Eagles

Eagles rule Jeremy Maclin and King Dunlap out, place Jason Kelce on IR

stevenlourie Eagles, News

Heading into a surprisingly crucial match up with the Arizona Cardinals in Arizona, one of two this week between 2-0 teams in a league that has just 6 such teams remaining, the Eagles will be without several starters. Jeremy Maclin, who attempted to play through a hip injury last week, before having to leave again, has been ruled out, as have two starters on the offensive line, left tackle King Dunlap and center Jason Kelce, the latter of whom was placed on season ending IR with a torn ACL. However, in spite of this, the Eagles do have a significant advantage in Arizona.

The Eagles lead the league in points per play differential, which is my favorite stat because I feel it does the best job of predicting future success and of judging how teams have played in the past. The Eagles were without Maclin for most of last week, as he played just 44 of 80 snaps, and yet they were still able to total 485 yards against the Ravens in a win. They were also without Dunlap and Kelce, mediocre starters, for most of that game as well.

Demetress Bell, a proven starter in Buffalo, will replace Dunlap at left tackle, while the much less proven Dallas Reynolds will replace Kelce at center. Talent slot receiver Jason Avant and undrafted rookie Damaris Johnson will replace Maclin. They should still be able to beat a Cardinals team, which actually has a negative points differential, with ease.

The Cardinals have a good defense, but eventually they’ll have to do something offensively and right now they rank dead last in points per play. I don’t trust either of their quarterbacks (Kevin Kolb will get the start in this one against a Head Coach who knows all of his tendencies having coached him for several years) and neither of their running backs have gotten anything going on the ground. Meanwhile, their offensive line is still the horrendous line people were worried about before the season.

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Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) at Arizona Cardinals (2-0)

Believe it or not, this is a matchup of 2-0 teams. Philadelphia being 2-0 isn’t that farfetched, but anyone who told you that they had Arizona starting 2-0, with a week 2 clash in New England on the schedule, is either lying or the biggest Arizona homer in the world or didn’t look at the schedule or some mix of all three. No one saw that coming and it killed about half of the survivor pools out there including mine. Side note, I almost wrote at the end of the New England/Arizona write up that I was so confident New England would keep your survivor pools alive that if Arizona won, I would shave my pubes, glue them to my face, and run naked through the streets of Boston, but I didn’t want to sound ridiculous (phew).

However, I’m still not sold on Arizona. They’ve got a great defense, but I don’t trust either of these quarterbacks (it’ll be Kevin Kolb again in this one) and neither of their running backs has been able to get anything going as they’ve rushed for just 148 yards on 53 carries in their first 2 games. Another side note, that’s actually 28th in the league. 4 teams have rushed for worse totals than that. Why can’t anyone run the football this year (17 teams under 4.0 YPC)? Anyway, eventually the Cardinals’ offense is going to have to play better if they want to win games consistently and I don’t give them much chance of doing that here at home against a Philadelphia team that has one of the best defenses in the league.

The Cardinals actually have a negative points per play differential (thanks to a 4.2 yards per play average that is tied for 2nd worst in the league), which does not bode well for their future and which suggests they can’t keep this up. The Eagles, meanwhile, have the league’s best points per play differential. Still, they’ve barely won both of their games because they’ve turned the ball over 9 times and possess a -3 turnover differential that is tied for 2nd worst in the NFC.

Turnovers were a huge issue for them last season, turning the ball over 38 times. Turnovers, however, are incredibly inconsistent on a week to week and year to year basis (which is why I love the yards per play differential stat, because turnovers aren’t a factor). Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season. The Eagles have been an exception to that statistic so far this season, turning the ball over 9 times in 2 games, but you have to figure, eventually their turnovers will become less of a problem and turnovers aside, this has been the best team in the league over the first 2 games.

As I said in the preseason, they’re one of the most talented teams in the league (even though they’re expected to be without Jeremy Maclin in this one) and they should be able to get a blowout win here, even on the road, against a fluky Arizona team. Arizona is home dogs of 3+, but unlike home dogs of 7+, I don’t have much of a problem betting on home dogs of 3-7. Home dogs of 3-7 are 215-257 since 2002, so there’s not much of a trend there as there is with 7+ home dogs (98-78).

