Falcons

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Chargers, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (2-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-0)

The Chargers are one of just six 2-0 teams left in the NFL. Have they conquered their early season woes? They certainly look good. They’ve used 7 of their last 8 picks in the first 3 rounds on defensive players and it seems to have paid off while veterans like Quentin Jammer and Shaun Phillips seem to be holding things together for one more year. Meanwhile, on offense, Philip Rivers might be the MVP of the league for the first 2 games, leading this team to a 2-0 record despite not having much to throw with. He’s playing behind the league’s worst offensive line in terms of pass block efficiency and he’s doing it while throwing to Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem (just kidding, no one ever throws to Robert Meachem), and one game of Antonio Gates. His running game isn’t helping him much either as none of their backs have really gotten much going in Ryan Mathews’ absence.

The good news for Rivers is that Mathews will be back this week. Mathews is injury prone, but he’s one of the most talented backs in the league and they were planning on using him as an everything back so he should definitely help their offense. Gates is also expected back. The problem is their schedule is getting much harder this week. I don’t fully believe they’ve conquered their early season problems just because they’re 2-0 after beating two crappy teams. They started 4-1 last year beating up on crappy teams before eventually going on a 6 game losing streak once things got harder. Before last year, they were 14-12 from weeks 1-5 under Philip Rivers and 41-11 (41-11!!!) from weeks 6-17. Including last week, they’re actually just 4-7 ATS as favorites during the first 4 weeks of the season in the Philip Rivers era.

This week, the Falcons come to town and they represent by far their toughest opponent so far. Matt Ryan and this passing offense has been as advertised, completing 70.1% of his passes for an average of 7.7 YPA, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions, and the defense has been okay despite the loss of Brent Grimes for the season.

However, I wasn’t overly impressed with the Falcons’ performance last week on Monday Night Football. I felt like they should have been up 20 given how badly the Broncos started and how much they turned the ball over, but they didn’t capitalize like they should have. They lost the yardage total battle and the yards per play battle and if it wasn’t for those 4 turnovers, they probably would have lost at home by double digits. They can’t keep relying on winning the turnover battle to win games.

As a result of that game, they actually have a yards per play differential at even, +0, and that’s my favorite stat and what I feel is the best indicator of how a team has played and how they will play in the future. For what it’s worth though, the Chargers sit at only +0.3, so it’s not like they’re much better. Neither team’s yards per play differential is as good as their record. On top of that, I don’t really trust the Falcons outside on the road, especially on just 5 days rest coming off Monday Night Football.

I’m really torn on this one. I don’t believe the Chargers have gotten rid of their early season problems and I feel they could be due for a stinker now that they’re playing an actually good opponent. However, I wasn’t that impressed with the Falcons on Monday Night Football at home, where they’re best and now they go on the road on short rest. Besides, the Chargers never blew out a team last year in their strong start against an easy schedule like they did last week.

I’m picking the Chargers because the Falcons are one of the heaviest public underdogs you’ll ever see. Not only do I love betting against the public when the action is heavy in one direction (the public is getting killed on these types of games this year), I love it even more when the publicly backed team is an underdog. The Chargers are getting their due respect against a Falcons team that, like they are, is hasn’t really played as well as their record would suggest. I’m taking the home team for a small play.

Public lean: Atlanta (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if San Diego covers)

San Diego Chargers 28 Atlanta Falcons 24

Pick against spread: San Diego -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Falcons lose Brent Grimes for season

stevenlourie Falcons, News

The Falcons came away with a huge win week 1, beating the Chiefs 40-24 to start the season. I know the Chiefs were missing their top two defenders, but the Falcons’ new offense was as advertised and it was a good win for them on the road, where they’ve had some recent trouble. Matt Ryan was 23 of 31 for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, the win was not without losses.

Top cornerback Brent Grimes tore his Achilles and was placed on IR, ending his season. Last season, Grimes was ProFootballFocus’ 3rd ranked cornerback and allowed 25 catches on 56 attempts (44.6%) for 258 yards (4.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 12 passes and committing 1 penalty. He was franchised tagged this offseason, but did not sign a long term deal and likely cost himself millions on any future long term deal with this injury.

