Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles re-sign QB Michael Vick

stevenlourie Eagles

Michael Vick was never going to age well. He’s way too reliant on athleticism. While quarterbacks playing at a high level into their mid and late 30s isn’t unheard of, running backs and wide receivers doing so is pretty rare. There’s a reason for that and as Vick aged and lost some of his athleticism, it was predictable he’d struggle, especially after spending 2 years away from the game in prison. Injuries don’t help things. Vick has played all 16 games just once in his career and has missed 13 games in the last 3 years alone. Not only does that make him incredibly unreliable going forward, all those injuries have really taken a toll on him.

Andy Reid made him look better than he was, just like he did with Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, Donovan McNabb, etc, but even Reid couldn’t do anything with him last year as Vick had his worst quarterback rating since 2006 and the 4th fewest rushing yards of his career (behind his rookie year, when he barely played, 2003, when he missed 11 games with injury, and 2009, his first year in Philadelphia, when he barely played). There’s a reason Reid gave up on him last season, keeping him on the bench in favor of the rookie Nick Foles even when Vick was healthy and not allowing Vick to see the field until week 17, when he lost 42-7 to the Giants in the absence of an injured Foles. 33 this off-season, Vick is washed up.

Because of all of this, I was going to give whoever signed him this off-season a bad grade. Well it turns out the team that signed him was his former team, the Eagles. Technically they didn’t sign him, but there was no way they were letting him see the 15+ million he was due this season so if he was going to be brought back it would be because he signed a new contract.

I can’t argue with the fit. Of all of the possible destinations for Vick, scheme wise he fits new Eagles’ Head Coach Chip Kelly’s offense best (even over old Head Coach Andy Reid in Kansas City). He fits the offense better than Nick Foles would have (though I never bought the notion that Kelly’s offense was completely inflexible and that he wouldn’t be able to cater it to Foles’ skill set).

Plus, this off-season, in a really weak quarterback market, Vick was going to get a starting job somewhere. He’s probably still one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the NFL when you include draft eligible prospects. The Eagles’ options this off-season were Vick or Foles/day 2 rookie quarterback. Either way, I don’t think they’ll be very good, which will put them in prime position to draft a quarterback in the 1st round in 2014, a much stronger quarterback class.

However, I can’t give this a good grade. This is way more than Vick is worth. He gets 3.5 million at signing, 4 million assuming he makes the week 1 roster (he will), another 500K for 50% playing time (he probably will), another 1 million for 90% playing time (he probably won’t), and another 1 million for winning the Super Bowl (HAHAHAHAHAHA).

Vick will probably make 10-13 starts this season, play anywhere from average to mediocre for a non-playoff team, and make 8 million dollars in the process. It’s not worth it. Why not just give Foles a shot? At least he’s young and has some upside. Why not find out what you have with him? This isn’t an awful move, but certainly not a good move either. I’m giving it a C.

As for Foles, it’ll be interesting to see what happens to him. Obviously, Kelly can’t be too high on him if he brought Vick back. Vick almost definitely won’t be back in 2014, but do the Eagles really see Foles as a 2014 starter? That’s doubtful, especially considering how much better next year’s quarterback class will be. They’ll probably opt for someone like Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Tajh Boyd, Logan Thomas, Aaron Murray, Derek Carr, or David Fales instead.

Foles still has some value on the trade market. He was a 3rd round pick last year and showed some promise in his first year as a starter last year. I don’t see why he can’t bring the Eagles a 3rd rounder in return. Andy Reid’s Chiefs obviously have a need at quarterback. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they came calling, though they probably won’t be the only team that has some interest.

One interesting trade scenario could send Foles to the Chiefs, with the Eagles and Chiefs swapping first round picks. By the NFL trade value chart, the difference between the 1st and 4th pick is the 12th pick and while Foles is definitely not worth the 12th pick, that trade chart is not applicable in every scenario. The Chiefs currently have no clue who they’re taking with the 1st overall pick and need a quarterback. Geno Smith is an option, but the NFL seems very lukewarm on him at best as a #1 pick.

Foles could help fill the Chiefs’ quarterback need (along with Alex Smith perhaps as a veteran stopgap) and allow the Chiefs to keep a top-4 pick. With the 4th pick, they’d still be able to choose between most of the players they’re interested in at #1. Star Lotulelei and DeMarcus Milliner would be the most likely options in that scenario. As for the Eagles, the trade up would allow them to secure Luke Joeckel, who is almost definitely their 1st round target. He could still fall to them at 4 (which gives them some leverage, which is why the whole Nick Foles is not worth the 12th overall pick thing isn’t relevant), but he might not and locking him up could be worth parting with Foles.

