Falcons

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-8)

This line was at 6.5 last week. Now it’s at 9 and the public is still all over the Saints. The Saints are awesome and the Falcons suck. How can the Saints not win by double digits right? Well, that seems to be what the public is thinking as the public is all over the Saints. That alone leads me to think about going with Atlanta. Atlanta hasn’t appeared to put forth much effort over the past few weeks, losing 4 straight by a combined 74 points. It’s very possible that they’ve just quit as they are unaccustomed to this kind of losing. However, I think they’re still capable of putting forth a decent performance at home and keep this competitive in a game they actually care about, with the rival Saints coming to town.

They have always done well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, at least until this year. Off of a loss, they are 20-10 ATS since 2008, though just 2-5 ATS this season. I think they can summon some of that for this one, now that they’ve officially hit rock bottom and can’t go any deeper. They’ve also been a very good home team in the Mike Smith era, going 30-12 straight up. They are just 2-3 there this year, but they’ve still been a much better home team than road team and of their recent rough stretch, only one game was at home.

The Saints, meanwhile, have not been the same team on the road over the past few years. Drew Brees’ quarterback rating on the road since 2008 is about 12 points lower and this year, they’ve lost in New York to the Jets and in New England. They also barely won in Tampa Bay. Only their 8 point win in Chicago has been impressive for the Saints on the road this season and even that wasn’t that impressive. The Saints are an incredibly dominant home team, a huge part of the reason why they are moving the chains at an 82% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents, but they’re not the same on the road.

I think this line might be a little inflated. The Saints could also be caught looking forward to Seattle next week and Carolina the week after that, after last week’s big win over the 49ers. I’m not confident at all though because it’s very possible the Falcons have just mailed in the season and the Saints are legitimately a top-3 team in the NFL, while the Falcons might be a bottom-3 team, but the Falcons should be the right side.

New Orleans Saints 34 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against spread: Atlanta +9

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-7) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

I had the Falcons winning 8 games before the season, but I never could have imagined a team with a quarterback like Matt Ryan could ever win 4 or fewer games. However, they have a very realistic chance of that happening right now, at 2-7. That’s just what happens when you have nothing functional around your quarterback. Matt Ryan is actually doing a very good job this season, as the Falcons are moving the chains at a 75% rate, above average, despite problems on the offensive line and injuries to his weapons. However, there’s nothing he can do about the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a league leading 82% rate. As a result, they are 27th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That’s actually significantly worse than Tampa Bay, who is better than their record. Tampa Bay is 26th, but they are moving the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents. They’ve been competitive in most of their games and their point differential of -63 is actually better than Atlanta’s point differential of -65. They have some very good players, including Gerald McCoy and Darrelle Revis, the latter of whom is unfairly being blamed for the Buccaneers’ record, despite being thrown on less frequently than any other cornerback in the NFL. In terms of DVOA, they are actually 20th, while the Falcons are 22nd. The Falcons have no business being favored on the road here.

The Falcons are also in a bad spot as favorites before a Thursday Night Game. They play the Saints next week on Thursday Night Football and that could be a huge distraction for them. They could have a very hard time getting up for the Buccaneers when they host the Saints in 4 days. Favorites are 27-50 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Falcons are in a good spot coming off of back-to-back losses of 21+. Teams are 38-20 ATS in that spot since 2002 as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation.

However, I think it’s a different dynamic with the Falcons being favorites. They are the first team to be road favorites off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more since 1999 and only 5 have been road favorites in that situation since 1989, going 1-4 ATS. It’s obviously not a huge sample size or anything, but it makes sense that the Falcons might not be as undervalued and overlooked here as road favorites as they otherwise would be. The Buccaneers are in a bad spot coming off of a close home win as underdogs. Teams are 34-58 ATS since 2002 off of a home win by 1-3 points as home underdogs. It’s not a huge play on the Buccaneers for that reason, but we’re getting value with them and they should win this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 27 (-1)

Record: 2-7

Matt Ryan is actually doing a very good job this season, as the Falcons are moving the chains at a 75% rate, above average, despite problems on the offensive line and injuries to his weapons. However, there’s nothing he can do about the defense, which is allowing opponents to move the chains at a league leading 82% rate. As a result, they are 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, behind Tampa Bay, where they go this week. I had this team winning 8 games before the season, but I never could have imagined a team with a quarterback like Matt Ryan could ever win 4 or fewer games. But I guess that’s what happens when he has nothing functional around him.