One trend does work against the Cardinals. Teams coming off upset wins as dogs of 13+ are 14-29 ATS since 1989. I’d feel  a little bit more comfortable if this line was -3 and I had field goal protection. However, I feel like this one isn’t going to be very close and I’m putting a pretty big play on the road team.

Public lean: Philadelphia (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -4 (-105) 4 units

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 10 (+6)

Record: 2-0

The Eagles have 9 turnovers in 2 games, but they’re 2-0. How does that happen? Well, when you lead the league in points per play differential with a differential of 1.5, all of a sudden, you can overcome those turnovers. Historically, that differential is more likely to continue that their turnover differential, which is -3. If that continues, the Eagles should prove themselves as one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, as I said they were at the beginning of the season, and compete for a first round bye in a loaded NFC.

Studs

QB Michael Vick: 23 of 32 for 371 yards, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, 2 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 103.8 adjusted QB rating, pressures on 16 of 39 drop backs (1 scramble, 2 sacks, 7 of 13, 2 hit as throwns, 1 interception), rushed for 34 yards (6 after contact) and a touchdown on 6 carries

WR DeSean Jackson: Caught 7 passes for 114 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass plays, 1.9 YAC per catch

FS Nate Allen: Allowed 6 catches for 52 yards on 12 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB DeMeco Ryans: Allowed 3 catches for 22 yards on 5 attempts, 1 interception, 7 solo tackles, 7 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 8 blitzes

CB Brandon Boykin: Did not allow a completion on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections, no tackles, 2 kickoff returns for 48 yards

DT Derek Landri: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

DE Trent Cole: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

DE Jason Babin: 4 quarterback hurries on 34 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

Duds

RG Danny Watkins: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurries on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 4 carries

RB LeSean McCoy: Rushed for 81 yards (62 after contact) and a touchdown on 25 carries, 1 fumble, 8 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback pressure on 10 pass block snaps, caught 2 passes for 8 yards on 3 targets, 1 drop

RB Bryce Brown: Rushed for -3 yards (4 after contact) on 4 carries, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 1 pass block snap

SS Kurt Coleman: Allowed 2 catches for 45 yards on 2 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

P Chas Henry: 5 punts for 196 yards, 0 of 5 inside 20, 3 returns for 34 yards, 32.4 net yards per punt

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 5 (+0)

Record: 2-0

I wasn’t that impressed with the Falcons on Monday Night. I felt like they should have been up 20 given how badly the Broncos started and how much they turned the ball over, but they didn’t capitalize like they should have. They lost the yardage total battle and the yards per play battle and if it wasn’t for those 4 turnovers, they probably would have lost at home by double digits. They can’t keep relying on winning the turnover battle to win games. The good news, they got a tough win over a good opponent, Matt Ryan and this passing offense has been as advertised, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 5 touchdowns and no turnovers, and Dunta Robinson looked good in a fill in for injured Brent Grimes. They’ll need him to find that form that caused the Falcons to give him a 6 year, 57 million dollar deal 2 years ago. Up next for the Falcons is a trip to San Diego for a battle of unbeatens.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 24 of 36 for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 4 drops, 108.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 41 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 6 of 11, 2 throw aways, 1 drop, 1 touchdown)

WR Roddy White: 8 catches for 102 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets on 41 pass plays, 3.3 YAC per catch

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 2 catches for 18 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection

SS William Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 18 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 interception

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 42 yards (22 after contact) and a touchdown on 17 carries, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 5 pass block snaps, 1 catch for 1 yard on 1 target

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 carries

WR Julio Jones: 4 catches for 14 yards on 7 targets on 35 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

RE John Abraham: 1 quarterback hit on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 assist

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Eagles expect both DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to play

stevenlourie Eagles, News

When healthy, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin represent one of the two receiving duos in the NFL. Unfortunately for the Eagles, both have injuries that caused them to miss some practice time. Both are listed as questionable, as Maclin has a hip injury and Jackson has a hamstring problem. Both, however, are expected to play, barring any further setbacks between now and game time, despite their questionable tag. Maclin assured reporters he would play Friday after practicing in limited fashion, while multiple sources believe Jackson will play, including the Philadelphia Inquirer and NFL Network’s Jason La Canfora. The Eagles will need all the help they can get as they head home to play a Baltimore team coming off a big Monday Night win.

