinton-Dix or Calvin Pryor falls to them at #22 overall, expect them to get snatched up.

Middle Linebacker

DeMeco Ryans was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked middle linebacker last season and the aging soon-to-be 30 middle linebacker has never fit a 3-4 defense. The Eagles can save 6.9 million in cash and cap space cutting him this off-season, but they seem prepared to stubbornly stick with him because he’s their defensive signal caller. Mychal Kendricks, meanwhile, is a media darling for some reason (Cris Collinsworth wouldn’t shut up about him), but he led middle linebackers in missed tackles and receiving yards allowed, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 36th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible in the process. They probably won’t do anything at the position, but they should.

Cornerback

Brandon Boykin was the only Eagles defensive back to grade out above average in coverage on Pro Football Focus, though he did grade out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 cornerback in coverage. He’s just a slot cornerback though and their outside cornerbacks need to be upgraded, especially Cary Williams, who was Pro Football Focus’ 92nd ranked cornerback in coverage grade out of 110 eligible. Williams could be a cap casualty, though it’s unlikely because they just signed him last off-season and because he led their secondary in snaps played last season. Either way, they should add another cornerback to the mix this off-season.

Defensive Tackle

Fletcher Cox has blossomed into the type of every down defensive lineman the Eagles envisioned when they took him in the 1st round in 2012 and Cedric Thornton was a pleasant surprise this season, excelling as a run stuffer. He didn’t get much pass rush, but at the very least, he’s a very valuable two-down defensive lineman. Either way, they could use another starter on the defensive line. They could upgrade Bennie Logan, a 2013 3rd round pick and an undersized nose tackle at 6-3 309 who struggled a bit as a rookie and would be best suited as a rotational backup. They could definitely stand to add more muscle upfront.

Guard

Todd Herremans could be a cap casualty this off-season, going into his age 32 season. Cutting him would only save 600K on the cap, but it would save them 3 million in cash and they’d avoid future cap hits. Herremans was a punishing run blocker last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd best run blocker, but struggling mightily in pass protection, grading out as their 3rd worst pass protector. As we know, this is a passing league so pass protection is more important. He probably won’t be cut this off-season, but he doesn’t have much longer in Philadelphia unless he takes a pay cut. Bringing in a developmental young guard behind him wouldn’t be a bad idea, especially because, as good as Evan Mathis is, he’ll be going into his age 33 season in 2014.

Punter

Donnie Jones is a free agent. They’ll need a new punter if he can’t be retained.

Key Free Agents

QB Michael Vick

Michael Vick has been on the decline in every season since 2010, which makes sense considering how reliant he is on his legs and how many injuries he’s suffered in the past. He put up decent numbers in 7 games last season, completing 54.6% of his passes for an average of 8.62 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries. However, a closer examination shows that much of that was Chip Kelly’s system making him look better than he was, much like it did with Nick Foles. In 2012, he completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 332 yards and a touchdown on 62 carries. That’s probably more accurate and now he’s two years older, going into his age 34 season. He’s played all 16 games once in 10 seasons in the NFL and has missed 22 games over the past 4 seasons. He might still be one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the NFL, but anyone looking at him as anything more than stopgap starter is in trouble. There’s also a chance he’s retained in Philadelphia as Nick Foles’ backup, a role he grew to embrace as the season went on.

S Nate Allen

Nate Allen was Pro Football Focus’ 5th worst ranked safety in 2012, which is why the Eagles brought in Patrick Chung, Kenny Phillips, and Earl Wolff last off-season. The oft injured Phillips couldn’t even make it to final cuts, while the 5th round rookie Wolff was not ready to be a week 1 starter. Allen was able to reclaim his starting job and, while he wasn’t as bad as he was in 2012, he still wasn’t great. He shouldn’t be looked at as a sure starter on the open market. He may have to settle for a one year prove it deal with an opportunity to compete for the starting job.

P Donnie Jones

Donnie Jones has been one of the better punters in the NFL for the better part of a decade, averaging 45.5 yards per punt, 40.7 yards net, and 31.7% inside the 20 for his career. Last season, he was right around those averages. 44.9 yards per punt isn’t that impressive, but he hit 40.2% of them inside the 20 and averaged 40.5 yards net. He’ll find punting work fairly easily this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

WR Jason Avant

The Eagles can save 3.25 million on the cap by cutting Avant, going into his age 31 season. That would make a lot of sense as the 38 passes he caught in 2013 were his lowest since 2008 and because the Eagles already have 5+ million dollars in annual salary committed to their top-3 wide receivers, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Riley Cooper. It sounds like he’ll be gone.

