Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 29 (+0)

Record: 3-9

Net points per drive: -0.49 (28th)

DVOA: -18.9% (27th)

Weighted DVOA: -21.4% (28th)

Studs

RB Bryce Brown: Rushed for 169 yards (91 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 24 attempts, 5 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 4 passes for 14 yards on 5 attempts, 1 drop

LG Evan Mathis: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 24 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RG Jake Scott: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

WR Jason Avant: Caught 4 passes for 79 yards on 4 attempts on 28 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

LE Brandon Graham: 2 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

WR Damaris Johnson: 2 punt returns for 104 yards and a touchdown, caught 1 pass for 13 yards on 1 attempt on 5 pass snaps, 15.0 YAC per catch

Duds

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Allowed 4 catches for 63 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

SS Nate Allen: Allowed 3 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 2 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

MLB DeMeco Ryans: Allowed 2 catches for 29 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) at Dallas Cowboys (5-6)

2 weeks ago, the Cowboys stood at 4-5, but many people still gave them a chance to win this division. The Giants weren’t looking great and the Cowboys, having played a very tough schedule in their first 9 games, had a very easy schedule down the stretch with 5 of 7 at home, including at least 4 where they almost definitely were going to be home favorites. However, they barely beat Cleveland, needing overtime to come back and win after going down 13-0 early and then they lost to Washington, both as home favorites. Now the Redskins at 5-6 look like the team that’s more likely to take down the Giants, if anyone can.

The truth is, the Cowboys just don’t play well as home favorites. Since opening the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009, they are 9-17 ATS as home favorites, including just 2-7 ATS as divisional home favorites. Call it the Cowboys Stadium curse, call it whatever you want, but it’s prominent. Tony Romo struggles in general as large favorites in his career anyway, going 13-20 ATS as touchdown favorites and 6-10 ATS as double digit favorites. He’s been even worse in the division, going 1-7 ATS as touchdown divisional favorites and 0-4 ATS as double digit divisional favorites.

The Eagles, meanwhile, tend to thrive in this situation in the Andy Reid era. They’re 48-33 ATS as dogs, including 37-21 ATS on the road as dogs and 16-9 ATS as divisional road dogs. As touchdown dogs, he’s 13-6 ATS, including 7-2 ATS in the division. As double digit dogs, he’s 5-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS in the division. For what it’s worth, he’s been double digit dogs against the Cowboys twice in his career as Head Coach of the Eagles and the Eagles won them both straight up.

Of course, these aren’t typical Andy Reid times. He’s generally been an accomplished Head Coach, but right now he’s 3-8, having lost 7 in a row and he’s basically a dead man walking employment wise. The Eagles are so banged up with injuries too and they very well may have quit. However, even if they have quit, they did show some signs of life on Monday Night against the Panthers, probably because they didn’t want to be embarrassed on National TV. Well, this one is on National TV too and against a divisional rival. This game is like their Super Bowl so if they were to ever give effort, this would be the week.

As bad as they’ve been, I don’t think the Cowboys deserve to be double digit favorites against anyone. The net points per drive method of computing line value doesn’t seem to think so either. The Cowboys rank 20th in net points per drive at -0.12 (net points per drive being offensive points divided by total drives minus defensive points allowed divided by total drives). The Eagles are 26th at -0.47. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (average drives per game) and add 3 points for homefield, you get around -6.5, which is around where this line probably should be.

That line checks out with DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account and strength of schedule). The Cowboys ranks 15th and the Eagles 27th. It’s a little different than where they rank in net points per drive (the Cowboys have had the tougher schedule and the better special teams), but I don’t think you can say the Cowboys deserve to be 10 point favorites. This line shifted 2 points from last week, when it was at -8, which I don’t understand. The Cowboys lost as favorites and the Eagles finally were competitive in a game. Why did the line shift? At the very least, this line is 2-2.5 points too high.

Also, as bad as the Eagles are, no team has ever covered fewer than 3 times over the course of a season in at least the past 5 seasons. That makes sense because the whole idea behind spreads to try to make things even, make so even bad teams can cover, and make life harder for odds makers. The Eagles have either covered 1 or 2 times all season this season, depending on what line you had for their week 4 game (they beat the Giants by 2 and the line was -1.5 in some places and -2 in some others). If history is any indication, the Eagles will probably cover at least once more this season. I don’t see any time better than this one, with all of the trends in their favor in a game that should be their Super Bowl. It’s not a big play though because, I mean, it’s the Eagles.

