Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 11 (-5)

Record: 3-4

A lot of people are saying that Andy Reid should stick with Michael Vick because he gives him the best chance of making the playoffs and that’s the only way to keep his job. Even if it’s true that Vick is their best short term option (I’m not so sure), I still disagree with that. Andy Reid’s thing is quarterbacks. He’s always made quarterbacks look better than they are, whether it be Donovan McNabb, Kevin Kolb, AJ Feeley, even Vick up until this year (I still argue he’d be worse off anywhere else). If Foles takes over and shows some promise down the stretch, even if they don’t make the playoffs, they’re going to want to keep Reid around to develop him.

Still, I don’t think the Eagles are out of it. They’ve always been a better 2nd half team under Andy Reid. Since he took over in 1999, the Eagles are 28-26 before the bye and 82-40 after. Just because he lost for the first time off a bye last week against an undefeated Falcons team, doesn’t mean that’s going to change. And if they do end up firing Reid, I can understand it. I’ve always said what he does with quarterbacks outweighs all the negatives, but eventually, change needs to happen and maybe change would be best for both sides. If Reid is let go and decides he wants to continue coaching, he’ll probably be snatched up quickly.

Studs

LT King Dunlap: Did not allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 1 attempt

C Dallas Reynolds: Did not allow a pressure on 44 pass block snaps, run blocked for 32 yards on 8 attempts

MLB DeMeco Ryans: 8 solo tackles, 2 assists, 6 stops, allowed 6 catches for 27 yards and a touchdown on 6 attempts

LE Brandon Graham: 2 quarterback hurry on 18 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

WR Jeremy Maclin: Caught 6 passes for 33 yards on 11 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 3.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops

TE Brent Celek: Caught 3 passes for 32 yards on 5 attempts on 33 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Allowed 5 catches for 139 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Mychal Kendricks: 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 3 penalties, allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection

LE Jason Babin: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Eagles, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

The Falcons are 6-0 and they’re underdogs. Easy money right? That seems to be what the public thinks as most of the action is on the undefeated dog. However, that’s not necessarily always the case with undefeated dogs. Believe it or not, there’s no trend associated with undefeated teams as dogs this late in the season. Undefeated dogs after week 7 are 3-2 ATS, after week 6 are 3-3 ATS, and after week 5 are 7-7 ATS. The odds makers don’t make it that easy on you.

The reason that Atlanta is a dog this week is because in all his years as Head Coach of the Eagles, Andy Reid has never lost off a regular season bye. He’s a perfect 14-0 straight up, including 11-3 ATS. If we expand that to the playoffs, he’s 14-4 ATS and 17-1 SU with that one loss coming in the Super Bowl to the Patriots. Last year, when they finished 8-8, they blew out the Cowboys 34-7 after their bye, despite having a 2-4 record coming in. That was their biggest victory of the season. I don’t know what the hell Andy Reid does during a bye, but whatever it is, it works. Whether you like the Eagles or not, you have to agree if they ever can get their act together and play like their talent level, they’d be a dangerous team. Well, this week, that should be the case.

Besides, while the Falcons are 6-0, they aren’t exactly playing well of late. They’ve won their last 3 games by a combined 12 points against teams that are a combined 6-13 on the year and they could have lost each of them had one or two things gone a different way. Against Carolina, the Panthers led into the late 4th quarter, but botched their end game badly. Against Washington, the Redskins were even with the Falcons until Robert Griffin got hurt. He was replaced by 4th round rookie Kirk Cousins, who promptly throw 2 interceptions. The Redskins also missed a very makeable field goal in that game. Against Oakland, Carson Palmer threw an unnecessary late pick six in a 3 point Falcons win.

Besides, it’s not like they’ve played a tough schedule or anything. They have the league’s worst strength of schedule. The two toughest teams they’ve faced are Denver and San Diego and the Denver game was in Atlanta. Philadelphia is probably the toughest road team they’ve faced thus far this year, even not off a bye. Besides, it’s supposed to be wet and rainy in Philadelphia this weekend and the Falcons have never proven to be a good team outside in the elements in the Matt Ryan era. I don’t expect that to change now that they’re become a more pass reliant team.

Easy schedule aside, Atlanta is still not playing as well as their record. They rank just 6th in the league in rate of sustaining drives differential at 7.5% and 21st in the league in yards per play differential with a -0.3. The reason for this, aside from some close games, has been their reliance on turnovers. They rank 3rd in the league with a +10 turnover differential. However, historically, turnover differentials average out to be the same on a weekly basis regardless of what your previous turnover differential was. It’s not something you can rely on week in and week out to win you games. They almost lost at home to Oakland because they lost the turnover battle. For more on that, click here.