Week 10 Studs

DT Jonathan Babineaux

Week 10 Duds

C Peter Konz

DT Peria Jerry

MLB Akeem Dent

FS Thomas DeCoud

SS William Moore

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (-6)

Record: 2-6

There are bad stop units and then there is the Atlanta Falcons’ “stop” unit, which has forced a league worst 30 punts, as well as just 8 takeaways and 2 failed 4th downs. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, which is 3rd worst only to Jacksonville and San Diego. Matt Ryan has done a very admirable job despite losing most of his weapons, completing 67.8% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, leading the offense to a 75% rate of moving the chains. However, they just can’t keep up with what their defense is giving up. Their schedule isn’t easy from here. They are very good at home usually, but they have Seattle, New Orleans, and Carolina all coming to town, with the Redskins being the only opponent representing a very winnable game. On the road, they go to Green Bay (probably once Rodgers returns), San Francisco, and a sneaky good Buffalo team. They do go to Tampa Bay, but there aren’t a lot of easy wins left on this schedule. This is just the season from hell for this football team.

Week 9 Studs

None

Week 9 Duds

DT Peria Jerry

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Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Falcons, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Seattle Seahawks (7-1) at Atlanta Falcons (2-6)

I wish I had gotten this line when it was at Atlanta +6 or higher. Despite all of the action being on Seattle, the line is dropping significantly from +6.5 at some places to now +5 at some places. It’s obvious that this is a trap line and the sharps are all over the underdogs. It’s not hard to see why. The Seahawks have not been playing well of late, thanks largely to injuries to guys like Russell Okung and Bobby Wagner. Okung remains out and, while Wagner returned a couple of weeks ago, but he hasn’t been nearly the same player thanks to a high ankle sprain, something that could linger. Also out is Sidney Rice, who tore his ACL and Percy Harvin has yet to return to replace him. He’s not expected back this week.

The Seahawks have won each of their last 2 games, but they won by a combined 8 points against the Rams and Buccaneers, among two of the worst teams in the NFL. Particularly bad was their mere 3 point home win over the Buccaneers in overtime. The Buccaneers are winless and the Seahawks are supposed to be a dominant home team. The Seahawks are in a bad spot here as road favorites off of back to back wins as favorites in which they failed to cover. Teams are 13-23 ATS in that spot since 1989. They’re also in a bad spot coming off of last week’s big overtime win. Teams are 22-41 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of an overtime home win.

Because of their recent struggles, the Seahawks aren’t really as good as their record. They are 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are 8th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents. The Falcons, meanwhile, might be better than their record, meanwhile. Remember, they are just 1-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, a differential that is 26th in the NFL. They’re also getting healthier as this is Steven Jackson’s 3rd game back and Roddy White returns. Even with the reverse line movement, we are still getting a little bit of line value with the Falcons before we even get into trends.

Two spots the Falcons have always been good in are at home and off of a loss, at least in the Matt Ryan era. They are 35-9 straight up at home under Matt Ryan in 2008, including 26-17 ATS. Off of a loss, Matt Ryan is 19-7 ATS, including 7-1 ATS as an underdog. They’ve struggled a bit more than usual in those situations this year, but it’s still worth noting. Meanwhile, the Falcons have no distractions that would prevent them from possibly pulling an upset here, with a trip to Tampa Bay next on the schedule. Teams are 35-11 ATS as non-divisional home underdogs before being divisional road favorites since 1989. I wish this line was still above the key number of 6 so it could be a significant play, but the Falcons should be the right side.

Seattle Seahawks 19 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta +5.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)

The Panthers are better than their record. They are a few plays away from 6-1 and have the 5th best point differential in the NFL, on the strength of the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They are moving the chains at an 80% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 3rd best rate in the NFL. Unfortunately, Vegas knows this too as this line is pretty high at 7.5. We are getting some line value with the Panthers as I have this line calculated at -10, but not a ton. The Panthers also always seem to blow out bad teams and lose close games to decent or better teams. After last week’s 31-13 win over the Buccaneers, they are now 4-0 ATS under Cam Newton as favorites of 6 or more, winning by an average of 19.0 points per game.

The Falcons are in a good situation too though. Teams are 96-55 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs off of a road loss, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use as a cutoff for your sample size. They also usually bounce back well off of a loss in the Mike Smith era, going 20-7 ATS off of a loss since he took over in 2008, including 7-0 ATS as an underdog. The Panthers, meanwhile, could be distracted with a trip to San Francisco on deck. Favorites of 7 or more are 37-71 ATS since 1989 before being underdogs of 7 or more. Atlanta could be distracted as well with a home game against the Seahawks on deck, but they really need this divisional game to save their season so they should be focused. As long as the line is bigger than 7, I’m going to take the Falcons, but I’m not confident.

Carolina Panthers 30 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Carolina +7.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 20 (-1)

Record: 2-5

Tony Gonzalez changed his mind about his openness to a trade this week and, while one didn’t happen because the Falcons management is not ready to give up on the season, it’s a sign that perhaps internally the team no longer believes they can be a playoff team. They certainly didn’t look like one in Arizona and they have arguably one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Their opponent’s rate of moving the chains is at 79%, 3rd worst in the NFL, as they have forced 27 punts, 6 turnovers, and 2 failures on 4th down all season in 7 games.