Update: I’m lowering this to do a D. A friend of mine is an Eagles fans and I asked him what he thought of the move. His response: “Ugh, Michael Vick again…Are we really doing this again?” And that really is true. Is Vick better than Foles? Probably, but enough to warrant 8 million and giving up on Foles? Why not just give Foles a chance and if he doesn’t have anything than you take a quarterback in 2014. I really don’t see how any Eagles fan can be happy the team brought back Vick again.

Grade: D

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Defensive Scheme Changes: Falcons, Saints, Browns, Eagles, Cowboys

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4-3 to 3-4

Atlanta Falcons

This one isn’t confirmed, but Falcons’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is a 3-4 guy. He did a great job in his first season with the Falcons, coaching them to a top-5 scoring defense, despite having to run a 4-3, because he wisely realized they didn’t have the personnel for an immediate switch to a 3-4. Still, you have to figure he’s going to want to go to a 3-4 eventually and going into his 2nd year with the team, there are rumors, though nothing confirmed, that he may be taking them to a 3-4 base this season. They already ran a lot of 3-3 looks last year, as they frequently used sub packages.

If there were to go to a 3 man line full time in 2013, it would resemble the one from their 3-3 front. Jonathan Babineaux would be a 3-4 defensive end and Peria Jerry, Corey Peters, or Vance Walker could play the other 3-4 end spot, though Peters was terrible last year and Walker is a free agent. Either way, they do need a true nose tackle, something this roster lacks. There’s a reason they ranked 29th against the run in 2013. If he’s even re-signed, Walker is their biggest tackle on the roster at about 305, which isn’t going to cut it.

Going to the linebacking corps, defensive ends John Abraham and Kroy Biermann would move to the 3-4 outside linebacker spot. Whether or not they will fit the new position remains to be seen, but either way, they need help at the position. Abraham turns 35 in May, while Biermann is a marginal and inconsistent starter, and their depth is suspect at best. Outside linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas would move inside to middle linebacker, though Nicholas should just be a base package run stuffer and someone else should come in for him in sub packages. Akeem Dent is a candidate, but it also may be someone not currently on their roster.

New Orleans Saints

After ranking among the worst in the NFL in every single defensive category, including 31st in opponent’s scoring, the Saints have rightfully fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They apparently want to do anything they can to change things up as they are reportedly interested in hiring a defensive coordinator with a 3-4 background to run that scheme in New Orleans. As would have been the case if they had stayed in a 4-3, they still need more talent upfront.

Cameron Jordan might benefit the most from the scheme change, as the collegiate 3-4 end had been struggling as a 4-3 end in the NFL. Opposite him, however, they have nothing and someone like Sheldon Richardson will be an option at 15th overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. At nose tackle, expect Brodrick Bunkley and Akiem Hicks to hold down the fort. Both could also play end as well, I suppose, but that will still be a need.

Like 3-4 defensive end, rush linebacker is now a huge need. Will Smith will almost definitely be cut. Not only is he overpaid and not very good anymore, but he’s a terrible fit for a 3-4. That leaves the Saints with nickel rushers Martez Wilson and Junior Galette at the position. They’ll bring someone else in. Someone like Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah will also be an option at 15th overall. Expect them to take a 3-4 defensive end and outside linebacker, in either order, with their first 2 picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne, meanwhile, are obvious fits at middle linebacker and should be able to have bounce back years in the new scheme. Jonathan Vilma probably would have been cut either way, but this pretty much seals the deal.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns made the opposite transition a few years ago, switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 after the 2010 season, with Pat Shurmur coming in. That should help ease the transition. However, they do have a bunch of new front 7 players. Jabaal Sheard is their best pass rusher and I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue moving from 4-3 end to 3-4 outside linebacker. They’ll need a complement for him, opposite him, but they would have needed another pass rusher regardless. Expect them to target rush linebackers at #6 overall.

The reason they need another pass rush is because Juqua Parker is a 35 year old free agent this off-season. He split snaps opposite Sheard last year with Frostee Rucker and frankly they weren’t very good either. Rucker, however, may be a better fit as a 3-4 end. Between him, Billy Winn, John Hughes, Phil Taylor, and Ahytba Rubin, they should be set on the defensive line. That’s five guys who can play significant snaps, including two, Rubin and Taylor, who have the size to play on the nose.

At inside linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson will remain, as he did the last time they used a 3-4. Either Craig Robertson, Kaluka Maiava, or James-Michael Johnson will play next to him. Chris Gocong is another candidate, provided he isn’t cut, owed 4.45 million in 2013, coming off an Achilles tear that ended his 2012 season. Rush linebacker is really their only need area up front, even for depth purposes. They look pretty set at all other positions, but rush linebacker is probably the most important one.

