Last week: 19 (+1)
Record: 1-4
On bye.
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Falcons
Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#19)
Last week: 18 (-1)
Record: 1-4
I had the Falcons at 8 wins before the season, but the sheer amount of injuries they’ve suffered have made even that really optimistic. Kroy Biermann and Julio Jones are out for the season. Sean Weatherspoon is out for most of the season. Steven Jackson is still out, while Roddy White’s injuries have gotten worse as a hamstring injury has been added to his ankle injury, which has him out indefinitely. It probably won’t happen, but they should trade Tony Gonzalez, save some money and get a pick for a guy who is retiring after the season anyway. Plus, they would get themselves some good karma and send him somewhere where he can actually win a Super Bowl like New England or Kansas City.
Week 5 Studs
LG Justin Blalock
TE Tony Gonzalez
Week 5 Duds
LOLB Joplo Bartu
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New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick
New York Jets (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Ordinarily, the Falcons dominate at home and ordinarily they dominate off of a loss, at least in the Matt Ryan era. In which started by Matt Ryan, the Falcons are 34-8 straight up at home, including 25-16 ATS. Off of a loss, Matt Ryan is 18-5 ATS. However, they were at home off of a loss last week and they still lost to the Patriots, in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score would have suggested. Though the Falcons lost by just 7, the Falcons’ win probability was about 1% with 6:18 left to go in the 4th quarter. It took an onside kick recovery to even make it competitive.
It’s very, very likely the Falcons just aren’t that good. I had them going 8-8 at the beginning of the season (thanks to a tougher schedule, off-season losses, and the fact that they’d have less “luck” recovering fumbles and winning close games). However, thanks to the Falcons’ injuries (Sean Weatherspoon, Steven Jackson, Kroy Biermann, Roddy White, Sam Baker), they might be 8-8 at best to finish this season. This is probably as bad of a Falcon team as we’ve seen as 2007, the final year before Matt Ryan/Mike Smith.
Given that, I don’t think they deserve to be 10 point favorites here, even at home and off of a loss. Besides, they are just 7-6 ATS under Matt Ryan as home favorites of a touchdown or more and have won just 1 home game by more than 10 points in their last 12 home games. The Jets, their opponents this week, aren’t terrible. They can’t move the ball offensively and having Santonio Holmes out and Stephen Hill being a game time decision at best won’t help. However, they have a fantastic defense that has allowed opponents to move the chains on 61% of chances, the best rate in the NFL.
They’ll be able to frustrate Matt Ryan all game, especially with a poor offensive line and running game unable to take the pressure off of him and a limited Roddy White, who re-aggravated his ankle injury against New England. They have one of the best front 7s and defensive fronts in the league and can absolutely dominate this game in the trenches. The Jets also have a situational trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off a road loss since 2008 and cover at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. It’s not a big play on the Jets because of the situational trends on the Falcons’ side and the Jets’ injuries, but they should be the right side. This line is too big. The Falcons are my Survivor Pick, however, in a tough week for Survivor Picks.
Atlanta Falcons 20 New York Jets 13 Survivor Pick
Pick against spread: NY Jets +10
Confidence: Low
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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#18)
Last week: 14 (-4)
Record: 1-3
The Falcons may have made it a touchdown game with the Patriots, but it wasn’t nearly as close as that would have suggested. After the Patriots scored their last touchdown, giving them a 30-13 lead, the Falcons’ win probability was about 1%, with the ball on their own 20, down 17, with 6:18 left to go. It took an onside kick recover to even make it competitive. This is a team that ordinarily dominates at home and off of a loss, but they’re as bad as they’ve been since before the Matt Ryan/Mike Smith era this season. Injuries have hurt (Sean Weatherspoon, Sam Baker, Asante Samuel, Kroy Biermann), but odds are they probably would not have been a playoff team either way.
Week 4 Studs
QB Matt Ryan
LG Justin Blalock
TE Tony Gonzalez
Week 4 Duds
WR Roddy White
DT Peria Jerry
DT Jonathan Babineaux
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New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick
New England Patriots (3-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
The Patriots certainly have injuries, but the Falcons do as well. They are without starting running back Steven Jackson, talented linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, and have lost starting defensive end Kroy Biermann for the season. Meanwhile, Roddy White is limited with a high ankle sprain and has not looked anywhere near his normal self this season, catching 7 passes for 56 yards in 3 games. Left tackle Sam Baker also missed last week with injury and is listed questionable for this game. Lamar Holmes struggled mightily in his absence last week. The Falcons lost in Miami last week as 2.5 point underdogs and now they are 2 point favorites at home for the Patriots, which essentially suggests that the Dolphins and Patriots are pretty equal, which I think doesn’t make any sense.