The Falcons traded for Asante Samuel this offseason to shore up the #2 cornerback spot as Dunta Robinson had been struggling. Robinson will now have to step into the starting lineup with Chris Owens playing the slot. This is bad news because Robinson has struggled whenever he’s been forced to start and last year he allowed 43 catches on 77 attempts (55.8%) for 734 yards (9.5 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions, while deflecting 5 passes and committing 4 penalties. He was ProFootballFocus’ 90th ranked cornerback out of 98.

Defense was already not a strong suit of the Falcons’ coming into the season and they even struggled to stop the Chiefs mediocre offense before the Grimes injury. The Falcons will score a lot of points and win a lot of games, but they’ll need to play a lot of shoot outs. This injury dampers, to say the least, a very good weekend which featured the Falcons winning big and the Saints losing at home.

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Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Broncos, Falcons

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (1-0)

If it wasn’t for Green Bay/Chicago, this would be the game of the week. Actually, scratch that, Green Bay/Chicago was an incredibly ugly game that should have been the game of the week, but wasn’t because teams only had 3 days to prepare and played much worse than they normally do. I hate this new one game on Thursday every week thing. Thursday Night games are often awful, ugly, hard to watch games and in the case of Green Bay/Chicago, it cost us a chance to see two great teams fight for the division on normal rest.

Anyway, this game is on Monday Night Football, so both teams will be fully prepared and then some. Both teams made huge statement games in their first week back offensively, Peyton Manning by proving that even 4 neck surgeries and an address change couldn’t slow him down, completing 19 of 26 for 253 yards and 2 scores and hanging 31 on the Steelers, while Matt Ryan proved that all the hype about a potential breakout year for him in his 5th year in the league was not just hype as he completed 23 of 31 for 299 yards and 3 scores.

Neither of these teams plays very good defense either. Denver had a strong defensive performance in the opener, but they were the league’s 24th ranked scoring defense in 2011 with essentially the same group of guys. Some of that was on the offenses struggles putting a ton of pressure on the defense and Peyton Manning’s presence will help, but they also ranked 18th in the league last year in terms of points per play allowed. Unless free agent acquisition Tracy Porter can continue to be the shutdown cornerback he was in the opener, the Broncos will be an average defensive team most likely this year, and Porter’s history suggests that his performance last week was probably the best we’re going to see from him this year.

Atlanta, meanwhile, was the league’s 18th ranked scoring defense last year. They did make a significant addition this offseason, bringing in Asante Samuel from Philadelphia to shore up a weakness and that was the cornerback spot opposite Brent Grimes. However, Grimes is now done for the year with a torn Achilles, which obviously hurts them because he’s one of the top cornerbacks in the league when healthy and they had some trouble stopping a mediocre Kansas City offense in the opener even before Grimes went down. In Grimes’ place, Dunta Robinson will step into the starting lineup. He’s been one of the worst starting cornerbacks in the league over the past few years and he’s the reason why they brought in Samuel.

So we know a lot of points are going to be scored, but who wins? As enticing as it is to be able to bet on Peyton Manning as an underdog, 10-4 ATS in this situation since 2006, it’s even more enticing to bet on Matt Ryan at home where he’s 21-8 ATS in his career (25-5 SU). It’s important to remember that the Falcons’ strong offensive day last week came on the road, while the Broncos’ came at home. The Broncos have a huge home field advantage this year with the combination of the thin air and Peyton Manning’s no huddle offense; defenses are just going to get tired and Manning will be able to tear them apart late, like he did against Pittsburgh (9 of 12 for 155 yards and 2 scores). He won’t have that same advantage in Atlanta, so while I like both sides to score a lot of points, it’s a small lean on the home team in this one. This is also another opportunity to “fade” the public, something I love to do. It’s not entirely by design, but I’ve actually faded the public in every pick but 2 so far this week. I also like betting against public underdogs, which Denver is.