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Eagles give up on Jaiquawn Jarrett

stevenlourie Eagles, News

Well that was quick. Seeing a team release a 2nd round pick just a year after they draft them is rare. Hell, even seeing a team release a 3rd round pick just a year after they draft them, like the Panthers recently did with Terrell McClain, is rare. However, once Jaiquawn Jarrett fell to 3rd string at safety in Philadelphia, they just decided to give up on him and release him. The 2011 2nd round pick was given every opportunity to start as a rookie, but struggled and lost his job to Kurt Coleman, a mediocre 2010 7th round pick.

Jarrett came back this offseason with a chance to compete for his old job with veteran free agent addition OJ Atogwe and the incumbent Coleman, but Jarrett lost the competition fairly quickly. While he lasted on the roster longer than Atogwe, who was a final cut, he eventually lost his roster spot as the Eagles decided to keep strong special teamers Colt Anderson and David Sims. Sims was acquired from Cleveland primarily for his special teams value for a late round pick right before final cuts. Jarrett has never been able to get the hang of special teams. Anderson, a special teams stud for them last year, was inactive for the opener with injury issues, but when he returned, Jarrett became an unneeded 5th safety and was released.

The starting free safety job is all Kurt Coleman’s for now and he will be given every opportunity to prove he can be a long term starter, but the Eagles may have to turn use an early pick on a safety in the 2013 NFL Draft, for the 3rd time in 4 drafts (starter Nate Allen was a 2010 2nd round pick). Coleman had two picks in the opener, but those were largely due to Brandon Weeden’s ineptitude. Let’s see how he does for the rest of the season. In 2011, Coleman was ProFootballFocus’ 59th ranked safety out of 84 eligible.

As for Jarrett, he predictably went unclaimed on waivers as no one wanted to guarantee his $538,500 dollar salary. However, even though he was a surprise 2nd round pick in 2011, there are probably still some teams out there that see him as someone with upside, someone they could potentially groom into a future starter with the right combination of coaching and luck. Jarrett worked out with the safety needy Jets on Friday, but was not immediately signed. He should catch on somewhere in the next week or couple of weeks.

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Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Eagles, Ravens

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)

Before the season started, I identified 5 teams I thought were overrated and 5 I thought were underrated. The idea was to bet these teams (or against these teams) until I was proven wrong or until the odds makers caught up. It served me well last week. Of the 7 games involving these 10 teams, I nailed 5, including my pick of the week. I unfortunately went 3-6 on my other 9 to finish at .500 for the week ATS, but it’s good to see that my overrated/underrated choices seem to have been pretty accurate. I’ll try to use those this week, unless I feel the odds makers caught up, with two exceptions (San Francisco and Buffalo, two I got wrong last week).

Here, I don’t really feel the odds makers caught up and there’s a good reason for that. Baltimore got a blow out win last week, as I predicted they would, but they did it against Cincinnati. Cincinnati was one of my overrated teams as well, so the Ravens remain overrated because they blew out an overrated opponent. Cincinnati didn’t beat a single playoff team last year and has been hit by the injury bug as hard as maybe any team in football.

Then there’s the issue of Andy Dalton’s arm strength. Jay Gruden did a great job of scheming around his physical limitations last year, but you can only do that for so long. He struggled down the stretch last season, particularly against tougher opponents, and continued that in the preseason and in the opener against Baltimore, where he completed 22 of 37 for 221 yards and a pick. Those numbers don’t even tell the whole story. Only 80 of those 221 yards were in the air; the rest were after the catch. He settled for short stuff all night, completing just 4 passes that went more than 10 yards through the air (4 of 11) and his adjusted QB rating of 66.2 was 26th out of 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL week 1.

Some interpret that game as the Ravens being better than people thought. I’m sticking with my original prediction that the Bengals are just worse than we thought. As for the Ravens, they seem to have an improved offense, but they lost several key contributors defensively and have several others aging and they have yet to prove to me that their struggles on the road and overall inconsistencies are gone. The latter is very important for this game. Yes, they blew out Cincinnati at home, but until they prove they can be consistent and win on the road, something they didn’t do last year, I’m going to continue to pick against them in those situations.

