Falcons

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (9-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

The Falcons may be 9-1 and the Buccaneers may be 6-4, but the Buccaneers are playing better football right now. They’ve had 5 wins by a touchdown or less against sub .500 teams, including 4 at home. Denver is the only team better than .500 they beat and that was back week 2 before Denver got hot. Despite their 9-1 record, they are just +77 in points differential, 6th in the league (New England, Houston, San Francisco, Denver, Chicago). The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are +57, but in the last 6 weeks, they are +66 to Atlanta’s +29. The Falcons have lost to the Saints and they could easily lose to Tampa Bay this weekend. As I mentioned when they played the Saints, there’s only so long you can play inferior opponent’s close before one of them beats you.

The Buccaneers, meanwhile, have been on fire since the bye, winning 5 of 6, with the one loss coming down to the final play against the Saints. If you showed me tape of this team before the bye, I wouldn’t recognize them. Josh Freeman is 115 of 190 for 1715 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions in his last 6 games. He has a cannon for an arm, but he wasn’t using it last year, throwing 20 yards downfield or more on just 6.5% of his throws, by far least frequent in the NFL, despite being the 3rd most accurate deep ball thrower in the NFL. This year, with a reliable deep threat in Jackson, he’s going deep on 15.0% of his throws and, more important, he’s having a ton of success, going 21 of 48 for 862 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception.

Their makeshift offensive line is run blocking and pass protecting well. The Freeman to Vincent Jackson combo is deadly (42 catches for 863 yards and 7 touchdowns) and opening thinks up for Mike Williams and Doug Martin, who is running much better since the bye thanks to improved blocking and the defense fearing the pass. Defensively, as bad as their secondary is, they have a great front 7 led by the finally healthy Gerald McCoy and rookie of the year candidate Lavonte David. Even before the bye, they have not lost by more than a touchdown all season. Only the Patriots, Seahawks, and Falcons can also say that.

As you can imagine, we’re getting some line value with the Buccaneers, even before you take into account momentum. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Tampa Bay -3 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Atlanta -2. Tampa Bay should really be the ones favored here at home and yet the Falcons are by -1.5. In spite of that, the public is pounding the Falcons, a bad sign because the odds makers have had a rough 3 week stretch and are due for a big week.

The Falcons also could be caught looking forward to a rematch with the Saints next week on Thursday Night. Favorites are just 24-37 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, including 15-24 ATS before being divisional favorites, which the Falcons should be when they host the Saints in Atlanta. It’s a significant play on Tampa Bay. Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and one on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time.

Public lean: Atlanta (80% range)

Sharps lean: ATL 16 TB 9

Final update: Sharps like Atlanta, but they also seem to like Tampa Bay too. This is the most bet game of the week by the 44 sharps, with 25 of them having it in their top-5 in LV Hilton one way or another on a 16 game week. I feel fine taking Tampa Bay still. Asante Samuel could be out for the Falcons, which would be a big loss to their secondary in a game where points will be aplenty.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31 Atlanta Falcons 24 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 3 (-2)

Record: 9-1

Michael Turner is so useless. He’s averaging 3.1 YPC over his last 5 games with just one carry longer than 13. On the season, he’s failed to convert on goal-to-go carries over 75% of the time. He’s also only caught 10 passes on the year. He literally has no NFL-level skills anymore. He’s weighing this team down and they need to find a competent replacement by the playoffs. Right now, I’m not scared of this team at all. They may be 9-1, but they’ve had 5 wins by a touchdown or less against sub .500 teams, including 4 at home. Denver is the only team better than .500 they beat and that was back week 2 before Denver got hot. They’ve lost to the Saints and they could easily lose to Tampa Bay this weekend.