Public lean: Denver (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Atlanta covers)

Atlanta Falcons 34 Denver Broncos 27

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (-115) 1 unit

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Atlanta Falcons: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons

Last week: 9 (+4)

Record: 1-0

Their offense was as advertised as they put up 40 on the Chiefs in Kansas City, though the Chiefs were missing their top two defenders. Speaking of missing defenders, the Falcons will be without top cornerback Brent Grimes for the entire season with a torn Achilles, which puts a damper on an otherwise good day for Falcons fans as they won on the road and the Saints lost at home. They’ll score a lot of points, but they’ll need to win a lot of shoot outs because their defense wasn’t exactly a strength even before the Grimes injury.

Studs

QB Matt Ryan: 23 of 31 for 299 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 1 dropped pass, 1 hit as thrown, one throw away, 110.3 adjusted QB rating, 3 rushed for 25 yards and a touchdown, pressured 8 times

WR Julio Jones: 6 catches for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 targets on 34 pass snaps, 8.5 YAC per catch

ROLB Stephen Nicholas: 12 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops on 32 run snaps, 5 receptions for 55 yards allowed on 8 attempts, 1 interception

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon: 7 solo tackles, 6 stops on 32 run snaps, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes, 4 receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown allowed on 6 attempts, 1 pass deflection

SS William Moore: 3 quarterback hurries on 4 blitzes, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles on 32 run snaps, no completions allowed and 1 interception off a deflection

P Matt Bosher: 9 kickoffs, 4 touchbacks, average distance of 68 yards per kickoff, average starting yard line of 20.3, 1 punt for 52 yards, returned for 14 yards, net punting average of 38.0 yards per punt

Duds

RB Michael Turner: 32 yards rushing (15 after contact) on 11 carries and 1 broken tackle, no receptions

CB Dunta Robinson: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 missed tackles, 1 stop on 27 run stop snaps, 4 completions for 56 yards allowed on 4 attempts

DT Peria Jerry: 0 sacks, quarterback hits, or quarterback pressures on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 assisted tackle on 25 run stop snaps

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Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Falcons

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

When I looked at the week 1 games a few months ago, this one stood out to me. There was a reason. I bet the Falcons as road favorites in Chicago week 1 last year and got burned as the Falcons proved that their struggles on the road were more important than their talent edge and lost pretty easily. Obviously, I had that game in mind and I was nervous to bet the Falcons in a similar situation this year week 1, especially in Kansas City, a pretty tough place to play.

The Chiefs aren’t a great team, but they can definitely win some games and pull some upsets if you let them play their game. They have a strong defense which should be even better this season with the emergence of Justin Houston, a budding star at linebacker. The Chiefs have been starved for another pass rushing option after Tamba Hali for years and Houston worked his way into the starting lineup last season and had 6 sacks, 3 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 207 pass rush snaps, good for a rate of 10.6%. It’s no coincidence that they had 20 of their 27 sacks in the 7 games Houston started. His emergence should be able to make up for the dropdown from Brandon Carr to Stanford Routt at cornerback.

On the offensive side of the ball, they don’t have a very good quarterback, but they can run the ball with the best of them with Jamaal Charles coming back and Peyton Hillis coming in at running back behind an improved run blocking offensive line with Eric Winston coming in. They plan to have a very conservative offense and rely on their running game and defense to make Matt Cassel’s life easy. They made the playoffs with this formula in 2010, winning the division with a record of 10-6 and though I didn’t predict it (I don’t think Matt Cassel can keep up the 1.6% interception rate he had in 2010, considering his career rate is 2.9%, excluding 2010), it can definitely happen again in 2012.

However, they’re going to have a very tough time playing good defense and stopping an Atlanta offense that looked very good in the preseason, backing up what many people felt before the preseason, that Matt Ryan and company were about to make the leap with Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. The Chiefs are missing Tamba Hali with suspension, which pretty much defeats the emergence of Houston and they could be without Derrick Johnson and Brandon Flowers. Those are their top 3 defensive players. Without their top pass rusher and possibly without their top cornerback and top middle linebacker, they’re going to have a tough time stopping the Falcons, even at home in Kansas City. I don’t think this line fully takes that into account as it’s only moved 2 points from 2-3 months ago to now.

