Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-9) at Atlanta Falcons (13-2)

I can’t handicap week 17 games like I do other games (maybe that’s a good thing because I’ve had a rough few weeks), because one of the things I do is look for upcoming distractions and dynamic changes on their schedule. In week 17, I can’t do that, so instead I have to look at what this game means do these two teams. The Falcons have clinched the #1 seed, so this game is meaningless to them. However, I’m hearing they’ll play their starters for at least a half, as they did in 2010 after they had clinched the #1 seed and they held a 21-0 lead at the half against the hapless Panthers.

I’d suggest they treat this like a real game. They seem to have finally hit their stride and they are playing their best football of the season after that loss in Carolina woke them up and it wouldn’t make sense to take their foot off the gas at all, especially with a week off before their next game. There’s a reason that Super Bowl teams tend to come from Wild Card weekend, while teams that get first round byes tend to lose their first home game, including these Falcons in 2010.

Regardless of what Atlanta does in this one, the Buccaneers are playing terrible football here and this game might be even more meaningless to them than the Falcons. The Falcons at least have the playoffs to tune up for. The Buccaneers’ season is over and they don’t even get to play spoiler at all with the Falcons having already clinched the #1 seed.

I’m not saying they’re as bad as the 2010 Panthers or the 2011 Buccaneers, against whom the Falcons took a 42-7 halftime lead last season during week 17. However, the Buccaneers have lost 5 straight, which is especially bad news for such a traditionally streaky team. Two close losses to the Falcons and Broncos weren’t that concerning, but their home loss to the Eagles was and once they lost that game and effectively had their season ended, they seem to have mailed it in for the 2nd straight season.

At best, they’re a streaky team on a very bad streak, with the streaky Josh Freeman going 88 of 174 (50.6%) for 1082 yards (6.2 YPA), 5 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions in his last 5 games, including a 1:8 TD/INT ratio in his last 2 games, a combined 69-13 loss. At worst, they’ve quit. I’m laying the points and taking the Falcons. Mike Smith is 3-1 ATS week 17, including 4-0 SU by an average of 14.0 points per game (against an average line of -10.5).

Public lean: ?

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 13-2

Net points per drive: 0.77 (3rd)

DVOA: 11.6% (7th)

Weighted DVOA: 7.3% (11th)

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 25 of 32 for 279 yards and 4 touchdowns, 105.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 35 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 6 of 11, 1 touchdown)

LG Justin Blalock: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

WR Roddy White: Caught 8 passes for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 attempts on 32 pass snaps, 7.3 YAC per catch

CB Robert McClain: Allowed 4 catches for 25 yards on 8 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE Kroy Biermann: 3 quarterback hits and 4 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RG Peter Konz: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

TE Tony Gonzalez: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 2 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch

WR Harry Douglas: Caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 2 attempts on 20 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch

FS Thomas DeCoud: Allowed 6 catches for 101 yards on 8 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 penalty

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 5 catches for 31 yards on 5 attempts

SS Chris Hope: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 assist, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 4 missed tackles, allowed 5 catches for 47 yards on 9 attempts

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Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Falcons, Lions

Atlanta Falcons (12-2) Detroit Lions (4-10)

Normally I like going against huge line movements because I hate week to week overreactions. This line was Atlanta -1 last week and now it’s at -4.5, skipping over two key numbers of 3 and 4. At first glance, this appears warranted. The Lions got blown out by the crappy Cardinals in Arizona, losing 38-10, while the Falcons got a huge home win over the solid Giants, winning 34-0. However, it’s important to think about what those games really mean.

Atlanta definitely proved they can turn it on and not just compete with some of the better teams in the league, but win convincingly, something they hadn’t done all year. There were a lot of reasonable concerns about how their long list of less than convincing victories against mediocre teams would translate into games against tougher opponents, which they really hadn’t had a lot of (Denver way back in week 2 when Peyton Manning wasn’t Peyton Manning yet is the only projected playoff team they’ve played this year, besides the Giants).

However, that long list still exists. They beat Carolina by 2 and then lost the rematch in Carolina by 10 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. They beat Tampa Bay by just 1, Oakland by just 3, Arizona by just 4, Dallas by just 6, and then lost in New Orleans. They won the rematch with the Saints by 10 in a game that was closer than the final score and before the Giants’ game, that was probably their most impressive win.

Just because the Falcons blew out the Giants, doesn’t mean they’ll stop playing down to the level of their competition against mediocre opponents, like these Lions. In fact, I think it makes it more likely. After their big Thursday Night win over the Saints, the Falcons had their worst game of the season the following week in Carolina.