Philadelphia Eagles

Like the Saints, the Eagles have not formally hired a defensive coordinator, but new Head Coach Chip Kelly is a believer in the 3-4 scheme and they are expected to hire a 3-4 defensive coordinator, likely San Francisco defensive backs coach Ed Donatell. They will need to wait until after the Super Bowl to do so, but that’s probably the reason why they have yet to hire anyone.

The scheme change might be best for Fletcher Cox and Cullen Jenkins, who will both move both from defensive tackle to defensive end. Both are natural fits for the position and Jenkins has some experience playing there from his days in Green Bay. Mike Patterson, Cedric Thornton, and Derek Landri will provide solid depth, though the latter is a free agent this off-season. Antonio Dixon has to be thrilled about the position change as well. He’s a talented player in the right scheme, but he was lost in Philadelphia’s wide nine last year, which is why he was cut and not brought back until Jim Washburn was fired and the Eagles scrapped the wide nine. He looks like a natural fit at 3-4 nose tackle, but they’ll have to bring in competition.

The biggest risk is changing schemes for them is that their edge rushers might not fit. Brandon Graham was one of the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL last year and dominated once given a chance to start down the stretch last year. Trent Cole, meanwhile, is coming off a down year, but in the 6 years prior, he was one of the most consistently excellent defensive ends in the NFL. It might not be a good idea to mess with success. One thing the Eagles do have, however, is plenty of depth at rush linebacker. Vinny Curry was a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and Phillip Hunt and Darryl Tapp have played well in limited action, though the latter is a free agent this off-season.

Their expected middle linebackers are DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Ryans stays in his 2012 spot in the middle, while Kendricks moves from the outside. Those two probably had different reactions to finding out they’d be changing schemes. Ryans was nowhere near his normal self in Houston in a 3-4 in 2011, which is why he got traded to the Eagles. Kendricks, meanwhile, struggled as a rookie, but perhaps a change to a 3-4 will get him turned around. He played in a 3-4 in college, playing both inside and outside. The Eagles don’t have any major needs in the front 7, with the exception of competition for Dixon, but they didn’t really have any to begin with.
3-4 to 4-3

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are making the opposite move this off-season, going from years of a 3-4 back to a 4-3. While I don’t understand hiring Monte Kiffin if he’s not going to run his signature Tampa 2 coverage scheme, I like the move to a 4-3 for the Cowboys. All 3 of their talented non-rush linebackers, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, and Dan Connor, will be able to be on the field at the same time, while Lee and Carter will be able to play in space more often. Jay Ratliff is a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4 on the nose, though after his recent arrest, it’s questionable if he’ll be brought back next season. Jason Hatcher is tentatively expected to play defensive tackle next to him, but he is a bit of a tweener in a 4-3.

DeMarcus Ware will move to 4-3 defensive end, which is not as risky as moving an edge rusher from a 3-4 to a 4-3 because most edge rushers played in a 4-3 in college, as Ware did. I have no doubt he’ll be able to get to the quarterback regardless of the scheme. Their biggest issue is at defensive end opposite Ware. Anthony Spencer is not expected to be retained as a free agent because the Cowboys don’t have a lot of cap space. Fellow free agent Victor Butler is an option, as he’s been solid in limited action throughout his career. They also have Tyrone Crawford, a 2012 3rd round pick who might be a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4. Hatcher is also an option, but that would leave them with just Marcus Spears, Sean Lissemore, and Jay Ratliff inside, assuming the latter is even retained. They could add an end through the draft at some point.

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Philadelphia Eagles 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Eagles

After an offseason full of spending, Vince Young proclaimed the 2011 Eagles the “Dream Team.” However, thanks to turnovers, struggles in close games, and general lack of continuity caused by the lockout, that “Dream Team” went just 8-8 and missed the playoffs. Heading into 2012, expectations were still high. After all, they had plenty of talent. Their continuity issues would likely be solved by a full offseason together and their record in close games and poor turnover differential were both things that are generally inconsistent on a year to year basis. Their final 4 games of the 2011 season, in which they outscored opponents 125-46, gave them plenty of hope. Many people expected them to be even as much as a Super Bowl sleeper and quarterback Michael Vick even went as far as to say that they were looking to become a “dynasty.”