The Patriots have had a very easy schedule thus far this year, but I’ve been impressed with their defense. They have allowed 48 first downs to 21 punts forced this season, which is one of the best in the NFL. They haven’t been challenged yet, but I like their chances of carrying that over against real competition. They were 9th in the NFL allowing 20.7 points per game last season with a very young defense so it’s conceivable they could be a borderline top-5 defense this season.
The offense clearly has not been impressive, but if you ignore that week 2 game against a tough Jets defense on a short week, they have 47 first downs to 9 punts. They have a full week to prepare for the Falcons this week and their young receivers will only continue to get better. On top of that, both Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski could return. Both are questionable and there have been varying reports, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if one of them played, though I would be a little surprised if both played. Gronkowski seems more likely to play than not, while Amendola seems less likely to play than not.
Having one of both of them in the lineup, even if they aren’t at 100%, will help open things up on their offense, especially Gronkowski, who is not only more likely to return, but more valuable to the Patriots. Last season, Brady completed 65.1% of his passes for an average of 7.6 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. In his other 8 games, he completed just 58.7% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’ll be especially valuable in the red zone, where the Patriots have struggled mightily by not just their standards, but any standards this season. They were 3rd in the NFL last year, scoring a touchdown on 67.5% of red zone trips. This year, they are dead last, scoring a touchdown on 30.8% of red zone trips.
They should not be underdogs in Atlanta against the banged up Falcons. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirror. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run. It was also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground this season. They also faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season last year.
The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgraded from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. Now they are getting killed by injuries. They have no business being favored here. On top of that, Tom Brady is 28-13 ATS as an underdog in his career. They’re being overlooked right now and could easily play by far their best game of the season against their toughest opponent yet.
This would be a bigger play or even a Pick of the Week if I knew the status of Amendola and/or Gronkowski and if the Falcons weren’t coming off of a loss. They are 18-4 ATS off of a loss since 2008. They are also very good at home, as Matt Ryan is 34-7 at home in his career and 25-15 ATS and 22-12 ATS as home favorites. However, I feel like this line is so far off that those trends don’t matter as much. The Patriots should be the right side.
New England Patriots 23 Atlanta Falcons 16 Upset Pick +110
Pick against spread: New England +2
Confidence: Medium
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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#14)
Last week: 14 (-3)
I do have the Falcons a few spots higher than the Dolphins even though they lost in Miami, but I don’t really see much difference between these two teams. If they had played in Atlanta, the Falcons probably would have won. If they had played 100 times on a neutral field, the Falcons probably would win 55. However, at 1-2 in the NFC, Falcons fans should be nervous. They really need to bounce back at home against the Patriots this week.
Week 3 Studs
QB Matt Ryan
WR Julio Jones
Week 3 Duds
RT Lamar Holmes
LE Jonathan Massaquoi
FS Thomas DeCoud
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Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick
Atlanta Falcons (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
The Falcons have been destroyed by injuries thus far this season. Talented linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will miss at least 8 weeks after being put on short-term IR this week, taking away one of the few average or better starters the Falcons have on that side of the ball. Kroy Biermann, meanwhile, is out for the season with injury. He’s not the caliber of player that Weatherspoon is, but his absence will thin an already weak pass rush and force inexperienced youngsters into more action.
On top of that, they lost left tackle Sam Baker for at least this game. He’s really struggled thus far through 2 games, but his absence will force Lamar Holmes, who was already struggling on the right side, to play on the left side, while Jeremy Trueblood will start at right tackle. When we last saw Trueblood as a starter, he was one of the worst starting offensive tackles in the NFL, leading the NFL in quarterback hurries allowed in 2011. This offensive line was already struggling after losing both Tyson Clabo and Todd McClure this off-season, but Baker’s absence won’t make things better. Cameron Wake could dominate Lamar Holmes on the blindside.
They’ve also lost Steven Jackson for about 3 weeks with injury. In his absence, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling will handle the load, which could definitely be a concern. After Jackson went down last week, they managed just 36 yards on 13 carries. The organization has previously never seen either as a lead back type, starting the plodding Michael Turner ahead of them last season, which is not a positive sign for their ability to carry the load in Jackson’s absence.
Meanwhile, Roddy White is dealing with a high ankle injury that is seriously sapping his effectiveness. Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez have had to step up in his absence and Jones had a huge game last week, catching 11 passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. He probably won’t repeat that again, but he could still have a good game, even with a revitalized Brent Grimes likely matching up with him. Jones’ size advantage could be too much for White to overcome. Gonzalez could also have a big game, so I’m not too worried about the passing offense, but I have serious concerns about the offensive line, the defense, and the running game.