For that reason, I like getting the 4.5 points with them. Detroit has a terrible record, but they’ve played a lot of good teams close. They’re like the anti-Falcons in a way. They always play superior teams close, but can’t get it done. Only 2 of their 10 losses have been by more than 8, including 4 losses by 4 or fewer points. I’m expecting more of the same when these two teams get together, a close game in which the Falcons find a way to win and the Lions find a way to lose.

As a result of the Lions’ long list of close wins and the ridiculous 10 return touchdowns that have gone against them this season, the Lions actually rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. The Falcons do rank 4th at 0.71 and if you take the difference between those, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points to Detroit’s side for home field, you get that Atlanta should be -5.5, so we’re still getting line value with the Falcons, in spite of the huge line movement, at least at first glance.

However, if we look at DVOA, which takes things like schedule into account, we see that Atlanta ranks 9th in regular and 12th in weighted, while the Lions rank 14th and 16th respectively. That defeats any line value that we might have been getting with the Falcons and I think we’re actually getting line value with the Lions thanks to that huge line movement.

Going back to the events of last week that caused that huge line movement, I think the Lions just completely overlooked the Cardinals, who were on a 9 game losing streak and had previously gotten blown out by 58-0. They still outgained the Cardinals 312-196, but lost because of 2 return touchdowns and a special teams fumble deep in their own territory. I think it was a bit of a fluke, because, as I mentioned, previously they had only lost 1 game by more than 8 all season, including none by more than 10.

That big loss actually makes it more likely they cover this week, as, like the Cardinals last week, they’re the ones coming off the embarrassing game. Dogs are 89-57 ATS off a 28+ point loss, including 29-13 ATS off an ATS loss of 31+. Teams tend to be overlooked, embarrassed, and undervalued in this spot. They’re certainly undervalued after that huge line movement with the public still all over the Falcons. I like to fade the public because they always lose money in the long run. I think the Lions will also be embarrassed, especially at home on national television, and they’ll probably be overlooked too.

I say probably because this is a nationally televised game, so the Falcons might be more focused than they otherwise would be, but then again, they barely beat Dallas on national television earlier this year. Still, that is the first reason why this isn’t a significant play. The 2nd is that the Lions are in a bad spot as home dogs before being home dogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. Teams are 25-55 ATS in this spot since 2002. However, the Lions should still be the right side as I’m expecting a close game.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Sharps lean: DET 13 ATL 10

Final thoughts: No change.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against spread: Detroit +4.5 (-110) 2 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 4 (+1)

Record: 12-2

Net points per drive: 0.71 (4th)

DVOA: 11.7% (9th)

Weighted DVOA: 7.3% (12th)

Atlanta finally got that one signature win last week, blowing out the Giants, even though the Giants might not even make the playoffs now. You can question their talent all you want and I think they might be the least talented of the top-5 teams, but their home field advantage is going to be a major asset as Matt Ryan is a ridiculous 32-5 at home in his career. I still think the 49ers could go in and win, but I think the list of teams I’d pick to win a playoff game in Atlanta ends there (you might be able to talk me into Green Bay).

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 23 of 28 for 270 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 hit as thrown, 109.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 29 drop backs (1 sack, 2 of 3, 1 touchdown, 1 hit as thrown)

LT Sam Baker: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 3 attempts

RT Tyson Clabo: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

WR Julio Jones: Caught 6 passes for 74 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 4.7 YAC per catch

WR Harry Douglas: Caught 3 passes for 83 yards on 3 attempts on 19 pass snaps, 11.0 YAC per catch

FS Thomas DeCoud: Allowed 2 catches for 16 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon: 7 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 attempts

Duds

RB Jacquizz Rodgers: Rushed for 25 yards (20 after contact) on 11 attempts, caught 1 pass for 14 yards on 1 attempt

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 29 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 7 yards on 2 attempts

WR Roddy White: Caught 2 passes for 16 yards on 4 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 1 penalty

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 4 catches for 63 yards on 7 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

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Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Falcons, Giants

New York Giants (8-5) at Atlanta Falcons (11-2)

Every year in the Tom Coughlin era, the Giants have a 2nd half slide. Since he took over in 2004, they are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 29-40 in the second 8 games of the season. This year has been no different as they started 6-2, but thanks to a 2-3 stretch, they are now 8-5, not bad, but not as good as it once looked.