Philadelphia is in the opposite situation. Because of their -9 turnover differential, tied for 2nd worst in the league, they actually rank better in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives than their record would suggest, ranking 13th in yards per play differential and 11th in rate of sustaining drives differential, despite a .500 record.

We can use these two stats to calculate a real line. The real line with the points per play differential method is Philadelphia -6.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. I like to use both because one overestimates teams that get a lot of big plays (or allow a lot of big plays) and the other underestimates those teams, but using those methods, at the very least, this line doesn’t seem so ridiculous, not even taking Andy Reid’s record off a bye into account. At the most, we may actually have some line value with the Eagles so long as the line remains below 3.

Each team has a prominent trend working for them. Teams off a close home loss (1-3 points) as favorites are 84-64 ATS the following week since 2002. That works for Philadelphia and it’s even stronger off a bye, 17-5 ATS since 1989. The Falcons, meanwhile, are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 84-46 ATS in since 2011. Teams tend to be extra focused in that situation, but the Eagles will also be extra focused off a bye.

Besides, I think it would be reckless to pick a publicly backed underdog this week. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money. I think you’d have to be crazy this week to take a public dog (with one possible exception, which I’ll get into later this week).

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

You can follow the odds makers’ thought process here. They want favorites to cover, but know the public generally bets favorites and they still want to make money. However, they know if they make a 6-0 team like the Falcons a dog, people are going to go for that because “they’re undefeated and all they have to do is win,” but the odds makers also know how good Reid is off a bye so they’re confident they can get their money while a favorite still simultaneously wins. It’s a trap line. I love the Eagles this week. As long as this line is lower than 3, it’s a pick of the week. It might be a close game, but I’m very confident they will win. For the record, I’m 10-3-1 ATS on picks of the week and co-picks of the week this year.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: PHI 29 ATL 5

Final update: In total agreement here. Always a good sign. In general, my big plays have matched up with the sharps.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2 (-110) 5 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#14)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 7 (-7)

Record: 3-3

Firing defensive coordinator Juan Castillo and replacing him with underrated defensive coordinator Todd Bowles, previously the secondary coach, will make a difference. Bowles coordinated the league’s #6 defense in Miami last year and was named interim Head Coach after Tony Sparano was fired. The biggest issue is still Michael Vick, however. I don’t expect him to be brought back next season, with the team opting to save money and go forward with Nick Foles as the starter.

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Reid benched Vick just for a game or two for Nick Foles. It wouldn’t be a permanent benching, but it would teach him a lesson. He used to do this with Donovan McNabb and it generally worked well. Like McNabb, Vick could use some humility. Vick was recently quoted as saying “I don’t have a fumbling problem. I don’t normally fumble the ball. Everything happens for a reason. If it was meant to be, I wouldn’t have fumbled on the goal line.” He’s taking absolutely no responsibility and blaming it on a higher power.

Studs

RT Todd Herremans: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

WR Jeremy Maclin: Caught 6 passes for 130 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 58 pass snaps, 10.8 YAC per catch

MLB DeMeco Ryans: 8 solo tackles, 4 assists, 4 stops, allowed 4 catches for 15 yards on 8 attempts

CB Brandon Boykin: Allowed 3 catches for 10 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Allowed 1 catch for 37 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception

Duds

LT Demetress Bell: Allowed 4 quarterback hits and 5 quarterback hurries on 60 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

RG Danny Watkins: Allowed 3 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 60 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

TE Brent Celek: Caught 4 passes for 33 yards on 7 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 4.5 YAC per catch, 3 drops, 1 penalty, allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 21 pass block snaps

FS Kurt Coleman: 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 3 catches for 60 yards on 4 attempts

SS Nate Allen: Allowed 1 catch for 20 yards on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

DT Cullen Jenkins: 1 quarterback hurry on 36 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Eagles, Lions

Detroit Lions (1-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

The Detroit Lions sit at 1-3 and have yet to cover a spread. As someone who called them overrated to start the season and subsequently went against them in each of their first 4 games, I’m pretty happy about that. However, right now I think they might be a little bit underrated. They’ve had a lot of injury issues in the first few games and now with Louis Delmas expected to return, they should have their whole defense back, though you can argue that doesn’t matter a ton because they allowed the 10th most points per game in 2011. In 2012, however, they are allowing the 7th most.

In spite of that and their 1-3 record, they do rank 13th in the league in yards per play differential, including 16th in yards per play allowed. How are they 16th in yards per play allowed, but 26th in points per game allowed? Well, there are some factors. One is that one of their games went to overtime, though if you take out points allowed in overtime, they’re still allowing 27.7 points per game (a .75 point per game improvement), which would rank 25th.