Last year, this team was 4-5 on the road, as opposed to 9-0 at home. They lost to Tennessee by 13, Jacksonville by 5, Seattle by 5, San Diego by 20, and New England by 3, while beating St. Louis by 30, Pittsburgh by 3, Cleveland by 10, and Cincinnati by 8. Only their near win in New England and their win in Pittsburgh were impressive road performances (maybe the blowout win over St. Louis, but they won just 2 games).

They also fell flat after big performances, losing to Seattle and Tennessee after beating Pittsburgh twice. They were just 3-5 SU on the road coming off a win last year. Normally, that wouldn’t trouble me, but they’re 13-17 SU in that situation since Harbaugh/Flacco came in back in 2008. It’s really weird for a team that’s 37-7 SU in all other situations.

This week, they’re coming off a big win, a coming out party of sorts on Monday Night Football, week 1, a blowout win over a divisional foe. However, they did the same thing last year week 1 and lost by 13 in Tennessee the next week. This year, they go to Philadelphia week 2. They are a much better team than Tennessee was last year.

Let’s go on to Philadelphia. I had them as slightly underrated going into the season. I had them making a big improvement over last season, but apparently so did everyone else. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis.

The Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. Since 2002, 42 teams have 35 or more turnovers and 36 have had 20 or fewer. The 42 teams who’ve had 35 or more turnovers have had 28.3 turnovers on average the next season. That’s only 2 turnovers more than the 26.3 that the 36 teams with 20 or fewer turnovers had the following season.

This year, they may be even more talented. However, the odds makers set their over/under at 10, one of only 9 teams with an over/under of 10 or more and the only non-playoff team in 2011. Because of that, they lost most of their “underratedness” and their week 1 line against Cleveland, -7.5 in Cleveland, was completely reasonable. There was no line value there.

This week, I think there is some line value. At the very least, these two teams are probably about even, so this line should be -3 or higher and that’s not taking into account Baltimore’s consistency and road issues from last season. The final score from last week’s game is a little misleading and skews this line a little, as does Baltimore’s blowout win over the secretly lowly Bengals. Yes, the Eagles did barely beat the Browns by 1 in Cleveland, but they outgained them 456 to 210.

So what happened? Well, the Eagles lost the turnover battle 5 to 4, which was a common problem for them last year and one that will have to get cleaned up. The other issue was just what the Browns did with those turnovers, as opposed to what the Eagles’ did. The Browns returned their 5 takeaways for 88 yards, while the Eagles managed just 13 yards on their 4 takeaways. Preventing the other team from getting a big gain or a score once they have the turnover is way more skill than luck. Even if the Eagles lose the turnover battle again this week, they could still win if they outgain the Ravens, so long as they don’t get killed with turnovers.

They may turn the ball over a couple of times, but so could the Ravens. The Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league. It wasn’t just the Browns’ offense making them look good. The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football.

Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year. He really played well against the Browns.

Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better and that carries over into last week.

With DRC and Asomugha both playing like shutdown cornerbacks, they should be able to put the clamps on the Ravens’ new found explosive offense. They’ll certainly find it a lot tougher to move the ball in Philadelphia against the Eagles than they did at home against a Bengals team missing two key cornerbacks and their top pass rusher.

As for the Ravens’ defense, they’re still good, but they did allow 322 yards of offense to the Bengals, which is a cause for concern. Terrell Suggs is out and Jarret Johnson and Cory Redding, two key parts of their run defense last year, are gone. Young players have to play more than they’re used to and they didn’t play very well against the Bengals. On top of that, Ed Reed and Ray Lewis are aging. Unless the Eagles get killed in the turnover battle like they did so many times last year, they should be able to win this game at home and, as I mentioned earlier, turnover differentials can be very inconsistent on a year to year basis.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Baltimore Ravens 17

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2 (-110) 3 units

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Philadelphia Eagles: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles

Last week: 4 (-6)

Record: 1-0

I had the Eagles making a big jump this season because history suggested their turnover differential would improve, because of their high Pythagorean Expectation last season, and because of how they ended last year, particularly defensively. Well, the defense looked great. I know the Browns suck offensively, but you don’t hold a quarterback to 11 of 34 and force 4 turnovers if you don’t have a good defense. That will continue to serve them well this season. They also have a solid offensive line and good offensive playmakers.