It’s not all Eli Manning’s fault, but there is a noticeable dip in his 2nd half production as compared to his 1st half production. He completes 57% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA and 94 touchdowns to 81 interceptions in the 2nd half, as opposed to 60% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions in the first half.

They blew out the Saints last week, but I wouldn’t be so sure that everything is fine, especially given their 2nd half history. They blew out the Packers 3 weeks ago and then responded by losing as favorites in Washington the next week. That loss actually pushed their record off a 2nd half win by 14 or more to 3-6 SU since 2004. Their huge win over the Saints was a little fluky too. If not for over 400 return yards, the first time a team has done that since 2000, they could have lost. After all, they were outgained and the rest of the teams’ stats looked fairly similar.

What that win did do was get people believing in them again. Most of the guys on ESPN are picking them to win this one and the Giants, as mere 1 point dogs against an 11-2 team, are a very heavy public lean. Not only do I love fading the public (especially when they back a dog and especially when they back a dog this heavily), Giants fans will tell you, it’s not a good thing that people believe in this team. That tends to be when they disappoint and they’re deadly when people are doubting them.

This week they have to go to Atlanta, who isn’t as good as their record, but they’re still a good team. It’s almost like they’ve become underrated for being overrated, that people called them overrated so many times that people don’t think they’re even a good team. They’re not 11-2 good, but I have trouble believing that they deserve to be mere 1 point home favorites against anyone. Maybe New England, but no one else. The real line is at Atlanta -1, based on the net points per drive method, which holds up to DVOA, but that still seems a little ridiculous. They’re also dogs and there have only been 2 instances in the last 23 years of a team being home dogs with 2 or fewer losses in week 13 or later.

Another big reason this line seems ridiculous to me is because of Matt Ryan’s dominance at home. He’s a ridiculous 31-5 at home in his career. At times I’ve wondered if they have become a better road team than home team this season, as all 3 of their wins by more than 10 points have come on the road, and because they’ve struggled to beat inferior teams like Arizona, Oakland, Carolina, and Dallas at home. But they are still 6-0 SU at home this season and even though they haven’t always covered the spread at home this year, Matt Ryan is still 23-12 ATS as home in his career.

If not for their 2008-2011 history, I’d be concerned that, in spite of their 6-0 home record, they’d lose this one because they haven’t really played anyone at home and they’ve barely beaten some bad teams. However, because of their history at home, I like them to win this game. They’re especially good as non-divisional home favorites, going 13-6 ATS (18-2 SU) as non-divisional home favorites in the Matt Ryan era.

Another situation they’ve been really good in since 2008, when Mike Smith and Matt Ryan came in, is off a loss. Well coached teams tend to bounce back off a loss and the Falcons are just that. In fact, if Mike Smith’s name were anything other than Mike Smith, he’d probably be talked about as one of the better Head Coaches in the NFL. He’s a ridiculous 17-4 ATS off a loss.

I’ve been down on Atlanta a lot this year, but I love them this week. The Giants are not a good 2nd half team. They’re not good when people believe in them and I love betting against such a heavy public lean. Meanwhile, this is a statement game for an Atlanta team that always gets it done at home and always bounces back well off a loss.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Atlanta Falcons 27 New York Giants 20

Pick against spread: Atlanta -1 (-110) 3 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 4 (+0)

Record: 11-2

Net points per drive: 0.54 (7th)

DVOA: 5.2% (11th)

Weighted DVOA: 0.6% (14th)

It’s not so much concerning that the Falcons lost in Carolina than it is that no one was really surprised. The Patriots lost to the Cardinals. The 49ers lost to the Rams. The Giants lost to the Redskins twice last season. But it wasn’t surprising because they’ve been playing inferior teams close all season. It was only a matter of time before one of them beat them. I still don’t believe they can turn it on when it counts in the playoffs and win 3 straight against playoff caliber opponents. They have arguably the toughest test of the season this week at home for the Giants.

Atlanta

Studs

RB Jacquizz Rodgers: Rushed for 21 yards (13 after contact) on 4 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 6 passes for 43 yards on 7 attempts

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

WR Roddy White: Caught 9 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown on 11 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to, 1.8 YAC per catch

Duds

C Todd McClure: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 54 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

SS Chris Hope: 2 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles, allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Akeem Dent: 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 1 stop, allowed 2 catches for 59 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers

Atlanta Falcons (11-1) at Carolina Panthers (3-9)

I really like using trends to pick NFL games. Not all games have the same weight on a team’s schedule and games don’t always mean the same thing for the teams playing it. This is why upsets happen. However, there aren’t any really good ones in play here, except this. Teams are 49-37 ATS as home favorites after a loss as road favorites since 1989, including 14-8 ATS as divisional home dogs when the previous game was non-divisional. That applies to the Panthers, who have gone from road favorites to home dogs in just one week because of one loss, which really didn’t have much to do with them, as the Chiefs were galvanized by the Jovan Belcher situation. However, that really assumes the Panthers don’t deserve to be home dogs here, which they do.