The Eagles gave new meaning to the word dynasty in 2012, going 4-12. It was an everything that could go wrong did go wrong year for the Eagles. Several veterans declined faster than expected, while several others quit on Head Coach Andy Reid, and some may have even done both. Either way, they did not live up to their expected levels of talent. One such player was Michael Vick, who had his worst season as a pro in 2012, before getting injured and benched for 3rd round rookie Nick Foles. Foles showed flashes, but didn’t have much of a chance to prove himself behind an offseason line that lost three 2011 starters to injury and had other one benched for ineffectiveness. Andy Reid has been fired after 14 seasons at the helm and whoever takes over for him will take over a roster with proven veterans and some intriguing young talent, but also major questions, major decisions, and, as always, major expectations.

Quarterback

Michael Vick will almost definitely not be back at his scheduled salary of 15.5 million in 2013. Early in the season, there was a lot of speculation that Vick would be cut after the Super Bowl unless the Eagles made the playoffs. They were far from them and Vick was even benched down the stretch for Nick Foles. Meanwhile, Andy Reid, the man who brought Vick to town, has been fired and, so Vick has lost his biggest supporter. The only way he’s back is if the Eagles hire Chip Kelly, who may want Vick to run his option style offense and even only then if Vick agrees to a significant pay cut. He still seems to think of himself as a franchise quarterback so that’s unlikely.

Nick Foles will be back, but it’s unclear in what form. The early guesses seem to be that he’ll be back as the starter, after completing 60.8% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA and 6 touchdowns to 5 interceptions in relief of Vick. This isn’t a strong quarterback market both in the draft and in free agency and trades, so the Eagles may want to just see what they have with him. At the same time, the man who drafted him is gone and he was just a mere 3rd round pick. With a few notable exceptions, non-1st round pick quarterbacks rarely pan out in this league. There’s almost always a good reason they fall. A quarterback will be an option for the Eagles at #4 overall, but there’s a lot to be determined between now and then, including who the coach will be.

Offensive Tackle

A quarterback will be an option for the Eagles at #4, but offensive tackle Luke Joeckel is the overwhelming favorite early. Left tackle Jason Peters’ season was done before it even started, after he tore his Achilles in March, and right tackle Todd Herremans joined him on IR about halfway into the season. Demetress Bell, who was signed to replace Peters, was horrific this year and was benched for King Dunlap, who wasn’t any better. Meanwhile, Dennis Kelly took over for Herremans at right tackle and also struggled. That trio was a big part of the reason why the Eagles ranked 24th in the league in pass block efficiency.

When healthy, the Eagles were better in this area in 2011, ranking 15th in pass block efficiency, but at the very least, they need better insurance for their two tackles coming off major injuries. It might sound weird to use the 4th overall pick on just some insurance, but even if Peters and Herremans can both return as starters next season, they can still use Joeckel at tackle and move Herremans into his natural position at guard, which is also a need of theirs.

Safety

The Eagles used 2nd round picks on safeties in back-to-back years in 2010 and 2011, but that didn’t work out. Jaiquawn Jarrett, drafted in 2011, only lasted a season and was cut before this season, a ridiculously short timeframe for a 2nd round pick to be with the team that drafted him. Nate Allen was better, but only because he’s still on the roster. However, he was benched down the stretch for the undersized Colt Anderson, who really struggled in run support in limited action. Meanwhile, Kurt Coleman, who replaced Jarrett next to Allen, had an even worse year this year than Allen. They ranked 84th and 85th out of 88 eligible safeties on ProFootballFocus. They need at least one new starter at the position, maybe two.

Cornerback

Remember how the Eagles’ had that great trio of cornerbacks on their “Dream Team?” Yeah, that didn’t work out. Asante Samuel was traded to the Falcons for a 7th round pick this offseason because of his age, salary, and his poor fit on the slot and in the Eagles’ new coverage scheme (he ironically had a very good year for the Falcons this year). Meanwhile, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a free agent this offseason, while Nnamdi Asomugha aged very fast. Owed 15 million dollars in 2013, his age 32 season, only 4 million of which is guaranteed, Asomugha could easily be cut this offseason. If both Rodgers-Cromartie and Asomugha return as starters for the Eagles in 2013, they could be in some trouble as the Eagles ranked 26th in the NFL against the pass this season, though their safeties deserve a lot of the blame.

Guard

Earlier I mentioned that guard was also a need for the Eagles. Danny Watkins was Andy Reid’ 2nd to last 1st round draft pick and he was probably his worst. 26 years old on draft day, the Eagles drafted him in the 1st round, well ahead of where he was projected, with the expectation that he would be one of the better players in the NFL at his position from the word go. Instead, he was one of the worst, even getting benched this season for journeyman Jake Scott, who was signed midseason. With Reid gone, this organization has no loyalty to him so he might not be back at all, let alone as a starter. If the Eagles draft Joeckel, Herremans can play guard if he and Jason Peters are both healthy, but that’s a big if.