Studs

RT Tyson Clabo: Did not allow a pressure on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 18 yards on 5 attempts

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 2 catches for 25 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

SS William Moore: Did not allow a completion on 1 attempt, 4 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 3 solo tackles, 2 stops, was not thrown on, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes

RE John Abraham: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hurry, 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

QB Matt Ryan: 28 of 46 for 301 yards and 5 interceptions, 3 drops, 59.1 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 47 drop backs (1 sack, 2 of 11, 2 interceptions, 1 drop)

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 46 yards (24 after contact) and a touchdown on 15 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps, did not catch a pass on 2 attempts, 1 drop

DT Corey Peters: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Falcons

Arizona Cardinals (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (8-1)

The Falcons are 9.5 point favorites here at home, but they’ve struggled to blow teams out this year, winning 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 against teams who, like the Cardinals, currently have a sub .500 record. 4 of those 5 close games were at home and they represent all 4 of the Falcons’ home games this season.

Arizona is in a couple of good spots. They’re dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 95-50 ATS in since 2011. They are double digit dogs (I know they’re technically not, but close enough, it’s -10 in some places) before being favorites, a situation teams are 46-27 ATS in since 2002, including 16-4 ATS as non-divisional double digit dogs before being divisional favorites (they host St. Louis next week). They’re also coming off a bye having lost 5 or more in a row, a situation teams are 20-8 ATS in since 1989.

We’re also getting line value with the Cardinals. Using the yards per play differential method, we get a real line of Atlanta -5.5 and using the rate of sustaining drives differential metric, we get a real line of -10, which averages out to be a significantly smaller line than this is (2 points is pretty significant). All this being said, I like the Falcons this week for two reasons.

The first is that I really don’t like the way the Cardinals are going right now. They’ve lost 5 in a row and John Skelton, who will start once again this week, is, believe it or not, actually a downgrade over Kevin Kolb. Both of their top-2 backs are hurt and their offensive line is a complete joke and on pace to break Houston’s record of 78 sacks allowed set in 2002, their first season in existence.

Second, since Mike Smith took over in 2008, this team has been excellent at rebounding off a loss. Good teams with good coaches tend to do this and Mike Smith might do it better than anyone (I guarantee you if his name were anything other than Mike Smith, he’d be known as one of the top Head Coaches in the NFL). He is 17-3 ATS off a loss, including 6-0 ATS off an upset loss.

The Falcons haven’t blown a bunch of teams out this year, but they certainly have the personnel and capability to do so. I think they get that blowout win this week in a statement game for a team that always bounces back well off a loss and that needs to shut a few people up by blowing out a team that should blow out. They’re also great outside of the division at home as Matt Ryan is 16-6 ATS as non-divisional home favorites, though just 5-3 ATS as touchdown favorites and 1-1 ATS as double digit favorites. I like the Falcons for a small play. I hate laying this many points in general, and there is a lot of conflicting stuff in this one, but the Falcons seem due for a statement home win against a crappy opponent.

Public lean: Atlanta (70% range)

Sharps lean: ARZ 8 ATL 2

Final update: One of the toughest games this week as there’s stuff going on for both sides. Injuries will play a key role as well as Julio Jones is a game time decision and both Sean Weatherspoon and Calais Campbell, arguably each team’s best defensive player, are not expected to play. I’m sticking with my original pick, but it would be very low in any confidence pool and a zero unit pick if I did them.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Arizona Cardinals 12

Pick against spread: Atlanta -9.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 3 (+0)

Record: 8-1

I’ve said it several times before. There’s only so long you can play inferior teams close before one of them beats out and that’s what happened in New Orleans last week. Fortunately, their remaining schedule isn’t that hard (vs. Arizona, @ Tampa Bay, vs. New Orleans, @ Carolina, vs. NY Giants, @ Detroit, vs. Tampa Bay), so they should probably still be able to get the #1 seed, but I wouldn’t like their chances with someone like Chicago coming to town in the NFC Championship game.