The problem seems to be Michael Vick. Of the Eagles 5 turnovers, he committed 4, which is why the Eagles barely defeated the Browns despite winning the yardage battle 456-210. If they can clean things up at home against the Ravens, they can still be one of the better teams in the league. If not and Vick is just done being an asset at this stage of his career, the Nick Foles chants will grow louder and this will just be a team held hostage by their quarterback problems.

Philadelphia

Studs

RB LeSean McCoy: 110 rushing yards (53 after contact) on 20 carries, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, 6 catches for 26 yards on 9 attempts, 0 quarterback pressures on 12 pass blocks

LE Jason Babin: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 28 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles and 3 stops on 12 run snaps, 1 penalty

CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Allowed 1 completion for 12 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 2 interceptions, 1 tackle on 21 run snaps

CB Nnamdi Asomugha: Allowed 1 completion for 24 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 tackle on 22 run snaps

Duds

QB Michael Vick: 29 of 56 for 317 yards, 2 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 4 throw aways, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 58.4 adjusted QB rating, 25 pressured drop backs, 27 rushing yards (3 after contact) on 7 carries, 1 broken tackle, 2 fumbles

RG Danny Watkins: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback pressures on 65 pass blocks, 2 penalties, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 carries

WR Jeremy Maclin: 7 catches for 96 yards and 1 touchdown on 14 targets on 56 pass snaps, 2 interceptions when thrown at, 2 penalties

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Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Browns, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

One of the things I love doing is betting against rookie quarterbacks week 1. They tend to, predictably, struggle in their first NFL action. Since 1994, rookie quarterbacks have completed 55% of their passes, averaged 6 yards YPA, and thrown twice as many picks as touchdowns during weeks 1-4. I get 5 chances to do that this week, as Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Russell Wilson will all get the week 1 start for their respective teams. The Browns’ Brandon Weeden is 28 years old, but he’ll still have to make the transition from collegiate level defenses to NFL level defenses. The Eagles’ stout defense is going to be far tougher than anything he ever faced in the Big 12.

Weeden also has several major flaws, which is a big part of the reason why he wasn’t a top-10 pick. He tends to take unnecessary risks with the football and can get flustered when the pocket collapses. These are hardly rare attributes for rookie quarterbacks to have, but the issue with Weeden is, unlike most rookie quarterbacks, he doesn’t have 2-3 years to work through those flaws. If he were 22 or 23, sure he would have gone in the top-10, probably even a little bit ahead of Tannehill, but he’s 28, 29 this season. He’s actually older than Aaron Rodgers.

That’s why he fell to 22 to the Browns, where he wasn’t even the Browns’ 1st choice. They wanted Trent Richardson, Kendall Wright, and then Brandon Weeden, taking Weeden in the early 2nd round or late 1st after trading up, but when Wright went 20 to the Titans surprisingly, they just took Weeden. That tells me that the Browns didn’t see him as a polished prospect either. He won’t look like a polished prospect this year and especially not in his first game and against such tough competition.

Weeden has obviously physical advantages over incumbent Colt McCoy, but one of the things McCoy was really good at was avoiding turnovers. The Browns had just 19 turnovers last year. There have been 36 teams since 2002 with 20 or fewer turnovers. In their next season, those teams, have had, on average, 9.64 more turnovers and won 2.69 fewer games. It’s not hard to see how the Browns will turn the ball over more this season and that will limit how much the newcomers will improve things. They’ll be better than the 30th ranked offense they were last year, but not a lot better and they will probably really struggle early in the year as Weeden gets adjusted to the NFL and fellow 1st rounder Trent Richardson gets healthy.