Center

Maybe Danny Watkins can play center. Like Jason Peters and Todd Herremans, center Jason Kelce went down for the season with an injury this year, but unlike Peters and Herremans, he wasn’t even good when healthy. In fact, only 2 centers graded out worse than him in 2011. Kelce was a mere 6th round pick of the old regime who has never been a good starting center in the NFL so the new regime may opt to replace him.

Outside Linebacker

There was one good thing about this season for the Eagles: big trade acquisition DeMeco Ryans lived up to his billing and solidified the middle linebacker position. However, rookie Mychal Kendricks did not do the same outside, as only one 4-3 outside linebacker graded out worse than him on ProFootballFocus. He was a mere rookie and where he was drafted should get him another shot, but they need competition. Meanwhile, Akeem Jordan and Jamar Chaney split snaps at the 3rd linebacker position, but neither played very well, so they could use a better 3rd linebacker.

Kick Returner

The Eagles ranked 28th in the NFL in kickoff return average.

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 4-11

Net points per drive: -0.50 (27th)

DVOA: -19.5% (27th)

Weighted DVOA: -23.5% (27th)

Studs

LT King Dunlap: Did not allow a pressure on 57 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

LG Evan Mathis: Did not allow a pressure on 57 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

WR Jeremy Maclin: Caught 8 passes for 116 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 57 pass snaps, 2.9 YAC per catch

Duds

RT Dennis Kelly: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 57 pass block snaps

TE Evan Moore: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 5 pass snaps, 1 drop, 1 penalty

WR Riley Cooper: Caught 1 pass for 18 yards on 2 attempts on 55 pass snaps, 12.0 YAC per catch

SS Colt Anderson: Allowed 2 catches for 39 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 4 missed tackles

LOLB Jamar Chaney: Allowed 1 solo tackle, 3 assists, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 27 yards on 2 attempts

MLB DeMeco Ryans: 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 missed tackle, 2 stops, allowed 2 catches for 37 yards on 2 attempts

DT Cullen Jenkins: Did not record a pressure on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants

Philadelphia Eagles (4-11) at New York Giants (8-7)

The Giants are in a must win game here, but that doesn’t mean that this means more to them. The Eagles would love nothing more here than to play spoiler and eliminate a division rival. That being said, I actually really like the Eagles here. There’s absolutely no pressure on them, while all the pressure is on the Giants. This is normally a good situation for a divisional dog.

The Eagles generally do well in these low pressure situations under Andy Reid. They’re 15-6 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or dog in the Andy Reid era, including 8-2 ATS in the division. Here, they are 7.5 point dogs (more nfl odds here). As bad as they’ve been this year, this year hasn’t been any different in that regard. They have covered both times as touchdown dogs this season, including a road win in Tampa Bay and a cover in Dallas in a divisional contest.

The Giants, meanwhile, are terrible in “easy win” situations, especially at home and especially in the 2nd half of the season (under Coughlin they are 53-19 ATS in the first 8 games of the season and 29-42 in the 2nd). They are 5-10 ATS as 2nd half home favorites of 4 or more under Tom Coughlin, including 2-6 ATS in the division. The Eagles also generally dominate the Giants, going 7-2 ATS against team since the start of the 2008 season. As bad as they’ve been this season, they actually beat them way back in week 4.

Yes, they were 3-1 at the time, but they weren’t playing good football, getting blown out in Arizona and beating Cleveland and Baltimore by a point a piece. Right now, they’re not playing great football either, but they’re not as bad as they once were. In their last 5 games, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which was a weird Thursday Night game in which they were unfocused on a short week (having played 3 games in 11 days) and blew a 13-10 lead by turning it over 4 times in 5 plays.

It’s not like they’ve been playing easy teams either. They kept it within a touchdown of both the Cowboys and Redskins, who are actually ahead of the Giants in the standings. They beat Tampa Bay, who was playing well at the time, and they hung within 8 of a Carolina team that was about to go on a 4-1 stretch.

They’ll be going back to Michael Vick this week with Foles injured, but I have a feeling we’re going to get a great performance from him in an audition for a starting job after he’s been stewing on the bench for a few weeks. Maybe that was the wakeup call he needed. He was 19 of 30 for 241 yards (with 49 rushing yards) and a touchdown against these Giants in a win earlier this year. Expect him to be just good enough to trick some crappy quarterback needy team into paying him too much money this offseason (sorry Cardinals/Chiefs/Browns/Bills/Jaguars/Raiders/Jets fans).