Studs

TE Tony Gonzalez: Caught 11 passes for 122 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 attempts on 52 pass snaps, 1.9 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Roddy White: Caught 7 passes for 114 yards on 12 attempts on 53 pass snaps, 1.8 YAC per catch

CB Asante Samuel: Did not allow a catch on 3 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

P Matt Bosher: 6 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, 70.7 yards per kickoff, 21.0 opponent’s average starting distance, 3 punts for 140 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 2 yards, 46.0 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 15 yards (32 after contact) on 13 attempts, 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt

LG Justin Blalock: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps

C Todd McClure: 2 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 14 yards on 5 attempts

RG Peter Konz: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps

SS William Moore: Allowed 3 catches for 90 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 quarterback hurry on 1 blitz

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Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Falcons, Saints

Atlanta Falcons (8-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-5)

The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. Their +77 points differential is just 6th in the NFL. Typically, records in touchdown games even out over time. Teams that win a game by a touchdown or less win their following game 52% of the time if that game is also decided by a touchdown or less.

They’ve beaten everyone on their schedule and they’ve been able to eke out victories, but at the end of the day, if I’m an AFC team, I’m way more scared of the Bears than the Falcons. I don’t like the Falcons to go 16-0 either even against a week schedule. At least one of these inferior teams that they keep barely beaten will trip them up one of these weeks. It could easily be the Saints in New Orleans this Sunday.

When are we ever going to see Drew Brees as a home dog again? Well, it’s actually happened 5 times before this week since he joined the Saints in 2006. The Saints covered 4 of those 5 instances. Meanwhile, dogs before being favorites are 89-50 ATS since 2011. The Saints go to Oakland next weekend. Home dogs before being road favorites, like the Saints will be next week, are 52-31 ATS since 2002.

That makes sense. If you’re good enough to be road favorites in the following week, why are you home dogs? Those teams are extra focused too with an easy game next on their schedule. That trend becomes stronger when the team is divisional home dogs before being non-divisional road favorites. Going back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, teams are 29-14 ATS in that spot. They’ll be extra focused this week. This will be their Super Bowl, not just because it’s Atlanta, but because their season is over with a loss, while they don’t care about non-conference Oakland next week.

This game will mean a lot for the Falcons too. However, small road favorites (less than 3) are 3-11 ATS after 5 or more straight wins. Typically if a team has been playing this well lately and they’re still not big road favorites, there’s a good reason for that. If we look at the metrics for calculating real line, we see that the yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -1 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of -6.

Average those two out and you get -3.5 and, all of a sudden, this small line makes more sense, especially since you consider the Falcons will once again be without top linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Without him last week, they allowed 377 yards to the Cowboys 24 yards over their season average going into last week and their 4th worst total allowed of the season. The Cowboys imploded in the red zone, which is why they got just 13 points, but the Saints are much better in the red zone. They score on 72% of their red zone trips, best in the NFL.

The Falcons have also been had a bunch of “too good to be true” lines in their games this year that actually made sense when you looked at the metrics, -7.5 for Carolina, -9 for Oakland, +2.5 in Philadelphia, -3 in Washington, -4 for Dallas, etc. That’s not done on purpose. The odds makers know they’re overrated. The public seems to be falling for the trap as most of the action is on the Saints. This week especially, that’s a bad thing.

As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back. I’ve bet against the Falcons in the last 2 weeks and lost, but I’m doing it again this week. They can’t keep this up every week. One of these inferior teams will knock them off and there’s a lot of stuff going against them this week.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if New Orleans covers)

Sharps lean: NO 12 ATL 9

Final update: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 Atlanta Falcons 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New Orleans +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#3)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 1 (-2)

Record: 8-0

The Falcons are an undefeated 8-0, but they have not played a tough schedule (it doesn’t really get harder) and they’ve won 5 of their 8 games by a touchdown or less, including 4 at home. They’ve beaten everyone on their schedule and they’ve been able to eke out victories, but at the end of the day, if I’m an AFC team, I’m way more scared of the Bears than the Falcons. I don’t like the Falcons to go 16-0 either even against a week schedule. At least one of these inferior teams that they keep barely beaten will trip them up one of these weeks. It could easily be the Saints in New Orleans this Sunday.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 24 of 34 for 342 yards, 2 drops, 98.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 38 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 9 of 12)

WR Roddy White: Caught 7 passes for 118 yards on 10 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