In fact, we may be getting line value with the Falcons, who are rested. Teams are 118-100 ATS on a Sunday following a Thursday game. The Falcons rank 4th in net points per drive at 0.64, while the Panthers rank 26th at -0.47. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per team) and move the line 3 points in Carolina’s direction for home field, you get a real line of Atlanta -9. However, DVOA defeats this some as the Falcons rank 10th in DVOA, while the Panthers rank 18th. In weighted DVOA, the Falcons are 14th to the Panthers’ 18th place rank. That kind of suggests we’re getting some line with the Panthers even. It’s important to compare because net points per drive doesn’t take things like schedule into account that DVOA, which is net points per drive based, does.

As you can tell, I don’t really have a good feel for this game. I’m going with the Falcons, however. The tiebreaker is the Falcons’ road performance this season. Once an incredible home team, the Falcons have for some reason failed get a single convincing home win this season, winning just one home game by more than a touchdown and that was last week against New Orleans, in a game that was closer than the final score. However, on the road they have wins of 16, 24, and 13. Granted those were against San Diego, Kansas City, and Philadelphia, but is Carolina really much better?

Public lean: Atlanta (70% range)

Sharps lean: CAR 27 ATL 8

Final thoughts: This heavy sharps lean, in contrast with the heavy public lean on Carolina, and the fact that William Moore has been ruled out for the Falcons almost made me change my pick to a unit on the Panthers, but I’d need more points to do that. This line is small enough that if I were to pick the Panthers, I’d have to really believe they could win and I don’t. This reminds me of Chicago/Tennessee a few weeks ago. All the signs pointed to Tennessee being the right side, but I didn’t believe they could actually win. Tennessee got blown out.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#4)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 6 (+2)

Record: 11-1

Net points per drive: 0.64 (4th)

DVOA: 6.3% (10th)

Weighted DVOA: 2.1% (14th)

Studs

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 83 yards (60 yards after contact) and a touchdown on 12 attempts, 5 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 1 pass for 7 yards on 1 attempt

LT Sam Baker: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 34 pass block snaps, run blocked for 17 yards on 2 attempts

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 6 catches for 26 yards on 9 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops

CB Chris Owens: Allowed 3 catches for 35 yards on 8 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

CB Robert McClain: Allowed 5 catches for 39 yards on 7 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 8 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackles

SS William Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 29 yards on 3 attempts, 2 interceptions, 10 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

RE John Abraham: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 6 quarterback hurries on 40 pass rush snaps, 2 batted passes, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

P Matt Bosher: 6 punts for 319 yards, 1 inside 20, 4 returns for 62 yards, 42.8 net yards per return, 6 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 72.5 yards per kickoff, 18.0 opponent’s average starting distance

Duds

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon: 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 10 blitzes, allowed 4 catches for 75 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 12 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 26 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection

DT Jonathan Babineaux: Did not record a pressure on 50 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle, 1 interception

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 5 (-1)

Record: 10-1

Net points per drive: 0.62 (5th)

DVOA: 2.9% (12th)

Weighted DVOA: -0.4% (17th)

Tier 2: Quasi-Contenders

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 26 of 32 for 353 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 drop, 100.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 34 drop backs (1 sack, 1 scramble, 2 of 4, 1 interception, 1 throw away)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers: Rushed for 49 yards (30 after contact) and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 4 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 30 yards on 2 attempts, 2 kickoff returns for 73 yards

C Todd McClure: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 6 attempts

RG Peter Konz: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 1 attempt

RT Tyson Clabo: Did not allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Julio Jones: Caught 6 passes for 147 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 34 pass snaps, 11.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 penalty

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 1 catch for 10 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 sack on 2 blitzes

RE John Abraham: 3 quarterback hurries on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

P Matt Bosher: 5 kickoffs, 2 touchbacks, 70.8 yards per kickoff, 18.6 opponent’s starting distance, 1 punt for 45 yards, 1 inside 20, 45.0 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 17 yards (10 after contact) and a touchdown on 13 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 3 passes for 13 yards on 3 attempts

LT Sam Baker: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 9 yards on 1 attempt