Week 8 Studs

RT Jeremy Trueblood

DT Jonathan Babineaux

CB Asante Samuel

Week 8 Duds

QB Matt Ryan

LT Lamar Holmes

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Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-4) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4)

The Falcons are 2-4, but they are better than their record. All 6 of their games have been close and all 4 of their losses were winnable games lost by a touchdown or less. They’ve also had a very tough schedule, as, with the exception of the winless Buccaneers last week, all of their opponents this season are 3-4 or better.

Their defense is horrific, one of the worst in the NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate that is only 1/10th of a percent better than the last place Jacksonville Jaguars. However, they still have Matt Ryan, who is doing an unheralded good job leading this offense, despite injuries all over his receiving corps and struggles from his offensive line. The offense is moving the chains at a 79% rate and they get a boost this week as Steven Jackson is expected to return from injury to hopefully provide some more balance, though it’s hard to trust a 30-year-old back coming off an injury.

Still, I think they are definitely better than the Cardinals, who are moving the chains at a 71% rate and allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74% rate. The Cardinals are also in a bad spot as small home favorites before a bye. Teams who are favored by 3 or less going into a bye are just 11-30 ATS since 2002, an incredibly bad record.

This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here, as these two teams are 20th (Falcons) and 23rd (Cardinals) in my Power Rankings. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Falcons are in a bad spot and could be distracted by a road game in Carolina next week. Non-divisional road dogs are 47-72 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. Still, I like the Falcons’ chances of not just covering this small spread, but also winning the pulling the upset and winning game outright.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Arizona Cardinals 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Atlanta +2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#20)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 18 (-2)

Record: 2-4

If the Falcons are serious about contending for a playoff spot this season, they should try to trade for the recently benched Tyson Clabo, who is currently with Miami. Clabo has been awfully thus far at right tackle in Miami and was rightfully benched, but he was very solid in Atlanta for many years before they cut him for cap reasons this off-season. It’s possible his age is the reason for his struggles, in his age 32 season, but it’s also very possible that the zone blocking scheme in Miami had a lot to do with it. He could still be a significant upgrade over Jeremy Trueblood and Lamar Holmes and he’d come very cheap. They could probably get him for a late round pick and force the Dolphins to eat a significant chunk of his the prorated remaining portion of his 2.5 million dollar salary.

Week 7 Studs

LE Malliciah Goodman

SS William Moore

Week 7 Duds

LE Stansly Mopanga

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4)

I could go either way on this one. On one hand, Tampa Bay may be 0-5, but DVOA calls them the best 0-5 team ever (at least as far back as they have data, going back to 1991). I don’t have the historical context to determine whether or not that’s true, but it makes sense and they’re definitely better than their record would suggest. Every single team they’ve faced thus far has been 3-3 or better and 3 of the losses came by 3 points or less.

The Falcons are arguably the easiest team they’ve faced thus far. In terms of record, they are definitely the easiest at 1-4 and they’ve already lost to 3 of the teams the Buccaneers have faced. Injuries have decimated this team on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they are missing starting defensive end Kroy Biermann for the season and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon indefinitely. This is killing a defense that was pretty thin and lacked impact players to begin with, after losing Vance Walker and John Abraham this off-season.

Offensively, left tackle Sam Baker has missed time and will probably miss this week as well, forcing them to once again start the terrible tackle duo of Lamar Holmes and Jeremy Trueblood. Steven Jackson remains out, forcing the overmatched Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling to try to establish some sort of a running game, which they’ve been inconsistent at best at doing, especially behind an offensive line that has just 1 starter in the same spot he was in last season. Now both Julio Jones and Roddy White are out, Jones for the season and White for at least this week as his leg problems have gotten just too limiting to play through. He’ll miss the first game of his 133 game career this week and he was a shadow of himself in the first 5 games of the season, catching 14 passes for 129 yards.

There’s a chance they could win 6 or fewer games and teams who do so rarely cover as favorites of 6 or more. Teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse. The Falcons could be in this situation this week, but there’s no guarantee.

On the other hand, the Falcons are a proud veteran team with a top-10 quarterback and they’ve had a week off. I actually don’t think they’ll win 6 or fewer games. I have them finishing at 7-9 right now, though that’s obviously subject to change. As bad as their defense is, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, but they still move the chains at a 79% rate offensively.

The Falcons have also faced a tough schedule, as all 5 of their opponents are currently .500 or better. All 4 of their losses have come by 6 points or less and even though their only win was by just 7, they led the Rams 21-0 early before garbage time. If they can beat the Rams by a touchdown, they can beat the inferior Buccaneers by a touchdown as well, even after injuries. They’re also historically very good at home and off of a loss in the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era. They are 25-17 ATS (34-9 SU) at home in games in which Matt Ryan starts and they are 18-6 ATS off of a loss in games in which Matt Ryan starts. I’m going with the Falcons to prove they’re not quite as bad as people think against an inferior opponent, but I have no confidence.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -7

Confidence: None

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