WR Julio Jones: Caught 5 passes for 129 yards on 6 attempts on 42 pass snaps, 11.0 YAC per catch

DT Jonathan Babineaux: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Kroy Biermann: 3 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

Duds

LT Sam Baker: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

FB Lousaka Polite: Didn’t catch a pass on 1 attempt on 4 pass snaps, 1 drop, allowed 1 sack on 2 pass block snaps

CB Dunta Robinson: Allowed 5 catches for 108 yards on 7 attempts, 2 penalties, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles, allowed 6 catches for 83 yards on 7 attempts, 1 quarterback hit on 7 blitzes

RE John Abraham: 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

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Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Falcons

Dallas Cowboys (3-4) at Atlanta Falcons (7-0)

The Falcons are great at home, they’re undefeated, and the Cowboys are a laughing stock. How do they not win by 4 right? Well, as is often the case in betting, when something is too good to be true, it generally is. I think that’s the case here, especially since the line opened at -5 and has dropped despite heavy action on Atlanta.

While Atlanta is 7-0, I’m still not sold on them. 4 of their 7 wins have come by a touchdown or less. They’ve been very reliant on winning the turnover margin, which is inconsistent on a week to week basis. They rank just 19th in yards per play differential and 4th in rate of sustaining drives differential. And they haven’t really played anyone of note, except Denver, and that was not the same Broncos team they are now because Peyton Manning hadn’t gotten going yet. Besides, they go into this game without top linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Spoon isn’t someone a lot of people know about, but he’s one of the best linebackers in the league and a huge loss for the Falcons.

Dallas, meanwhile, is seen as the laughing stock of the league, but they rank 8th in yards per play differential and 7th in rate of sustaining drives differential. The biggest issue, by far, has been turnover differential so far for them, as they have a turnover differential of -11, 2nd worst in the NFL. The good news is that turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent, as I said before. Going off that, teams that lose despite throwing for 400 yards are 13-7 ATS in their next game as dogs.

Tony Romo, specifically, has an interception rate of 4.6% this year. Despite his reputation as a turnover machine, his interception rate was only 2.8% coming into the season. In fact, the 13 interceptions he has this year is the most he’s had in a season since 2008, and it’s been 7 games. That will regress to the mean going forward. I’m actually impressed they were able to keep it so close with the Giants despite losing the turnover battle by 4. Their defense is much improved over last season thanks to all the resources they put into it.

We can use the yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to calculate real line. According to the rate of sustaining drives method, this line should be -4.5 and according to yards per play differential, this line should be a pick em. All of a sudden, this 4 point line doesn’t seem so ridiculous any more. It has all the ingredients of being a “too good to be true” trap line. Atlanta isn’t as good as their record. Dallas isn’t as bad. Atlanta is missing a key player. The already suspiciously low line is dropping despite heavy public action on Atlanta.

Speaking of too good to be true lines, Atlanta’s games seem to frequently have those. They’ve been -7.5 for Carolina, -9 for Oakland, +2.5 in Philadelphia, -3 in Washington, etc. That’s not done on purpose. The odds makers know they’re overrated. As good as they are at home (15-6 ATS as non-divisional favorites), they’ve still almost lost to home to Oakland and Carolina. If they can keep it close with the Falcons in Atlanta, so can Dallas.

Teams almost never go undefeated over the course of a season for a reason. It’s so easy to lose a game you’re supposed to win. Green Bay lost to Kansas City last year. Atlanta can lose to Dallas here. It’s not ridiculous. Besides, this game means so much more to Dallas, who is fighting for their playoff lives and playing for respect. Teams are 124-78 ATS off a loss by a touchdown or fewer as divisional home dogs since 1989.