The Giants, meanwhile, are not playing well at all right now, losing their last two games by a combined score of 67-14. Against Baltimore, they were outgained 533-186. Only the Bills, in a 45-3 loss in San Francisco, have been outgained by more in a game this season than the Giants were last week. Their last win was a game against the Saints in which they became the first team in 12 years to have 400+ return yards. That’s not going to be here to bail them out. They’re in no position to be laying more than a touchdown. I’m taking the points for a big play. The Giants, however, are my last survivor pick of the season.

New York Giants 27 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI, GB, SD, PIT, DAL, DEN, DET, SEA, STL, IND)

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +7.5 (-110) 4 units

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles

Washington Redskins (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10)

Some situational trends say that the Redskins are the right side here. Teams are 35-19 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, on the Eagles side, divisional home dogs are 23-38 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. That being said, I feel like this is too many points for me to feel comfortable, especially with the public all over Washington.

There was no early line last week because of Griffin’s questionable status, so there’s no way to know if this is an overreaction line, but Cincinnati was just -4 in Philadelphia last week. The Bengals have the same record as the Redskins and won the head to head matchup in Cincinnati. I know the Bengals won by 21, but they actually trailed by 3 in the 3rd quarter before a ridiculous 4 turnover in 5 plays stretch by the Eagles, though I guess that’s just what the Eagles do. Again, the Redskins should be the right side, but this is way too many points on the road for me to be comfortable. We might have gotten a little carried away with the Redskins and because of that, the odds makers can boost the spread and know people will still take them, as has been the case.

Using net points per drive, we see that we do have significant line value with the Eagles. The Redskins rank 14th in net points per drive at 0.08, while the Eagles rank 27th at -0.47. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to Philadelphia’s side for home field advantage, you get that Washington should be favored by just 3.5 points. DVOA supports this, but only somewhat as the Redskins and Eagles rank 11th and 27th respectively in DVOA, but 9th and 29th respectively in weighted DVOA. Washington is the pick, but it’s not a big play.

Public lean: Washington (80% range)

Sharps lean: WAS 22 PHI 8

Final thoughts: I guess I can put one more unit on Washington, though this is at -5.5 in the Supercontest. I wouldn’t go over a touchdown.

Washington Redskins 27 Philadelphia Eagles 16

Pick against spread: Washington -6 (-110) 2 units

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 28 (-1)

Record: 4-10

Net points per drive: -0.47 (27th)

DVOA: -20.7% (27th)

Weighted DVOA: -23.6% (29th)

Nick Foles showed a little bit of promise there for a few weeks, but he struggled on Thursday Night in a game the Eagles completely fell apart in, turning the ball over 4 times in 5 plays and blowing a 13-10 lead. That loss should seal Andy Reid’s fate as the Eagles will probably finish 4-12, with games against the Redskins and Giants left on the schedule. The Eagles will be motivated to play spoiler, but I don’t think they can get the job done. The new regime will have an interesting decision to make on Nick Foles and the future of this team’s quarterback position.

Studs

FS Colt Anderson: 7 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 3 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle

CB Brandon Boykin: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, no tackles

RE Trent Cole: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

DT Fletcher Cox: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

LE Brandon Graham: 3 sacks and 5 quarterback hurries on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops

Duds

QB Nick Foles: 16 of 33 for 182 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop, 61.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 35 drop backs (1 scramble, 1 sack, 4 of 10, 1 touchdown, 2 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Bryce Brown: Rushed for 34 yards (29 after contact) on 16 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hit on 9 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop

RT Dennis Kelly: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 3 attempts

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie:  Allowed 6 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

K Alex Henery: 4 kickoffs, 0 touchbacks, 58.0 yards per kickoff, 24.3 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (20, 22)

P Mat McBriar: 6 punts for 258 yards, 3 inside 20, 4 returns for 42 yards, 30.9 net yards per punt

DT Cedric Thornton: 1 kickoff return for 0 yards, 1 fumble, did not record a pressure on 8 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 29 (+1)

Record: 4-9

Net points per drive: -0.42 (27th)

DVOA: -18.2% (26th)

Weighted DVOA: -22.1% (27th)

The Eagles got their 4th win of the season this week, but with games against Cincinnati, Washington and the New York Giants left, that could be their last win of the season.