That’s going to make it tough for the Chiefs to follow their conservative game plan and will force Matt Cassel to have to do more than they would like. Besides, in 2010, when the Chiefs made the playoffs, they didn’t do well against good competition like the Falcons almost certainly are. They went just 2-5 against teams that were .500 or better, including playoffs, and 8-2 against teams that were sub .500. One of their two wins came against the early season Chargers week 1, in a game where Matt Cassel threw for 68 yards and their 3 scores came on a long touchdown run, a pick six, and a punt return touchdown. The Chargers avenged that defeat with a 31-0 victory later in the season. The other came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were starting 3rd string quarterback Todd Bauman. Their 5 losses, meanwhile, came by a combined 88 points. I think they could see another big loss to a tough team this week.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Kansas City Chiefs 13

Pick against spread: Atlanta -3 (+100) 2 units

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Falcons place Corey Peters on PUP

stevenlourie Falcons, News

Corey Peters has missed about 3 months with a stress fracture in his foot and he’ll miss even more time, specifically, the first 6 weeks of the season as the Falcons have transferred him from the active/PUP to the reserve/PUP list. Peters, an important part of the Falcons’ defensive tackle rotation, was slightly below average as a pass rusher and slightly above average as a run stuffer last year, while leading the team in snaps played among defensive tackles (669, including playoffs). He had 3 sacks, 2 quarterback hits, and 13 quarterback pressures on 390 pass rush snaps, for a mediocre 4.6% rate.

He’ll cede snaps to Jonathan Babineaux and Vance Walker, but probably mostly to Peria Jerry. Jerry has been a bust as a 2009 1st round pick thus far in his career and might be on his last chance. He really struggled in limited action last year. This injury will also give either 7th round pick rookie Travian Robertson or undrafted rookie Micanor Regis a chance to not only make the roster, but possibly see action early in the season. If either of them impresses and Jerry can’t bounce back, Jerry could be gone in favor of one of the young guys. Peters’ injury does not sound like one that will make him a candidate for the IR.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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Atlanta Falcons Potential Breakout Player of 2012: Julio Jones

stevenlourie 2012 Breakout Players, 2012 NFL Off-Season, Falcons

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is the part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player for the 2012 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Atlanta Falcons, that player is wide receiver Julio Jones.

I didn’t want to do Julio Jones for the Falcons because everyone is projecting a breakout year for him, but I’ve been on the Julio Jones hype train all offseason, so he’s the pick here. Just know that I thought he’d be great before everyone else did, even if it makes me a football hipster for saying that (which probably means I’ll have to hate myself because I hate hipsters).

As a rookie in a lockout shortened season, Jones still managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games, despite battling hamstring problems all year. Over 16 games, that’s 66 catches for 1180 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those numbers alone would be enough to count as a breakout season for him, but I’m not done.

I don’t think people understand just how impressive what Jones did as a rookie last year in 13 games was. Discounting Jones and AJ Green (another insanely talented receiver and another outlier), since the 2005 NFL Draft, 22 receivers have gone in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. In their rookie years, they have averaged 37 catches for 524 yards and 3 touchdowns. The leader in rookie production among those 22, strangely Dwayne Bowe, who caught 70 passes for 995 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2007.

And this is not a group of busts. This group includes, among others, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Crabtree, Percy Harvin, Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Calvin Johnson, Dwayne Bowe, Robert Meachem, Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Roddy White. Rookie receivers aren’t supposed to be able to do what Jones did last season, especially not in just 13 games as his team’s secondary target (two reasons why I think his rookie year was more impressive than Green, who only had 11 more catches, 88 more yards, and actually 2 fewer touchdowns, despite 20 more targets).

He’s coming off his first full offseason, fully healthy, which he wasn’t last season, his team will be passing more overall this season, and he’ll become the focal point of the offense with Roddy White aging opposite him and a new downfield offense being implemented. Last year, he managed just 7.0 targets per game, as opposed to 10.9 for Roddy White. If that number jumps to 8.5 for him this season, and he plays 16 games and maintains last year’s rates, he’d have 80 catches for 1433 yards and 12 touchdowns and that’s just 1.5 more targets per game, completely reasonable.