Public lean: Dallas (50% range)

Sharps lean: PHI 5 DAL 4

Final update: Again, not shocked people stayed away from this game. The shitty Eagles or the Cowboys as double digit favorites? I have a little bit more confidence in Philadelphia than most people because all the trends say Philly will cover and I think they’ll actually give a damn this week on National TV against a divisional opponent as huge underdogs, but you couldn’t get me to make a big play on this one.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +10 (-110) 2 units

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#29)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 27 (-2)

Record: 3-8

Net points per drive: -0.47 (26th)

DVOA: -22.0% (27th)

Weighted DVOA: -24.5% (28th)

Tier 7: Terrible

Studs

RB Bryce Brown: 178 yards (108 after contact) and 2 touchdowns on 19 attempts, 8 broken tackles, 2 fumbles, caught 4 passes for 11 yards on 5 attempts

LG Evan Mathis: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 40 yards on 5 attempts

RE Trent Cole: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT King Dunlap: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 17 yards on 2 attempts

RG Jake Scott: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 24 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -4 yards on 3 attempts

RT Dennis Kelly: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

FS Kurt Coleman: Allowed 3 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

ROLB Mychal Kendricks: 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, allowed 2 catches for 56 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts

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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Eagles, Panthers

Carolina Panthers (2-8) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6)

I was expecting the Eagles to be favored in this one and I was going to make a big play on Carolina for several reasons. The first and most obvious is that the Eagles appear to have quit. Even if they haven’t, they have really struggled to cover as favorites in the last 2 seasons, going 5-13 ATS in this situation. This was also a sandwich game situation for them, meaning they are favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs.

Teams are 58-81 ATS in this spot since 2008. The logic is that good teams in that situation will see this game as an easy rest game to get back on track and not take their opponent seriously and that bad teams don’t deserve to be favorites in the first place. Philadelphia is the latter. Proving bad teams struggle as favorites, home favorites are 27-38 ATS since 2008 before being road dogs in two straight. The Eagles go to Dallas and Tampa Bay in their next 2.

In fact, unless they’re favored at home week 15 against Cincinnati or week 16 at home against Washington, Philadelphia might not be favored the rest of the way (5 games). Favorites before being dogs in 5 or more straight are 11-24 ATS since 2008. Favorites after being dogs in 3 straight are also 39-53 ATS since 2008, a situation Philadelphia is in. All of these are ways of showing that bad teams struggle to cover as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Panthers would have been dogs before being favorites, going to Kansas City next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot in the last 2 years. Combining that trend with the sandwich game trend, teams are 111-56 ATS as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs since 2008. On top of all of this, the Panthers are coming a home loss in overtime, a situation teams are 45-29 ATS in since 2002, including 19-10 ATS off a loss as home dogs.

However, when this line opened mid week (there was some speculation that Vick might return), the Eagles opened as 2.5 point dogs, which ruined what could have been a big play. That’s a ridiculous 5.5 point line movement from where this line was last week (Philadelphia -3). I know the Eagles are horrible and going into this one without LeSean McCoy, but that kind of line movement is reserved for a franchise type quarterback getting hurt.

It’s a bit of an overreaction and costs us all line value. Using the yards per play differential method, this line should be Carolina -1.5 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, this line should be Philadelphia -8. Those two average at about the Philadelphia -3 we were at before. Of course, those numbers don’t truly take into account how terrible this team is, especially now that they seem to have quit on Head Coach Andy Reid and new quarterback Nick Foles (there are rumors that Reid was afraid to bench Vick earlier in the season for fear he’d completely lose the team). However, there’s definitely no line value with the Panthers at all here.

I still like the Panthers to win and cover, but the line movement (accompanied by a slight public lean on Carolina in a week where the odds makers seem due for a big week after a rough 3 week stretch), makes things more complicated. It also knocks out a ton of good trends. The Panthers are still coming off a loss as home dogs in overtime and one more trend does open up. Contrary to what’s maybe logical, road dogs with 2 wins or fewer do actually tend to cover. In week 9 or later, teams with 2 wins or fewer are actually 10-4 ATS since 1989, meaning they’re generally road favorites for a very good reason. It’s a small lean on the Panthers as long as the line is 3 or fewer.