Weeden also won’t have a lot of help. Because they were unable to get Wright, their receiving corps remains very thin. Greg Little could have a breakout year if everything goes right, but Little was one of the worst in the league last year in yards per targets (partially McCoy’s fault) and after him, everything is an even bigger question mark. Mohamed Massaquoi, a mediocre receiver, will start opposite him while their depth behind the two starters are two rookies, Travis Benjamin, a raw 4th rounder, and Josh Gordon, a 2nd round pick in the Supplemental draft who hasn’t played in a game that counts in almost 2 calendar years. Tight end Ben Watson, meanwhile, is a declining player. The Browns add two other rookies to their offense, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz and running back Trent Richardson, but the former was just a 2nd rounder so he might not be that great early on and the latter is less than a month removed from his 2nd knee surgery of the offseason so, even if he plays, it won’t be a full workload and he won’t be his normal self. This is a very young and inexperienced offense playing a great defense.

The biggest strength of the Eagles’ defense is their pass rush. They were tied for the league lead with 50 sacks last year, lead by 29 sacks from Trent Cole and Jason Babin combined, and could be even better this year as they add rotational rookies Fletcher Cox and Vinny Curry and return Brandon Graham from injury. They legitimately go 6 deep at defensive end with Cole, Babin, Graham, Curry, Darryl Tapp, and Phillip Hunt. For what it’s worth, I think they have 6 defensive ends better than Frostee Rucker, who starts at defensive end for the Eagles. They go 3 deep at defensive tackle with Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Cox. I think they might have the deepest defensive line in football. Joe Thomas is an excellent left tackle for the Browns, but they’ll give him a tough test and they should be able to exploit the holes the Browns have at other spots on the line. Aside from Thomas, only center Alex Mack is a solid starter on this offensive line, assuming Schwartz predictably struggles out of the gate as a rookie. Weeden will be under pressure all night and, as I mentioned, that’s something he has trouble with.

Moving back on the Eagles defense, they added two much needed starters at linebacker this offseason, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Though the latter is a 2nd round rookie, linebackers typically don’t take as long to transition to the NFL. Their secondary also makes a lot more sense this year than last year, even though they lost Asante Samuel. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will no longer be playing on the slot, where he is such a poor fit. Heading into a contract year, DRC should be motivated and playing outside again will allow him to have a bounce back year.

Now on the slot is 4th round rookie Brandon Boykin. He might have been the top coverage cornerback in the draft after Morris Claiborne, but fell because of his lack of size and injury. He’s healthy now and his lack of size doesn’t matter much on the slot, where he figures to have a positive impact. Meanwhile, Nnamdi Asomugha will no longer be playing in zone coverage, like they had him in for the first 12 games of last season. Asomugha was a terrible fit in that scheme and played much better in their final 4 games once they allowed him to play man. He’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league in the right coverage scheme and it’s no coincidence they had the league’s best passing defense in their final 4 games once Asomugha started playing much better.

It’s for that and several other reasons why I think the Eagles will be very good this year. Their +68 points differential was best among non-playoff teams by a mile (San Diego was closest at +29). In fact, only 8 teams finished with a higher points differential, which means the Eagles played like a 10 or 11 win team last year, a win total they could have had if they had an average record in close games. Turnovers and records in games decided by less than 7 tend to average out on a year to year basis. They Eagles had 38 turnovers last year. Teams that turn the ball over 35 times or more in a season have on average 9.7 fewer turnovers the next season and win on average 1.61 more games, since 2002. Add 1.61 wins to what this team’s points differential suggested their wins total should have been and you get an 11-12 win team. This year, they may be even more talented. They would have been in my underrated group in my season preview if they weren’t such a popular “sleeper” pick that there’s basically no line value with them anymore. They’re -9 here on the road with juice and were one of just 8 teams to have an over/under set at 10 or more wins.

The Browns defense has no chance of stopping the Eagles’ offense. They ranked 5th in the league with 19.2 points per game allowed, ranked 5th against the pass with 6.7 YPA, and ranked 21st against the run with 4.4 YPC. They did all this despite only 20 turnovers. As they are offensively, turnovers are very unpredictable on a yearly basis defensively. The 38 teams who have managed 20 or fewer takeaways since 2002 have had 7.53 more takeaways and won 1.41 more games the following season.