Studs

WR Jason Avant: Caught 7 passes for 133 yards on 10 attempts on 59 pass snaps, 5.1 YAC per catch

WR Jeremy Maclin: Caught 9 passes for 104 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 62 pass snaps, 8.1 YAC per catch

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Allowed 2 catches for 10 yards on 9 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Mychal Kendricks: Allowed 2 catches for 0 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Duds

RB Bryce Brown: Rushed for 6 yards (22 after contact) on 12 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 3 attempts

C Dallas Reynolds: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 4 quarterback hurries on 63 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 4 attempts

RG Jake Scott: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 63 pass block snaps

RT Dennis Kelly: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 63 pass block snaps, run blocked -5 yards on 2 attempts

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Allowed 5 catches for 101 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bengals, Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-9)

After the Eagles’ 31-6 loss in Washington week 11, I assumed the Eagles had quit. They were losers of 6 straight, including 4 or more by 13 or more. It was Andy Reid’s first 6 game losing streak of his career and a team that had always gotten better as the season wore on and always played well when their backs were against the wall was no longer doing that. I picked them against Washington because all the trends said they should cover the spread, but they got blown out. News broke that Andy Reid was hesitant to bench Michael Vick for Nick Foles earlier in the year for fear that most of the veterans would quit on the team and it looked like, after Foles’ first career start, that had happened.

I was hesitant to bet heavily against the Eagles the following week against Carolina because I felt it was such an overreaction line and because I thought maybe the Eagles would give a damn on national TV as home dogs against a 2 win Panthers team. I even picked them the following week for a small play against the Cowboys because all the trends said so and because I felt that they’d once again give a damn in a nationally televised game as big underdogs against a division rival, but I refused to take them last week in a non-televised game in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers, who they shouldn’t really care about. I knew there was a strong chance they would go back to not caring, though I didn’t make a big play on Tampa Bay either.

The Eagles not only covered the 7.5 point spread in Tampa Bay, but beat the formerly 6-6 Buccaneers, a team who hasn’t lost by more than 8 points all season, who should be better than their record. With the exception of Nick Foles first NFL start, the Eagles are actually playing legitimately decent football right now. That loss to Washington is excusable now as it was just Foles’ first NFL start. In 3 games since, he’s 70 of 105 (66.7%) for 751 yards (7.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He’s faced the 16th, 25th, and 30th ranked defense over those 3 games, but that’s still impressive.

Bryce Brown is running better than LeSean McCoy had all year and some of the young players like him and Foles are playing really hard now that they’re getting a chance and veterans who didn’t give a damn like Jason Babin have been let go or have been benched or gotten injured. Also let go was defensive line coach Jim Washburn and not so coincidentally, they had one of their best defensive games of the season last week. Not only are they no longer unbettable, but they might be underrated right now. If Foles keeps playing like this, Andy Reid might keep his job.

The Eagles are still irrelevant enough for the Bengals to potentially overlook them, which is a good thing for the Eagles. No one is really talking about the Eagles positively; after all, that was their first win in 2 months, but they should be. This line hasn’t shifted at all in the last week and the Bengals are still 4.5 point road favorites. The net points per drive method of computing real line says this line should actually be -7, but, remember, the Eagles were complete garbage for at least 6 weeks in a row.

As I mentioned, the Bengals will probably overlook the Eagles. After this game, they have to go to Pittsburgh and then home for the Ravens. Why would they care about a 4-9 non-conference opponent? If they lose week 16, they’re basically out of the playoffs almost no matter what and vice versa they can also lose this game and make the playoffs if they win in Pittsburgh next week.  Here’s a trend that puts that into numbers. Non-conference favorites are 32-63 ATS before being divisional dogs since 2002, including 4-15 ATS as road non-conference favorites. If we go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size, teams are 12-31 ATS as road non-conference favorites before being divisional dogs.

Meanwhile, the Eagles are in a good spot. Teams are 31-19 ATS off a close (1-3 points) road win as non-divisional touchdown dogs since 1989, including 19-9 ATS as dogs and 10-4 ATS as home dogs. I guess the momentum of a big win carries over so long as they are still dogs and the win was non-divisional (for the opposite of this, the Steelers were completely flat last week as favorites off a close road divisional win as touchdown dogs).

Normally I like to take favorites on Thursday nights as favorites. Favorites tend to cover as favorites tend to be more veteran teams and more prepared for the short week. I’m not taking the Bengals for two reasons. One, they’re on the road, which cancels that out. Two, while they are favorites, they aren’t exactly a veteran team. Andy Dalton is a 2nd year quarterback and I think it’s risky to take a 2nd year quarterback as 4.5 point road favorites on a short week, even against a rookie like Nick Foles.

He could be really unprepared in his first Thursday game and it’s not like he’s done well in primetime games so far in his career. They were blown out by the Ravens 44-13 week 1 on Monday Night football and then lost at home 24-17 to the Steelers on Sunday Night football a few weeks later. Andy Dalton is a combined 36 of 65 for 326, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks in those 2 games, though he wasn’t exactly facing friendly defenses. Finally, I also like that we’re getting a chance to fade the public with the Eagles as the Bengals are a fairly significant public lean. The public always loses money in the long run.