Another major issue they’re having is special teams. They allowed 4 kickoff or punt return touchdowns, which is responsible for 7 points per game. Take those out of the picture and they’re actually allowing 20.7 points per game in regulation which would rank 12th in the NFL. Of course, that’s assuming that their opponents would not have scored at all on any of their drives after the kickoff or punt, which is incorrect.

We also need to look at their per drive defensive statistics. Including extra points, the Lions are allowing about 2.1 points per drive this season, so really, those 4 return touchdowns allowed have cost them a total of 19.6 total points or 4.9 points per game. Still, if you take those out of the picture, they are allowing 22.8 points per game in regulation, which would be 18th. However, they’ve also allowed 2 touchdowns on a pick six and a fumble recovery touchdown, which, using the same method as above, allows an extra 2.4 points per game, which leaves their defense responsible for 20.4 points per game, which would be tied for 11th. This is all very “crude” math. Other things are at play like field position, but you get the idea. Their defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as the points per game would suggest.

Now the question is, will they continue to allow so many non-defensive touchdowns? Well the two touchdowns off of turnovers have gone on just 6 giveaways. That’s one per every 3 turnovers. Average is one per every 12 turnovers and the numbers suggest it’s more luck than skill if your opponent returns a takeaway for 6, depending on things like where on the field the turnover takes place and how many players (on each side) are in the area.

But how about their special teams issues? Well, it’s really tough to say that’s not skill, but it’s probably not as hard of a fix as say fixing a bad pass rush or something. Plus, let’s say they continue to be horrific on special teams and break the NFL record for both kickoff return touchdowns allowed and punt return touchdowns allowed. Did you know how many that would be? 5. Yes, if they allowed 3 kickoff returns for touchdown and 3 punt returns for touchdown the rest of the way, they will hold both records.

Even if they did that, that would still be just .5 special teams touchdowns allowed per game, an improvement of .5 special teams touchdowns allowed per game over their first 4 games, meaning they can be the worst special teams team ever and still see a 100% improvement in that area going forward. If they simply tie both records of futility, that would be .33 special teams touchdowns allowed per game going forward, a 200% improvement.

So all things the same, they should see a noticeable improvement in points per game allowed going forward. However, all things aren’t really the same. They’ve faced a pretty easy slate of opposing offenses so far, St. Louis, San Francisco, Tennessee, and Minnesota. In fact, Philadelphia this week might be the toughest offense they’ve faced so far. I think we should expect them to allow somewhere around the 24.2 points per game they allowed last year. They’re still not a good defensive team.

Meanwhile, while they haven’t faced tough offenses, they have faced some tough defenses. With the exception of Tennessee, who really isn’t doing anything right, everyone they’ve faced this year is playing tough defense. Their offense is just 13th in the league in yards per play. Unfortunately for them this week, Philadelphia ranks 7th in opponent’s yards per play (San Francisco is 3rd, Minnesota is 2nd, and St. Louis is 11th), so they have another tough test, but going forward, we should see an offensive improvement.

And that takes me to another underrated team, the Philadelphia Eagles. They’re another team whose yards per play differential is much better than their record and points differential as they rank 8th in this category. The reason for that takes a much shorter explanation than Detroit’s. The issue is, unsurprisingly to anyone following the league this year, their turnover differential. They rank tied for last in the NFC with a turnover differential of -7.

However, turnover differentials tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to use yards per play differential. It’s not perfect, but it doesn’t take into account something that’s incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis.

So both teams are underrated, but which one do I like? Well, a week ago, I probably would have said Detroit as this line was -6 and Philadelphia’s game all seem to be close, with the exception of that game in Arizona. However, since then, this line has moved to -3.5, a complete overreaction considering the Eagles didn’t look all that bad last week (they covered the spread) and the Lions didn’t play. For the record, the real line here is Philadelphia -5.5, so we’re getting line value with the Eagles now.

The line has also done a good deal of moving this week, as Detroit is a publicly backed underdog, which is driving the line down. I like betting against publicly backed underdogs and getting line value, so it’s a very small play on the hosts. I don’t have a good feel for this one though and it would be a zero unit play if I did those.

Public lean: Detroit (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean (15-9 or better in LV Hilton): DET 24 PHI 8

Final update: Sharps like Detroit, but I’m still unsure.