Public lean: Carolina (60% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 8 PHI 2

Final update: No surprise this was the 3rd least picked game of the week by the sharps. Why would anyone want to pick either of these teams? No change here.

Carolina Panthers 19 Philadelphia Eagles 16

Pick against spread: Carolina -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 21 (-6)

Record: 3-7

The Phillies have won more recently than the Eagles. The Eagles’ 3 wins this season have come by a combined 4 points. They’ve now lost 6 games in a row and appear to have completely quit on Andy Reid. Last week I said that Andy Reid be brought back if Foles impressed, but Foles did the exact opposite of impressing last week, going 21 of 46 for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns against Washington’s crappy secondary in a 31-6 loss. In fact, he was so bad that Michael Vick has made a miraculous recovery from a concussion that looked season ending last week. I think Reid knows he’s a dead man walking and doesn’t care anymore and his players certainly don’t either. Expect them to bring in a new regime who brings in their own quarterback because neither Vick or Foles is a long term solution.

Studs

LG Evan Mathis: Did not allow a pressure on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

MLB DeMeco Ryans: 9 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 catches for 7 yards on 2 attempts

LE Jason Babin: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 5 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

DT Mike Patterson: 3 quarterback hurries on 12 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

DT Fletcher Cox: 4 quarterback hurries on 13 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 4 stops

Duds

QB Nick Foles: 21 of 46 for 204 yards and 2 interceptions, 2 batted passes, 4 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 5 drops, 56.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 17 of 50 drop backs (4 sacks, 5 of 13, 1 interception, 3 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 drop)

RB LeSean McCoy: Rushed for 45 yards (34 after contact) on 15 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, 1 penalty, allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 17 pass block snaps, caught 6 passes for 67 yards on 6 attempts

RG Jake Scott: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, 3 penalties

WR DeSean Jackson: Caught 2 passes for 5 yards on 7 attempts on 50 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

TE Clay Harbor: Caught 1 pass for -1 yard on 5 attempts on 19 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 1 pass block snap

WR Jeremy Maclin: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 1 penalty

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Allowed 4 catches for 75 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

RE Trent Cole: 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Washington (3-6)

This line has shifted 2 points since last week because of Michael Vick’s injury (-1.5 last week to -3.5 this week), which makes no sense because Michael Vick sucks. Nick Foles went 22 of 32 for 219 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception in relief of Vick last week. He didn’t look as good as those numbers, but he was facing a solid defense and didn’t get any first team reps all season.

This week, he gets a full week of reps with the first team and to face the Redskins’ 27th ranked pass defense. He should be able to have a strong game against them, something I don’t know if Vick could have done. Vick only led the Eagles to 13 points against the Saints’ last ranked pass defense so I don’t understand this line shifting 2 points because of Vick getting hurt.

We’re getting a little bit of line value with the Eagles now that the line has shifted. The Eagles rank 18th in yards per play differential and 16th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while the Redskins rank 20th in yards per play differential and 15th in rate of sustaining drives differential. These two teams are about even. The yards per play differential method of computing line value says that Washington should be -2.5 at home (3 points for home field), while the rate of sustaining drives differential method says this line should be -3.

This is also the exact type of game Andy Reid thrives in. He’s best when being doubted (the public is all over Washington), when he’s a road dog, when he’s coming off a losing streak, and in the latter part of the season. Since the Eagles hired him way back in 1999, he’s 8-5 ATS on a 3+ game losing streak and 4-1 ATS on a 4+ game losing streak (last week was the first time he failed to cover in this situation). I didn’t like them last week because of Vick, but now with Foles, they might actually be better off and they’re certainly going to be more undervalued and more likely to be overlooked.

