Falcons

Jerry Rice praises Falcons’ Julio Jones

stevenlourie Falcons, News

While he was on Sportscenter today, Hall of Fame wide receiver Jerry Rice named Julio Jones as the receiver who will have a breakout year this season. Normally, things like this are not newsworthy, but if you’re a receiver, there isn’t anyone’s praise you want more than Jerry Rice’s. Jones has unlimited athletic talent and caught 54 passes for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns last season in 13 games, good for 66 catches for 1180 yards and 10 touchdowns over 16 games. That was despite struggling through injuries all year and being a rookie off a lockout shortened offseason.

All you have to do is look at his final 5 games to see the kind of upside he has. He caught 24 passes for 461 yards and 6 touchdowns in those 5 games. Last year, he was the clear #2 to Roddy White, averaging 7.0 targets per game, as opposed to 10.9 per game by Roddy White. With Dirk Koetter coming in and changing the offense to a more downfield passing offense, Jones, a young possession receiver, should see more targets this year and White, an aging possession receiver, should see less. This makes sense as their offense was much more efficient last year when they threw to Jones last year (10.5 YPA) than when they threw to White (7.4 YPA). I second Rice’s prediction that Jones will have a breakout season. He’s my #5 fantasy receiver.

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Falcons, Brent Grimes working on extension ahead of deadline

stevenlourie Falcons, News

Though there has been little to no activity between the two sides since Brent Grimes signed his 10.281 million dollar tender in April, ESPN.com’s Paul Yasinskas says that he wouldn’t “rule out” an extension for Brent Grimes from the Falcons before next Monday’s deadline for franchise players to sign long term deals.

Grimes was one of the league’s top cornerbacks last year, allowing just 25 completions on 56 attempts (44.6%) for 258 yards (4.6 YPA), 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 12 deflections, and one penalty. He ranked 3rd among all cornerback on ProFootballFocus. However, the Falcons’ hesitance to do a long term deal with Grimes is likely due to Grimes’ injury history and the fact that the Falcons are already paying significant money to two other cornerbacks, Dunta Robinson and Asante Samuel. Still, with only 2.8 million of cap space, the Falcons have financial motivation to reduce Grimes’ 10.281 million dollar cap number for 2012.

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Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Projections

stevenlourie 2012 Fantasy Football Preseason, 2012 Team Fantasy Football Previews, Falcons

QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta)

8/27/12: I was worried about how Matt Ryan would do in the Falcons’ new offense because it didn’t seem to fit his skill set. I don’t like to overreact to the preseason, but Ryan has completed 45 of 60 (75.0%) for 549 yards (9.2 YPA), 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Only Russell Wilson has a higher QB rating than him. He’s got plenty of upside in the Falcons’ new explosive offense and plenty of weapons around him. He looks ready for a career year.

7/26/12: Again, nothing new to report here, but when I was doing Atlanta’s season preview, I got a better feel for the type of season we can expect from Ryan this year. He’ll be asked to throw downfield for often and throw more often overall, which should lead to a career high in yards, but also to a career high in interceptions and a career low in completion percentage. Ryan is one of the least accurate deep throwers in the NFL over his career, completing just 31.9% of his passes that go 20+ yards in the air in his career, including 25% last year. This is opposed to 64.4% on the rest of his throws.

Matt Ryan is nothing, but consistent. And boring. But, you can call it consistent. In 2010, he had 3705 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. In 2011, 4177 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. He should have a similar season this year, only slightly better as I’m projecting a breakout season from Julio Jones.

Projection: 4430 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 13 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdowns (291 pts standard/353 pts in 6 pt TD leagues)

RB Michael Turner (Atlanta)

There was some talk about the Falcons cutting or trading Turner, who turned 30 this offseason. Instead, they’ll just be reducing his workload, which Mike Smith himself said. The coaching staff is really high on Jacquizz Rodgers, who figures to see more of the field in his 2nd year. Meanwhile, Turner is on the wrong side of 30 and has 300+ carries in 3 of his last 4 seasons. I’ll let someone else overdraft him.

Projection: 200 carries 900 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 12 catches 100 receiving yards (160 pts standard/172 pts PPR)

RB Jacquizz Rodgers (Atlanta)

Michael Turner’s loss is Jacquizz Rodgers’ gain. The coaching staff loves him and will get him involved as more than just a passing down back this season. He’ll be a nice change of pace back to Turner and see a good amount of carries. He’ll also have a lot of catches. Given Turner’s age and mileage, there’s nothing but upside with Rodgers.

Projection: 130 carries 560 rushing yards 4 total touchdowns 40 catches 310 receiving yards (111 pts standard/151 pts PPR)

WR Julio Jones (Atlanta)

8/13/12: I don’t like to overreact to preseason games, but Julio Jones is insane. He caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a score in his 1st preseason game in only one quarter of play. I had him “conservatively” ranked as my #5 wide receiver, but it appears that was even too low for him. Calvin Johnson’s 2nd year stats, 78 catches for 1331 yards and 12 touchdowns, are not out of reach for him.

As a rookie in a lockout shortened season, Jones still managed 54 catches for 959 yards and 8 touchdowns in 13 games, despite battling hamstring problems all year. Over 16 games, that’s 66 catches for 1180 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his last 5 games, when he finally looked healthy, he had 24 catches for 461 yards and 6 touchdowns. With a full offseason, Jones looks poised for a breakout season now that’s healthy.

Projection: 76 catches 1280 receiving yards 12 receiving touchdowns (200 pts standard/276 pts PPR)

WR Roddy White (Atlanta)

8/13/12: Any positive for Jones has to be a negative for White, who is heading into his age 31 season and will be a smaller part of the offense last year. Leading the league in targets last year, White is almost purely a volume receiver at this point in his career and he should see a much smaller volume of targets go his way as long as Julio is playing like this.

Julio Jones’ gain will be Roddy White’s loss this season. White is 31 in November and coming off a season in which he led the league in drops. He also led the league in targets, a number that should go down this season with Julio Jones’ emergence. He’ll have to be more efficient to match his numbers from 2011 and I don’t think he will be.

Projection: 84 catches 1000 receiving yards 7 receiving touchdowns (142 pts standard/226 pts PPR)

TE Tony Gonzalez (Atlanta)

Tony Gonzalez inexplicably had an amazing season at the age of 35 last season with 80 catches for 875 yards and 7 touchdowns despite looking done the year before. However, there’s only downside with him now. He’s 36 and less than 2 years removed from 70 catches for 656 yards and 6 touchdowns. I’d stay away.

Projection: 65 catches 670 receiving yards 6 receiving touchdowns (103 pts standard/168 pts PPR)

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