S Patrick Chung

The safety needy Eagles took a chance on the oft injured Patrick Chung last off-season, after he missed 14 games combined from 2010-2012. The 2009 2nd round pick didn’t really pan out for the Eagles, as he missed another 4 games and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 71st ranked safety out of 86 eligible. The Eagles can save 3.25 million in cash and cap space by cutting him this off-season.

WR Arrelious Benn

The Eagles traded a late round pick for Arrelious Benn last off-season, but he didn’t play a snap for them because he tore his ACL before the start of the season. The bust of a 2010 2nd round pick only played 79 snaps in 2012 for the Buccaneers and has never caught more than 30 passes for 441 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Eagles can save 1 million in cash and cap space by cutting him and there really isn’t any reason to keep him around.

WR Brad Smith

Brad Smith is just a gimmick player who played 20 snaps on offense last season, is heavily reliant on speed, and is going into his age 31 season. The Eagles don’t have much need for him and can save 1.5 million in cap space by cutting him.

TE James Casey

James Casey is set to make close to 4 million in salary next season and the Eagles can save 2 million on the cap by cutting him. He’s a fine player, but that’s a lot of money to pay to a 3rd string tight end, especially on a team that has as much money committed to 3 wide receivers as they do. He played just 157 snaps in 2013 and I don’t foresee him having much of a bigger role in 2014, with Zach Ertz developing and Jeremy Maclin healthy. He’s not worth it.

G Todd Herremans

Todd Herremans could be a cap casualty this off-season, going into his age 32 season. Cutting him would only save 600K on the cap, but it would save them 3 million in cash and they’d avoid future cap hits. Herremans was a punishing run blocker last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd best run blocker, but struggling mightily in pass protection, grading out as their 3rd worst pass protector. As we know, this is a passing league so pass protection is more important.

TE Brent Celek

Another tight end the Eagles could cut is Brent Celek. It’s far less likely that they cut Celek because he’s still a very solid player, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked tight end, thanks to his pass catching and run blocking ability. However, they would save 4 million in cash and cap space by cutting him and they do have 3 highly paid wide receivers and a budding young tight end in Zach Ertz. Ertz 2013 2nd round pick who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked tight end last season, despite limited playing time, showing himself to be a mini-Celek with his all-around ability.

MLB DeMeco Ryans

DeMeco Ryans was Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked middle linebacker last season and the aging soon-to-be 30 middle linebacker has never fit a 3-4 defense. The Eagles can save 6.9 million in cash and cap space cutting him this off-season, but they seem prepared to stubbornly stick with him because he’s their signal caller.

CB Cary Williams

Cary Williams is owed about 4.75 million in cash for 2014 and the Eagles can save over 3 million on the cap by letting him go. It probably won’t happen because they just signed him last off-season and because he led their secondary in snaps played last season, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 92nd ranked cornerback in coverage grade out of 110 eligible, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to cut him and bring in someone else at cornerback.

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New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 NFC Wild Card Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 NFL Wild Card Picks, Eagles, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

At first glance, this line, which favors Philadelphia by 2.5 points, seems off. The Saints had a fantastic regular season on the whole, moving the chains at a 76.98% rate, as opposed to 68.85% for their opponents, a differential of 8.13% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Philadelphia, meanwhile, comes in at 12th, moving the chains at a 74.91% rate, but allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.10% rate, a differential of 1.80%. That suggests that New Orleans should be the ones favored and by 3.5 points.

However, we need to delve a little deeper, as that 74.91% number takes into account games in which Michael Vick and/or Matt Barkley saw significant snaps. If you only take into account the 9 games which Nick Foles started and finished (in which they went 8-1, as opposed to 2-5 in their other 7 games), they move the chains at an absurd 78.69% rate, which would be 2nd best in the NFL behind Denver if they were season long numbers. Even with a defense that will allow you to move the chains with some ease, that’s still a differential of 5.58%, which would be 6th in the NFL over a full season. New Orleans still ranks higher, but at least now we have a line that should be a pick ‘em, based blindly on rate of moving the chains.