This would be a bigger play on the Eagles if it weren’t for a few things. One, Andy Dalton has been very good against non-playoff teams in his short career. He’s 10-4 (8-4-2 ATS) against teams with a losing record. He was a perfect 9-0 against non-playoff teams last year and this year I count he’s 6-3. However, the 4.5 point spread leaves enough of a window to play with if the Bengals do end up winning. Two, I’ve been really bad at Thursday Night games this year. It’s possible that you just can’t handicap them using traditional methods. It’s always risky taking a rookie on a Thursday night too, even at home as 4.5 point home dogs against a 2nd year quarterback who has never played on a Thursday.

Three, the Eagles are playing a Thursday Night game 3 weeks after a Monday Night game, which means they will have played 4 games in 17 days. It might not be a huge difference as the Bengals will have played 4 in 18, but the Ravens almost lost at home to the Browns in this spot earlier this year and the Seahawks really struggled to get things going offensively in San Francisco and shouldn’t have covered the 7.5 point spread in this spot earlier this year (the game Harbaugh declined the safety in). I also like the under, especially with two young quarterbacks. The under is 74-55 on Thursday Nights, including 9-3 this year if you exclude Thanksgiving.

Public lean: Cincinnati (70% range)

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Cincinnati Bengals 16 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +4.5 (-110) 3 units

Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit

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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6)

All of the trends say the Eagles are in a good spot this week and should cover. Road dogs off a road loss are 85-48 ATS since 2008 and the Eagles are dogs here in Tampa Bay after losing in Dallas last week. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are in what’s known as the sandwich game, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs and before being dogs again. They lost in Denver last week as dogs and will go to New Orleans next week. Teams tend to take the sandwich game lightly, as a breather, going 59-84 ATS in this spot since 2008.

Meanwhile for the Eagles, teams that lose 5+ straight are 60-35 ATS since 2002 off a loss by 8 or fewer. For whatever reason, teams on long losing streaks tend to cover after almost breaking through and winning a game. Andy Reid also does well as road dogs in his career, going 38-21 ATS in this situation, including 10-3 ATS as dogs of a touchdown or more. This includes a cover in Dallas last week.

That being said, I can’t take the Eagles here. Remember how they were playing before the Carolina and Dallas game? They looked like they had absolutely quit. They did a good job of playing for pride in two nationally televised games, including one in which they were big divisional dogs and one in which they were home dogs to a previously 2-8 team. This week, they aren’t on national TV and they have no real reason to try hard here against Tampa Bay, who is desperate for a win to remain in the playoff hunt. Philadelphia had their best effort of the season last week and nearly pulled the upset in Dallas. That was their Super Bowl. They probably won’t give nearly that level of effort this week. Their secondary blows numerous coverages and allows numerous big plays per game and that’s what Josh Freeman thrives on.

Meanwhile, we’re getting line value with the Buccaneers. They rank 11th in net points per drive at 0.29, while Philadelphia ranks 28th at -0.49. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 3 points for home field advantage, we get that the Buccaneers should be favored by about 11.5 points, which makes sense since the Cowboys were 10 point favorites last week and almost covered (the Eagles covered on a very late punt returner). The Cowboys aren’t better than the Buccaneers. I know they won when they played earlier this year, but it was close in Dallas and Tampa Bay is a completely different team now.

That line holds up against DVOA, which ranks Tampa Bay 13th and Philadelphia 27th, including 12th and 28th respectively in weighted DVOA. I like to compare that to net points per drive for confirmation because DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account things like strength of schedule. That line makes sense because the Buccaneers are better than their 6-6 record. Not only have they been playing better football in general since the bye (I don’t knock them too much for losses to Atlanta and Denver), but they have a +48 points differential which is much better than their record. That’s good for 9th in the NFL and 5th in the loaded NFC.

That’s because they haven’t lost a single game by more than 8 points and they have 4 wins by double digits. I think they get their 5th here. It’s only a small play though because of the trends, which all favor Philadelphia, but I really don’t think they’ll give a crap. I’ve lost a lot of big plays this year betting on the Eagles when all the trends are on their side. Trends don’t too a ton of a good when a team has quit and aside from the last 2 weeks, when they had a reason to give a crap, they have quit.

Public lean: Tampa Bay (60% range)

Sharps lean: TB 8 PHI 8

Final thoughts: No change.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay -7.5 (-110) 1 unit

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