Atlanta, meanwhile, is already 4 games up in their division. They won their respect game last week as dogs. They won’t care as much about this one. Week 5 or later, undefeated teams are 4-8 ATS as favorites off a win as dogs, 1-8 ATS in non-divisional contests.  Yes, this game is on Sunday Night Football, but the Falcons probably won’t care. They’ve already had a National TV game. Besides, the Texans didn’t seem to care about being on National TV when they lost to the Packers on Sunday Night a few weeks ago. Even if the Falcons win, I think it’ll be another close win for them and another heartbreaking loss for the Cowboys, so I like getting more than a field goal with the Cowboys.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 28 ATL 1

Final update: This is amazing. Of the 44 sharps in my sample size (those with records of 24-15 or better in LV Hilton), 28 of them are taking the Cowboys this week as one of their top 5 picks, while only one is taking Atlanta. I haven’t seen anything like this before. I’m putting an extra unit on the Cowboys and making this my pick of the week.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Atlanta Falcons 20 Upset Pick +175

Pick against spread: Dallas +4 (-110) 5 units

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 3 (+2)

Record: 7-0

I’m moving the Falcons into the #1 spot for the first time all season, but I’m still not sold. 4 of their 7 wins have come by a touchdown or less. They’ve been very reliant on winning the turnover margin, which is inconsistent on a week to week basis. They rank just 19th in yards per play differential and 4th in rate of sustaining drives differential. And they haven’t really played anyone of note, except Denver, and that was not the same Broncos team they are now. The Falcons could easily lose at home to the Cowboys this week.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 22 of 29 for 262 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 throw aways, 102.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 7 of 34 drop backs (1 sack, 3 scrambles, 1 of 3, 1 throw away)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers: Rushed for 60 yards (53 after contact) on 8 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 5 passes for 20 yards on 5 attempts

LG Justin Blalock: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 3 attempts

WR Julio Jones: Caught 5 passes for 123 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 15.8 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 5 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes, 1 penalty, allowed 2 catches for 18 yards and a deflection on 5 attempts

SS William Moore: Allowed 1 catch for 0 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes

Duds

RB Michael Turner: Rushed for 58 yards (47 after contact) on 24 carries, 2 broken tackles, 1 fumble, caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 2 attempts

RG Peter Konz: Allowed 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 5 attempts

CB Asante Samuel: 4 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 45 yards on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection

DT Jonathan Babineaux: Did not record a pressure on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

DT Peria Jerry: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Eagles, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (6-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

The Falcons are 6-0 and they’re underdogs. Easy money right? That seems to be what the public thinks as most of the action is on the undefeated dog. However, that’s not necessarily always the case with undefeated dogs. Believe it or not, there’s no trend associated with undefeated teams as dogs this late in the season. Undefeated dogs after week 7 are 3-2 ATS, after week 6 are 3-3 ATS, and after week 5 are 7-7 ATS. The odds makers don’t make it that easy on you.

The reason that Atlanta is a dog this week is because in all his years as Head Coach of the Eagles, Andy Reid has never lost off a regular season bye. He’s a perfect 14-0 straight up, including 11-3 ATS. If we expand that to the playoffs, he’s 14-4 ATS and 17-1 SU with that one loss coming in the Super Bowl to the Patriots. Last year, when they finished 8-8, they blew out the Cowboys 34-7 after their bye, despite having a 2-4 record coming in. That was their biggest victory of the season. I don’t know what the hell Andy Reid does during a bye, but whatever it is, it works. Whether you like the Eagles or not, you have to agree if they ever can get their act together and play like their talent level, they’d be a dangerous team. Well, this week, that should be the case.

Besides, while the Falcons are 6-0, they aren’t exactly playing well of late. They’ve won their last 3 games by a combined 12 points against teams that are a combined 6-13 on the year and they could have lost each of them had one or two things gone a different way. Against Carolina, the Panthers led into the late 4th quarter, but botched their end game badly. Against Washington, the Redskins were even with the Falcons until Robert Griffin got hurt. He was replaced by 4th round rookie Kirk Cousins, who promptly throw 2 interceptions. The Redskins also missed a very makeable field goal in that game. Against Oakland, Carson Palmer threw an unnecessary late pick six in a 3 point Falcons win.