That still suggests New Orleans is the right side, but we have to take into account the Saints’ road issues. While the Saints are either 7-0-1 or 7-1 at home (depending on what line you had for the 49ers game), they are 1-7 ATS on the road and 3-5 straight up, including losses to St. Louis and the Jets and a blowout loss in Seattle. This is nothing new for them, as Drew Brees’ QB rating is usually about 10-15 points lower on the road than at home. He also doesn’t have a road playoff win in his career and the Saints don’t have one in franchise history. Since 2008, excluding the 2012 season when Sean Payton didn’t coach, the Saints are 31-10 ATS at home and 17-25 ATS on the road.

I am actually 15-1 ATS picking Saints games this year and it would be 15-0-1 if I had gotten -3 in the 49ers game and not -3.5, in an eventual New Orleans win by 3. I’ve done this by blindly picking them at home and almost blindly picking against them on the road, only picking them in Chicago as 1 point favorites because I correctly believed the Bears to be overrated at that point. I don’t have a ton of confidence because the Saints are a very good team and because this is Nick Foles’ first playoff game and Rob Ryan will have something good planned for him, but as long as this line is under 3, I’m sticking with what got me here and fading the Saints on the road. It’s also worth noting that playoff teams who have a better record than their opponent, but are underdogs are 6-15 ATS since 2001. They’re usually underdogs for a reason.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6) at Dallas Cowboys (8-7)

I was kicking myself when I saw this line opened at Philadelphia -3. It was at Dallas -3 a week ago and there was no reason not to take that, even before Philadelphia demolished Chicago last week. For one, Philadelphia is obviously a better team than the Cowboys, so that line suggesting these two teams were equal was obviously not correct, even last week. That was probably a big overreaction to Philadelphia’s blowout loss in Minnesota, which is a fluke when you look at how they’ve played since Nick Foles took over.

Two, home field advantage doesn’t seem to be a big deal in the NFC East. The NFC East is 79-113 ATS at home since 2008, as opposed to 107-89 ATS on the road. As you can expect, in divisional games, the road team generally has the advantage in the NFC East and that’s true, as the home team is 45-27 ATS in NFC East games since 2008, including 17-32 ATS as home favorites. There was also a powerful trend that says teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. Also, Tony Romo’s 12-26 ATS record in week 13 or later was worth noting, even if it wasn’t always his fault.

Of course, Philadelphia’s blowout victory over Chicago 54-11 pushed this line 6 full points, but even then I was considering Philadelphia, though not for a big play at all. They were still the superior team and this was still an NFC East home game, even if the Cowboys were now home dogs. Besides, teams are 45-30 ATS as favorites off of a game in which they score 48+ points since 1989, as teams seem to carry that momentum into the next week.

However, then Tony Romo was reportedly ruled out with a back injury and the line moved all the way to 6.5. We’re no longer getting line value with the Eagles and the public is all over them, which I don’t like, but they should still be the right side for three reasons. One is the aforementioned trend and the fact that they scored 48+ points last week. Two is what I mentioned about the NFC East at home. Three is the fact that the Cowboys without Tony Romo might be the worst team in the NFL, or one of them. They have the league’s worst defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77.67% rate. I’m going with Philadelphia -6.5, though for a no confidence pick. If Tony Romo somehow is able to play this week, I’ll revisit this pick, but I’m going with the Eagles until further notice.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Dallas Cowboys 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -6.5

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Eagles, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (8-6)

The Eagles are a better team than the Bears. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they’re about equal. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.73% rate, as opposed to 73.78% for their opponents, a differential of -0.05% that ranks 16th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, move the chains at a 76.20% rate, as opposed to 75.45% for their opponents, a differential of 0.75% that ranks 14th in the NFL.

However, that doesn’t take into account that the Eagles are a better team with Nick Foles under center, which is why the Eagles are a better team in spite of that. Nick Foles has been incredible on the season, completing 62.0% of his passes for an average of 9.02 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles are 7-2 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

Of course, that assumes normal circumstances and that this game means the same thing to these teams equally. This game could be meaningless to the Eagles if the Cowboys win earlier in the day, because they can’t clinch the division or be eliminated in this one. They might not rest their starters or anything, but that still could affect their motivation, especially against a Chicago team that is fighting for their playoff lives. Even if Dallas loses, the Eagles still could have their motivation affected because they know they can still clinch next week in Dallas, while Chicago is in a much bigger fight. They also might not be preparing for this game with the same urgency of the Bears, assuming a Dallas win against the hapless Redskins.