Also last week, the Eagles were home dogs and Andy Reid is about .500 as home dogs in his career. However, as road dogs, he’s 37-20 ATS, including 16-8 ATS in the division. He’s also 65-42 ATS after week 10, including 22-10 ATS as road dogs after week 10. Another spot that the Eagles weren’t in last week, they’re now dogs before being favorites. Teams are 95-50 ATS in this spot since 2011, including 23-11 ATS as divisional dogs before being non-divisional favorites (they host Carolina next week). Besides, Andy Reid needs this game to keep his job. If Foles impresses down the stretch, the Eagles will keep him around to develop the quarterback he drafted, his specialty.

Meanwhile, the Redskins are divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs as they head to Dallas next week. Teams are 14-47 ATS in this spot since 2002, an incredibly powerful trend. That game is also just 4 days after this one, on Thanksgiving. Favorites are just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites. I also like that the Redskins are pretty heavily bet by the public. Not only does it mean no one believes in the Eagles (when they play best), the public always loses money in the long run. It’s a big play on Nick Foles and the Eagles.

Public lean: Washington (70% range)

Sharps lean: PHI 8 WAS 2

Final update: No change.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 18 (-3)

Record: 3-6

It was a very smart of Andy Reid to “rest” Michael Vick the rest of the way. He’s not making the playoffs, but he can still save his job if Nick Foles goes say 4-3. He can blame their slow start on Vick and his history developing quarterbacks will probably convince management to let Reid stick around and develop the promising young quarterback he drafted. If he Foles can’t show anything, Reid will probably be gone and a new coach will come in and probably bring in his own quarterback.

Given the history of non-1st round pick quarterbacks in the NFL (only 9 of 32 week 1 starting quarterbacks this year weren’t drafted in the first round), I say it’s more likely that Foles flops and Reid goes. It’ll be a shame. I’ve always said that for all of Reid’s faults, his work his quarterbacks outweighs them. He’s almost always fielded competitive teams. That being said, eventually a change just needs to be made, so I can understand letting him so, and if Reid decides he wants to continue coaching, he’ll get another job really quickly.

As for potential Reid replacements, look no further than Jon Gruden, who is rumored to be interested in returning to coaching. He has ties to the Eagles, having served there as an assistant in the 90s. He also might have done a little bit of foreshadowing on Monday Night Football during the Eagles/Saints, before the rumors broke. Gruden said something along the lines of “boy I tell ya if the eagles fire Andy Reid they better have someone good lined up to replace him.” If that happens, let’s just hope that ESPN doesn’t hire Andy Reid to replace Gruden on MNF.

Studs

RB LeSean McCoy: Rushed for 82 yards (48 after contact) on 16 carries, 2 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 14 yards on 5 attempts

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Mychal Kendricks: Allowed 5 catches for 22 yards on 7 attempts, 1 sack on 3 blitzes, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

LG Evan Mathis: Allowed 2 quarterback hits on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 6 attempts

RE Trent Cole: 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

DT Cullen Jenkins: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 stops

DT Fletcher Cox: 2 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

C Dallas Reynolds: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 39 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts

Duds

RG Dennis Kelly: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards on 4 attempts

LT Demetress Bell: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 53 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

SS Nate Allen: Allowed 5 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

CB Dominique Rodgers Cromartie: Allowed 3 catches for 87 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles

Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)

Last week, I enjoyed a relatively successful week. I hit 4 of my 6 big plays and went 9-5 overall, but it could have been a lot better. I hit my first 4 big plays and if I had hit my last 2, I would have enjoyed my best week ever, rather than just a strong week. I also was undefeated straight up until the Giants lost to the Steelers and I was actually thinking that maybe I could go undefeated 14-0 straight up, in which case I would have been kicking myself for not parlaying all the money lines and making a serious chunk of change. Instead I finished 11-3 and I was kicking myself for another reason.

I lost my last 2 plays, Dallas +4 and Philadelphia +3. The first one was the most agonizing as the Cowboys outplayed the Falcons and had a strong chance to cover blown by Orlando Scandrick making a series of boneheaded moves. The 2nd one didn’t feel good either. The Eagles weren’t nearly as close as the Cowboys were to covering, but the game went a similar way for them. Lots of yards and first downs, but only 13 points. The 447 yards they totaled were the 9th most since 1989 that a team has had and still scored 13 or less.

