Last week: 11 (-1)
Record: 6-5
On bye.
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Eagles
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick
Arizona Cardinals (7-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-5)
The Eagles snapped their 10 game home losing streak before the bye against the Redskins, beating them 24-16 in a game that wasn’t really even as close as that final score. The big difference was they had Nick Foles under center. Foles proved his first home start of the season, against the Cowboys, was a fluke. That game is clearly the outlier of his season, as he completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against the Cowboys’ terrible defense there.
On the season, he’s playing out of his mind, completing 63.6% of his passes for an average of 9.59 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He’s the real deal. He might not consistently go 162 attempts without throwing an interception and 7 of his 16 touchdowns did come in one game, but he’s proven himself as a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. His coaching situation doesn’t hurt. Like he did with Michael Vick, Chip Kelly is getting the most of Foles.
On one hand, I don’t want to lose more money going against Nick Foles (Washington was my Pick of the Week last week). However, I also don’t want to overcorrect and be all over Nick Foles. Foles could struggle, by his 2013 standards, off of the bye now that he’s officially been anointed the starter and now that he’s had two weeks to hear how good he is. Arizona is also by far the toughest defense he’s faced thus far this season. There’s a big difference between Arizona and Washington, who has one of the worst defenses in the NFL and has since proven themselves as one of the worst overall teams in the NFL. The Eagles’ win over them doesn’t seem as impressive now. There also still might be something to the Eagles’ home struggles.
On paper, the Cardinals appear to be the better team, which is not what this line would suggest. The Cardinals rank 9th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 73% rate, as opposed to 70% for their opponents. The Eagles, meanwhile, rank 20th, moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 77% for their opponents. The Eagles are better than that now that Foles is under center, but I’m still concerned about their defense and I’m concerned about how Foles will handle Arizona’s tough defense, especially now that he’s had two weeks to hear how great he is.
The Cardinals are also in a good spot as they are a distraction free underdog, hosting the Rams next week. Teams are 114-85 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Again, I don’t want to lose anything else betting against Foles and I really wish we were getting more than a field goal with the Cardinals because I think this could be a field goal game, but I’m taking the Cardinals for a no confidence pick.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Arizona Cardinals 23
Pick against spread: Arizona +3
Confidence: None
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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#11)
Last week: 19 (+8)
Record: 6-5
Week 11 Studs
QB Nick Foles
RT Lane Johnson
Week 11 Duds
None
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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#19)
Last week: 22 (+3)
Record: 5-5
One of the weirder streaks in the NFL is that the Eagles have lost 10 straight home games, four off of the all-time record. Yes, they haven’t been a very good team over the past 2 seasons, but they also have won 6 of their past 10 road games. Spread wise, they’ve actually failed to cover in 12 straight home games, as opposed to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 road games. Sure, they have Nick Foles now, but even he struggled in his only home start of the season, completing 11 of 29 for 80 yards. Most of his action this season has been on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions. They’ll try to end that streak at home against the Redskins this week.
Week 10 Studs
RB LeSean McCoy
LG Evan Mathis
TE Brent Celek
CB Roc Carmichael
Week 10 Duds
RE Fletcher Cox
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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick
Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
One of the weirder streaks in the NFL is that the Eagles have lost 10 straight home games, four off of the all-time record. Yes, they haven’t been a very good team over the past 2 seasons, but they also have won 6 of their past 10 road games. Spread wise, they’ve actually failed to cover in 12 straight home games, as opposed to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 road games. Sure, they have Nick Foles now, but even he struggled in his only home start of the season, completing 11 of 29 for 80 yards. Most of his action this season has been on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions.
At this point, the Eagles’ home struggles are worth noting. At the very least, home field doesn’t provide much of an advantage for them. This doesn’t seem to just be a Philadelphia thing. The NFC East is 41-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 16-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 25-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. For whatever reason, NFC East teams seem to have less home field advantage than most teams, so when they play each other, the road team is much more likely to cover than the home team.