WR Harry Douglas: Caught 2 passes for 11 yards on 3 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 0.3 YAC per catch

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon: Allowed 5 catches for 73 yards on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

FS Thomas DeCoud: 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 1 catch for 31 yards on 2 attempts

DT Vance Walker: Did not record a pressure on 27 pass rush snaps, no tackles

K Matt Bryant: 1/3 FG (33, missed 22, 48)

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints

New Orleans Saints (5-6) at Atlanta Falcons (10-1)

On principle, this line is too small. This line essentially suggests that the Saints and Falcons are equals (3 points for home field advantage) and while I agree that the Falcons aren’t as good as their record, I don’t think the Saints and Falcons are equals right now. Using this new method of computing real line and line value I’ve created, which I think makes more sense that methods I’ve used in the past and which is based on net points per drive, this line should be Atlanta -8.5.

How this new method works is this: Net points per drive is points per drive minus by points per drive allowed, points per drive being offensive points (non-return touchdowns, extra points, two point conversions, and field goals) divided by total number of drives. For example, if you score 3 points per drive (that’s a lot actually) and allow 2, your net would be +1. There are an average of 11 drives per game, so we multiply that number by 11 and that team would be -11 on a neutral surface against an average team. In order to compute line value from that, we take the differences between the net points per drive, multiply by 11, and then add 3 points for home field advantage. Atlanta is at +0.62, while New Orleans is at +0.14. 0.48 times 11 plus 3 is around 8.5.

In spite of that, the public is siding with the dog. It’s almost like the Falcons have been called overrated so many times that they’re underrated. Besides, I love fading the public, especially when they back a dog. The odds makers always make money in the long run so siding with them (and against the public) isn’t a bad idea, especially when the public is backing a dog. Odds makers want two things, to make money and for favorites and dogs to cover evenly (so the public can’t key in on just one). The public rarely backs a dog, but when they do, it’s a risky bet.

That being said, New Orleans has had the much tougher schedule. Net points per drive doesn’t take into account strength of schedule, but DVOA (which is a formula heavily based on net points per drive, that takes strength of schedule into account) does. Atlanta ranks 5th in net points per drive and New Orleans ranks 14th, but in DVOA, Atlanta ranks 12th and New Orleans ranks 16th. New Orleans is also playing better football of late and has the momentum. Weighted DVOA (which weights more recent games more heavily) ranks Atlanta 17th and New Orleans 14th.

Meanwhile, Atlanta’s net points per drive is strong mostly because of 3 games: 40-23 week 1 against Kansas City, 27-3 week 3 against San Diego, and 30-17 week 8 against Philadelphia. The rest of their games have all been decided by a touchdown or less and if you took those 3 outliers out, they would be much worse than 5th in net points per drive. None of those 3 games are recent and that trio isn’t exactly a murderers’ row. Kansas City is the worst team in the NFL. San Diego hasn’t been anyone except Kansas City since week 2 (their other wins are against Tennessee and Oakland, also crappy teams). Philadelphia, meanwhile, hasn’t won any of their last 7 games and their 3 wins came by a total of 4 points.

All 3 of those games were also on the road, which is strange because this was traditionally a great home team that struggled on the road. This year, they haven’t won a single home game by more than a touchdown in 5 tries. They’ve won all 5, but they’ve all been close and New Orleans is the 2nd toughest team they’ve faced at home this season, toughest if you believe that the week 2 Broncos (before they got rolling) are worse than these Saints. The other 4 wins came against teams that are a combined 15-29.

There’s only so long you can play inferior teams close before one beats you and even if the Saints don’t win, 16% of all NFL games are decided by exactly a field goal so this could easily be a field goal game, which would cover this 3.5 point spread. The Saints also seem to own the Falcons in the Matt Ryan era, beating them 7 out of 9 times, including earlier this season. They’re also 3-1 in the Georgia Dome, as good as the Falcons normally are there. Those 3 losses are 3 of the 7 losses they’ve had at home since 2008 (30-4 against anyone other than the Saints).

Besides, Drew Brees is awesome as a dog off a loss, going 8-2 ATS in that spot since joining the Saints in 2006. I hate siding with a public dog and I wish this spread was bigger, but it’s a small play on the Saints. Also, unlike most weeks, I don’t like the under this Thursday Night. That generally hits on a short week because offenses tend to struggle on short weeks, but this game features two true franchise quarterbacks so I trust them to be prepared. There’s no play on the total.

Public lean: New Orleans (60% range)

New Orleans Saints 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +170

Pick against spread: New Orleans +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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