Angry from those two games, I tweeted (@stevenlourie) “Probably gonna start making Philadelphia and Dallas unbettable. They suck in a way statistics can’t quite capture.” I followed that up by tweeting, “Of course I tweet that right before I realize Eagles and Cowboys play next week. That game should be…something…” I hate overreacting to one week like that, but it was so true, so it wasn’t really an overreaction. I use statistics heavily when making these picks and I had been burned on several occasions with both of these teams, especially Philadelphia.

However, breaking down the game and finding the applicable trends early this week, I began to really like the Cowboys. I felt they were the least “sucky” of the two teams. They did have the statistical advantage (real line for this one is PK for the yards per play differential method and Philadelphia –1 for the rate of sustaining drives differential method). While these two teams do both suck in a way that statistics can’t measure, I thought maybe that would cancel out when they play each other and the statistics will be spot on.

The Cowboys held the edge in the trends as well. At +1, they were road dogs off a road loss. Road dogs off a road loss are 78-47 ATS since 2008. Dogs before being favorites are 89-50 ATS since 2011. Meanwhile, on Philadelphia’s side, they were divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs (in Washington next week). Teams are 14-47 ATS in that spot since 2002. They were divisional favorites off a 14+ MNF loss. Teams are 2-10 ATS in that spot since 2002. Finally, teams are 57-82 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs.

Well, what happened? The action started pouring in on Dallas and the line shifted. Philadelphia is now +1.5 at home and all of trends I referenced are moot. Maybe it was a blessing in disguise because I shouldn’t have been considering laying significant money on either of these teams in a game where literally anything can happen (and I mean anything). Maybe the Cowboys will prove I should have bet on them even as favorites.

Either way, I’m back to making these two teams unbettable this week. This is my lowest confident pick of the week and if I did zero unit picks, this would be one. I’m going to take the Eagles because I like getting Andy Reid as a dog. He’s 48-30 ATS as a dog since he took over in 1999, though just 11-10 ATS as a home dog. In a must win game where either coach could get fired at the end of the season if they lose here, I trust Reid and his 9 lives as a Head Coach more.

We’re also getting a chance to fade the public by taking Philadelphia, as Dallas is a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

Rather than putting 1 unit on the spread, I’m putting it on the money line (+110) because it’s not worth the extra 20 cents to get protection against a 1 point Dallas loss, but remember, this pick goes last in any confidence pool and would be a zero unit pick if I did them. Literally anything can happen in this one. I’m actually looking forward to it.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 13 PHI 1

Final update: Sharps seem to like Dallas, but I still have no clue.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Dallas Cowboys 19 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

I think there are two ways Andy Reid can save his job. If he makes the playoffs or if Nick Foles shows some promise. The former isn’t happening most likely. At 3-5, they’d have to go 7-1 the rest of the way to make the playoffs most likely and while Reid is a great coach in the 2nd half of the season, I can’t see that happening. However, if he benches Vick for Foles and Foles shows some promise, maybe they go 4-4 or 5-3 the rest of the way, Reid will be able to blame his early season struggles on Vick and convince them to keep him around to do the one thing he’s great at, which is developing quarterbacks. Even behind this offensive line, Foles could succeed. Vick makes them look worse than they are as he holds the ball the longest from snap to throw out of any quarterback in the NFL and he has for 2 seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles

Studs

RB LeSean McCoy: Rushed for 119 yards (72 after contact) on 19 attempts, 6 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 14 yards on 3 attempts, 1 drop

LE Brandon Graham: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 12 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 2 stops

RE Trent Cole: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

LT King Dunlap: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 54 pass block snaps

RT Demetress Bell: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 3 attempts

RG Dennis Kelly: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

TE Brent Celek: Caught 5 passes for 47 yards on 9 attempts on 39 pass snaps, 3.4 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, allowed 1 sack on 10 pass block snaps

WR Jeremy Maclin: Caught 2 passes for 28 yards on 4 attempts on 53 pass snaps, 0.5 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

ROLB Mychal Kendricks: 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, 1 penalty, allowed 5 catches for 50 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Allowed 3 catches for 35 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Allowed 2 catches for 31 yards on 3 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles

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Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Eagles, Saints

Philadelphia Eagles (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (2-5)

Andy Reid’s perfect 13-0 career record off the bye is gone. The Eagles are 3-4 and the sky is falling in Philadelphia. This line has shifted 1 point since last week. That might not seem like a whole lot, but a shift from -2 to -3 is huge because about 16% of games end with a final margin of victory of exactly 3, so field goal protection is huge. It takes a lot for odds makers to shift a line from under 2 to exactly 3. Well, I’m not so sure the sky is falling in Philadelphia.