There are seeding consequences related to this game as if both teams were to win their respective divisions, the winner of this game would be the 3 seed and the loser would be the 4 seed, but there’s really not a big difference between a home game against San Francisco and a home game against New Orleans/Carolina, so these teams might not care about seeding. This is still a bigger game for the Bears. Of course, this line does seem to take that into account as it’s at 3, which suggests these two teams are equal. We’ve already established that really isn’t true. I’m still taking the Bears, but I’m not confident at all. I might change my mind on that pre-game if the line stays in the same place and the Cowboys win though, so stay tuned.

Update: The Cowboys won earlier today, so this game becomes meaningless for Philadelphia. I’m raising this to a low confidence pick at the new line of 2.5, but I’m not confident enough to put money on it.

Chicago Bears 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Chicago +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Eagles, Uncategorized, Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5) at Minnesota Vikings (3-9-1)

Earlier this season, a stat was floated around that the Eagles hadn’t won in 10 straight home games. They ended their home struggles over their recent three game home stand, by winning all 3, but what got lost in that was how good the Eagles were on the road. Since the start of last season, they are 8-6 ATS on the road. That doesn’t sound like much, but consider they are 2-13 ATS at home over that same time period. This year, now that they are actually good, they are 5-1 ATS on the road, with the one loss coming in Denver.

Nick Foles has been incredible on the road this season. He’s been incredible everywhere, but he’s been especially incredible on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.09 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. As a result, the Eagles have won all 4 road games in which Nick Foles has led them in passing attempts by an average of 17.3 points per game. Overall, the Eagles are 7-1 on the season when Nick Foles leads them in passing attempts, as opposed to 1-4 in other games.

At first glance, it doesn’t look like we’re getting any line value with the Eagles as 5.5 point favorites here in Minnesota. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 73.56% rate, as opposed to 72.73% for their opponents, a differential of 0.84% that ranks 14th in the NFL. The Vikings, meanwhile, move the chains at a 69.98% rate, as opposed to 76.10% for their opponents, a differential of -6.12% that ranks 29th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 4.

However, that doesn’t take into account how good the Eagles have been since Foles took over, how much of a non-factor (at the very least) going on the road is for Foles and the Eagles, and the fact that the Vikings could be without Adrian Peterson in this one. I shouldn’t need to tell you how important he is to this team, but the Vikings are 1-4 ATS without him in his career, with the exclusion of his rookie season.

The Vikings are also in a bad spot because they have to go to Cincinnati next week and might not be focused enough to keep this one close and cover. Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010 and the Vikings could definitely be double digit underdogs in Cincinnati next week, considering they were touchdown underdogs in Baltimore last week. This would be a bigger play if the public weren’t all over Philadelphia, but they should be the right side. I’m somewhat confident as long as this line stays below 6. Philadelphia is also my Survivor Pick this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Minnesota Vikings 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -5.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-5)

Earlier this year, the Lions won a game despite losing the turnover battle by 4, something that had only happened 19 times prior since 1989. In that game, accumulating 623 yards of offense, as opposed to 268 for the Cowboys, only the 24th time since 1989 that a team won the yardage battle by that much. They again won the yardage battle by that much last week, outgaining the Packers 561 to 126, the 4th time a team had won the yardage battle by that much since 1989. They also won by 30, despite losing the turnover battle, the 15th time a team had done that since 1989. The Lions are now moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponents, a differential that is 5th in the NFL. They need to avoid turnovers, but that type of thing can be very inconsistent.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are 19th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75% rate, as opposed to 76% for their opponents. Obviously, they’re better than that now that Nick Foles is under center. Foles is completing 63.3% of his passes for an average of 9.14 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and no interceptions on the season. They are 6-1 when he leads the team in passing attempts and 1-4 when he doesn’t.

However, they still have defensive problems and Foles has yet to beat a team as talented as Detroit. It’s also worth noting that the Eagles are 7-24 ATS at home since 2010 (11-20 straight up). They’ve only had Foles for 3 of those games, but he’s 1-1-1 ATS. The Eagles are also in a bad spot at home off of back to back home wins. Teams are 32-55 ATS in that spot since 1989. The Lions should be the right side, but I am nervous about going against Foles again. I definitely wish I was getting field goal protection as well.

Detroit Lions 27 Philadelphia Eagles 23 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Detroit +2.5

Confidence: Low

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