I don’t think this line takes that into account, given that the Eagles are favored by 3.5 points. If the line was taking this into account, this line would suggest that the Eagles are at least 3.5 points better than the Redskins, which isn’t true. In fact, I don’t think there’s much difference between these teams at all. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents. The Redskins, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents. Even before we get into the Eagles’ home struggles, this line is too high. Sure, Nick Foles is an upgrade over Michael Vick, but he’s not proven at home yet.
The Eagles are also in a few bad spots. One bad spot is as home favorites of 3.5 or less before a bye. Since 2002, home favorites of 1-3.5 are 16-39 ATS before a bye, including 2-15 ATS in a divisional matchup. This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002. Being in a divisional matchup makes it worse.
The second bad spot the Eagles are in is a revenge game type spot. Teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 50-24 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-38) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Eagles fell victim to this situation at home to the Giants a few weeks ago.
The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a great spot as road dogs after a road loss. Teams are 97-57 ATS in this spot since 2008 and teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in this spot, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. This is probably because teams tend to get used to being away from home. The Redskins’ season is essentially on the line here. They will have 10 days to get prepared for the Eagles, following a Thursday Night loss as favorites in Minnesota. They should not only cover, but win here. This is my Pick of the Week.
Washington Redskins 31 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +160
Pick against spread: Washington +3.5
Confidence: Pick of the Week
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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#22)
Last week: 23 (+1)
Record: 4-5
The NFL is probably glad that Chip Kelly pulled Nick Foles and denied him the chance to break the single game touchdown record, after he tied it in the 3rd quarter with his 7th. I don’t think the NFL could sleep at night with Nick Foles as the single game touchdown record holder. Foles has put together an overall very solid season, completing 62.7% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 13 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. His clunker against Dallas where he completed 12 of 29 for 80 yards is relevant and deserves to be taken into consideration and it’s a small sample size, but he deserves to be the starter until he proves otherwise. I’m not convinced he’s the long-term starter, but he’s definitely better than Michael Vick right now.
Week 9 Studs
QB Nick Foles
LG Evan Mathis
RT Lane Johnson
RE Fletcher Cox
LE Vinny Curry
ROLB Trent Cole
Week 9 Duds
None
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Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)
Trends wise, the Eagles have the advantage here. The Packers will probably be non-divisional road favorites in New York last week and face the Giants and they are non-divisional home favorites this week. Teams are 61-85 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, the Eagles are non-divisional road dogs before being divisional home favorites, when they face the Redskins in Philadelphia next week. Teams are 47-36 ATS in that spot since 2008. Putting them both together, road underdogs are 84-49 ATS before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs.
However, we can’t purely use trends here because of the uncertainty of Green Bay’s quarterback situation. Aaron Rodgers is out. That’s certain, but that’s about it. Seneca Wallace struggled mightily last week, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, despite facing a weak Chicago defense. However, Philadelphia’s defense isn’t any better and they’re probably worse. Wallace will have a whole week to practice as a starter this week and he’ll be prepared to play this time around.
That could really help him and the rest of the Packers’ veteran team could rise up around him. Likewise, the Packers’ coaching staff could get the most out of him the way they did Matt Flynn a few years back. This line shifted about 10 points from last week to this week, from 11 to 1 and the public is all over Philadelphia. That’s a large line movement. It might be justified because Aaron Rodgers is so great, but there’s a chance it’s not, at least in this first game. Because of that, I can’t confidently pick a side. If I had to, I’d take Philadelphia, but I’m not confident.
Philadelphia Eagles 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +105
Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1
Confidence: None
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Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick
Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)
The Raiders won a close home game against the Steelers as underdogs last week, winning 21-18, but they didn’t play that well last week. If it wasn’t for a breakdown on a fluke touchdown run by Terrelle Pryor (the longest in NFL history by a quarterback) and two missed field goals by the Steelers that easily could have been made, the Steelers might have won that game by 7-10 points. They had more first downs (20 to 13), fewer punts (8 to 7), and fewer turnovers (3 to 2). The Raiders are not nearly as good as their 3-4 record. They are moving the chains at a pathetic 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that ranks 29th in the NFL. They have no business being favored here at home over a Philadelphia team that ranks 24th with a differential around -3%.