They still rank 18th in yards per play differential and 13th in rate of sustaining drives differential. That’s not good, but it’s not horrible. They’ve always been a better 2nd half team under Andy Reid. Since he took over in 1999, the Eagles are 28-26 before the bye and 82-40 after. Just because he lost for the first time off a bye last week against an undefeated Falcons team, doesn’t mean that’s going to change. Besides, this is the exact type of game Andy Reid wins. Whenever it looks like the sky is falling, the Eagles always have a way of bouncing back. Remember when they beat the Giants after the Arizona game? In his career as underdogs, Andy Reid is 48-29, including 7-3 ATS as underdogs off a loss as favorites.

The Saints are in a good spot as well, at home, and off a loss. Drew Brees is 22-14 ATS off a loss with the Saints, including 16-6 ATS since 2008. He’s also 8-4 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs, a number that improves to 7-0 ATS going back to 2008. He’s also 10-2 ATS at home dating back to last year. However, these aren’t the same Saints. They’ve already lost twice at home to the Redskins and Chiefs. They also almost lost at home to the Chargers, but Drew Brees’ pick six was called back by a penalty.

Brees looks the same. He’s now on pace for 5280 yards, which would be his 3rd career 5000 yard season, and he’s got a legitimate chance to do that if he continues to play this well or close to this well because of his team’s atrocious defense and running game. He’s currently on pace for 720 passing attempts, which would shatter Drew Bledsoe’s 18 year old record of 691.

However, just because Drew Brees looks like Drew Brees again doesn’t mean the Saints are the Saints again. They can’t run the ball or stop anyone. They rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards and rushing attempts and 30th in rushing yards per carry. Defensively, they rank 30th against the run, dead last against the pass, dead last in pass rush efficiency, and 30th in points per game allowed, allowing 30.9 per game. As a result, they’ve had to pass 315 times to 139 runs, not including quarterback scrambles and sacks, which were designed passes that don’t count as pass attempts.

You might not think of defense and running the football when you think of the Saints, but whenever they’ve been good, it’s something they’ve done. In 2009 when they won the Super Bowl, they ranked 6th in the league in rushing yards, 7th in the league in YPC, and allowed just 21.3 points per game. Last year, when they won 13 games, they allowed 21.2 points per game, ranked 6th in rushing yards, and 4th in YPC.

This year, they remind me a lot more of the 2008 Saints, when Drew Brees threw for over 5000 yards, but the team went 8-8 because he didn’t have any help. They ranked 28th in rushing yards, 23rd in yards per carry, and allowed 24.6 points per game, good for 26th in the league. Their defense might be even worse. This line says these two teams are comparable, but I don’t think that’s true.

In fact, while Philadelphia ranks 18th and 13th respectively in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, the Saints rank 31st and 28th respectively, thanks, in large, part to their atrocious defense. We’re getting big line value with the Eagles as yards per play differential says they should be 3 point road favorites and rate of sustaining drives differential says they should be 1.5 point road favorites. This late in the season, it’s rare to get this kind of line value.

Two more things work in Philadelphia’s favor. Dogs are 86-49 ATS before being favorites since 2011, including 16-3 ATS off a loss as favorites. When we go back to 2008 to get a larger sample size, that trend is 50-21 ATS since. Meanwhile, Andy Reid is 15-7 ATS on Monday Night Football, for what that’s worth. Their season is on the line and this is the exact type of game Andy Reid wins, with everyone doubting them. It’s a significant play on the road team.

Public lean: New Orleans (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: PHI 13 NO 0

Final update: Another heavy sharps lean lining up with my pick. I’m feeling really good about this week. The last time I agreed with the sharps this much was week 4, my 2nd best week ever (+25 units). I’m adding an extra unit here. I love getting a 50-21 ATS trend and getting Andy Reid in a must win game as dogs.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New Orleans Saints 27 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +3 (-110) 4 units

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