Philadelphia Eagles 28 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 4 (-3)

Record: 3-2

I still think this team will win this division. Not only are they currently in first place, but they still rank 8th in yards per play. The turnovers will even out eventually and this is always a much better 2nd half team. Under Andy Reid, they are 90-53 after week 8 and 56-42 in weeks 1-8. The Giants, meanwhile, do the opposite under Tom Coughlin. In weeks 1-8, they’re 45-18 and after week 8, they’re 46-42. Losing by 2 in Pittsburgh isn’t terrible.

Studs

RT Todd Herremans: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Allowed 3 catches for 28 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles

LE Brandon Graham: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 11 pass rush snaps, no tackles

Duds

C Dallas Reynolds: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

WR Jeremy Maclin: Caught 5 passes for 39 yards on 8 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 1.6 YAC per catch

ROLB Mychal Kendricks: Allowed 4 catches for 19 yards on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 6 missed tackles, 1 penalty

DT Derek Landri: Did not record a pressure on 13 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Jamar Chaney: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

DT Fletcher Cox: Did not record a pressure on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 5 NFL Picks, Eagles, Steelers

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2)

I really wish these two teams weren’t playing each other. I was so looking forward to betting Pittsburgh back at home this week off their bye after they fell flat in Oakland before the bye. That loss in Oakland, as bad as Oakland is, was predictable. The Steelers have really struggled on the road, as opposed to at home, over the past year plus. Over the last year plus on the road, they are -43, including playoffs, and +137 at home. They beat Indianapolis by just 3, Kansas City by just 4, and Cleveland by just 3 last year and now they lost to Oakland.

They were also without James Harrison and Troy Polamalu last week. The latter’s injury was more damaging. The Steelers are now 7-8 since 2009 without him, allowing 21.6 points per game and 27-8, allowing 14.4 points per game, with him. That’s not all him, but a lot of that is him. He’s their only irreplaceable defensive player and his mere presence can disrupt passing plays and running plays. Both are expected to be back this week and even though Polamalu is more important, both will be welcomed back with open arms. They also return Rashard Mendenhall who, even if he still isn’t 100%, will add some life to a running game that currently ranks dead last in the NFL in YPC. Besides, home favorites of 3+ off a bye are 44-21 ATS in non-divisional contests since 2002. Back at home, healthy, off a bye, this was a great “buy low” opportunity to bet on them.

However, we’re not getting any line value with them at all because of who they are playing. Philadelphia is still undervalued because of how many turnovers they committed in the first 3 games. Turnovers tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. The average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of +5 one week is the same as the average turnover differential the following week for a team that had a differential of -5. They’re right around at +0.0. In fact, that’s the case for every turnover differential bracket. That’s why I wasn’t shocked at all that they didn’t commit a single turnover against the Giants last week. Turnovers aside, they rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential.

The Steelers, meanwhile, rank 22nd. That’s skewed by the injuries they’ve had and they’re a much better team at home, but this line is -3.5. An old gambling formula says to take the difference between the two differentials, in this case, 1.2, and divide by .15 and add 3 points either way for home field to get the “real” line. In this case, the “real” line should be Philadelphia -5. Obviously, we need to add a human element to the mix here. If this line was Philadelphia -5, I’d be all over it for Pittsburgh, but the point is, Philadelphia has really outplayed Pittsburgh thus far this season and I don’t think they deserve to be 3.5 point home favorites over them. In order for this line to be valid, Pittsburgh would have to be tied for 1st with San Francisco in yards per play differential and I don’t think that’s the type of team they are, even at full strength, off a bye, at home.

I’ve gone back and forth on this. Philadelphia is probably the better team and has definitely played like the better team this season, at least in statistics that matter (meaning ones that are more consistent on a week to week basis). However, Pittsburgh is great at home and is finally healthy. They’re also in a great situation coming off a bye. Besides, like Green Bay and New England last week with the same record, Pittsburgh is a proven, veteran team in a must win situation. At the end of the day, I’m going to take the points and fade the public as long as we have field goal protection, but if I did zero unit picks, this would be one of them.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: PIT 17 PHI 9

Final Update: The sharps really seem to love Pittsburgh. I was as split as could be on this one, so I’m going to defer to the sharps and make a small play on Pittsburgh. If I did zero unit picks, this would be one though.

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Record: 3-1

Last week: 4 (+0)

The Eagles were -10 in turnovers through the first 3 games and then didn’t commit a single turnover against the Giants last week in a win. A lot of people are surprised, but I’m not. Turnovers are incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis. No matter what a team’s turnover differential in a previous week, teams tend to average a turnover differential of 0.0 the following week. This team is incredibly talented and sits at 3-1, while ranking tied for 2nd in the league in yards per play differential, and is a legitimate threat to be this year’s team that goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. They’re the 2nd best team in the NFC, in my opinion.