However, they have been ravaged by injuries this offseason, losing Phil Taylor, Chris Gocong, and James-Michael Johnson, while Scott Fujita will miss this game with suspension, meaning they’ll be without 3 of their top 4 linebackers, forcing undrafted rookie LJ Fort to start at linebacker. Taylor’s absence will force 3rd round rookie John Hughes to start at defensive tackle. Hughes was a major reach in the 3rd round. He didn’t even think he had a chance to go before the 4th round and didn’t plan his draft party until day 3 of the draft (rounds 4-7). The good news is that it looks like Joe Haden will not be suspended for this one, but the Eagles can just easily pick on opposite cornerback Sheldon Brown, who is heading into his age 33 season. The Browns have one good defensive back (Haden), one good linebacker (D’Qwell Jackson), and one good defensive lineman (Jabaal Sheard) and that’s about it. That won’t be nearly enough to stop the Eagles, who averaged 24.8 points per game last year, despite those 38 turnovers.

The Eagles finished last season on an impressive 4-0 run and turned into the team that no one wanted to have to face in the playoffs, outscoring teams 125-46 over that stretch. Of course, they didn’t have very tough competition during that stretch (@Miami, vs. NY Jets, @ Dallas, vs. Washington), but they don’t have tough competition here either and should be able to blow out the Browns in Weeden’s debut. The only reason this isn’t a big bet is because I hate betting on road favorite of more than a touchdown (they tend to only cover about 40% of the time historically). It should be an easy blowout though.

Philadelphia Eagles 34 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against spread: Philadelphia Eagles -9 (-115) 2 units

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Philadelphia Eagles Final Roster Analysis

stevenlourie Eagles, Final Roster Analysis

Quarterbacks

Michael Vick was obviously on the team, so was 3rd round pick Nick Foles, even if he hadn’t stepped up in Mike Kafka’s absence and nailed down the #2 quarterback job, despite the team viewing him as a developmental 3rd quarterback at the start of the offseason. Kafka went from primary backup to injured to 3rd string and when he returned, he found that Trent Edwards had beaten him out for the 3rd string job. Not wanting to keep 4 quarterbacks, the Eagles tried to trade the 2010 4th round pick Kafka, but did not have any luck and made him a final cut. He should catch on somewhere as a backup.

Running Backs

LeSean McCoy was a lock as was primary backup Dion Lewis. Bryce Brown and Chris Polk were 7th round and undrafted rookies respectively and there was talk about if the team would keep both and if they did, would that mean releasing true fullback Stanley Havili. Instead the Eagles opted to keep all 5, keeping 4 running backs and a fullback. Brown and Polk won’t see much action as rookies unless injuries strike, but it’s clear the team has interest in developing them.

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Receiving Corps

The Eagles’ top 3 receivers, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Jason Avant were all locks as was tight end Brent Celek. Tight end Clay Harbor and wide receiver Damaris Johnson were also pretty close to being locks. Johnson was an undrafted free agent, but nailed down a roster spot with his strong play on special teams. He was named the team’s primary punt returner and 2nd kick returner. Harbor, meanwhile, was a big part of their two-tight end sets from a year ago. The Eagles didn’t have a better option on the roster and, in fact, didn’t keep another tight end, cutting a pair of undrafted free agents Emil Igwenagu and Chase Ford, both of whom were added to the practice squad.

With the two Johnsons, Maclin, and Avant at wide receiver, the Eagles had 4 players competing for the final receiver spot, with Riley Cooper, the incumbent, nursing an injury. He’s unlikely to play week 1, but the Eagles kept him on the roster, cutting 6th round rookie Marvin McNutt, former 4th round pick of the Rams Mardy Gilyard, and Chad Hall, a “veteran” who has been up and down with the team several times over the last couple of years. McNutt was added to the practice squad.

Offensive Line

The Eagles had their starting 5 on the offensive line locked in before final cuts, with King Dunlap at left tackle, Evan Mathis at left guard, Jason Kelce at center, Danny Watkins at right guard, and Todd Herremans at right tackle. Demetress Bell, who surprisingly lost the left tackle battle to the inexperienced King Dunlap, was a roster lock because his 3.25 million dollar salary was fully guaranteed. Dennis Kelly, a 5th round rookie, also locked like a pretty safe bet for the team.