The Raiders also could be completely flat after last week. Teams are 34-56 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 3 or fewer as underdogs, including 4-9 ATS as home favorites. If you go back to 1989 to get a better sample size, teams are 9-20 ATS as home favorites off of a close win as home underdogs. Going off of that, non-divisional home favorites are 61-84 ATS before being non-divisional road favorites and the Raiders go to New York this week to face the Giants. This is a complete trap game here for a Raider team that doesn’t deserve to be favorites in the first place.
There are two reasons why this isn’t a big play on the Eagles. The first is that they have to go to Green Bay next week and teams are 33-68 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The second is I have no idea which Nick Foles is going to show up. Is he going to be the quarterback who completed 38 of 56 for 493 yards and 5 touchdowns in 6 quarters against the Giants and Buccaneers and looked like a potential franchise quarterback? Or is he going to be the quarterback who completed 11 of 29 for 80 yards against the Cowboys before getting hurt? The Eagles should be the right side, but I’m not confident.
Philadelphia Eagles 24 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +125
Pick against spread: Philadelphia +2.5
Confidence: Low
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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#23)
Last week: 22 (-1)
Record: 3-5
The Eagles split the season series with the Giants and they really aren’t much better than them, if they are at all. They are 4 spots higher than them in these Power Rankings and even that might be too high. The Eagles do have 3 wins, but they were against teams who have a combined 4-18 record and the 2-6 Giants, one of the teams they beat, got revenge last week in what was the Eagles’ 10th straight home loss. The Eagles are within range of the record for most consecutive home losses (14), set by the 2008-2010 Rams and the 1988-1989 Cowboys.
Week 8 Studs
LG Evan Mathis
RE Fletcher Cox
Week 8 Duds
QB Michael Vick
QB Matt Barkley
RT Lane Johnson
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Philadelphia Eagles trade DT Isaac Sopoaga to the New England Patriots
Trade for Patriots: Isaac Sopoaga isn’t very good. The 32-year-old was ProFootballFocus’ 82nd ranked defensive tackle out of 85 eligible on ProFootballFocus last season on the nose in San Francisco. This year, he’s been better, but he’s still grading out slightly below average on the nose in Philadelphia. That being said, he’s probably better than anything the Patriots currently have as Vince Wilfork is on injured reserve, Tommy Kelly is out indefinitely, and the Patriots are using two undrafted rookies Joe Vellano and Chris Jones heavily. He’s not going to get any pass rush, but he can help replacement some of Vince Wilfork’s presence against the run.
He was given an unreasonable 3-year, 11 million dollar deal this off-season by the Eagles, but the Eagles already paid more than 3 million of the 3.75 million guaranteed so the Patriots will essentially be paying him the veteran’s minimum weekly for the remainder of the season and can cut him penalty free this off-season, rather than paying him base salaries of 3.75 million and 3.5 million respectively in 2014 and 2015. The Patriots also gave up very little for him, as they sent a 5th rounder for him and a 6th rounder. I don’t love the deal or anything, but the price was right and he’ll fill a need.
Grade: B
Trade for Eagles: The Eagles aren’t really out of it at 3-5, only a game back of the Cowboys for the division in the crappy NFC East. Sopoaga isn’t a huge part of the team or anything, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense to start selling off starters at this point. 3rd round rookie Bennie Logan will probably take over for him on the nose, but he’s a little undersized at 6-2 309 and he’s inexperienced with only 175 snaps played in 8 games. The Eagles didn’t get a lot of compensation either. One positive: the deal will accelerate his cap hit so it’ll count against this year’s cap, when they have room, rather than next season’s, which will give them some more freedom in free agency.
Grade: C
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