Including playoffs, he was targeted 8.5 times per game over his last 6 games last season and he caught 31 passes for 525 yards and 6 touchdowns, while extrapolates to 83 catches for 1400 yards and 16 touchdowns over 16 games. Now you can argue that he probably won’t maintain his same rates, especially not his 17.8 YPC rate, and that he might not play 16 games.

However, Calvin Johnson’s 2nd year stats, 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns, are totally reasonable for him. This guy caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a score in a QUARTER in his 1st preseason game. He’s an incredibly talented receiver and when the season is over, he won’t have just made his 1st Pro Bowl, he’ll get his name mentioned with Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald as the top-3 receivers in the league, pushing out an aging Andre Johnson (only slightly). What the Falcons gave up to trade up for him in the 2011 NFL Draft was not too much to pay for this kid.

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

Atlanta Falcons 2013 Franchise Tag Candidates

stevenlourie Falcons, News

CB Brent Grimes

Grimes was franchised this offseason, but was not extended long term. Grimes is one of the best cornerbacks in the league, allowing just 25 completions on 56 attempts (44.6%) for 258 yards (4.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, while deflecting 12 passes and committing 1 penalty. However, he’d be owed 12.72 million in 2013 if franchised again, which might be too cost prohibitive. However, if he can prove he can stay healthy over a 16 game season this year, the Falcons might not feel they have any other choice, even if it means cutting someone like Dunta Robinson (only 3 million of his 8 million in 2013 is guaranteed), to free up the cap space.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

S William Moore

Safeties have been franchised 4 times in the last 2 seasons because of how cheap the safety franchise tag is (just 6.2 million in 2012). However, I don’t think Moore is quite yet on the level of Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Dashon Goldson, and Michael Griffin, all of whom have been franchised in the last 2 seasons. However, I won’t rule out the 2009 2nd round pick having a breakout season, in which case the Falcons could franchise him to prove it again.

Likelihood: Somewhat unlikely

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Lofa Tatupu to miss entire season, will be cut by Falcons

stevenlourie Falcons, News

Lofa Tatupu is a 3-time Pro Bowler (2005, 2006, 2007), but his career has been derailed by injuries. He was completely out of football last year, but he was still heading into his age 30 season so the Falcons, needing middle linebacker help after losing Curtis Lofton this offseason, signed him to a low risk contract. The idea was to play Tatupu as a two-down run stuffer and then bring 2011 3rd round pick Akeem Dent in during nickel packages.

That plan has been completely derailed now that Tatupu has torn his pectoral muscle lifting weights. It’s worth noting that this is not the first time he’s injured that area in his career. Tatupu will require surgery and miss the entire season. Rather than placing him on IR, the Falcons have outright cut him, eating 600,000 in guaranteed money in the process. It’s definitely fair to question if Tatupu has played his last snap in the NFL. The market for a 31-year-old who hasn’t played a down in 2 years will not be very big next offseason, especially for not one as injury prone as Tatupu.

For the Falcons, this leaves them even thinner at linebacker, starting the inexperienced Akeem Dent at middle linebacker and the mediocre and injury prone Stephen Nicholas at one of the outside linebacker spots. The Falcons recently re-signed Mike Peterson, who is heading into his age 36 season, for linebacker depth, but he’s no lock to even make the roster at his age.

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Falcons’ Lofa Tatupu injures self lifting weights

stevenlourie Falcons, News

Lofa Tatupu is a 3-time Pro-Bowler, making it in 2005, 2006, and 2007. However, his career was derailed by injuries to the point where he was completely out of football last year. Still only heading into his age 30 season, the Falcons took a chance on him this offseason as a two down run stuffer, to compliment 2011 3rd round pick Akeem Dent.

However, it appears those plans have been derailed. Tatupu injured his pectoral while lifting weights and has been ruled out, at least, for the start of Training Camp. Tatupu will visit Dr. James Andrews on Monday, never a good sign, especially for someone with a laundry list of injury problems already. He just can’t stay healthy.

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