They kept those 7, but only one other, reserve center Dallas Reynolds, a member of their team last year. They cut 6th round rookie Brandon Washington and looked awfully thin on the inside of their offensive line with only Reynolds backing up all 3 positions, though if an injury struck to one of the guards, Bell could fill in. The Eagles got their 9th offensive lineman after final cuts, signing Nate Menkin, an undrafted free agent cut by the Texans. It’s a bad sign for the Washington that the Eagles brought in an outside undrafted free agent over keeping an insider 6th round pick.

Defensive Line

The defensive line is easily the Eagles’ deepest group and it might be the deepest defensive line group in the league. Starters Jason Babin, Cullen Jenkins, Derek Landri, and Trent Cole were all locks, while Fletcher Cox, their 1st round pick defensive tackle, who figures to have a big rotational role as a rookie, was also a lock. Also locks, 2010 1st round pick Brandon Graham, who is final healthy and heading into a make or break year, and 2nd round pick rookie Vinny Curry, both defensive ends. The Eagles also put Mike Patterson on the non-football injury list, taking him off the active roster as he unfortunately is not recovered from offseason brain surgery.

With Curry coming in and Graham coming back off injury, Darryl Tapp, a talented reserve defensive end was expendable at his 2.575 million dollar salary, but he took a paycut and stayed with the team, even though he’ll be just their 5th defensive end. Phillip Hunt was also kept as the Eagles kept 6 talented defensive ends. Cedric Thornton, a 2011 undrafted free agent, beat out Antonio Dixon, coming off injury for the final defensive line spot, and will be the 4th defensive tackle. Given how much they like rotation on the defensive line, Thornton could see pretty significant action this year with Patterson out and Dixon gone. Dixon was a starter in 2010, but was coming off injury and didn’t fit the new defensive coaching staff’s scheme so he was let go.

Linebackers

At linebacker, DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks, offseason additions through trade and the draft respectively, were locked in, as was Akeem Jordan, who somewhat surprisingly won the weak side linebacker job over Jamar Chaney. Chaney was kept as a reserve on the strong side because of his versatility and experience at all linebacker positions.

Casey Matthews beat out Ryan Rau, an undrafted free agent late added to the practice squad, for the backup middle linebacker job, in part because he was a 4th round pick just last year and in part because of his abilities in coverage and potential in become a situational coverage linebacker. Brian Rolle, another candidate for the starting weak side job, was kept as a reserve weak side linebacker over Keenan Clayton. With 10 spots going to defensive linemen, they only had 6 spots available for linebackers max, so Clayton was also cut.

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Secondary

Starters Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie were locked in, as was Brandon Boykin, a 4th round rookie who locked down the nickel cornerback job. With him locked in there and on special teams as kick returner, Joselio Hanson became unnecessary and the slot specialist was cut for more versatile cornerbacks. Curtis Marsh, a 3rd round pick last year whose upside they still really like, was kept as one of those cornerbacks as was, slightly more surprisingly Brandon Hughes, which meant the end of the road for Trevard Lindley, a 2010 4th round pick.

At safety, Nate Allen is one starter and Kurt Coleman won the other job, somewhat by default over Jaiquawn Jarrett, a 2011 2nd round pick, and veteran OJ Atogwe. There was some speculation that Jarrett, widely considered a major disappointment thus far in his career would be cut already, but they aren’t ready to give up on him and instead cut the veteran Atogwe, who might be at the end of his line after being cut by two safety needy teams, Washington and Philadelphia, this offseason. Two special teamers, Colt Anderson and David Sims, got the final 2 jobs, with Sims being acquired from Cleveland for a late round pick.

Specialists

Alex Henery and Chas Henry are back as place kicker and punter respectively and are their only two kickers. Jon Dorenbos is also back as long snapper. Boykin, as I’ve mentioned, is the starting kick returner, while Damaris Johnson won the punt returner job. He also backs up Boykin as kick returner and Boykin, likewise does the same at punt returner. Bryce Brown, another rookie, is the 3rd guy if anything happens to the first two.

Practice Squad

WR Marvin McNutt

WR BJ Cunningham

MLB Ryan Rau

TE Chase Ford

TE Emil Igwenagu

C Chase Beeler

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