Studs

QB Michael Vick: 19 of 30 for 241 yards and a touchdown, 2 throw aways, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 99.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 18 of 36 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 scrambles, 6 of 13, 2 throw aways, 1 drop)

Duds

RT Todd Herremans: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LT Demetress Bell: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

WR Jeremy Maclin: Caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 3 attempts on 35 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

LE Jason Babin: 1 quarterback hit on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 assist

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants

New York Giants (2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-1)

Wow, the public has really soured on Philadelphia. A week ago they were heavily bet as road favorites and now one week later, the public is pounding the Giants in this one with the Eagles being just 1 point favorites at home. Dogs after losing as road favorites are 23-11 ATS since 2008. I know the Eagles aren’t technically dogs, but being 1 point home favorites and having the public betting heavily against you is about as close to being dogs as you can be. By the way, when you add in teams that were 1 point favorites to that aforementioned stat, it’s 24-12, so not much difference. Besides, the public is getting killed this year, especially on bets like this, as the public is 4-12 on heavy leans, which is what this is in favor of the Giants. I like to fade heavy leans as much as I can.

The Eagles have gotten killed with turnovers in their first 3 games, with a league worst -6 turnover ratio. However, that tends to even out on a week to week basis. Going back to 2002, looking at teams with every turnover differential from -5 to +5 in a single game, they all average a turnover differential of about +0 in their next game. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and they rank 4th in the league in yards per play differential, a much more consistent stat. I expect them to eventually get their act together and finish as one of the best teams in the league.

Speaking of yards per play differential, Philadelphia’s yards per play differential is 1 yard better than New York’s and an old handicapping formula says to divide to that by .15 and add 3 either way for home field advantage to determine the “real line.” That suggests that Philadelphia should actually be favored by 9.5 points. It’s more accurate to use that a few more weeks into the season, but it’s worth noting. The Eagles’ only glaring flaw so far has been ball security, but the Giants have an equally glaring flaw and it’s their dead last ranked pass defense. Pass defense is not as inconsistent on a week to week basis as turnovers are, so the Eagles should be able to take advantage, especially now that they’re healthy in the receiving corps with Jeremy Maclin returning.

Besides, this is the type of atmosphere the Eagles thrive in. As dogs or favorites of 1, the Eagles are 49-30 ATS since 1999, which was when Andy Reid took over. Coming off a loss as a favorite, they’re 23-17 ATS. When you combine those two, they’re 7-3 ATS coming off a loss as a favorite as a dog or favorite of 1. The Giants are in a few situations they normally thrive in as well. They are 33-15 ATS on the road since 2007 and Giants are 41-27 ATS (49-19 SU) in weeks 1-9 since 2004 and they’re coming off 10 days rest. Teams are 109-89 ATS on Sunday off of Thursday Night football. However, they’re also just 1-5 off a win of 28 or more in the Coughlin era and the Eagles have owned this rivalry of late, winning in 7 of their last 8 matchups.

This really feels like the type of game the Eagles are going to win. It’s one of those things that tough to explain in numbers (though I definitely tried), but when you watch enough football you develop a 6th sense for this kind of thing. Everyone is doubting the Eagles, who, the important numbers say are the more talented, while the Giants are in a situation where they can’t play the “nobody believes in us card,” which they might do better than anyone in football. They also zig when you expect them to zag and zag when you expect them to zig and right now, everyone expects them to win. There are things working in both sides’ favor, but it’s still a significant play on the home team.

Public lean: NY Giants (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): PHI 13 NYG 8

Philadelphia Eagles 31 New York Giants 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -1 (-115) 3 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Philadelphia Eagles: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 2-1

The Eagles have gotten killed with turnovers in their first 3 games, with a league worst -6 turnover ratio. However, that tends to even out on a week to week basis. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and they rank 4th in the league in yards per play differential. I expect them to eventually get their act together and finish as one of the best teams in the league, though I think Michael Vick is going to be a limiting factor come playoff time. This week, they have a big game against the Giants, one I expect them to win.

Studs

LG Evan Mathis: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 3 attempts

RG Danny Watkins: Did not allow a pressure on 46 pass block snaps, run blocked for 14 yards on 3 attempts

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Allowed 1 catch for 6 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

LE Jason Babin: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

RE Trent Cole: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 assist

LE Brandon Graham: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry, 3 solo tackles and 4 stops

RE Darryl Tapp: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 9 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

LT Demetress Bell: Allowed 7 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

CB Brandon Boykin: Allowed 5 catches for 63 yards on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

DT Derek Landri: Did not record a pressure on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

DT Fletcher Cox: 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]