The fact that the Rams almost came back from what was once a 21-0 deficit to win last week, after all of the Falcons’ injuries, have to be concerning going forward. It’s especially concerning since Miami looks like a solid football team. They might not make the playoffs in the AFC, but they should at least win 8 games. It’s not going to be easy for the Falcons to come into Miami and win, especially considering their relative road struggles in the Matt Ryan era. We don’t have a lot of line value with the Dolphins as favorites, but I do like them to cover as short favorites. I’m not that confident in them though because they are making their home debut week 3, a situation teams are 20-40 ATS in since 1989. They could be exhausted from starting the season with two road games.
Miami Dolphins 27 Atlanta Falcons 20
Pick against spread: Miami -2
Confidence: None
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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#11)
Last week: 12
The Falcons built a big early lead against the Rams and eventually won, improving to 1-1, but the way they played after they lost regulars with injuries has to be concerning going forward. Asante Samuel will probably be back this week, but Steven Jackson, Kroy Biermann, and Sean Weatherspoon are all expected to be out for an extended period of time. With a sneaky tough trip to Miami and a game against the Patriots next on the schedule, they could be in trouble.
Week 2 Studs
RG Garrett Reynolds
Week 2 Duds
LT Sam Baker
LE Malliciah Goodman
DT Jonathan Babineaux
MLB Akeem Dent
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St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 2 NFL Pick
St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)
The Falcons lost last week in New Orleans, but now they return home where it’s always been a different story for the Falcons under Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan is 33-7 at home in his career and 24-15 ATS and 21-12 ATS as home favorites. Matt Ryan is also great off a loss, going 17-4 ATS in his career off of a loss. Given that, it’s kind of absurd this line is only -6.
I agree that the Falcons won’t have nearly as good of a record as last season. The Falcons’ 13 wins last year were done largely with smoke and mirrors and in a way that won’t be sustainable into 2013. 7 of those 13 wins came by a touchdown or less as they went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less, something that tends to even out in the long run. It’s also unlikely that the Falcons recover 64.3% of fumbles that hit the ground this season. The Falcons also face a tougher schedule in 2013. In 2012, the Falcons faced just 2 playoff teams in the regular season. That’ll be impossible this year playing a first place schedule in the loaded NFC.
The Falcons also lost a lot this off-season. They return just 2 starters in their original spot on an offensive line whose biggest strength was continuity, with the loss of right tackle Tyson Clabo being the biggest. They downgrade from John Abraham to Osi Umenyiora and also lost defensive tackle Vance Walker. The only real addition was the upgrade from the washed up Michael Turner to the almost washed up Steven Jackson at running back. Their week 1 performance supports that projection, but this line is still absurdly low.
The Rams might be just as overrated as the Falcons, possibly more because the odds makers seem to know that the Falcons are overrated. The Rams and Cardinals are very equal teams. The field goal game they played last week just supports that. Like the Cardinals, the Rams will probably finish with 6-7 wins. They went 7-8-1 last season, but I don’t think they match that, even with their increase in talent level.
If they didn’t add all they added this off-season, they would have been even worse. Teams that have big win improvements like the Rams did last season usually regress about half of that improvement the following season. There are unsustainable things about the Rams’ 2012 season. They were 6th in the league in adjusted games lost, meaning they had significantly fewer injuries than the league average. This was a season after they ranked dead last in that category in 2011. They also exceeded their Pythagorean Expectations by a whole win (assuming a half win for the tie) as they were outscored by 49 points on the season and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, 23rd in the NFL.
The Rams do have talent, but they’re going to have a hard time competing in the NFC. I have a hard time seeing them going into Atlanta and being competitive, but it’s not a high confidence play because of how often the Falcons have been playing close games over the past year or so. Including playoffs, 8 of their 14 wins last season were by a touchdown or less. That scares me, even with the line only at -6. I’d be more confident at -5.5 The Falcons should be the right side though.
Atlanta Falcons 27 St. Louis Rams 19
Pick against spread: Atlanta -6
Confidence: None
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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#12)
So far, so good on my pick of the Falcons missing the playoffs. They’d make it in the AFC, but the NFC is so loaded and the Falcons schedule is so much tougher than it was last season. Add in that they have less talent and they’re unlikely to continue recovering a high percentage of fumbles that hit the ground and dominating the turnover battle like they did last season and I think they’ll be on the outside looking in.
Week 1 Studs
DT Corey Peters
DT Jonathan Babineaux
Week 1 Duds
LT Sam Baker
RG Garrett Reynolds
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Football Fan Spot 