Besides, it’s not like they’ve played a tough schedule or anything. They have the league’s worst strength of schedule. The two toughest teams they’ve faced are Denver and San Diego and the Denver game was in Atlanta. Philadelphia is probably the toughest road team they’ve faced thus far this year, even not off a bye. Besides, it’s supposed to be wet and rainy in Philadelphia this weekend and the Falcons have never proven to be a good team outside in the elements in the Matt Ryan era. I don’t expect that to change now that they’re become a more pass reliant team.

Easy schedule aside, Atlanta is still not playing as well as their record. They rank just 6th in the league in rate of sustaining drives differential at 7.5% and 21st in the league in yards per play differential with a -0.3. The reason for this, aside from some close games, has been their reliance on turnovers. They rank 3rd in the league with a +10 turnover differential. However, historically, turnover differentials average out to be the same on a weekly basis regardless of what your previous turnover differential was. It’s not something you can rely on week in and week out to win you games. They almost lost at home to Oakland because they lost the turnover battle. For more on that, click here.

Philadelphia is in the opposite situation. Because of their -9 turnover differential, tied for 2nd worst in the league, they actually rank better in yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives than their record would suggest, ranking 13th in yards per play differential and 11th in rate of sustaining drives differential, despite a .500 record.

We can use these two stats to calculate a real line. The real line with the points per play differential method is Philadelphia -6.5, while the rate of sustaining drives method suggests this should be a pick em. I like to use both because one overestimates teams that get a lot of big plays (or allow a lot of big plays) and the other underestimates those teams, but using those methods, at the very least, this line doesn’t seem so ridiculous, not even taking Andy Reid’s record off a bye into account. At the most, we may actually have some line value with the Eagles so long as the line remains below 3.

Each team has a prominent trend working for them. Teams off a close home loss (1-3 points) as favorites are 84-64 ATS the following week since 2002. That works for Philadelphia and it’s even stronger off a bye, 17-5 ATS since 1989. The Falcons, meanwhile, are dogs before being favorites, a situation teams are 84-46 ATS in since 2011. Teams tend to be extra focused in that situation, but the Eagles will also be extra focused off a bye.

Besides, I think it would be reckless to pick a publicly backed underdog this week. Dogs are 63-39 ATS on the season. You might think, that’s a reason to take the dog, but eventually that’s going to even out. Dating back over the last decade, dogs or favorites have not finished more than 10 games over .500 over the course of an entire year. It’s smart to ride the correction going forward and take more favorites than dogs, particularly favorites that are not publicly backed because those teams covering would have a double benefit for odds makers. It would allow the dogs/favorites disparity to even out and also they’d make money. I think you’d have to be crazy this week to take a public dog (with one possible exception, which I’ll get into later this week).

I tried to pick as many favorites as I could last week. I just didn’t like a lot of them. This week, I do like a lot more, so I’ll pick more favorites this week. Last week, favorites were 7-6 ATS, which looks like the start of a correction. It might not look like it totally, but remember, favorites were 12-1 SU. 5 of those covers were backdoor, including two ridiculous ones: Jim Harbaugh declining a safety on Thursday Night and the Lions driving for a backdoor cover with 30 seconds left on Monday Night against a 6.5 point spread when they hadn’t scored all night (both went against me on two instances I actually did pick favorites).

You can follow the odds makers’ thought process here. They want favorites to cover, but know the public generally bets favorites and they still want to make money. However, they know if they make a 6-0 team like the Falcons a dog, people are going to go for that because “they’re undefeated and all they have to do is win,” but the odds makers also know how good Reid is off a bye so they’re confident they can get their money while a favorite still simultaneously wins. It’s a trap line. I love the Eagles this week. As long as this line is lower than 3, it’s a pick of the week. It might be a close game, but I’m very confident they will win. For the record, I’m 10-3-1 ATS on picks of the week and co-picks of the week this year.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: PHI 29 ATL 5

Final update: In total agreement here. Always a good sign. In general, my big plays have matched up with the sharps.

Philadelphia Eagles 31 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: Philadelphia -2 (-110) 5 units

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